Jane!

Hillary Clinton!!!

(I’m an Edwards supporter, but still…)

Hello, I must be going.

Night all.

Hey, i’m a foul mouthed blog commenter for Edwards!

Yay! Gene Robinson brings up the Bradley Effect!

g’nite jayt

that’s ok, I like the stick in MSM’s eye remark by punaise down below. we get it.

I would dearly love to see the internal polls that the campaigns had.

As to the public polls, all of the above sounds about right.

Or as I’ve been known to say, if I don’t know, choose ‘em all.

I just find it hysterical that everyone had it all wrong… MSM, pollsters and the talking heads…

I respect Hillary Clinton (see # 2 above) and I empathized with her moment of candor last night, but I did not find Edwards’ comments that offensive. I find it hard to believe that very many people switched from Edwards to Clinton on the basis of that alone.

Yes — and it was on-purpose by Edwards to keep the race in play.

I’m not sure that applies if Hillary took her votes from Edwards…

Edwards and Huckabee are scheduled for Larry King in 15 minutes … also Mark Penn I think.

One speculation over at Mystery Pollster was that the anti-Clinton independents, thinking Obama had her beaten, went over to the GOP side to vote for McCain.

If so, that’s a bit of a miscalcuation on their parts.

I’m an Edwards supporter, but I love this process anyhow. D winners of Iowa & NH are black & woman. Boo Hah. And it’s still a contest. A lot of disappointment for what I think is the appropriate course, but a lot to celebrate.

EPU’ed on topic:

Per MSNBS:

I do not think people not wanting to vote for an African American in there. Obama got lots of votes. I do agree that women coming out for Clinton was good. Also that there are less than 5% African American, who could have come out for a 1 - 2.5% edge for Obama with decent starting numbers.

I have not seen the exit poll data so 1 - 5 % with up to 2.5 going to Clinton/Edwards is how I swiped at that number.

Also Clinton really took the North country in NH, so it could be as there are many areas where people not voting for an African American could apply. I do not think massive amounts of people would lie about there vote to hide racism (there are tons of candidates to vote for anway).

I received an email today with a diatribe against John Edwards vis-a-vis his treatment of Hillary Clinton, a Katha Pollit piece about his reaction to her ‘verklempt’ moment. It had been forwarded to 60 other powerful women in a group interested in Title IX issues.

As a woman I experienced the Ginger Rogers double standard many times. I’m sure a lot of women like me were put off by all the anti-Hillary crap. I saw it as coming more from the media than the other candidates, but that email I received told me others didn’t see it that way.

Here’s the email I received:

Subject: Fwd: Katha POLLACK on misogyny and Clinton

As you can see from below, the misogyny doesn’t stop.

>
>
> Hillary Shows Feeling, is Slammed
>
>
> John Edwards just lost my vote. How dare he take cheap shots at Hillary Clinton for letting her eyes mist over (not “crying” as was widely reported) at a meeting with voters in Portsmouth NH earlier today? This is a man who has used his most private tragedies–his wife’s cancer, his son’s fatal accident — in his campaign in a way that had a woman done the same she would surely be accused of “oprahfying’ the lofty realm of politics. This is also the man who promoted himself early on as the real women’s candidate, and who has repeatedly used his likeable wife to humanize his rather slick and one-dimensional persona. Today he deployed against Hillary the oldest, dumbest canard about women: they’re too emotional to hold power. ABC’s Political Radar blog reports: “Edwards, speaking at a press availability in Laconia, New Hampshire, offered little sympathy and pounced on the opportunity to bring into question Clinton’s ability to endure the stresses of the presidency. Edwards responded, ‘I think what we need in a commander-in-chief is strength and resolve, and presidential campaigns are tough business, but being president of the United States is also tough business.’” Ooh, right,we need a big strong manly finger on that nuclear button! Even if that finger has spent most it its life writing personal injury briefs in North Carolina, which, when you come to think of it, is not an obvious preparation for commander-in-chiefhood. “When people say they don’t want anyone’s finger on the button who cries, I say I don’t want anyone’s finger there who doesn’t cry,” Pat Schroeder told me when we spoke by phone this afternoon. “Tears show someone is a human being.” Schroeder ought to know. In 1987 she was viciously attacked for shedding a few tears while announcing her withdrawal from the presidential race. “Ronald Reagan used to tear up all the time,” she said. ” when John Sununu left the New Hampshire governorship to run Reagan’s campaign he was crying so hard he couldn’t finish his speech. Bush recently teared up. Dozens of male politicians cry. But when a man cries, he’s applauded for having feelings. when a woman cries, she attacked as being weak.” Hillary Clinton, long criticized as cold, shows a bit of feeling and is attacked as overly emotional. It’s the latest installment of the ongoing double bind in which if she wears a black pantsuit she’s too masculine and if she wears a pink shell she’s too feminine; if she’s serious she’s humorless and if she laughs she “cackles.” (George Bush has a horrible heh-heh-heh laugh, Schroeder reminded me. But who, besides Jon Stewart, makes anything of it? ) When Hillary was First Lady she was attacked for being too involved in business of state; now, when she claims “experience” we’re reminded that First Ladies are basically trivial. “I’m so sick about the way Hillary is treated I can hardly talk about it,” Schroeder told me. It’s bad enough when the media goes after Hillary like a pack of addled lemmings. A few weeks ago it was her wrinkles — would people vote for a visibly middle-aged woman? today it was her welling eyes. But Edwards is not some on-air airhead . He’s supposed to represent “change,” remember? You’d think he’d be more alert to sexist gender scripts, given that he’s been dogged by accusations of effeminacy for (oh horrors) spending too much time and money on his hair. I guess in his case metrosexuality only goes scalp deep, because today he sounded like quite the old-school bully boy.

