Zed

Hiya Jane!

How’s your cold today?

Most polls show that Obama’s lead is down–from 13 points yesterday to 5 points this morning.

I predict that New Hampshire will remain in the Northeast possibly close to the Canadian border. Politically, I predict it will continue to be an unrepresentative sore on the backside of American politics.

That’s an awfully big jump in a short time. If it was just one or two polls, it would lead me to question the polling. but it it’s a bunch of them… Hmm.

Record turnout. Which is all that really matters to me.

High turnout is a restatement of the 2006 results.

We didn’t get what we wanted then. There was a good chance people would say “aw, screw it.” and go back to the mall.

But if they are gonna turn out, then they are making a statement for a new, progressive direction.

Al Wynn’s sweating.

Everyone should read FlaDem, shorter version, give the voters a chance to speak.

Wahoo!…

How Edwards doing?….

And this from the Gray Lady:

Mrs. Clinton is trying to steel herself against pessimism, but both she and Mr. Clinton are feeling disappointment, advisers say.

“We’re all resolved to the probability that’s she’s not going to win New Hampshire, and the mood has turned very despondent — fatalistic, probably,” one of Mrs. Clinton’s leading fund-raisers and supporters said on Monday on condition of anonymity.

“No one worth their salt is going to jump ship at this point, and she’ll probably play it out till Super-Duper Tuesday,” the fund-raiser said, referring to the Feb. 5 primaries. “But the money dynamic is going to get very, very tough; convincing people to send more money will be very tough.”

Jane, I have some advice for Hillary, dump Mark Penn & don a pencil skirt & v-neck cable knit sweater.

The media and their corporate owners are scared shitless by the Edwards message. Hillary is safe because she is owned by the older generation of corporatists and Obama is safe because he is owned by the younger generation of the same corporatists. Edwards is scary because he wants to undo all the corporate consolidation of power that has been happening for the last 25 or so years.

I’m liking the Edwards Escalation.
Hillary is flopping around like a fish out of water which seems totally out of character for her.
Obama has the momentum going right now but it is still early, the big states haven’t come into play yet.
Surprisingly, Edwards doesn’t seem to do all that well in the South.
The fact that he is still in there swinging away without hardly any media attention says good things to me, that he has a solid base who have already made up their mind.

That is a great YouTube! Bravenewfilms did a great job on that one!

No matter whoever wins in NH the race is far from over except for the Repubilcans who might as well just stay home the rest of the year.

I look forward to the comparison of the Dem and GOP primary numbers, I predict that the number of voters participating in the Dem primary will dwarf that of the GOP.

Jane,
I was going to make myself a sandwich, but after the stench from the Faux folks, my appetite is down a bit, now. I predict I will eventually eat lunch.

All I can envision is Katherine Hepburn - is that what you see?

After lunch it is back to the polls for me holding an Edwards sign. Polling is very heavy from what I can see with Inds going heavily for Dems. For whom? I don’t know but traffic for Obama is high. Not so many Inds going for the goopers from what I see.

My prediction is that big business will win again as they did in Iowa but clinton 2, even if she come in second, will not do so well as she/MSM have worked for. The poor, disenfranchised, uninsured, poorly treated workers and progressives will come in third but Edwards will continue encouraged by a good strong result.

The fact that the culinary workers in Nevada are going to go for Obama is bad news for Clinton.

Well, if a big state like Nevada goes to Obama, a middling state like California should just cancel its primary. Could anyone have devised a stupider way of selecting a Presidential candidate? Even rock paper scissors looks fairer and more sophisticated than this.

i’m not a Hillary fan (too much of an old-fashioned moderate Republican for me) but i wouldn’t be surprised if she regained lead. I think the “weather” is too unstable to make long-term projections.

I love looking at the graphic with the trends of all candidates. Some go up and down, Edwards is just a steady climb.

“Surprisingly, Edwards doesn’t seem to do all that well in the South.”

No surprise. The majority of voters in Dem primaries in the South are black.

Obama will win, but it will be tight. McCain will win, but it will also be tight. McCain had been leading Romney in the polls by about 4-5 points, but this morning they’re running neck and neck. McCain will pull ahead,’coz Romney’s unlikability factor will eventually work against him.

Hmmm. I think it’s going to be Obama-Edwards-Clinton again for Dems.

I’m far more interested in the Republican side. Romney seems to be polling even with McCain, which doesn’t make much sense to me. At least two major newspapers have pointed out that Emperor Romney has no clothes on, and it doesn’t seem to be hurting him in the polls. I’m not really sure how it’s going to go. I think that the undecideds are going to break heavily for the Dems, which is bad news for McCain. Any independent who heard his 100-years-in-Iraq comment is going to run screaming from the Republican party. I also think that Ron Paul is going to do much better than he’s been polling, because his voters are the kind of people who hang up on telephone pollers. With all that said, I still can’t figure out who’s going to bother voting in the Republican primary. My wildass guess for the results would be: McCain-Romney-Paul-Huckabee.

Who knows? A lot of women may be pretty mad at the arrogant female bashing. Personally, I’m really tired seeing Hillary be the punching bag for a lot of hateful people. Go for the issues, not personal attack. When people make sexist attacks, they self-reveal. Issues. Issues. Issues. Position. Position. Position.

Would you mind linking to one of those?

Seconded.

I am still pulling for JRE.

Happy New Year Everyone:
http://www.freewayblogger.com/season3.htm

peace on earth.

All I have been hearing is Obama McCain Obama McCain. . . . kind of like it is supposed to be a foregone conclusion.

’splain please

Will Alan Keyes fare well there then?

Better, thanks.

Kobe made me take him to the Starbucks this morning by saying pumpkin loaf is the best thing for a cold.

I think it’s working.

Anyone know when results from today’s primary will start to come out?

I predict I voted for Edwards.

Obama and McCain will win easily.

Edwards could come in 2nd but unlikely as he was ignored and Clinton had a good lead and lost most to Obama rather than going to Edwards.

Mitt can probably hang on for 2nd.

