Hard to be a ‘good’ campaigner when you are outspent 6 to 1 and the corporatist media ‘disappears’ you.

The only reason Obama is in this race is to stop Edwards. Without him in the race what does it look like

Edwards would likely pick up a lot more of the vote to the right of Hillary — votes Obama is taking at the moment. They really are dividing up a vote, though it’s not exactly a Progressive vote. It’s just seen in the polls as more Republicans and Independents and a little less traditional Dems. Of course, I’m certain Obama thinks Edwards is just a pain in his neck and is taking votes from him.

I think of him as more to the left, but apparently the public thinks the opposite.

This produces a curious situation: if Hillary wins then there’s going to be a large contingent just to her right, but willing to vote Dem and no candidate they’ll really want to vote for. They would be more likely to go for a Bloomberg or a Giuliani I’d guess.

If Obama were to get the nomination, then there would be a fairly large contingent to his left which would be a little hesitant to go with him. They might, but there’s no guarantee and a lot of us have been really pissed at being blackmailed into always having to vote for a conservative Dem instead of getting someone more representative of our own views. Personally, I’d prefer Hillary over Obama, despite her corporate problems and her triangulation. I see that as less offensive as what might be lurking around Obama.

If Edwards can still somehow manage to maneuver Hillary out, then there’s no guarantee those people would switch to him. In fact, it might backfire and shift them to Biden or out of the game altogether.

Edwards needs the votes Obama has tied up. Simple as that. Hillary needs a few more votes to lock it up and I see no natural way for her to get them. It’s a deadlock as far as the eye can see (unless there’s some scandal or dramatic development).

Edwards just isn’t that good a campaigner. I’m not sure what it is that’s missing, but he couldn’t get traction last time, either – not even in the South IIRC.

One thing the polls are showing is that he isn’t trusted and that might just be him or it could be the eternal label attached to a trial lawyer.

On many issues he tracks more closely with Hillary than with Obama. Obama appears to appeal more to Repubs and Independents than to traditional Dems.

So, considering the difference in Hillary’s and John’s numbers I’d say the biggest thing is name recognition and the trust factor. Edwards tends to overcome the trust issue with a lot of personal contact. But, in a national campaign that’s simply impossible to do.

Also, curiously (in my mind), Hillary is right up there with Edwards on leadership. That, despite the fact Edwards has led on everything during this campaign. I’d guess the issues debate didn’t hurt Hillary so much as it gave the public the feeling she was in there fighting, even though she failed she was trying to lead. Meanwhile, Edwards ‘leadership’ so far is considered good, but more words and less certain than Hillary’s real efforts. So, I guess you could say her ‘experience’ does pay off in a roundabout way.

To my mind one of the big disappointments, or maybe it just isn’t captured well by the polls, is that Edwards Progressivism and vision aren’t translating to anything positive. Without the ‘trust’ it doesn’t seem to matter. Of course, ‘trust’ is just a word and might again relate more to name/face recognition than anything else. Even Obama can’t quite compete with Clinton, though he’s not too far behind, on that score. Her decades in the public eye is money well spent.

Hard to be a ‘good’ campaigner when you are outspent 6 to 1 and the corporatist media ‘disappears’ you.

You got it. When I was in NH this weekend, you could see the money pouring off the Clinton and Obama campaigns. The Edwards campaign office didn’t even have the little wire stands to put their lawn signs around. There literally were not any Edwards signs around, while I saw hundreds of HUGE 8 by 10 Clinton and Obama signs.

The only reason Obama is in this race is to stop Edwards. Without him in the race what does it look like?

Maybe he’s not married…to a woman….

Any more.

I think you’ll see him come out of the closet this year. Be much healthier for the fat, stupid fuck.

- recession IS coming
- war is still on

but I do not think a fear thing. However its not that they put in a fear argument. I do not think however that Clitons (bill and hillary) injected these doubts at the last moment.

Its just one small state primary. Oh and it has great data not that any pundit is smart enough to look all the data even over the course of one election cycle not to mention spewing stuff on election night (so they stick to brainless stuff and take no risk, or a pre-set sript (or are a hack)),