Good morning Christy!

KO really smoked em last night.

Good Morning Christy!
don’t suppose you’re weather’s any better than ours

Hey Christy,

Thanks for the phone list, we’ve got work to do!

Morning all. Elliott, it’s raining and miserably gray, but The Peanut and I are planning to make collages out of old magazine picures today, so we’ve decided not to care.

These votes are coming very close — Monday and Tuesday for the bulk of them, it looks like. So we really have to hit the phones and FAXes starting today.

Good. And let’s pay close attention to the actors in coming debate and votes. Let’s mark down those who have abandoned the constitution, and hold them accountable, regardless of party. There are two clear avenues here. One is marked by fear and supression, the other by our founding fathers.

thanks for the link to the C&L KO clip… that’s all the KO i get to watch.

… i’m very concerned about the votes that are going to require 60 votes to pass. whatever did the dems cave on that for???!!

… will start calling and faxing this afternoon. thank you, christy, for the call to act. i’m going to be demanding FISC oversight of minimization activities – not just procedures – as well.

p.s. i made a youtube of harry reid’s statement on the UC yesterday (i wanted an excuse to make a youtube, now that i have c-span via cable tv instead of having to rip their real player webstreams). i love the look on reid’s face when he talks about how brilliant feingold is and how he carefully looks at every bit of the language.

oragami mammy!

From everything I’m hearing, the negotiations were ugly, tense, and not at all easy on any of the sides. And that Feingold and Dodd’s staffs were VERY involved in all of it. The GOP knew what they were doing in demanding the 60 vote margins onseveral of these — those would likely have passed by 50 votes, so it makes things harder to round up the rest of the votes.

But they expected the Dems to cave altogether a few weeks ago and we’re still fighting. Damned if I’m giving up now. And if we can pull along some of the wavering GOP folks, so much the better, eh?

Well good morning!

Just because they are sleeping here on the left coast doesn’t mean it’s too early to call D.C.!

OT
January nonfarm payrolls DOWN 17,000.

selise,
I think some of the 50 vote issues are poison pills anyway. AND we will struggle to get the 51 votes. Don’t forget, Darth has the tie breaker if need be. UGH.

The FAX machines ought to be working pretty much any hour of the day in most of the offices. *g*

That Special Comment was effing amazing!
All critters in the SJC need to see that.
All critters in congress need to see that.
All muricans need to see that.

Right on KO!

I just sent out an SOS to the new group we’ve started up outside of the congregation. Another 30-40 troopers added to our efforts.

Oh, that’s not good…

English please…

Nope. But it means more Fed easing.

last time I tried faxing to Specter, his machine either didn’t answer or gave busy signals. I think he doesn’t want to hear from us.

why are there two 19’s?

that was wierd

Hey Nineteen

Steely Dan

I ‘m sorry I thought that you could not make a crime not illegal in a one shot deal unless you made it not illegal all the time. So is what Darth wants is retroactive or PERMANENT immunity? If Darth gets his way then can the Telecoms keep giving Bush everything he asks for? Are there ANY limits or oversight to prevent abuses? Is there any public oversight?
Where is the GOP on this Bush is almost gone do they really want Hilary to have this power? I cannot believe that is what Darth wants otherwise Haliburtron with all the investigations regarding war profiteering won’t be able to use their phones or emails to talk to their lawyers.
Unless FISA respects Attorney Client privilege?

Summary of the UC Agreement, with brief summaries of amendments, links to amendment text, recitation of time allowed for debate.

That’s been online since about 10:30 p.m. EST.

I think some of the 50 vote issues are poison pills anyway. AND we will struggle to get the 51 votes. Don’t forget, Darth has the tie breaker if need be. UGH.

Gee, wonder how he’d vote on thise? hmmmm…

Damned if I’m giving up now. And if we can pull along some of the wavering GOP folks, so much the better, eh?

I keep calling and emailing Sununu and piggregg and I am running out of things to say. How the hell can I get them off their positions. I suggest to sununu that he is going to lose his seat this year if he does not stop voting for the war, for immunity and like a bloody bush puppet and as for gregg I expect I would get more sense from a coat of paint.

I will keep calling anyway.

We are heading fast to economic melt down.

The “financial” institutions are selling “instruments” which have no value… and the emperor’s clothes are coming off. They call it a liquidity crises and blame it on the sub prime loans, but really they are all getting caught scamming these worthless financial instruments and “investors” are “running the banks” and the fed is printing more money (cheap) so that they can pay the demands. If they print enough, they will have turned the dollar into a totally worthless medium of exchange. Wheel barrel sales will skyrocket.

Banks and financial institutions have been creating “money” (financial instruments” out of whole clothe and thin air and selling them as “investments” and idiots have been buying this rubbish, sellers making fees and commissions of the sale of useless junk.

Fed is trying to save their co conspirators – the banks… and the stim package is yet another way to get some cash into them for all the debt they flogged.

Ain’t gonna work.

and what makes any of us think they would “allow” Hillary to become pres.? Unless they’ve already cut a secret deal, of course.

The number of people employed in the nonfarm sector declined by 17,000 in January. That included drops of 27,000 in construction, 28,000 in manufacturing, 18,000 in government, 11,000 in professional & business services, partly offset by increases in other services, notably a 47,000 rise in private education and health services.

You can expect to see further declines in jobs in coming months (monthly numbers are volatile so some bouncing around would not be unusual), further Fed easing, and perhaps a move to bump up the fiscal stimulus package more than House & Senate have already talked about.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

I think some of the 50 vote issues are poison pills anyway.