Ron Paul places above Rudy or close. Fred lower than in Iowa.

1. Obama
2. Clinton (down by 9 - 12)
3. Edwards :(
4. don’t care but will be Richarson, I think Edwards comes in 10 pts ahead of this

1. McCain
2. Romney (down 9)
3. Huck (~ 15%)
4. Rudy/Ron Paul (10 - 14 % total range)
5. Fred

Got some things to do, will check back later at the lake…

Best of Luck pups!…

I predict: no matter who wins, it will be good for the Republicans.

Except that Obama’s “attaction” seems to be this “message of hope” - that is not a position, that’s a belief structure. I’m just furious about the whole thing - he’s been waving his “aura” around and everyone has been falling for it. Where’s the beef, Barak?

Hugh, I have to disagree with you a bit. New Hampshire is not representative of the US racially but it is very representative of the US politically. It has just about every political faction you can have. There is agriculture, rural vs urban, transplants vs old timers, old union and manufacturing, high tech and new industries, and the old fashioned conservative vs liberal. It even has various flavors of immigrants from various cultures being assimilated with varying degrees of difficulty.

You may not like New Hampshire and obviously feel that they are unworthy of their place in the political selection process, but please recognize that they do not necessarily march to the inside beltway VSP drumbeat. If you want to blame a group for the out size influence of New Hampshire, you can blame the other states who all rushed to push their primaries and caucuses ahead as that has done is magnify the impact of NH (and Iowa).

Obviously YMMV

I predict that all the losing candidates will start crying on national teevee because they think it’ll win them votes.

I, of course, blame Clinton.

Agreed. Money could be a real problem for her going forward.

It’s not an escalation. It’s a surge.

Romney was, of course, Governor of Massachusetts, so there is a regional factor involved. The immigration issue may also play a role. But when you are dealing with a group all of whom are batshit crazy, it is difficult to figure out how or why one candidate would be preferred over another.

I don’t dare tell my guys about pumpkin loaf. I can’t afford to buy for four.

Yep, shoulder pads & all. I am supporting Edwards, but I truly believe Hillary is the smartest person in the race. Even with all her faults, I would be proud if she were our President.

Meanwhile, Edwards is the only candidate who has been consistently climbing in the national polls since before the Iowa caucuses. As FlaDem points out, Obama’s bounce is predictable for anyone who won Iowa — while the Edwards rise seems to be the result of more people hearing his message and liking it. (Although having seen Obamamania up close and personal in Iowa, I don’t think that accounts for all of it.)

But will the press cover the Edwards surge? Doubtful. They seem quite disinterested in him.

Is Edwards “surging”? Is he “climbing”? Or rather is he, as Rochard Wolffe put it on last night’s CountDown, “creeping up in the polls”? Framing is everything.

Re:

Anyone know when results from today’s primary will start to come out?

Shortly after 8 PM EST

Shortly after 1 AM GMT

I think Romney might be a bit closer to McCain, and that the evangelicals mobilize for Huck, so maybe a tighter cluster at the top of the Republican side.

But I think those Ron Paul people are PISSED about Fox and Paul may drub Rudy.

Wishful thinking? Maybe, but here goes:

36 / 28 / 28 / 7 / 1
Obama / Clinton / Edwards / Richardson / Kucinich

29 / 27 / 18 / 12 / 12 / 2
McCain / Romney / Huckabee / Guiliani / Paul / Thompson

I am living in NC & can tell you the local perception of Edwards is as an ambulance chaser.

My three actually split it with me, so that’s four.

But you can never have too much pumpkin loaf, or so I’m told. Every morning. About 11 am.

And if I make the mistake of taking Kobe earlier, it doesn’t matter. Around 11 am he turns into a huge pest.

Rudy needs to buy some Butter futures, he’s toast.

“Blessed are the cheesemakers”

For convention if the losers do not bow out then Edwards throws his support to Obama unless Obama has been weakened in the General election for some reason or the Econ tanks as is likely he may win.

Richardson tries to hang on to have some delegates to throw to Clinton.

If Rs go to convention then whoever controls that silly party decides who the MAN is.

Yeah, I don’t get the Obama phenomenon. How does he get people so whipped up with such platitudes? But if his personality is so infectious, why aren’t I infected? Am I not human?

Sounds like my frieds work places…”perception”.

Wonder where the perception came from in a Red state.

Oh Talented Ones of FDL, this should be fun! Write a caption for an impeachment cartoon!Impeach Bush/Cheney contest!

McClatchy Cartoon Contest Write your own caption
Try your hand at political cartooning — at least the portion that doesn’t require pen and ink. Suggest a short caption for this image to enter our McClatchy cartoon contest and compete to win a signed original from Jim Morin of the Miami Herald.

And today’s Froomkin post

I believe a big part of Hillary’s problem is that in focusing on her overall experience she’s failing to notice that part of that experience is her association with the 110th Congress — probably the worst Democratic-led Congress in history — as they enabled and supported and protected from impeachment the worst president and VP in history, and kept the war in Iraq going full speed as well.

Also the press is not dis-interested in him. The order is out to make sure he does not win as that would really put a boil on the “well-borns” ass - especially with the recession crash coming.

Except that Obama’s “attaction” seems to be this “message of hope” - that is not a position, that’s a belief structure. I’m just furious about the whole thing - he’s been waving his “aura” around and everyone has been falling for it. Where’s the beef, Barak?

Toby - I feel like I’m in the middle of a Hollywood drama in which I’m looking and listening to the behind-the-scenes drama and it ain’t pretty. Yep. Duped, again. Elmer Gantry rules the primaries.

< in Edwards</p>

Meanwhile, Edwards is the only candidate who has been consistently climbing in the national polls since before the Iowa caucuses. As FlaDem points out, Obama’s bounce is predictable for anyone who won Iowa — while the Edwards rise seems to be the result of more people hearing his message and liking it. (Although having seen Obamamania up close and personal in Iowa, I don’t think that accounts for all of it.)

