(I'll be on the Young Turks discussing the New Hampshire primary at 8:20 pm ET/5:20 pm PT -- jh)
Whazzup, New Hampshire?
Reports indicate that turnout in New Hampshire is way up this morning, the weather is good. Which seems to bode well for Obama, who benefitted (I guess you could say that's an understatement) from high turnout in Iowa.
Will it be a drubbing? Markos thinks so. But Jerome says the race is far from over.
The Clinton campaign flailed wildly yesterday, trying to find some traction. They may have staunched the bleeding a bit with pushback against the misogynistic reaction to Hillary crying, which seemed to dominate the news cycle. And New Hampshire does have a special fondness for the Clintons, but whether their affection for the "comeback kid" will accrue to Hillary is unknown.
The fact that the culinary workers in Nevada are going to go for Obama (as Tim Russert reported this morning) is bad news for Clinton. She needed Nevada and probably won't take it now, and South Carolina is sure to be a rout.
Meanwhile, Edwards is the only candidate who has been consistently climbing in the national polls since before the Iowa caucuses. As FlaDem points out, Obama's bounce is predictable for anyone who won Iowa -- while the Edwards rise seems to be the result of more people hearing his message and liking it. (Although having seen Obamamania up close and personal in Iowa, I don't think that accounts for all of it.)
But will the press cover the Edwards surge? Doubtful. They seem quite uninterested in him.
So give it a go, let us have your predictions. There's no way you could possibly be as wrong as Mark Penn.
(video by BraveNewFilms, "FoAttacks Obama Staffer")
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Zed
Hiya Jane!
How’s your cold today?
Most polls show that Obama’s lead is down–from 13 points yesterday to 5 points this morning.
I predict that New Hampshire will remain in the Northeast possibly close to the Canadian border. Politically, I predict it will continue to be an unrepresentative sore on the backside of American politics.
That’s an awfully big jump in a short time. If it was just one or two polls, it would lead me to question the polling. but it it’s a bunch of them… Hmm.
Record turnout. Which is all that really matters to me.
High turnout is a restatement of the 2006 results.
We didn’t get what we wanted then. There was a good chance people would say “aw, screw it.” and go back to the mall.
But if they are gonna turn out, then they are making a statement for a new, progressive direction.
Al Wynn’s sweating.
Everyone should read FlaDem, shorter version, give the voters a chance to speak.
Wahoo!…
How Edwards doing?….
And this from the Gray Lady:
Jane, I have some advice for Hillary, dump Mark Penn & don a pencil skirt & v-neck cable knit sweater.
The media and their corporate owners are scared shitless by the Edwards message. Hillary is safe because she is owned by the older generation of corporatists and Obama is safe because he is owned by the younger generation of the same corporatists. Edwards is scary because he wants to undo all the corporate consolidation of power that has been happening for the last 25 or so years.
I’m liking the Edwards Escalation.
Hillary is flopping around like a fish out of water which seems totally out of character for her.
Obama has the momentum going right now but it is still early, the big states haven’t come into play yet.
Surprisingly, Edwards doesn’t seem to do all that well in the South.
The fact that he is still in there swinging away without hardly any media attention says good things to me, that he has a solid base who have already made up their mind.
That is a great YouTube! Bravenewfilms did a great job on that one!
No matter whoever wins in NH the race is far from over except for the Repubilcans who might as well just stay home the rest of the year.
I look forward to the comparison of the Dem and GOP primary numbers, I predict that the number of voters participating in the Dem primary will dwarf that of the GOP.
Jane,
I was going to make myself a sandwich, but after the stench from the Faux folks, my appetite is down a bit, now. I predict I will eventually eat lunch.
All I can envision is Katherine Hepburn - is that what you see?
After lunch it is back to the polls for me holding an Edwards sign. Polling is very heavy from what I can see with Inds going heavily for Dems. For whom? I don’t know but traffic for Obama is high. Not so many Inds going for the goopers from what I see.
