7:45 PM ET: 3% reporting
- Obama 52%
- Clinton 32%
- Edwards 16%
NBC is calling South Carolina for Obama. Looks like a blowout.
Early AP exit polls:
- African-Americans: Obama 81%, Clinton 17%, Edwards 1%
- African-American women: Obama 82%, Clinton 17%, Edwards 0%
- Whites: Edwards 39%, Clinton 36%, Obama 24%
From Fox exit poll — For people who picked in last few days: Obama 53, Edwards 28, Clinton 18
From CNN exit poll — Which candidate attacked unfairly? Clinton 21, Obama 6, Both 50, neither 21
From Teddy in the comments:
Old Lord McCain steps all over the SCarolina Dem results with his Charlie Crist endorsement, and the pliant Traditional Media plays along. John King and Dana Bash (will she change her name to Dana Bash King when they marry, and will George Bush feel threatened by her new name?) seem especially titillated by the Crist endorsement, since they both were “with Governor Crist” a coupla days ago when he could hardly contain himself with excitement over his upcoming endorsement.
CNN make me wanna puke.
Related posts:
- South Carolina Congressman Who Screamed at President Obama Fought to Keep Confederate Flag
- Late Night: South Carolina Issues Ambler Alert
- Late Night: The South Carolina GOP Supper Club Presents “The Merchants of Prejudice”
- So, Now Sanford’s Affair is Why South Carolina Has 12.1% Unemployment?
- Midnight in the Garden of Trash and Hypocrisy: South Carolina Gets
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Big momentum!
Good Moring Jane!
Sorry – good morning Jane!
Does “which candidate attacked unfairly” refer to a candidate who attacked or one who was attacked?
Watching the MSNBC coverage. Lots of horrible folks [Scarborough et al.], but at least Keith occasionally.
Playing the whiney victim worked big-time for Obama among blacks.
I would so love to see Edwards finish second … and I am very happy to see high numbers for Obama so hopefully we can move past the story that Bill’s approach was winning. Let’s have a real run between three candidates instead of the war of surrogate smears. I sure didn’t want to hear the MSM arguing that nastiness works for Clinton which completely undermines the enthusiasm of new recruits to voting and the party.
I also think Hillary is a much stronger candidate when she’s operating more on her own (think NH) than as a duet.
I think the Clinton camp had better reconfigure their strategy.
-G
Speaking of which, Scarborough now squawking about some FL dude endorsing McCain. Bleech.
51,34,15 according to CNN election center.
MSNBC, Obama, Clinton, Edwards.
Charlie Crist, da guv’nah.
-G
Dave in Okinawa delurking;
Anecdotally, the Marines I work with out here display an intense dislike if not hatred for HRC. For Obama, not nearly so much animosity, and surprise!! – a few outright Obama supporters.
I like to jerk their chains occasionally and relate the story of how HRC wanted to join the Marine Corps back in the mid-seventies, and be a Marine lawyer.
Old Lord McCain steps all over the SCarolina Dem results with his Charlie Crist endorsement, and the pliant Traditional Media plays along. John King and Dana Bash (will she change her name to Dana Bash King when they marry, and will George Bush feel threatened by her new name?) seem especially titillated by the Crist endorsement, since they both were “with Governor Crist” a coupla days ago when he could hardly contain himself with excitement over his upcoming endorsement.
CNN make me wanna puke.
Could you identify the “whiney” statements … it seemed that Obama played it relatively sane, objected to misstatements of his record and then was criticized often for not hitting back hard enough. But whiney … please explain?
I really interested in seeing how much we can sort out about what worked, what didn’t … there’s been considerable discussion of Obama’s team doing a really great job on field in SC and it would be great if good field is what works since that’s something we can all learn from whoever our candidate is.
Excellent!!!!! GLAD!!!
I’m with Siun on seeing Edwards come in second!!! We need that to see a real race develop in the next two weeks.
I still have hopes we can make this about issues and not gender/race. I so hope for that.
Great news!
Hi OkiDave!!
So who do they like?
If Edwards get 15% he gets delegates.
52,30,18.
Teddy, try MSNBC. Bad in many ways, but my expectations are lower.
PS – how’s the City?
Really hope the Corporate Media screwed up on the exit polling– I’d like to see Edwards place second (a strong second would be great, but I’ll settle for second). I just can’t see myself pulling the lever in the general this fall for either Obama or Clinton…
I’d wait till those numbers are in before they call this thing…
Whaddya doin watching CNN?
It’s MSNBC or nuthin for me.
I think folks are getting carried away and the racial bit is being driven almost completely by the media. The race stuff isn’t going to play in Calif. Clinton better get away from that or she’s toast.
Any guesses on the source of the robocalls in SC?
I think I got EPU’d with this, so here it is. I think it’s important: I have to quote PhysioProf in comment #3 in the South Carolina. Discuss. thread 3 threads ago (I tried a linky but got a 404. Sorry):
My feelings exactly, and made me howl too. Prof’s a genius…
50, 30, 20
A question: just how much legs do you think the Rezko story will have? Any chance Obama will suffer as a result, and Edwards might gain? Part of me thinks “no,” based on the fact that the Corporate Media thinks they are the ones as the sole voters, and not us, and I get the feeling they’re ready to anoint Obama the minute it’s feasible to do so.
The sun came out today, which was novel. How are you?
Clinton Camp.
Snowbird, what I took away from the discussion of that point on MSNBC was that it went according to Congressional district — i.e., Edwards has to get at least 15% in a district to get delegates. If he doesn’t meet that threshhold, and if Obama gets more than 59%, he gets the delegates. NBC’s “chief political reporter” was explaining this and saying Obama expected 20 or so delegates out of SC, but might get 24-28.
Does anyone know the details of this?
PS – why doesn’t the underline function work?
* African-Americans: Obama 81%, Clinton 17%, Edwards 1%
* African-American women: Obama 82%, Clinton 17%, Edwards 0%
* Whites: Edwards 39%, Clinton 36%, Obama 24%
These numbers Are interesting.
