Some thoughts on the aftermath of the Iowa caucuses:
- The Dems just kicked butt WRT turnout, something that’s not been common in Democratic primaries over the years. They outdrew the GOP by nearly two to one — in fact, all three Democratic front-runners, Obama, Edwards and Clinton, garnered more votes from their caucus-goers than Mike Huckabee, the GOP winner, got from his.
- Hillary spent as much as Obama and three times as much as Edwards, yet not only did she NOT win, she lost to both Obama and Edwards. So much for her inevitable nomination! It’s a horse race now, in case it wasn’t obvious before. In fact, if there’s any inevitability in this race, it’s likely resting with Obama, as the front-loaded primary schedule (which former DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe championed as a way to save the Democratic candidates money in the days when the GOP’s K Street Project still had a stranglehold on big-money donations), which has been exacerbated by the rush towards early primaries, means that Iowa’s importance has been increased — and in 2004, it was very important indeed. Chris Bowers used data from the 1988 and 2004 caucuses, the two most recent ones where Iowa was hotly contested, and found that on average the winner of the Iowa caucus got a 14.5% bump in New Hampshire, whereas the second-place finisher averaged a 3.2% bump and the third-place finished got penalized 3.5%.
- The GOP base in Iowa is loaded up with Fundies and other social conservatives, and they’re somewhat suspicious of East Coast guys: Not only did Mike Huckabee easily stomp Mitt "Five Golden Plates" Romney, but Ron Paul beat Rudy "9/11! 9/11! Fear Fear Fear!" Giuliani like a gong.
- Hillary is going to have to step it up several notches and go into full-bore Deathmatch mode against Obama. She can’t afford to settle for even second place now in New Hampshire or the whispers about her campaign’s viability will turn into shouts. The problem with this for her is that she runs the risk of triggering a mutual suicide pact between her and Barack, similar to what Dean and Gephardt got bogged down in during the run-up to Iowa in December 2003. In a scenario like this, Edwards gets to play the John Kerry "last man standing" role — and there’s not much that Hillary could do about it, as she has to concentrate her firepower on Obama and Obama alone.
So what are your thoughts on Iowa, New Hampshire, or anything else on your mind this fine sunny Saturday morning?
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Ack–epu-ed before I even commented in last thread.
Sunny? Where?
PW!
Good morning PW!
Morning Prairie. This doesn’t happen often.
PW, I was going to respond to comments last thread regarding the upcoming Book Salon this afternoon, but maybe it fits a bit more here in this thread where you’ve posted more extensively. My thought’s a bit longish, so I’ll take the liberty of giving you a link to my blog instead of trying to cram it into a single paragraph [and aren’t we all on the same wavelength this morning!]:
I’m feeling the urge to leave the country in 2008, maybe go to France for the year, to not have to witness this crap ad nauseum on the front-burner of my consciousness. Can’t do so, of course, so it’ll be a year of mind-numbing banality then
I hope it plays out as you describe. I want Edwards to be our candidate. Give Hillary and Obama some brass knuckles and let them go at it.
Hey, sleepyhead–we must do lunch soon.
Not here, alas — though I was hoping it would be.
Good morning, everyone!
in fact, all three Democratic front-runners, Obama, Edwards and Clinton, garnered more votes from their caucus-goers than Mike Huckabee, the GOP winner, got from his.
Well, fortunately, there *is* a finite number of fundies. Unfortunately, as the campaigns move to more reality-based states, Huck’s gonna start losing. Too bad, because it would (will?) be fun to watch the Repub’s unleash all of their most mean-spirited, vindictive powers against a fellow repub.
P.S. I keep hearing that there are debate(s)? tonight. Anybody know where they might be seen?
Mr and Mrs Scarborough just said clinton was booed for attacking obama
a total flat out lie…and when asked about it ….said that is what would happen if she did it…what a pair of assholes and liars
Obama should be concerned to have msfop supporting him
Yes lets. . Although I’m not actually “up yet.
PS: Thanks for this! (Nice doggie picture, too.)
Did anybody make any coffee? I don’t want to face the fog outside that rolled in when I wasn’t looking. (Then again, at least we’re not dealing with flooding — yet. That might change Sunday night.)
The Corporatist Wing of the rethug party must attack Huckabee to knock him out. Its gonna get messy. They’re gonna have to tear up Rayguns 1lth ammendment – Never puke on another rethug’s Ferragamos.
I just bought Season Four of “The Wire.” Can’t wait to sit down and enjoy.
I’m also being Bourne Again, yummie. Bought the 4-disk series set. The ultimate popcorn movies for me. Now, in contrast to the veritable tsunami of profanities and obscenities that characterize “Wire” discourse, I could not recall much bad language in the Bourne flicks, so last night I started over with “The Bourne Identity” (1st of the series). Two “Goddammit”s, one “this shit”, one “fuck it”, “oh, shit”, one “Dammit.”
That was all.
Never mind – found it. Debates are on ABC from 7:00 to 11:00 P.M. EST.
Aack – up against NFL playoff football. Which to watch -which to record?
Marley and Nova thank you…or would, if they were awake… I have fresh ground Caribou Coffee, French roast, extra dark and strong. Thinkin’ about heading over to Breadsmith for fresh cinnamon rolls slathered in frosting. But then I’m thinking of how many extra exercise bike miles that’s going to make necessary.
Bruno Maglis – Rich Republican men prefer Bruno Magli.
Hi, PW! Hi, everyone!
I’ve got a number of Republican friends and associates who see the writing on the wall, and are looking to me for advice and information about the Democratic candidates.
Anyone have any ideas about descriptions of the Dem candidates positions, but written in such a way as to relate to the traditional concerns of Republican voters (not the batshit crazy ones; rather, the ones who have some grip on reality)?
I was epu’d also. I left this link http://www.BCImpeach.com from my email box this am. Thought I’d share it again.
I don’t usually reiterate, so, sorry if this bugs anyone.
I found the debates on ABC at 5pm MST on my local cable provider. It states both Dem & Repugs.
PW just had a pot of Italian espresso made….want it with cream and biscotti?
Having some bagels and Nova Scotia smoked salmon right now.
“I want America to go to war forever to kill all those terrorists.
I don’t want the government to pay for Medicare.
I don’t want the government to pay for my health insurance.
I don’t want my kids to go to college if I can’t pay for it.”
Republicans are better at security….yeah, when you’re stupid and dead.
9/11 happened on Bush’s Watch!!
Katrina happened on Bush’s Watch!!
On thing that ticks me off is that the MSM portrays NH as being too “elitist” or something to support a Southerner (Edwards)…Well, Edwards is relating to the majority of Americans, the workers, and there is no difference between working families north, south, east, west, except for their accents.
Edwards can win in NH. It just ticks me off when they keep touting why he can’t. May the best person win. The voters will call the shots, hopefully.
Jayt: Yeah. There is a finite number of Fundies, but they make up a huge chunk of the GOP’s voter base. Plus, they’ve been the ones in charge of the GOP’s ground game for nearly three decades now. They can’t win outright nationally, but they can easily win the nomination — or go third-party if they’re denied in a blatantly unfair manner (and really, to stop Huck’s candidacy the RNC sachems will have to act in a blatantly unfair manner).
My understanding is an hour and a half of the Rs then the same for the Ds although that might be reversed. But I don’t think they’re going to be on the stage together other than at the change over.
“I want America to go to war forever to kill all those terrorists.”
What was it that Mork said recently? That our Number One civil right was the “right to be kept alive”?
I favor Edwards and you can find his positions on his website
His stand on poverty, fair trade, fair wages and healthcare for everyone. His stand for labor and he has the most union endorsements across the country.
Thanks darkine01… I could not find anything either with teh google or on my TeeVee guide station that gave the specifics
I heard that one too…jeesh…
The issue with Huckabee is whether the other religious wing of the Republicans, the conservative Catholics will follow them. NH has a lot more conservative Catholics than Iowa and a lot fewer evangelicals. Without the Catholics, the evangelicals are not even a rump.
PhysioProf: That’s a good question. I can’t think of a single place right now.
Tell ya what:
Hillary, Barack and John supporters: Step up to the plate here and make the best case for your guy or gal. Three hundred words or less. Extra credit given for links to credible information.
I’ll pick the best (in my own view) of each, and then put them up in my Monday evening post (and link back to this thread so folks can see the others).
How ’bout it? Saves me the wear and tear of writing a column Monday. :-)
They can’t win outright nationally, but they can easi*ly win the nomination — or go third-party if they’re denied in a blatantly unfair manner…
I’m good with either scenario…
ABC at 7:00 eastern, if my recollection recollects properly. I’ll check.
When’s the deadline, PW? I like this idea.
be still my heart, yes, france, where they know what the street is for! AND the food is still good and affordable.
And the trick is to do it either without using right-wing talking-point trigger words, or making sure that they are effectively defused.
Remember, the point is to convince voters who traditionally identify as Republican that your favored Dem candidate is the one who is going to best serve their interests.
It says 7P and 6C. That doesn’t make sense.
Me too. It splits the GOP vote rather nicely.
Not only that, but it kills the downticket GOP races. With lots of Republican voters staying home, the Democratic tsunami could be enough to get some mightily progressive people into office.