I have alwasys said the first few primaries are who makes movement not who wins, it’s who moves up in the polls, who makes a surprising performance

the media is flat out scared shitless of edwards, they refuse to even achnowledge he exists

even air america is totally ignoring him

movement is all that really matters, if hillary can do better here then ohio that’s a good thing, if she does worse I don’t know how many more she can keep competing

on the other hand she still leads in the polls in most of the primaries so it is still hers to loose no matter how oboma or edwards do

Does anyone know whether Ron Paul has done any NH media buys?

The graphic I was thinking of I believe I saw on TPM. Now I am serching Pollster, which seems to be the place Josh gets his poll graphics, and they are not really affirming my memory.

Now I’m kinda bummed. Must what I WANTED to remember…

Well, I disagree with your disagreement. I do not see that New Hampshire reflects the South, the West, the West Coast, or the Midwest. Even if it was representative of its own region, how much more representative would states like New York or Pennsylvania be. Giving penny ante states such power is a debasement of the principle of one man one vote. Why should the votes of a relatively small number of New Englanders or Iowans be worth so much more than mine?

Thanks. So 7ish here.

Yeah, its not like the had their 2 congressional districts flip in 2006 (or against Bush in 2004 flipping Red to Blue). To bad the cheap wine took so long to wear off.

Best pumpkin bread ever.

That sounds like my crew, except it happens when the sun goes down. I have started to take them out for individual walks offleash at night, so that they each get some QT with me. If I am still sitting at the computer I have several noses at my elbow and a few deep woofs behind me. And they don’t stop till all the walk paraphernalia starts jingling.

he started launching his “muchroom cloud” adds…he’s really a jerk

and he doesn’t even “hear the voices” that bush hears, rudy’s 9/11 referances are a joke even among republicans and he seems to think it’s working for him even though he not only falls in the polls it looks like he’s deliberately climbing down the ladder

No Ron Paul on TV that I saw watching:

sports, news (mostly national), comedy, movies

Perhaps one on a local news show?

Hey Fern

Actually this poll does show the consistant climb of Edwards, but it all depends on how far back you look.

Not to pick nits, but I think the press in unintrerested in Edwards. Not disinterested. Indeed far from disinterested. I wish they were disinterested. they’d be reporting him more. but they’re either anti-him or are just dfollowing each other around in this two-person race thing.

also i haven’t read jerome but i’ve been saying that all morning. no matter what happens here, it ain’t over. talk to me after super tuesday. in the meantime, take hawaii and the points.

The wildly optimistic predictions of Obama’s margin could rebound on him if it turns out only to be 5-7 points. The Clintons might argue that an inflection point had been reached, that doubts about Obama might be beginning to surface.

I am living in NC & can tell you the local perception of Edwards is as an ambulance chaser.

When I was in college in the mid 90’s, my girlfriend and I were in an accident in which she was pretty badly injured. She recieved a lot of unsolicited mailings from lawyers offering to represent her. Almost all of these were 1-page letters or slick brochures. The one from John Edwards was a form letter and a videotape. This is what I call “ambulance-chasing.”

Regardless of the above, I believe Edwards represents what this country needs at this moment, and will be voting for him.

The Culinary Workers were supposed to go for Edwards. So if it is true, it is bad news for him.

Russert made the claim yesterday but there is no evidence to support that.
If you look on the Culinary Workers site and other sources of Nv political news, I think it’slike any political prediction. If he gets it right he’s looks good but no one will remember if he is wrong.

Not to pick nits, but I think the press in unintrerested in Edwards. Not disinterested. Indeed far from disinterested. I wish they were disinterested. they’d be reporting him more. but they’re either anti-him or are just dfollowing each other around in this two-person race thing.

I think the word isn’t “disinterested” or “uninterested”

the word is “scared shitless”

New Hampshire is very representative - of New Hampshire.

Re:

Yeah, I don’t get the Obama phenomenon. How does he get people so whipped up with such platitudes? But if his personality is so infectious, why aren’t I infected? Am I not human?

Change your pill color…

Morpheus: I imagine that right now you’re feeling a bit like Alice. Tumbling down the rabbit hole?
Neo: You could say that.
Morpheus: I can see it in your eyes. You have the look of a man who accepts what he sees because he’s expecting to wake up. Ironically, this is not far from the truth. Do you believe in fate, Neo?
Neo: No.
Morpheus: Why not?
Neo: ‘Cause I don’t like the idea that I’m not in control of my life.
Morpheus: I know exactly what you mean. Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know, you can’t explain. But you feel it. You felt it your entire life. That there’s something wrong with the world. You don’t know what it is, but it’s there. Like a splinter in your mind — driving you mad. It is this feeling that has brought you to me. Do you know what I’m talking about?
Neo: The Matrix?
Morpheus: Do you want to know what it is?
(Neo nods his head.)
Morpheus: The Matrix is everywhere, it is all around us. Even now, in this very room. You can see it when you look out your window, or when you turn on your television. You can feel it when you go to work, or when go to church or when you pay your taxes. It is the world that has been pulled over your eyes to blind you from the truth.
Neo: What truth?
Morpheus: That you are a slave, Neo. Like everyone else, you were born into bondage, born inside a prison that you cannot smell, taste, or touch. A prison for your mind. (long pause, sighs) Unfortunately, no one can be told what the Matrix is. You have to see it for yourself. This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back.
(In his left hand, Morpheus shows a blue pill.)
Morpheus: You take the blue pill and the story ends. You wake in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. (a red pill is shown in his other hand) You take the red pill and you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes. (Long pause; Neo begins to reach for the red pill) Remember — all I am offering is the truth, nothing more.
(Neo takes the red pill and swallows it with a glass of water)

thanks redX.

I’ve been suspicious of these huge fundraising drives that Paulites have been claiming. If he really had 20 million dollars, he’d be doing media buys in NH, it seems to me. (Or he is just using the primaries to fundraise for another 3rd party bid.) If he’s not buying in NH,then he doesn’t have the money.

Those are great signs. Great work.