There was a commenter downstairs who voted for the O, to make a statement to the MSM regarding will the whites in SC support a Black man. Silly, I thought, but, looking at the numbers and realizing that people vote a particular way to make a statement…just wait ’till some other states vote.
There may be a “oh, yeah?” bias against Barack. Just maybe.
We’ll see. I just thought I’d share my thoughts.
Terrific. I’m in DC, but moving to Maui [so I can finally be a “real” Maui mom] in June. Was born in SF and went to college out there. Still my favorite city on the planet.
I think we see a variety of narratives play out in people’s votes … remember the surge of women voting for Hillary in NH after the media went vicious.
50, 29, 21….come on Edwards….
None of the Greenville votes are in or Seneca.
A pattern? People pissed off about smearing candidates. The media during New Hampshire, and Bill during South Carolina.
I hope the Dems can get back to the issues and remember who the enemy is. And by enemy I don’t mean opponent. I mean the Rethug party, enemy to the Constitution of the United States and to all working people of all colors.
Much, much more minor than Whitewater, which should of been a minor story. I’ve read several of the Chi Sun-Times articles about it and have had trouble seeing any sort of malfeasance on the Obamas part.
Perhaps rural precincts, which might favor JRE over HRC, report later or more slowly?
Yep. I remember that.
But, shouldn’t Dem voters be a little more focused on Picking The Candidate who can beat the Repub candidate?
It’s not a frat rush. It’s an election. An important one.
I’m so confused.
CNN has their exit polling data up … it’s very interesting in terms of voter breakdown: check them out here.
you may be right!
For everyone who thought Claire McCaskill ought to let Obama enjoy his victory and keep her mug off the teevee, Loretta Sanchez just balanced it out for Clinton.
DLC central.
Can Hillary shut Bill down? Or does she want to?
Lahoma is pleased with the S.C. result. When my lady is pleased I am exceptionally happy. To that end I am going to fix two mint juleps. One of two of our fave cocktails.
??? Confused on that. I thought he did really well standing up against the Cinton II team candidacy. I would have like to see him not get drawn into the petty bickering in that debate but he does have to defend himself. He does that well. I’ve not seen any indication of whiney victim from Obama.
The Hispanic vote on Super Tuesday will be huge.
Looks like we have our first blowout this primary season, and it goes to Obama. Obama actually got more delegates in Nevada, but Hillary can make so such claim in S.C.
Doesn’t that say something?
I’ll be right over.
DLC. Oh gawd. Don’t get kiddo started.
Lahoma
Siun, thanks for all the reporting.
Cheers Kiddo and Lahoma!
52, 28, 20.
This is great news for John McCain.
Considering Edwards is discounted he is doing well. I see him ahead in three counties.
I cant get the link to work.
I don’t see this as all that significant in terms of changing anything.
Let’s be brutal for a second:
he lost the white vote significantly and won because of the black vote.
While SC is not typical, by any means, those results don’t translate well to the rest of the country.
Clinton’s still the front runner for the party nomination, and I don’t know that this is going to change much in that regard. Clinton knew SC was lost, that’s why she didn’t campaign in SC for most of the week, just popping in for today.
For Edwards supporters, I’ll note that winning the white vote is a good omen for him. A lot more whites who still have to vote than blacks.
For those who are offended by this analysis: I see no way to discuss this primary without dealing with race. It’s pretty clear from these results that it matters.
A lot.
:(
Rats….with balls this big.
MrSandman,
The race for the Democratic nomination has been for all intents and purposes, IMO, which doesn’t count for much, a contest between Clinton, and Obama. Edwards, who I like very much, has not shown an ability to overcome either of their campaign machines. In fact, as much as I support his ideas/platform, he just has not been able to deliver, and IMO, also for what it is worth, it is not all MSM fault. He just doesn’t have the pizazz (sp?) to pull it off. Sorry, but the good ole college try just isn’t getting it.
He has served his purpose in this primary which is to keep the rest of them honest, and to pull them to a more progressive dialog. Other than that, he is history. Sad, but true, if he can’t win SC, his home/birth state. He currently lives, and served as a Senator in NC, my home state.
I was thinking the same thing..I don’t understand the AA/Hispanic dynamic but I hope it won’t affect turn out in the General election with respect to who the nominee is.
? Mccain want to run against hillary because they are geared for that. They’re not geared for Obama. Edwards would laugh them off the stage. (which is what I want… jes sayin’).
So what you mean there?
That’s what I thought… I’ve really been behind on the news the last couple of weeks. But then again, as you pointed out, Whitewater should have been a blip on everyone’s screens, and it wasn’t.
How typically American. Less than 1% of the poll results are in. But the teevee media gotta make a splash.
As Siun said well, the numbers that break out of S.C. are really important as a prognosticator. I’ll be interested in breakdowns of the white vote, breakdowns of the woman vote, breakdowns by age of the voter, if we can get them and after most of the vote is in.
I’ve been asked by the NYT and Washington post as is their custom, to configure a headline for the late editions of the Sunday papers.
I’m toying with
OBAMERED!
BILL CLINTON ROUTED–WILL HE CHANGE HIS TUNE?
THE AUDACITY OF HOPE ARKANSAS HAS ASS KICKED.
SECRET HEALTH PROGRAM (NEVER REVEALED IN YEARS) AUTHOR HAS ASS KICKED.
I am really appreciative of the Clinton flacks who are educating me that there is a Super Tuesday and Super Delegates control about 37.77% of the outcome. Without their guidance I’d be truly lost.
So will Clinton maker her concession speech if she does and her husband doesn’t–I’d like to see conjoint speeches
at
1) Printer’s Alley
2) Vandy’s Kirkland Hall
3) Roteir’s on Elliston Place
4) Belle Meade Country Club
5) The Opry
6) The recording studios on 16th street
7) FISK University
8) In front of the law school on 21st
9) In SICU at Vandy Med where she’ll reveal her secret health plan from the 90’s
he lost the white vote significantly and won because of the black vote.
That’s what I Didn’t Say at #28, but was thinking, myself.
Thank you.
