Good morning Christy!

KO really smoked em last night.

Good Morning Christy!
don’t suppose you’re weather’s any better than ours

Hey Christy,

Thanks for the phone list, we’ve got work to do!

Morning all. Elliott, it’s raining and miserably gray, but The Peanut and I are planning to make collages out of old magazine picures today, so we’ve decided not to care.

These votes are coming very close — Monday and Tuesday for the bulk of them, it looks like. So we really have to hit the phones and FAXes starting today.

Good. And let’s pay close attention to the actors in coming debate and votes. Let’s mark down those who have abandoned the constitution, and hold them accountable, regardless of party. There are two clear avenues here. One is marked by fear and supression, the other by our founding fathers.

thanks for the link to the C&L KO clip… that’s all the KO i get to watch.

… i’m very concerned about the votes that are going to require 60 votes to pass. whatever did the dems cave on that for???!!

… will start calling and faxing this afternoon. thank you, christy, for the call to act. i’m going to be demanding FISC oversight of minimization activities - not just procedures - as well.

p.s. i made a youtube of harry reid’s statement on the UC yesterday (i wanted an excuse to make a youtube, now that i have c-span via cable tv instead of having to rip their real player webstreams). i love the look on reid’s face when he talks about how brilliant feingold is and how he carefully looks at every bit of the language.

oragami mammy!

From everything I’m hearing, the negotiations were ugly, tense, and not at all easy on any of the sides. And that Feingold and Dodd’s staffs were VERY involved in all of it. The GOP knew what they were doing in demanding the 60 vote margins onseveral of these — those would likely have passed by 50 votes, so it makes things harder to round up the rest of the votes.

But they expected the Dems to cave altogether a few weeks ago and we’re still fighting. Damned if I’m giving up now. And if we can pull along some of the wavering GOP folks, so much the better, eh?

Well good morning!

Just because they are sleeping here on the left coast doesn’t mean it’s too early to call D.C.!

OT
January nonfarm payrolls DOWN 17,000.

selise,
I think some of the 50 vote issues are poison pills anyway. AND we will struggle to get the 51 votes. Don’t forget, Darth has the tie breaker if need be. UGH.

The FAX machines ought to be working pretty much any hour of the day in most of the offices. *g*

That Special Comment was effing amazing!
All critters in the SJC need to see that.
All critters in congress need to see that.
All muricans need to see that.

Right on KO!

I just sent out an SOS to the new group we’ve started up outside of the congregation. Another 30-40 troopers added to our efforts.

Oh, that’s not good…

English please…

Nope. But it means more Fed easing.

last time I tried faxing to Specter, his machine either didn’t answer or gave busy signals. I think he doesn’t want to hear from us.

why are there two 19’s?

that was wierd

Hey Nineteen

Steely Dan

I ‘m sorry I thought that you could not make a crime not illegal in a one shot deal unless you made it not illegal all the time. So is what Darth wants is retroactive or PERMANENT immunity? If Darth gets his way then can the Telecoms keep giving Bush everything he asks for? Are there ANY limits or oversight to prevent abuses? Is there any public oversight?
Where is the GOP on this Bush is almost gone do they really want Hilary to have this power? I cannot believe that is what Darth wants otherwise Haliburtron with all the investigations regarding war profiteering won’t be able to use their phones or emails to talk to their lawyers.
Unless FISA respects Attorney Client privilege?

Summary of the UC Agreement, with brief summaries of amendments, links to amendment text, recitation of time allowed for debate.

That’s been online since about 10:30 p.m. EST.

I think some of the 50 vote issues are poison pills anyway. AND we will struggle to get the 51 votes. Don’t forget, Darth has the tie breaker if need be. UGH.

Gee, wonder how he’d vote on thise? hmmmm…

Damned if I’m giving up now. And if we can pull along some of the wavering GOP folks, so much the better, eh?

