Finally, much too late to do anything about it, somebody else last week pointed out what I mentioned weeks ago:
… But the mainstream media, long determined to ignore Edwards and keep this a feisty, feuding two-person race, is not letting him show his stuff where it currently counts–against McCain.
Thursday night, Tim Russert was oohing over how close a McCain-Obama or McCain-Hillary race would be: the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal head-to-head match-up poll shows McCain beating Hillary by two points and tying with Obama; Obama and Hillary each clobbered Romney, Giuliani, and Huckabee. When I saw that Edwards wasn’t part of the six-pol poll, my jaded jaw almost dropped.
Though I shouldn’t have been surprised. CNN also disappeared the former North Carolina senator from its most recent (mid-January) head-to-head poll–even though Edwards was the only Dem to beat McCain in its previous (mid-December) match-up. At the time, CNN polling director Keating Holland wrote, "Edwards is the only Democrat who beats all four Republicans, and McCain is the only Republican who beats any of the three Democrats. Some might argue this shows that they are the most electable candidates in their respective parties."
Why wouldn’t CNN include its own previous chart-topper? Don’t know. CNN wouldn’t return my calls.
Interestingly, Edwards (with twenty-six delegates per MyDD’s delegate counter in the sidebar) had been doing much better on the Democratic side than the also-withdrawn media darlings Giuliani (with no delegates whatsoever) and Thompson (with eleven) have been on the Republican side — which makes the press treatment of Edwards explainable only if you take into account the corporate media’s pro-GOP and anti-populist bias.
The latest Rasmussen head-to-heads now show McCain beating Obama by six and Clinton by eight. Other polls show similar results. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, conducted about a week ago, has McCain beating Hillary Clinton by 2 points, 46%-44%. This is a three point improvement for McCain, and a 3 percent dip for Clinton. Obama ties McCain at 42%, after having led him by 6 in the previous poll. And in the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted two weeks ago, McCain beats Clinton by 3, 50% to 47% — even though Clinton had led him by 6 in the previous poll. Obama loses to McCain by 5, even though he had led by 3 in the previous poll.
The latest set of national h-2-h polls from RCP are, when averaged out, slightly kinder to the Dems as they include the Dem-friendly LAT and CNN polls, but still show McCain edging both Hillary and Obama.
The bottom line: DON’T BE COMPLACENT. This is NOT a guaranteed win for the Dems this year. McCain is the GOP’s strongest guy in the general. Period. (It’s the biggest reason why I backed Democrats in Michigan crossing over to vote for Mitt Romney: So he’d stay in the race and with luck eventually win the GOP nomination.)
Why is McCain so strong in the general? Because too many liberals, moderates, and antiwar people think he’s one of them. Rasmussen’s polling bears this out, showing that he does a better job of picking up swing voters than Hillary or Obama.
We HAVE to hammer McCain hard, and hammer him often, to keep him from winning the nomination, or at least soften him up for the general. The best way to do that is to constantly point out how he talks "tough" but always falls in line behind Bush, especially on Iraq and Iran. Otherwise we’re going to be in for a very grim surprise come November.
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We’re stuffing and baking McCrazy today? Awesome!!!
I’m puzzled by the polls that show McCain beating Obama by less than he beats Hillary. The 70% moveon vote for Obama would seem to make him the weaker candidate in the general election.
Unfortunately, far too many people who self-identify as “independants” think St. John is a great compromise candidate. We need to pound on his pledge to stay in Iraq for 100 years. That’s what’s going to pry them away.
Plus! I think a lot could be done with a half-dozen “The Hug” floats to follow McCain around at campaign events.
Sadly, none of this surprises me. ;-(
Corporate media has decided who they want to be the next president and so far it seems to be working. McCain was DOA a few months ago and was revived by the media. Edwards, the Dem most likely to have the “easiest” time in a general election was trivialized and ignored. Hillary is being hammered during the primary and Obama is being “fluffed”. Corporate media is saving all of the Obama venom for the general election. It will be a very tough go for the Dems to retake the WH.
There’s lots of bad stuff about McCain that the media is ignoring because they have such a crush on him. It will be up to us all to expose everything we can and spread the word as far as we can.
As I mentioned on a thread last night, my conservative, but well informed, reasonable friend, will vote for Hillary over McCain, but McCain over Obama. (BTW, he’s not thrilled with any of them.) The deciding factor for him is experience. He just doesn’t trust Obama to handle world problems in a responsibile way. He is unimpressed by Obama’s “charisma,” and message of new beginning. He’s a pragmatist. Don’t think there’s any way of moving him if Obama’s the D candidate.
It always seemed to me that McCain was the most dangerous candidate to Democrats. However, in 2000 and after, I had some admiration for McCain among Republicans, primarily because he took some prinicpled stands against his party and, although a hawk, he was not a chicken hawk.
However, in the current campaign, he appears much more contrived than he did in 2000. He seems tired and ill, and many of his expressions and arm movements are inappropriate. He smiles when he shouldn’t and raises a fist a few seconds after he made a verbal point. In the last debate, with the issue over editorial endorsements, he killed Romney on the issue, but his chuckling while making adversarial points looked really mean spirited. I’m not so sure he will have the same appeal to independents that he used to have, when seen against either of the two Democrats.
On what planet does any sane person believe ANY repug will beat ANY Dem. this election?
Hi PW…. from AZ … we want to get the word out on just how terrible McCain will be…
1. VERY anti-choice so you women… listen up to that…
2. 100 years of war … that is ok with him
3. More wars…. ya throw that on top of the 100 years war
4. One of the Keating Five… he was deep into the S&L scandal and his actions allowed others to skate
5. Played pattycake with Cindy while his first wife was recovering from a major accident. The first wife who raised their children and held things together while McCain was a POW.
6. THE original Flip-Flopper… lets see…. thought about leaving the Repug party in 2001….. hated the fundies and now he sucks up to fundies…. he wanted comprehensive immigration reform and now he denies it
7. His townhall events are limited admission JUST like someone we know…
And we can’t leave out the very deeply hidden racism that does exist. We’re fooling ourselves if we thing this is a post-racist society.