In order to move a senator with persuasive argument, you need to be specific. Feingold’s “strip Title II” amendment is set for a 50 vote margin That speaks volumes, to those who see through the fog of Senate and statutory rhetoric.

You don’t think that the Senator or Representative you are trying to get through to is really seeing or hearing any message you may have for them do you? They just get numbers from their staffers, percentages, demographics. I don’t believe they ever see anything that any of us actually write.

The GOP knew what they were doing in demanding the 60 vote margins onseveral of these — those would likely have passed by 50 votes, so it makes things harder to round up the rest of the votes.

exactly my point. seems like the dems had that upper hand on this, and gave it away. i mean, if the republicans wanted passage to require 60 votes, all they had to do was filibuster. for crying out loud, when are the Ds going to make the Rs pay a political price for their obstructionism? especially this time, when it was so clear that the Rs were not going to actually filibuster – i think the Ds could have insisted on the simple majority. ‘course maybe i have this wrong, but i haven’t seen any reason to think so yet.

that said, i completely agree that this campaign has been incredibly inspiring and motivating – very, very exciting to see how far we’ve come in these two years. good lesson on not giving up, things just take a loooong time.

my goal is to call and fax ever single senator before monday at noon. we’ll see if i can pull this one off. *g*

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Exxon Mobil made history on Friday by reporting the highest quarterly and annual profits ever for a U.S. company.

Exxon (XOM, Fortune 500) shares gained nearly 2% in pre-market trading on the news.

Exxon, the world’s largest publicly traded oil company, said net income rose 14% to $11.66 billion, or $2.13 per share, from $10.25 billion, or $1.76 per share a year ago.

That tops Exxon’s previous quarterly profit record of $10.7 billion set in the fourth quarter of 2005, which also was a record for any U.S. corporation.

Morning Christy…

I’ll post the free online fax link in a little while. I know it doesn’t work for some people as it does for me. There are software compatibility issues. I want to have a techie friend check out that website for any advice…

Yeah, I’m being funded by public money at the moment, think I need to wait until I get home.

could you spell that out a bit for those of us who are just waking up? Thanks.

Fiscal stim package will have no stim effect whatsoever. No new jobs will be created. No salaries increased. Some cash flows to mfgs off shore furthering increasing out debt.

Is it too late to act on Impeachment even so late in the Pres’s term. The Austin American Statesman, Stateman.com, had a very powerful column yesterday on the lies, again. Not only going to war, but lies, cover-ups about the deaths of ordimary soldiers. Impeachment would at least preclude a Presidential pension for these thieves….make it alittle harder to refill the “coffers”.

And it’s linked up in my post as well. *g*

Whoa. That really does not sound good at all.

The problem is not the public even 30%ers don’t like the idea of the government not having any oversight about wiretaps especially if Hilary is the next president. So the Dems can’t use the we are scared of public outcry excuse.
The problem is Bush wants to protect himself and the telecoms.
I think if we get the Telecoms talking we may find that the Bushies listened to political opponents as well as terrorists.
I think the problem is the telcoms are buying lobbyists to pass cash to Dems.

Good morning from L.A. Home fax machine is clicking along through its warm up right now…

My daughter Natalie & I used to make booklets of photos culled from old mags of the way we wanted our homes in the future to look. A fountain in the yard & a floor to ceiling bookcase were two features I remember she insisted her house must have.

Saved several of the more elaborate ones & gave them to her @ the housewarming party she & her fiance threw last year.

And it’s linked up in my post as well.

No it’s not. You linked to a much earlier and less informative post at EW.

It’s actually a small decline by recession standards. Which is why I forecasted more & bigger drops ahead. U.S. economy is skating on edge of recession. Remains to be seen whether it drops into one or brushes thru with stagnant economy for a couple of quaters. Fourth quarter growth was only 0.6%.

OK, now your guys (SanderO,eCAHNomics) are painting a very dismal picture.

What’s the upside, and can you offer any positive suggestions?

When we started with all of this, the issues was on very few radar screens — Feingold has been on this from the start, with a lot of behind-the-scenes cooperation from Leahy, actually. Dodd came around to it a bit later in the process, because he’s not on Judiciary it wasn’t completely on his radar screen early on, I think.

But most Senators are just now waking up to the fact that people out in the nation really do give a shit about this — and are watching them. Sad, but true, and all the more imperative that we keep the FAXes and calls going — preferably both. And if you layer on some more contacts to local offices, too, all the better.

It seems perfectly reasonable to me. I’m being paid with tax dollars so why not defend the constitution on the clock?

Apparently it doesn’t work that way.

Go figure.

Calling and FAXing here. Working my way down the list.

Exon should give half their profit to the troops who need healthcare and are homeless! Or we can Nationalize them.
Nationalized oil companies work great for the Saudis!

I think some of the 50 vote issues are poison pills anyway.

In order to move a senator with persuasive argument, you need to be specific. Feingold’s “strip Title II” amendment is set for a 50 vote margin That speaks volumes, to those who see through the fog of Senate and statutory rhetoric.

i don’t understand what you’re saying here about my comment? would you please explain slowly for those of us who don’t know the lingo? thanks.

How bout we nationalize Saudi Arabia?

well, it is now…meant to link up the later version, so chalk it up to lack of coffee this morning. Speaking of which, time for another cuppa…

And declare them a State that supports terrorism and seize their assets World Wide! Cause you know that Iran is not giving the Sunni guns!

Things that can’t go on forever won’t. In this case, we’ve hit our credit limit with the rest of the world, and they’re now treating us with “tough love.”

could you spell that out a bit for those of us who are just waking up?