Russert says Obama needs to find his voice now.

Whose voice has he been using?

Hmmm . . . wouldn’t mind hearing Edwards or even Huckabee, but having to put up with Mark Penn is a pretty steep price.

I so agree.

Per:
One speculation over at Mystery Pollster was that the anti-Clinton independents, thinking Obama had her beaten, went over to the GOP side to vote for McCain.

If so, that’s a bit of a miscalcuation on their parts.

—
Buddy was going to do this but voted for Obama so this is possible, it is also possible that R’s crossed to vote for Clinton thinking they could beat her (this would be a risk though as they would have to live with voting for her and her being President if she won).

Also, Wolfson told Scarborough — without spinning!!! — that the Clinton campaign was headed for an historic meltdown, a carnage, a blowout. And, so Scarborough (and others) believed them.

Duh.

Good point - NH independents have always loved McCain and NH is not a progressive Democratic state though it’s been swinging but it’s hard work.

I would not underestimate the Shaheen conservative Dem machine and their ability to GOTV.

Why were all the New Hampshire polls so utterly wrong?

Bad Machines.

The absentees would seems a reason ’cause they don’t have that in Iowa, right? So they may have been under the radar. But was HRC’sorganization that much better. But, i mean, all this happened in a few days since Thursday. I wasn’t sure rthat a poll could move so much as Obama’s numbers and be accurate. Just thought it was soft and some people claiming to suport Obama were undecided and didn’t pull the trigger. HRC deserves some credit for that (and it has nothing to do with tears).

My theory is that Hilary didn’t actually win, but the Right wants her as the candidate so badly that they simply rigged the voting machines again. I’m pretty sure they can do it over wireless Internet by now.

There were many factors that led to this upset. One that hasn’t been mentioned is that an inordinate number of independents might have gone for McCain in the mistaken belief, based on the polls, that the Democratic election was over.

I think it’s not that women switched from Edwards to Hillary in great numbers, but that the large number of undecided voters and the independents (which the pollsters had to guess how many to include) could have broken heavily in her favor.

Me too! Wheh i first came here, I got mildly rebuked for using a word that FDL doesn’t allow.

I though Clinton took away Edwards voters. I can’t help but think the debate. Even I, a staunch Edwards supporter, was taken aback. Why the hell didn’t he go after Obama? Why did he pounce on Hillary–on health care, no less? It turned me off, as someone who felt he just threw away a chance to compete in NH, and I assume many others were even pissed about it. This was really a result of Edwards more than anything, however, you know the village idiots will blame women for somehow becoming “Vaginal Americans,” which is just bullshit.

I’m glad Hillary is making this contest interesting. We need to get past all the smoke and mirrors and look at the substance.

I’ve been liking and trusting Edwards, Obama, and Clinton, in that order. But thinking about tonight’s result, I realized something I’d not considered before.

All three of them would be excellent presidents. But when the caca really hits the fan, it’s Hillary I’d want in the Oval Office.

ya gotta admit, that is a very short list

Polling is an inexact science and people are not committed until they cast their votes in many cases.

I would love for less of these forecasts, and if they continue to be wrong perhaps we will hear about them less and less.

Huckipoo came from no where and and they had McCain out of money and lost… and Rudi was top dog.

It’s all BS and I wish that the bobble heads would just shuddup!

Brian Williams just admitted he got spun by Clinton I person this afternoon.