The CM is pushing Obama during the primary. How much coverage has Rezko gotten or Kenya. I’ll bet that during the general we will get, in excruciating detail, all of Obama’s Chicago political career. I think for Obama to take the approach that he barely knew Rezko is a huge mistake.
Hi, PW! Good to see you over at Scienceblogs.
Sorry to go OT so quickly.. but I’m wondering if anyone else commenting or lurking is planning to join the cluster that will be downtown Mpls for Obama’s visit?
Are you related to Thomas Dewey by any chance?
I agree that Obama’s unfavorables can only go up, and by a lot, in the general. As for the specifics you mention, Rezko doesn’t seem much worse than what most politicians have done. As for Kenya, that scares the pants off me because it’s just the sort of mess a well meaning but naive & unknowledgeable person would get himself into. But I doubt the average voter would understand it.
What we are looking for is a combination of the Kiss Float and the Macaca video…. The guys who started the Recall McCain process here are looking for people to video McCain events looking for things.
OH… btw he is VERY raciest and well known to throw out those words but the media cuts that out…..
The REAL McCain
No question, but I think post LBJ most of the voters who would not vote for a black are now concentrated in the Republican party and those votes aren’t in play anyway. I think “no woman” is probably a bigger factor by a small percentage.
I think that would be This Planet Earth.
I think the point is, to use a football metaphor, On Any Sunday.
I agree with Phoenix Woman that we have to be unrelentless in our support of whichever Dem candidate.
ps – I actually cried real tears when I read the Thank You email from Edwards in my inbox this week.
Common sense (progressive) sisters and brothers: now is the time to work hard for change. To this end there are many ways to work (I’m not telling you something perhaps most of you know better than me). We have to defeat the Republicans. I am under the impression that each of you precious souls understands what looms ahead if come next January, another cog of the GOP mess again captures the White House. John Edwards, in this house we love you and Elizabeth. It is essential that Mr. McCain be stopped.
Democrats, “I got my mind set on you” next November.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmpG-ba4syQ
Lahoma and i bid you a very good Saturday.
It’s the temper.
He needs to be goaded into losing his temper big time and it needs to be caught on tape.
I listen to conservative talk radio in my car, now that Air America exists no longer in San Diego. Limbaugh, Hannity, and John and Ken (LA) hate McCain, and they are doing everything they can to get their listeners to vote for Romney. Mainly it’s because of McCain’s stand on immigration.
well, this is not good news. In and of itself and because of the impact it could have on the general election. we keep hearing the jesus freaks don’t liike McCain but if you get ‘em out to the polls, no tellin’ what they’ll do. Don’t think it’ll matter that much but elections here have been known to be close. Fcator in the miscellaneous fucking up at the polls, a goofball Rethug state AG who will be purging voter rolls, and the impact it could have on races other than prez that are close, and it’s not good news.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com…..5869.story
Thank you, thank you, thank you, PW. I have been so frustrated about the media’s blackout on Edwards–the sin of omission. I said on my blog that they may come to rue the day…after all, Edwards was a proven champion against the corporatists long before he entered public service.
I hope the day comes when they wish–bigtime–that they hadn’t stood in the way of his reaching the Oval.
We all must reach beyond our frustration and keep up the drumbeat of pushback…here, on our own sites, and most importantly at every opportunity out in the “Real” world.
Enough of the Orwellian propaganda via the Tweetymedia.
We had a small go round with tempers yesterday. I kept expecting Rudy to blow up and he never did. Don’t think McCain will either. (May have something to do with endorphins and/or adrenalin that gets released when you’re in a prez run.) So we should stop holding our breath, and look for something more substantive.
I agree..there is no there..there with Rezko..but the same was true with Whitewater. The lack of Rezko stories really worries me, especially sine Obama is appealing to younger voters as a different type of politician; which, IMO he is not. He is no better no worse. A British newspaper had a story about the Rezko slums and they interview tenants about what it was like freezing without heat. This particular slum was less than a mile from Obama’s $1.5 million house and he didn’t know what was going on. It is not hard to visualize the TV adds of AA woman and children living in Rezko slums. The reality is determined by the spin and not by the facts whatever they maybe. Obama needs to get out in front of this.
I think we have the video clips we need in Bomb,bomb, bomb Iran and One hundred years, but it would be fun to have more.
The fact that someone would joke about bombing a people is beyond sick.
idk, maybe we can brand McCain to Cain in the fundy mind.
Motherfucking taint licking corporatist pricks. They got what they were told to get: a woman or a black man against the most electable Republican. Keep it close, maybe the Supreme Court’ll have to adjust it again. Proles won’t notice either way, just see that it was “hard fought and close, a real battle of ideas. The Nation just wasn’t ready, blah, blah, fucking blah”. Jesus H. Fucking Christ, date it from the founding of Puritain Hell at Plymouth Rock or the first “official” black slaves at Jamestown in 1619, we’re very close to the end of Amerika’s 400 Year Reich. I hate these motherfucking pukes. They’re making OBL look like the Toynbee of the common era. Doing his work for him, to boot. Asswipes.
Since McCain rarely comes home to play…. I am asking everyone around the country to help… He would rather not restrict the attendance in other places than here. Not sure that the Repug party will do our work by tearing him apart.
Whitewater didn’t prevent Bill from being elected. The big problems came later, to prevent him from carrying out his policies. Maybe Rs will use Rezko more effectively sooner. We’ll see.
It’s got a lot to do with what sank him last time. He’s known for it. And frankly I do think it is substantive. Having a hot head in the oval is downright dangerous. In addition to everything else he is.
I agree but then I thought that in 2004 about Bush. There is a lot of anti-Hillary, anti-Obama sentiments among the moderates/undecideds…and even among some older Dems.
With the “right” media campaign, they just may turn out for St. John. The thought chills me but would not surprise. We ignore this possibility at our peril. Somewhere Karl must be cackling with glee that John is out of the race.
Beyond sick would be Terminal.
The surge is working!
AP – Weeping relatives loaded simple wood coffins atop minivans Saturday in Baghdad as the city buried dozens of victims of the deadliest bombings since the U.S. flooded the capital with extra troops last spring.