The Senate agreed to take up and debate Feingold’s ”strip Title II” (the only ”no immunity” option on the menu, the others are smoke couched in statutory language, legalese, and specious arguments), on a simple majority basis, with no threat of filibuster by opponents to the amendment. The jig is up for retroactive immunity, all the Senate is doing is creating enough confusion and smoke that each Senator has a choice of arguments to present to his/her voters back home.

Yoga class gotta go bye

Don’t put me in the same boat as SanderO.

I look at this as a typical cyclical event in the economy. Each one of them (something like 7 ot 8 recessions since WWII) has had specific characteristics that make it different from the ones that have preceded it, and prophesies of doom & gloom always proliferate during the downturn, just like “irrational exhuberance” during the boom.

It has been unwise to bet against monetary & fiscal stimulus working, i.e., turning the economy around. Since I was an economic forecaster, I’ll not take that bet. But, of course, since we’re talking about the future, nothing is certain.

Is there a break out of the growth without oil and groceries yet?

The upside may be some serious banking regulations and outlawing some of these absurd financial instruments and perhaps stepping down on the allowable asset to lending ratio of banks.

Banks are chartered to lend up to 10 times their assets. When people run the banks the money is not there. It’s real voodoo economics.

You write a loan and then when it is deposited it shows on the books as an asset! hahahahaha This is how banks and financial institutions “create money” from thin air. All fine and dandy until there is run or in the case of MBS there was a big lie about their value. The crisis of confidence in credit has ensued and we will need to move to a more reality based finance system… when? Who knows. More moving down before that happens.

I don’t understand your Q.

Nationalized oil companies work great for the Saudis!

well maybe for the Royal ones

I am very encouraged that the “strip Title II” amendment is going to require only a simple majority, but I am very upset that the votes are scheduled for Monday and Tuesday. Is it too late to make a big push on Harry to start all of this on Wednesday so that Obama and Clinton can be present? Holding the bulk of the votes on Super Tuesday is another concession by Harry to remove two votes from our side (although I guess their side loses one in McCain and two if his lapdog is following him).

I think what would really help is if one of our video gurus could put together a little sample attack ad for the perusal of Collins, Smith, Coleman, and the other senators on the bubble.

It could just be a series of stills. But the theme is when the time came to choose between Verizon’s shareholders and your safety and privacy, Senator ______chose Verizon.

We have some interesting world economic problems which are new: peak oil driven in no small part by the industrialization of Asia, the destruction of our rust belt and manufacturing, the strain of required environmental demands, the rise of the Euro as a stable currency coupled with loss of confidence in the dollar, not to mention the bizarre financial instruments which are traded and hardly understood, the accumulation of wealth in a very small group.

The Fed used to be able to tweak the economy by messing about with the money supply, which used to stimulate spending and then job creation and manufacturing output. Doesn’t work that way now. Corporations changed all that.

How much of economic growth was the result of the inflated price of petroleum products and higher cost of food products. Or, more accurately, was ther growth outside of oil and groceries?

ECahn–

Did you see the NYT today on Chinese inflation?

Front page of the dead tree edition.

Also, meant to mention this above — but if your elected official happens to be in your area over the weekend? Feel free to show up at the event and ask questions about all of this. Or carry a sign. Anything to bring this front and center for them outside of DC.

I’ve been wondering if some picketing of AT&T and Verizon and such might not also be a good way to generate some heat on this issue. People with signs saying “How Dare You Turn Over My Private E-mails Without A Warrant?” or something.

I think what would really help is if one of our video gurus could put together a little sample attack ad for the perusal of Collins, Smith, Coleman, and the other senators on the bubble.

It could just be a series of stills. But the theme is when the time came to choose between Verizon’s shareholders and your safety and privacy, Senator ______chose Verizon.

I liker that! how dramatic should the background music be?

i don’t understand what you’re saying here about my comment?

On the “how to persuade Senators” aspect, I didn’t have any advice other than be specific. Their peers argue with them in terms of the proposed amendments, and IIMO, the public is more effective if it argues the same way. The more informed the debate, the more persuasive the position. Certainly, there are exceptions to this. I have posed a number of overaching themes that make good arguments. Congress carrying administration water and taking heat for something it didn’t screw up; compromising the institution of the Senate by gutting its own laws, etc. But even that needs to, depending on the Senator, explain why the options (Specter/Whitehouse – Feinstein) are unacceptable.

Oh, the growth number I cited is after inflation is subtracted, so-called “real” growth in the jargon. In this case, the higher prices you cite are one of the factors that is supressing real economic activity, as higher prices for necessities reduces consumers’ ability to spend elsewhere.

You don’t think that the Senator or Representative you are trying to get through to is really seeing or hearing any message you may have for them do you? They just get numbers from their staffers, percentages, demographics. I don’t believe they ever see anything that any of us actually write.

Well yes and no. This is NH and believe it or not we really do know our congresscritters. Yep we talk to them, call them (well not piggregg) and converse with them. I have been around NH politics for 30+ years and have good, and pleasant, contacts. Another reason why NH should still be first in primaries as we really “do” retail politics.

Nope, didn’t see article, as I’ve sworn off NYT since they hired Kristol. but I’ll take a look.

“More fed easing”

One of atrios’ fillins has a link to a blog that pulls out a Grieder article from 2003, noting that we are following the path Japan followed in the 90s. We have advanced considerably along that path since 2003, and now the questio is, in part, how will we go about recognizing assets, and loans against those assets, have not been accurately valued.