LS – I’d say that most service personnel (and particularly Marines) still ID themselves as Republicans. But I can’t detect which of the Repub candidates who may have the edge out here. Probably McCain, but there’s no loud & vocal support for him yet in general conversations that I’m a part of.
I’d say that Obama is the one Dem that does get favorable if occasional comments. There is no racist undertones that I detect when I do hear negative comments about Obama, which I’m very glad to observe.
Overall, there is very, very little outright praise for the Chimpster — even these hard core Marines have realized how badly the Chimporer has screwed things up.
Thank you, Ian. This is what worries me about Obama being the nominee. I hate to say it but I do not believe that America at large will vote for an African-American. It makes me sick but it’s the truth and we need this win so badly in November. I wish I could see a different picture but I don’t.
The returns are only 16% counted, but I really thought Edwards would do better. It’s disappointing.
No mention of the horrible symbolism of neither candidate giving a rat’s ass about voting on the permutation and combination of FISA votes before they plant themselves in front of the cameras at the meaningless SOTU.
I don’t know about laughing off the stage but there would be a lot less drama with Edwards..No drama and a Dem in the WH on 01/20/09..
The vote breakdown is not quite so clear in racial terms …age also factors in a lot with 18-29 year old whites going for Obama acc to the exit polling by CNN – these are interesting numbers if they are accurate.
Everything is good news for Old Lord McCain. It’s simply a general rule one can postulate at any time, in any thread, on any blog.
I agree with your analysis, I do like the fact that Edwards has won the white vote… I saw no ill will, and, I don’t harbor ill will, myself… I think it is very productive to have the African American vote mobilized…
My understanding of what Chuck Todd said is any Dem that breaks the 60% thresh-hold in a congressional district gets one bonus delegate. I guess they pull that rabbit out of the hat?
And I dont see them wanting the Clintons back. So Im glad Edwards is staying.
That’s what I’m afraid of… But as the WaPo pointed out, he hasn’t really caught a break from the Corporate Media either.
After watching the News Hour last night (Friday)I became more convinced that the effort to smear Obama was producing a backlash. The results from South Carolina would seem to confirm. Will it carry over to Super Tuesday?
If HRC wasn’t so busy in SC with this election then was she doing her job as a Senator in DC – there’s some FISA that needs attention
I was hoping he’d do better than Hill, but, his numbers will still net Delegates…
You as welcome as the flowers in spring.
Lahoma.
As always, an astute observer. Thanks Ian.
As the primaries move deeper South, I thought at first that the effect of race (Black) would become more divisive. However, the South has changed a lot even since 2000. For one thing, lots of northerners have arrived and for another, lots of Hispanics have arrived. I am not so sure the stereotypical South even applies right now in terms of the “lay-voter”. The Superdelegate faction is probably pretty much the same as ever, and the divisiveness will show itself there.
see, there’s always hope for tomorrow
Hillary and Edwards tie for the “non black” vote age 45-59 years old
Edwards wins “non-black” vote age 30-44
Clinton wins age 60+ amongst “nonblack voters”
Thanks for your insight!
Does the MSM media really want to be calling the results when only 16% are reporting? Hasn’t that already gotten them in trouble a few times this year?
There was a local vote in my area that was a huuuuge deal (it had to do with the drinking age, and I live in a university town). The early precincts reported and it looked like for all intents and purposes, one side won — the paper called it and people were crowing. But the votes continued to roll in and the tide changed completely. It ain’t over ’til it’s over — let’s not count our chads before they’ve hatched and mellow out!
And I’m going to do my part to get Edwards some WA delegates. Our caucus is Feb 9.
Ian, I assume your post will be posted after awhile, I did enjoy it… *g*
Huh?
Just looked at the CNN link, and Obama’s at 25% to Clinton’s 35% with the non-Black (whatever the hell that means) vote. Obama in a complete and absolute route in the Black vote. Couple this with the Iowa win, which was very decisive, I’m thinking Obama should feel very good about his ability to win people of all different skin colors.
go, TOW!
I am not so pessimistic..No matter who the candidate is for each party, the starting point will be 44% R 46% D…In the remaining 10%, I think race will be less of an issue than economy, terra, woman as C in C.
The real test of how far we have come or not come would be if an Alan Keyes type Thug was their nominee.
Please precious people, keep in mind the idea is to give the nasty Republicans the boot next November. And if the new Democratic president doesn’t doesn’t perform, we’ll work on him or her. Will we ever!
fingers crossed that you are right.
These CNN exit polls are fascinating … there are five full pages of breakdowns … the one I keep finding really weird is the one on Iraq where Edwards wins the vote of those who want to “keep troops in Iraq”
is this an artifact of white male voting or has he not made his position clear enough or has he just not gotten enough attention?
I will be caucusing for Edwards in MN.
Actually, she wasn’t in SC either. She was in south Phoenix at a high school in this majority Latino/Hispanic area of Phoenix. Pandering. So she wan’t in SC and for sure NOT in DC either :-)
Bravo and more power to you.
I am sticking with Edwards too.
Bill Clinton just said “we’re looking for a big victory in Florida.” That’s a verification that Hillary’s statement about seating the Floriday (and Michigan) delegations was designed to spotlight the Floriday primary, so that if/when Hillary wins that, it will end the talk of Obama’s victory in SC. It was very calculated.
Edwards up to 20%
As someone pointed out downstairs, somewhere…Super Tuesday May not be the end…
But, I for one am looking forward to some primary results which show some diversity.
Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina are not the Big Picture.
Maybe I’m wrong…
It’s very interesting given what the commentor above suggested about delegate allocations. If there is some racial disparity in many precincts then Obama could end up winning all of those delegates with a strong African American population, and Edwards could split those in areas with more of a white representation. Mixed-race areas would tally the rest and things there might favor Obama since Clinton and Edwards might split white voters…but with Obama picking up enough whites to gain a plurality.
And now he say “Feb 5, when millions of Americans finally get in the act.”
i.e, tonight is not important.
I got a glance at it too!
the first thing I thought of was how wonderful it would be to see the sky without the pollution of a single lamp.
