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Boy, the New York Times has really managed to produce some quality analysis from their columnist lately. It must be the Bill Kristol effect (of course, Maureen Dowd's issues continue).
But Bobo Brooks is swimming with the counter-factual tide and has himself a blog and manages to crank out this statement:
Republicans voted in nearly the same numbers as Democrats. In Iowa, Democratic interest swamped Republican interest. In New Hampshire, the Democrats had an edge, but it was not huge.
Um, yeah...
As his own paper's Ron Klain points out (and as a number of people pointed out here and on other blogs yesterday) Brooks is laughably wrong...as usual.
The four Democratic candidates last night drew about 270,000 votes between them, while the larger G.O.P. field drew about 210,000, or about 60,000 more votes for the Democrats than the Republicans. Maybe this sounds like a small difference to some, but given that fewer than 700,000 New Hampshirites voted in the last general election for president, a 60,000-vote differential in that small state is quite significant.
In the real world, as opposed to "Bobo's World", 56% of voters going Democratic to 44% for the GOP is pretty significant. In fact, as Klain states, it is unusual in New Hampshire's history:
In the three decades since 1980, there have been four primary years when both the G.O.P. and the Democratic nominations were contested – 1988, 1992, 2000 and 2008. In all three of the previous elections, there were more votes cast in the Republican primaries than in the Democratic primaries. The G.O.P. margin was almost 40,000 votes in 1988 and almost 80,000 votes in 2000. So to see more votes cast in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary last night than in the state’s Republican one — not to mention 60,000 more votes — is almost as historic as seeing a one-two finish by a woman and an African-American.
It also tells you that one of the most historically Republican states in the country has moved on. The Independents are coming out for the Democrats, and in New Hampshire they came out in droves for Obama AND Clinton.
But if Bobo and other GOP shills want to keep up this sloppy and non-panicking analysis, be our guests.
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Hi Attaturk. I caught (I think it was) Bobo being interviewed along with one or two others on NPR this evening on my way home from work. They were admitting how wrong they had been in their predictions, when he jokingly said:
That’s my best recollection of what I heard (while focusing on driving in heavy traffic). It was a very wierd comment, even for a joke.
Most recent vote totals, NH Primary
Dems:….287,580….54.6%
GOP:…..238,909….45.4%
Total:…526,489
Difference: 48,671 votes
Source: http://ronrox.com/paulstats.php?party=REPUBLICANS
Comment: The differential between the parties is closing as the absentee ballots are being counted. A very typical scenario.
What fools. Davey Brooks’ locker, mateys?
Aaaarrrggh…
bobo uses Karl Rove’s math
Interesting how these little nuggets of truth pop up from time to time.
Good morning, pups. It’s TOMC and Roger Cohen in the Times today. TOMC
wrotetyped something called “Hillary’s Free Pass.” She has theories, yes indeed she does. Her favorite theory is that this week Hillary Clinton was a stand-in for every woman who’s overdosed on multitasking. Mr. Cohen wonders if ethanol is for everybody, and says that behind the buzz over Brazil’s cane-based ethanol production lurk enduring social problems.http://mgpaquin.wordpress.com/
It is now my considered opinion that all of the Very Serious Pundits should be placed in bilateral elbow casts until the November election is over. They’d be so busy trying to figure out how to eat, dress and go to the bathroom that they wouldn’t have the time or energy to
writetype columns.The coffee, tea and hot chocolate are ready. We went to the Fresh Market yesterday evening and they had some lovely brioche I just couldn’t resist. Help yourselves, and try some of the pear preserves. Have a great day.
TOMC = ?
Good morning Attaturk and firepups.
Appears to be Gail Collins, although I’m not sure how that gets to be TOMC. Marion?
Here is the program I mentioned.
bilateral elbow casts ?
Is that where they join both hands/arms together in a uni-cast? *g* Now *there’s* an idea whose time has come!
Hopefully today or tomorrow will be a FM day at this end of the toobz. Ordered one of their pre-cooked turkeys for Christmas…absolutely recommend, yum-yum.
