Why were all the New Hampshire polls so utterly wrong? How did Clinton overcome such a huge deficit in the polls in one day?
Chris Bowers speculates:
This almost never happens. Here are some possible reasons:
- A last minute swing toward Clinton, as mentioned above.
- Clinton had a superior, momentum-proof, absentee voting program.
- Bad poll weighting. I wonder if pollsters were weighing down samples of women and Democrats in their surveys, both of which saw increased from 2004.
- Return of the lying white voter?
It is probably a combination of reasons.
In Iowa, exit polling said that women comprised 57% of Democratic voters, and went 30% for Clinton, 35% Obama, 23% Edwards. In New Hampshire they were likewise 57% of the vote, but it fell 47% for Clinton, 34% for Obama, 14% for Edwards.
Voters who said they made up their mind either today or in the past 3 days — 38%.
There could be many explanations for this, but Obama held his women voters — Clinton took them from Edwards. Did his pivot against her during the last debate and his comments yesterday contribute to what happened?
Discuss.
Update: MSNBC reporting that the Nevada Culinary Workers, who Russert said were absolutely going to endorse Obama, are now being encouraged by the national to hold off. Looks like Nevada is not a done deal after all.




263 Comments





Support this site!
Subscribe to the newsletter
Advertise on Firedoglake
Send
us your tips
Make us your homepage
About Firedoglake
Jane!
Hillary Clinton!!!
(I’m an Edwards supporter, but still…)
Hello, I must be going.
Night all.
Hey, i’m a foul mouthed blog commenter for Edwards!
Yay! Gene Robinson brings up the Bradley Effect!
g’nite jayt
that’s ok, I like the stick in MSM’s eye remark by punaise down below. we get it.
I would dearly love to see the internal polls that the campaigns had.
As to the public polls, all of the above sounds about right.
Or as I’ve been known to say, if I don’t know, choose ‘em all.
I just find it hysterical that everyone had it all wrong… MSM, pollsters and the talking heads…
I respect Hillary Clinton (see # 2 above) and I empathized with her moment of candor last night, but I did not find Edwards’ comments that offensive. I find it hard to believe that very many people switched from Edwards to Clinton on the basis of that alone.
Yes — and it was on-purpose by Edwards to keep the race in play.
I’m not sure that applies if Hillary took her votes from Edwards…
Edwards and Huckabee are scheduled for Larry King in 15 minutes … also Mark Penn I think.
One speculation over at Mystery Pollster was that the anti-Clinton independents, thinking Obama had her beaten, went over to the GOP side to vote for McCain.
If so, that’s a bit of a miscalcuation on their parts.
I’m an Edwards supporter, but I love this process anyhow. D winners of Iowa & NH are black & woman. Boo Hah. And it’s still a contest. A lot of disappointment for what I think is the appropriate course, but a lot to celebrate.
EPU’ed on topic:
Per MSNBS:
I do not think people not wanting to vote for an African American in there. Obama got lots of votes. I do agree that women coming out for Clinton was good. Also that there are less than 5% African American, who could have come out for a 1 – 2.5% edge for Obama with decent starting numbers.
I have not seen the exit poll data so 1 – 5 % with up to 2.5 going to Clinton/Edwards is how I swiped at that number.
Also Clinton really took the North country in NH, so it could be as there are many areas where people not voting for an African American could apply. I do not think massive amounts of people would lie about there vote to hide racism (there are tons of candidates to vote for anway).
I received an email today with a diatribe against John Edwards vis-a-vis his treatment of Hillary Clinton, a Katha Pollit piece about his reaction to her ‘verklempt’ moment. It had been forwarded to 60 other powerful women in a group interested in Title IX issues.
As a woman I experienced the Ginger Rogers double standard many times. I’m sure a lot of women like me were put off by all the anti-Hillary crap. I saw it as coming more from the media than the other candidates, but that email I received told me others didn’t see it that way.
Here’s the email I received:
Russert says Obama needs to find his voice now.
Whose voice has he been using?
Hmmm . . . wouldn’t mind hearing Edwards or even Huckabee, but having to put up with Mark Penn is a pretty steep price.
I so agree.
Per:
One speculation over at Mystery Pollster was that the anti-Clinton independents, thinking Obama had her beaten, went over to the GOP side to vote for McCain.
If so, that’s a bit of a miscalcuation on their parts.
—
Buddy was going to do this but voted for Obama so this is possible, it is also possible that R’s crossed to vote for Clinton thinking they could beat her (this would be a risk though as they would have to live with voting for her and her being President if she won).
Also, Wolfson told Scarborough — without spinning!!! — that the Clinton campaign was headed for an historic meltdown, a carnage, a blowout. And, so Scarborough (and others) believed them.
Duh.
Good point – NH independents have always loved McCain and NH is not a progressive Democratic state though it’s been swinging but it’s hard work.
I would not underestimate the Shaheen conservative Dem machine and their ability to GOTV.
Why were all the New Hampshire polls so utterly wrong?
Bad Machines.
The absentees would seems a reason ’cause they don’t have that in Iowa, right? So they may have been under the radar. But was HRC’sorganization that much better. But, i mean, all this happened in a few days since Thursday. I wasn’t sure rthat a poll could move so much as Obama’s numbers and be accurate. Just thought it was soft and some people claiming to suport Obama were undecided and didn’t pull the trigger. HRC deserves some credit for that (and it has nothing to do with tears).
My theory is that Hilary didn’t actually win, but the Right wants her as the candidate so badly that they simply rigged the voting machines again. I’m pretty sure they can do it over wireless Internet by now.
There were many factors that led to this upset. One that hasn’t been mentioned is that an inordinate number of independents might have gone for McCain in the mistaken belief, based on the polls, that the Democratic election was over.
I think it’s not that women switched from Edwards to Hillary in great numbers, but that the large number of undecided voters and the independents (which the pollsters had to guess how many to include) could have broken heavily in her favor.