If the new Democratic president thinks that he or she can get away with acting like Pelosi, Reid or Lieberman, you have another think coming. Ain’t gonna happen. Unless you want to be a ‘one-termer’. You best do the job.
People want to vote for the winner
Sticking with Edwards. Am I mistaken or is he still the candidate who is polled as able to beat any Republican?
I’m not seeing that poll about being ‘angry’ at Bush. Did someone put the end to such questions after seeing the results last time?
FISA talking points:
— Immunity for the telecos entails immunity for Bush and his henchmen.
— It’more honorable to fight and lose than capitulate to evil.
— The place to try federal crimes is in federal court, not in Congress where corporate fortunes can buy a verdict
— Per Benjamin Franklin: “Those who would trade essential liberties for a bit of safety deserve neither liberty nor safety and will lose both.”
— Per William Pitt: “Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.”
— The claims of great urgency are totally bogus. The current law, which sunsets February 2, allows the Attorney General to authorize programs for up to a year. Thus, he can now authorize the current surveillance programs to continue for the duration of the Bush administration. Don’t let the bastards stampede Congress like they have so often in the past.
— Per Glenn Greenwald:
It’s hard to get too excited with any southern Dem primary..In the General it is winner take all and they are all in the Thug column with the possible exception of AR and (Va?)
Edwards can beat the crap out of any Republican.
They’re numbers with about 1-2% of the vote in. They’ll be interesting with 100% of the vote in.
That what I remember, but don’t have a link.
I don’t like the FL/MI move I must say … all candidates were agreed about those two delegations until we started seeing results … it’s just a rather unpleasant way to play the game,eh?
At least it didn’t get hijacked… ;-)
Can you imagine a debate between McCain and Edwards?
Bill Clinton clearly signaling that it’s his administration that is at issue, not Bush. So this campaign is about Bush surrogates vs Bill Clinton surrogate (his wife). Interesting strategy, but I think it’s a mistake.
so the others agreed not to campaign in Fl or Mich and Hillary now wants to undo what the others pledged?
There are only pending civil cases against the Telcos/Comcos for breaking the law. If you spit on the sidewalk in front of a federal building, or take a picture of it while spitting you could be indicted.
WTF are people not talking about Obama being strong among white voters while using South Carolina as an example of white voters — They are not typical white voters. Obama getting some 25% of the white vote in SC is HUGE, to me. It indicates he can get a respectable margin of the racist white voter in the “Old South.”
Many more whites in places like Florida, Texas and even Georgia have long ago moved off this racist platform and into the modern era… not to mention Virginia, and even Arkansas. SC is a throwback to Strom Thurmond and Jim Crow, not the white vote nationwide.
See Iowa, 2008
I think so too, kiddo.
Kiddo, I hear you. BUT — I won’t EVER vote for HRC. She won’t disavow her taking the AUMF bait hook, line & sinker back in Oct ‘02. Combine that w/ her more recent support for the Lieberman/Kyle idiocy this past fall, and I conclude she is too gullible (or too triangulating) to get my support. This war is an absolute disaster – the worst blunder in American history. If she can’t be forthright enough to state that, then she ain’t qualified to sit in that executive chair. M2$//YMMV.
TheOtherWA – I’m a Washington resident, and I’m supporting Edwards as well.
Who knows? The last poll I saw showed both Hillary and Obama losing by a point or 2 to McCain. Edwards wasnt’ even included in the polling.
So apparently they’re going to keep the Clenis out front and center. You’d think tonight might make them think differently. Oh well.
Caroline Kennedy endorsing Obama.
And I’m going to do my part to get Edwards some WA delegates. Our caucus is Feb 9.
I will be caucusing for Edwards in MN.
Me, too.
Yes–we need to see how more typical redneck white voters vote; we’ve only had those vote from 3 states so far.
The counterargument is that it’s a southern thing — southern whites may not want to vote for him, but northern whites will. Most southern states are a write-off anyway. So does it matter?
Maybe, putting a couple of them in play makes winning a lot easier.
But I wasn’t really discussing Obama in a general. I think he can probably win one, although I fear what the Republicans can do to him.
My point was more that this primary really is devolving into one that is based on race and there are going to be a lot of wounds to bind up after the nominee is chosen, no matter who it is.
Which is exactly what Bill 2.1 intends to do.
MSNBC announcing that Caroline Kennedy is endorsing Obama.
Cool. Glad to hear Kathieinmn is for Edwards too.
Well, at least Joey Short Ride isn’t standing beside Bill Clinton as he makes his speech now…let’s hope he doesn’t show up to stand next to Hillary when she speaks.
Maybe Joey Short Ride has decided to stick to the Republicans (McCain) in this race.
He has consistently polled higher against McCain, Romney, Giuliani compared to all other Dems. I am not sure this will continue if the H & O horserace continues to dominate the Media. But I think it is essentially true that Edwards has broader appeal in a General Election framework to both Independents and to Republicans who aren’t part of the dim-witted 25% of their party.
why not endorse him yesterday?
The winning combination? Edwards/Obama.
Deja Vu! Denver ‘08 might resemble Chicago ‘68…
I mostly dont want a dynasty. Its bad for the country
Clinton wants to claim credit/momentum from an anticipated victory in Florida, while not explicitly violating the rule not to campaign there. But mentioning Florida, Clinton wants the media to give some play to the expected Florida results, which can then be part of the narrative going into super Tuesday, instead of just Obama’s victory in SC.
nodding … Scarecrow! you are right … for example he does not say Hillary will do x, y and z in this speech he turns it into “I” statements … very little repetition of Hillary’s name, etc … this is not a good communication move and I really think she’d do better if he was more clearly supporting Hillary rather than “I” “us” “we” etc.
No se. Editorial in the NYT tomorrow.
Have you seen the numbers against Clinton in the general–they’re a lot worse than against Obama, and you ought to be concerned about what they’ll do to her. Obama is beating McCain now in the general in most polls. She’ll bring them out in record numbers. She does bring people together but her husband is confused–the people she brings together are Republicans in overflow numbers.
Well, it usually is “out front and center.” :)
That is not a crazy analysis at all. Quite sane I’d say.
Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton? 8-(
I agree. That would be an excellent ticket. Not a repub combo would come close to beating them.
53, 28, 19.
Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a winnah! That’s a great ticket.
As I said in a thread a few days ago, racism in this country is wide and deep and I believe that when people step into that voting booth they do things they wouldn’t tell their best friend about. It would be wonderful to be wrong.
Well, Obama certainly has all the right people endorsing him.
I’m still endorsing Edwards.
Indeed. That sober adult approach doesn’t play with the jerry springerization of msm at all. Drama drama drama…… if there isn’t any, create some. Pop culture …. feh.
I’m not too into the breakdown of sectors. None of this breaks along the lines I see as far as members of the problem and not a member of the problem. Who’s better to fix the problem? I’ll take not member of the problem for $100, Alex.
In the end its delegates anyway and that varries from state to state and then the superdelegates …… which are campaigned for on the side. I could be wrong on that though. Still in the end, its only delegates that are counted.
My prediction: Edwards in a landslide on Super Tuesady. The nation gets to focus on the issues. Clinton gets the nomination. President Mittens.
:-)
Apparently the Obama campaign made a similar reference to Clinton seeking Hispanic votes..from what I have read, that really pisses off the Latino voter. The last thing we need is for usually reliable Dem voters who make up ~24% of the population to be pissed off at each other.
I like Edwards too, and I could hold my nose and vote for a ticket with Obama as veep– but after he kissed publicly kissed Benedict Ronald’s ass I would never vote for him for pres.
Another reason to vote Democratic:
AP – Florida Gov. Charlie Crist endorsed a beaming Sen. John McCain on Saturday night, delivering a boost three days before the state’s pivotal primary.
53%, 27%, 19%, with 41% reporting
What exactly were the details of Senator Clinton’s health plan in the 90’s? I can’t find them using the how you say “the google” or any other of 50 search engines. Can someone give me a link that deliniates Clinton’s secret health plan–because she hasn’t deliniated it in over ten years.
Yes he can!!! *raises glass to kiddo and lahoma*
I’d say that most service personnel (and particularly Marines) still ID themselves as Republicans.
Please count me as your exception that justifies your use of “most”. Speaking as a former Marine and former Republican. I now consider myself an independent progressive.
Kiddo – I personally agree. But, would Obama concede to the VP/#2 spot? I don’t think so. My take is Obama’s ego is too big to accept the VP spot.
My take is to reverse the order – Obama/Edwards
Re: Latino voters.
I think the Democratic party is well-aware that Latino voters are the key swing voters for the next few elections. I would expect the veep slot to go to someone like Bill Richardson, especially if Obama wins the nom.
Annnnnnd that’s why we need The Clinton III candidacy to end. They are slicing and dicing all the good people of the Democratic party and this nation. I don’t care for it one bit.
I am forced to agree. In particular, the western half of the country’s strong sundown tradition (cf Dave Niewart’s Orcinus blog) means that the percentage of black people in other states drops dramatically. (racial emographics)
I’d say those AP exit results in the main post are most interesting from both race and gender perspective. Note the flight (among whites) from both the black and the female candidates…
Remind me again who Charlie Crist is. Isn’t he the gay governor of Florida?
You do that,CarolynU. And let me know how it feels to have your support bartered in a back room by Edwards later.
Nominating Hillary Clinton will be the best way for us to get another Republican administration. At least South Carolina gets it.
That’s my take, too…
but think about what Siun reports, think about what it means for the future:
“The vote breakdown is not quite so clear in racial terms …age also factors in a lot with 18-29 year old whites going for Obama acc to the exit polling by CNN – these are interesting numbers if they are accurate.”
Do you think all the nastiness between the Obama and Clinton campaigns make it impossible for them to share a ticket later on?
Hopefully.
I don’t know anyone who ever saw the Hillary Health Care Plan of the 90’s. I have heard, however, that it’s roughly the length of “War and Peace”.
I’m not sure Edwards would accept the vp spot-again. He would be a very effective vp, working behind the scenes (kinda like Cheney except he’d use his powers for Good, not evil.)
54, 27, 19.
That would be true…I wonder if Huck or Mittens will play the “gay” card.
Obama is too young and has too good of a political career ahead of him to hitch his wagon to anybody else, especially the Clinton brand.
Soooo…where’s Tweety????
Does anyone know what percentage of the voters were black?
Obama did not lose the white vote significantly. The exit polls suggest he got about 25% in a three person race. Clinton and Edwards got about a third each. One can’t simply assume that in a two-person race all whites will gravitate to the white. Edwards white supporters may have jumped significantly to Obama rather than Clinton.
And furthermore to suggest that White Democrats may have voted AGAINST Obama because of his race rather than make choices based on policies, experience, age, or innumerable other things is simply insulting. They are selecting individuals amongst three members of their own PARTY, and when any of these candidates comes up against a Conservative Republican they may absolutely ignore melanin density and vote for the individual that expresses policies that they support more.
I’d point out that in Iowa Obama won the majority of White Caucus Attendees.
One thing that perplexes me is the fact that Hill’s camp was receptive to Edwards’ overtures and Obama’s was cool… I think Fineman mentioned it…
I’m back from being fed chicken and dumplings by Mr. Marion in Savannah who said I’d been working at the computer for too long. What did I miss?
The Scar has a dangerously-deranged, boiling hatred of Bill Clinton.
Which means that I can’t stay mad too long at Bill Clinton, I guess…
I think if Obama was a white man in this race, he would still be seen as an outsider to Hillary & Edwards to the black voters and they would have voted overwhelmingly for him anyways.
Early exit polls, at least 50% and ~60% women.
Wow. Obama is currently beating Clinton 2 to 1.
Wasn’t Scar a member of the House Judiciary Committee when they were drafting the Articles…?
TLinGA – personally, I hope you’re right. I can only tell you (and LS) what I observe living & working here on Okinawa. The intentional and relentless Dem/Liberal bashing/disparagement that has been in play since St. Ronnie’s era, combined with the daily output of poison from Faux News, has resulted in a Pavlovian reaction by military personnel (and especially Jarheads) to anything labeled either a Dem and/or liberal.