I don’t rule out the machines. I don’t imagine, from what we have seen from HRC campaign the last days that internal polling showed different that what we saw.

brad blog……election fraud

Listen to Brian Williams talk about the Clinton apparachiks who told him today that the Clinton campaign was over — and they really believed it, it wasn’t spin!

Doofus.

What you need is EXIT polls to find out why people voted as they did and if they changed their minds at the last moment.

Re:

Why were all the New Hampshire polls so utterly wrong?

Bad Machines.

Else ‘good’ machine operators.

this is all corporate bullshit

I think I’m channeling Teddy.

If a reporter or pundit has not passed a course in statistics or mathematical modelling, they should not be allowed to comment on polls.

W
as it machines of paper ballets and optical scanners?

I do keep it open that this could have happened (though trying to call it I said no). This email is another thing for sure.

In any case I do agree with the folks that think it helped. The media will tune their message and shelf the Crying Game argument right away and then realize after their embarassing stupidity (and oxygen wasting that Tweety refuses to listen to even Tom Brokaw on) and realize they can attack her again. They will go with the MLK quote which was horrid.

Also as KO pointed out I think them covering it like they did and ignoring her attacks on Edwards and Obama right after that question.

Exactly Pumpkin Head - there is a lot more to come. And lets not get silly:

CHANGE:
Obama + Edwards + (DK, etc)

ESTAB:
Clinton + Richardson (Dodd and Biden gone but one one possible guess went to Clinton much more-so)

Small items of good weather, 50 degree that helped people get out to vote (it was hot!)

At same time Clinton did get out some new message, and can re-tool very much easier after this W.

Jane,

Do you ever wonder how many campaign trolls (paid or volunteers) show up at sites like this to purposely promote/demote stuff?

I would be shocked, simply shocked, if such tomfoolery were taking place. Not!

Iowa is a caucus–you must vote publicly. New Hampshire allows Independents to vote in either party’s primary. One might argue that these results, taken together, tell us nothing at all.

I think it was all Amanda Marcotte’s fault.

Jane, I think Brian believed the Clintonista, didn’t you?

Russert has a new source in the national culinary union that they are telling the local to remain neutral instead of announcing for Barack. Why is Russert so well-plugged in to the Culinary union? His caterer?

They were opening a large stack of absentee ballots at 6:30 pm when I checked out.

fucking Korporate Media wins… either HRC or BHO… either one are Korporate shills.

High five to the Korporate Media for their victory!

The MSNBC crew is blown away.

they cannot believe that Hillary could win.

Tweety is apoplectic.

I think that with the NH primary following so closely on the Iowa caucuses Obama’s Iowa win made it difficult to track its impact in NH. The media jumped the gun because that is what they always do. As I said in the last thread, Hillary had a solid organization in NH and it was enough to stave off a surge from Obama. Both Obama and Hillary had much larger organizations in NH than Edwards. I tend to discount the whole tears episode and reactions to it. For one thing, Edwards support held steady. I do not think Hillary took female votes from him. He did not have the time or organization to capitalize on his Iowa showing. If Hillary had really taken votes from him, you would expect his poll numbers to have fallen but instead they held steady. That’s my take on the Democratic field and I could care less about which batshit crazy loon did or did not win on the Republican side.

As of 2006 (the most recent reference I can find quickly) New Hampshire used a mix of hand-counting and optical-scan technology, with a voter-verifiable paper record required by law. There were lots of stories today about polling places concerned with “running out of ballots.”

Do you people talking about wireless hacking and bad machines have any information to the contrary, or is this just your automatic answer to any surprising result that you don’t like?

He eats a whole lot all the time.

Iowa is a caucus–you must vote publicly. New Hampshire allows Independents to vote in either party’s primary. One might argue that these results, taken together, tell us nothing at all.

cellphones!

Thanks to everyone in New Hampshire for your terrific on-the-ground reports, and to Siun for her tuned-in analysis of incoming returns.

I think it was all Amanda Marcotte’s fault.

my neighbor who my bellwether told me she had a change in opinon about Clinton over the weekend during the debates especially.

perhaps this should be the news Clinton campaign song

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEqcHE5edM8

Whatta day, whatta day . . .

G’nite, all!

Brian Williams just admitted he got spun by Clinton I person this afternoon.

Russert now feels less alone.

Not included in the list also as pointed out - people crossing over to vote in other primary (or lying to the polls; not due to race or gender but percived party advantage). Possible, but unlikely.

New Hampshire is a freakin’ mystery. Who knows…

For example, how can the total Repub primary turnout go down since 2000? Or the Dem. turnout go so far up?

Good point. Keepin it real.