I keep calling and emailing Sununu and piggregg and I am running out of things to say. How the hell can I get them off their positions. I suggest to sununu that he is going to lose his seat this year if he does not stop voting for the war, for immunity and like a bloody bush puppet and as for gregg I expect I would get more sense from a coat of paint.

I will keep calling anyway.

We are heading fast to economic melt down.

The “financial” institutions are selling “instruments” which have no value… and the emperor’s clothes are coming off. They call it a liquidity crises and blame it on the sub prime loans, but really they are all getting caught scamming these worthless financial instruments and “investors” are “running the banks” and the fed is printing more money (cheap) so that they can pay the demands. If they print enough, they will have turned the dollar into a totally worthless medium of exchange. Wheel barrel sales will skyrocket.

Banks and financial institutions have been creating “money” (financial instruments” out of whole clothe and thin air and selling them as “investments” and idiots have been buying this rubbish, sellers making fees and commissions of the sale of useless junk.

Fed is trying to save their co conspirators - the banks… and the stim package is yet another way to get some cash into them for all the debt they flogged.

Ain’t gonna work.

and what makes any of us think they would “allow” Hillary to become pres.? Unless they’ve already cut a secret deal, of course.

The number of people employed in the nonfarm sector declined by 17,000 in January. That included drops of 27,000 in construction, 28,000 in manufacturing, 18,000 in government, 11,000 in professional & business services, partly offset by increases in other services, notably a 47,000 rise in private education and health services.

You can expect to see further declines in jobs in coming months (monthly numbers are volatile so some bouncing around would not be unusual), further Fed easing, and perhaps a move to bump up the fiscal stimulus package more than House & Senate have already talked about.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

I think some of the 50 vote issues are poison pills anyway.

In order to move a senator with persuasive argument, you need to be specific. Feingold’s “strip Title II” amendment is set for a 50 vote margin That speaks volumes, to those who see through the fog of Senate and statutory rhetoric.

You don’t think that the Senator or Representative you are trying to get through to is really seeing or hearing any message you may have for them do you? They just get numbers from their staffers, percentages, demographics. I don’t believe they ever see anything that any of us actually write.

The GOP knew what they were doing in demanding the 60 vote margins onseveral of these — those would likely have passed by 50 votes, so it makes things harder to round up the rest of the votes.

exactly my point. seems like the dems had that upper hand on this, and gave it away. i mean, if the republicans wanted passage to require 60 votes, all they had to do was filibuster. for crying out loud, when are the Ds going to make the Rs pay a political price for their obstructionism? especially this time, when it was so clear that the Rs were not going to actually filibuster - i think the Ds could have insisted on the simple majority. ‘course maybe i have this wrong, but i haven’t seen any reason to think so yet.

that said, i completely agree that this campaign has been incredibly inspiring and motivating - very, very exciting to see how far we’ve come in these two years. good lesson on not giving up, things just take a loooong time.

my goal is to call and fax ever single senator before monday at noon. we’ll see if i can pull this one off. *g*

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Exxon Mobil made history on Friday by reporting the highest quarterly and annual profits ever for a U.S. company.

Exxon (XOM, Fortune 500) shares gained nearly 2% in pre-market trading on the news.

Exxon, the world’s largest publicly traded oil company, said net income rose 14% to $11.66 billion, or $2.13 per share, from $10.25 billion, or $1.76 per share a year ago.

That tops Exxon’s previous quarterly profit record of $10.7 billion set in the fourth quarter of 2005, which also was a record for any U.S. corporation.

Morning Christy…

I’ll post the free online fax link in a little while. I know it doesn’t work for some people as it does for me. There are software compatibility issues. I want to have a techie friend check out that website for any advice…

Yeah, I’m being funded by public money at the moment, think I need to wait until I get home.

could you spell that out a bit for those of us who are just waking up? Thanks.

Fiscal stim package will have no stim effect whatsoever. No new jobs will be created. No salaries increased. Some cash flows to mfgs off shore furthering increasing out debt.