The Japanese response was to keep pushing on the rope, ending up in a liquidity trap. Are we approaching that situation, in your opinion?

Two bombs in busy Baghdad animal markets have killed at least 64 people.
The blasts, at least one of which was detonated by a female suicide bomber, came within 20 minutes of each other.

Friday morning’s death toll was the city’s highest since violence fell in the wake of a US troop surge in the second half of 2007.

Correspondents say a fragile sense of normality in the capital had followed significant security improvements since the troop surge.

A ceasefire announced in August by the Mehdi Army militia of Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr, as well as the emergence of local Sunni militia armed by the US military that took on al-Qaeda in Iraq, have also contributed to the sense of security.

Thanks. Will de-lurk no more.

No can do — once you de-lurk you have to hang around and chat with us chickens. *g*

long story short, ECahn, is that the weakened dollar, rising commodity prices and the inevitable upward compensation pressure in China is breaking the government’s position on holding prices, that the era of super cheap manufactured goods out of China may be ending.

Hard to believe they could hold that line for as long as they have, actually.

Senator Clinton, You have raised money hand over fist for Senator Mark Pryor’s reelection campaign this year.. Will you be able to bring him around to voting correctly this Monday? Will you even try?

but the surge is working, the surge is working

Is it too late to make a big push on Harry to start all of this on Wednesday so that Obama and Clinton can be present?

Pretty much. The Senate starts the FISA show, pretty well scripted by now, at about 2:00 p.m. Monday.

I also see that Reid mispoke last night, and the actual UC agreement has Feinstein’s 3910 (”exclusive means”) is also required to have a 60 vote supermajority, and instead of no limit on debate time, it’s been given 90 minutes.

OK so eCAHN just what can be done (Disregard politics please), immediately and long term, to get the dollar up, inflation down and the money back into the hands of the people.

From atrios for those wondering what the reduction in non farm payrolls means:

U.S. employers unexpectedly cut 17,000 non-farm jobs in January, the first time in nearly 4-1/2 years that U.S. payrolls shrank as fading construction and manufacturing sectors reflected the economy’s waning momentum.

—

My bold.

A ceasefire announced in August by the Mehdi Army militia of Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr, as well as the emergence of local Sunni militia armed by the US military …

IMO, that unilateral cease-fire made a significant impact in changing the rate of violence. One of many untold stories.

the others are smoke couched in statutory language, legalese, and specious arguments

if i understand you, this is the part i disagree with.

practically, an amendment that is unacceptable to cheney (regardless if it has anything to do with immunity) can help undermine immunity if the dems have the votes and procedural upper hand to pass the poison pill amendment. even if the final bill contains immunity – there is no immunity if the administration feels compelled to veto the bill.

furthermore, as marcy has been saying, this fight is not only about immunity – there are other important principles at stake, some of which, i think, are addressed by amendments that will be voted on next week. is not whitehouse’s amendment on the issue of minimization? and is not difi’s amendment the fall back position to immunity?

do i misunderstand the content of the bills?

The GIfford book (China Road) that I talked about yesterday in the human rights post that I did goes into a lot of detail on how that dichotomy of success in the large cities and inflationary concerns versus the reality of rural poverty and people fleeing those areas for the cities. You get the feeling through the whole book that impending doom is just around the corner, ready to implode at any second, but it’s being held together by smoke, mirrors and a lot of tap dancing by the Chinese government.

It’s been “only a matter of time” for a long, long time. And they hold a shitload of our debt…

nomolos–

You didn’t ask me, but the obvious candidate is a public works program, focused on crumbling infrastructure.

Dollar is not gonna be up for quite a while. There is an awful lot of dollar denominated debt out there on world markets.

That’s, of course, something of a good thing, because it will be good for US exporters. Not so hot for consumers, and consumers have been staving off the recession up to now.

I think you have that right. Immunity is the stage on which Cheney has been waging his battle, but Feingold’s vcarious amendments bringing the bill back in line with 4th amendment requirements are going to pose a problem for the Administration as well, and are likely to draw veto potential if they pass.

Also, and this is a huge part of the calculus here, the House RESTORE version will have to be merged with the Senate version before a whole bill is sent to the WH for vote. Who gets on the conference committee from both sides will be a key issue on how that is done.

Which is why continued pressure on all of this is imperative.

OT: I used to think that friends don’t let friends link to Faux News, especially if Ann Coulter is on, but this has to be seen to be believed. Ann says she’ll campaign for Hillary if McCain is the Republican nominee:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuTqgqhxVMc

NYTimes on chinese inflation

Yes, Christie, one has long had the sense of a pending explosion.

Soaring energy and raw material costs, a falling dollar and new business rules here are forcing Chinese factories to increase the prices of their exports, according to analysts and Western companies doing business here.

The rise was a modest 2.4 percent over the last year. But even that small amount, combined with higher energy and food costs that also reflect China’s growing demands on global resources, contributed to a rise in inflation in the United States. Inflation in the United States was 4.1 percent in 2007, up from 2.5 percent in 2006.

Because of new cost pressures here, American consumers could see prices increase by as much as 10 percent this year on specific products — including toys, clothing, footwear and other consumer goods — just as the United States faces a possible recession.

Also, MS bids 45 billion for Yahoo. Consolidation in the rapidly maturing software business continues.

Thanks. I like the idea of public works. National railroad would work for me!>

This was intresting

consumers have been staving starving off the recession up to now.

I took the liberty of editing.