Breaking: CNN going to cover levee breaks near Fernly {sp?] NV
7PM and 6 Central time
intersting call on cspan this a.m. from a woman in texas who said (i believe i posited this yesterday) that all her repub buddies were thrilled Obama won Iowa. She said repubs in TX are looking for Hil or Obama to get the nomiation because they feel strongly they can beat either one of them (as opposed to, say Edwards). So here’s my thinking, the repugs have something on Obama or Hil, or some false scandal strategy worked out for either of those candidates they’ll wait til later in the election to pull out. Then Blam! case closed for dems. Too late to nominate someone else.
Sorry to rain on the parade, and hope to hell i’m wrong, but past history teaches us not to underestimate Karl and the Gang. (Or is the Karl and the Gange?)
The morning thread of whimsy was a nice umbrella for the rain though. a little reminder of what’s most important in life.
Mommybrain @ 34: I’ll give you all the rest of today to pull it off — or until this thread hits 250 comments, whichever comes first. Will that work?
PhysioProf @ 36: Yup!
Good morning everyone :)
It’s been a great week. Iowan’s (?) show everyone that everyday folks are paying attention, want change and turned out in record numbers.
They proved that ‘colour’ is not an issue and proved that woman are looking for more than ‘a woman’ president. The number of young adults turning out bodes really, really well for the future.
Iowa proved that words do count, not the amount of green you’ve spent. The causus showed that the Re-pugs are drowning in their own bile and they are reaping what they have sown. Great job to all who were involved…big hugs!!
Completely OT, but fun.. These are all really good, BUT ‘The evolution and Twelve Days Debating’ are just brilliant :)
http://myspace.com/thefreedomtoast
JohnEdwards
http://www.johnedwards.com/issues/health-care/
One position is to help provide education for children across the world. THE number one way to lower numbers in prison is early childhood education. To contact children to show that America is not the evil purveyor of war but an agent of good we can cut into the next generation of terrorists.
Well, Debra Bowen is trying, but the San Diego Board of Supervisors (home of Hunter, Issa and Bilbray) are using my tax money to sue her.
SAN DIEGO COUNTY SUES SECRETARY OF STATE BOWEN:
(San Diego does not want to count 10% of the vote in a close election of less than one half of one percent between candidates.)
December 18, 2007 San Diego County filed a complaint against Secretary of State Debra Bowen for allegedly exceeding her authority in cracking down on electronic voting machines.
The suit targets a directive by Bowen that counties using any of four electronic voting systems (including Premier/Diebold) conduct a manual tally of 10 percent of randomly selected precincts if a contest’s margin of victory is less than one-half of 1 percent.
To quote information from an article from the Sacramento Bee:
“We’re objecting based on the fact that it didn’t go through the Legislature, it didn’t go through any kind of regulatory process, and it isn’t really a workable plan,” Seiler said.
This lawsuit has been approved by the San Diego County Board of Supervisors. Other counties are not a party to the lawsuit but conceivably could be affected by its outcome.
Please read the great articles below and the SAE opinion later in this newsletter.
Bowen faces vote lawsuit
Remember, the point is to convince voters who traditionally identify as Republican that your favored Dem candidate is the one who is going to best serve their interests.
You’re joking, right? We don’t need the Pukes this time! Don’t people understand that? After the disaster of last 8 years we don’t need to try to out-puke the Pukes!
That’s what’s driving me crazy about Obama: he’s going for the independent vote to win the nomination, talking about the Soc. Sec. “crisis”, and you know he’s not going to move any farther to the left after he’s nominated!
Stand up for liberal principles before it’s too late! We don’t need a Liebercrat to win this time!
I just donated $50 to Edwards. If Obama wins I’m no longer a Democrat.
Surely you don’t mean that. Hillary is a bloody gooper and obama has been bought and paid for by big pharma and the insurance industry and we Dems want them why?
PS. My candidate will in no way please the goopers.
I think Hillary, Edwards and Obama are all “in it” for another few weeks, though your assessment seems sound. If Edward’s somehow jumps both Obama and Clinton and Hillary is a close second then she (and her campaign) can shift tacks once again. Edwards suddenly becomes the target (like the BCS #1 and #2).
And Edwards also has to worry about an Obama win…after all, he said that he and Obama represent “change”. He has to demonstrate WHY he is the better articulator of that CHANGE than Barack. Edwards came in a distant fourth in the 2004 New Hampshire primary so I don’t think he has a natural constituency in the State. He’s going to have to work hard to distinguish himself from Obama.
BTW I’ve seen several postings on this site that the results of Iowa and NH don’t mean anything regarding the ultimate nominee of the party. After actually looking at the data I found such claims based on rhetorical parsing at best. “Since 1976 the winner of the New Hampshire Democratic Primary, when contested, has only once won the Presidency.” Okay…how many times has a contested Democrat won the Presidency since 1972. Twice? (and Clinton was #2 to near “favorite son” Paul Tsongas). But how many times has the NH winner won the nomination? 6/8 times! Ditto for Iowa…except when there was a favorite son (Harkin) or adjacent farm-belt candidate (Gephardt), the winning candidate actually went on to win the nomination all but once.
So it’s critical that the candidates do well in these primaries or at least “split them” to maintain their candidacies. What happened in Iowa was bad for Hillary, who at least needed to be closer to Obama. Now she’s under pressure in NH. Edwards needs a close #2 at the minimum. A 3rd place showing will likely mean that both leaders would have to make large errors down the road. Clinton might actually survive better if Edwards won and she’s a percentage point behind him, as long as Obama falls way behind.
Some say that New Hampshire can be deadly for candidates…even for the winners (Muskie, Gary Hart). Even LBJ, who won there, decided his victory was so narrow against McCarthy that it meant he wouldn’t win in more liberal states. Harry Truman lost to Estes Kefauver and decided an effort to win a second full term was fruitless. Lots of challengers pack it up after New Hampshire, especially if they lack the money and national support to make a full campaign possible. I think Edwards needs to do well there because of those factors.
But all have strong personalities and will plod on for the next round despite what happens, hoping for a Gary Hart or Muskey-moment.
I heard it too, she said they were practically dancin’ in the streets…
Okay, well, there is no way that the general Repub public could know something we don’t know as to scandal material…it is most likely a racist or sexist reasoning by locally ignorant people.. Rove can cause all kinds of whisper campaigns, and he will, and when he pulls out Jeb or Rick Perry…that’s when to get out the popcorn, because America is not with the far right anymore. The Pukes have so much corruption to be exposed, it isn’t funny….
JMHO.
My boyfriend Elmore works in TeeVee for ESPN just finished the MNF season and moving on to the NBA. He meets people from all over on the crews and the truck drivers who get a lot of wingnut radio driving across the country. Elmore has a great technique to get beyond the Limpball taking points.
He starts with the issues that important to that person…. a family member with health issues…. the quality of the schools that they kids attend… eventually he can get beyond the blahblahblah and to the meat.
Then he uses questions to get them to tell them how these issues affect them. Such as…. bringing in such things as the current cost of the war for the area that person lives. Do you think that the $XXX,XXX,XXX.00 your city’s part of the cost of the Iraq war is worth it? Just think of the new streets, more teachers, go for safety such as police & fire officers.
OR
So what does that person think of the $30,000.00 for every American’s part of the national debt?
Smells like Issa??
are there gatekeepers here
” the point is to convince voters who traditionally identify as Republican that your favored Dem candidate is the one who is going to best serve their interests.”
well ok, i guess that is one approach, but i’d rather have a conversation with them about why in a republic their “interests” are so narrow. I’d rather spend the time talking with them about why what’s good for the commonwealth is good for everyone, including them. That’s the POV of the founders, and the stingy reagan repubs have distorted that beyond recognition and called it compassionate conservatism. INHO that’s the conversation that’s missing in all political debate these days, except maybe by Edwards, Nader, and few others.
I will say that everyone should read Obama’s autobiography, “Dreams from my Father”. That’s what makes him such a compelling candidate, for me. Here is a guy who is about my age, and although he grew up in vastly different circumstances, is of my generation and appears to see things my way on issues like drugs (hands up those who haven’t “experimented” at some time in their lives) and race (content of character, remember that?). I guess what I’m driving at is that he’s the first post-boomer candidate, and doesn’t have any of that baggage (enough with Vietnam, already.) He also has kids who WILL be affected by climate change, so hopefully he’ll take it seriously.
Electing Obama will also send a very clear message to the wider world; Not all Americans are batshit crazy racists and bigots, and majority of the electorate rejects and repudiates the last 20 years of Bush/Clinton dynastic politics. Obama signals that the US is ready to rejoin the community of nations as a mature democracy.
I don’t think that’s 300 words.