Me too! Wheh i first came here, I got mildly rebuked for using a word that FDL doesn’t allow.
I though Clinton took away Edwards voters. I can’t help but think the debate. Even I, a staunch Edwards supporter, was taken aback. Why the hell didn’t he go after Obama? Why did he pounce on Hillary–on health care, no less? It turned me off, as someone who felt he just threw away a chance to compete in NH, and I assume many others were even pissed about it. This was really a result of Edwards more than anything, however, you know the village idiots will blame women for somehow becoming “Vaginal Americans,” which is just bullshit.
I’m glad Hillary is making this contest interesting. We need to get past all the smoke and mirrors and look at the substance.
I’ve been liking and trusting Edwards, Obama, and Clinton, in that order. But thinking about tonight’s result, I realized something I’d not considered before.
All three of them would be excellent presidents. But when the caca really hits the fan, it’s Hillary I’d want in the Oval Office.
ya gotta admit, that is a very short list
Polling is an inexact science and people are not committed until they cast their votes in many cases.
I would love for less of these forecasts, and if they continue to be wrong perhaps we will hear about them less and less.
Huckipoo came from no where and and they had McCain out of money and lost… and Rudi was top dog.
It’s all BS and I wish that the bobble heads would just shuddup!
Brian Williams just admitted he got spun by Clinton I person this afternoon.
I don’t rule out the machines. I don’t imagine, from what we have seen from HRC campaign the last days that internal polling showed different that what we saw.
brad blog……election fraud
Listen to Brian Williams talk about the Clinton apparachiks who told him today that the Clinton campaign was over — and they really believed it, it wasn’t spin!
Doofus.
What you need is EXIT polls to find out why people voted as they did and if they changed their minds at the last moment.
Re:
Bad Machines.
Else ‘good’ machine operators.
this is all corporate bullshit
I think I’m channeling Teddy.
If a reporter or pundit has not passed a course in statistics or mathematical modelling, they should not be allowed to comment on polls.
W
as it machines of paper ballets and optical scanners?
I do keep it open that this could have happened (though trying to call it I said no). This email is another thing for sure.
In any case I do agree with the folks that think it helped. The media will tune their message and shelf the Crying Game argument right away and then realize after their embarassing stupidity (and oxygen wasting that Tweety refuses to listen to even Tom Brokaw on) and realize they can attack her again. They will go with the MLK quote which was horrid.
Also as KO pointed out I think them covering it like they did and ignoring her attacks on Edwards and Obama right after that question.
Exactly Pumpkin Head – there is a lot more to come. And lets not get silly:
CHANGE:
Obama + Edwards + (DK, etc)
ESTAB:
Clinton + Richardson (Dodd and Biden gone but one one possible guess went to Clinton much more-so)
Small items of good weather, 50 degree that helped people get out to vote (it was hot!)
At same time Clinton did get out some new message, and can re-tool very much easier after this W.
Jane,
Do you ever wonder how many campaign trolls (paid or volunteers) show up at sites like this to purposely promote/demote stuff?
I would be shocked, simply shocked, if such tomfoolery were taking place. Not!
Iowa is a caucus–you must vote publicly. New Hampshire allows Independents to vote in either party’s primary. One might argue that these results, taken together, tell us nothing at all.
I think it was all Amanda Marcotte’s fault.
Jane, I think Brian believed the Clintonista, didn’t you?
Russert has a new source in the national culinary union that they are telling the local to remain neutral instead of announcing for Barack. Why is Russert so well-plugged in to the Culinary union? His caterer?
They were opening a large stack of absentee ballots at 6:30 pm when I checked out.
fucking Korporate Media wins… either HRC or BHO… either one are Korporate shills.
High five to the Korporate Media for their victory!
The MSNBC crew is blown away.
they cannot believe that Hillary could win.
Tweety is apoplectic.
I think that with the NH primary following so closely on the Iowa caucuses Obama’s Iowa win made it difficult to track its impact in NH. The media jumped the gun because that is what they always do. As I said in the last thread, Hillary had a solid organization in NH and it was enough to stave off a surge from Obama. Both Obama and Hillary had much larger organizations in NH than Edwards. I tend to discount the whole tears episode and reactions to it. For one thing, Edwards support held steady. I do not think Hillary took female votes from him. He did not have the time or organization to capitalize on his Iowa showing. If Hillary had really taken votes from him, you would expect his poll numbers to have fallen but instead they held steady. That’s my take on the Democratic field and I could care less about which batshit crazy loon did or did not win on the Republican side.
As of 2006 (the most recent reference I can find quickly) New Hampshire used a mix of hand-counting and optical-scan technology, with a voter-verifiable paper record required by law. There were lots of stories today about polling places concerned with “running out of ballots.”
Do you people talking about wireless hacking and bad machines have any information to the contrary, or is this just your automatic answer to any surprising result that you don’t like?
He eats a whole lot all the time.
Iowa is a caucus–you must vote publicly. New Hampshire allows Independents to vote in either party’s primary. One might argue that these results, taken together, tell us nothing at all.
cellphones!
Thanks to everyone in New Hampshire for your terrific on-the-ground reports, and to Siun for her tuned-in analysis of incoming returns.
I think it was all Amanda Marcotte’s fault.
my neighbor who my bellwether told me she had a change in opinon about Clinton over the weekend during the debates especially.
perhaps this should be the news Clinton campaign song
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEqcHE5edM8
Whatta day, whatta day . . .
G’nite, all!
Russert now feels less alone.
Not included in the list also as pointed out – people crossing over to vote in other primary (or lying to the polls; not due to race or gender but percived party advantage). Possible, but unlikely.
New Hampshire is a freakin’ mystery. Who knows…
For example, how can the total Repub primary turnout go down since 2000? Or the Dem. turnout go so far up?
Good point. Keepin it real.