Good Morning
Reading around I found Boomans FISA summary
http://www.boomantribune.com/s…..2057/74988
Maybe it will help me make sense of things.

the actual UC agreement has Feinstein’s 3910 (”exclusive means”) is also required to have a 60 vote supermajority

that’s exactly the kind of thing i’m complaining about. why the heck did the dems cave on that one?

There is always a risk of pushing on a string.

I’m not a Japan expert, so don’t take my evaluation as definitive. But I think the differences are that Japan ran out of monetary stimulus (i.e., interest rates dropped to zero) before the economy pulled out of the post-real estate bubble. Also, Japanese fiscal stimulus was flawed, as it was oriented to “infrastructure” projects in rural Japan, whereas they needed to stimulate consumer spending. U.S. Congress fiscal stimulus package is not as targeted as I would like, but it’s still oriented in the right direction.

So my guess is that the U.S. in not (yet) in a situation analogous to Japan in the the late 1980s.

Feingold’s vcarious amendments bringing the bill back in line with 4th amendment requirements are going to pose a problem for the Administration as well

Not just from the Congress. Part of the USA PATRIOT Act is similarly under an adverse ruling regarding the difference between “a purpose” and “a significant purpose” being used to bootstrap probable cause out of thin air.

I don’t recall the case off the top of my head, but my point was that we have a three part system of government, not two part.

Who gets on the conference committee from both sides will be a key issue on how that is done.

I will be very surprised if there is a conference committee. This can pass between the two bodies with minor changes, or pass the house as amended by the senate.

The Senate bill is going back to the house in the vehicle of HR 3773.

Funny, Exxon was the sponsor of the finale of our Fourth of July fireworks show, Red, White and Boom. They had “The Fall of the Republic” piece from Star Wars as the music sinc to the display…Hmmm…My 15 year old was totally freaked out by the whole thing and thought Exxon was sick…

Likewise, will anti-immunity Obama convince his campaign co-chair Claire McCaskill to vote against immunity as well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuTqgqhxVMc

People actually watch that crap?

Not yet, it’s not. Hence the need for pressure. I’m not content to accept that things cannot be improved, and you shouldn’t be either. Had we sat around and just taken what they gave, Bush would already have his telecom immunity and this would have been done months ago.

Not. Giving. Up.

Weaker U.S. economy will bring down inflation, as will the normal response to higher oil prices (i.e., reduced demand and higher supply). Inflation is not a problem by the standards of the 1970s and 1980s.

The forex value of the dollar is another issue, and I don’t have any good ideas about that. There are very few policies that have any near term influence on forex markets, which tend to respond more to long term trends.

We don’t want a stronger dollar right now, as its weakness helps crimp imports and spur exports, both of which help U.S. real growth in the short run.

I found Boomans FISA summary

First I’ve seen it. It’s a very good dictionary for the shorthand being used by the players and observers.

Who gets on the conference committee from both sides will be a key issue on how that is done.

Which is why continued pressure on all of this is imperative.

amen to that!

and i’d like to point out, to anyone who’s not convinced that calling/faxing now is important, no matter how well scripted the kabuki is, the possibility of a monkey wrench is real – and if something happens to throw people off their script, their response to an unforeseen event can be significantly affected by the pressure we have been putting on our senators. see dec. 17, 2007.

I’m not content to accept that things cannot be improved, and you shouldn’t be either.

Don’t mistake a steely-eyed view for contentment.

Is it too late to make a big push on Harry to start all of this on Wednesday so that Obama and Clinton can be present?

OK – dumb question time – for the votes that require 50 or 60 – do they actually require that many votes or do we really need one-half or three-fifths of the Senators actually present in the Senate when the vote occurs?

The passage you cite tells the reason why higher Chinese inflation is not a big problem for the U.S. Quantitaively, it is not virulent enough (it’s actually a miracle that Chinese inflation is so low after such a long period of high growth), given the percentage of Chinese goods U.S. buy, to have much influence on U.S. inflation.

Not yet, it’s not. Hence the need for pressure. I’m not content to accept that things cannot be improved, and you shouldn’t be either. Had we sat around and just taken what they gave, Bush would already have his telecom immunity and this would have been done months ago.

Not. Giving. Up.

Thank you Christy, you keep me dialing!

And the Senate bill IS going back to the House in the vehicle of HR 3773. That’s written in the UC agreement – plus it’s one of the things Reid didn’t screw up in his oral delivery yesterday.

Pryor, Landrieu, Ben Nelson, Lieberman..

for the votes that require 50 or 60 – do they actually require that many votes or do we really need one-half or three-fifths of the Senators actually present in the Senate when the vote occurs?

The margins are simple majority of those present and voting (”50″ is just convenient shorthand), and the 60 vote margins are numerically 60, 3/5’s of Senators duly seated.

CHS
Sorry for hijacking part of your thread, but thought the jobs data, which were released at 8:30, were important.

The Senate does not control the House calendar. Nor can they force a bill down the House’s throat. And I have it on good authority that a number of folks in the House are pissed.

I don’t just pull shit out of thin air — and I’m still not giving up.

selise

on Democrats caving.

I think the simplest explanation is that a majority of Senate democrats supported the SSIC version from the beginning, and still support it.

So they didn’t “cave.” They were doing what they wanted to do.

That’s why the bill has been set up for passage at the ends of sessions, up against recesses, so FISA could be passed without notice or media coverage.

As more than a few people have noted, there is no constituency for telecom amnesty. If constituencies become aware of it, then people who support it will nonetheless have to vote the other way. This, IMO, may be especially true of republicans facing tough races.

So, to be way too elementary here, what we’re doing is letting them know that a number of their constituents ARE aware of this, and hoping that this will leech into the media.