For myself, I don’t back down when this subject comes up. I tell my co-workers that I’m a proud Liberal Democrat, and that I voted for George McGovern and Jimmy Carter, and I’m proud of that.
One persistent comment I do hear about Obama out here, which DOES bother me, and that’s the Faux News-originated smear that Obama is a secret Muslim/Madrassa-schooled/secret radical Islamo-terrrorist Manchurian-candidate. When I do hear that shit, I give back a lot of scorn over such ignorance.
I disagree..but we will never know.
(rooting quietly for Pat Buchanan to cause a JoeScar cranial-explosive incident…)
If this race was really about the color of the skin, then Hillary & Edwards would have smucked Obama in New Hampshire, in Iowa, and even Nevada.
I think Americans are wanting something COMPLETELY different, meaning, they want someone who is fresh and new and not part of the Establishment or something like that.
I’m still a bit shocked about a blowout of this magnitude. Any thoughts on what this will mean (if anything) if we get a brokered convention?
The liberal dilemna:
If we nominate a woman or a minority member we start out at a disadvantage. If we deny someone the nomination on that grounds then we are part of the problem instead of the solution. So, do we go against everything we believe in to win the presidency? Conversely, do we nominate someone and risk losing because we want to be true to our beliefs? I don’t know the answer, but it’s something I worry about.
Obama is too young and has too good of a political career ahead of him to hitch his wagon to anybody else, especially the Clinton brand.
Really? Cause here are some numbers for ya.
Obama is 46 years old. Bill Clinton was 47 years old when elected. He was a little older when he was disbarred for lying under oath.
So it’s that extra year you’re wanting Obama to have correct?
Wasn’t Scar a member of the House Judiciary Committee when they were drafting the Articles…?
I don’t know – but if he wasn’t, I bet it haunts him… *g*
So happy for you for your confidence that your candidate is above reproach in any way. Hope your bubble doesn’t get too burst. Hope no mud is flung that your candidate can’t ’splain away. Doesn’t look too good from this angle. Looks like some dirty connections to me.
I am happy if the african americans come out to vote. I think having Obama would look so good for our country and I did like the idea of Edwards as AG
Thank heaven Buchanan et al are off the screen.
I think Oprah mobilized the African American Women vote… To which I give many kudos to, considering they’re the most repressed group…
That is a common theme on wingnut radio…I head on guy call Obama..Barak Mohmmed Hussein..over and over
Per this by Matt Stearns, we are almost surely going to have an old-style brokered nominating convention selecting the Democratic nominee (who will likely be our next president).
In a three-way race, nobody is likely to get a majority. Also, there are a huge number of non-pledged delegates — see here. So, it could easily happen that the person who wins the most delegates in the primaries will not get the nomination.
I cannot disrespect your view on the matter. ;0)
I still want Kucinich. Yes, I know. He’s out of the race. LOL
african-americans just said in SC……. billary – STFU!!!!
There was a book published (don’t know by whom) that described it…before it was sunk. I have it somewhere…will look for it. Could have been the committee she put together to work out the details.
that’s a disgrace and they should be called out on it.
A spy satellite coming down:
WASHINGTON — A large U.S. spy satellite has lost power and could hit the Earth in late February or early March, government officials said Saturday.
The satellite, which no longer can be controlled, could contain hazardous materials, and it is unknown where on the planet it might come down, they said. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the information is classified as secret. It was not clear how long ago the satellite lost power, or under what circumstances.
Just for a bit of historical perspective, in 2004 just under 300,000 voted. Edwards got 45% and Kerry recieved 30%.
Have they projected how many voted today?
We need to stop being afraid. Especially of what Lush Limpdick says.
Scarborough served on the Armed Services, Judiciary, Government Reform, and Education committees. In 1998, he was named Chairman of the Civil Service Committee.
And as you know, he was there in the epicenter of the Newt power days.
That issue has been raise re: the “super delegates. If they go contrary to what is seen as the voters choice..either Hillary or Obama..will that demographic group sit the election out?
Edwards made overtures? Can you point me to a linky on that? Fineman?
Sorry, I’ve missed that, if it occurred. Thanks :-)
Statement released by the Clinton campaign:
“I have called Senator Obama to congratulate him and wish him well.
“Thank you to the people of South Carolina who voted today and welcomed me into their homes over the last year. Your stories will stay with me well beyond this campaign and I am grateful for the support so many of you gave to me.
“We now turn our attention to the millions of Americans who will make their voices heard in Florida and the twenty-two states as well as American Samoa who will vote on February 5th.
“In the days ahead, I’ll work to give voice to those who are working harder than ever to be heard. For those who have lost their job or their home or their health care, I will focus on the solutions needed to move this country forward. That’s what this election is about. It’s about our country, our hopes and dreams. Our families and our future.”
Somebody forgot to pay the bills and they shut the power off.
Here’s one of the Bill C comments the MSNBC folks were discussing as problematic:
Bill on Obama in SC
This stuff hurts Hillary a lot actually – I’m surprised her campaign is not reining him in – her voice is much better at the moment.
“why not endorse him yesterday?”
Because, it seems to me, it will have much more impact in the national press chatter up to the date that matters – Feb 5 – when there will be a test of his strength among ordinary, non-old-South white voters who have moved on after the civil war and really could care less about some stupid “Stars and Bars” dead cause, flag.
He loves Obama.
““In the days ahead, I’ll work to give voice to those who are working harder than ever to be heard. “
That makes it sound like she’s going to work for John Edwards…
Luckily for us, there’s more land mass and water on the Earth than people, so we’re safe. Phew!
Just more good news.
But, thanks for the heads up, I mean the Duck! warning.
I’ve got to go lie down.
I’m sick.
No, really. Head cold gone wild.
Just for a bit of historical perspective, in 2004 just under 300,000 voted. Edwards got 45% and Kerry recieved 30%.
Have they projected how many voted today?
I don’t know projections, but the COUNTED Dem vote at this moment is 369,822! That is with 73% precincts reporting.
WOW!
With 68% reporting CNN has the total vote listed at 343,912.