Is it too late to act on Impeachment even so late in the Pres’s term. The Austin American Statesman, Stateman.com, had a very powerful column yesterday on the lies, again. Not only going to war, but lies, cover-ups about the deaths of ordimary soldiers. Impeachment would at least preclude a Presidential pension for these thieves….make it alittle harder to refill the “coffers”.

And it’s linked up in my post as well. *g*

Whoa. That really does not sound good at all.

The problem is not the public even 30%ers don’t like the idea of the government not having any oversight about wiretaps especially if Hilary is the next president. So the Dems can’t use the we are scared of public outcry excuse.
The problem is Bush wants to protect himself and the telecoms.
I think if we get the Telecoms talking we may find that the Bushies listened to political opponents as well as terrorists.
I think the problem is the telcoms are buying lobbyists to pass cash to Dems.

Good morning from L.A. Home fax machine is clicking along through its warm up right now…

My daughter Natalie & I used to make booklets of photos culled from old mags of the way we wanted our homes in the future to look. A fountain in the yard & a floor to ceiling bookcase were two features I remember she insisted her house must have.

Saved several of the more elaborate ones & gave them to her @ the housewarming party she & her fiance threw last year.

And it’s linked up in my post as well.

No it’s not. You linked to a much earlier and less informative post at EW.

It’s actually a small decline by recession standards. Which is why I forecasted more & bigger drops ahead. U.S. economy is skating on edge of recession. Remains to be seen whether it drops into one or brushes thru with stagnant economy for a couple of quaters. Fourth quarter growth was only 0.6%.

OK, now your guys (SanderO,eCAHNomics) are painting a very dismal picture.

What’s the upside, and can you offer any positive suggestions?

When we started with all of this, the issues was on very few radar screens — Feingold has been on this from the start, with a lot of behind-the-scenes cooperation from Leahy, actually. Dodd came around to it a bit later in the process, because he’s not on Judiciary it wasn’t completely on his radar screen early on, I think.

But most Senators are just now waking up to the fact that people out in the nation really do give a shit about this — and are watching them. Sad, but true, and all the more imperative that we keep the FAXes and calls going — preferably both. And if you layer on some more contacts to local offices, too, all the better.

It seems perfectly reasonable to me. I’m being paid with tax dollars so why not defend the constitution on the clock?

Apparently it doesn’t work that way.

Go figure.

Calling and FAXing here. Working my way down the list.

Exon should give half their profit to the troops who need healthcare and are homeless! Or we can Nationalize them.
Nationalized oil companies work great for the Saudis!

I think some of the 50 vote issues are poison pills anyway.

In order to move a senator with persuasive argument, you need to be specific. Feingold’s “strip Title II” amendment is set for a 50 vote margin That speaks volumes, to those who see through the fog of Senate and statutory rhetoric.

i don’t understand what you’re saying here about my comment? would you please explain slowly for those of us who don’t know the lingo? thanks.

How bout we nationalize Saudi Arabia?

well, it is now…meant to link up the later version, so chalk it up to lack of coffee this morning. Speaking of which, time for another cuppa…

And declare them a State that supports terrorism and seize their assets World Wide! Cause you know that Iran is not giving the Sunni guns!

Things that can’t go on forever won’t. In this case, we’ve hit our credit limit with the rest of the world, and they’re now treating us with “tough love.”

could you spell that out a bit for those of us who are just waking up?

The Senate agreed to take up and debate Feingold’s ”strip Title II” (the only ”no immunity” option on the menu, the others are smoke couched in statutory language, legalese, and specious arguments), on a simple majority basis, with no threat of filibuster by opponents to the amendment. The jig is up for retroactive immunity, all the Senate is doing is creating enough confusion and smoke that each Senator has a choice of arguments to present to his/her voters back home.

Yoga class gotta go bye

Don’t put me in the same boat as SanderO.

