Whoo-Hoo!

Good News!

Wow … now let’s hope we also get Obama!

Obama does have a 4pm fundraiser scheduled in Washington DC

But, isn’t the vote scheduled for 4:30…

Excellent!

So, is it possible that it has penetrated the consciousness of her campaign staff that being involved in this and supporting Senator Dodd’s efforts could be considered a good thing?

Any word on whether she will vote no on any extension?

More breaking:

Hillary comes to FL!!!!
http://www.orlandosentinel.com…..1217.story

Jane… That would be brava Senator Clinton.. Bravo for males and many.. Brava for the females.

Now what do we need? 1/3 of those voting? McCain will probably be campaigning.

Paging the Junior Senator from Illinois.

The Junior Senator from Illinois, to the white courtesy phone . . .

Hmmmm wonder what made Hillary do dat?

Sorry to be OT but I ran into Al Franken last night in front of the Mn. convention center (boat show). Almost no one around. It was fun to chat for a minute. He asked if I would show up to caucus for him (5th?). Alas, I’m from North Dakota, so I will ask FDLers from Minnesota to please caucus for
Al-len(LOL). Here is his funny ad-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-bLcv7bs84

GOOD.

HRC deserves a Kudo or a Snickers or something.

This is important, dammit. Candidate, schmandidate. She’s my Senator, and this is her job.

I’ve emailed them, and they have been in communication, they just said they didn’t know what his schedule was going to be yet. So I sent another, hopefully we’ll know something soon.

Great news! Just got finishing emailing all the senators on Christy’s list re FISA (can’t make my Mac send out faxes for some reason). Let’s hope BO votes no as well.

I wonder if Obama realizes that he needs the party’s base as much as Hillary does. I’m definitely wondering about his priorities and whether he stands for anything. Now’s the time for him to prove whether he’s all hot air (the man can’t say anything in 25 words or less!) or if there’s some substance behind all that talk.

If we got her, we got him.

The magic number is 60 for cloture….59 to 41 is the same as 59 to 10. It’s the ~12 Bush Dogs + DiFi + Jay that control the outcome.

Yep I’m glad, I was going to have to reach for a new level of invective if they didn’t show up. (Call me crazy but now that Clinton is going I don’t see how Obama doesn’t.)

If you run into him again, ask him to drop by the Lake and chat for a bit.

Nothing special, mind you — all he needs to do is just come and toss in his two cents worth, like the rest of us.

maybe gettin’ her ass handed to her Saturday night?

If Obama doesn’t show up to vote, he’s handing Hillary and Edwards an easy campaign issue…

Didn’t Jello-Jay way he was planning to vote “No” to cloture?

I wish I had thought to do that. Bet he would have done it.

Is Edwards going to be is DC for the vote?

You’re right. Wonder why i was thinking 2/3 for cloture. Duh. I don’t know how many times I’ve heard that (and said it). Duh, again. So it doesn’t matter what we get, they have to get 60.

In other words, she got a “pass” to vote no, since her vote won’t make any difference anyway, but it sure makes her look good.

Call me crazy, too.

Per Matt Stoller’s analysis, pissing off the progressive wing of the Democratic party cost Obama the Nevada primary. If he’s a no-show wrt the FISA vote on Monday, I’ll do whatever little bit I can to sink him on Super Tuesday.

A little gentle *cough* pressure from FDL does it again, I see. :)

Di-Fi’s amendment got tossed without a vote too – think she’ll be pissed enough to vote “No”?

I don’t trust him..Jello and the Bush Dogs have had all weekend to work on a “face saving” plan..so they can vote for cloture.

True. Not gonna happen. Especially if he’s in town. Wonder if McCain will be. I read that he has no more money to spend in Florida so he’s outta here. He has to be here on election night, no?

Fantastic! I was able to contact all but four of the senators and candidates on Christy’s list this morning. It was great having the list on a Sunday since I cannot call while at work!

I spoke with human beings at both the Hillary and Barack campaigns, and asked that they spread the word about returning for the cloture vote to the
candidates. There must have been many, many of us!

Hey, glad to see you supporting the neglected art of the sound bite. Wouldn’t want political discourse to exceed a phrase length of about 10 to 12 words now, would we?

You’re crazy.

(We aim to please at FDL.)

A “no show” has the same result.

I don’t trust him..Jello and the Bush Dogs have had all weekend to work on a “face saving” plan..so they can vote for cloture.

I just emailed him also, for good measure. Can’t hurt.

Good news, Jane.

Does anyone know tomorrow’s schedule in the Senate?

You’re crazy.

Isn’t it a prerequisite…? *g*

From the Senate website:

Monday, Jan 28, 2008

2:00 p.m.: Convene and begin a period of morning business

3:00 p.m.: Resume consideration of S.2248, the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance bill.