What is the big deal about who goes first! Should we all vote at the same time and just vote for who the media says 90% of the time.

The problem is the media trying to make a story like its all over after one small state — it is not.

Real debates, reform, fairness on TV - these are the problems.

Just watch out what we wish for, a well done rotating regional primary could work with other reforms; something like a nation-wide primary on a single day would be the end of any candidate with less than 100 million (or with inflation that will be 10 billion by next cycle).

I guess I’ll elaborate even though everyone probably knows what I mean

“the base” of the republicans think they have the best chance against a women, especially a clinton women, or a black man

there isn’t a hell of a lot they are going to be able to galvanize against edwards but his polularist platforms

crap. Best pumpkin bread ever.
http://www.epicurious.com/recipes/food/views/840

oh, I beg to differ. We will remember. We are the institutional memory of politics these days. And we are the shovels digging through the horse puckey to make sure that memories don’t get plowed under.

So you’d prefer to have things such that only the candidates with the most money would be able to become the nominee? Because that is the result if California or NY or Florida lead the process. The money candidates inundate the states with TV ads and other media buys and the underfunded candidates get bupkus.

In all those components of NH, I mentioned, there are aspects of every other region of the country. Believe me in that some of the biggest red-necks I’ve ever known, I met in NH.

Maybe some of the other small states need to be rotated into the picture but I guarantee you that the folks in NH and Iowa take very seriously their roles in this process. They force the candidates to meet with them face-to-face and present themselves to humans rather than just the Beltway insiders and TV cameras. It is not a perfect system but most of the proposed alternatives are not any better.

The theme music for this whole thing SHOULD be “Won’t Get Fooled Again” by The Who - except its…not.

this is disgusting

Pentagon Inspector General Refuses To Probe KBR Rape Case…

The Bush administration has been anything but cooperative. Both the State and Justice departments refused to give Poe “answers on the status” of the investigation. The DoJ “refused to send a representative” to a Congressional hearing last month, and the State, Defense and Justice departments all missed Nelson’s deadline for answering questions.

Now, the Inspector General of the Department of Defense has written to Nelson and other lawmakers, saying that his agency will not investigate the allegations:

Well, soon I must start my calls as a volunteer to get Democrats out to the Nevada caucus. We are in countdown. So far I’ve had some interesting results. I can only stand making fifteen calls a day. I manage to talk with most people. My purpose is to get them out to be part of the process. People are very polite even after being bombarded with calls from the various campaigns. I guess I’m a refreshing change because I’m not pushing a candidate. The ones who are coming out to caucus are excited about being involved and voicing their preference.

Also good calls, but I think the regional factor is going to hurt Mitt. Everyone knows he is John Kerry (R), and Kerry lost.

I have been talking to my friend to try and convince him to vote for the best candidate (Dems is who is for) as he is wanting to vote R since he fears the country will elect Mitt due to his looks…

My young nieces are likely voting Obama, but I have asked that they take a look at Edwards as well.

she should have enough to get hert through super-T and if her campaign can focus the resources properly she could come out of it ok. In DEC. she was polling waaay ahead in NJ. Ny should be a big win. Still, I never thought we’d even be having a discussion about how Hillary can come back - or maybe even survive.

Ah, yes, more news from the “it sucks to be female” file.

This was in response to Perris’s comment about the KBR Rape Case.

Prediction Obama win early in Primary Season, Edwards gets nod as Vice President. The GOP will have a 2 or 3 man race and keep fighting to the end. And in the process they will keep spending what money they do have on the Primaries.
Their fundraising is a lot less than ours plus the longer the GOP Primaries go on the more money they will spend and the worse it will be for them in the General Election.
I think we are going to see then the first Presidential race in a long time where the Democratic Candidate has a 20% or more advantage in fundraising.
I am expecting the Corporate Wing of the GOP to panic. I expect them to say an Obama victory will make the economy worse. Obama should respond by pointing out thats what the Corporate Wing said about Bill.

more interesting stuff (as usual) over at think progress, check this out;

faux opinion is not only excluding ron paul from their debates, they are actually “redacting” ron pauls name from ap reports posted on their site…is that even legal?

tru

More about Hillary’s money crunch:

As we noted Monday, Hillary Clinton’s hopes of surviving the Barack Obama surge depend largely on her support in the Democratic Party establishment and her ability to ride out the wave until the big states vote at the end of this month and the beginning of the next.

But as the Wall Street Journal reports today, both of those bases for hope seem to be a little less sturdy than before. Without naming names, the Journal says that “several Senate colleagues” who have so far refrained from endorsing a candidate have now begun talks with Obama’s advisors. (Sen. Dick Durbin, already in the Obama camp, says some of his as-yet-unannounced colleagues are “poised and ready” to join him there.) And, the Journal says, Clinton now has “financial worries” as contributions “slacken.” Time is blunter, saying the Clinton campaign suffers from a “cash crunch,” having blown through more than half of the $50.5 million she had at the end of September with little to show for it yet. Although the Clinton campaign acknowledges that fundraising is always a high priority, spokesman Howard Wolfson tells Time that Clinton still has “considerable resources” at her disposal.

IF Obama wins by 10% or more, the Democratic nomination process is over.
This extremely early decision is not good for Obama, the Democratic party or the nation.

Edwards gets nod as Vice President.

He will never be VP on anybody’s ticket. Why should he? He’s been there, done that in 2004.

Florida = 0

Instead of a prediction, I’m going to make a pre-emptive complaint about the likely MSM coverage.

It looks very possible that McCain and Romney will end up quite close. I imagine a lot of importance is going to get attached to the last couple of thousand votes that separate them, because one of them “won”.

If this were the actual election for the actual predisency, then clearly those last few thousand votes matter. But NH is really a testing ground and foreshadower, not the real thing. A few thousand votes this way or that is really meaningless in determining long-term viability in a campaign.

On the other hand, the $-spent-per-vote metric will likely show a very clear winner, though I don’t know if that would be McCain or Paul.

you can tell it’s over for hill because bubba is losing his shit all over the place. he’s in full attach mode on many issues. the wheels are off. my sister saw him in minneapolis and said there was something really off about him.