“How could have the invasion of Iraq gone so wrong? William Kristoll speculates:”
g’nite peterr
I think Olbermann should know better than to use the word “concede” to describe the speeches given tonight by the non-winners. But, sadly no.
titanic?
Following up on your simple parsing of the women voters exit data — and this is still a pretty superficial analysis — but Obama did not exactly hold his women voters.
If you consider the sum of the top 3 as the new “universe” of voters, in Iowa, Obama got 35/88, or 40% of that vote. In NH, he got 34/95, or only 36%. (Hillary got 30/88, or 34% in Iowa and 47/95, or 49% in NH.) A shift of 3% or so of what might have been Obama vote into Hillary’s column explains some of the outcome. If the same few percent also shifted from Edwards to Hillary, then…. voila!
Russert is just trying to cover his ass after he announced the Culinary Workers were going to endorse Obama.
He was wrong then and he does not know what he is talking about now
he is a big fat pile of crap
It’s the Doug Wilder effect — people tell pollsters they’ll vote for a black candidate, and then go in the booth and don’t. Good for about 5%, though it does vary by state.
It’s the women effect — people tell pollsters they won’t vote for a woman, and then they do. Seen in Hilary’s 2000 Senate campaign. Let’s say 5%.
Bigotry can explain about 10% of the polling variations.
As for the rest, the warm weather which allowed greater numbers of older women to vote, the folks who made up their minds at the last minute, and yes, women annoyed at the misogyny on parade over the last few days.
Regardless of the reason, isn’t it nice to know voters can’t be taken for granted?
You calling me a troll? Heh heh….
Amazingly, MSGOP is showing clips from all three Democrats’ speeches.
I’ve just i.d.’d myself as a foul-mouthed blogger for Edwards. (See my 30) But in this case, I’ll be polite. In my view that e-mail is horseshit. Look, Edwrads tried to capitalize on beating HRC in Iowa by saying he and Obama were the only two real “change candidates.” So, seeing an opportunity, Hillary’s people trashed him. What did he say that was not true? The guy had been campaigning for 36 hours straight and had done the same a few days before in Iowa. He’s supposed to give a shit if Hillary gets dewey-eyed. People are reading too much into it. Misogony. Sexism. I just read it as Edwards saying he really couldn’t give a fuck about Hillary’s emotional displays. And isn’t that what we want? it doesn’t matter, right? So why should he care?
Bingo
Good evening dear friends.
Jane, if this really was a reaction against negative advertising, that would be wonderful!
Goodness, the toobz are busy tonight. Sorry for the double post.
Too, too bad about Edwards, but I’m glad Hillary stopped the supposed Obama bin Lieberman jaugernaut. James Wolcott is an Obama fan, but he has a great take on enthusiasm of the Obama movement. Total WWS (what wolcott said).
Speaking of movements, Obama can take his bipartisan rohypenol as a suppository tonight. (His face looks like he’s suffering from irregularity.) Congratulations, Hillary!
Anyone on the delegate counts (with out super delegates)?
KO on Edwards!!! He figured it out what, yeah “I want to be clear to the 99% of Americans that have not yet had a chance to have their voices heard…”
Nice its in a who has dropped-out (and wink wink should) segement.
BOOO KO, BOOO GE or whoever is the multi-national your Analysts are parsing about. What happens when a Brit is parsing for FOX and using his multi-national in the USA (well its Free Market – is it Fair Market?).
Going to bed so I don’t have to hear the McCain-a-mania here in AZ on the local news…
It sounds like Katha Pollit needs to get a grip.
One might expect the Wilder/Bradley effect to be stronger in states with very low AA population like, um, New Hampshire.
First Team Clinton tries to steal the Change theme. Now they’re trying to steal the Underdog theme. It’s all so Rovian.
Here is the CNN exit poll from 1:30 EDT 01/05…shows narrow Clinton win. If the election was “fixed”, so was the exit poll.
At 89% with 267 precincts reporting:
Clinton, Hillary Dem 99,863
Obama, Barack Dem 93,033
McCain, John GOP 79,061
Romney, Mitt GOP 67,574
Edwards, John Dem 43,100
Huckabee, Mike GOP 23,667
Giuliani, Rudy GOP 18,362
It’s only the one word that I know of for sure. And there;s another i use quite a bit but I figger might not be allowed here either so i don’t say that either.
Much of the polling used was weekend polling- notoriously unreliable- and the reaction from the Iowa result was apparently a wave that crested and receded.
Obama held woman vote under 40 (or Clinton advantage stopped) according to what they just said on MSNBC).
Tweety got in his dig on the far left (do not matter only moderate and breaking Independents).
The distaff blogosphere was quite up in arms about the Edwards reaction, though. And I think the reaction made a difference. I also think they got played by Edwards.
rupert murdoch has been throwing fund raisers for her since day 1.
It just doesn’t seem like Late Nite without any music videos.
So here’s one…
NH voters not liking their choices much could easily produce a lower turnout, even with a higher population. However, I suspect part of it was that independents can vote in either primary, since they’re a large chunk of the NH electorate. Independents supposedly went heavily for McCain in 2000, and if they voted more Democratic this time (even if not as much as in Iowa), that could easily do it.
Who is Mystery Pollster – if known.
I keep wondering, during all the MSNBC commentary, if Olbermann is itching to grab Tweety by the ears and beat his face against the desk to shut him the F up.
I know I am.
I will raise bail money for you
Wow, Mrs. “Bubble” Greenspan is in quite the mode. They showed “both” sides of the issue. And Obama and Edwards ganged up on Hillary until she “let her hair down”, etc etc.
Mrs Greenspan is relating all the mistakes from Iowa that Hillary corrected. Like going up there alone tonite, instead of with Bill and Chelsea. This woman is a harridan.
Okay, she used the phrase “let her hair down” to describe “The Moment” and defends NBC Nightly News from Olbermann’s earlier charge that no newscasts showed the pivot to attack Barack.
Wow, Andrea didn’t miss a beat there. Stuck the shiv right in.