My prediction is that big business will win again as they did in Iowa but clinton 2, even if she come in second, will not do so well as she/MSM have worked for. The poor, disenfranchised, uninsured, poorly treated workers and progressives will come in third but Edwards will continue encouraged by a good strong result.
Well, if a big state like Nevada goes to Obama, a middling state like California should just cancel its primary. Could anyone have devised a stupider way of selecting a Presidential candidate? Even rock paper scissors looks fairer and more sophisticated than this.
i’m not a Hillary fan (too much of an old-fashioned moderate Republican for me) but i wouldn’t be surprised if she regained lead. I think the “weather” is too unstable to make long-term projections.
I love looking at the graphic with the trends of all candidates. Some go up and down, Edwards is just a steady climb.
“Surprisingly, Edwards doesn’t seem to do all that well in the South.”
No surprise. The majority of voters in Dem primaries in the South are black.
Obama will win, but it will be tight. McCain will win, but it will also be tight. McCain had been leading Romney in the polls by about 4-5 points, but this morning they’re running neck and neck. McCain will pull ahead,’coz Romney’s unlikability factor will eventually work against him.
Hmmm. I think it’s going to be Obama-Edwards-Clinton again for Dems.
I’m far more interested in the Republican side. Romney seems to be polling even with McCain, which doesn’t make much sense to me. At least two major newspapers have pointed out that Emperor Romney has no clothes on, and it doesn’t seem to be hurting him in the polls. I’m not really sure how it’s going to go. I think that the undecideds are going to break heavily for the Dems, which is bad news for McCain. Any independent who heard his 100-years-in-Iraq comment is going to run screaming from the Republican party. I also think that Ron Paul is going to do much better than he’s been polling, because his voters are the kind of people who hang up on telephone pollers. With all that said, I still can’t figure out who’s going to bother voting in the Republican primary. My wildass guess for the results would be: McCain-Romney-Paul-Huckabee.
Who knows? A lot of women may be pretty mad at the arrogant female bashing. Personally, I’m really tired seeing Hillary be the punching bag for a lot of hateful people. Go for the issues, not personal attack. When people make sexist attacks, they self-reveal. Issues. Issues. Issues. Position. Position. Position.
Would you mind linking to one of those?
Seconded.
I am still pulling for JRE.
Happy New Year Everyone:
http://www.freewayblogger.com/season3.htm
peace on earth.
All I have been hearing is Obama McCain Obama McCain. . . . kind of like it is supposed to be a foregone conclusion.
’splain please
Will Alan Keyes fare well there then?
Better, thanks.
Kobe made me take him to the Starbucks this morning by saying pumpkin loaf is the best thing for a cold.
I think it’s working.
Anyone know when results from today’s primary will start to come out?
I predict I voted for Edwards.
Obama and McCain will win easily.
Edwards could come in 2nd but unlikely as he was ignored and Clinton had a good lead and lost most to Obama rather than going to Edwards.
Mitt can probably hang on for 2nd.
Ron Paul places above Rudy or close. Fred lower than in Iowa.
1. Obama
2. Clinton (down by 9 - 12)
3. Edwards :(
4. don’t care but will be Richarson, I think Edwards comes in 10 pts ahead of this
1. McCain
2. Romney (down 9)
3. Huck (~ 15%)
4. Rudy/Ron Paul (10 - 14 % total range)
5. Fred
Got some things to do, will check back later at the lake…
Best of Luck pups!…
I predict: no matter who wins, it will be good for the Republicans.
Except that Obama’s “attaction” seems to be this “message of hope” - that is not a position, that’s a belief structure. I’m just furious about the whole thing - he’s been waving his “aura” around and everyone has been falling for it. Where’s the beef, Barak?
Hugh, I have to disagree with you a bit. New Hampshire is not representative of the US racially but it is very representative of the US politically. It has just about every political faction you can have. There is agriculture, rural vs urban, transplants vs old timers, old union and manufacturing, high tech and new industries, and the old fashioned conservative vs liberal. It even has various flavors of immigrants from various cultures being assimilated with varying degrees of difficulty.