Gail Collins — The Odious Miss Collins.
Thankee…..
I found CNN’s entrance polls in Iowa to be quite interesting, e.g., the statistic that among democrats voting in the Democratic Caucus, Hillary and Barak were neck-and-neck. Has anyone seen a similar breakdown for the NH results?
Is there lead in the water over there? Sometimes they have lead pipes in those old buildings.
If Conservative Thinkers could do math we would not have this huge defecit.
We would not have invaded Iraq (zero is less than any WMD).
The tax cuts would have been recognized as revenue-negative.
Trickle-down would be something that happens to teenage boys.
National Health Care would be recognized as cost-effective.
Conservative Thinkers are, however, very capable of summing the contents of their own wallets.
“Conservative Thinkers?” There are such beasts? Who knew!?
Hey marion.
Is that an oxymoron on the loose there?
Arnie, I think so. Particularly if you make certain to place the stress on the proper syllables: oxymoron.
[waves at Beerfart Liberal]
Well here it is. A few disclaimers, first:
1) I’ve heard that pundits’ political prognostications are not always right;
2) The Sentinel is (I better be careful here).. considered by a not insignificant number of people to be a piece of crap; and
3) I never heard of the Insider Advantage poll. Anybody?
Anyway, here’s some news from Florida.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com.....3800.story
More (and more and more) in the days to come. My take: Rudy’s been fading but I think he has enough mulah to hang on against Huckelberry. And I think the R’s are winner take all. If so no matter how close it is, if Rudy can win, he’ll be declared back in it. Maybe rightly so (for a change).
Query: At this point, what is the rationale, if any, for Thompson’s continued candidacy?
To paraphrase Bugs Bunny: “What an oxymaroon.”
waves back
The MSM meme that women voters will flock to HRC because she is not a man is laughable and downright sexist. Hello MSM women do not vote as a unit.
Saying that women will vote for hrc because she is woman is insulting and assumes that women are too bloody stupid to be able to vote anything but sexual preference.
My (female) spouse has HRC listed at the bottom of the pile because she is part and parcel of the same corporate greed crowd that spawned the bushies et al. She supports Edwards because he is opposed to big tax cuts for the rich, opposed to corporate politics, opposed to the illegal invasion in Iraq and for universal health care with no opt outs.
PS If there are Richardson supporters out there looking for a candidate please join the Edwards revolution. I did as Richardson was my candidate of choice before I switched to Edwards.
PPS Marion you are very brave reading the crap from NYT every morning
Erm,
I think the proper phrase is oxymoran.
(Damn!!! I can’t find the picture link someone supplied two days ago.)
TIme to “restart my computer to install important updates”
c’y'all
Thank you for your new support of Edwards. You may want to check his website and get harassed for money. Or not.
Thank you also for using te word “sexist.” If I saw the word “misogynistic” one more time, my head might have ’sploded.
careful, it’s probably that “verify your software” jazz!
Good Morning, Firepups!
It’s clear and cool this morning in central Jersey, with rain in the forecast for late this afternoon. We’re still enjoying mild temperatures, which are supposed to last through the weekend.
Ooooh, brioche from the Fresh Market! Yum!!! Every time Mr. NJP and I visit my mom in South Carolina, we go shopping a the Fresh Market. We’re down to the last two slices of two loaves of the most delicious 12-grain pumpernickel bread that we bought over the holidays. :-( And we’ve polished off the container of best colseslaw ever–that we brought home with us to NJ. We loooove FM! And we looooove brioche! Thanks, Marion, you’re a peach!
Well, Attaturk, I just love your takedown of Bobo’s latest “it’s always good for Republicans, and it’s always bad for Democrats” piece of specious reasoning. But the best bit of Republican wishful thinking is the cover of the latest issue of The Weekly Standard.
I’ve got more coffee here, and hot water for tea, in case Marion runs out. And Marion, I’ll trade you some morning glory muffins for two brioches.