8:30 p.m.: Proceed to the House of Representatives for the president’s State of the Union address.

I think Bayh will cave to enough pressure – plus he’s gonna want to follow Hillary’s lead…

How the fuck does Mary Landrieu look herself in the mirror every morning? George Bush fucked her state in a way that is unprecedented in the history of this country, and I good and goddamned guarantee she’ll vote with him again tomorrow…

Anybody know if HRC will speak or issue a statement against cloture? Would be very useful, she gets a lot of press.

Thanks, Peterr. I assume the vote on cloture is still set for 4:30 p.m.

I won’t call you crazy, but I will say congratulations and great job. It would not have happened without you.

Isn’t it a prerequisite…? *g*

Well, it certainly doesn’t hurt…

Cloture votes need 60 “yes” votes. Not voting is the same as a “no” vote. Obama doesn’t have to be there.

kiddo is sleeping on the bed. As usual he fell asleep during the movie we were watching. And I want to say good for you Senator Clinton. On your vote tomorrow. You are finally doing something that is expected of you as a Democrat.

Lahoma

I’m surprised with Inouye’s vote, our delegation is ranked among the top five for toeing the Dem line… And, Akaka voted properly… I find it amusing that he’s the first name they call to establish a quorum…!

I think the “panic” by Bush to get Tel-co immunity is not for the Tel-co’s but for immunity for Cheney, Bush and all of the other Thugs that broke the law. Same reason they are going to slip thru a bill legalizing nuc tech transfer to Turkey. Immunity for treason.

Good job, HRC.

Come on Barack, time to be a Democrat, not a dick like Lieberman.

4:30 PM when last we heard. Given the pushing and shoving going on, I wouldn’t be surprised if the time slips a bit — but not so long as to screw up getting over to the House in time to get some good seats.

Of course, I wouldn’t mind being wrong. If Dodd & Co. stuck it to Bush and kept talking and talking and talking, I could live with that.

C-SPAN does split screens all the time . . .

Hmmm. Strange timing on the piece?

Bush Looks to Beef Up Protection Against Cyberattacks

WASHINGTON — President Bush has promised a frugal budget proposal next month, but one big-ticket item is stirring controversy: an estimated $6 billion to build a secretive system protecting U.S. communication networks from attacks by terrorists, spies and hackers.

Administration officials and lawmakers say that the prospect of cyberterrorists hacking into a nuclear-power plant or paralyzing Wall Street is becoming possible, and that the U.S. isn’t prepared. This is “one area where we have significant work to do,” Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said in a recent interview.

The White House’s proposal has already dismayed lawmakers concerned about civil-liberties violations.

Leaders lead. This is a very good start.

Yeah but….. Can’t she beat him about the cranium with it if the guy shows up for a fundraiser but blows off a vote on a critical matter? Even if his vote isn’t needed?

Obama really should consider moving his fundraiser to 5:00 P.M., or it’s gonna cost him a lot more money down the road than he’s gonna collect there…

I’ve emailed them, and they have been in communication, they just said they didn’t know what his schedule was going to be yet. So I sent another, hopefully we’ll know something soon.

So it’s a matter of if he can fit his day job in (he hasn’t resigned from the Senate, or anything, has he?), he may be there, unless he can find something more important to do for his own self-interest campaign.

OT -

BooRadley — nice thoughts on the Jesus Seminar at the tail end of the Book Salon.

FDL does it again! I feel down right important.

Well. She found the one thing that could actualy earn my vote. I hope Obama shows up to. Leaders have to lead, even when they loose

Need time to go out and get a good buzz on before the speech, too.

If she and Obama fail to do the right thing, they will face the wrath of my blog.

Dodd would blow away Shrub’s lame duck SOTU, at least there’ll be no ‘bold’ policy initiatives announced… Thank god for small favors… ;-)

Was that the Idi Amin movie?

Die fighting, as Uncle Sam told me… ;-)

I faxed Senator Byrd and asked him to vote NO on cloture, and to also talk to Rockefeller and find out why he sold us out on FISA. I then sent a fax to Rockefeller telling him that I, and many other of his constituents, was appalled at his position on FISA. I questioned his monetary ties to the Telecoms and then requested that he please think of the country first by voting NO on McConnell’s cloture. Don’t know what good it will do, but I did let him know that many eyes were watching his vote on Monday, and that although he probably has his re-election in the bag, there could still be some serious repercussions if he didn’t do the right thing.

I’m gonna be listening for te stuff about the global AIDS crisis which some guy on FOX said last night – actually it was te first thing on his list of things “important to Bush” that Fucktard would talk about. Global AIDS crisis? Important to Bush? I missed that one. Guess I gotta watch FOX more.

Lord knows, that wrath cannot be wrought. GO THERS!