I look at this as a typical cyclical event in the economy. Each one of them (something like 7 ot 8 recessions since WWII) has had specific characteristics that make it different from the ones that have preceded it, and prophesies of doom & gloom always proliferate during the downturn, just like “irrational exhuberance” during the boom.

It has been unwise to bet against monetary & fiscal stimulus working, i.e., turning the economy around. Since I was an economic forecaster, I’ll not take that bet. But, of course, since we’re talking about the future, nothing is certain.

Is there a break out of the growth without oil and groceries yet?

The upside may be some serious banking regulations and outlawing some of these absurd financial instruments and perhaps stepping down on the allowable asset to lending ratio of banks.

Banks are chartered to lend up to 10 times their assets. When people run the banks the money is not there. It’s real voodoo economics.

You write a loan and then when it is deposited it shows on the books as an asset! hahahahaha This is how banks and financial institutions “create money” from thin air. All fine and dandy until there is run or in the case of MBS there was a big lie about their value. The crisis of confidence in credit has ensued and we will need to move to a more reality based finance system… when? Who knows. More moving down before that happens.

I don’t understand your Q.

Nationalized oil companies work great for the Saudis!

well maybe for the Royal ones

I am very encouraged that the “strip Title II” amendment is going to require only a simple majority, but I am very upset that the votes are scheduled for Monday and Tuesday. Is it too late to make a big push on Harry to start all of this on Wednesday so that Obama and Clinton can be present? Holding the bulk of the votes on Super Tuesday is another concession by Harry to remove two votes from our side (although I guess their side loses one in McCain and two if his lapdog is following him).

I think what would really help is if one of our video gurus could put together a little sample attack ad for the perusal of Collins, Smith, Coleman, and the other senators on the bubble.

It could just be a series of stills. But the theme is when the time came to choose between Verizon’s shareholders and your safety and privacy, Senator ______chose Verizon.

We have some interesting world economic problems which are new: peak oil driven in no small part by the industrialization of Asia, the destruction of our rust belt and manufacturing, the strain of required environmental demands, the rise of the Euro as a stable currency coupled with loss of confidence in the dollar, not to mention the bizarre financial instruments which are traded and hardly understood, the accumulation of wealth in a very small group.

The Fed used to be able to tweak the economy by messing about with the money supply, which used to stimulate spending and then job creation and manufacturing output. Doesn’t work that way now. Corporations changed all that.

How much of economic growth was the result of the inflated price of petroleum products and higher cost of food products. Or, more accurately, was ther growth outside of oil and groceries?

ECahn–

Did you see the NYT today on Chinese inflation?

Front page of the dead tree edition.

Also, meant to mention this above — but if your elected official happens to be in your area over the weekend? Feel free to show up at the event and ask questions about all of this. Or carry a sign. Anything to bring this front and center for them outside of DC.

I’ve been wondering if some picketing of AT&T and Verizon and such might not also be a good way to generate some heat on this issue. People with signs saying “How Dare You Turn Over My Private E-mails Without A Warrant?” or something.

I think what would really help is if one of our video gurus could put together a little sample attack ad for the perusal of Collins, Smith, Coleman, and the other senators on the bubble.

It could just be a series of stills. But the theme is when the time came to choose between Verizon’s shareholders and your safety and privacy, Senator ______chose Verizon.

I liker that! how dramatic should the background music be?

i don’t understand what you’re saying here about my comment?

On the “how to persuade Senators” aspect, I didn’t have any advice other than be specific. Their peers argue with them in terms of the proposed amendments, and IIMO, the public is more effective if it argues the same way. The more informed the debate, the more persuasive the position. Certainly, there are exceptions to this. I have posed a number of overaching themes that make good arguments. Congress carrying administration water and taking heat for something it didn’t screw up; compromising the institution of the Senate by gutting its own laws, etc. But even that needs to, depending on the Senator, explain why the options (Specter/Whitehouse - Feinstein) are unacceptable.