In case anyone missed Jonathan Turley on KO the other night, this is beautiful.
i’m a John Edwards supporter. i think he has had the best things to say about economic issues and social issues. he’s focused on the enemies of America, 99% of whom live within our borders and have waaay too much power, politically and economically. he has lead the way on stating his policies and plans.
however, right now i think Barak Obama has a fantastic chance of winning the nomination of the Democratic Party. i think both Edwards and Hillary were hurt pretty badly in Iowa. i think Iowa was more important this time than any previous time because so many candidates of both parties got into the fray so early. Edwards didn’t have the cash but he really put in the time and that should have counted in Iowa. Hillary had the money and the organization but she came out third. both Edwards and Hillary are under the gun. if they change what they are doing now it’s over. if they don’t change what they’re doing it may well be over as well.
i have never seen higher energy and positive vibes than i saw watching the tape of Obama speaking thursday night. the energy came from him and it came from his supporters. this is the kind of phenomena that will energize the American voter like nothing has in a very long time. i don’t know much at all about Obama’s policy plans and who his advisers and cabinet will be but if he takes the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries there will be nothing that can stop him. and i mean he’ll take the whole ball of wax. America will elect him without batting an eye. i hope he already has Secret Service protection.
meanwhile, good luck in New Hampshire, John Edwards. you’re gonna need it.
have i been blocked?
and can we convince these pliticos to drop the “change” thing? I mean
WE ARE LOOKING FOR MORE THAN SPARE CHANGE.
Yup.
Everything the far righters claim the Republican rulers will protect us from has already happened under George Bush’s watch and the watch of the Republican Congress. Republican rule strips your rights and doesn’t make you safer. That includes terrorism, War, the collapsing economy, and the destruction of one of the major cities in the United States of America.
So they should sit on it and spin away.
And lest anyone underestimate the difficulty of this task, here are some of the things I have been hearing from my Republican friends, family, and colleagues:
I have realized two important things about the right-wing meme-machine’s use of the term “liberal”. (1) The diversity of positions within the Democratic Party can be fully characterized as a one-dimensional spectrum of “liberalness”. (2) “Liberalness” is used solely as a pejorative to indicate how much the right-wing meme-machine wants its receptacles to hate a particular Democrat.
My concern is about the general election, i.e. I obviously want the Dem nominee to win. However, both in my real life in NYC and my current one in rural NC, I hear the same mantra repeatedly. Dems tell me they will not vote for HRC or Obama. Repubs want either of them to be the nominee.
I have been particularly surprised to hear professional women of a certain age” in NYC say “no way” about Hillary. Could ignore some of this for awhile because I’ve been a JRE supporter since 2004. However, this is now really beginning to concern me.
Just had a conversation this AM with a friend from childhood….very anti-Bush, but will not vote for Obama or Hillary. Doesn’t trust either one of them to clean up the mess in Washington…..but doesn’t expect Edwards to be the nominee. Said the PTB have too much power and he will never get the nod.
I cannot fathom how as a country we could tolerate the next four years with any of the Republican candidates in the WH. Am beginning to understand more about why Shuster says the Huckster will be the next pres. Not sure the powers in the Rethug party will let him get that far, but now “get” why Shuster said it. Guess there’ll be a market for Gomer Pyle reruns. *g*
my comment was removed from the last thread.
Terrific analysis PW, as per usual, thanks.
Per your comments about turnout, I saw Iowa as a great win for progressives. The Vichy Dems are following, not leading. To me the front burner story is what
NancySpeaker Pelosi does with Bush’sbullsh*tpocket veto. If she doesn’t start holding Bush accountable, I am really going to be angry.I’m still perplexed by CNN’s poll of Iowa caucus goers.
Dem Caucus Vote by Party ID:
Dem Caucus Vote by Ideology:
So, Clinton essentially tied Obama among registered Democrats, but was a distant third among Independents and crossover Republicans. That bad news for her for open primaries like NH. And good news for her regarding closed primaries where only pre-registerd party members get to vote in their respective primaries.
I’m particularly curious why Edwards did so poorly among Liberals and so well among Conservatives.
There are several comments from you on the last thread. Have you refreshed your browser on that page?
Here’s one of my favorite things about this election so far: A close election can be more easily stolen, but when you have a groundswell like the one that’s shaping up, Rethugs will be hard pressed to steal this election in the fall, and they know it! No amount of “Gee, the exit polls don’t seem to be representative of reality,” will account for the differences in the votes.
so, anyone read greenwald in salon this am? Kinda fits into the nightmare scenario nightmare I have been waking up from! And then i just heard obama from nashua.Well, that didn’t help. Ya see,his speech was a flash back to the 60’s. Sure, it was an amazing moment.And then….
Well, As I listened to the O man this am, that thought kept coming up.Scary times are a coming!
He sounds deep South. It can be a dog whistle…
What’s really funny is all the analyses by the Mainstream Journalist were they keep bashing Hillary Clinton about going back to the 90’s is not the future. Were it’s highly and likely Obama will be tied up in things like Black Reparations from the civil war through Islamic differences with a middle name like Hussein is impossible to avoid aiding the Osama Bin Laden terror effort stretching to an infinite negative. Here, Bin Laden can really say they are winning the war, were America hangs Hussein in Iraq, and then Islamic jihad is so great Americans vote a Hussein as a leader. Please and you all must understand I am not trying to be cruel in this scenario. Personally I like Barrack Obama, but the negative are far greater then the positives compared to Hillary. He is a nice guy I wish him the best but its not his time for America.
Were in its most practical real good value America needs to go “ Back to the Future”. Here ,a solid argument can be made by Hillary Clinton that by proven skill and experience America was channeled out of a Bush Recession and war without American life lost. And, into one the most historic economic and cultural times ever developed by Democratic principles.
Undeniably, and actually a turning point in history for economic and cultural advantage for the individual citizens with the promotion and installation of the Internet, America’s educational system has been transposed to a new level and tool with unlimited uses. Moreover, the Internet exploded into the business and commerce areas that changed the way not only America works but way the world works and thinks today. I lived it, in it, watched it grow, there is no Republican ideal that can match it. It is so profound that I’m baffled by those who think Obama has any skill to match that ideal. Frankly I think all those supporters are Republican insurgents promoted to support Obama.
The Clinton team of the Democratic Party composed of selected individuals have shown and delivered proven skill in defending the Constitution, and promoting the general welfare for the common good during this time it was the leadership of the Clinton administration. The Problem with the Republicans is that in a second chance with Hillary, she won’t be as nice to the Republican Party as Bill was. The fact is Republican’s are terrified by the thought of Hillary being President, she will likely expose much of the corruption and address the accountability that is way over due. Obama is fresh, new, and too inexperienced. Obama would likely build a direction by opinions and compromise far too much.
I don’t believe that’s the case, I don’t have a citation right now but I remember reading that Obama spent 3 million more than she did in IA. Also, here’s a nice bang-for-your buck graph of the per vote expenditures of the candidates in IA.
PTB?
Obama/Lieberman 2008 the ticket that can’t lose.
Jo6pac
Edwards fan myself
So if this woman was so much in the know about the Republican plans then why would she be showing her cards? All the scandals the Pugs have are already out there. They’ve been working “Lesbo” Hillary for decades. ..originally with Janet Reno and now with some beautiful Iranian-American aide (better photo play in the pulp media, I guess). They have used Obama Muhammed Barack for the last year. And then there are the Edwards’ “secret affaire” nudge-nudge wink-wink stuff.
I refuse to let what filth the Republicans are going to use to direct who I will support for my President…I am no longer going to be driven by THEIR fears and hate and racism or sexism. I find it shocking that people who are progressives state that they will not vote for someone because they can’t attract Republican racist or sexist votes! Support your candidate because they can successfully bring forth the policies you want through the crappy system we have….I want a strong successful President who can generate change.
I’m over this whole process and have been for a very long time. Iowa is one state, there are 49 others that are thrown to wind. I will vote for whoever the Democratic presidential candidate is, however since I don’t have a say in who the nominee will be, I’m going to focus on the Congressional races.
Here’s an intersting tidbit I found yesterday. As a NJ resident I’m not quite sure how I feel about this or whether or not it will ever become relevant but I thought I would share the link.
NJ Nears Undermining Electoral College
TRENTON, N.J. (AP) — New Jersey is close to entering a compact that would eliminate the power of the Electoral College to choose a president if enough states endorse the idea.
The state Senate voted Thursday to approve delivering the state’s 15 electoral votes for president to the winner of the national popular vote. The Assembly approved the measure in December and needs Gov. Jon S. Corzine’s signature to become law.
“The bill is subject to a thorough review, but Gov. Corzine has long been a supporter of this concept,” Corzine spokesman Jim Gardner said.
Ah ha. Thanks. That never crossed my mind. (And it should have.)
Oy!
The registration process for the caucus thingy was a little “open”…you could be registered in any party and change your registration for that particular day only (if you wanted to), then you could group up with a lesser candidate and use your body count to throw that vote over to another candidate and effect (yes, I mean effect)..the outcome of the caucus…so I say take the results with a grain of salt in this political climate. Just sayin’.
Mr. Solai says that everyone at his workplace is talking positively about Obama. I’m for Edwards but Obama has powerful oratorical skills. That may carry him. Imagine if you didn’t follow the issues as closely as we do. All those millions of voters that tune in starting about now. Superficially. Obama’s going to get those people. JMHO.
It’s the “powers that be” — those who hold the real power over politicians, media etc. As an example, think Jack Welch, then CEO of GE interceding with the broadcasters to call the 2004 election for Dubya on election night.