If we were to reform the system, then changing New Hampshire’s and Iowa’s role in it would only be part of the solution. Public financing, media requirements to make air time available, and time limits on campaigning (as happens in many European countries) would eliminate the disadvantage that smaller candidacies have. But let’s be honest about this. Candidates like Edwards, Dodd, and Paul have struggled against coverage and money problems under the current system. As for the rest, there could be a rotating system of states reflecting the countries different regions and bundling a few small states together could be used to counterbalance the influence and importance of the larger states. This would preserve the one man one vote principle I believe is critical.

I agree with Jerome, but with today’s news I am not sure I am happy about it:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/.....ative.html

I think that’s why he hasn’t been attacking Obama a lot. He’s angling.

My question exactly. At what point are they interfering with the election. At what point do they “officially” stop being a “news” organization?

(as if they have ever actually been a news organization)

And I defintely agree with this:

In the Journal’s eyes, Clinton’s new best hope may be the “relative lull” between today’s New Hampshire primary and Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. “In that span,” the Journal says, “reporters will have more time for further examination of the Obama record in the U.S. Senate, and his eight years in the Illinois state senate.” As the Journal notes, reporters will be helped in that process by opposition research from the Clinton campaign and from attacks by the Republican Party as well.

(Same link as my 96.)

Gnome de Plume has it 100% right. The reason the Obama/Hillary 1st/3rd place story is the one getting the press is because “anti-corporatist shows strong 2nd place in Iowa” is NOT the story the media wants the world discussing.

A nice safe battle between the white female corporatist, the black corporatist, and the Republican corporatist is a corporatist win.

Stories of anti-corporatists being excluded from debates, or stories of anti-corporatists surging inthe polls, these stories don’t serve the corporations and won’t get covered.

I’d be happy to vote an Edwards/Obama or Obama/Edwards ticket… though I’d prefer Edwards/Obama…

faux opinion is not only excluding ron paul from their debates, they are actually “redacting” ron pauls name from ap reports posted on their site…is that even legal?

OMG. The Book of Laughter and Forgetting by Milan Kundera - just airbrush Ron Paul out and voila! he never existed. Except, somewhere there is a footprint. A recorded speech. A photo of Ron Paul with all the other Repug candidates. A supporter. A blog.

Stalin tried it and it just didn’t work.

IF Obama wins by 10% or more, the Democratic nomination process is over.
This extremely early decision is not good for Obama, the Democratic party or the nation.

you’re missing something big

whoever drops out, their supporters will almost definately go to the person not oboma since he knocked out their fav

We should have no fear of the R’s, I see no competition in 100 year war Mccain, Double Gitmo Mitt, Amen Huckster, wake me if I win Fred, retired to Fl Mr. 9/11 or Ron & the Paulettes.

There is just no way a republican will get elected.

I rather doubt Clinton is having money trouble
a rumor started Joe Trippi

and it fits the media’s narrative

On California the Clinton campaign is gearing up
I do not see any signs of financial fatigue.

When will the Democrats stand up to Bush? Was there ever was a better time or better issue on which to make a political stand?
Condi runs State haul her up to testify if she claims Executive Privilege Congress should go to the Supreme Court and dare them to provide cover for Bush on this.
The Supremes know that Generations of lawyers study Supreme Court cases. I don’t think even Scalia wants to be the author of something as bad as the Dred Scott decision.

Ah, yes. This is what I was wondering. who will drop out first? and where will their supporters go?

“He will never be VP on anybody’s ticket. Why should he? He’s been there, done that in 2004.”

Can’t agree. A VP spot in 2008 translates into the top spot in 2016. Edwards is no fool. He’d take VP again in a heartbeat.

Pentagon Inspector General Refuses To Probe KBR Rape Case…

The Bush administration has been anything but cooperative. Both the State and Justice departments refused to give Poe “answers on the status” of the investigation. The DoJ “refused to send a representative” to a Congressional hearing last month, and the State, Defense and Justice departments all missed Nelson’s deadline for answering questions.

Now, the Inspector General of the Department of Defense has written to Nelson and other lawmakers, saying that his agency will not investigate the allegations

In my scandals list, several of the entries involve Inspector Generals whose relationship with their agencies is way too cozy. The DOD Inspector General previously issued a report critical of Doug Feith but weaseled out of declaring that he had put together an alternate intelligence apparatus (which he had) because that would have been illegal.

I guess Bushco will use this election mania to do some nasty things in DC

Obama can’t boss Hilary around she would run the place. Richardson has the most experience but I don’t think he can draw in as many votes as Edwards.
Plus Edwards is a young man even after 8 years of Obama he could run for President as the front runner if he were Vice President.
Obama would be wise to pick someone young enough to continue his policies after he is gone.

Election 2008 - The Ultimate Bright Shiny Thing

Edwards is no fool. He’d take VP again in a heartbeat.

I’d be really surprised if he did that. 2016 is too far away in the US electoral climate these days…

I don’t think even Scalia wants to be the author of something as bad as the Dred Scott decision.

I would not be too sure about that. Yesterday in the Kentucky death penalty case, he was saying that nowhere does it say that executions can’t be painful. In fact, the idea that they are probably gives him a chubby.

Anyone have a link to early results?

Thanks for this video Robert and Jane!!

What a refreshing “change” from a Democrat. Standing up to bullies always pays off in the long run. Score big points for Obama.

We must bury Pox Newz. Perhaps the pendulum is picking up speed? ATTACCKKKK!!!!

a republican can win. it’s called election fraud. obama will also need to dodge his ties to a guy named rezko. this could be some of the 411 the clinton camp has on him. we shall see. http://www.chicagotribune.com/.....;cset=true

I guess Bushco will use this election mania to do some nasty things in DC

They already are from pushing the Intel version of the FISA bill to numerous attempts at regulation changes favoring big corporations.

