Jane!

Jane!

Jane!

Hello Jane

Ola.

We in this house are pleased that we no longer live in Cali, and have come home to our native land where we were born. We have paid our dues in the fast and ridculous track.

California in play? Happy to be voting here. Have seen very few signs, mostly for Obama, nothing in the mail so far.

OMG! Joni Mitchell! I grew up in NYC listening to her, this one was especially one of favorites. Thanks, Jane. Bring back lotsa great memories from Manhattan when I was young… You know, those halcyon days.

It’s nice to finally have California in play. I always thought it was kinda silly to have the largest state not matter at all. Hurray for us !

They Paved Paradise is another one of my Joni Mitchell favorites…

Bon apres midi, Jane…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPIuIwSJ41s

Two nice young men just came to my California door, canvassing for Obama. I told them my primary concern was to get the Republicans out of the White House, and I was trying to decide who had the best chance of doing that. A few minutes ago, Yahoo news was running a headline that Hillary wanted to garnish wages for those who wouldn’t buy health insurance; that looked like a problem for her. But I just checked back, and now the only visible Hillary headline reads “Clintons address black voters’ concerns”. Hmmmm.

I thought this stat in the WaPo/ABC was interesting:

Do you “strongly” support your candidate?
Hillary supporters - 62% strongly
Obama supporters - 49% strongly

I thought it would have been just the opposite result.

One of the interesting aspects of this is that the polls may not reflect how many delegates are won. Apparently the rules in California are that there are some even districts and some odd districts. Even districts have 2, 4…delegates. Odd districts have 1, 3 delegates…based upon population. In “even” districts a delegate differential of 15% will likely result in a split of the delegates. Thus a 57%-43% split will not result in more delegates accruing to the winner. But in the odd districts even a 50.5 vs. 49.5 winner may get 2 delegates to 1 for the other candidates 1 delegate. Where there is only one delegate available…it’s essentiallly “winner take one”. Thus it’s the odd districts that will actually matter more. I’ve looked at the delegate map and I have to say that this seems to me to favor Obama…East Bay, South Central LA, Sacramento City…seem to have a lot of odd districts.

What an amazing primary election. Should be a very exciting night.

Hill in my town today…

Joni Mitchell was right. And we have the CO2 to prove it.

egregious, I haven’t seen signs for democrats either. Lots of Ron Paul and Mitt Romney though.

I think many Obama supporters may be transplanted Edwards supporters who are still not “strongly” in the Obama camp. Like me, they may still be yearning for the man who isn’t there.

Modern California. The land of Ronald Reagan, Pete Wilson, George Deukmejian, Arnold Schwarzeneggar and three-bedroom one bath million dollar homes.

A few minutes ago, Yahoo news was running a headline that Hillary wanted to garnish wages for those who wouldn’t buy health insurance; that looked like a problem for her. But I just checked back, and now the only visible Hillary headline reads “Clintons address black voters’ concerns”. Hmmmm.
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I suspect that was to reinforce the “Harry and Louise” mailer that was sent out by the Obama campaign.

I have not seen even one political sign. Amazing.

wake me when i can help vote out pelosi

My, you make it sound so inviting! 3 bedrooms and 1 bath? Even our little house has 2 baths…

Hopefully Cali will vote for change over so called experience.

Does that principle apply to teachers?

My main reservation about Obama (now that Edwards is unavailable)
is that Andrew Sullivan is a big fan. Given Sullivan’s disastrous
past political love life (Thatcher, Reagan, Blair, Bush, Rumsfeld, Cheney,…),
I am concerned.

Pretending to believe that corporations are willing to regulate themselves, Republicans are gutting environmental regulations, poisoning our air, water and the food we eat (during a time of emergency global ice melt). AND the media and the people want to make this into a personality contest. It is important that Republicans are not reselected by electronic voting machines and fools.

Meanwhile, it looks like MN has been wired for Obama on so-called tsunami Tuesday…

I don’t quite understand the question. ;0)

Moved to LA in 57 left in 63 and most of my family stayed there. Great place to visit when the surf is decent at the Manhattan Beach Pier.