But you really need to take as a starting point what Glenn has been saying from the outset–a majority of senators, including around a dozen democrats, support both the evisceration of the 4th amendment and not applying the rule of law to either the administration or to the telecoms.

Now, wrt Jello Jay, that may have something to do with his complicity in having this all take place without anyone’s knowledge. But that still means that he supports the positions he’s been voting for.

What’s going on is not “caving.” What’s going on is citizen pressure to vote constituent interest rather than donor interest.

No problem. It’s interesting to read the back and forth. Econ has never been my strong suit, so it’s fun to learn as I read along the disperate arguments and data bits.

KO hit outta the park!

Glad you posted it haven’t been watching the tube.

We know that to be the case for Rockefeller. Jane had a chart showing the donations to him by the Telecoms. The donations soared and then he supports immunity in the intelligence version of the bill. Pathetic. You know what that makes him?

completely agree about the majority of senators – but stopping a UC only takes one.

off to get some stuff done and then to the phone/fax. catch you all later, and many many thanks to all who are calling and faxing. my calls would be useless without yours.

yeah, but we’re past that now, selise. This series of votes was agreed to by Dodd and Feingold. So now it’s about changing votes.

SPEAKING of economics

Economic Senate hearing, Schumer chair on CSPAN 1 now

Those telecom donations have a lot more to do with the telecoms ramping up on net neutrality — and corresponding with when the Dems took over. If you think for a moment that any campaign donation in any amount is going to make a bit of difference to Jay ROCKEFELLER, then you don’t really know Jay. It may buy some access, and chat time, but he has a very stiff spine about doing the thing he thinks is proper in terms of subject. In this case, it’s more likely that he was swayed by arguments that hand-picked intel people were making in closed session than anything else.

And I say this having had the man as my Senator for most of my life. And knowing what makes him tick — they appealed to his overdeveolped sense of ethics and bi-partisanship. The man is a Rockefeller, the money the telecoms have donated is a drop in the bucket to what he has.

it’s good to publisize that all of this is because the vice president didn’t shut his face

he needs to go back in the shadows where nobody can see him but his wife and his dog

Thanks for the heads up.

Yes, a smack back at Mr. Statement Against Interest was warranted this morning, I thought. If only because Senators need to know we know they’ve been duped all along.

and they’re talking about the numbers you reported

i want to understand what has happened and why, because it helps me understand what we’re up against.

and besides, it just happened last night – surely you don’t expect me to be “past it” already? with no analysis or response? *g*

isn’t that like the third or fourth time I’ve read that over the past couple of years?

do i misunderstand the content of the bills?

I think you understand the amendments, and I agree with your point that if there is an unacceptable Title I aspect, a presidential veto kills the Title II (immunity) material as well.

Which amendment or amendments that have a chance of being passed are also poison pills? That’s tough to tell. A few are in grey areas. I pointed out to Marcy yesterday, also beware of the “as modified” or “modified if agreed to” lingo.

Yes, I switched. Schumer’s doing a good job of describing the econ environment. He must have a good economist/writer on staff.

The Senate does not control the House calendar. Nor can they force a bill down the House’s throat. And I have it on good authority that a number of folks in the House are pissed.

Agree on all points.

You predict a conference, I predict absence of conference. Big deal.

Greenwald isnt too optimistic about this.
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/index.html

Well unfortunately I have to deal with Sens. Clinton and Schumer, and my Rep has his heart in the right place, and votes the right way but he comes off as ineffective and shows no leadership.

How about:
Want to read my e-mails?
If you have nothing to hide,
Why not get a warrant?

It reverses the right wing call-in argument.

stopping a UC only takes one

Stopping a UC (or changing some aspect of a UC — this happens OFTEN) takes UC to agree to the revision.

yeah, but we’re past that now, selise. This series of votes was agreed to by Dodd and Feingold. So now it’s about changing votes.

That is part of the problem..no Senator is willing to “cross the line” and object to all UCs. With this UC agreement, I don’t see how it can be stopped in the Senate..the next firewall is the HR.

Demand-side economic policies?

No, in this case, the Senators who were most likely to object to a UC were brought on board to negotiate the terms on this. Feingold and Dodd were, by all reports that I’ve heard, involved in crafting this. And signed off on it. Which makes a UC objection highly unlikely.

nomolos

It occurs to me I answered your inflation Q wearing my macroeconomic forecaster hat. I do not mean to dismiss the pain that higher inflation causes for comsumers, especially those in the middle and bottom of the income spectrum. That has already happened, and now the powers-that-be must decide what to do about it.

On another note, but also relevant, it seems that the DoJ wants to go after Risen and the Times for finding out the source of a leak. How quaint.

Hard to know what to say.

Free Fax Online

May not work for everyone. There may be software compatibility issues. Please do the following before using:

Check: Coverage; Client Software; Server Software; and Qustions and Answers. Buttons on top right of page.

On another note, but also relevant, it seems that the DoJ wants to go after Risen and the Times for finding out the source of a leak. How quaint.

Hard to know what to say.

that’s the intent, no?

I love hearing them trash their own candidate.

And maybe they think that an endorsement from Coulter will sink Hillary’s candidacy.

They baffle me.

I think that’s right, Steve-AR.

Keep in mind that Dodd and Feingold have to be able to function in the senate–and that no filibuster can last forever in any case. These issues are now going to be debated openly, and people will have to vote based on the record. It’s now up to constituent pressure to change votes.

And, no, I agree with the comment above that this won’t get changed in conference–that the House will accept the Senate bill.