Oh, the growth number I cited is after inflation is subtracted, so-called “real” growth in the jargon. In this case, the higher prices you cite are one of the factors that is supressing real economic activity, as higher prices for necessities reduces consumers’ ability to spend elsewhere.

You don’t think that the Senator or Representative you are trying to get through to is really seeing or hearing any message you may have for them do you? They just get numbers from their staffers, percentages, demographics. I don’t believe they ever see anything that any of us actually write.

Well yes and no. This is NH and believe it or not we really do know our congresscritters. Yep we talk to them, call them (well not piggregg) and converse with them. I have been around NH politics for 30+ years and have good, and pleasant, contacts. Another reason why NH should still be first in primaries as we really “do” retail politics.

Nope, didn’t see article, as I’ve sworn off NYT since they hired Kristol. but I’ll take a look.

“More fed easing”

One of atrios’ fillins has a link to a blog that pulls out a Grieder article from 2003, noting that we are following the path Japan followed in the 90s. We have advanced considerably along that path since 2003, and now the questio is, in part, how will we go about recognizing assets, and loans against those assets, have not been accurately valued.

The Japanese response was to keep pushing on the rope, ending up in a liquidity trap. Are we approaching that situation, in your opinion?

Two bombs in busy Baghdad animal markets have killed at least 64 people.
The blasts, at least one of which was detonated by a female suicide bomber, came within 20 minutes of each other.

Friday morning’s death toll was the city’s highest since violence fell in the wake of a US troop surge in the second half of 2007.

Correspondents say a fragile sense of normality in the capital had followed significant security improvements since the troop surge.

A ceasefire announced in August by the Mehdi Army militia of Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr, as well as the emergence of local Sunni militia armed by the US military that took on al-Qaeda in Iraq, have also contributed to the sense of security.

Thanks. Will de-lurk no more.

No can do — once you de-lurk you have to hang around and chat with us chickens. *g*

long story short, ECahn, is that the weakened dollar, rising commodity prices and the inevitable upward compensation pressure in China is breaking the government’s position on holding prices, that the era of super cheap manufactured goods out of China may be ending.

Hard to believe they could hold that line for as long as they have, actually.

Senator Clinton, You have raised money hand over fist for Senator Mark Pryor’s reelection campaign this year.. Will you be able to bring him around to voting correctly this Monday? Will you even try?

but the surge is working, the surge is working

Is it too late to make a big push on Harry to start all of this on Wednesday so that Obama and Clinton can be present?

Pretty much. The Senate starts the FISA show, pretty well scripted by now, at about 2:00 p.m. Monday.

I also see that Reid mispoke last night, and the actual UC agreement has Feinstein’s 3910 (”exclusive means”) is also required to have a 60 vote supermajority, and instead of no limit on debate time, it’s been given 90 minutes.

OK so eCAHN just what can be done (Disregard politics please), immediately and long term, to get the dollar up, inflation down and the money back into the hands of the people.

From atrios for those wondering what the reduction in non farm payrolls means:

U.S. employers unexpectedly cut 17,000 non-farm jobs in January, the first time in nearly 4-1/2 years that U.S. payrolls shrank as fading construction and manufacturing sectors reflected the economy’s waning momentum.

—

My bold.

A ceasefire announced in August by the Mehdi Army militia of Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr, as well as the emergence of local Sunni militia armed by the US military …

IMO, that unilateral cease-fire made a significant impact in changing the rate of violence. One of many untold stories.

the others are smoke couched in statutory language, legalese, and specious arguments

if i understand you, this is the part i disagree with.

practically, an amendment that is unacceptable to cheney (regardless if it has anything to do with immunity) can help undermine immunity if the dems have the votes and procedural upper hand to pass the poison pill amendment. even if the final bill contains immunity - there is no immunity if the administration feels compelled to veto the bill.

furthermore, as marcy has been saying, this fight is not only about immunity - there are other important principles at stake, some of which, i think, are addressed by amendments that will be voted on next week. is not whitehouse’s amendment on the issue of minimization? and is not difi’s amendment the fall back position to immunity?

do i misunderstand the content of the bills?