There’s a dkos diary discussing this and apparently Hillary said this on Stephanapolis … I wasn’t watching so not sure but the account suggests she was pushed on the mandate issue and on the third pass said enforcement would include garnishing wages.

The thinking now has to be WHO CAN WIN …..
the niceties are over. This is the whole ballgame right here and we must take the WH.

Ever got to POP?

Modern California. The land of Ronald Reagan, Pete Wilson, George Deukmejian, Arnold Schwarzeneggar and three-bedroom one bath million dollar homes.

That’s Southern CA. (Up here most of the million dollar houses have at least two baths.)

Is the principle that “change” is better than “experience” apply to teachers?

Here is something on the wacky odd-even delegate issue. BTW the number of delegates a Congressional district may allocate goes up to seven/district (I think based upon the Democratic votes in the last Presidential election, but perhaps registration).

Odd-Even Delegates in California

Here’s a Color-coded Map of the Odd vs. Even Delegate Districts.

It seems to me that one could go batty with such efforts as to where to allocate resources. Obviously if one was competing in an even district of four delegates it might not behoove one to actually try to win. But in a five or three it could result in a delegate differential.

In a six or seven there are certain “threshhold points” that have similar delegate shifts, so some even delegate counts are important in evens. But in a very close race a 6 will split 3-3, but a 5 will go 2-3, a seven will go 3-4. Take enough of the “odds” and you could walk away with 10-20 more delegates…even though the other candidate wins a majority of the vote statewide.

Are you in the Bay Area?

It is important that Republicans are not reselected by electronic voting machines and fools.

Amen.

Here’s a good Frank Rich column
Ask Not What J.F.K. Can Do for Obama

What is exciting is that Arizona is in play too….. for ever the CW is that AZ is a deep red state so they write it off without trying.

Would be really great if McCain lost his home state :)

Funny! I was being evaluated on Thursday, and I spent an entire 20 minutes preparing. When I was 23 and first teaching I would spend six hours. Thursday’s lesson was much better too.

Yup.

clinton push polling obama in california?

http://latimesblogs.latimes.co.....ews-p.html

I need a short break from politics… on to Superbowl!!! *G*

There are a few Romney signs out there. It’s raining. Californians don’t go ANYWHERE when it rains

Musician man, Bela Fleck, lubes my gears.

Watch that Velveeta! *g*

Most are sayin McCain’s a lock. Goopers have decided he can win.

I predict Hillary will win California and most everything else.

I have friends in Sausalito and they have a three-bath four-bedroom house…They’re both hedge-fund specialists…

Not supposed to rain on Tuesday in the Bay Area.

I suppose I am being dense today. But I still am unclear on the question. Are you saying get rid of experienced teachers and replace them with new ones? And that would make my argument for political change consistent? Help me out here.

and most everything else.

Oh yeah? Says who?

It’s not supposed to be raining HERE- NOW. (San Diego)

Sullivan would be the first to admit to making a mistake in backing someone undeserving support. A rarity in today’s atmosphere IMO.

Yep.

“Oh it gets so lonely
When you’re walking
And the streets are full of strangers….” kind of like being a Hillary supporter in the left-wing blogosphere lately.

Watch that Velveeta!

I think it’s more like Brie and caviar… Some of us watch Superbowl in style, especially if there’s a MN Viking in the room…*g*

They Paved Paradise is another one of my Joni Mitchell favorites…

Actually titled “Big Yellow Taxi” and written by the most famous Native American songstress, Buffy Sainte-Marie.

There’s discussion of the issue and a link on the prior post. I don’t think it’s as harsh as the short headline. She indicated that those who could not afford medical care, it would be supplied. Only those who could afford, and chose not too, would be forced by garnishment or payroll deduction. Go ahead, Cinnamon, explain “sponge libertarians” again.

I’m not following eCAHN either on this one. Usually I know what she’s talking about…*g*

I’ve been seeing signs in here in the Santa Cruz mountains, Ron Paul and Barack Obama signs are the most frequent.

I won’t be voting on Tuesday. This year the Congressional race in my home state needs my vote than any of the races or propositions here in California. Gretchen needs to defeat Baron. Because the Indiana primary is in May it means my vote for president will likely be moot (I hope because Obama has wrapped it up by then).