I was just thinkinm’ about that todfay – sorta. About Edwards and Rudy. Edwards got crewed because he didn’t have the money to take on two well financed candidates. Also, some suggest, his meaasge was one many msm outlets didn’t want heard He really fought a good fight under the circumstances. Rudy on the other hand, had TONS of money and got TONS of media attention. He dropped out the same day as Edwards. Edwards fought the good fight and left still standing. Rudy always tells us that he’s a fighter. He pissed away each and every advantage he had and got his ass kicked at every turn. That’s why Rudy is and always will be a loser and Edwards is not.
Rezko doesn’t seem much worse than what most politicians have done.
Neither did Watergate. So I was told by a lotta people.
Beleive it or not, some people don’t find that “joking” to be as sick as we do. That’s why I stress my friend in 8. He’s one of the easiest crossover voters the Ds will get. If Obama’s the D, all the McCain warmongering will not convince him that Obama will not make some horrendous mistake that will get the U.S. into deeper trouble than it already is.
Are you kidding me? Read the post up top. The This presidential campaign has been designed, from the very beginning, to insure that the race is as close as possible. Why? Because with a close race the Republican Party will be able to steal it again. They have done it twice already. What makes you think that they won’t be able to do it again in a close election?
The Obama/Clinton matchup was designed from that start to limit the Democratic Party to it’s two weakest choices. This was a deliberate plan by the Republican Party with the help of corporate media.
This election better not be close, in fact it better be a landslide, or we will be looking at President McCain.
Perhaps it is time we let the Iraqi people settle their own problems. Of course there is that nagging teensey weensey three letter word. Oil.
I am not sure what to make of Larry Johnson but he has done several stories of Obama and Kenya. I don’t know whether they are “hit pieces” or are real information. But for the Obama campaign to send dick Morris to Kenya to be a political consultant seems a bit odd.
Link
How would an Obama/Edwards ticket do?
At this point, we, in this house, will cast our vote for Obama in the primary. We’ve sort of had it with Bill and Hill.
The best way to defeat McCainus, the oldest Roman of them all, is to hang the tanking economy around his neck by way of Iraq. If not for Iraq and Bush’s tax cuts (which McCainus now supports) we’d have the money to deal with a severe recession. If not for Iraq, oil wouldn’t be $100 a barrel, keeping our economy in a chokehold. If not for Iraq, we’d be able to put Americans to work rebuilding our infrastructure and the damage to New Orleans from the Republican-botched response to Hurricane Katrina. And John McCain wants American to keep pouring its financial future down a rat hole in Iraq for 100 more years because we can’t look like we lost a war. John McCain wants more American troops and Iraqi civilians to die so he can look like a winner.
Good morning all.
Hello PW!
The Democrats, running true to form, are, once again, endeavoring to ’snatch defeat from the jaws of victory’; mindless of consequence and eschewing meaningful resolve, they are doggedly pursuing their own tale, re-running the notion that, if they ‘fail’ then it will be someone else’s fault.
(Nader, anyone?)
Perhaps an Edward’s ‘hangover’?
Regardless, if they lose, it is not their fault – it is OURS!
In the immortal words of that Democratic stalwart, former Senator Gary Hart, delivered right here, on FDL:
‘If you want to impeach, impeach!’
As I said yesterday (an eon of time ago, it seems) when urging a change in the motto on our coinage: ‘It’s Up To Us’!
Note: The preceding is snark, except where it isn’t.
That would work for us. Quite well.
It would do it for me….. Not sure after that hit job Obama did on Hillary’s healthcare plan with the Harry & Louise flyer
Compared to today..they are right.
I woke up this morning and changed the channel to MPBN and found a couple who was losing their home to foreclosure. Both of them stated they were republican and when the host asked why they continue to vote republican (against their interests) and not Democrat, they responded it was because of morals and values. *shudder* Then the host asked the wife who she was going to vote for in 2008 and she said….Hillary Rodham Clinton! I’m not joking. This woman went on to say that it’s Hillary who is most aligned with her personal needs right now (healthcare was what she was referring to).
I know it’s unpopular, but I am one who can’t vote for Hillary if she’s on the ballot in November. I just can’t and I found it so interesting that this woman could considering all the bad things she and her husband had just said about the Democrats as a whole.
Hi PW. Thanks for that sobering headsup.
-I think we have the video clips we need in Bomb,bomb, bomb Iran and One hundred years, but it would be fun to have more.-
If Mccain is the media pick, why would they overplay any gaff(dean scream)?
They will protect him and highlight Obamas flaws. We will have nothing to do with what gets put on tv on a daily basis. We will be here frustrated,pulling our hair out and trying to play catch up.
That would not do it for my friend in 8, because Edwards is also inexperienced in foreign affairs. My friend is primarily concerened with having an adult in the White House, nad is much less concerned about social policies. As a priority, I can’t argue with him.
Good morning, everyone! Sorry I’m late — did anybody make any coffee? (whimper, beg)
Good gawd, you’re right Sangemon about the republicans needing a close race to make it easier to steal.
I am so tired of them!
What is so fascinating and if this is true, why are the neocons putting McCain up instead of Guiliani/Thompson/Romney? Is it their way of saying “screw off” to Rush Limbaugh and the other neocons? Could be.
Have to disagree on this one. My conservative husband will actively vote Republican ONLY if HRC is nominee. If its Obama vs. McCain he is considering Obama. If its any other Republican versus Obama he will sit it out. I know plenty of other moderate Reps (we live in VA -turning “purple”) who will at least consider Obama, but never HRC (unfair, but true).
The only real way to guarantee McCain loses, is too get a whole bunch of new voters registered before the election. Like it or not, Obama seems to be able to do this much more than Clinton. That’s why I do not fully believe these head to head polls. They have been so off this year because of the unexpected turnout. If we carry the turnout, we can carry the election. The conservative base may sit it out.