I’ve added an update — Senator Obama will be there too.

Looks like we’re gonna have quite a liveblog party, eh?

Much appreciated.

Back in the day, fucking nuts might have been closer. But I’ve matured.

MOST EXCELLENT!!!

Right On, Jane! most excellent…

Dang, I’ve become a Coke dispenser, today…

Great news, Jane – congrats to all who persuaded both Senators to..

show up for work

and

do the right thing

I called both and my critters, dole and burr, fat chance they will vote no unless all the people start calling them.

I wonder if having the next POTUS there and voting “NO” will have any affect on a Bush Dog?

Unfortunately, They(Obama and Clinton) are following.

What about their guy? Is McCain goin’ back? They’re all gona be in town for the speech, no?

Liveblog party! Hey there was talk of liveblogging on the front page of the NYT today. Had to snicker!

Sad that they need to be persuaded.

Then they’ll be in the audience for the SOTU too, eh?

Interesting.

Looks like we’re gonna have quite a liveblog party, eh?

hmmm, gotta figure a way to get some stuff wrapped up early tomorrow afternoon.

Y’all go ahead and start without me if need be. (I *hate* to miss a live-blog) *s*

Way to go! When does the party start? (and eat your heart out, GWB!).

NYT:

Breaking News 10:47 PM ET:
Gordon B. Hinckley, President of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, Is Dead at 97

Outtasight! Jane, you and the good ‘netters helped immensely with this, and Tim Russert can go shit in his hat if he thinks differently. :o)

I’m quite sure kiddo will have something to say about Hillary’s courage with her vote on cloture. Tomorrow. May the best be in all of your good hearts.

Goodnight.

L.

Then they’ll be in the audience for the SOTU too, eh?

Hopefully with big shit-eatin’ grins on their faces…

Goodnight, Lahoma. Obama too.

Great work Jane.. This crap needs to be put to rest so bushco and company can be impeached even after they are out of office!

I’ve added an update — Senator Obama will be there too.

Good, dammit.

Incidentally, Roy Edroso is pretty damn funny.

Saw that McCain supposedly won’t be attending SOTU because he’ll be campaigning in Florida, so guess he’ll be absent for the big FISA vote. Got an email from the Obama camp crowing about the victory in SC and asking for a donation. I’ve got no money for anyone who can’t be bothered to do the right thing on FISA. We’ll see tomorrow!

Dammit, what’s up with the linking?

I got an email this last week from John Edwards that asked me to contact my senators about FISA. I don’t recall any kind of overt donation-beggin’…

Yea, send Jenna on another mission. That’ell help

HIllary’s campaigning in FL? Guess that pledge doesn’t mean so much after the rout of SC?

McCain won’t be there????? That doesn’t seem right. It’s the ‘yes’ votes that count.

Sort of OT..but does anyone know what Barbara Mikulski’s problem is?
Using Howie Klein’s metric for rating congress persons, her score is just below Hillary and Leahy and better than Feinglod and Obama, yet she seems to vote Bush Dog on terra? I don’t get it.

Well, she’s not “campaigning” technically. Sounds like she came and gave a speech on the runway and had her picture taken with palm trees behind her.
I can’t blame her. I’m glad she showed her face. Still for Edwrads tho’.

Or as a response to the Obama campaign TV ads in Fla.

That should be pretty funny, watching Bush blast ‘em for their votes.

That’s some fine TeeVee.

Excellent! I was surprised earlier today while faxing the senators that all of them went through. It’s not unusual for the machines to run out of paper and stop answering. My computer automatically reschedules those faxes for later. It always happens when faxing many congress members.

Not today. Something tells me the staffs were in the offices over the weekend.

if your blogging it sure will be a wonderful TV venue.

Sweet fancy Moses.

As long as Typhoid George doesn’t try to kiss ‘em.

I was out of work that day and watched the FISA stuff in December and Aunt Babs surprised me. She has a rotary phone doncha know? Like, technology has improved, ya know and like, the Constitution didn’t envision, like cell phones an’ stuff so, like, it really doesn’t apply here.

The vote for cloture in December was what? 75?

We gonna lose again?

Beerfart Liberal January 27th, 2008 at 7:45 pm
63
In response to kiddo @ 47
Was that the Idi Amin movie?

________________

mornin’ y’all ..

that would be “The Last King of Scotland” (if you mean the one with Forest Whitaker).

it’s a really fine novel by the way……

Kudos to Edwards for bringing this issue up on the campaign trail. Both Clinton and Obama faced the prospect of being asked by Edwards at the next debate if leadership was so important a skill, why weren’t they in D.C. demonstrating it when it mattered.

Kudos to Dodd for making this possible. If he hadn’t been ready to throw himself in front of the bill Reid was pushing, we wouldn’t be getting this opportunity now.