Well, there you go - California weather.

Not a good photo of Hillary there. Looks like the Grinch who Stole X-mas.

I think you can safely say that they were “formerly” million dollar homes. Cal has turned into foreclosure village. You can’t drive down a residential street without seeing “for sale” with “price reduced” signs tacked onto them.

Of course of course…Thanks! It’s been so long ago…I’m getting old… (But at least you knew the song I was talking about.)

I’m in Mountain View and have lived here (in my 1-bath house) for a long time. No way I could afford to buy a house here now, let alone in Sausalito.

Brie and caviar I can see! Superbowl, not so much.

Hill is my town now. But I don’t the time of day for her…

You needn’t worry. One way or another, Hillary is our ‘future,’ Hillary is our ‘fate.’

Not a good photo of Hillary there. Looks like the Grinch who Stole X-mas.

Yeah, especially when it’s a YouTube of Joni Mitchell, makes HRC really look like hell… /s

I was referring to Rosalind at 45 - the LA Times Clinton push poll allegation has an unflattering Hillary Clinton photo.

The trend is Obama’s Friend

I’m more than a bit leery of the daily tracking polls, but the trend is clear–Obama is screaming upward and has been for some time. Looking at the new polls, don’t forget the margin of error. I haven’t looked but they are typically in the neighborhood of 3%-4%. This means that in several cases these polls are showing considerable overlap. In other words, impossible to say statistically who is ahead and who behind.

Superbowl, not so much.

Actually we just watch the commercials, interrupted by the plays…then we take breaks for the caviar and brie and red wine. Some drink beer. Me, not so much. That went out with my college days.

I’m with you there, on watching the commercials rather than the game. Except beer is involved here to a limited degree!

Meanwhile, this sick f*ck needs to get out of office like yesterday:

Filed at 4:03 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON (AP) — In the nation’s first-ever $3 trillion budget, President Bush seeks to seal his legacy of promoting a strong defense to fight terrorism and tax cuts to spur the economy. Democrats, who control Congress, are pledging fierce opposition to Bush’s final spending plan — perhaps even until the next president takes office.

The 2009 spending plan sent to Congress on Monday will project huge budget deficits, around $400 billion for this year and next and more than double the 2007 deficit of $163 billion. But even those estimates could prove too low given the rapidly weakening economy and the total costs of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which Bush does not include in his request for the budget year beginning Oct. 1.

Sounds good! Especially the red wine. I got (almost) all my bad habits taken away from me after a stint in the ER last summer, but remember my more decadent days fondly.

Emptywheel hooks up Jeffrey Feldman and his take on the Obama/Clinton situation.

Wow.. Joni. Great pick.

GObama is trending up and Hillary is sliding down the slippery slope.

Wrong…it was written by Joni Mitchell. You’re right about the title, though.

I can’t WAIT to read all the sites and papers come Wen. morning. A WHOLE lotta heads are jes gon EXPLODE!!!!!!!

Don’t bet on it. She does not energize the young, many Indys and this Democrat, who is a white women in her target age group.

The Obama campaign is swamping our household with inquiries, reminders, calls, emails, and home visits. We had an Obama precinct campaign ring the doorbell in the pouring rain yesterday, checking to see if we knew where to vote and for whom. Within an hour, I had an email invite to see MIchelle Obama speak in San Jose; this on top of previous invites to see Ted Kennedy in Oakland and John Kerry around the corner at Everett Middle School in San Francisco. That afternoon, my fiance got a call from another Obama precinct captain, who told him all about his exciting time in Iowa roadtripping for caucus-goers, with the hope we’d vote for his man.

We voted early for Edwards, but wow, it is exciting to live in a primary state that counts this year. What is everyone else seeing? I mean as regular voters, not as Lake denizens. I’m trying to sort out my voter impressions from my web-izen impressions.

We’re going out for a walk now; I’m interested to see if people are campaigning in the neighborhood at the usual places.

Yea, in two frickin hours. Now they have turned THIS into a goddam American Idol freakshow. Just shoot me.