As if the Surge is Working is not bad enough…. but when are they going to stop with “Everything had been going fine until that gold mosque got blowed up. That changed everything.”
http://news.aol.com/story/_a/l…..4609990001
This Lynch guy is soooooo fulla shit. But it’s catching on and that will help McCain. Seems like Obama is calling bullshit on “The Surge is Working”. We really need a prominent person like him to dom it. Hillary?
The MSM did not start playing the Macaca vid…. it was here on the blogs and emailed around the country. It was viral out on the internet before it got on to shows such as KO & TDS…. THEN the MSM had to show it…..
THAT is how it works….. Someone in Iowa or KY video’s McCain doing X…. get it up on youtube and to the guys at TheRealMcCain site and then email it around…
Good morning PW! *dragging barrel of coffee in your direction* ;-)
This is the problem. We stay home.
Oy!
If she is the nominee, people are going to have to suck it up. There is no doubt in my mind that McCain will attack Iran. Personal feelings about Hillary or Obama compared to another million war dead.
Because McCain is the most electable candidate that they have.
All Republicans lie…making a political decision on what they say???
Ah, ’suck it up, move on, its just a thing …’
Note: The preceding is snark except where it isn’t.
On the bright side a Cain presidency could be the burning of the GOP corpse.
Perhaps ask yourself: Who supported the Bush Iraq attack? Who didn’t? Who is for change? And who is for so called “experience”, but talks little about change? Who is deeply connected to the DLC? Who is not? Who more represents progressive values? Who does not. Obama or Hillary? Your choice. February 5th.
How to NOT have a close election…..
Between NOW and the voter registration cut off date ….. volunteer to register voters
What our Dem party district group is doing is calling newly registered voters to come to meetings & social events. Notify the precinct committee person that they are a new voter so that they can be contacted by a neighbor…..
IF each of us make sure that 5 people vote (of course to vote for a Dem) AND each of them make sure that 5 people vote….. Then it will be overwhelming turnout and they can’t steal it. It is only when it is close.
Just do anything you can to make sure that it NOT a close election.
Morning PW. Great post!
Not voting is the same as a vote for the Republican.
By the way, Media Matters’ Jamison Foser has a nice essay called “Rich Media, Poor Debates” which is worth reading.
The short version: The national press, which historically has been working-class or lower-middle-class, is now financially far beyond most Americans, and so is going to stand against them and against any candidate working for most Americans.
You maybe right..we may be over the cliff already and there is no turning back..I want to give it one more shot, however, before I give up.
Thanks! (slurps up coffee)
Fair enough on your first point. (Illustrating general problem of anecdotal approach.)
On your second, so true. Ds must get lots of new voters registered.
And if Edwards had been our candidate we would have had our landslide.
Oh well, I’m not going to stay home. I’m not going to waste my vote. I think I’ll just keep on deciderin’ for a while.
Hey Loo Hoo
How goes that Other campaign in your neck of the woods?
2008 is ALL about the Supreme Court….. There probably be 2-4 open seats
IF you want to loose any gains made in the last century with women, racial and economic justice then go ahead and stay home.
I’m proudly gonna be voting Edwards on Tues–let it be a message to the party, and to the other candidates. I’m not alone in this either.
link
Short piece by paradon on the MSM, I hope he is right.
Agree with you. Susan Eisenhower’s endorsement of Obama in the WaPo today is huge — and there are more people than me who are old enough to remember when there was a moderate Republican base out there.
But the biggest thing for me is my daughter’s sudden conversion from political non-player to passionate Obama fundraiser and phonebanker. She’s pretty eloquent about why, too.
I’ll vote D no matter what, but I have to confess I’m really getting tanked about Obama. I heard the clip on Moyers last night about what book he’d take into the WH — and it was Goodwin’s biography of Lincoln.
Lincoln was no abolitionist — he was an incredible pragmatist who listened to his enemies (put most of them in his Cabinet, in fact) and who was attacked non-stop by his critics. But his ability to inspire and his commitment to his belief in one union kept us all together AND ended slavery.
It’s not too far from the divisiveness we see today — and it’s something I can see Obama being able to accomplish where HRC can’t. The LATimes put it well — she has substance too — but he has poetry.
That seems to me to be a waste of your vote. He’s not running for president anymore.
If I could convince my friend of that, and that McCain was not just “joking,” that would probably pursuade him. The difficulty is that my friend is very aware of how overstretched U.S. military is and how dire the consequences of bombing Iran would be. y guess is that he could never be convinced that McCain would be so irresponsible. So how can we demonstrate McCain’s irresponsibility?
I know I’m showing my age,
but if I can remember the Keating Five,
then surely our $8-million a year media stars can as well.
Unless their salaries depend on them not remembering.
I am right with you…… I was hip deep in the Edwards campaign here in AZ with great grassroot organizing group hitting it hard with lots of their own resources.
I flip back and forth between the remain two …. ask why our DLC Gov is how a Obama supporter and why she has done something NEVER done to campaign for a candidate in a primary vs waiting for the general.
I totally agree. I watched a teenager die in 1972 as result of a “back alley” abortion..I don’t want to see those days again. But how does your statement fit with your @50?
I’m still planning to vote for Edwards also. Doesn’t he still get delegates? Won’t that give him some Say in the convention?
NYT reported that Edwards and Obama have had daily phone conversations. I really hope that Obama sees that it is in HIS interest to have Edwards with him. (Besides, we could enjoy watching the MSM go red in the face after having so successfully blacked Edwards out of any and all coverage — He’s ba-a-a-ack.)
Excuse me, my husband and I are very honest with each other, thank you very much. As our my friends – we talk about very sensitive and personal topics, so don’t cast aspersions about people you have never met. Categorizing all people who have ever voted Rep as automatic liars is why this party may always stay in the minority. We have to convince the sane ones to join with us, not call them names. Let’s not lose sight of the ball…winning.
The government of the United States of America has been ignoring the will of it’s citizens since the mid 1960’s
On the bright side a Cain presidency could be the burning of the GOP corpse.
possibly true – it’s going to be very hard for the next prez to avoid being a one-termer. Problem is – I don’t think Justice John Paul Stevens can hang on for another four years. The Supreme Court is quite possibly the biggest prize at issue in the upcoming election.