Kudos to everyone who has written and called their congress critters. Now we have to keep that forward momentum going. Remember to let your senators know that telecom amnesty and no judicial oversight is NOT acceptable. We can be safe AND we can have the rule of law too; they are NOT exclusive.

For dems who might know for sure that there are insufficient votes to pass cloture, there is nothing to lose by voting against cloture. Thus far, only Hillary has promised to vote against.

amen to all of that.

and a very big thanks to Jane and Christy and Marcy. these women are what patriotism is really all about.

wow. This will be the first time I’ve watched these things WITH ANYONE. I was a around for bits and pieces last Thursday, but I cleared everything for tomrrow.
OTHER PEOPLE WHO CARE. What a concept.
c’ya then!

Right. Is that te one kiddo conked out on? Didn;’t kiddo just recommend that to me earlier tonight?

Bada bing. Obama, too.

Safe votes.

Like barn geese, no wings to fly with when it’s time for the flock to head out for the season.

So they stay in the barn where it’s nice and safe.

Yeah. Dodd was the guy who was really out front and deserves a ton of credit and admiration. And some schmucks and putzes said or suggested that he did it as a “campaign stunt”. Bums.

i don’t know. i just checked in about 15 min ago. it’s not yet 05:30 here in Dresden ….

Ooops. Sorry. i think kiddo recommended it ealier tonigt to me and lahoma said a little while ago that he fell asleep. But , yeah that was the movie. You see it? Good? What’s the weather there anyway?

That’s great news!!! Great job Jane and all who wrote and called and such!! :-)

Yay!

This is great news. And they should do more. They should showcase the nastiness and the implications of the Republicans, Cheney, and Addington and their water carriers in the Senate to put this in the consicousness of Americans. No one is more of a teevee hottie right now than Clinton or Obama who can get wall to wall nanosecond to nanosecond coverage prior to Feb. 5.

The voting tomorrow is at the epicenter of all are consciousness, but it’s way off the radar of even regular NYT readers in my poll today.

Obama and Clinton should take full advantage of their media moments to expose what’s going on with the FISA bill in the Senate–and in Cheney’s office the way FDL and EW have been doing so well.

It’s not leadership when the votes are a safe vote and won’t impact the outcome.

Leadership would have been Shilary or Obuma making a big ass stink about this bill, backing Chris Dodd, and dong so months ago.

You can’t call this leadership.

Did Pelosi get to you? *G*

A no show is the same as a no vote.

What am I missing, that all you folks are so smitten with this DISPLAY OF FAUX LEADERSHIP by The Shil and The Obuma?

Shil comes out the day before, makes a grand gesture (meaningless as proven above) only to force Obama to do the same, make another meaningless grand gesture.

Why are all you folks falling over yerselves to praise EITHER OF THEM?!?!?!?!

THEY HAVE DONE NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE!!!!

I just don’t get it, I guess.

Harumph.

Geebuz phreakin latter day pillars of utah salt, Tanbark, have you been drinking the kewlaid too?

Nothing. Of. Consequence. Was demonstrated. Today. By Either.

Yer still all lit up from that thumping Shillary got in SC ain’t ya . . ?!?!?!? *G*

I know I am. *G*

FDL hasn’t really done anything, with respect to THOSE two.

Now if FDL, n the netroots get the 12 Blue’s and Sci Fi on board, I’d call that visible and credible impact.

Shil and Obum? Pure politics and showcasing. Meaningless.

Damn Tan, did Cheney or the ghost of Leo Strauss shake you down or something? *G*

This is good news. They need to make public statements, however, regarding this pathetic piece of legislation.

I thought we were gonna get our asses kicked.

Since we’ve all done so little…wanna tell us what you’ve done?

I’m with you, Larue. I think it’s because 90% of commenters on blogs don’t know squat about how politics works. They’re either too idealistic or too cynical. Although it’s not easy to be too cynical with this crew we’ve got in Washington.

No, I want YOU to respond to the facts as to what I think are wasted pieces of symbolism and grandstanding on the parts of The Shil and The Bum.

And I want to know how many of the Bluedogs, SciFi and Lierman votes YOU personally have changed?

Ya know, I just dont like you. Yer one of the reasons I don’t post here much anymore.

I’ve found some recent common ground, and great insights I share and I support on the part of Jane, Siun, Christy lately . . . .

But then the threads are shut down as people are giving what I call GREAT discourse between and amongst themselves. Some how, I get the feeling you are always involved in muting, stifling and closing down the dialogue/discourse/disagreements. Even when they are civil and lucid.

I just don’t like you, so, would you please not respond to me, and I’ll grant you the same, from here on out, when I DO choose to visit and dialog here?

Thanks.