It’s kind of the cabal (some behind the scenes) who wield inordinate, and often hidden, power in our society. Another example — Opus Dei.
Barack Hussein Obama. (Dang, I get to correct the cinnamonape!!)
I am not in any way shape or form suggesting that Democratic candidates take a “bipartisan” approach. As I have stated before, the PhysioProf official policy on bipartisanship is as follows:
What I am suggesting is that there are better and worse ways of convincing non-batshit-insane Republican
that a particular Democratic candidate is likely to advance what those voters see as their interests. This has nothing to do with candidates tailoring their positions to appeal to Republican voters.
The fact of the matter is that all non-batshit-insane American citizens desire economic, social, and geopolitical security for themselves, their families, and their friends. The reason we are Democrats is because we believe that electing Democrats provides the greatest likelihood of achieving those things. Convincing individual Republican-identifying voters of this–and that electing a particular Democratic Presidential candidate provides the greatest likelihood of acheiving these things–has
to do with “bipartisanship” or dilution of any Democrat’s progressive convictions.
The Godfather, Henry K. There is a letter where he is being asked basically okay Nixon….it’s in the Nixon archives…He’s still behind everything, and he’s advising one of the candidates, but I can’t remember which one.
yeah, except i watched it and my spirits wilted as the piece progressed. looks like it’ll wither on the vine, much is the pity. cause as he said this evidence exceeds that which instigated the watergate investigation by miles. god are we in bad shape. the justice dept investigates itself? sure
I’d like to hear who the candidates would like on their cabinets…
I did miss it. Much appreciated.
EDIT! WANT!
posted this downstairs a few but more appropriate on this thread;
DON’T DO IT BILL
this will get epu’d and be on point sometime today but I can’t wait and will repost later, but check this out because this is poetic justice for the clintons;
william jefferson clinton, you did this to yourself, you could have prevented the consolidation of media, you could have reinstituted the fairness doctrine, and you could have stopped playing favorites with media moguls
this is your own doing
now, if you want to go negative on obama, you are gonna help edwards not your wife
let it go, let your wife campaign on her record and her vision, if someone is going to go after obama it can’t be your camp if you want your wife to be the candidate
have no idea what that meant. sorry
Ah. Thanks.
Ah, I getcha. I agree, there are a number of disaffected goopers.
Somewhat redundant!
Well according to kittykitty’s logic they must want Edward’s to win since they feel he is the least likely to win in the General election…being the most liberal and they have some secret scandal on him ;-)
My take. Edward’s is a populist…and he struck home with some very conservative people worried about the farm economy in Iowa. These folks might be hearing the same things from “city folk” Clinton and Barack but would rather believe it from a guy who sounds a bit like a down-home country boy. These are folks who feel that the Repugs have abandoned them…they are voting their pocket-books…but they still have some baggage voting for a woman or a black, especially when Edwards wears plaid and starts talking about his Daddy. Neither Hillary nor Obama has a similar message that can resonate.
you might have made a post that triggered automatic filters, don’t know but a mod will be able to tell you
I’m glad to see the Democrats are out in front with the message concerning turnout, and how this is positioning the party for strength as the Republican part implodes.
I was shocked by the results from my non scientific survey at art openings last night.
Several people said they could vote for anyone, EXCEPT Hillary. No one expressed any enthusiasm for Hillary, and one person said they had seen an “Anyone but Hillary 2008″ bumper sticker.
While many said they like John Edwards, it was Barack Obama that received the most admiration. His speechifying skills, his Kumbaya politics of hope as opposed to Edwards politics of confrontation, his ability to bring in new voters, were cited as examples of his appeal.
I’m still planning on supporting John Edwards at our 2/5/08 caucus, but will gladly support Obama if he is the nominee.
my comment about iran contra was removed from the last thread
I hearing that everywhere I go. And am very surprised by the vehemence with which it’s said. It saddens me.
May be a weak metaphor in general, especially during the NFL playoffs, but this came to mind…
If you think life is about beating the other team, then vote Republican. If you think life is about everyone playing their best game, then vote Democrat.
Absolutely. And whose brilliant idea was it to have her up on the stage with Billy Boy on one side and Albright on the other? Bridge to the 20th century, indeed. What is this, the Wars of the Roses?
So, it sounds like Obama has the “Sprockets” vote locked up.
From American Heritage Dict
Liberal: 1. having, expressing, or following social or political views that favor non-revolutionary progress and reform. 2. Having , expressing, or following views or policies that favor the freedom of individuals to act or express themselves in a manner of their own choosing. 3. Of, relating to, or characteristic of representattional forms of government. 5. Tolerant of the ideas or behavior of others. 8. (Obsolete) Permissible or appropriate for a free man.
and the oxford dict def. is even better.
I wrote a piece to my local paper about this in the last election cycle.
PhysioProf: I’d satrt with this definition with your repub pals. I thik it might give them the idea that repug framing is way off base and maybe they’ll begin to question the premise now and again.
We’re likely gonna be voting on something similar here in California. It works around the Constitution by committing the State Electors to the person who wins the majority of the votes cast in the General Election. But that only happens if States with a majority of Electors pass the law. Thus it obviates the need for a Constitutional Amendment to pass.
But one question, what if a state drops out…will it revert?
John Edwards needs to change his stump speech from ‘these are the bad things that are happening’ to ‘imagine a country where these good things are happening’. Just tweak it a little. I want badly for him to succeed.
Don’t say ****, ******, or ***.
It seems I have the reverse problem: I don’t want to vote for someone whose policies I don’t really believe in just because she’s a woman. I don’t want to vote for someone who I consider a “babe in the political woods,” still in the infancy of his career just because he’s half black. I don’t want to use my vote to make a point; I want to help elect the best president we can find. Unfortunately, I don’t think our best will be running, but I do feel that John Edwards fills the bill on policies. I worry that Barack has his head so much in the air that he won’t recognize the snow job the corporatists will bring to bear, kinda like he didn’t see that real estate deal with that developer coming, even though it’s been done many times before. The way I see it, these people are really sophisticated and many have been dealing with politicians for decades. I’m just not sure Obama’s ready for that.
My elderly mother watches a lot of television. We keep discussing the current recurring theme it represents in our culture…it is about the winning. Look at all these damnable reality shows.
They all come down to a winner. It’s disgusting.
My nephews cannot even enjoy watching the NFL anymore. All they care about is who will win their fantasy league.
i hope you’ll pardon my skepticism, but these guys will come up with a new tactic. my guess is they alrady have. i’m not trying to be a downer, i’m just sayin, let’s be smarter this time. like bein a good detective, soemtimes you gotta get into the head of the villain and anticipate his moves.
Keep in mind that liberals are more concentrated in the cities where Obama and Clinton advertising dollars had more effect, and conservatives are more in the rural areas where Edwards had a stronger organization. I’m not saying their messages didn’t have an effect, but I’d bet a good part of it is geography.
now, don’t everybody jump on me here – I’m just thinking out loud… IF Clinton should win the nomination AND she offered Obama the VP, would he take it?
in a purely clinical way, wouldn’t that combine “experience” and “hope”?
it certainly would be the most different looking ticket ever…
I really like the idea of using the dictionary definition of liberal to all those (my 2 sons ..ugh) who accuse me of being too liberal. And they almost spit ‘liberal’ out.
Maybe ..sigh.. they still need some re-education at 36 and 40. Ya think?
Don’t forget those Mexican trucks throught the border without any inspection! Do you know how to WMD hidden in there some where just waiting to add more misery to the people?? Oh and by the way booshco is technically is violating the newly passed law!!
“We started this program before the law was signed” Ha just another way to thumb their noses at congress!!
Barak pitches abstract for the sake of change, change because folks are uncomfortable with the status quo. Edwards blames specific groups for what’s wrong with the status quo and acknowledges that it will be necessary to fight them to accomplish any change. Quite different messages. And Barak’s vagueness (some say shallowness) seems to be carrying the day. Hmmmm.
That has gotta change!! We need to make consertive a swear word so the FCC can ban it from the airways!
Well said Ann.
My tendency is to give up on “liberal”, and use the term “progressive”. Kind of like giving up on the name “Adolf” in the second half of the 20th century.
Of course they will, but we can’t avoid it by trying to pick a candidate they are less able to attack. That was supposed to be part of the rationale with Kerry last time, and that part worked out disastrously.
Both.
This is a run-down on reputations of the candidates’ advisors’. I don’t know how accurate it is, but if it is…it is pretty bad. From Democracy Now:
http://www.democracynow.org/20….._linked_us
Hillary is okay, but my feelings for her are lukewarm — I am SO not looking forward to four years of the Hill ‘n’ Bill show, part deux.
I really like Edwards message, but have finally figured out what is ‘off’ about him — his speechifying skills are pedestrian, and honed on his closing arguments to juries. Obama, on the other hand, soars with the angels when he is ‘on’ — that, and his “we are all in this together, let’s pull together” approach is what fires up his supporters.
I’m just sayin’, how good will Barack be at this;and how good will Edwards and Hillary be?
Oh by the good morning all. The next storm is just starting to roll in here, spitting rain with up 2 inches to come as the day progresses.