Lots of independents = lots of moderates. I think Obama and Clinton split those votes and Edwards was more of the base.
Ick- KO says “Tweety reached first” in the cheek pinching cheek slapping encounter they had.
Beter way of sayin’ what I tried to say at 26. I agree. Hared to rtack movement in 3-4 days.
an amazing ride to hell
I don’t get it. It wasn’t long ago that Hillary was the anointed one who was going to sail to glorious victory. Now they’re surprised she has won a primary?
She was right in that there was no way in hell Mad Albright was going to be standing behind here tonight (win or lose). No way.
Tweety sez McCain is a great communicator, seems to forget the universal mockery earlier. Omg, Mrs Greenspan saw McCain in a middle seat in coach this summer. The horror!
Primary over. I’m starting to qrite a Sibel Edmonds story for my blog. What are the chances of Ted Stevens being one of the question marks where a picture should be?
Also, does anyone know of a really good picture of her? I want to photoshop some glasses on her and see how much she ends up looking like our governor.
LOL! And do they have any shekels to spare?
Someone needs to grab Andrea by the ears and force her to watch her opening segment tonight- she was so fuckin stubborn that she wouldn’t pay attention to actual numbers.
81% of the voting in NH is controlled by easily hackable, no paper trail Deibolds.
Let Me Count the Ways to Hack the NH Deibold Voting Machines
ET, i think I saw a picture of her yesterday.. let me think where it was but it was a great picture.
Another Princess who like her husband doesn’t pay a whole helluva lot of attention to numbers. Who needs numbers when you’re a legend in your own mind.
Changes
David Bowie
I still don’t know what I was waiting for
And my time was running wild
A million dead-end streets
Every time I thought I’d got it made
It seemed the taste was not so sweet
So I turned myself to face me
But I’ve never caught a glimpse
Of how the others must see the faker
I’m much too fast to take that test
Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Don’t want to be a richer man
Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Just gonna have to be a different man
Time may change me
But I can’t trace time
I watch the ripples change their size
But never leave the stream
Of warm impermanence and
So the days float through my eyes
But still the days seem the same
And these children that you spit on
As they try to change their worlds
Are immune to your consultations
They’re quite aware of what they’re going through
Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Don’t tell t hem to grow up and out of it
Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Where’s your shame
You’ve left us up to our necks in it
Time may change me
But you can’t trace time
Strange fascination, fascinating me
Changes are taking the pace I’m going through
Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Oh, look out you rock ‘n rollers
Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Pretty soon you’re gonna get a little older
Time may change me
But I can’t trace time
I said that time may change me
But I can’t trace time
Definitely so. He did and seemed at ease doing it. She didn’t seem to kmnow what to do (don’t blame her) and just did what he did.
Here’s a nice one, ET.
link
Is anyone saying that the multiple posts against Edwards over his “attack” of Clinton took all of his female voters?
I’m not saying it is bad machines. I am tossing it into the mix.
Read “Shadows of the Mind” Roger Penrose, page 403: “The Puzzling Election.”
Then go look at the copyright. I’ll save you the effort.
1994, Roger Penrose.
You might hark back to 2004. Kerry was ahead…..
Have you been over to Larisa’s place?
and here’s a pic of Sibel
thanks, margot, that’s the pic i was looking for
I don’t have the link but I don’t think there was a change from the percentages in the 2000 race.
Okay, turning off teevee, Tucker on now.
McCain believes in luck.
Thank you for the post. Time to finish the cheer and get back on the case.
No wait!!! Suzanne!! Phil Ochs did “Changes” first. Bowie is disqualified.
That would be me, with the additional fillip that Edwards did it on purpose with that intent.
And his magic voodo nickle he found heads up in NH (real smart).
you know he is
There is alot of egg to go around. Not sure how the polls could have been so far off. At least 1 part misogyny. It sure raised the hair on my neck.
I have to say that this is the best possible outcome for the party as a whole. It’s far too early for a coronation. All of our candidates could benefit from more seasoning. It’ll make them better candidates in the general.
A Theory on Clinton-Obama and McCain-Romney
this would explain a lot.
nite, bosses are back to work so i gotta show up awake.
making raspberry sound
Yeeesh. Hil and Bill make my skin crawl, and have for years!
They both seem so insincere and have these smirks whenever they’re talking that says to me, “Suckerz! I can’t believe you’re falling for this shit.”
It’s never changed for me. I know there’s plenty of people here that support them, and I’m not trying to insult anyone, but I honestly cannot see what the attraction is at all.
I will be very saddened is she wins, not just for my personal distrust of the Clintons, but I think it’ll set back many of the Liberal gains we’ve made in recent years for this one reason – it’ll lull many Liberals into complacency, just like it did throughout the 1990s, while they give more and more away to BigMoney at our expense.
At least Edwards and Obama have the possibility of giving us something different. Also, we’re mobilized online and it’s looking like another Blue Wave in Congress, so maybe it would be bearable this time, but man oh man, my entire adult life will be Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton in the White House, and it’s not like I’m some youngin’ anymore. Damn..
Hmmm… First Pete, then you, bmaz, maybe ya’ll should stay on EW’s turf…! *g*
What wasabi said.
Thanks to all hard working posters @ FDL today: Jane, Christy, Scarecrow, Eli, Blue Texan, attaturk, did I miss anyone, for the NH primary coverage, which has been exceptional.
We’re cooking omelettes late here tonight on 14 St. in Santa Monica, perhaps in keeping w/the egg on so many pundit faces this eve after the Hillary win. Hillary, Edwards, & Obama supporters plus our neighbor’s two cats are @ the table, our four dogs under it. A big Dem turnout in NH is to be savored by all. More huge Dem voter turnouts to come IMO- life is good, & it was wonderful to read here this evening.
Are you saying that you got pissed at Edwards, or pissed that Edwards only press for 4 days was that he was a bastard in this?