Leadership would have been Shilary or Obuma making a big ass stink about this bill, backing Chris Dodd, and dong so months ago.

That’s quite true. I don’t get to mod the names of the candidates–it got my posts blocked for weeks after I stopped doing it (for real) and still gets many of them delayed when they are right in the epicenter of appropriate here.

I read every one of Christy’s comments on her “Pull Up A Chair” gardening thread, but it took me 12 hours since her link to me to be able to get here to read it, and I agree with them wholeheartedly. I have no idea why my comments are being delayed many minutes weeks later. Whoever is doing it has to be seeing a consistent batch or acceptable comments. I have tried very hard not to succumb to getting into a food fight vis a vis “my candidate is better than yours”. I have tried to respond when people accused Obama of being a slum lord or being a co-conspirator with Tony Rezco and maybe I got carried away. But I also saw LHP, an attorney with a superb legal mind and background, make some judgements before she had the facts. I believe Senator Clinton is going to regret dearly her accusations and her husband’s made of Senator Obama, and everyone is going to realize that on Feb. 6–despite the Super Delegate claims of Senator Clinton. She should remember–in borkered conventions and otherwise, Super Delegates are not committed to honor their early pledges and often don’t. I got very tickled at and agreed strongly with Marcy’s comments on Senator Clinton’s trying to rearrange deck chairs with respect to Michigan and Florida delegates.

I also read the inaccurate disses from Marion in Savannah where River Street and Elizabeth on Thirty Seventh is, and Gnome de Plume., and like many things people say when they are angry, they are hardly true. I know that, and I do believe Christy Hardin Smith is an exceptional reader and she knows that as well. I tried to help TexBetsy when she was looking for a computer, and everyone is entitled to their opinion, whatever its relative value.

The recent upgrade has blocked many IE users from reaching this site now for 12 hours, no matter how sophisticated they configure IE, their Hosts file, their security settings, their Lan connection settings, or anything known to anyone at Redmond.

Firefox allows you to reach the site with no problem, but some IE7 users are going to have a tough time reaching it.

Am I missing something?

I thought even Rockefeller and Reid are voting no on cloture tomorrow because the GOP pissed them off. It which case it is hardly a big victory to have Obama and Clinton show up to make a party-line, uncontroversial vote.

Pissing conmtest!!!!! Pissing contest!!!!!!

to tell the truth larue you are long winded, boring and so very negative, I for one have not missed your posts.

ttul
balzar

I never noticed them.

Listening to Obama’s victor speech. Why does anyone believe a word he sez? Sounds so superficial.

I have heard Rockerfeller may vote “no” on the main cloture bill.

That rumor is around, but I haven’t seen confirmation from Rockerfeller. I’d be surprised given his deep complicity with Cheney and Addington in rail roading a bill through SSIC that only Feingold and Wyden voted against–the vote was 13-2 with several Democrats going with the Cheney setup.

I always think it’s important to remember these Democrats–Dianne Feinstein, California; Evan Bayh, Indiana; Barbara A. Mikulski, Maryland;
Sheldon Whitehouse, Rhode Island. They are coconspirators with Cheney and Addington towards granting immunity and several other key components that I’ve outlined are not covered by the Senate Select Intelligence Bill. Some of them are not covered by the Senate Judiciary version either.

There actually could be several cloture bills and a complex set of events tomorrow. Cboldt has done a terrific job of explaining Senate rules that are often elusive and difficult.

I would like Obama and Clinton to use their tremendous media attention to really open up what is going on in the Senate and the White House’s misconduct for the American people. I think it needs to be showcased that Bush is trying to cover Cheney and Addington and other people’s reprehensible law breaking way prior to 911–and 911 does not exceuse it.

I’d like to put Marcy’s front page posts on FISA and the coverup on the front of every newspaper tomorrow above the fold.

He’s a Rockefeller, for crying out loud. What do you expect?

He’s a Rockefeller, for crying out loud. What do you expect?

You’re sure right, but he’s chosen to be a Democrat, and he’s Chairman of a hugely important committee and after what I’ve seen the past few months I would have expected much better concern for the 4th amendment rights of Americans and the Constitution. And the four Democrats who have caved to Cheney completely have been huge disappointments as well–on many recent votes.

I had great hopes for Sheldon Whitehouse. He is an experienced litigator and knows his way around case law quite well and understands the relationships between these agencies and their many byzantine layers having been US Attorney for Rhode Island.

And that’s why god, in her infinite wisdom, invented the scroll tool. *G*

N Balzar, I’ve said LOTS of nice things about all KINDS of folks, in here, and out there.

Now, I’ll use god’s tool and her infinite wisdom.

Scroll, baby. *G*

It sounds more heartfelt coming out of John Edwards’ mouth for sure. :-)

Sorry. Rocks who register D are more suspect on first principles than Rocks who register Rs. JMO.