My choice for coffee is Peets (Local here in the bay area)the roast all thier coffee nice and dark, this AM I am having Sumtra oh goodie!
Hillary has the most direct experience fighting this particular villain.
Somebody was saying that it looks like ‘they’ are going to run with the current Re-pug candidates and when they completely crash and burn, float Bloomburg and ‘friends’ as ‘Independents’, causing Conservative/re-pugs who were thinking of *gasp* actually voting for a ‘DEM, to grab hold of the ‘life-line’. Therefore saving the day for the ‘conservative/darkside’ Agenda…It’s all a chess game…
THIS is way cool!! good news, keep posted!
I want a candidate who will fight…. it was why I love Howard Dean…. and Edwards because they are willing to get into the ring and do battle.
Hope, smope… I want someone to go to the mat for my civil rights, to get me universal healthcare and work on a better world for my kids and grandkids.
Yeah, Peets is good. I wish we had Peets stores in NYC. We do have a great local coffee shop called “Oren’s”, with a few locations in Manhattan.
We also have a few “Juan Valdez” coffee shops. Anyone ever been to one?
Has anyone seen Teddy this morning?
Apparently Obama has been clearer lately that he’s talking about coming together with (sane) Republican voters more than Republican politicians, and acknowledging that we’re going to have to deal with insurance and pharma companies as an obstacle to fixing healthcare. (I don’t have a link handy, but I’ll see if I can find one.)
In other words, he’s stealing Edwards positions just like Clinton has been for months. I’d rather Edwards wins, but even if not, I still think it’s a good thing if his positions do.
I don’t know if this has been discussed, but I just got an e-mail from the Edwards campaign that characterizes the Iowa outcome as follows:
I have to say you appear to be buying into the false “experience” meme. Cheney has experience. So does Rumsfeld. Obama is in his mid-forties. He’s not a kid. As Michelle Obama has said, they’re still young enough to remember what it’s like to be buying your first condo and struggling to pay the bills. Clinton and Edwards? Not so much.
Oddly enough, my problem with her is, I think she’s one of ‘em. I think she’s taken the old adage, “If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em!” to heart. She’s joined their ranks, she operates on their money, she gives them a lot of deference. She’ll sit at their table, and although they won’t be pulling any wool over her eyes, I fear she’ll deal away a lot to stay in the good graces of her financiers.
I’m not a fan of the electoral college, and I’m also not a fan of circumventing the Constitution. I think this could set a dangerous precedent. This is very new to me so I can’t say for sure that I approve of it.
Obama is a Lieberman protege. IMHO, we don’t need a Liebercrat in the White House.
Edwards would be excellent at this. People tend to focus on his emotional appeals to juries for this success as a trial attorney. I think of him more as a Patrick Fitzgerld type — no one was ever better prepared in a courtroom.
You do that by anticipating and outworking your competition. I also trust John to surround himself with the best people to do their jobs and to leave ego/”connections” out of the process.
Have always sumised that Edwards and Corzine both left the Senate because they would not be toadies up the ladder to the likes of Harry Reid. They quickly figured out they couldn’t make a real difference in that arena w/o many years in and w/o playing those games.
I don’t base my predictions about what a candidate will do when President very much on what they say to become President. Edwards has spent a huge amount of time doing battle with large corporations; Obama, not so much.
Yeah, but how successfully? I see a lot of those fights as rearguard actions, fighting to retreat as little as possible, and I’m not sure that teaches you how to advance against them.
Phoenix woman, each state is different, and does not necessarily reflect what the rest of the nation thinks. I’m from Missouri, and actually live in a medium-sized city–yet the majority here are religious Republicans who are pro-Bush. Two-thirds in my area voted against gay interests when it came amendment time–thank heavens areas like St. Louis and KC got us Claire McCaskill, stem cell research, and are more pro-gay. I have a friend who lived in Cedar Rapids for a lengthy period of time. She said the people there are typically traditionalists who have a more conservative view of women in society. I understand the Clinton camp knew Iowa was going to be a tough sell before they ever ventured in. My point, please don’t assume the rest of the country will vote as Iowa. I understand that there was only a percentage point difference between Obama and Hillary amongst Democratic voters. What I would like to see, is more understanding of where Obama stands. He’s against the Kyl-Lieberman bill, but didn’t VOTE against it. Is he FOR women’s abortion rights? I don’t know. He never mentions it, as he votes “Present” on such sticky subjects. No interviewer ever brings that up. I’ve only seen one reporter ask him why he was the only state senator in Illinois to vote against a woman’s right to have the records sealed in court after she was sexually assaulted. When asked about the matter, he mumbled, and explained, well, the bill probably wasn’t written right. I don’t know what his answer was, frankly. –And I don’t think he did either. I understand his voting record is quite similar to Hillary’s, so I don’t see the “Change” candidate except for his skin being black. From what I’ve read, his voting record only differs when it came to the confirming Gen. Casey. Obama voted FOR him. Hillary voted AGAINST him. Hillary did her homework and found out he was incompetent (does that sound familiar?), and not as knowledgeable about matters he should have been.
I was thinking of the “villian” in this particular context as “the Republican party”.
Hell, just the fact that they recognize that they will have to fight is enough to put them at the top of my list. Obama thinks he can schmooze and bamboozle the professionals. My opinion, he’s living in a fool’s paradise!
Isn’t that Maxwell house coffee!! I f you like Peets it is avaliable on the internet!!! http://www.peets.com/peetniks/…..0000013152
Get to it Peets is far better than sSarbucks or is that starfucks??
nonono that’s not what i said at all. Repugs know dems and indies have trouble with Hil, that both she and Obama may have skeletons or fake skeletons as yet unrevealed, and that Edwards appeal is limited. so… leaves room for a repug win? i dunno.. just a gut feeling. why else would the texans be rejoicing? why else send so many repug caucusers to obama votes? hey, i’m not saying i know what’s up, jsut that something IS, or may be, and that it’s smart to try and anticipate these slimers in advance. Aren’t you tired of being so far behind the dirty tricks curve?
Here is the issue to throw at the Pukes – they are most afraid of being labeled as pro-torture:
Pro-Torture
Pro-Torture
Pro-Torture
For years I have been telling people how much I dislike Hillary Clinton. Then she finished poorly in Iowa and I was oddly… disappointed. Perhaps I’m more invested in her than I thought.
I agree and would like someone who is more definite about what he believes. Seems to me he has been “present” or just plain absent for too many votes that might make take a stand on something. I believe we will have a difficult time winning if Obama is the nominee.
My problem is that ther are a lot of people who think the Clintons are the devil incarnated and will never vote for a Clinton
Can Obama cash the check that his oratory skills write? I doubt he can.
If not, the Democratic party will have lost a golden opportunity to restablish itself as the majority party, and will alienate all the people who are being brought into the fold. The Republicans are splintering and falling apart, let’s not hand them the tools to build themselves back up.
As I diary over at KOS had as a title, I don’t need a candidate to hope for me, I need one to fight for me.
well, they were salivating at the lips when they thought they would get to campaign against Hillary
I think they bit off more then they could chew and that she was not as unelectable as they were led to believe
so now they are counting on prejudice against blacks as their real hope, they want Obama
Pro-war
Pro-torture
Pro-domestic spying
Pro-rich, white, male leaders
I agree, but I don’t discount it either. I don’t worry a whole lot about the details of their policy proposals, because none of that stuff survives first contact with the legislative process. But on the broader themes they talk about, I trust them more, especially the ones they find to be successful as they go along, because I do believe that most of them (the Dems, anyway) actually want to serve the country, and those represent their getting a sense of what resonates with people.
Hey Mill.. I read that over there and I am right there with you!!
I like Edwards there is just something about him that appeals to my sense of what we need in a leader to reset the sails and change to a different tack for this country!
couldn’t agree more.
The main thing is to make sure that the Neocon/Neofacist element is gone and banned forever from the government of this country…hopefully convicted of everything on Hugh’s list and more…
I wish Rethugs were all I thought we have to worry about. I was thinking of the “villain” as the corporatists, the ones that hire the lobbyists, the ones who have been keeping the Rethugs in power low these many years. You know, the guys that sat at a table with Cheney and negotiated a favorable energy policy…for themselves.
Bottom line with Hillary; she voted for the AUMF, and hasn’t made any attempt to repudiate or apologise for enabling Cheney’s war. I’ll back her over any republican, but in the full knowledge that her “experience” amounts to 15 years of being a DC insider. HRC=more of the same.
Just a quick Granite State update.
Much buzz about the NH Democrats 100 Dinner(a few miles from my house).
Obama clearly has the Joe-mentum now.
Latest polling shows both Sen. Clinton and Sen. McCain faltering. McCain is down 2% and Sen. Clinton is now losing her once vaunted inevitability.
NH’s Sec. of State is predicting an up to 80% voter turnout on Tuesdays primary….This will be helped by the weather which may hit 60 degrees.
Look for Ron Paul to keep sneaking up in the polls and for a collapse of anything for Freddie “Ahm skippin’NH” Thompson.
-G
America will get the leader it deserves when it decides to do more than wade in the shallow political waters. When it decides to erect a diving board and give the republic its full attention.
No giving up. take it back.