The GIfford book (China Road) that I talked about yesterday in the human rights post that I did goes into a lot of detail on how that dichotomy of success in the large cities and inflationary concerns versus the reality of rural poverty and people fleeing those areas for the cities. You get the feeling through the whole book that impending doom is just around the corner, ready to implode at any second, but it’s being held together by smoke, mirrors and a lot of tap dancing by the Chinese government.

It’s been “only a matter of time” for a long, long time. And they hold a shitload of our debt…

nomolos–

You didn’t ask me, but the obvious candidate is a public works program, focused on crumbling infrastructure.

Dollar is not gonna be up for quite a while. There is an awful lot of dollar denominated debt out there on world markets.

That’s, of course, something of a good thing, because it will be good for US exporters. Not so hot for consumers, and consumers have been staving off the recession up to now.

I think you have that right. Immunity is the stage on which Cheney has been waging his battle, but Feingold’s vcarious amendments bringing the bill back in line with 4th amendment requirements are going to pose a problem for the Administration as well, and are likely to draw veto potential if they pass.

Also, and this is a huge part of the calculus here, the House RESTORE version will have to be merged with the Senate version before a whole bill is sent to the WH for vote. Who gets on the conference committee from both sides will be a key issue on how that is done.

Which is why continued pressure on all of this is imperative.

OT: I used to think that friends don’t let friends link to Faux News, especially if Ann Coulter is on, but this has to be seen to be believed. Ann says she’ll campaign for Hillary if McCain is the Republican nominee:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuTqgqhxVMc

NYTimes on chinese inflation

Yes, Christie, one has long had the sense of a pending explosion.

Soaring energy and raw material costs, a falling dollar and new business rules here are forcing Chinese factories to increase the prices of their exports, according to analysts and Western companies doing business here.

The rise was a modest 2.4 percent over the last year. But even that small amount, combined with higher energy and food costs that also reflect China’s growing demands on global resources, contributed to a rise in inflation in the United States. Inflation in the United States was 4.1 percent in 2007, up from 2.5 percent in 2006.

Because of new cost pressures here, American consumers could see prices increase by as much as 10 percent this year on specific products — including toys, clothing, footwear and other consumer goods — just as the United States faces a possible recession.

Also, MS bids 45 billion for Yahoo. Consolidation in the rapidly maturing software business continues.

Thanks. I like the idea of public works. National railroad would work for me!>

This was intresting

consumers have been staving starving off the recession up to now.

I took the liberty of editing.

Good Morning
Reading around I found Boomans FISA summary
http://www.boomantribune.com/s.....2057/74988
Maybe it will help me make sense of things.

the actual UC agreement has Feinstein’s 3910 (”exclusive means”) is also required to have a 60 vote supermajority

that’s exactly the kind of thing i’m complaining about. why the heck did the dems cave on that one?

There is always a risk of pushing on a string.

I’m not a Japan expert, so don’t take my evaluation as definitive. But I think the differences are that Japan ran out of monetary stimulus (i.e., interest rates dropped to zero) before the economy pulled out of the post-real estate bubble. Also, Japanese fiscal stimulus was flawed, as it was oriented to “infrastructure” projects in rural Japan, whereas they needed to stimulate consumer spending. U.S. Congress fiscal stimulus package is not as targeted as I would like, but it’s still oriented in the right direction.

So my guess is that the U.S. in not (yet) in a situation analogous to Japan in the the late 1980s.

Feingold’s vcarious amendments bringing the bill back in line with 4th amendment requirements are going to pose a problem for the Administration as well

Not just from the Congress. Part of the USA PATRIOT Act is similarly under an adverse ruling regarding the difference between “a purpose” and “a significant purpose” being used to bootstrap probable cause out of thin air.

I don’t recall the case off the top of my head, but my point was that we have a three part system of government, not two part.