I didn’t know — I’m a child of the 70’s.
g’nite bfl
uh, in the interest of snark…
so far no one has mentioned the idea that a whole bunch of normally “R” voters crossed the line and voted for Clinton, just to further their cause- as in Hillary being the “D” candidate the “Rs” can most easily beat.
I be troll substitute this eve. ;)
You’re welcome, Suz.
I would really like to know more about this. I hope the whole story can be puzzled out in months, rather than years.
judas forking priest (exhaling) anyone else feeling like they just ran a forking marathon?
This could well be, but in Nashua there was paper ballots and Clinton took it no problem. Signs everwhere so I think they had cash and people that were good supporters that talked to their friends.
hey VG – we don’t need no stickin troll substitutes (laughing) how ya doing?
I think that’s true about Edwards, but not Obama for one major reason: he’s a corporate Democrat (strong lobbyist ties).
Who is the American voter who is attracted to both John McCain and Barack Obama? I have heard this argument about the New Hampshire independent voter who favors both McCain and Obama so many times, yet I am unable to conjure this person, and I have never seen one interviewed on teevee. Although all the pundits and pollsters (and many bloggers) speak admirably of this voter.
Don’t see how misogyny plays into a analysis of awoman so arrogant she wouldn’t take questions from people who came to her events or the press for nearly a frigging year.
Whichever sex when you won’t take questions, that’s offensive arrogance.
By signs everwhere I mean one corner with like 50 signs in many many places. As well as an even distribtion of lawn signs for most of the candidates.
Are you sure the bulk didn’t vote for Obama instead, as evidenced in Iowa? ;-)
I may start screaming at any moment.
It is. I’m going to link to the National Press Club ACLU speech, where that picture was taken, too.
This is the kind of things that people do not hear. I did not even know much about that until she switched to take questions.
So she gets a boost for suddenly taking questions but little problems for not taking any questions for that long.
Clinton, Hillary Dem 99,863
Obama, Barack Dem 93,033
McCain, John GOP 79,061
Romney, Mitt GOP 67,574
Edwards, John Dem 43,100
Huckabee, Mike GOP 23,667
Fun with numbers
Top 3 Dem: 235,996
Top 3 GOP: 170,302
Right, but after all, that’s part of the sample.
My whole take on the machines after reading some of the voting machine activist sites is that for something as important as the vote, we have allowed Secretaries of states, and state legislatures to be far too complacent with Deibold and machines like it.
It’s really hard to ignore guys like Rubin from MIT who hack these machines in nothing flat.
Neighbors going to call the police?
Has anybody heard one talking head question the voting machines?
I don’t know where this myth comes from, but I’ve heard it a lot recently. Hillary Clinton will take questions for hours at her events and bore you into catatonia. God help anyone who can’t make an early exit, it’s an endurance contest.
they have never heard of such problems.
The position is filled.
Ha,ha, that’s great Betsy! They sure do here in the urban north.
I am the person who thinks Edwards had his sexist rant about Hillary’s breakdown on-purpose to drive his women voters to her, in order to keep the race alive for another state.
It’a not that open a primary. Republicans cannot get a Dem ballot
Hillary is criticized for acting like a politician. She learned a good lesson in 1979 when Bill’s politics got ahead of the voters and he became the youngest ex-governor in the US. It is also sobering to remember that Bill Clinton has been the only two term Dem President since FDR. It’s easy to throw rocks from the peanut gallery; would the country have been better off if Bob Dole had been President..The SCOTUS sure would have been different.
Have the underbridgers been around, Suzanne?
I believe that she prefers questions from voters to questions from the traveling press. Saw the other day that she’d gotten on the press bus for the first time in a month or two.
Never. And that in and of itself says a lot.
Hey Suz! I’m with those (including newt) who said “I’m glad it’s still up in the air”. No coronation, so far, tg!
Hey! and after I gave you the nice prize last night…..
David Brooks came really close to suggesting hacking.
I’m sure they would since I live in a condo.
Hold the phone: are you suggesting Edwards was gallantly posing as a sexist to help Hillary?
Thanx Tex, I thought the same.
So Far…
Clinton 102,486
Obama 95,263
McCain 81,005
Hope the Gopers are watching.
when my nephew feels like taking out his aggression or yelling and screaming, he sits next to the truck with a hammer and an old hub cap and beats the damn thing up for 20 minutes. neighbors think he’s working loudly on the car. sometimes he runs, but mostly he bangs on hub caps. but not at 11 pm.
Ol’ Pete has been bashing Hillary harder than Tweets all night. It’s not an obsession.
It’s my Grand Unified Theory of the New Hampshire Primary.
The 40+% Independents can vote either party, tho… ;-)
Thank you Rachel Maddow – Si Se Puedo -
Best commenter on MSNBC tonight followed by make Tom Browka.
Also I think she is right her that it is for union not immigration. Bah, Obama and Clinton are pretty similar. Why isn’t there a nice case where some of these criminals are in handcuffs?
Maddow kicked butt there, Clinton was ahead and it was a great win but is not going to tear the fabric of Dems – Democrats are rocking tonight as she pointed out.
It’s good to see you!
Maddow was her stellar self this evening. Just great.
Oh. The GUT factor. *G*
I think if he knew how to influence events that precisely, he’d be winning already.
That was pretty cool… 8-)
It ain’t true Teddy. The Independents weren’t interchangeable votes for McCain or Obama.
Maddow rocked the house.
So, of the wee MSNBC audience tonite, what percentage do you suppose were howling like we were at their idiocy? I bet lots. They have become a political minstrel show — and Keith succumbs to it when in their presence.
Brian Williams and Joe Scarborough talking about all the serious, super-secret background conversations they had with Clintonistas who were really, really worried and were not spinning them — my favorite.
I’d say Obama would be the Dem of choice for Republicans, not Hillary. They all want an Obama McCain race, cuz they’re scairt of Hillary and payback (not that I think she’ll deliver).
top 4 vote getters so far
Dems 253,975
Gopers 193,264
I heart Rachel.
rachael kicks tushkie, teddy
read anything about the bildergerg group and you will understand what the hell is going on here. daniel estulin
email from Hillary:
I’m on her list — I like emails from The Dog Who Is Big.