I like Edwards because he calls a Neocon a Neocon. He’s not mincing words. He’s serious, and that is why he is so despised by the neocon enablers.
Obama’s “mentor” squicks me right out. I’ll vote for Edwards.
I think they’re going to find a lot of that on our side. *g*
One thing to keep in mind when Repubs talk about how easy a candidate will be to demonize or beat — they’re not running against an incumbent here. Just knocking down the Dem won’t be enough, they have to convince people to vote Republican, and they have an incredibly weak field. Even Republicans don’t like any of them much.
So they can talk all they want about which of our candidates they can undermine and get people to hate, but we can do the same about any of theirs, and without lying or cheating, either.
I am a proud Liberal and believe that all should try and make sure we take care of everyone in this country through good and sound social services. Make sure our schools are brought back to where they actually produce young well educated adults.
But when it comes to our constitution I am a rabid conservative!! Don’t fuck with our constitution!!
An Obama victory for the Democrats will rip open the scab of what remains of white America’s bigotry.
The choices between the two parties will be stark as the raving, foaming, rabid racists pull out all of the stops. The venom they were planning for Sen. Clinton will be poured like acid on Obama.
It may very well be the death-knell for the GOP because America’s have changed so dramatically.
-G
Well Clinton has done something I approve of – she picked up Dixie Chicks “Ready to Run” last night as a campaign song…
I do so love Natalie Maines in her slighty more punky incarnation… and those “girls” make me smile…
According to Zogby, Hillary is now just 4-5 points ahead of Obama.
I agree with your general point completely; I was speaking more narrowly.
Hey gang,
It’s interesting (trying not to be crass) but Obama looks like change and talks about change, but his career is decidedly not about change. It’s about career. HRC is status quo, as everyone here points out regularly.
Edwards looks the same as most presidential candidates of the past, but stands for more progressive values.
I also wonder if Edwards couldn’t activate a very strong lawyer vote/endorsement from those who are sick of Bushco trampling on the rule of law and the Constitution. I mean, as an adjunct strategy.
Just my two cents.
I favor Edwards, but down to his last few bullets. His best chance in South Carolina- where Obama figures to be very strong also. If it gets to Super Tuesday and he hasn’t had some WINS- not just second place finishes- he’s toast.
Super Tuesday will tell the tale if it’s not all over sooner- and it will take millions to compete on that day.
Just the fact the Edwards doesn’t take lobbyist’s money tells me where his allegiance is.
I forgot the link to that KOS Diary
I don’t need a candidate to hope for me, I need one to fight for me
And when I get the trial lawyer talking point thrown at me, I point out that if the person who spewing it, or their family was injured to negligence or deceit, they’d be happy to have a trial lawyer on their side.
At least with HRC, she stands up for her vote. I find it difficult to think Obama is so wonderfully anti-invasion and occupation when he turns around and picks one of the biggest war mongers in the Senate as his “mentor” two years into the war. If he were truly anti-war, there are a large contingent of Senators he could have chosen as his mentor that would have been in line with the supposed anti-war beliefs
We need someone who’s not going to let Bush Administration bygones be bygones when we win. That’ll be tough, because the accusations of “partisanship” from the Beltway press and the wingnut machine will be unbelievably intense, but all the crimes need to be exposed and prosecuted.
That’s another reason why I’m working for Edwards.
Ding.
Wouldn’t be nice if everyone focused on what is best for the national interest and what the country needs right now, rather than on gamesmanship and how we can “get our guy in the WH” so we can control power for our own use?
Do you know if all of the Obama supporters are actual New Hampshireites?
I suppose that absentee ballots are already in the mail for many of the primaries- and many of them have already been filled out and returned. The absentee ballot issue changes a lot about elections and is inadequately explored in my opinion.
I am a lawyer, so I like the sound of what you suggest. I’m afraid, however, that there are not many non-lawyer American voters who would be positively inspired by a lawyers’ endorsement.
Don’t lose sight of the fact that if Edwards runs in the general, the “fake workingman; uber-wealthy plaintiffs’ lawyer; frivolous lawsuit” drum is going to be pounded.
It will be all over after super Tuesday. I can’t wait. It makes me nervous just to think about it. I am very concerned about Obama. Hillary has no secrets left, Edwards doesn’t seem to ever have had any, but Obama is going to be savaged about his race, his schooling, his religion, etc. It could get so ugly and our country doesn’t need that at this time.
now THAT would be an interesting turn of events.
I love those kinds of snappy one-liners. Thanks.
Bork. Yale Club. QED.
I hope the Iowa caucus IS indicative of the fact that whoever wins the GOP nomination is going to get emphatically buried in the general election.
I like to ask if they know what a “trial” lawyer is. The GOP has been trying to push this idea that only trial lawyers are bad (because they tend to support Democrats and make trouble for big business.) However, it never gets a lot of traction with anybody but wingnuts because people in general don’t tell jokes about trial lawyers, they tell jokes about lawyers. Once the GOP tries to push beyond that to “corporate lawyers=good, trial lawyers=evil” it goes nowhere.
Ah but as we all know, IOKIYAR
I couldn’t agree more!! The corporatist are afraid of him! He will make them actually contribute to the good of the nation not just the rich fucks who only care about there $$$ Some times we could excommunicate them and through them out of the country. Use rendition to drop them into some back water 3rd world country and put them on the no fly list so they can’t get back in!!
i don’t believe MSM will touch Edwards with closet skeletons if there are any no matter what happens. His wife engenders enormous empathy, as she should. I can’t imagine doing what she’s doing. Tremendous character if you ask me. rare.
I’m with you there, dakine01 – she will stand up for her decisions… I think she is used to not being the “popular kid”… Obama’s another one who seems to me to need to be loved (much like Bill – which bothers me).
I am a non-lawyer type. But I like Edwards. Perhaps what’s needed is a good trial lawyer as president. Edwards fits the bill. I think. For many reasons.
You’re welcome. It sums it up for me.
Oh! I thought you were a prof! *g*
Well, yes, an endorsement by lawyers probably is not that inspiring to the rest of the citizenry. HOWEVER, it could be a nice sized bloc of votes. (think of how many there are!)
Plus, I think it’s an asset myself, given the criminals who are in the WH now. Who better to muck out the stalls?
I’m not sure what you’re referring to, can you please explain?
Just to add to what you said: I think this is a winnable debate. All one has to is throw the DOJ scandal at their faces to show how important lawyers are to the fiber of society. Shocking, I know!
I could be biased. I’m married to a lawyer. ;)
Romney has now jumped on the Change bandwagon. Change is not foreign to Mitt–as a changeling…
It’s already starting. Glenzilla this morning:
My wild ass guess- it will be Hillary and McCain come November.
At this point, policy differencies between Edwards, Clinton and Obama are not substantially affecting the polls; it’s about their style and how people imagine this will define them as President.
Edwards is confrontational; trial lawyer, chip on his shoulder, backed by many unions who are also confrontational; it will be in your face, our way or the highway for 4 (more) years.
Clinton is a consumate politician, she looks, sounds, acts like a politician. Everything she does reeks of political compromise, what’s best for her and unfortunately she is not a leader. She relies on too many people around her, including her husband, to define who she is and therefore comes across, even after all these years, like we still don’t know her. We don’t know her as she doesn’t want us to know her and because of that, we don’t trust her. We don’t trust them current administration, so it will be another 4 years of mistrust.
Obama rhetoric about change and hope resonates with people because it sounds and feels real based upon his background and success in life to date; we can somehow imagine what life may be like in the future with him as President. He is smart and people admire his courage, and that personal courage is what has always defined Americans, and thus America. Can he do everthing he says, we might get a chance to see? But I think many Americans are willing to give him that chance.
Judge Bork, the esteemed jurist who so opposes “frivolous” lawsuits and thinks that folks need to take personal responsibility for whatever befalls them, sued the Yale Club for $1M or so in damages after he fell climbing stairs I believe it was. Grabbed a loose railing IIRC.
And now the finger pointing has begun in the Clinton camp. Many say it’s Mark Penn’s fault. Others say it’s this or that persons fault. Hey. Did you ever think that there is an itty-bitty possibility that it was the candidate’s short comings which are responsible for the failure?
Thanks for making that point. It is my experience that die-hard racists tend to be older people-50 & up. I have friends who are my age (40’s) who have kids in college. Think about that. I’ve found that most people in that age group are much less likely to be bigots and homophobes than their parents & grandparents. These young people will be voting in their first election. If the GOP decides to go for the racist vote, they might find their dog-whistles being heard by fewer & fewer people.
And Obama is still talking about being non-partisan. Blegh ! They’re all speaking in NH
now. Romney on immigration – do the people in NH have a problem with the border?
Jonah figures he’ll be gang raped by angry african americans if Obama loses- pathetic.
Sheesh!
How about the sane segment of society unraveling because of the nutcase in the WH now?
Ahmen to that.
Ah yes, a dyed in the wool hypocrite. No wonder he’s so popular with that crowd. I didn’t know about that. Thanks.
Yeah, never mind the yahoos we have “wilding” in the WH and over in Iraq (BW).
Who showed up in Iowa?
Young voters, indies, and fundies.. that may be an important trend.