Ooops. made a boo-boo…Joni DID write “Big Yellow Taxi” (though Buffy performed it and had a hit with it). Buffy wrote the title track to that Joni Mitchell album…”Circle Game”. A bit of mutual admiration from fellow Canadians! Buffy also wrote that big hit for Donovan “Universal Soldier” and many other important protest songs dealing with war, Native American, labor and womens rights issues.

She’s also a talented visual artist!

Was just looking at polls at Americablog and noted that the economy was the most important - far above the Iraq situation. Was surprised how wide the margin was. Don’t think we can energize the economy until we stop the spending on the war over there. IMO

I’m in Mountain View

Are you a Googler on campus?

Another graph from pollster. For the first time, Obama popped a poll above Clinton’s trend line in California.

Obamzilla.

I don’t vote until March 5, and it probably won’t matter by then. Still I have mixed feelings. All things considered, I think I would chose experience over speaking ability and general idealism, given our present complex difficulties. Still, I remember and really got caught up in the JFK idealism and have often complained that young people are too cynical. So, I can understand either way.

I think many Obama supporters may be transplanted Edwards supporters who are still not “strongly” in the Obama camp. Like me, they may still be yearning for the man who isn’t there.
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Or men. I went to Edwards when Dodd dropped out. It still infuriates me that my preferred candidates dropped out on the basis of the opinions of a few people in IA and NH, before I or anybody else in this most populous (?) state had a chance to vote. Now I just want somebody who can beat the republicans.

Don’t bet on it. She does not energize the young, many Indys and this Democrat, who is a white women in her target age group.

Or this one. But I’d vote for her if I thought she had the better chance of winning.

Pacific Ocean Park or Pay One Price, oh yea. Did you ever see Dogtown and Zboys where they surfed the old pilings? Even go to “The Plunge” in Long Beach, a massive saltwater pool. And then there was the Hermosa Biltmore. In the summer of 66 the hotel was closed but there was a “teenage” club in the basement where thet had bands and free popcorn!

NYC here.

No land lines, so no calls.

I gave only to Edwards campaign so no email.

I throw out political snail mail unopened in the trash basket in the mail room.

I don’t watch commercial TV.

No lawns in midtown Manhattan.

You sure wouldn’t know there’s a primary on Tues. from my life.

I did catch an Obama commercial snippet before changing channel last night.

To be fair, I haven’t looked at the polls but would assume that because it’s Hillary’s home territory, probably neither is making much effort here.

Once again, my vote doesn’t make a difference.

I had been renting in Mountain View prior to buying a house in the mountains. Prices have tended to be lower because a lot of people don’t like driving on mountain roads. Personally I enjoy roads with curves, more on motorcycle than in a cage, but even on four wheels it’s fun.

I’ve been seeing signs in here in the Santa Cruz mountains, Ron Paul and Barack Obama signs are the most frequent.

I won’t be voting on Tuesday. This year the Congressional race in my home state needs my vote than any of the races or propositions here in California. Gretchen needs to defeat Baron. Because the Indiana primary is in May it means my vote for president will likely be moot (I hope because Obama has wrapped it up by then).

Bubba should have STFU:

Filed at 4:06 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton and her husband visited predominantly black churches Sunday, hoping to ease resentment among a core constituency group that felt her campaign disparaged the achievements of presidential rival Barack Obama.

Modern California. The land of Ronald Reagan, Pete Wilson, George Deukmejian, Arnold Schwarzeneggar and three-bedroom one bath million dollar homes.

an’ 5 acre Ranches

POP

No lawns in midtown Manhattan.

You got that right. But you must have a lawn in your country home, coz once during a weekday thread you said something was on your front lawn…*g*

No, unfortunately!

If I am following what you are asking, and if I said yes, then wouldn’t it follow I would have to say (to be consistent) that we would need to replace everybody. And of course then I would be put into a position of being charged with being ludicrous.