And this:

A new Gallup poll out Monday confirms that even before what’s looking to be a big loss in New Hampshire, Clinton’s star is fading fast among Democrats nationwide. In December, Clinton led Obama 45 percent to 27 percent; now they’re tied at 33 percent, with John Edwards climbing up from 15 percent to 20 percent, a new high for him in Gallup’s national polling. What may be most telling about the poll is that the gap between Clinton and Obama has closed not so much because of his rise in popularity — he has picked up six percentage points — but because of her more dramatic 12-point fall. Democrats who planned to vote for Clinton because she was the most “inevitable” or “electable” — or because Obama was the opposite of either — may have found in Iowa’s results a permission slip to follow their hearts instead.

(Same link as my 96.)

CNN was talking about Change being the most important issue to Democratic voters but they never explained what we wanted Changed.
Edwards would be leading if the MSM ever discussed what Changes the voters want and which Candidates are where on the issues.

On California the Clinton campaign is gearing up
I do not see any signs of financial fatigue.

Oh yeah? Here’s how things look in CA, according to the LA Times:

“It’s going to be very difficult for her (Hillary Clinton) to win in New Hampshire,” admitted Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez. “We need to evaluate, look at those states where we’re strong, and that’s where we need to spend our time right now.” He suggested Clinton must “cut her losses” and focus only on states where she can still win. She could win in Nevada, he said, but maybe not South Carolina.

“Is everybody concerned and nervous?” asked a Los Angeles political consultant who represents a major Clinton donor. “Yes!” Several other Clinton backers told Morain they fully expect her to lose in New Hampshire today, perhaps by double-digits. They also anticipate a major shake-up of the campaign organization, possibly as early as Wednesday, and that the New York senator would pivot away from investing time in South Carolina.

While Clinton’s contributors may not be bolting to Barack Obama yet, a Californian who’s raised significant sums for the Illinois senator was already preparing a fundraising appeal aimed at wooing Clinton donors. As it happens, Obama has planned a major California fundraising trip next week, with stops in Los Angeles and the Bay Area. And that could turn into a victory lap after two early wins.

McCain would be a formidible opponent, I think. As for the rest - losers.

The media coverage in the States is abominable. They have selected who they want to see as the final candidates and the sheeple follow along. That Edwards among other candidates receive little if any coverage borders on criminal, yet a dumbed down electorate still believes in the fairy tale of American democracy. In Canada, maybe, but not in the U.S..

Brave New Films will have live coverage of the NH results later today.

True but a White Woman from a good home gets raped and the Government covers it up by hiding behind Executive Privilege? If Scalia wants to go down in history like that fine.
A ruling like that could give us the ammo we need to get him committed and off the Supreme Court.
Besides Condi is careful of her reputation she does not want to be on TV ducking questions on this issue, she will break or leak.

I would like to point out that Obama is in that same congress…and btw has voted the same as Hillary on all War issues, except when he doesn’t show up to vote which is %37 of the time.

An interesting analysis of the delegation strategy. There’s quite a bit more than “just voting”…

http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....lan_b.html

Edwards would be leading if the MSM ever discussed what Changes the voters want and which Candidates are where on the issues.

Yep.

Final prediction:

Bush has some backhanded plans for a econ stimulus package (tax cuts, band-aids, not talking down the econ) and tries to paint Dem congress as causing the crash he is causing.

Bush continues to pay Sunni militia 10 bucks a day to freeze the massive violence in Iraq to moderate violance.

Likely does not hold of the econ crash long enough, and unlikely that this gasp will work - but will allow history to be re-written over time and the bad financial times to have people not caring about the wars.

So the Dem prez gets an econ crash (just like all R prez raid the money before dumping on a dem), and a few wars dumped on them (that will only be able to escalate since we have to leave at some point).

Thanks, the children especially would like to thank you.

You’re probably right, but if he doesn’t win the primary, he’s pretty much out of politics for good. If he were offered VP slot, with a fair chance of winning, it would offer another chance at President, from a stronger postion. Still, you’re probably right.

The Clintons and the DLC Democratic establisment begin their campaign of dragging the Democratic Party over the cliff with them…gee who wudda thunk?
———————————————————–
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/.....80460.html

——————-
Three groups conducting independent expenditure campaigns in behalf of Clinton - Emily’s List, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) and the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) - have explored the possibility of trying to put together a multi-million dollar effort privately dubbed the Anybody-But-Obama 527 Committee, but they have run into problems finding any Democratic operative willing to become the director of a campaign against the man who now is the odds-on favorite to become the party’s nominee.

“You might make some good money in the short term, but your chances of getting any Democratic contracts in the future, especially if Obama wins, would be zilch,” said one operative. “I wouldn’t go there.” The effectiveness of a 527 that goes negative was demonstrated by the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, which attacked John Kerry’s war record in the 2004 campaign.

Re: Obama’s Veep pick.

A lot of people are saying Edwards would take a Veep slot if Obama gets the nod. I think you’re missing the obvious choice for Obama: Bloomberg. An Obama/Bloomberg ticket would pull big business over to the Democratic side. It would also insulate Obama from any “Hussein Osama” he’s-a-Muslim-sleeper-agent slips of the tongue, since he’d be campaigning next to the mayor of New York. It would stroke Bloomberg’s ego, and it would make Dean Broder happy. And it would eliminate Bloomberg as a third party candidate. That’s a lot of birds with a single stone.

Gee I thought she was dead and didn’t have a dime

so which is it.

I predict enough hot air will be put forth to keep the Ron Paul blimp in the air until election day.

I also don’t think Obama is gonna want another youngster with not much experience in Washington. If he really wants to push that thias “hope” thing is serious. Or have a “hope” / “change” fusion ticket he might pick Edwards. I look for him to get an older guy,either a senator with more experience or a gov. like Richardson (more likely, I think).

I don’t know, just posting info.
I am not a Hillary hater, I just see her destroying the Dems if she goes down.
I would love to see either Obama or edwards as pres!

HAHA!