Now is the time for those who love the constitution to speak up or forever hold their piece.
And as to you Sen. Obama: as it stands now, you will not be getting our vote in the primary.
Loo Hoo,
NH really does take its voting and elections quite seriously.
Obama put about 8,000 people into a Manchester arena a few weeks ago(with the help of Oprah).
It is my impression that the Iowa caucuses broke the damn and have caused many people who were on the fence to break towards Sen. Obama. Plus the fact that Dodd and Biden have departed the scene and left more voters open for pick-ups.
-G
-G
I don’t disagree with you, and I won’t defend his association with LieberLiar. Honestly, though, do you really think HRC would be the better candidate or President?
YEP !
The diehard Democrats also showed up too.
-G
Did Iowa kill Rudy? Hope so!
Ah shit the sky just opened up… so much for cleaning up after yesterdays crap!! Hope Suz got her power back!! Has anyone talked to her today??
Yes I do. She at least takes stands. Obama has made too many “present” votes in his career and ducked too many hard issues by waiting to see the wind blowing before speaking.
Yep. My thoughts exactly.
NH. No to Obama and no to Clinton! Please.
Lawyer and Prof. Currently much more the latter than the former.
yes.
What I want you to see is the contrast…. visual contrast…
Edwards and McCain on a debate stage…
54 yr old man who worked his ass off to build a fortune AND a 71 yr old geezer who married into a fortune and divorced the first wife
There are three dems who are still alive- and perhaps five goopers. From now on it’s a war of attrition- who will drop out first? It’s still a very large gooper field. Rudy, Mitt, the Huckster, McCain, and even Paul are still alive. If Paul drops- who benefits?
Sounds GOOD!
He hopes, more like.
Hillary’s demographics: lower- and lower-middle class women of all ages (Oprah’s base), which she carried in Iowa; Obama’s demo: middle- and upper-middle-class educated, professional, mostly white women (Hill’s cohort), which he carried in Iowa; young generation–under 39, which he also carried in Iowa.
We’ll see how all this transports to NH.
Icanhascloneburgers
OK, NH will hand a significant victory to Obama. It will also leave McCain and Romney in a death match and will leave Huckabee and Paul to live on to fight another day.
-G
Reagan proved that divorce doesn’t matter.
I’m convinced that neither Obama nor Clinton would prosecute. Edwards hasn’t said, but he’s visibly the only one angry enough to go for it. I’d like to see all of the candidates asked the following question:
Rudy’s been dead since before Iowa, he just doesn’t know it yet. (Kind of appropriate for a guy who looks like Nosferatu…)
As to J. Edwards and Sen. Clinton, I just don’t know. It is likely to wound Hillary heavily…
-G
Gotta love it. Many are saying in the Clinton campaign that Mark Penn is responsible for the Iowa disaster. They are telling each other that it’s all Penn’s fault because he didn’t recoginze that Americans want change. Rubbish. It’s big brain HRC’s fault. For good or bad, the buck stops with all the candidates. Period.
Edwards
Edwards
Edwards
I really don’t have a good gut felling about the rest way to much baggage with the others.
Besides I feel with Edwards we will get a president who will follow the constitution and make the corporatist toe the line!! And maybe strat paying their fair share in taxes like the rest of us peons.
GWB was elected by peoples good feelings for him. And we all know how that has turned out. I’m worried that the same good feelings for Obama will rule the day as well. If elected, I think he will be rolled by the Repug’s who can’t wait to play their special kind of bi-partisanship so beautifully played by Reid and Pelosi. Then we’ll have a generation of young people becoming cynical. I think many of us support Edwards because we temper emotion with intellect.
And as I said in a thread yesterday: Hillary has to go for broke. What has she got to lose? If she doesn’t go for broke she’ll lose. If she goes for broke, she might lose. Which would you choose? She’s gonna go down fighting hard. The Clinton legacy is at stake.
I’m still hoping for a late surge for Dunkin Hunter. America needs an uptight, grumpy warmonger.
-G
Oh, by the way, I think the Supreme Court, and a rotten secretary of state in Ohio with help from unaudited voting machines actually “won” Bush his elections.
In Iowa, during the caucus(cauci?), Edwards had a 9-point lead until they started the second choice stuff and shifting people around. FWIW.
That may be the outcome. But we in this house do not recognize Obama as the voice for cahnge. Or for that matter we don’t view this senator as a “rock star” either. ;0)
If Obama gets elected, he’d better pray that the congressional GOP gets routed so severely that they will be defanged, stunned and in a fetal position long enough to get his sea legs under him.
-G
Obama in our view is Hillary-lite.
LS
Do you have a link for that? Is that number actually recorded anywhere?
LS were you the person who posted the first round results yesterday? I contacted the Iowa Caucus to get verification and they sent me an email just saying “We don’t give out our first round results”. There has been no response to my 2nd email asking “Why not?”.
Huckabee is counting on McCain to knock out the Mormon in NH, so that he (Huckabee) can kick McCain’s ass in NC…
Don’t disagree but I am just not sure if enough other voters think it is the best alternative.
I’m surprised. Why anyone would want 9 months of general election that will be nothing but the GOP’s media surrogates droning on and on about Monicagate, Whitewater, Vince Foster, that other woman Bill was supposed to have porked, her laugh, her voice, her cleavage, her pantsuits, etc, etc, is beyond me. Personally I’d like the debate to be a bit more substantial. You know, issues.
Confrontational isn’t the same thing as “my way or the highway.” It doesn’t mean you don’t compromise, just that compromise is a step in the process, rather than a starting point.
Compromising with people who don’t compromise and don’t negotiate in good faith is what has kept us lurching to the right when the GOP controls enough of government, and creeping to the right when they don’t.
I meant SC…
There was a running thing going on in the thread that night, I think Selise was posting the changing figures in the comments…I’m sure it is all still there…
And watch Edwards attack Obama tonight. Hill will also go after him. Obama now has a target on his back…
Good question. The only other candidate that is attacking and fighting against the status quo is Edwards. Hmmmmmmm!!
And with Obama we get nine months of “Hussein” and “madrassa” and whatever other racist/religious bigotry they can throw up. And with Edwards we get “trial lawyers are bad” and “how can he care for the poor and live in a 22k square foot house” and whatever other gibberish they can invent.
It’s going to be nonsense of one type or another no matter who the candidate is. Ya just gots to pick yer pizen.
Obama’s political formative years were undertaken under the tutelage of his mentor, Professor J. Lieberman. Ask youself: Do you think Joe Lieberman is smiling right about now?
You mean like the Swiftboaters? Face it, the basic identity of who is nominated isn’t going to determine whether the campaign is about crap, only how well they fight it off.
Here you will find the results in the thread as it happened…it was Siun who posted the “first” official results….Edwards was leading at 48%..:
http://firedoglake.com/2008/01…../#comments
my thoughts exactly…
Link please. Thanks in advance.
Agreed. I do believe that if HRC is the nominee, it will drive up GOP turnout, which could hurt Dems further down the ticket.
I saw a lead for Edwards in the early reporting, but that wasn’t first-round voting. Pach said it was probably because the rural precincts are smaller, and get final results faster, and that was where Edwards had an advantage.
Although I support Edwards, have a serious question about Obama in case he is the nominee. Has anyone asked and if so, how has he answered the question about the multiple “present” votes? I had never heard of this being done before.
because I think Clinton would be a more substantive president… and I think Obama will get eaten alive in the general…
Well, we’ve got war, war-profiteering, torture, domestic spying, corruption, the tearing up of the Constitution…that’s just for starters…
Thanks alot LS, I thought it would be worthy of further analysis to study those figures. I couldn’t figure out how Edwards could be so far ahead and then so far behind after 2nd choices. I blamed Richardson and Kucinich. I read that Richardson denied endorsing Obama, but Obama’s campaign confirmed it. Last night on Bill Moyers Journal while interviewing Kucinich, he asked Kucinich about his endorsement of Obama, and Kucinich after Bill bored down, wiggled out by saying his endorsement was for Iowa only.
I checked in with several of my friends who are in on what is going on at ASU and the students take on Obama….
I am told that among the graduate students it is Edwards all the way and most of the under-graduates feel the same too. Edwards hung out in AZ a lot during 2006 helping with our ballot measure to raise the minimum wage and that is not forgotten by kids who are usually working min wage jobs while going to school.
My own son who has attended all the rallies was not impressed with Obama.
Ron Paul supporters might just sit out the election. They are pissed at McCain for his immigration stand and would not vote for Huck. Rudy & Mitt are tooooo liberal. There is two camps here …. the Mormon factor and the anti-Mormon factor which could cancel each other out. That leaves McCain & Ron Paul. McCain has pissed a lot of Repugs here with the above stand and his kissing up to the religious right. THAT is a no no here in AZ.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
That’s certainly the conventional wisdom, which gets repeated a lot. It could be true, but I’ve never seen any actual evidence for it, and I tend to distrust conventional wisdom in general.
The DLC’s mission is to erase the last vestiges of social democracy from the Democratic Party, so that the corporate consensus will never again be challenged in the United States. Acting as a Republican Trojan Horse in the bowels of the Democratic machinery, the DLC claims the “real” party lives somewhere off to the right, where George Bush dwells, and that minorities, unionists, environmentalists, feminists, men and women of peace – virtually every branch of the party except corporatists – must be purged or muzzled.”
