If by chance all of Edwards supporters shifted to Obama rather than Clinton she would still win in the following states.

New York 56%C 28%O 10% E
Minnesota (Fall Poll) 47%C 22%O 16% E [2% Kucinich]
Massachusetts 59%C 22%O 11% E [Will Kennedy’s endorsement make a difference?]
New Jersey 49%C 32% O 10%E
Arkansas 57%C 17%O 14%E
Delaware 41%C 17%O 7%E

These would be toss ups, leaning Clinton

California 49% Clinton 38% Obama 9% Edwards
Utah 31%C 18%O 9%E
New Mexico 17%C 8%O 8%E [44% Richardson+Undecideds]

Lean Obama:

Alabama 28+16=44% vs. 43% Clinton
Tennessee 20+16=36% vs. 34% Clinton
Oklahoma 19+27= 46% vs. 44% Clinton

Georgia 41+13= 54% vs. 35% Clinton
Illinois 51+15=66% vs. 22% Clinton
Arizona 27+15= 42% vs. 37% Clinton
Connecticut 40+11=51% vs 40% Clinton
Colorado 34+17= 51% vs. 32% Clinton
Missouri 31+18=49% vs. 44% Clinton
Idaho 33+15=48% vs 31% Clinton

Very fanciful and some of these state polls are 4-5 months old, others just a week ago. But makes some interesting speculation.

The term “suspended” is merely so that he can obtain matching funds from the FEC when they comne out of adjournment so that he can clear his debt…and perhaps have a bit to donate to other candidates.

The only states where Edwards was polling above 15% on Super Tuesday are listed below…he’d get less than that since he withdrew from active campaigning.

California 9% New York 10% Massachusetts 11% Georgia 13% New Jersey 10% Connecticut 11%
Utah 9% New Mexico 8% Arkansas 14% Delaware 7%

Illinois 15% Alabama16% Minnesota 16% Tennessee16% Arizona 15% Oklahoma 27% Colorado 17%
Missouri 18% Idaho 15%

flu season started yesterday here in So Cal… kids dropping like flies at school… should be in full force by next Tuesday… wonder what that effect it will have? Younger people seem to be slammed much harder than us old folks…

HB, Busted!

(had a kid tell me he had a fever of 112 degrees – “Wow!” was all I could say ;-)

Interesting factor. Could disproportionately keep young-to-middle-aged married women at home…or maybe their mothers? Are these Hillary voters…or Obama voters?

Surprisingly there may be a lot of independents that show up at the polls that intended to vote for Ron Paul or McCain only to find they’ve been cut out of the Republican Primary. Will they opt to vote in the Democratic Primary for Obama? Or Hillary?

I’d think it’s older voters that might vote early…a lot of the walk ups might be younger voters and even Hispanic college students that might jump to Obama in the enthusiasm of what appears to be a lot of campus rallies planned over the next few days.

Of course this is in California…so who knows.

All I do know is that this Kucinich voter is going to vote for Obama after checking up on their head-to-head Senatorial voting records.

BTW talking about a snub. Did anyone know that Obama refused to join Lieberman’s centrist “Senate New Democratic Movement” back when he was elected to the Senate. That was the group that frequently stymied the progressive wing of the party by joining with the Republicans in the late 1990’s and up until today.

And AGAIN — there is a huge difference between voting, say, 3 days early — and voting a month early.

projected 50% of CA voting means just that a projection based on past voting. If Obama folks get a whole lot of “extras” to vote like in all the previous contests (except Fl because it wasn’t suppose to be a contest) then the 50% already voted will be a lesser percentage and won’t be as determinative.

So — others’ lives are “disrupted?” Oh, poor babies! The number of Americans whose lives are SO disrupted that they can’t vote within a few days of the actual election day — VERY FEW.

I guess we have to spell everything out here — OK, those having major super duper surgery — they can vote a month early. Who else? WHO wants to vote but can’t several days ahead?

I get so sick of this country going to hell in a handbasket — while Americans can’t be troubled to upset their lives to VOTE.