But I want to be very clear that this is not a question of party discipline or “caving.” This is what a dozen or so democratic senators want to pass, including Reid. There may be party discipline successes on the other side; I have no idea how Hagel or Snowe really feel about this bill. But it’s pretty clear that a good chunk of the caucus supports telecom amnesty and broad surveillance power with no oversight. You must have seen the clip of Feingold and his Blackberry. He’s been very clear. Dodd was very clear. Kennedy’s line about choosing the telecoms interests over national security was very clear. They know what they are voting for.

That is very interesting. Thanks!

Link please..?

Think of it as outrageous statements for blantant self-promotion purposes and outright begging for free media hype. Then it all makes much more sense. It’s infotainment…with very little emphasis on the “info” part of things.

OY!
Never mind…

Christy,

Thank you for the KO clip above. A wonderful piece. Wish we could do a mass distribution to all Senators. A “he speaks for me” mass distribution. I’m sure they would love getting TONS of letters with KO’s special comment attached. Or maybe have KO repeat that piece in a very public forum…with lots of people support…

Well. You were right yesterday Christy. They haven’t caved. It would have been better to be fighting off amendments to the SJC version. But 50 vote margins on those important amendments is nothing to sneeze at.

cool, i’ll try the e-mail method later today.

So they didn’t “cave.” They were doing what they wanted to do.

That’s the way I see it too. But they have voter constituency issues as well, and they have a tendency to set up complex fact and vote patterns in order to bamboozle the voters.

erg, still groggy and working on coffee.

What are some fine points to fax to spector?

Per cboldt’s list at #25, there are 17 ammendments to be voted on, a few of which make the bill more evil than it already is. The rest are good in that they get rid of immunity and/or basket warrants, or simply make the bill unacceptable to Bush/Cheney (aka poison pills). It would be well if we could be specific and focused in our communications with senators, and I for one would appreciate some guidance from our more knowledgeable littermates.

Last week, Harry Reid showed vestiges of spine when he announced that he’d force the Republicans to actually filibuster or accept simple-majority votes:

[I]f people think they are going to talk this to death, we are going to be in here all night. This is not something we are going to have a silent filibuster on. If someone wants to filibuster this bill, they are going to do it in the openness of the Senate.

Via yesterday’s agreement, he backed down; per Glenzilla:

The amendments the GOP likes (i.e., the Bond/Rockefeller amendment to change the Intelligence bill to match Dick Cheney’s demands by increasing eavesdropping powers further still), as well as those that can’t get 50 votes, are subject to the requirement of simple majority. The ones that can get 50 votes but which the GOP dislikes must get 60 votes. If you’re Mitch McConnell, what’s not to like about any of this?

Retire?

It’s not optimal — but it’s better than nothing. And it gives us a chance to keep fighting for something better.

But I still wish the SJC or RESTORE Act would have been the base bill. C’est la vie, I suppose.

Definitely. People on this thread have been following this issue for months, and we are confused about what’s happening. That means the media has no clue, and the public is going to get whatever spin the white house and the Leader’s spin offers.

Unless we can get enough people to make enough phone calls to change some votes–to prove the bamboozlement failed.

sure, that’s a nice way to put it :)

Thanks for this Christy. It validated some of what I had been thinking about JR, and cleared up a lot of other q’s I had.

Boomans summary of FISA [I think this is a good dictionary for the shorthand terms]

Repeating the link found at post #92, posted by snowbird42

Thanks! Got it.

I know you disagree ecahn and I am just a lay person but I really don’t think the inflation has reached sea level yet

I think the countries that have our debt will be hard pressed to hang on to those dollars and if they do start to spend them, we will see inflation that matches viet nam days.

couple that with the prosepect of trading petro in any currency other then the greeny and we’re gonna be in serious brown I personally believe

of course I hope you are right, that they understand it’s against their interest to destabalize our greeny more then it is but governments aren’t always abel to show the kind of restraint they are going to have to show

BTW, I particularly liked this bit of the Special Comment:

Every time you looked at a naked picture, every time you bid on eBay, every time you phoned-in a donation to a Democrat.

To try to get this across to the “if you haven’t done anything wrong, you have nothing to worry about” crowd, and counter the meme of “it’s about eavesdropping on terrorists”, he hit the three big categories:

- Things that aren’t illegal, but that you be used to blackmail/pressure you.
- Business/financial information
- Political activity

Good language; let’s use it.

Finished faxing- some are still busy, but will try again later when I’m able.

BTW & IMO, it will take an act of God or the equivalent for Landrieu to go the right way on this. She fears a Repub candidate unseating her in fall & will vote w/them.

If you’re that big of a self-interested _______, & that self-interest overrides all, Mary Landrieu, step aside.

Need to drive in to work now. Read you all later.

Yep, we’ll agree to disagree.

When it comes to inflation, I tend to be unconcerned. There was really only one decade out of the six since WWII that it was a problem, the 1970s. And that was due to a whole host of domestic problems and bad policies that simply aren’t apparent now. Very strong demand, owing to guns & butter in the 1960s. Price controls followed by huge bulge thereafter. (IMO, Nixon price controls were the worst economic policy of the post-WWII period, until W.) A Fed policy that kept fostering inflation. (Arthur Burns was worst Fed Chair bar none.) All capped by first OPEC crisis.

1980s inflation got an initial boost with second OPEC crisis, but came down owing to anti-inflationary policies.

I agree with the comment above that this won’t get changed in conference

Not that it makes much difference, but I think there won’t even BE a conference. No naming of conferees, etc. The House might amend the HR 3773 that it gets back from the Senate (the RESTORE Act having been stripped out in toto, and replaced with Senate language), but whatever revisions may “need” to happen will be done by amendment and revote by the other body.