You may not like New Hampshire and obviously feel that they are unworthy of their place in the political selection process, but please recognize that they do not necessarily march to the inside beltway VSP drumbeat. If you want to blame a group for the out size influence of New Hampshire, you can blame the other states who all rushed to push their primaries and caucuses ahead as that has done is magnify the impact of NH (and Iowa).
Obviously YMMV
I predict that all the losing candidates will start crying on national teevee because they think it’ll win them votes.
I, of course, blame Clinton.
Agreed. Money could be a real problem for her going forward.
It’s not an escalation. It’s a surge.
Romney was, of course, Governor of Massachusetts, so there is a regional factor involved. The immigration issue may also play a role. But when you are dealing with a group all of whom are batshit crazy, it is difficult to figure out how or why one candidate would be preferred over another.
I don’t dare tell my guys about pumpkin loaf. I can’t afford to buy for four.
Yep, shoulder pads & all. I am supporting Edwards, but I truly believe Hillary is the smartest person in the race. Even with all her faults, I would be proud if she were our President.
Is Edwards “surging”? Is he “climbing”? Or rather is he, as Rochard Wolffe put it on last night’s CountDown, “creeping up in the polls”? Framing is everything.
Re:
Shortly after 8 PM EST
Shortly after 1 AM GMT
I think Romney might be a bit closer to McCain, and that the evangelicals mobilize for Huck, so maybe a tighter cluster at the top of the Republican side.
But I think those Ron Paul people are PISSED about Fox and Paul may drub Rudy.
Wishful thinking? Maybe, but here goes:
36 / 28 / 28 / 7 / 1
Obama / Clinton / Edwards / Richardson / Kucinich
29 / 27 / 18 / 12 / 12 / 2
McCain / Romney / Huckabee / Guiliani / Paul / Thompson
I am living in NC & can tell you the local perception of Edwards is as an ambulance chaser.
My three actually split it with me, so that’s four.
But you can never have too much pumpkin loaf, or so I’m told. Every morning. About 11 am.
And if I make the mistake of taking Kobe earlier, it doesn’t matter. Around 11 am he turns into a huge pest.
Rudy needs to buy some Butter futures, he’s toast.
“Blessed are the cheesemakers”
For convention if the losers do not bow out then Edwards throws his support to Obama unless Obama has been weakened in the General election for some reason or the Econ tanks as is likely he may win.
Richardson tries to hang on to have some delegates to throw to Clinton.
If Rs go to convention then whoever controls that silly party decides who the MAN is.
Yeah, I don’t get the Obama phenomenon. How does he get people so whipped up with such platitudes? But if his personality is so infectious, why aren’t I infected? Am I not human?
Sounds like my frieds work places…”perception”.
Wonder where the perception came from in a Red state.
Oh Talented Ones of FDL, this should be fun! Write a caption for an impeachment cartoon!Impeach Bush/Cheney contest!
And today’s Froomkin post
I believe a big part of Hillary’s problem is that in focusing on her overall experience she’s failing to notice that part of that experience is her association with the 110th Congress — probably the worst Democratic-led Congress in history — as they enabled and supported and protected from impeachment the worst president and VP in history, and kept the war in Iraq going full speed as well.
Also the press is not dis-interested in him. The order is out to make sure he does not win as that would really put a boil on the “well-borns” ass - especially with the recession crash coming.
Toby - I feel like I’m in the middle of a Hollywood drama in which I’m looking and listening to the behind-the-scenes drama and it ain’t pretty. Yep. Duped, again. Elmer Gantry rules the primaries.
< in Edwards</p>
I have alwasys said the first few primaries are who makes movement not who wins, it’s who moves up in the polls, who makes a surprising performance
the media is flat out scared shitless of edwards, they refuse to even achnowledge he exists
even air america is totally ignoring him
movement is all that really matters, if hillary can do better here then ohio that’s a good thing, if she does worse I don’t know how many more she can keep competing
on the other hand she still leads in the polls in most of the primaries so it is still hers to loose no matter how oboma or edwards do
Does anyone know whether Ron Paul has done any NH media buys?