Work for peace, every day.
PS Don’t forget to wear orange tomorrow to protest our nation’s shame: the treatment of prisoners at Guantanamo.
On the NPR program I mentioned above, Brooks asserted that Hillary is the candidate of the high-school educated crowd, while Obama is the candidate of the college educated. The claim seemed to be that the high-school educated are interested in more bread-and-butter issues and take more of consumer attitude toward candidates, as in “What are you going to do about this or that?”
Just got back from watertiger’s place and she’s got a photo of a thompson supporter (looks to be about his age) with contacts that have a flag in them….wt claims it ain’t photoshopped. With dedication like that, how can he possibly withdraw? s/
What the hell happened to Gail Collins?
She used to be a really smart writer before they put her in charge of the Editorial page and made MoDo the woman’s voice, but she seems to have come back as Ann Althouse.
They got my monthly cheque…and they will more. I am not giving up!
Say what??? He wasn’t enough of a doofus to say that out loud, was he? He’s implying, in my view, that the high-school-educated are actually out there looking at the issues and how the candidates’ positions will affect them. Sounds pretty smart to me. I guess that college crowd is Very Much More Serious and are Deep Thinkers who Ponder The Important Imponderables, or some such shit… Gawd.
Poor Bobo. He’s trying to make the republicans appear relevant and engaged!
Nice try.
nah
did I ever mention i *do* network security
^_^
I can remember that back in the day Dowd used to be someone whose writing I enjoyed. It’s got to be cocktail weenie poisoning…
Could not agree more. And I saw the discussion yesterday on FDL and did not want to stoke the fire.
Gloria Steinem has a piece in the Times that may be worth a look: Women Are Never Front-Runners.
Bilbo to the rescue.
Here are CNN’s exit-poll data from NH: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20.....#val=NHDEM
Save this URL. The way I found this data after all else failed was to replace “IA” by “NH” in the final segment. ;-)
Thanks, Bilbo! That superhero cape suits you. I still snicker at that picture.
Actually, here’s a better version of the Moran picture.
From Steinem
What worries me is that male Iowa voters were seen as gender-free when supporting their own, while female voters were seen as biased if they did and disloyal if they didn’t.
What worries me most is that people will vote for either BO or HRC because of the black/woman issues. I, frankly, trust neither of them because they are bought and paid for already by big business. As my wonderful wife says she would not have voted for Maggie Thatcher or Idi Amin either.
At #9 I left a like to the program. You can listen for yourself. It’s about a nine minute program and those comments were made near the end, say the final two minutes (IIRC).
And OT, but when you’re looking for pictures such as this, use
If you simply entry the word “moran” into the search box you’ll find what you were looking for. Sometimes searches are a bit trickier than that, but Google’s pretty smart and searches become better with practice too.
Good Morning!
ON WASHINGTON JOURNAL
Thursday, January 10
7am - Newspaper Articles & Viewer Calls
7:30am - Paul Smith, Attorney Representing Indiana & Tom Fisher, Attorney Arguing for Indiana on the Voter ID Law
8:30am - Dawson Bell, Detroit Free Press, Political Reporter
9am - Conrad Crane, Army War College, Military History Institute Director
9:30am - Newspaper Articles & Viewer Calls
If you put in moron you will pictures of…..
Thanks for the linky. I’m staying at home today, a bit under the weather, so I’ll have to weigh the time free to listen to it against the possibility/probability that it will make me feel worse than I already do!
shorter bobo
guess these freepers never watched much Python
Now Go Away, Or I shall Taut You Again
“I scoff in your general direction.”
Does this work?
Good morning, pups.
Is it safe?
(homage to movie Marathon Man)
Hmmm…wonder if this one’s gonna be about the Vietnam War hoaxes?
Good morning everybody!
Not gonna tell ya
sounds more passed gas :)
What were you trying to do, Lindy?