There’s always Joe Scarborough’s comments — not to mention McCain’s own: http://www.google.com/search?h…..ccain+iran
That’s exactly what we all should be doing…voting for the person we want (I still want Kucinich) regardless of who the ROM (republican owned media) has chosen for us! I will not get down on my knees for them.
McCain –
Keating 5:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keating_Five
Abramoff documents (750,000) of them.
What I find particularly disturbing is that more than a few men will vote against Senator Clinton because this individual is a woman. I find it equally disturbing that more than a few woman will vote for Senator Clinton because this individual is a woman. As if we don’t have enogh polarizations. Vote on the issues. Vote on the records.
It’s looking more and more like the Party is picking Obama. Look at all of the endorsements he’s gotten since SC.
If the republican candidate wins, he will continue to destroy our constitution. Tuesday will be a day my vote counts. It doesn’t happen often living in GA.
That has alway been true..it’s is just the degree that changes.
I can’t find the actual figures with a quick google but I do believe that registered Democrats still outnumber registered Republicans both nationwide and in most states.
That depends on your state Democratic party rules. They have disbanded or released Edwards delegates in some states. You need to call your state Dem party to ask what happens to those delegates.
In caucus they will be reapportioned to the remaining candidates.
Call before you throw away your vote.
What would obviously be nice with an Obama/Edwards winning ticket would be the possiblity of sixteen years of Progressive Democrats in the White House.
It depends on which State you are in. Some are winner take all, some will commit the delegates to Edwards, some will divide his delegates between the other two based on the percentage of the vote they get.
I think Edwards will have a minimal effect delegate-wise, but he may have a big effect endorsement-wise.
But remember that Greg Palast says that the Ds start out with a 6 million vote deficit owing to R shenanigans.
The democratic party awards delegates based on the percentage of votes. I believe that you must have at least 15% of the vote in order to receive a delegate.
I agree with you fully and think the logic is so apparent and our previous experience with lost elections due to party divisions is so obvious, that I don’t see much purpose in arguing the point.
While I don’t agree, I don’t think it’s all that harmful for people to state flatly, that they won’t vote for somebody under any circumstances. Okay, so be it. What I do think is harmful and disrespectful to other FDL pups is the diatribes and venom against one or the other of the Democratic candidates.
Unfortunately, I fear St. McCain in November. I had someone in my family say to me yesterday that we can’t have a black man represent us as a nation because he will just be assasinated, so we need to elect anyone else and McCain is great even if he means more war. That is not concern for Obama, it is racism, pure and simple. This is going to be a very, very tough fight.
I think you are right. That being said, I hope that the candidate who looses the “elected delegate” count will withdraw. If Hillary get the nomination based on “super delegates” it would be very bad for the general election. Probably less so for obama.
and also in response to Katymine:
I’m in CA, not winner take all.
Also, I missed any debate here over Edwards’ choice to use the term suspend instead of end(ing) his candidacy. Any difference or was that just legalese?
***DING!***
If it’s true that the Iraq issue is the most important thing that progressives are thinking about, then you tell me, how should this progressive Democrat should vote next Tuesday.
I don’t believe any Democratic primaries or caucuses are winner take all. Those were stopped in the seventies. The Rs still have some states but the Dems have been using proportional distribution of delegates by Congressional District as long as the candidate receives 15% of the vote in that district.
good, maybe obama could finally kill off the southern strategy.
Same experience here…. I was a 19 yr old nursing student when I saw a 14 year old girl die from a “back alley” abortion. Very profound experience watching the life drain from that child. That event and my own mothers extreme pro-choice stand formed my view of my and all woman’s right to privacy.
What we have is generational amnesia about life before Roe v. Wade. My mother had a close friend who committed suicide when she found out she was pregnant.
Yes, but many of them do not vote which makes a de facto smaller voting pool, especially electorally. We all remember 2000. That is why we need to outdo the Republicans on turnout to make sure the winnable states are in our column. This requires gaining independents and Republicans if possible ( without compromising on principles).
Ah, the internets . . . You’ve got a question? We’ve got an answer.
Somewhere at the University of Virginia, Larry Sabato has a very, very good work-study student and/or graduate assistant. Either that, or he has a friend or two in the various campaigns. One way or another, someone collected a whole lot of basic info on next Tuesday’s primaries and caucuses for him, and put it all into one nice, neat package.
Here’s a great summary of next Tuesday’s various elections – poll closing times, which states are open/closed primaries and which are caucuses, how many delegates in each state, how they are awarded, %R/%D/%I breakdown, race/ethnicity demographics, 2004 election results, etc.
Very, very nice stuff.
(h/t to one of Atrios’ readers for the link)
OT
First frmale prez of Harvard is just up on C-SPAN2 to talk about her academic work on Civil War deaths.
OK, I was under the impression that my state, New York, was a winner take all state, but that may have just been the R’s.
Some have said now the Dems can win the prez by even writing off the South…The interesting thing about that is since JFK all Dem prezs have been from the South…
1,736 DAYZ AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen Pheonix Woman and the Firepup Freedom Fighters:
You are right about McCrazy’s strength with liberals and Democrats…however, if Barak O’Lieberman is the nominee, he will beat McCrazy like a drum unless Mrs. Clinton comes outta the closet and endorses the droolin’ geriatric from Arizona. Don’t laugh, if Clinton doesn’t get the nomination she and Bill are perfectly capable of declarin’ fer the fascists and movin’ ta K-street ta get what’s left of the public treasury.
Vigilance and action…and hope Barak is real! If O’Lieberman is the real thing, we got a shot ta turn this whole nightmare around…ORGANIZE,ORGANIZE,ORGANIZE and…
KEEP THE FAITH ALL THE BASTARDS GOT IS OUR MONEY!!
Oh, right how could I have been so dense.
Let’s see, hmm.
Steve, years ago there was a sign on a bridge across the Charles river, between Boston and Cambridge whgich read: ‘If Voting Could Change Things, It Would Be Illegal’.