Ummm yeah, that quote was harsh. Edwards is a sexist.
So is Clinton a racist for her MLK rant?
and maddow always rocks. loved her tape worm analogy.
You don’t think that maybe it’s a form letter?
bad form. bad form.
Good night my friends.
Y’all may feel free to eat from the bed cake while I tuck myself into the magic bed.
It doesn’t seem to be a myth. I haven’t been in a state where she was like you have, but I’ve seen a lot of events C-Span and other places where she wasn’t taking questions at all and her media exposure has been carefully controlled.
Countless press reports were that in Iowa, during December she was not taking any questions and at the events I saw on C-Span the second she stopped her speech music blared from the speakers.
At a rally right after the death of Bennie Bhutto I saw her turn away when asked to comment on it. Chelsea has also refused questions.
Hillary Clinton’s no-question policy didn’t sit well with some of the Iowans who came to see her speak.
“I was a little bit underwhelmed,’’ said Doug Rohde, 46, as he left her a rally in a fire station in Denison. “The message was very generic — and no questions.’’
Clinton campaign officials said that she may take questions in the coming days. But her focus is on seeing as many voters as possible before the caucuses next Thursday — and spotlighting the messages she wants to deliver.
I’m under the impression that her makeover has been because Obama has rocked her world, and the world of Patti Doyle, Mark Penn, Howard Wolfson, and her new handlers Bill Clinton and Terry McAuliffe.
Now she’s going to be taking questions, because whomever is running her campaign, they know she’s in for the fight of her life. I expect Obama to beat her.
I’ll bet this Jane–this time in three years the situation in Iraq will be worse, and we won’t have significantly reduced troops. I’ll remember this when you blog on Iraq in three years.
We’ll be pushing 5000 American deaths and 100,000 soldiers who can’t walk/see.
We are at about 4000 now, and 45,000 soldiers who have been neuro/ortho crippled or lost their sight.
The infrastructue in Iraq won’t be much better, permanant bases will be all over the place, and whichever Dem is in the White House won’t have changed the landscape in Iraq significantly.
Billions will continue to be hemorrhaged in Iraq, in slush fund superimposed upon slushfund.
Fitz’s interviews of Bush, Cheney, Rove, still won’t be released.
Refugees who are homeless will still be in the milions.
me? or the clintons?
pain free sleep wishes tex (thanks for the cake)
nite Tex, I’m out too. see ya manana
How could Edwards possibly use that moment to mobilize NH women who support him to vote for Clinton, and expect women in other states to return to the fold?
Teddy’s her pen pal, marymccurnin. I got a letter from Bill O’Reilly, thanking me for supporting him in HIS victory over Obama.
g’nite dosido
correction. THIS bed cake is even cuter!
No idea why duplicate posts; I hit send once.
Its really about 5000 already. The Administration does not include their dead contractors in their figures. They should
Paul Rosenberg has a post at OpenLeft which shows that voters broke to Clinton seemingly because she was the most Populist! His charts breaking things down by income and education showing Clinton being viewed as far superior to Edwards in rebuilding the middle class.
Crazy you say? WTF? You exclaim. Remember one thing folks, and Jane will back me up on this, the primary doesn’t look to the voters the way it looks to you and me. We pretty much see and hear everything the campaigns are putting out as ‘message’. The voters do not. They live in a different space. One where how much money a campaign has to spend pretty much dictates what the voter will hear.
Outspent 6 to 7 to 1 by Clinton and Obama they ‘won’ the primary with his message. Which I’m sure they’ll jettison as soon as possible to avoid upsetting their backers.
We saw in in Lamont vs. Lieberman. We are going to continue to see it until campaigns are publicly financed. And TV time is free.
So, remember kids! The voters noosphere ain’t oursphere!
amazingly, I am still watching msnbs… Matthews and Fineman seem to be developing a new “narrative”…
now, I think Eugene Robinson (?) is disappointed that Obama lost and is pushing the “Bradley effect” as the reason.
I think that is possible but pretty premature… nonetheless, Tweety and Fineman have jumped on this as the reason… Buchannan is predicting a great big “war”… are they going to try to turn this into a “race war” (according to them)?
Is that the new narrative?
TeddySanFran January 8th, 2008 at 9:21 pm
144
Who is the American voter who is attracted to both John McCain and Barack Obama? I have heard this argument about the New Hampshire independent voter who favors both McCain and Obama so many times, yet I am unable to conjure this person, and I have never seen one interviewed on teevee. Although all the pundits and pollsters (and many bloggers) speak admirably of this voter.
___________________
agreed. on to South Carolina. ought to be interesting. hope we don’t have to hold our noses.
A hard refresh will relieve that.
Ahhh! Marzipan frosting, I just bet!
Nite, and hope that magic bed is comfy.
That’s a cake?
Wow. How do you eat something like that? I can just see the baker – I slaved all day over a hot…bed and all you eat is a pillow?
Maybe Hillary found out how many nights Teddy surprises people. I think she’s just trying to ride his coattails. “You and I”, sheesh.
I got the same e-mail from Clinton that Teddy got.
After she wrote what Teddy quoted, she asked for money.
Yep, no doubt – the whole thing is just ick; why is he touching her and why is she going over to school him with a hug. I just do not like their exchanges – she should just avoid him he is so lame.
As for getting an email for helping out and also coming on the same thing and pushing that someone is sexist I am not for that. Especially with equally similar comments taking a pass on (would that not make the Clinton MLK comments racist if the Edwards comments are sexists).
I’m sure you’re right, and other categories as well. When I look at Iraq figures, or for that matter any figures loosely associated with anything that has to do with government any more, I take them with a grain of salt.