The Nashau Telegrapg has a interesting article on the reasons for the results in the NH primary.
http://www.nashuatelegraph.com...../973263876
Here is a good quote from the article:
Clinton tossed aside the playbook and turned her trademark, choreographic events into unvarnished exchanges between hungry voters who supplied questions across the issue spectrum.
They were long, tedious and successful because they showed a candidate who’s knowledgeable and loves to talk public policy.
At every stop, Clinton heard from voters worried about the economy with soaring fuel prices, higher job losses and more home foreclosures.
Meanwhile, Obama recoiled into a comfortable cocoon, giving the same uplifting stump speech at every venue, shaking thousands of hands, taking none of their questions.
Maybe it’s just a coincidence but these two spoke back-to-back on successive days before huge crowds in three large communities – Nashua, Manchester and Salem.
Obama won their hearts but Clinton won their votes. Head-to-head, Clinton beat Obama in all three by a 60 percent to 40 percent spread.
TiredFed!
Good to see you.
Marion, your breakfast always brighten my day, no matter how many items were added to Hugh’s list of Repub crimes…
Looking forward to the election that really counts…
how about announcing your breakfast menu for the day after elections day so that pups as break fast across the time zones can feel as if they are together at a gianormous new year’s day buffet….
Can’t imagine where else we would want to be but together.
was seeing if the blink command worked…not here *grin*
Savanah. Georgia. Peach. Good one. I actually “got” one for a change. And pretty early in the a.m., too. (Pats self on back.)
Interesting, you come south and bring stuff back to NJ. We go to (central) NJ and we bring stuff (bagels, especially) south. I’m dying for some Jersey tomatoes and sweet corn. And pizza. And frkielbasa. And good fish & chips.
Me too welcomes you. Been wondering if you were in one of your distant houses (IIRC, Italian) or doing under cover work for us in some US Federal court house.
Anyway, good to read you even if the joke was obscure.
Ah, yes, the infamous deprecated HTML blink tag. Actually, most blog sites, including this one, filter out most user embedded HTML and leave only a fairly rudimentary subset.
Andrea Mitchell was just on JoScar. She gave herself a pass for her own Hillary-bashing (and to me, she’s the worst). Said the tabloids were unfair and the photos were designed to make HRC look bad. But JoScar and herself, well they were just reporting the news.
Republican women in NH are very much pro choice and I do believe that made a difference in the vote.
If he had to make a dumb-assed generalization, it could easily be the opposite: Hillary is about issues and therefore appeals to the well-educated; BO is more about themes and therefore appeals to people who don’t study issues. That, of, course, is not true either. Just sayin’ generalizations like that can be molded just about any way. And they’re wrong. So they’re just not worth making. Why does he/they persist in making them? I can’t believe what he’s saying either.
Amazing that with the MSM pounding away at puke talking points for 8 years the people are pretty pissed even if they are relatively uninformed.
Imagine if they got the real story and the honest truth about what was / has been going down in the beltway.
Interesting to see if the people have had enough of pols and bobbleheads and throw them all out. We can dream.
OK, I’m a stupid male. What was so bad about the Collins piece?
new thread upstairs. Tweety this time. again.
Here are two breakdowns using the Exit polls
LA Times Graphic display of Democrats
CNN Crosstabulations
I found most interesting the question on religion. The survey showed strikingly large numbers of individuals for both Parties actually don’t attend church much or at all.
Bobo Brooks is the spitting image of R. Crumb’s comix character Bo Bo Belinski, the world’s number one human zero. Of course he does have some serious competition in Wingnuttery.
I heard that remark, too. It kind of warmed me to the creep. Sometimes we don’t give them enough credit. They know they are lying through their teeth. I guess that’s what is called being a hack.
The way it works in NH, it’s entirely possible that more R’s voted than D’s.
McBobo’s published work has never been about “analysis”. His job is to “interpret” the world for Wingnuttia. That is, to reassure Middle America that, facts notwithstanding, all is well for them and their worldview. And to reassure the Oligarchs that, while his penny loafers are considerably smaller than Bill Safire’s hobnailed boots, he’s running and stomping as fast as he can.