The graphic I was thinking of I believe I saw on TPM. Now I am serching Pollster, which seems to be the place Josh gets his poll graphics, and they are not really affirming my memory.
Now I’m kinda bummed. Must what I WANTED to remember…
Well, I disagree with your disagreement. I do not see that New Hampshire reflects the South, the West, the West Coast, or the Midwest. Even if it was representative of its own region, how much more representative would states like New York or Pennsylvania be. Giving penny ante states such power is a debasement of the principle of one man one vote. Why should the votes of a relatively small number of New Englanders or Iowans be worth so much more than mine?
Thanks. So 7ish here.
Yeah, its not like the had their 2 congressional districts flip in 2006 (or against Bush in 2004 flipping Red to Blue). To bad the cheap wine took so long to wear off.
Best pumpkin bread ever.
That sounds like my crew, except it happens when the sun goes down. I have started to take them out for individual walks offleash at night, so that they each get some QT with me. If I am still sitting at the computer I have several noses at my elbow and a few deep woofs behind me. And they don’t stop till all the walk paraphernalia starts jingling.
he started launching his “muchroom cloud” adds…he’s really a jerk
and he doesn’t even “hear the voices” that bush hears, rudy’s 9/11 referances are a joke even among republicans and he seems to think it’s working for him even though he not only falls in the polls it looks like he’s deliberately climbing down the ladder
No Ron Paul on TV that I saw watching:
sports, news (mostly national), comedy, movies
Perhaps one on a local news show?
Hey Fern
Actually this poll does show the consistant climb of Edwards, but it all depends on how far back you look.
Not to pick nits, but I think the press in unintrerested in Edwards. Not disinterested. Indeed far from disinterested. I wish they were disinterested. they’d be reporting him more. but they’re either anti-him or are just dfollowing each other around in this two-person race thing.
also i haven’t read jerome but i’ve been saying that all morning. no matter what happens here, it ain’t over. talk to me after super tuesday. in the meantime, take hawaii and the points.
The wildly optimistic predictions of Obama’s margin could rebound on him if it turns out only to be 5-7 points. The Clintons might argue that an inflection point had been reached, that doubts about Obama might be beginning to surface.
When I was in college in the mid 90’s, my girlfriend and I were in an accident in which she was pretty badly injured. She recieved a lot of unsolicited mailings from lawyers offering to represent her. Almost all of these were 1-page letters or slick brochures. The one from John Edwards was a form letter and a videotape. This is what I call “ambulance-chasing.”
Regardless of the above, I believe Edwards represents what this country needs at this moment, and will be voting for him.
The Culinary Workers were supposed to go for Edwards. So if it is true, it is bad news for him.
Russert made the claim yesterday but there is no evidence to support that.
If you look on the Culinary Workers site and other sources of Nv political news, I think it’slike any political prediction. If he gets it right he’s looks good but no one will remember if he is wrong.
I think the word isn’t “disinterested” or “uninterested”
the word is “scared shitless”
New Hampshire is very representative - of New Hampshire.
Re:
Change your pill color…
Morpheus: I imagine that right now you’re feeling a bit like Alice. Tumbling down the rabbit hole?
Neo: You could say that.
Morpheus: I can see it in your eyes. You have the look of a man who accepts what he sees because he’s expecting to wake up. Ironically, this is not far from the truth. Do you believe in fate, Neo?
Neo: No.
Morpheus: Why not?
Neo: ‘Cause I don’t like the idea that I’m not in control of my life.
Morpheus: I know exactly what you mean. Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know, you can’t explain. But you feel it. You felt it your entire life. That there’s something wrong with the world. You don’t know what it is, but it’s there. Like a splinter in your mind — driving you mad. It is this feeling that has brought you to me. Do you know what I’m talking about?