Given all the election related ‘problems’ we face, from voter ignorance (enforced, I might add)to a blatantly unfair and anti-democratic primary ’system’, to Diebold theft, to the ‘money’ problem, it truly warms the cockles of me tired wee pumper that you have such high hopes for a Democratic ‘victory’ and subsequent meaningful change. If we are ‘lucky’ enough to ‘elect’ HRC, for she is our future and our fate (or, so it appears likely) our troubles, our ‘new’ troubles will just have begun, if WE fail, President McPain will enlarge upon the ‘old’ troubles rather substantially; in essence our ‘vote’ is not ‘for’ anything as much as it is ‘against’ some worser consequence.
The ‘right’ to vote is still yet like our notion of religious choice, which still includes (thouigh this is subject to change) the ‘right’ to forego ‘belief’ entirely. Somehow I am not comfortable with continually having to resign myself to condemning my society to the ‘Least-Worst’.
So if ‘we’ ‘lose’, then you can blame widdle ol’ me.
Note: The preceding is snark except where it isn’t.
Absolutely..I am basically agnostic on the Pres candidates but preferred Edwards because I though he would be the most competitive in the General.
Call your state party to find out for sure.
He suspended his campaign so that when and IF the FEC pays out the matching funds Edwards can pay off the loan he took out to fund his campaign. He used the expected matching fund payout to secure a loan to fund the campaign. He has to keep it open but not active.
McCain hurts my ears and offends my eyes. I thought about his team mate and it will probably be someone like John Bolton or John Negroponte. Conjure up that image and you need brain bleach.
I figure the fix is in at this point so what was McCain’s deal with the devil he made if they let him run for prez? It’s in the veep.
I’ve never understood the base base appeal :/
That idiot Joe Klein is holding forth on Tim Russert now on MSNBC.
Interestingly enough, Bill Clinton, played the “race card”. And I really don’t like that.
I don’t know if this is reported yet but c&l is reporting that mccain tried to switch parties back in 01
linkerage
romney might well wind up the candidate if he knows how to use that information
NY is a winner take all for the Rs but like I say, the Demo National Party rules were changed and did away with winner take all back in the seventies.
More equitable and all that.
It also means that any delegates pledged to Edwards remain committed to him. They can’t give their votes to anyone else, unless and until Edwards formally withdraws as a candidate.
Should the results on Tuesday be mixed, and neither Clinton nor Obama get a big haul of delegates, this will give Edwards even more leverage with the two campaigns to push for his issues.
Particularly considering his age and the state of his health. Chew on that.
Didn’t the Clintons support Lieberman over Lamont in 2006? I think they did.
“There’s lots of bad stuff about McCain that the media is ignoring because they have such a crush on him. It will be up to us all to expose everything we can and spread the word as far as we can.”
Yeah, like we did for Edwards.
Thank gawd for small favors!
I basically think your are right..I think the country has gone off the political cliff and unstoppable climate change happened in the mid-80’s. But I’ll give the Dems one more shot before I move to higher ground in another country.
Well, let’s put it this way. They sure didn’t help Lamont.
Is somebody making a list?
Might come in handing for conversation at the SB parties tomorrow. I know I will be in a room full of folks who probably would support McCain.
The Clintons AND Obama supported Lieberman over Lamont in the primary. After Lamont won, all expressed support for Lamont in the General election. HRC raised money for Lamont. Obama I believe sent out an email message of support.
Please don’t hold one candidate to a higher standard than the other.
I mean handy not handing
No..
Thank you, Katy.
I can cross that question off my list.
One down, 49 to go.
Ha.
demi:
I got your message. I’ll Facebook you in afew…
Steve if you are ‘agnostic’ then you’re already halfway to ‘unbelief’.
This is a dangerous region to find onself wandering around in, ’tis fraught with pitfalls and doubt… also kindda lonely, sometimes …
(Edwards would also have been my choice, given that Kucinich is too short)
Wait! I’m trying to take this seriously, because the SSupreme Court is on the line, my children’s future is on the line , the capacity of earth to support human existence is on the line…..
Please forgive me, Steve that I am less than … happy with my ‘choices’
rendered so by the maladies I mentioned in my previous.
But, truth be told, we are on the same side.
I thought that Obama actually campaigned with Lamont. Am I wrong?
Fine, but what is the point of sharing that? Is it just that misery loves company, or is that another movement that you’re advocating?
For us the bottom line is that McCain has for quite a long time kissed George W. Bush’s ass. Same goes for Lieberman.
Drive by comment – off skiing with my kid. But I want to say this:
I hate our media. They are guilty players in the mess we are in. When Edwards dropped out, I was devestated, not only because the best most progressive candidate was out of the race, but because the media silence around, except to ask when he was quitting, finally won. Fuck them. I note too, that he eventualy got all the media time he deserved, after he quit.
But part of my deep sadness at his departure from the race was just this, PW. I suddenly saw the great liklihood of a McCain presidency.
When we eventually win our country back, I’d like to see investigations into the dirty business engaged by all these media players. They too must be held accountable.
Lamont has endorsed Obama but in the Senate race, Obama campaigned for Lieberman in the primary and was not to be seen during the general. Edwards DID campaign for Lamont side-by-side.
Yes.
On that point I am a proud atheist which usually induces shock and withdrawal from people in my bible-belt state.
Google is a handy tool. Obama will be at a rally with Ned Lamont and Ted Kennedy Monday in CT.
1,736 DAYZ AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen Crosstimbers:
“…I don’t think it’s all that harmful for people to state flatly, that they won’t vote for somebody under any circumstances.”
Well good, I’m glad that holdin’ strong opinions and expressin’ them is not “harmful”…good lord, that’s exactly what we need right now, we got into this mess by bein’ timid and afraid ta piss anyone off. Tell it like it is and make sure ya don’t vote for the “lesser evil”…there is too much at stake here to pretend that any Democrat is better’n any fascist Republican. If Clinton is the nominee, I will leave that column blank and vote for every progressive on the ballot…and I will spend my energy and what little money I ken scare up ta get a progressive majority in Congress to oppose another fascist president.
KEEP THE FAITH AND PASS THE AMMUNITION…THIS FIGHT HAS BEEN GOIN’ ON FOR 200 YEARS!!
Thanks Demi, Ned needs to run again.