But, isn’t the vote scheduled for 4:30…

I now expect Obama and Clinton will be well briefed by their staffs and the several lawyers that the Democrats have working for the Senate, and play an engaged roll on what takes place however many votes, whatever significance it has.

There is a lot of potential action which could mean several votes that could take place later today as Cboldt has pointed out on previous threads:

But if Reid has filed cloture for a 30 day extension, the vote to be taken right after the cloture vote on the Intel bill, then they actually do need to show up and vote. Or so I’m given to understand.

Reid has in fact filed a cloture motion on his “extend the PAA by 30 days” amendment, and the vote to limit debate on that amendment is indeed scheduled to occur IF (most likely, I say almost certain) the motion to limit debate on Bond/Rockefeller is rejected.
And you are quite correct, when it comes to obtaining cloture, it’s the AYE votes that count. But, if cloture is rejected on the Bond/Rockefeller amendment, you’ll see a swarm of crossovers to extend the PAA, because the alternative is to revert to pre-PAA FISA.
I’m quite sure that once (”if” – but not much “if” involved) cloture is rejected on the Bond/Rockefeller bill, and that there’ll be a reversion to pre-PAA FISA if the Senate doesn’t pass an extension, the GOP will swarm over to agree to the extension. They’ll bitch about the DEMs being the reason for the need to do that, but they’ll vote for the extension almost unanimously, and right promptly.

There is no way that Reid could get 60 votes for a pro-Dem cloture vote.
But he’ll easily get 60, 70, maybe 80 or more votes for the extension, if the choice is between the extension and letting the PAA lapse. And that’s what the choice will be, once the cloture motion on the Bond/Rockefeller SSCI version of FISA is rejected on account of the GOP shutting down the right of Senators to open amendment, debate and vote.

There actually could be several cloture bills and a complex set of events tomorrow.

Probably two cloture votes, and actually a pretty simple and predictable set of events tomorrow.

The reason there will be at most two cloture votes is that only two cloture motions were filed last week Thursday. While the Senate can theoretically file a cloture motion and vote on it immediately (waiving all the timings in Rule XXII), it won’t do so on this controversial bill because it won’t get UC to waive the timings.

Probably two cloture votes because the second one depends on the first cloture motion being rejected. I’d say the chances of the fist cloture motion passing are about 1 in a thousand, so most likely there will be two cloture votes.

The first on is to limit debate on the SSCI version of FISA. If that passes, then debate on that bill is “on,” with an amending process and voting process that will have been negotiated in backrooms. Each amendment from that point on would have to get 60 votes to pass.

The second is to limit debate on an amendment that substitutes a 30 day PAA extension for the SSCI version of FISA. These two avenues represent a fork in the life of S.2248, being mutually exclusive possibilities – that’s why the second cloture motion is “mooted” by passage of the first.

If BOTH cloture motions are rejected, the bill is still alive for further debate, including the possibility of future cloture motions.

Given the short time between tomorrow and Feb 1, in combination with the House being out of commission for most of the week, I think it’s most likely that the Senate will pass the 30 day extension so IT won’t be responsible for any lapse in the PAA. The House will agree to this as well, with virtually no debate required; and certainly no negotiation required.

The SSCI version will come around again. I think there will be a “cooling off” period and the bill won’t come up again this week.

My best guess as to events and rough timing:

2:00 to 4:30 – Piss and moan about the options at this time.

4:35 – cloture vote to limit debate on SSCI version of FISA begins. It obtains fewer than 50 votes, well short of the 60 needed to pass. Lieberman will vote AYE, Specter will vote NAY.

5:00 – There will be more debate to “sell” the 30 day extension. The GOP will caterwaul about Reid and the Democrats inability to schedule and prioritize (e.g., we could have done FISA instead of Indian Health Care) The amount of debate here will be brief, something between 2 minutes and one hour.

5:10 – cloture vote to limit debate on a 30 day extension. This will pass easily. There will be massive GOP agreement to the extension, “reluctantly, but necessary given the alternative of PAA lapse.”

5:30 – Another short period of piss and moan, then pass the 30 day extension, probably on a voice vote, maybe on a roll call vote.

Those predictions are based on hunches developed from watching many controversial and non-controversial actions transpire in the Senate. My track record on predictions is better than half the time correct.

Excellent. Thanks as always for this possible schedule. I’ve now made it a point to check your site as well at Senate by Cboldt

I’m also seraching my shelves for Robert Caro’s books. I know I had several at one time. If I don’t have Master of the Senate, I’m going to get it.

Master of the Senate by Robert Caro

I couldn’t reach here after the upgrade with IE for 12 hours, so I finally cranked up FF. Some IE users are going to have a tough time for a while I think.