Detailed breakdowns on pledged delegates and superdelegates and such:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20.....orecard/#D

I’m not sure I understand the ones already pledged for candidates in states that have not yet had elections or caucuses, but there you go.

Gee I thought she was dead and didn’t have a dime

Her campaign is running out money. But not those other groups that are not part of her campaign. When, the 527…

Very OT, but I just watched the first Daily Show since the beginning of the strike, and I must say, I love Jon Stewart. The entire show was spent on the strike, just as I suspected. I don’t see why the powers that be would want to give him and Steven Colbert a platform to pelt them from. I wouldn’t doubt but what he will continue to smack down the other side in favor of the writers for the duration. I knew you could count on them.

(One of his jokes was, this is not “The Daily Show;” it is “A Daily Show” and so it will remain until the writer strike is over!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/.....80460.html

Clinton Allies May Dump Millions Into Anti-Obama Group
So they can tarnish his name to save her.

Fox gosh. When is O’Reilly going to be arrested. Brawling and handcuffed to a bench in The Tombs. Oh wait isn’t The Tombs named after Bernie Kerik now?
The funny thing is Fox actually does Obama a service, because they make an essentially conservative politician, a preserver of the status quo, look like a rebel.
I predict edwards will win. Here’s for hoping.

That’s astute. Bloomberg is a good bet if he doesn’t throw his own hat in the ring as an indy later. He might be too establishment-owned to pull an indy stunt on his peeps (the corporatists). Veep is viable.

I think it’s just all damaging rumor at this point.

I do think people interested in having a a government strong enought to
repair the damage of Shrubco need to start looking harder at the Congressional races. If there is going to be this kind of turnout it is a good time to rid of the bush dogs on the Demside

Blue Texan upstairs!

Bush has some backhanded plans for a econ stimulus package (tax cuts, band-aids, not talking down the econ) and tries to paint Dem congress as causing the crash he is causing.

Typical Republican stand tall and blame others.

I wouldn’t believe anything I read about Clinton at Huffpo

they brought the Richardson obama vote swap rumor…alie

Reversing the tide of corporate power is the only issue that really matters. Otherwise, they will reduce us all to insect status by 2025.

Dems:

Obama: 43
Edwards: 25
Clinton: 24
Richardson: 7

An upset for 2nd place, what the hell. If I’m wrong, pretend I was drunk.

GOP:

Ditka 87
McCain 5
Paul 5
Romney 3

A lot of people are saying Edwards would take a Veep slot if Obama gets the nod. I think you’re missing the obvious choice for Obama

Somehow I don’t think that the electorate after rejecting 2 New Yorkers Hillary and Giuliani would opt for a third.

Just back from working the polls in Milford NH.

Steady stream of traffic from 7:00am to 1:00pm.

Predictions of record turnout in town.

A large number of new voters, large number of young voters.

Also, a steady stream of voters returning to their Independent(Undeclared) status.

I predict Obama by 8 points.

I also predict Ron Paul will show much stronger than the polling indicates.

-G

Hillary is not like that. I want the chickens to come home to roost for Obama and Hillary for their conservative Free Trade love, Kyl/Lieberman vote or non-vote,shameless fundraising, and lack of support for Dodd’s fight against telcom immunity. But I do give Hillary credit for a certain graciousness.

Bloomberg’s not going anywhere. They looked pathetic in the little “bi-partisan” summit. Obama’s totally stealing their thunder. Have you ever seen Bloomberg speak? He makes Harry Reid seem like Malcom X.

SeeSaw Romney is finding out how hard it is to buy the Presidency, and Mittmo even has good-looks, seemingly nice family, and can speak fairly well. Bloomers has none of these…just a billion or so, which he’d be throwing down the drain.

In my scandals list, several of the entries involve Inspector Generals whose relationship with their agencies is way too cozy. The DOD Inspector General previously issued a report critical of Doug Feith but weaseled out of declaring that he had put together an alternate intelligence apparatus (which he had) because that would have been illegal.

speaking of alternative inteligence agencies, cheney and rumsfeld are famous for it

bloomberg will run and thats where the republicans will flock. it will look alot like the lamont and joementum thing in connecticut.

Tell me about it. Do you know how many people I met who don’t know Edwards came in second in Iowa because of the coverage Obama v. Hillary?

It looks like Obama and McCain for New Hampshire. We Edwards fans are hoping for a Hillary comeback to stop the Obama momentum- but it doesn’t seem likely. If Obama runs off two big wins in a row, he will be hard to stop. I would give McCain a slight advantage in winning the nomination for the goopers- but that’s as thick as soup.

Good goddess, Obama has more in common with Slummy Joe than I could even imagine.

surprised? or did you know this?

Bill of the Clintons now accuses Obama of telling fairy tales. The Clinton brand is now in danger of being devalued and Bill’s speaking fees to big corporations as well. The Clintons will be reckless in their attempts top drag us all down with them. This is the day of reckoning.

i would like for Edwards to increase his percentage of the vote. if he does, he’ll have traction. if he doesn’t, i’m afraid he’s probably done. Hillary is toast no matter what she gets tonight. i really don’t know about any of this but i’m believin’ my own B.S. until the facts tell me different.

i would like for Edwards to increase his percentage of the vote. if he does, he’ll have traction. if he doesn’t, i’m afraid he’s probably done. Hillary is toast no matter what she gets tonight. i really don’t know about any of this but i’m believin’ my own B.S. until the facts tell me different.

I predicted “take Hawaii and the points.” But I hope so, too.

Louisiana Tech lost to Hawaii by only one point.

Surprised a little. Obama during the Lamont campaign, well . . .

Ah yes, the infamous Team B showing that neocons have a long history of getting it wrong.

None of the Above posts record total of votes. Al Gore gets majority of write in vote, 50% of total votes cast.

that make you happy?

Yeah just what progressives want. Obama/Bloom…ummm I will stay home since the same biz policies is not change and will be the ruin of us all. I though the whole point of the election was to change something, a bad econ and more of the same is not going to motivate so why go with a lame VP or lead ballon (if I’s leaning R and R’s are going to come out and vote for moderates why not just pull the lever for R’s again).