The short answer is that arguing for political change, in my view, is not the same as advocating that all experienced teachers (or members of any profession for that matter) be replaced. Perhaps I’m still missing your point. May I gently suggest you consider reformulating the inquiry? Incidentally, Lahoma and I read with interset your comments here. And discuss them. ;0)

Considering I wanted to vote for Edwards, and have said all along I’d vote for Hillary or Obama if they were the candidate, I look at Tuesday as practice for November. My friends here in NJ who are activists are breaking for Obama now that Edwards is gone.

Bubba should have STFU:

Not sure where you got your link title from the info in the article linked. Or is this just a rhetorical statement about the former president in general?

…Democrats, who control Congress, are pledging fierce opposition…

“fierce opposition” for the jelly-fish dems led by Pelosi/Hoyer means (1) holding a press conference (2) saying stirring things like “we need bi-partisan support of legislation” and then (3) caving in and giving the retarded boy-king everything he wants followed by a press conference trumpeting the bi-partisan achievement.

Now that’s some fiercesome opposition!

I might be swayed too, but every indicator shows her viewed as polarizing with higher negatives in the GE than Obama. Obama gets higher percentages in every matchup with the GOP. If we really want a DEM in ‘08, why would we risk Hillary with her baggage?

First time I went to POP was I believe, in 1956. Fond memories. One of my aunt and uncles lived in Redondo at the time. ;0)

I agree, a consistant trend (above the statistical noise) is more telling than static polls. Also if you see a trend in the same polls…ones that use the same methodology. A lot of people compare one poll to another and think that the poll shows a gain or a loss…but ignore the fact that one poll may be using “registered voters”, another “probable voters” (which is an abstract based on prior voting patterns, or age, or some other set of criteria), and a third just on the strength of committment.

There are all sorts of other issues…such as whether people who respond to a poll have already voted by absentee ballot, and the organization to get voters TO the polls.

The last minute polls have been very “off” this year. They’ve mispredicted just about every primary…underestimating the Obama turnout in SC (although they indicated such a trend that way). They blew his victory (and Huckabees) in Iowa. They noted the trend, but not the closeness of the race in NH for Obama, but failed to predict McCains victory. Obama has consistently done better than the polls have suggested (e.g. Nevada) so it may be that the formulas are ignoring the turnout by younger voters.

I see a lot of Obama buttons and signs, and very little for Clinton…but then again, I’m on a college campus most of the day and live in an urban area. Maybe the burbs are more Clintonesque in Sacramento.

I didn’t go to the country this weekend, and as of last weekend there were no signs visible. Or put differently, my neighbors around the corner who’re very liberal have had an “IMPEACH” sign on their lawn forever, and as they are obsessive local anti-development folks, they recently added a “Save the Lakes” sign.

The only political signs I remember seeing are for local offices from mid-Oct to election day. (There’s actually a regulation about early the signs can go up. Don’t know if there’s one for primaries.)

South Bay Surfers Rule. My mom lived in Torrance until she passed away and my sis lives right off Sepulveda in Hawthorne. . round round get a round I get around

You answered. I was just asking you to reflect on whether there were any other areas where experience would be considered a negative. (Getting rid of incompetents with experience always allowed.) And to set those reflections against your desire for change.

Kiddo and I will be voting for Obama.

L.

There is a hand painted sign I saw on a pole today in Athens

McCain vs Clinton
WTF?

The only thing I’ve seen political was a group of suburbanites standing out on a corner in Diamond Bar waving Romney signs. Romney’s ad he is running against Hillary here portrays himself as being the GOP candidate that can run the country because Hillary has never run anything (except a better campaign than him) and the purpose of the ad I think is to elevate himself as the GOP frontrunner he is not.

I might be swayed too, but every indicator shows her viewed as polarizing with higher negatives in the GE than Obama. Obama gets higher percentages in every matchup with the GOP. If we really want a DEM in ‘08, why would we risk Hillary with her baggage?

I’m sort of coming around to that opinion.

Well, you did forget about the strongly worded letter. Now that’s some really fierce opposition…

Or is this just a rhetorical statement about the former president in general?

In a word, yes.

How bout a pop my space page

MY space

McCain vs Clinton
WTF?

That person knows something you don’t know…can see into the future.

Husband-wife team, one voting for McCain in the R primary, and one for Clinton in the D primary?