Neo: The Matrix?
Morpheus: Do you want to know what it is?
(Neo nods his head.)
Morpheus: The Matrix is everywhere, it is all around us. Even now, in this very room. You can see it when you look out your window, or when you turn on your television. You can feel it when you go to work, or when go to church or when you pay your taxes. It is the world that has been pulled over your eyes to blind you from the truth.
Neo: What truth?
Morpheus: That you are a slave, Neo. Like everyone else, you were born into bondage, born inside a prison that you cannot smell, taste, or touch. A prison for your mind. (long pause, sighs) Unfortunately, no one can be told what the Matrix is. You have to see it for yourself. This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back.
(In his left hand, Morpheus shows a blue pill.)
Morpheus: You take the blue pill and the story ends. You wake in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. (a red pill is shown in his other hand) You take the red pill and you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes. (Long pause; Neo begins to reach for the red pill) Remember — all I am offering is the truth, nothing more.
(Neo takes the red pill and swallows it with a glass of water)
thanks redX.
I’ve been suspicious of these huge fundraising drives that Paulites have been claiming. If he really had 20 million dollars, he’d be doing media buys in NH, it seems to me. (Or he is just using the primaries to fundraise for another 3rd party bid.) If he’s not buying in NH,then he doesn’t have the money.
Those are great signs. Great work.
What is the big deal about who goes first! Should we all vote at the same time and just vote for who the media says 90% of the time.
The problem is the media trying to make a story like its all over after one small state — it is not.
Real debates, reform, fairness on TV - these are the problems.
Just watch out what we wish for, a well done rotating regional primary could work with other reforms; something like a nation-wide primary on a single day would be the end of any candidate with less than 100 million (or with inflation that will be 10 billion by next cycle).
I guess I’ll elaborate even though everyone probably knows what I mean
“the base” of the republicans think they have the best chance against a women, especially a clinton women, or a black man
there isn’t a hell of a lot they are going to be able to galvanize against edwards but his polularist platforms
crap. Best pumpkin bread ever.
http://www.epicurious.com/recipes/food/views/840
oh, I beg to differ. We will remember. We are the institutional memory of politics these days. And we are the shovels digging through the horse puckey to make sure that memories don’t get plowed under.
So you’d prefer to have things such that only the candidates with the most money would be able to become the nominee? Because that is the result if California or NY or Florida lead the process. The money candidates inundate the states with TV ads and other media buys and the underfunded candidates get bupkus.
In all those components of NH, I mentioned, there are aspects of every other region of the country. Believe me in that some of the biggest red-necks I’ve ever known, I met in NH.
Maybe some of the other small states need to be rotated into the picture but I guarantee you that the folks in NH and Iowa take very seriously their roles in this process. They force the candidates to meet with them face-to-face and present themselves to humans rather than just the Beltway insiders and TV cameras. It is not a perfect system but most of the proposed alternatives are not any better.
The theme music for this whole thing SHOULD be “Won’t Get Fooled Again” by The Who - except its…not.
this is disgusting
Well, soon I must start my calls as a volunteer to get Democrats out to the Nevada caucus. We are in countdown. So far I’ve had some interesting results. I can only stand making fifteen calls a day. I manage to talk with most people. My purpose is to get them out to be part of the process. People are very polite even after being bombarded with calls from the various campaigns. I guess I’m a refreshing change because I’m not pushing a candidate. The ones who are coming out to caucus are excited about being involved and voicing their preference.
Also good calls, but I think the regional factor is going to hurt Mitt. Everyone knows he is John Kerry (R), and Kerry lost.
I have been talking to my friend to try and convince him to vote for the best candidate (Dems is who is for) as he is wanting to vote R since he fears the country will elect Mitt due to his looks…
My young nieces are likely voting Obama, but I have asked that they take a look at Edwards as well.
she should have enough to get hert through super-T and if her campaign can focus the resources properly she could come out of it ok. In DEC. she was polling waaay ahead in NJ. Ny should be a big win. Still, I never thought we’d even be having a discussion about how Hillary can come back - or maybe even survive.