It’s hard to find an accurate number for the contractors who are in Iraq and there are so many categories of people who aren’t military but have government contracts. When Blackwater started to break big, I saw figures over 100,000.
AstralTechnician January 8th, 2008 at 9:29 pm
171
So Far…
Clinton 102,486
Obama 95,263
McCain 81,005
Hope the Gopers are watching.
_______________
wonder how many of those Obama voters will cross over to St. John in November ………
all right, all… past my bedtime… good night…
nite OC!
Sorry, but the dead contractors are just ‘write offs.’ I wouldn’t be surprised if the ‘employers’ had life insurance policies on every one of them. We’re talkin ‘return on investment’ here.
I think the ‘Bradley Effect’ analysis is bunk.
The difference between Iowa and New Hampshire was how the female vote broke. That doesn’t jibe with this supposed “Bradley Efect.”
I guess people will be anxiously awaiting the Poppy and Bubba World Renewal Tour after all.
-G
Van Heuvel on MSNBC just talked about the “first woman–first black to vie for President.”
Anybody ever hear of Jesse Jackson? How about Shirley Chisolm?
g’nite oc
How many Obama supporters want us to be in Iraq for 10,000 years?
And that’s exactly how she’ll run her administration in the unlikely event she gets past McCain.
Not a popular position, mine, but I believe there will be far more similarities between a Clinton administration and Bush’s reign than anyone would believe.
We will stay in Iraq. Since Miss Nancy and ‘SellOut’ Reid in their infinite stupidity and corruption have not seen fit to end it or at least put up a fight the war becomes Hillary’s war, as PumpkinHaid and Chrissie will point out, the very day she takes office.
She will make the same sort of monumental error born of arrogance Bill made, he in regards to NAFTA, that we will ’stay the course’. And while Bush chuckles from his ranch in Paraguay the Democratic Party will cannibalize itself. Setting the stage for ‘The Return of The NeoCons’ in 2012.
Ya left out Alan Keyes… ;-)
and let’s not leave out Liddy Dole
actually, Van Heuvel on MSNBC is who left all those folks off that list
917 as of mid May of 2007. Most of these were contracted to the US, but not all. Certainly is likely over 1000 working for US dead by now, some eight months later.
thanks, suz.
Lots of folks in the MSM are under the impression that “History” is something that happened last week. Forget the name, but a woman also ran as a Republican for President.
I was a local campaign manager against Clinton in 1992 in the primaries. Ron Brown’s DNC aggressively tried to shut us down, along with the other Dem campaigns in town even before Iowa. I grew very disenchanted with the process at this point, and could not understand why they couldn’t just let the best candidate win on ideas and debates, and let the voters decide on their own. Why all the mysterious flyers with lies about my candidate, and strange stories run in the Media, which eventually were debunked?
I shortly thereafter learned about the DLC, and ever since then have had this theory that the DLC, “centrist” Dem meme was created specifically to undermine the DemocratIC Party from within. Nothing they have done since has changed this opinion, and this last year of Dem “leadership” has proven it for me.
So Bill Clinton is the only Democrat that could’ve won in ‘92, then obviously ‘96? Is it not possible that if the BigMoney wing of the Party wasn’t ramming this guy down our throats, that some other candidate could’ve arisen that was truly a Liberal and still win the General?
I bring this up because I see history repeating right now with Hillary’s campaign. They, along with the Conglomerate Media, have been building her up as “unbeatable” and “inevitable” for 10 years! She might lose it anyway, but tonight reflected that all that groundwork still has some effect.
The “centrist” bi-partisan approach championed by the Clintons and others is largely responsible for our current Constitutional Crisis IMHO. Sure, a balanced budget was nice and some other things here or there, but overall the fascists got much of what they wanted during Clinton’s tenure (NAFTA, Telecommunications Act, etc.), and that created the conditions for the Neocons to run amok when they had the opportunity.
Not to mention the fact that Bill’s inability for self-control, when a certain intern was in his office, led to Shrub’s Presidency, since Gore was tarnished with that story enough to allow Florida to come into play. Seriously, I just can’t comprehend being in his position, and when things started to get hot and heavy, that he couldn’t stop and say, “Hey, you know what? This isn’t such a good idea.” Would you not think about what could happen if this was found out? Now hundreds of thousands have died needlessly because the Neocons were able to take over. Guess Bill could’ve used some more “experience” and wasn’t quite ready to “lead.”
Ugh. To think they might be around more! Please, just go away Clintons. Please…
With 228 comments, I’m sure it’s already been said, but I think she took women voters from Edwards because of his crappy comment, and because of the way his supporters treated Clinton today, as aired on ABC. I know when I saw her approach intrusive Edwards supporters who were chanting to shake hands the guy she approached backed away. I decided right then and there that I’d had enough of his rude, pushy supporters, and thus him. I don’t live in NH, but I bet I’m not alone in that response.
If I remember the reports correctly, the reporters were so stunned according to Huff Post, that Anne Kornbluth and others sat in silence and didn’t ask her much of anything.
bullshit…she took them from the black box
I agree with you. That’s why I’m helping with the Obama campaign.
My favorite quote from Jon Stewart:
Rudy 912: “We (meaning he doesn’t) don’t mention 911 near as much as people think.”
Rudi in reaction to Hill’s tearing up (inevitable)
“This is not something I’d judge anyone by. If you’ll look at me, September 11–the funerals…”
If you have the sound on when Rudi speaks for 11 months you are going to get your Fear Fix on.
Suzanne has a bright shiny new post upstairs!
I think you’re just flapping your fingers. You have not one iota of substantive evidence at this point. And basing this rank speculation on the difference of the result from polls that were done over the weekend and in a situation that was in dynamic flux is silly. There is no reason whatsoever to believe that the hasty polling done between Iowa and NH had sufficient indicia of anything more than momentary validity and were not stale by the time they were put in hard form and reported. I call bullshit.
No thats a new one – the candidates supporters are such big bastards that the candidate sucks…
Well maybe Rudy… I am joking!