As for super delegates their pledge means nothing, they can change.

As for Edwards of course he would accept a VP nod from Obama. That is a pretty high position in govt if I am not mistaken where he could work to achieve the goals he has laid out.

As for Scalia and all them they will do whatever they want/need to do. He aint going to be missing any $ or cocktail parties over more evil decisions.

Gonna be funny watching all these people talking Edwards language over the next few weeks as people lose their jobs and peek their 401k if they have one.

I’m the CTO at a social media analysis firm. We’ve started putting together predictive models based on blog and news postings leading up to the primary and are posting the results here. Blogs seem to be a better predictor of outcome than news sources.

http://www.collectiveintellect.....e_iowa.php

Interesting that Edwards showing weaker than

Let us know what you think!

just put it in simple percentages please

Obama
Edwards
Clinton

McCain
Paul
Huckabee
Romney

Democrats:
1. Edwards
2. Obama
3. Richardson
4. Clinton

Republicans:
1. None of the Above
2. I couldn’t imagine checking the box for any of them

NH Predictions

Dems

Obama 40
Clinton 29
Edwards 26
Richardson 4.5
Kucinich .4
Gravel .1

Pugs

McCain 34
Romney 28
Huckabee 14
Paul 10
Giuliani 8
Thompson 2

BustedKnuckles:

Surprisingly, Edwards doesn’t seem to do all that well in the South. The fact that he is still in there swinging away without hardly any media attention says good things to me, that he has a solid base who have already made up their mind.

Edwards has been picking up in the polls lately. It’s not so much that he has a solid base, as that he’s the default choice for voters who don’t like Hillary (for whatever reason), and think Obama isn’t specific about what he’ll do in office or how he’ll achieve it.

That’s not to belittle Edwards’ achievements in the race; I like him and may vote for him in the primary because he sounds like the candidate who will fight hardest for the middle-class and the poor. But that’s where most of his base (15-18% of the Dems) is coming from already. Most of the increase above that base is due to the dynamic outlined above.

Senator Clinton–realizing after NH she’s not the rock star–Obama is.

I predicted a week ago–she’s going to be knocked down after NH and she won’t get back up.

Hillary Clinton has run a campaign that is elitist–she took no questions from the public and she took no questions from the press, and she carefully controlled any appearances on TV.

Now that she’s been knocked down and can’t figure out how to get back up, she’s taking questions and talking to the press.

She’s learning how to conduct herself throughout the remainder of her Senate term.

Actually this poll does show the consistant climb of Edwards, but it all depends on how far back you look.

These polls show Edwards losing ground (along with Richardson) from mid summer to about Labor Day. Why? What happened through there?

Then Edwards makes up a lot of ground very quickly in December. Why? Did he change something or was it just that people began to pay attention around then?

Somehow it seems the connection of people to a candidate doesn’t seem to be directly tied to political arguments or details. It seems more related to how well the public knows them (their name, appearance, their family, etc.) and whether they’re getting talked up by the press. Edwards has definitely suffered from not being mentioned by the press. But, he got on the tube a fair amount, so maybe the public liked his looks.

How can any of our candidates gain ground on these bases?

Obama is getting great video and talking head coverage, so he’s rising. Hillary has gone through some major downs and ups and downs and ups. She wasn’t always getting video, but then the public already knew her. She started from a high point in terms of name recognition and familiarity. She has to do well to get the talking heads to approve. Sad isn’t it. The public seems to place some trust in what the t.v. nuts say.

Edwards will never get the talking heads unless he makes a flub and then they’ll be all over him to destroy him like vultures. He has to be perfect and win over people in person, with no intervening filter. That makes the race much more costly and time consuming and tiring. That’s why Iowans came around to him and NH didn’t. He spent gobs of time in Iowa, but not as much in NH, where they had to depend on the press ‘interpretation’ of Edwards.

This is going to be very difficult for Edwards and it’s getting tougher for Hillary and it will take a major event to really short-circuit Obama’s connection to people.

I’ve seen some NH results and Obama seems to have stubbed his toes a bit. Hillary has come back into the game. Maybe the almost-crying helped her with people. Naturally, Edwards is out of the picture.

On to South Carolina where they already know Edwards pretty well. Let’s see how well Obama plays there and whether Edwards can win one for the gipper.

That wasn’t very nice Hugh. I’m tempted to suggest what you could do to the New Hampshire “sore”, like suck it….

I hate to set this tone in what is only my second post here, but I just got through ‘replying’ to a fellow “blogsNH” blogger’s (Bill Bunker) post on the Concord Monitor Online web site, and I’m fired up!

BTW, I could use some supporters backing me up in the comments section there and also challenging his frequent ‘anti-progressive’ posts.

There aren’t nearly enough intelligent people challenging his warped logic, and since I just started writing a blog (computer-related) of my own there recently, I don’t think it’s appropriate for me to comment (like I’m tempted to).

I keep hoping people associated with the Democratic candidates he negatively opines about (like Hillary Clinton) will stand up and refute his warped (BS) rhetoric (in a major NH newspaper), but to date they’ve sat on their hands.

If intelligent people don’t stand up and challenge nuts like Bill Bunker, ignorant undecided voters are more apt to buy into his crap (for lack of a better word).

I’m actually having second thoughts about continuing my blog there because of this kook. The other day he was going on about global warming (in a post challenging the paper’s endorsement of Clinton):
“The Monitor assumes that global warming is a settled science in their endorsement. It is not and last week 400 meteorologists and climatologists reinforced that. It is no surprise that it was not front page news in the Monitor.”

I purposely chose not to have an ‘opposing’ blog because this nut just doesn’t accept reason. He’s an interminable blogger who thinks he’s “fair and balanced”, and needs to be set straight by folks other than me. Besides, I’d have to double my therapy sessions just to maintain my [semi]-sanity if I engaged him regularly!

Anyone here up to the challenge? I have a lot of respect for the people here at FDL, and I hope that one (or more) of you will accept it.