Bush will blame it on Osama and we’ll attack Canada/
And who’s wagon did the young Bill Clinton hitch his wagon to? Nobody – he made his own way.
My choice is Edwards to be the next president. But I will vote to get rid of the Republicans regardless of the name of my party’s nominee. And I will not chide those who do not agree with my position on the matter. ‘Principles’ matter.
Oh lord – MSNBC is gonna cover the State of the Onion
Address all day Monday – from 6:00 A.M. on….
How many different ways can they say – “It’s. Fucked.”?
I’m sure a large part of it is self-defense. Anyone who was in the military through the 90’s will remember the venom that circulated about the non-existent pay raises that were handed down by Congress under the Clinton administration. As soon as Bush came along, the pay raises were much more generous and more in line with inflation. We also had to put up with “don’t ask, don’t tell” and a number of other little annoyances.
Throughout recent memory, Repub administrations have been associated with growth in military spending and Dems have paralleled reductions. This boils down to a military culture where supporting a Democrat publicly means that you are voting against your peers and your own paycheck. The stigma is pretty strong.
It would really help the woman’s movement in this country if she told her husband to go lay down and don’t come back until she tells him too. LOL
The super delegates are included, I believe, in the overall count of necessary delegate votes to gain the majority number.
Delegates “pledged” to a specific candidate are only required to be responsive to that candidate through the first ballot at the convention.
If there’s more than one ballot at the convention, all sorts of wierd things might happen.
Hell, we might even get supremely lucky and convince Al to run at that point.
Not holding my breath but still, the mind ponders these things.
Maybe, but I think it’s been more evident for a while he hates the Clintons.
Hi guys. Bad time for me to leave the – dishwashing – heh.
Has anyone suggested this yet?
If I owned a grill, I’d anoint a sammich the “PattyMelt”!
in honour of Buck-Cannon. I can’t keep it secret any more. *g*
Sorry. Too much MSNBC can warp-speed mind-spew.
We’re Edwards fans here, but this is just fabulous.
(check out those sorry repubble offerings for contrast)
It makes everyone look at ALL the leading Dem. candidates, regardless …
GO Edwards!
Congrats Obama!
Back to the drawing boards, Hill, and consider keeping the spouse in the background in the future. You do fine on your own merits. Suggest you tell himself to go, sit, stay, and let you handle the tough stuff.
Obviously we need to nuke Canada. ;0)
KaylnMaine – that’s how I’m perceiving the general attitude, even out here on Okinawa.
M.02$ – there’s only a very vague understanding/perception of JFK/RFK/MLK and that era in this X-gen. Nov 22,1963, Apr 04 and June 06, 1968 and the huge trauma that those dates brought don’t ring any bells with this generation, and honestly don’t seem to mean much at all besides being some somewhat distant recent American history.
Having said that, there is this general sense among these younger Americans that the country is best served by a dramatic change in leadership. And, aside from the Faux smears against Obama, he seems to be the one best presenting that theme.
YMMV
Say what you want, but Edwards will be brokering his support base for a job in someone else’s administration.
Me too, me too. I was dithering over Dodd, Kucinich, and Edwards. Before the political hat-tossing began, I was fantasizing about a Feingold/Edwards ticket. then it was a Dodd/Edwards ticket. I planned to vote Kucinich because realism be damned, he’s the kind of president I want. Now it’s Edwards as the last man standing.
FISA is just the tip of the iceberg of reasons why I am not considering Obama or Clinton, either now or in the fall… *sigh* Choices, choices…
Dang you’re good! EXACTLY what I was trying to say tonight. Maybe I’ll just sit back and read your stuff.
Good on ya’
LOL…. I know. For a time I wanted Edwards/Kucinich…. I do much better at the horse races…. much better!
It’s interesting how people immediately jumped at the race issue in the exit poll?
Why not look at the sex, or age data.
People looked at the fact that Obama “only” got 25% of the White vote…but ignore the fact that
He won 55% of the Male vote with Hilllary and Edwards at about 23% each. Clearly THAT means that neither of them attracts male voters!
Or one could take the the Female vote. Obama won 51% of THAT group. Hillary couldn’t win her own gender, she got only 30%. And John Edwards must repulse the female population at 16%. How could either of them win if they can’t even attract a majority of males or females?
Or if you care to look at age
Obama attracted 68% of the 18-29 year olds, 62% of the 30-44 year olds, and 55% of the 45-59 year olds. WHAT A LOSER!
Hillary had 23% of the 18-29 year olds; 23% of the 30-44 year olds; and 26% of the 45-59 year olds.Ooops! I guess Obama isn’t such a loser at all.
And then there’s Edwards…9%, 15%, and 18% in those categories.
And that’s the absurdity of looking at differentiations like race, gender, age or other factors and assuming that the individual will not attract crossover voters. If Obama had not run in South Carolina Edwards and Clinton would have drawn off these (and his black and white) supporters in various ways. Similarly if it had been Obama vs. Edwards, or Obama vs. Clinton the support might not merely diffuse based on race. They might also shift based on gender, age, or even…what a concept….poltics or personality. That’s why it’s absurd to say that White voters wouldn’t support Obama against a Republican. That’s a two person campaign and the issues will be even starker than in a three person Democratic race where the candidates are very close on issues.
We worry about who will be appointed to the SCOTUS by the new president if that prez is Huckabee, Romney, McCain or Rudy.
Lessee–and Obama hitched his wagon to who growing up in a poor neighborhood? Ya think his daddy got him into and through Columbia and Harvard Law–the way Bush’s daddy got him into and through Yale?
Unlike his wife, who is hitching her wagon to her husband who talks most of the time using “I.”
The plan is to let Bill Clinton continue to lash out with poorly disguised racial epithets and to let Bill Clinton do all the trash talking.
It’s up over 400,000 now.
Absolutely! I agree with you wholeheartedly. I just heard on MSNBC that Obama also got a big percentage of votes from college age kids, which means, our young people are NOT looking at him on the surface, but are seeing him as another American who wants better for our country and who is (again) an outsider to the same ole/same ole in DC.