Once I did, I have been trying to piece together your comments into one email as a program for this event tomrorrow which I just remembered to set on my DVR.

*g* It will be fun to see how much of the procedure and moves I see that I can explain to myself. Your help has been terrific.

Looking farther ahead, I think telecom immunity will pass the Democratic-lead Congress. Maybe that’s a better outcome anyway — it is if the Courts REJECT the jurisdiction-stripping pronouncement as unconstitutional. That way, the courts would be spanking Congress, which I always find to be entertaining.

The Senate is letting Dodd and a few others be the voice of protecting the rule of personal privacy law as against the federal intelligence apparatus – while the rest of the Senate (at least 60 of them) play lip service to it but vote otherwise.

Similar to letting Coburn be the anti-earmarks voice, and others be the “fiscal responsibility” voices. It’s mostly a big show for the gullible masses. Watch what they DO, and compare it with what they SAY. Huge disconnect there.

Looking farther ahead, I think telecom immunity will pass the Democratic-lead Congress. Maybe that’s a better outcome anyway — it is if the Courts REJECT the jurisdiction-stripping pronouncement as unconstitutional. That way, the courts would be spanking Congress, which I always find to be entertaining

.

It is always fun, and would particularly be justice if the courts spanked Congress in this arena.

You’re probably dead on, but I sure don’t have any confidence in the Court system of late. I was disheartened to see the 9th Circuit adopt State Secrets, the D.C. Circuit do it twice (including Sybil Edmonds’ case against the FBI, and the Supreme Court in refusing to muster the 4 votes needed to grant Cert. to the D.C. Circuit’s denial of ACLU’s appeal on behalf of Edmonds.

I sure don’t have any confidence in the Court system of late.

Me neither. The system mostly works okay, but when individual rights are tested against the government, the individual is beat into submission — by all three branches of government playing a game of tag-team.

The first on is to limit debate on the SSCI version of FISA. If that passes, then debate on that bill is “on,” with an amending process and voting process that will have been negotiated in backrooms. Each amendment from that point on would have to get 60 votes to pass.

I want to add a bit to that. The reason 60 votes would be required to pass amendments IF and AFTER the Senate agrees to limit debate on the Bond/Rockefeller (SSCI) version of FISA is just simple expediency. That 60 vote margin isn’t dictated by Senate Rules. The margin for passing an amendment isn’t changed based on being pre or post cloture.

The expediency is that there will be an objecting Senator to vote on each and every controversial amendment, so to get anything passed (once brought up), the usual (regular, nominal) procedure is to ask UC to vote, hear an objection, file a cloture motion to get around the objection, get 60 votes to get around the objection, then vote on the amendment. The expediency just sees that in advance and says “let’s just set 60 votes for passage and get on with the debate, skipping the cloture dance.”

There is particularly strong motivation to use this expediency as it facilitated calling up numerous amendments, when the underlying bill is under the gun of limited post-cloture time. Otherwise, a single amendment under a cloture processes would use all of the time before voting on passage of the underlying bill.

Reid has another bill, S.2557 IIRC, that would put the immunity matter out of President Bush’s reach, or at least force it to be passed standing on its own merit, without being tied to changing snoop and search law. That bill is an extension of the PAA until July 2009.

I remember you’re comment about their being able to merge cloture into a vote a while ago.If they are to extend the PAA, isolating immunity may be the best route.

From your blog

Only few saw the key FISA court rulings -

Only a few members of the entire Senate have been allowed to see the documents requested by Leahy in August after he kept moving the deadline to this day, and I don’t believe OVP responded to his latest letter.

The Office of the Vice President responded separately to the subpoenas, again asserting that the Office was somehow outside the Executive Office of the President, and thus unavailable as a target for the Judiciary Committees. Leahy objected to this response arguing that it had no basis in the law. He said, “My answer would be look at the law. But these are people that don’t look at the law very often.”

From Leahy:

Despite my patience and flexibility, you have rejected every proposal, produced none of the responsive documents, provided no basis for any claim of privilege and no accompanying log of withheld documents. I had been requesting this information for an extended time before issuing the subpoenas.

I found Caro’s Master of the Senate in my library. I’m going to try to the comments on the EW threads again that have focused on FISA. I know more than I ever did, but still have a good ways to go.

Only few saw the key FISA court rulings …

That was an interesting article. One I hadn’t seen until I started to research the timing of the first demand for civil immunity in spite of federal law that gives a remedy for government privacy violations.

Not in that article, but “between the lines” in Senate debate, the FISA rulings may be short on legal rationale. Feingold is attempting to pry the pleadings out of the FISC, but there is strenuous objection to this.

Point being that even those who saw the rulings didn’t see the legal rationales advanced by the administration. And the Senators who saw the rulings tend to conclude (Bond is one who suggests otherwise, by saying a court shut down the TSP) that the FISC got it right as a matter of law.