“How could have the invasion of Iraq gone so wrong? William Kristoll speculates:”

g’nite peterr

I think Olbermann should know better than to use the word “concede” to describe the speeches given tonight by the non-winners. But, sadly no.

titanic?

Following up on your simple parsing of the women voters exit data — and this is still a pretty superficial analysis — but Obama did not exactly hold his women voters.

If you consider the sum of the top 3 as the new “universe” of voters, in Iowa, Obama got 35/88, or 40% of that vote. In NH, he got 34/95, or only 36%. (Hillary got 30/88, or 34% in Iowa and 47/95, or 49% in NH.) A shift of 3% or so of what might have been Obama vote into Hillary’s column explains some of the outcome. If the same few percent also shifted from Edwards to Hillary, then…. voila!

Russert is just trying to cover his ass after he announced the Culinary Workers were going to endorse Obama.

He was wrong then and he does not know what he is talking about now
he is a big fat pile of crap

It’s the Doug Wilder effect — people tell pollsters they’ll vote for a black candidate, and then go in the booth and don’t. Good for about 5%, though it does vary by state.

It’s the women effect — people tell pollsters they won’t vote for a woman, and then they do. Seen in Hilary’s 2000 Senate campaign. Let’s say 5%.

Bigotry can explain about 10% of the polling variations.

As for the rest, the warm weather which allowed greater numbers of older women to vote, the folks who made up their minds at the last minute, and yes, women annoyed at the misogyny on parade over the last few days.

Regardless of the reason, isn’t it nice to know voters can’t be taken for granted?

You calling me a troll? Heh heh….

Amazingly, MSGOP is showing clips from all three Democrats’ speeches.

I’ve just i.d.’d myself as a foul-mouthed blogger for Edwards. (See my 30) But in this case, I’ll be polite. In my view that e-mail is horseshit. Look, Edwrads tried to capitalize on beating HRC in Iowa by saying he and Obama were the only two real “change candidates.” So, seeing an opportunity, Hillary’s people trashed him. What did he say that was not true? The guy had been campaigning for 36 hours straight and had done the same a few days before in Iowa. He’s supposed to give a shit if Hillary gets dewey-eyed. People are reading too much into it. Misogony. Sexism. I just read it as Edwards saying he really couldn’t give a fuck about Hillary’s emotional displays. And isn’t that what we want? it doesn’t matter, right? So why should he care?

Bingo

Good evening dear friends.

Jane, if this really was a reaction against negative advertising, that would be wonderful!

Goodness, the toobz are busy tonight. Sorry for the double post.

Too, too bad about Edwards, but I’m glad Hillary stopped the supposed Obama bin Lieberman jaugernaut. James Wolcott is an Obama fan, but he has a great take on enthusiasm of the Obama movement. Total WWS (what wolcott said).
Speaking of movements, Obama can take his bipartisan rohypenol as a suppository tonight. (His face looks like he’s suffering from irregularity.) Congratulations, Hillary!

Anyone on the delegate counts (with out super delegates)?

KO on Edwards!!! He figured it out what, yeah “I want to be clear to the 99% of Americans that have not yet had a chance to have their voices heard…”

Nice its in a who has dropped-out (and wink wink should) segement.

BOOO KO, BOOO GE or whoever is the multi-national your Analysts are parsing about. What happens when a Brit is parsing for FOX and using his multi-national in the USA (well its Free Market - is it Fair Market?).

Going to bed so I don’t have to hear the McCain-a-mania here in AZ on the local news…

It sounds like Katha Pollit needs to get a grip.

One might expect the Wilder/Bradley effect to be stronger in states with very low AA population like, um, New Hampshire.

First Team Clinton tries to steal the Change theme. Now they’re trying to steal the Underdog theme. It’s all so Rovian.

What you need is EXIT polls to find out why people voted as they did and if they changed their minds at the last moment.

Here is the CNN exit poll from 1:30 EDT 01/05…shows narrow Clinton win. If the election was “fixed”, so was the exit poll.

At 89% with 267 precincts reporting:

Clinton, Hillary Dem 99,863
Obama, Barack Dem 93,033
McCain, John GOP 79,061
Romney, Mitt GOP 67,574
Edwards, John Dem 43,100
Huckabee, Mike GOP 23,667
Giuliani, Rudy GOP 18,362

It’s only the one word that I know of for sure. And there;s another i use quite a bit but I figger might not be allowed here either so i don’t say that either.

Much of the polling used was weekend polling- notoriously unreliable- and the reaction from the Iowa result was apparently a wave that crested and receded.

Obama held woman vote under 40 (or Clinton advantage stopped) according to what they just said on MSNBC).

Tweety got in his dig on the far left (do not matter only moderate and breaking Independents).

