Login HereBased on voting projections, the networks -- across the board -- are calling the Iowa caucuses for Barack Obama (D) and Mike Huckabee (R).
Here are the latest hard numbers on the Democratic caucus vote results:
Obama : 36.98%
Edwards : 30.05%
Clinton : 29.75%
Richardson : 2.17%
Biden : 0.92%
Uncommitted : 0.11%
Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1600/1781
The big news from where I sit:
-- Lots of youth vote participation, most of whom appear to have broken for Obama, based on early reports. But that is a very good thing for Democrats nationwide if that trend continues, I would think. We saw some of that in 2006, but not at this level of participation. All the campaigns -- and especially the Obama one -- deserve kudos for involving youth vote so much in Iowa. Keep that up!
-- Edwards was outspent substantially by Clinton and Obama, and managed to stay in very good contention. That's huge for them -- and for his populist message as well. Will be interesting to see how they spin this out -- and how much of his message the other two begin to adopt.
-- GOP pundits are squirming about Huckabee. Someone get Peggy Noonan another dry sherry...stat.
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Well, crap.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/062589.php
Seems Ron Paul has pretty much smoked Rudy in Iowa. With about 2/3 reporting, Paul’s got about 10% and Rudy’s bringing up the rear with a healthy 4%.
Will Fox let him debate?
Mwahaha!
WindCatPond!
Results:
Obama : 37.24%
Edwards : 29.97%
Clinton : 29.56%
Richardson : 2.14%
Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1656/1781
Well, just back from being completely and utterly unable to access this site for quite some time. There’s obviously either a server or a band width issue that has been getting worse as the evening wears on.
Sorry, Christy, that’s not a very nice comment to start off with. I’m just no fan of Obama’s. I’m glad to see young people involved in the political process too, but do they know who they are voting for and why? I’d rather see Clinton out in front, and I don’t support her either in this race.
I’m bummed Edwards is not taking Iowa, but you’re right, good showing considering how outgunned financially he was.
Alas for us Edwards supporters, he is under 30. But still in second place:
Obama 37.30
Edwards 29.95
Clinton 29.54
1667/1781
NBC storyline is very much anti Iraq … draws youth vote with Obama portrayed as the change candidate and drawing them.
McCain came in fourth .. last I saw … hahahaha!!
Yeah. I was lonely out there in the toobless wilderness.
Yeah, I’ve been locked out for about the last 30 minutes. Anyway, it was pretty much over by the last time I was here.
Huckabee to gloat…er, talk…in about 20 minutes.
goddess(es) bless every FDL tech worker.
may the code be with you.
know that you are APPRECIATED.
Results:
Obama : 37.29%
Edwards : 29.98%
Clinton : 29.52%
Richardson : 2.12%
Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1671/1781
212,000 voters acc to IDC in Dem caucus, with 91% counted, immense turnout
Second place for Edwards is a great position. I note that Mrs. Greenspan can’t quite make herself say his name.
Oh, it’s back working.
Hiya.
I have a question.
I know what a firewall is on my computer but what is a firewall in politics and why is it they said that Hillary doesn’t have one?
Results:
Obama : 37.29%
Edwards : 29.98%
Clinton : 29.52%
Richardson : 2.12%
Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1671/1781
212,000 voters acc to IDC in Dem caucus, with 91% counted, immense turnout
compared with 122,000 in ‘04
R’s 120,000
It’s just Iowa….
There’s a lot more going to happen.
But, I agree with zedCarolyn….Crap.
I sure hope there’s going to be a change as other states “give it up” for their candidates, but, I hate to tell y’all just how much I don’t want Oblahma to get the nomination.
Brian Williams, in recounting the past 7 years, said we were “attacked by a foreign power.”
– Edwards was outspent substantially by Clinton and Obama, and managed to stay in very good contention. That’s huge for them — and for his populist message as well. Will be interesting to see how they spin this out — and how much of his message the other two begin to adopt.
Well, it would be a nice start if someone - anyone - in the MSM would notice that there is somebody in Iowa who has placed between Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton.