If the Senate was honest, it’d simply remove all of the civil and criminal penalties that it’s put into privacy law. Make it like torture … illegal, but not criminally punishable and no civil remedy in court for a violation.

Dear Senator Reid,

It is one thing to be personally against retroactive immunity for the telecom companies. Good for you. But so far, you and Senator Jay “Rich Man, Rollover Man” Rockefeller have been played like patsies by Mitch McConnell and the Bush Administration.

For God’s sake and for the sake of the American people, please stand up to these civil liberties barbarians of the Right, who would gut the Constitution before breakfast, if they get their way.

If you are a true leader of the Democrats in Congress, you will get or force the recalcitrant, reactionary members of your caucus, like Bayh and Carper and Inouye and Johnson and Mikulski and McCaskill and Pryor and Salazar and both Nelsons to vote “NO” on cloture and “NO” to retroactive immunity for the telecoms. Otherwise, give up your leadership. Let someone like Senator Dodd, who has shown real courage, take over. If you’re not going to lead, step aside for the sake of your Party, for the sake of our Country.

Please show us that you have some steel in your spine. Otherwise, you will be forever known as “Give ‘em your cojones,” Harry Reid. And surrendering to Miss McConnell? All the worse. Sad to be known as the Senator without balls or principles, isn’t it, Harry?

Please prove me and the American people wrong.

Thank you.

David Wyles

P.S. I was Joe Lieberman’s roommate at Yale, so I truly and personally know about betrayal of the real interests of the regular people of America. We the people never voted for a War that would drain more than 3 trillion dollars from our National Treasury, money that could have been used for education, universal health care, the infrastructure of our country.

Please don’t “wuss out” on me and the rest of America. Please show some balls against the Liebermans and Bushes and Cheneys and McConnells of this world.

You claim to be a “fighter.” Now’s the time to prove it.

Members of the Congress and the Senate allowed Bush’s illegal spying and they are trying to make the TeleCos the scape goat by using the FISA bill to point out their complicity. Expect the FISA bill to be defeated and the TelCos, already burdened by what is loosely referred to as deregulation in a scheme that continues to regulate them while stealing their property and revenue, to be further punished.

Hillary, who voted for the illegal spying, has announced that she is rushing to D.C. to vote against the Bill. The thing that is becoming increasingly clear is that you don’t want to vote for any of the candidates who are currently being supported by the media and their investment banker owners.

I’ll believe Obama’s vote when I see the “N” next to his name and not “Present”.

My kind of letter.

Point being that even those who saw the rulings didn’t see the legal rationales advanced by the administration. And the Senators who saw the rulings tend to conclude (Bond is one who suggests otherwise, by saying a court shut down the TSP) that the FISC got it right as a matter of law.

If the Senate was honest, it’d simply remove all of the civil and criminal penalties that it’s put into privacy law. Make it like torture … illegal, but not criminally punishable and no civil remedy in court for a violation.

That’s an important point. It would certainly be enlightening to have the government’s briefs defending overtly criminal behavior in direcect violation of existing code/case law public as well as the documents Bates’ ruling protected. I’d like to see them used not only in the civil suits, but as ammunition on the Senate floor.

I am less sanguine about the chances to stop a 60 vote total. Recall – as noted by Glenn Greenwald on Saturday’s UPDATE IV to his post on Per Glenn these are the “pro-immunity, pro-warrantless eavesdropping Democrats: Rockefeller, Pryor, Inouye, McCaskill, Landrieu, Salazar, Nelson (FL), Nelson (NE), Mikulski, Carper, Bayh, and Johnson.”

IT WOULD SEEM, at 1:05 today that those among us who have fax capabilities -esp those who are represented by these Senators – might wish to concentrate MOST efforts to sway these Dem Senators. Geez, even Sen Reid [belatedly] found a spine.

Oops! – meant to say – “GG’s UPDATE IV to Saturday’s post on Rockefeller noted that 12 Dems plus a well-disciplined Republ block totaled 60 votes.”

I think there’s a little snarkin a little here when referring to some of our fine congresscritters, including Obama and Hillary, and “leadership” since they missed the boat twice now on FISA.
I agree with you that Hillary and Obama could be weighing the pressure to show up by activists/&potential voters alongside the probability of a Dodd/Feingold victory.
Other then that, I know I am happy they intend to show, and yet still snarking. It’s hard too address grandstanding when you need to dangle carrots at the same time. A political neccessity when it comes to dealing with some of our fine congress critters. (I am from CT. How many (forcebly) polite phone calls and emails have I made to the odious Holy Joe on behalf of FDL and the progressive community, when I’d rather have my teeth pulled. Like I said it’s all “carrots” for the congresscritters.)