That is, if the House changes the bill by amendment, it’ll send THAT version back to the Senate for a vote on concurrence.

Not to say the House can’t have a knock down,drag out fight over stripping Title II, just like the Senate does. But they’ll have that debate under the legislative vehicle of HR 3773.

There is a possibility of irreconcilable difference, where the two bodies take mutually exclusive positions. I think that possibility is only theoretical (that’s a political calculation by me), but if the House insists on “strip Title II” and the Senate insists on “keep Title II,” the positions can’t be reconciled, and Congress stands mute.

There is a possibility of irreconcilable difference, where the two bodies take mutually exclusive positions. I think that possibility is only theoretical (that’s a political calculation by me), but if the House insists on “strip Title II” and the Senate insists on “keep Title II,” the positions can’t be reconciled, and Congress stands mute.

I can live with that. ;-)

Tell your son “good catch and good instincts”

I actually have always blamed the fed and nixon for trying accommodate the oil price rises through traditional Keynsian money illusion. They were unwilling to accept the recession that the embargo guaranteed, so we got a much longer period of stagflation instead. Took Volcker and Reagan recession to squeeze that shortsighted mismanagement out of the system. And reversed Nixon’s famous “we are all Keynesians now” statement in record time.

But House Dems can’t live with that. They’ll be blamed for endangering US security, and with the senate bill in their laps,it will be hard for them to stand up.

You would think that after the Mukasey testimony the other day and the signing statements on the Defense bill, the Democrats and even some of the Republicans in the Senate would have some sense of outrage over the way that this administration disrespects their institution.

If true, hopefully this outrage will spill over into the FISA fight.

Um, it was a Volcker recession. Reagan’s fiscal policy was stimulative. Kenysian statement not reversed, even more so if Reagan’s fiscal policy had been contractionary.

But they’re agreeing to surveillance. What they aren’t agreeing to retroactive immunity; they’re insisting that crimes be tried in court not in congress.

“Outrage” is the only rational response to this stuff, and KO expresses it so well that he brings tears to my eyes.

UC Agmt. – modified amendments

The above link includes the text of modified Feingold 3909 (FISC reports to Congress); modified Whitehouse 3932 (procedure for government appeal from adverse FISC order); and modified Bond 3945 (to strike the time limitation for certain appeals).

The text that appears there has been passed by unanimous consent, and is now part of the proposed bill.

I know the amendments just came out last night and are probably still being analyzed by the smart kids in the class, but at some point I think it would be helpful if we had a list of the amendments that we should be asking our Senators to support/oppose and reasons why.

I’m tempted to just ask them to support anything with Feingold’s name on it, but hate to go in blind.

Thanks for spotting those — was wondering about the Feingold FISC amendment. I’m surprised they argeed to UC on that, frankly — I expected a vote on that one.

was wondering about the Feingold FISC amendment. I’m surprised they argeed to UC on that, frankly — I expected a vote on that one.

Beware the “as modified” lingo.

I’m in the process of comparing 3909 as filed, and 3909 as modified.

The modification of 3909 is the addition of language to permit redaction of the papers submitted to Congressional committees.

Spector’s fax must jammed cause fax isn’t going through.

Not that i had anything profound to say. More than likely came off sounding like a cspan winger.

Which makes a UC objection highly unlikely.

I just want to reiterate or emphasize the procedural aspect – not only is a UC objection highly unlikely, a UC objection is outside the rules.

Sometimes UC agreements are modified by a further UC, but usually to change the time of taking a vote or some other non-substantive point.

It takes UC to undo a UC. Simple objection to a UC is without force.

Hey cboldt. In case you hadn’t noticed, in his update, Glenn Greenwald has linked to your analysis of the amendments.

Thanks for that fine service to the community.

i’m never going to get my chores done today… just read glenn’s piece on the UC, and i’m more inclined towards his view.

i don’t the gop caved – i think dems, for the most, part did. i see no reason for agreeing to a 60 vote requirement for passage on any of the bills. hard to see what they got in return for that, other than a potential end to the conflict and passage of another bad bill.

this is in no way is meant to say our lobbying efforts won’t be successful – just that i don’t think they were when it comes to this UC.

Either way, what we have to work with is forcing external pressure on them, and trying to sway the wavering folks toward doing what is right under the rule of law.

It’s not a lot, but it’s the best we have at the moment, and thus I keep on FAXing…

Sideline … President Bush Signs H.R. 5104 Into Law

Thanks for that fine service to the community.

Yeah, you say that now, but I’m an equal opportunity basher. LOL.

Thanks for pointing out that Greenwald found the summary useful, albeit “technical.”

FWIW, BooMan has another post up with some good talking points for Senate calls and FAXes. I’ve updated above with a link, but wanted to be sure folks saw it.

Hi Christy,

Thanks for staying focused on FISA when it’s so easy to be distracted by the elections etc. I’m still bumming about Edwards dropping out.

Would it be naive to think that Cheney might just go ahead and “lose” our emails like he lost his own? /s

haha rhetorical question.

Here’s a great article about how the PAA act endangers our country. The opening line:

“Although the Bush administration calls it a vital weapon against terrorism, its domestic wiretapping effort could become a devastating tool for terrorists if hacked or penetrated from inside, according to a new article by a group of America’s top computer security experts.”

its domestic wiretapping effort could become a devastating tool for terrorists if hacked or penetrated from inside

It sets up some interesting ways that one could “frame” an innocent person.