Ah, yes, more news from the “it sucks to be female” file.
This was in response to Perris’s comment about the KBR Rape Case.
Prediction Obama win early in Primary Season, Edwards gets nod as Vice President. The GOP will have a 2 or 3 man race and keep fighting to the end. And in the process they will keep spending what money they do have on the Primaries.
Their fundraising is a lot less than ours plus the longer the GOP Primaries go on the more money they will spend and the worse it will be for them in the General Election.
I think we are going to see then the first Presidential race in a long time where the Democratic Candidate has a 20% or more advantage in fundraising.
I am expecting the Corporate Wing of the GOP to panic. I expect them to say an Obama victory will make the economy worse. Obama should respond by pointing out thats what the Corporate Wing said about Bill.
more interesting stuff (as usual) over at think progress, check this out;
faux opinion is not only excluding ron paul from their debates, they are actually “redacting” ron pauls name from ap reports posted on their site…is that even legal?
tru
More about Hillary’s money crunch:
IF Obama wins by 10% or more, the Democratic nomination process is over.
This extremely early decision is not good for Obama, the Democratic party or the nation.
He will never be VP on anybody’s ticket. Why should he? He’s been there, done that in 2004.
Florida = 0
Instead of a prediction, I’m going to make a pre-emptive complaint about the likely MSM coverage.
It looks very possible that McCain and Romney will end up quite close. I imagine a lot of importance is going to get attached to the last couple of thousand votes that separate them, because one of them “won”.
If this were the actual election for the actual predisency, then clearly those last few thousand votes matter. But NH is really a testing ground and foreshadower, not the real thing. A few thousand votes this way or that is really meaningless in determining long-term viability in a campaign.
On the other hand, the $-spent-per-vote metric will likely show a very clear winner, though I don’t know if that would be McCain or Paul.
you can tell it’s over for hill because bubba is losing his shit all over the place. he’s in full attach mode on many issues. the wheels are off. my sister saw him in minneapolis and said there was something really off about him.
If we were to reform the system, then changing New Hampshire’s and Iowa’s role in it would only be part of the solution. Public financing, media requirements to make air time available, and time limits on campaigning (as happens in many European countries) would eliminate the disadvantage that smaller candidacies have. But let’s be honest about this. Candidates like Edwards, Dodd, and Paul have struggled against coverage and money problems under the current system. As for the rest, there could be a rotating system of states reflecting the countries different regions and bundling a few small states together could be used to counterbalance the influence and importance of the larger states. This would preserve the one man one vote principle I believe is critical.
I agree with Jerome, but with today’s news I am not sure I am happy about it:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/.....ative.html
I think that’s why he hasn’t been attacking Obama a lot. He’s angling.
My question exactly. At what point are they interfering with the election. At what point do they “officially” stop being a “news” organization?
(as if they have ever actually been a news organization)
And I defintely agree with this:
(Same link as my 96.)
Gnome de Plume has it 100% right. The reason the Obama/Hillary 1st/3rd place story is the one getting the press is because “anti-corporatist shows strong 2nd place in Iowa” is NOT the story the media wants the world discussing.
A nice safe battle between the white female corporatist, the black corporatist, and the Republican corporatist is a corporatist win.
Stories of anti-corporatists being excluded from debates, or stories of anti-corporatists surging inthe polls, these stories don’t serve the corporations and won’t get covered.
I’d be happy to vote an Edwards/Obama or Obama/Edwards ticket… though I’d prefer Edwards/Obama…
OMG. The Book of Laughter and Forgetting by Milan Kundera - just airbrush Ron Paul out and voila! he never existed. Except, somewhere there is a footprint. A recorded speech. A photo of Ron Paul with all the other Repug candidates. A supporter. A blog.
Stalin tried it and it just didn’t work.