Do seem we thinks alike; to higher ground. Where have you in mind? Any ideas? I’m wondering how we’ll be treated as immigrants.
Big B!
:)
Logrolling with Jokeline Joe Klein and Timmeh on MSNBC.
The way the media sucked the oxygen right out of the Edwards campaign was shameful and truly an indicator of their political leanings: republican/fascist. The problem with both Obama and HRC is that neither of them are really that great, but their egos got the best of them, and that alone has eclipsed what is truly best for the country.
Their paeans to Edwards at the last “debate” made me ill… I felt like tossing something thru my teevee, but that only would have gotten the spouse pissed, and I would have not been able to watch KO for a while.
You can see Obama now beginning to talk not in stirring rhetoric any more, but in stirring focused-grouped talking points, and only those that reassure his corporate masters. HRC has always done this, and will continue until she’s done.
Voting this year will be a nose-holding affair…
I know, I’ve heard you express that often and know that you’ve been around enough not to be susceptible to change. However, I disagree and would, in fact vote for an appropriation for presidential bimbos if we could abolish the actions of the current administration on all foreing and domestic issues and install a President who believed that government can and should act effectively to promote the general welfare.
You think ‘bimbos’ would be up to that?
I think you understood what I was saying about priorities.
The MSM want the election to be close to favor the republicans, partly. More importanly, they just want a good show and lots of fireworks.
Just what JoFish said. The two worst Dem candidates, now being herded well right of center by the MSM to where MCCainTheBushcoSuccesor will represent a “temperate” Republican, with solutions to 43’s suddenly obvious weaknesses (you know, a looming world wide depression)while avoiding the excesses of “tax and spend” Dems, now personified in the Black Man Avatar. The war isn’t going to be an issue in the MSM until one of the three actually speaks against it and stops voting to fund it. Not happening.
Fuck, Iceland was looking OK until they decided to build an aluminum smelter. There are reasons why R. Crumb and Johnny Depp are living in France.
And that their ‘influence’ upon those whom they ’serve’ would improve things? You have a somewhat different take than I regarding the effectiveness of certain ‘movements’in waking up the ‘leadership’.
Your suggestion might tend to lull our ‘leaders’ into lethargy or eveninduce sleep.
Innerestin’ thought, though.
By way of experiment, there is this guy, named Bill …
Of course, and I agree, but our ‘methods’ differ, that is all.
Big Media has the last 8 years now denied us 2 of our very best candidates in Gore and Edwards, leaving us once again the choice of least worst.
There is NOTHING more important for progressives to make a better today and tomorrow, for restoring America and American values, for defending the Constitution and the rule of law than to…
BREAKUP BIG MEDIA NOW!!!!!!
.
First a tear on Edwards media assasinated grave. A pity folks did not look a bit more to him especially some more savy bloggers that are pretty keen on media coverage (the first media bullet was Jan/Feb 2007 when the stories were about 1200 Clinton, 950 Obama, and 56 Edwards – sorry dont have the link).
Another blow was the tarring of Edwards as ”mysoginist” when Clinton cried.
For McCain ad I was on the bandwagon for taking his rep out starting in Nov 2006. One or two good ads (throw in his kiss and ass grab of Bush II into each):
1. Montage with bombbomb bomb Iran, 100 years of war, and the jobs are not coming back.Throw in something on immigrationa, maybe some skeleton for good measure.
2. In more red state red areas have his vote against bush II tax cuts, McCain fiengolf, mcCain Kennedy immigration, and have something like ”McCain – the worst ideas from both parties”. Thow in the jobs are not coming back, and in Iowa his dis of corn subsidies.
It would be great in a just world where tying him to Bush II and lieber liar would be enough.
Oh, and the media pre-strategy for McCain was also to hide the war and give Bush II a pass on freezing the civil war in Iraq (as well as trying to freeze economic ruin).
I think also any ad with him saying he does not understand the econ and will just have a bunch of managers to tell him what to do.
All this material can come almost exclusivly from the debates.
If you want to be slick you can have some ”crazy” sounding music in the background, and end the ad with a crashing sound.
Odd you should say that. This thread plus one over at Emptywheel have had me wonderng just what benefit We the People derive from the current arrangement, and my answer to myself was, “Almost nothing, and that little is outweighed by the toxicity of the lockstep, blindness, and willful deception.” If I could get a good daily crossword puzzle, I think that I would be quite happy with a ‘grapevine’ approach to news. It would not be 48 hours after the demise of the MSM before the net coughed up a Google-like service on an RSS feed that gave you better, wider, and fairer coverage than we get now. You could probably cobble together something like that right now.
What I want to know is where in the Constitution is it written that the Media get to decide who voters get to vote for? We need new legislation that does not automatically favor incumbents.
I am very upset about how the media treated Kucinich and Edwards.
Bob in HI
I wondered how long it would take for us to hear about O’s Kenyan connection…particularly in view of the current civil war there. I am astounded that Dick Morris was involved. What a snake! Did O have anything to do with engaging him? There was no definition of that in Larry Johnson’s article.
It seems none of us are as clever as the MSM. Their manipulation of the campaign(s) becomes chrystal clear.
Have you seen this funny McCain/Clinton video? They are like peas in a pod. They have both received the most money from lobbyists and are Washington insiders.
It’s a love fest for Senators. “Why did you have to be so good” Carly Simmon
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cE7V_cOMamw
Steve: you have it exactly right. Wonder why so few famous bloggers, like Kos or the men at the Huffington Post, understood the force of what you’re saying. Sadly, no.
I’m for Hillary, but I could so easily what the media did to John Edwards was so blatantly unfair. He had a lot of important things to say, and I think he was constantly given the brush-off. Even if he did cartwheels and stood on his head, I think people like Matthews and Scarborough would have yawned. He didn’t deserve that sort of treatment. After HIllary, Edwards was definitely my number two choice, and I would have had no trouble voting for him.