State Senator Obama says he “didn’t object to the DLC’s inclusion of my name on their list.” That is precisely the problem, from which all suspicions reasonably flow. As we wrote in our September 19, 2002 “Trojan Horse Watch”
“Every African American politician associated with the DLC should be considered suspect, and closely watched. There is no reason for them to be there except to make deals with the party’s right wing – which believes that Gore lost the 2000 election largely because he became too closely identified with Blacks and labor.”
http://www.blackcommentator.com/47/47_cover.html
I think if Paul drops out, the paulbots will mostly work on convincing him to run as an independent, and not go to another candidate.
If Obama is the nominee, it will be interesting to see how far the bigots push it.
Hillary’s been running as if the primaries were already won and she could afford to posture for the general. Watch her wheel on a dime now and move toward the left.
I love it!
Really, really far. What else have they got?
Because of his race? Surely not because of his intellect, when placed against any of the GOP frontrunners? Obama v Huckster in a debate? Pass the popcorn.
PeteCO @ 255
“Agreed. I do believe that if HRC is the nominee, it will drive up GOP turnout, which could hurt Dems further down the ticket.”
I am extremely concerned about this — also with Obama. Plan to spend most of 2008 here in NC helping on the state level in two races. Have already committed lots of time to those candidates in anticipation of this problem.
The golf course vote would be “We really HATE Hillary”.
Any racial stuff going after Obama could backfire in most parts of the country–but might have legs in the South.
The Huckster ain’t no dummy in my opinion. He’s pretty damned sharp.
In this area that same sentiment is echoed at the bridge tables.
no, not because of his race, because his inexperience…
Yep, Fear of a Black Planet.
That already has Jonah “Doughy Pantload” Goldberg filling his trousers with pooh.
-G
My friend told me his mother’s friend was a die-hard Democrat, but now plans on voting Republican because she doesn’t want to vote for a Muslim(Obama).
Ignorant but smart.
Still hoping for Edwards- but if he doesn’t make a very good showing in NH and WIN South Carolina- it’s all over for him. He can’t limp into Super Tuesday’s media spending orgy without a win and without competitive funding and walk out alive.
The rest of the country will get the “we’re more Christian than them” and the “be very afraid if they win” stuff.
I’m still hoping for Edwards too, but am preparing myself…
The Huckster gave the best speech post Iowa results in my opinion. He’s got “it” as my great grandmother would say. I found myself being charmed in spite of myself. Don’t underestimate this guy.
That sort of thing is exactly what concerns me. Ignorance and bigotry combined.
Perhaps NH will do the job that Iowa was unable to.
We are supporting Edwards.
I agree. I think such a strategy would show the GOP up for what they really are, to the extent that it will be impossible to ignore. A regional party that depends upon the historical grievances of a handful of swamp-dwellers for support. Irrelevant to the modern world. Unelectable.
PeteCO –
Are you in Denver? Drinking Liberally is the 2nd & 4th Wednesdays at Double Daughters in LoDo, starting at 7:30 — next Wednesday will be the day after the NH primary, and the candidates will be the #1 topic of conversation.
God save us if that rube has to conduct foreign policy or nominate judges.
Goopers have the totally and obviously plastic Romney- the walking cadaver McCain, the devil incarnate Rudy…..
No wonder the Huckster looks good to em.
Again I say; Cheney has experience, Rumsfeld has experience….
I hope that Bush’s legacy is putting them there.
I’m an Edwards supporter…but at this point he’s a really really long shot. Polls have him in third in NH. If that doesn’t change Tuesday he’s a goner. But he might hang in there until SC.
The Huckster also plays bass.
Yes, and look what a good job they did.
Pete – I just don’t trust what I see with Obama… perhaps it as simple as “the devil you know vs…”
all the R attacks on Clinton are just so much noise… I do think, if she gets the nomination, she would do well to pick him as her running mate.
Like I said, it could finally flush the GOP down the bowl as the regional, racist, neo-confederates that they have morphed into.
-G
they had no experience running government they had experience mucking government
I think the referenced inexperience problem with Obama is not necesssarily one of government experience. It’s whether he can take on the entrenched corporate interests and prevail. My guess is they will try to completely marginalize him as soon as he’s nominated.
Why, yes I am. I’ve thought about turning up before, but I’m a very early riser. How late does it typically run?
Whoa, Nellie!!!
Via TPM — new poll has Obama up by 10 points in New Hampshire!!!
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/062755.php
Re: the change-experience divide:
The majority of voters said: Yep, I want to experience change…
Because people in the North would not want to be perceived as racist? Or, because they might be more enlightened?
(ygm)
When a Black, Lesbian is considered to be a viable candidate, then I’ll consider who is enlightened or not. (okay, not holding my breath, but, I can dream, can’t I?)
Ya mean “Gomer”" He looks, speaks and has the same facial expression.
I don’t know any body who could hold their nose and vote for him. We have to keep separation of church and state any thing else and this country will disintegrate.
That’s not gonna work: an identity politics ticket, gender and race, too stacked for Americans at this point in history
Is Obama’s mom alive? Has she been campaigning with him?
It usually gets going by 8ish — some folks leave by 9, others hang out til 10 or 11. They are a lot of fun — Jared Polis has been there several times, and many other candidates show up too. Even Bill Ritter when he was running for Governor.
Obama’s mom died in 1980s I think. Of cancer.
I haven’t read anything that shows that Huckabee would be worse at not separating church and state than the current administration.
Just the opposite.
If you have facts to back up your comment, I’d love to read them.
Spinning is spinning is spinning. I think it’s dangerous to just repeat other people’s opinions without facts.
“In the memoir, Obama describes his experiences growing up in his mother’s American middle class family. His knowledge about his African father, who returned once for a brief visit in 1971, came mainly through family stories and photographs.[12] Of his early childhood, Obama writes: “That my father looked nothing like the people around me—that he was black as pitch, my mother white as milk—barely registered in my mind.”[18] The book describes his struggles as a young adult to reconcile social perceptions of his multiracial heritage.[19] He wrote that he used alcohol, marijuana, and cocaine during his teenage years to “push questions of who I was out of my mind”.[20]
After high school, Obama moved to Los Angeles, where he studied at Occidental College for two years.[21] He then transferred to Columbia University in New York City, where he majored in political science with a specialization in international relations.[22] Obama received his B.A. degree in 1983, then worked at Business International Corporation and NYPIRG before moving to Chicago to take a job as a community organizer.[23] As Director of the Developing Communities Project, he worked with low-income residents in Chicago’s Roseland community and the Altgeld Gardens public housing development.[24] He entered Harvard Law School in 1988.[25] In 1990, The New York Times reported his election as the Harvard Law Review’s “first black president in its 104-year history”.[26] He completed his J.D. degree magna cum laude in 1991.[27] On returning to Chicago, Obama directed a voter registration drive.[27] As an associate attorney with Miner, Barnhill & Galland from 1993 to 1996, he represented community organizers, discrimination claims, and voting rights cases.[28] He was a lecturer of constitutional law at the University of Chicago Law School from 1993 until his election to the U.S. Senate in 2004″
(Wiki)
nahant….
I guess you’re seeing a different person than the one I watched. This guy is the best of the bunch in relating to people and he’s sharp as a tack. Nothin “gomer” about him that I can see- other than the fact that he’s from the south- but that’s pure prejudice isn’t it?
I was watching CNN I believe it was early yesterday and they were saying the the huck was on his knees praying to Jeasus for his victory. Any candidate that would do that in front of a political crowd would have problem extending “Faith based programs” such as the ministry set up in a Florida prison where they coerce inmate to be reborn. What crap!!
The gooper primary is likely to be the more interesting of the two. Hillary and Obama don’t disagree about much- while the gooper candidates are like a zoo- one of each. They are going to finally have a showdown as to whether the christian right is actually real partner in the party or a scullery maid. Gonna be interesting. The deep pockets people HATE the Huckster- and will be forced to destroy him. Won’t be pretty.
He has zero knowledge about foreign policy and has given some pretty dumb answers. He is narrow-minded, anti-everything that progressives stand for and will never be ready for prime time. That’s not prejudice – I’m from the south originally and apparently the people in Arkansas disliked him a lot.
nahant
Are you saying that the Huckster was on his knees praying in front of the cameras? That would be over the top.
Twain
Yep- he is apparently out of his depth on many policy issues- I was just sayin that he doesn’t come across as a “Gomer” to me. He would be a disaster as a prez- but it’s a mistake to write him off as a Rube- he’s more dangerous than that.
At this point I don’t write anyone off. I do think the Repugs will destroy him if he gets close to the nomination – the word will likely be that he has had an affair, or he cheated on this taxes, etc. They will not let him be their top dog. They can’t afford it.
Not prejudice just my impression of him. He has many mannerism of the Gomer Pile character. I told my lady the fist time I saw him, to me the resemblance is too strong to ignore. And by the way Gomer was a great character on the Andy Grifith show!!
PW, I sent you mail.
“squicks” you out? what a great word!