Glad to hear you’re good at betting on horses! Hell, I would have lost all my money by now because my “horse” didn’t make it around corner #3. LOL
Hopefully when the sky is falling, W will panic enough to forget about that martial law emergency powers thingy he EO’d.
I was saying that Obama is too young to be part of the Clinton brand and that Clinton made his own way as well. We agree.
FWIW, the Punahou School is not the “poor neighborhood” kind of school.
There was one about January 11th that indicated that Edwards was down about 6% from McCain in a head-to-head. Obama and Clinton were within the statistical range of error. All three of the Democratic candidates trounce all the remaining Republicans by almost 10%. Some people used to say that Edwards beats them by more, thus he’s the “best” candidate…but it seems that his margins have diminished considerably vis-a-vis Clinton and Obama since the primaries have started. That’s an effect of the winners of those Primaries getting a “bounce”.
TLinGA – I agree with your summation. But, you know what sometimes just frustrates the livin’/f@#$ing daylights out of me? It’s constrasting what you just stated with the undeniable status of the U.S. Armed Forces today, especially the current operational status of the U.S. Army and USMC. Cheney & Bush have wrecked these two services, in terms of operational readiness. Yet, I’d have to threaten waterboarding most active duty folks out here to publicly admit that obvious outcome.
I guess when you’re wearing the uniform, you obey your orders and superiors. But the ignorance displayed in trashing what Carter and Clinton did really do in terms of supporting the Armed Forces is just that – ignorance, perpetuated by Faux News.
[Note to NSA — if you’re reading this, kma_and_mha.]
“… if wishes were horses…”
I think the polls were farrrrrr off again weren’t they? Doesn’t that make the polls really suspect as far as trying to drive the voters?. It does in my mind, anyway.
SC and Caroline Kennedy are absolutely telling hillary to go sit down and take her husband with her. What damage these two have just done to the Democratic Party and his status as elder statesman.
Thank you South Carolina!!!!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1….._care_plan"> Wikipedia summary of the 1993 Health Care Plan
A long detailed presentation of the elements of the plan
http://www.upenn.edu/pnc/ptbok.html">Analysis of What went wrong in the “selling” of the plan…by Derek Bok
Here you go, I had no trouble Googling it up…along with many detailed commentaries and critiques from groups like the (ahem) Heritage Institute.
MyrtleJune — LOL. You’re spot-on.
This will be EPU’d, but I believe that by by late spring, Bill is gonna have to take a sudden overseas trip, to say, South Africa, to visit Nelson Mandela, or something.
Either that, or Hil’s gonna be literally thrashing the livin’ daylights out of him for blowing it for her. Stories about SS agents hearing lamps crashing against walls are going to be tame stuff compared to Hil’s wrath when it becomes inescapable that Bill blew her shot at the W.H.
Distance = safety.
That first link is no good for me, Cin Ape
…or the third one…
She should have taken that kind of stand (publically) when the Blow Job Scandal hit.
Sweet isn’t it? Do you think Bill Clinton has any idea how seriously he’s been repudiated? It’s a new day…
OMG!
Don’t know if it has said this but 50% of white men voted for Obama, I read.
Read where, please?
It was up earlier at Kos, I think (sorry, for the lack of a link).
I constantly have problems at FDL with multiple linky’s. So I have to doi them one at a time.
Long Executive Summary of the Details of the Plan
The Clinton plan was a universal (yes, everyone), mandatory program with only a select set of plans. The idea was that the Federal government would approve plans and the costs would be reduced from insurers competing for the privilege of being within the selected set. Employers would be required to offer employees insured plans from within the set. People below a certain income level, or employers who were authentically having difficulty meeting the mandatory insurance coverage would be assisted.
There would be no opt out, wealthy, healthy and unwise would still have to be covered. I can’t recall if there was some way for wealthier individuals to pay more and get CAT scans and botox (i.e cosmetic surgery) by going “private”…or if they’d have to leave the country for that? I recall that was a BIG talking point for Rush Limbaugh (probably wondering where he would be able to obtain his extra dosages of Oxycontin). All plans would have a strong emphasis on preventative healthcare. I believe dental, vision, and pre- and perinatal care was covered.
Not sure if coverage was to be implemented through a series of expansions of services to particular classes or all at once.
CNN’s numbers would suggest that is not accurate.
white male vote – here is the link http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…..668/443779
Obama also won a majority of whites under thirty (see my link at 250)
From your link:
And CNN would agree with you about non-black age 18-29.
The liberal dilemma is that “WE” don’t have ultimate power on how the party is going to vote. “WE” don’t nominate anyone. “We” participate, along with others, in a process. We have a voice, and can vote. If you are an uncommitted, or a third place candidates, delegate it might be something that one has to consider down the road. But I really think that we have to let the Parties nomination process run its course.
That’s Democracy…as imperfect as it is.
To put Obama’s vote total in perspective, he got more votes today than all the Democrats combined in the 2004 South Carolina primary. And the total Democratic vote today was significantly higher than the Republican primary vote a week ago. And that’s in South Carolina, which is a red state by anyone’s definition. This is going to be a great year for Democrats.
Religious initiative cash will continue..
No. Clinton hasn’t really been attacked by Republicans yet and he has some skeletons hanging around. His numbers will drop. Clinton’s numbers are lower, but there is no mud around to throw at her that has not already been thrown.
Er, that should be Obama really hasn’t been attacked by Republicans yet.
As an aside: I’m amused to see that there’s a fair bit of denial that race is an issue still. Smacks of pre-judged analysis to me. I’d love to believe that race is not an issue, but when I see 80% of one racial group vote for a candidate of the same group, sorry, can’t buy it. I will also point out that there’s huge cognitive dissonance on this issue amongst a lot of liberals. They want to act like race doesn’t matter in voting, yet support things like affirmative action. So race isn’t a factor in who people vote for, but it is a factor in who they hire? Say what?
But the thing is, if you look at the political contributions Obama has received, he IS a part of the *Establishment*.
I don’t get why people don’t look at him a little harder. It kind of reminds me of Reagan all over again–Obama is very good with words, but he is indebted to the corporate world.