It was pretty clear that the reason Edwards was always treated as a low tier for coverage was because he simply didn’t have the National Poll numbers of SUPPORTERS. And as the campaigns wore on he began to gain some support from the “undecideds” but then he started losing the individuals that would also “consider him” and he started increasing his “definitely would not vote for” numbers. This happened in all the candidates, actually, because as their policies became better known and they were attacked people started fixing upon certain candidates. The candidates own attacks against others (and attacks by others) diminished their “likeability” factor…so eventually Edwards ratings as a possible winner against McCain dropped. Right after Iowa it was no longer the situation where he was able to beat “all the Republicans”. That’s where he came in second, so that didn’t seem to help.
McCains rise is very odd to me. Exit surveys suggest that many of his supporters actually oppose the US staying in Iraq. He also has a large number of Pro-Choice Republicans behind him. Yet on both these issues McCain is definitively more conservative than these supporters. It may be that his erstwhile “maverick” position falsely leads moderate Republican voters to support him. Or perhaps although they are “liberal” on these issues they just aren’t very important to them vs. things like cutting the tax-rates on people making over $1 million/year?
One more, and very important point. Many of these surveys use weightings in their surveys that are very unlikely to have any meaning at all this fall. They weight by those who are “likely to vote” by prior voting records. Registration of new voters is massively up for Democrats. In California they just announced that Democrats had been registering new party members 4:1 over the Republicans. In every competitive primary thus far the Democrats have pulled in almost double the number of voters that the Republican primary did. This is true in “Red States” as well as Blue States.
The weightings for the Republicans tend to be higher in surveys and polls based on age, registration and voting history. The fact is that the raw data is never used, straight-up, for obtainining the results you see in these polls. There are different models used to massage the data to predict “probable voters” [Exit polls are a bit different since they are actual responses from real physical voters, but can sometimes be erroneous if some districts are over- or under-sampled. These surveys can, however, be corrected by going back over them and adjusting their results once all the precinct counts are reported]
Appearance in a primary to vote is also a high indicator of actual turnout, but cannot be obtained in these surveys until after the fact. In the Democratic Primaries that have just occurred, young people are voting at levels 25-35% above what they did in previous Presidential elections (and making up a larger amount of the total participants)…utterly unheard of levels of response in Primary elections (which tend to be older voters, again).
None of this is going into these surveys of “success” against a Republican candidate.
I’d also point out that in the last set of surveys in January both Clinton and Obama were within the statistical range of defeating McCain…they were not definitively losing to him. But they were easily defeating the other Republican candidates.
Here’s the last survey that includes Edwards, Obama and Clinton together in head-to-heads with Republican rivals. It’s the Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by Financial Dynamics. Jan. 10-12, 2008. N=803 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.
“Now thinking about the next election for president in 2008, if the election for U.S. president were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?” Options rotated.
Republican 33% Democratic 48% Neither 4% Unsure 15%
“Now, suppose the general election for president in 2008 were being held today between Republican [see below] and Democrat [see below] — for whom would you vote?” If Unsure: “Which way would you lean as of today?” Names rotated
John McCain (R) 42% Barack Obama (D)43% Unsure 14%
John McCain (R)48% Hillary Clinton (D) 45% Unsure 8%
John McCain (R)48% John Edwards (D) 40% Unsure 12% [Edwards was leading McCain 44% to 39% in May of 2007 and by even more 48% to 37% in April 2007 in this same poll]
So Edwards was actually the only Democratic candidate that WAS NOT within the statistical range of defeating McCain in the most recent Diageo post-Iowa survey. I still believe that he would have proportionately picked up many undecideds, since there is a strong tendency for the public to want a Democrat in the WH (Q#1). Consider the dire fact that even if all of the “undecideds” broke for the Republicans in that result that they’d still only have a horse-race. Another quirk is that some of those that might not vote for EITHER MAJOR PARTY might still have selected McCain in a head-to-head question.
To be precise, Obama sent out an email of support in the General election supporting Lamont over Lieberman. I don’t know whether he campaigned for Lieberman in the Primary or not…though I would suspect he would have tended to favor an incumbent Democrat over an untested primary challenger. But that may have been for the simple reason that he feared losing the seat (and the Senate) to the Republicans. But I don’t know if he actually raised funds or made public appearances with JoeLie.
As well, was his so-called “lack of support” for Lamont unusual? Did he appear with every other Democratic Senatorial candidate in 2006? Was he focussed on supporting Democrats in Illinois? I’d say that his even sending an email was a bit of a slap to Joe-Lie, as was Edwards not supporting his mentor in the New Democrats caucus group in the Senate.
That misses what happened during all of 2007 that set the stage for the results in the Jan. 10-12 2008 poll not the least of which were the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire primary. Edwards finishes 2nd in Iowa but the Clinton-Obama storyline continued.
After Obama announced in February the press began trashing Edwards. The trashing continued from that point on and finally in the last months of 2007 Edwards all but vanished and the press turned the Democratic race into a two person event.
In spite of that, I saw head-to-heads, by state, in the fall showing Edwards beating every Republican, including McCain, and by comfortable margins even in Kentucky. In Ohio it was a blowout for Edwards against all Republicans.
The press wanted McCain and look who the Republican nominee will be.
The press wanted a two person ‘historic’ Democratic race and look what we have.
The press wants Clinton beaten so the Obama South Carolina primary win was blown way out of proportion and her big wins in Michigan and Florida were ignored or otherwise marginalized. The no delegates angle was played as an excuse to ignore impressive wins. In Michigan the press set amn abitrary threshold of 60% for Clinton claiming that less than 60% would be a loss. When she got 55% the press declared it a ’setback.’ The press ignored the no delegate situation in Michiagn to report failure (against their declared threshold). The press used the zero delegate count in Florida to justify ignoring a 17 point triumph but had no problem ignoring the zero delegate count in Michigan to advance a story of failing based on their (the press) standard for success. The press wanted to shrink Clinton’s nationwide lead and what have we got.
The press has once again suckered us in they’ve controlled the primaries to get the match-up they want.
They seem to like Obama and look who appears to have the momentum. They ignore Obama’s negatives and have granted him, for the primaries, a teflon coating.
If Obama wins and opposes McCain, Obama’s teflon will be replaced with velcro.
Remember, the press LOOOVES McCain.