The distaff blogosphere was quite up in arms about the Edwards reaction, though. And I think the reaction made a difference. I also think they got played by Edwards.

rupert murdoch has been throwing fund raisers for her since day 1.

It just doesn’t seem like Late Nite without any music videos.

So here’s one…

NH voters not liking their choices much could easily produce a lower turnout, even with a higher population. However, I suspect part of it was that independents can vote in either primary, since they’re a large chunk of the NH electorate. Independents supposedly went heavily for McCain in 2000, and if they voted more Democratic this time (even if not as much as in Iowa), that could easily do it.

Who is Mystery Pollster - if known.

I keep wondering, during all the MSNBC commentary, if Olbermann is itching to grab Tweety by the ears and beat his face against the desk to shut him the F up.

I know I am.

I will raise bail money for you

Wow, Mrs. “Bubble” Greenspan is in quite the mode. They showed “both” sides of the issue. And Obama and Edwards ganged up on Hillary until she “let her hair down”, etc etc.

Mrs Greenspan is relating all the mistakes from Iowa that Hillary corrected. Like going up there alone tonite, instead of with Bill and Chelsea. This woman is a harridan.

Okay, she used the phrase “let her hair down” to describe “The Moment” and defends NBC Nightly News from Olbermann’s earlier charge that no newscasts showed the pivot to attack Barack.

Wow, Andrea didn’t miss a beat there. Stuck the shiv right in.

Lots of independents = lots of moderates. I think Obama and Clinton split those votes and Edwards was more of the base.

Ick- KO says “Tweety reached first” in the cheek pinching cheek slapping encounter they had.

Beter way of sayin’ what I tried to say at 26. I agree. Hared to rtack movement in 3-4 days.

an amazing ride to hell

I don’t get it. It wasn’t long ago that Hillary was the anointed one who was going to sail to glorious victory. Now they’re surprised she has won a primary?

She was right in that there was no way in hell Mad Albright was going to be standing behind here tonight (win or lose). No way.

Tweety sez McCain is a great communicator, seems to forget the universal mockery earlier. Omg, Mrs Greenspan saw McCain in a middle seat in coach this summer. The horror!

Primary over. I’m starting to qrite a Sibel Edmonds story for my blog. What are the chances of Ted Stevens being one of the question marks where a picture should be?

Also, does anyone know of a really good picture of her? I want to photoshop some glasses on her and see how much she ends up looking like our governor.

LOL! And do they have any shekels to spare?

Someone needs to grab Andrea by the ears and force her to watch her opening segment tonight- she was so fuckin stubborn that she wouldn’t pay attention to actual numbers.

81% of the voting in NH is controlled by easily hackable, no paper trail Deibolds.

Let Me Count the Ways to Hack the NH Deibold Voting Machines

ET, i think I saw a picture of her yesterday.. let me think where it was but it was a great picture.

Another Princess who like her husband doesn’t pay a whole helluva lot of attention to numbers. Who needs numbers when you’re a legend in your own mind.

Changes
David Bowie

I still don’t know what I was waiting for
And my time was running wild
A million dead-end streets
Every time I thought I’d got it made
It seemed the taste was not so sweet
So I turned myself to face me
But I’ve never caught a glimpse
Of how the others must see the faker
I’m much too fast to take that test

Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Don’t want to be a richer man
Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Just gonna have to be a different man
Time may change me
But I can’t trace time

I watch the ripples change their size
But never leave the stream
Of warm impermanence and
So the days float through my eyes
But still the days seem the same
And these children that you spit on
As they try to change their worlds
Are immune to your consultations
They’re quite aware of what they’re going through

Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Don’t tell t hem to grow up and out of it
Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Where’s your shame
You’ve left us up to our necks in it
Time may change me
But you can’t trace time

Strange fascination, fascinating me
Changes are taking the pace I’m going through

Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Oh, look out you rock ‘n rollers
Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Pretty soon you’re gonna get a little older
Time may change me
But I can’t trace time
I said that time may change me
But I can’t trace time

Definitely so. He did and seemed at ease doing it. She didn’t seem to kmnow what to do (don’t blame her) and just did what he did.

Here’s a nice one, ET.
link

Is anyone saying that the multiple posts against Edwards over his “attack” of Clinton took all of his female voters?

I’m not saying it is bad machines. I am tossing it into the mix.

Read “Shadows of the Mind” Roger Penrose, page 403: “The Puzzling Election.”

Then go look at the copyright. I’ll save you the effort.

1994, Roger Penrose.

You might hark back to 2004. Kerry was ahead…..

Have you been over to Larisa’s place?

and here’s a pic of Sibel