“IT IS ENOUGH THAT THE PEOPLE KNOW THERE WAS AN ELECTION. THOSE WHO CAST THE VOTES DECIDE NOTHING. THOSE WHO COUNT THE VOTES DECIDE EVERYTHING.”
JOSEPH STALIN
We are all being distracted by the circus. Does anybody here know the details of how votes are counted. Does anybody ask? There are people on the web who are addressing this. A lot has been learned since Stalin’s days. Ironically we are all blinded by our own democratic propaganda.
Does he need the noise for it to work? He could try a sledge hammer and a big truck tire. Great core training, too.
o.k.
Clinton won beacuse her supporters and (apperently the data says) women over 40.
That’s not a good enough victory to celebrate though, apparently you get an email if you throw in an argument that Edwards is a bastard.
Or your fellow citizens how vote for him. Great win, good night, sweet dreams.
Add 3 hours to the timestamp for New Hampsire time.
Are you sure it was any “crappy comment” from Edwards? I haven’t been able to find any such comment. Help me out.
Or was it possibly due to all the hyperbole characterizing Edwards’ comments as “crappy” or “sexist”?
NH
I’ve watched the pundits till my head hurts. Thats it for tonight for me.
Just the following observations…
* the female voting percentage was much larger than the male.
* Obama’s number was pretty much exactly the number reported here.
* from the pollster.com numbers it looks like Hil picked up votes from the Edwards, Biden and Richardson “blocks”
* I think the real question is where do the remaining Edwards people go when they break to one of the front runners
* I can’t figure out that answer from the exit polls, but it seems like it ought to be in here somewhere
Identity politics again. They do not serve your interests as a citizen nor a woman. Republicans have been using the concept on low-info voters for decades to ram thru their rightwing agenda. I gues it’s ok now for Democrats. After all we are on teh side of the light.
Correct?
A reality base analysis might indicate that you win when you outspend the other candidate six to one.
“I think what we need in a commander-in-chief is strength and resolve, and presidential campaigns are tough business, but being president of the United States is also tough business”
Is this the comment that got people so upset that they would call Edwards a “patronizing, sexist jerk”?
Really, that’s it? That’s not even hyper-sensitive, it borders on delusional.
Re:
Yes. Are you still on this thread? Perhaps we can finally have an intelligent dialogue now that the madding crowd has passed.
Finished my Sibel Edmonds post. Is there a currently working way to download YouTube videos to a Mac desktop? All the ones I’ve tried appear to be out of commission…
I use TubeSock. It’s pretty good.
Hi ET!
Hi ET,
Nice job on the Sibel Edmonds story at your blog. You certainly make the story seem more coherent than many other sources I’ve read. Thanks.
I don’t think the polls were wrong. I would have voted for Hillary, instead of Edwards (the candidate I support), if I lived in NH, not because of the comment, but because Hillary is my second choice. The polls were making it clear that Edwards was not closing the gap to win and therefore I would need to give my vote to Hillary to change the dynamics of an Obama blowout. How many voters did that? The vanishing votes for Edwards in NH seems to support my view that voters for Edwards switched to Hillary. The polls forecasting a blowout for Obama did it, not Tweety. I wholly agree with Hillary’s comment that change is action based. Obama has not in my opinion demonstrated leadership in the U.S. Senate correlating his talk with action. For example, if he is so against the war in Iraq, why has he been so passive on that issue?
Wow! I don’t know quite what to say because this sounds like someone who is so sensitive that any response at all could be interpreted as a defense of the indefensible or a repudiation of her heart-felt statement.
Politics isn’t easy and I’ve often noticed that any discussion of it brings out emotional reactions very quickly. That’s one reason it has generally been considered an unfit subject for polite conversation.
I suppose someone who was offended could e-mail the senator and ask him to respond to your concerns. Has anyone been generous enough toward him to ask for him to respond?
Have people who were offended considered that they may have been set-up by the Obama campaign which had used a similar tactic just the day or two before? It isn’t nice being called a racist or a ’sore loser’ or not patriotic and any number of other things. It tends to make you want to leave the conversation to the meanies. But, we can’t afford to do that. Too much is at stake. We have a job to do which is much larger than any one of us or any group of us. It’s an epic battle and it requires a lot of us.
Can we afford to ignore slights? No.
Can we afford to splinter our interest group? No.
We have to stand together because there is nobody else who will solve our problems. Sure, you might pick another candidate. That’s fine if there is one or two to choose from. Is there a suitable alternative?
I don’t like to pick ‘the least awful’ solution. I prefer to pick someone who is ideal in my view. I rarely get to do that. Generally, I have to pick someone who is close to what I want. Edwards isn’t my ideal. Howard Dean was closer. Bobby Kennedy was pretty great. Even Jimmy Carter was okay. Maybe Teddy Roosevelt, whom Edwards mentions, would’ve been bully good fun to watch in action. They aren’t in the pack today.
So, who can get the job done for you? I’m not asking who do you want to live with, just who would you hire to do the job.
Let’s get back to work!
Has anyone performed an analysis of the accuracy of the “professional” polling results vs. the media polls? It may be the problem with the polls is that those who were so inaccurate were simply using poor statistical methods…yeah, right.
It’s because the counting machine is counting it wrong. see http://www.digg.com/2008_us_el…..From_Obama
I’m a Vermonter, and I drove over to Claremont New Hampshire this weekend to support John Edwards. I didn’t see any rude, pushy supporters working for Edwards, just overworked, badly underfunded people volunteering.
For that matter, I will add, that everyone out canvassing, no matter for which candidate, were all polite and mutually appreciative.
I think reacting to all the spin and hysteria of a fairly mild comment from Edwards, and one of the only comments of his even covered by the press in the last month, is bullshit.
http://www.maltastar.com/pages…..p?an=17896
How do you know that the polls were wrong? Please think before answering.
The primary was rigged…the election will be too.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…..gspot.com/