I’m thinking that Edwards is going to have to do or say something *big* to get anyone to notice that he’s even running, let alone running well.
212,000 voters acc to IDC in Dem caucus, with 91% counted, immense turnout
compared with 122,000 in ’04
R’s 120,000
It’s been one of those days for the servers, kids — so sorry about the hiccups. But know we are working on it…a lot.
You weren’t the only one. But I beeen on the Iowa Dem sebsite watching the numbers come in so at least I could see what was happening.
Got no dry sherry, she’s gonna have to settle for Boone’s Farm like the Huckabee boys
Alrite, I’m going to go tell them you are all up here. Goodbye. I may never make it back.
None of them can
Tell us the context of the statement. A firewall protects.
I really don’t care for that Andrea Mitchell…
Mrs. Greenspan explaining Clinton’s loss by saying Leno is more popular than Letterman - i.e. - aw hell, why bother trying to explain Mrs. Greenspan?
Thanks to you, Jane & everyone at FDL for all the work. We really appreciate it.
Who is maintaining the site and what ISP is hosting the servers???
Inquiring minds want to know.
We know, and we’re not really mad… But if we don’t tell you y’all won’t know, right?
amazing how much Mrs Greenspan and MSNBC are playing up that HRC event now is a “manufactured event”
quite something to see … anti-HRC line really strong
The Talking
AssesHeads on CNN, particularly David Gergen are projecting that Edwards is done for ’cause he ain’t got no money.And of course, we call bullshit!
Time for bloggers with press credentials to get in the faces of MSMers and ask ‘em WTF re Edwards blackout. And keep askin’ ’til we get answers.
It was on Olbermann twice. One that Rudy is making a firewall in Florida. And the other that Hillary was expecting a firewall in NH or from NH.
forgive me, but I must vent…. fuck Iowa. They bought the Korporate Koolaid with Obama… a republican in sheep’s clothing, calling union-backed 527s “special interests”… give me an effing break.
I feel just like when Kerry won in 2004.
Donate to John Edwards please… www.johnedwards.com
gremlins
The end of the Bush Clinton era. Time for the Clintons to go work for the Carlyle Group and hopefully disappear.
Edwards up on MSNBC
Just spitballing here, but it occurs to me that whoever said that was considering that Hillary has been handed down from On High by the Very Serious People for so long that she has no “firewall” to hide behind to explain a 3rd place showing. Just thinking/spitballing, as I said…
A firewall in this context is a state where a candidate is sure to do well despite early losses. For example SC was W’s firewall against a surging McCain in 2000. Helped along by Rove’s push-polling.
A solid enough win to knock back Obama and/or Edwards.
Na ga hapn
Edwards on MSNBC
Yes, we really want to blab that around publicly because no one would want to know that information for nefarious or ornery purposes or anything.
O.o
Hillary could have input into recipes in the Obama cabinet. But it’s still very early.
I also see a place for HRC and McCain to market a pantsuit line for either sex, and advertise that it will be worn on the 99,000 Iraq bases she’s backing.
Elizabeth Edwards is hopefully not speaking in the past tense…
Results:
Obama : 37.39%
Edwards : 29.95%
Clinton : 29.46%
Richardson : 2.13%
Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1692/1781
Edwards “the status quo lost”
he must’ve been thinking of oz.
Power Point Bullets on Why Iowa is the Craziest Raucus Caucus or Democrats in Demoines Are Completely Crazy
1) In the 1781 Iowa Caucuses if a participation record is set–say as high as 150,000 people participate, this will be less than 15% of all Iowans–parhaps by many. But voting in many states in Congressional elections often hovers less than the 10% mark. So if soldiers are dying for a vote as an example of freedom, they’re dying for 10-15% of the people who actually do vote–and that’s even in Presidential elections when the untracable, hackable Diebold machines are open for 12 hours.
2) The people that vote Democrat have to be willing starting at 7PM to spend 2-5 hours in a caucus which is a meeting.
3) At some of the rural caucuses, no one might show up. No one. But if one voter shows up, their vote will count as much as 100 times more than the votes in a suburban or urban Iowa caucus. They ain’t equal.
4) If you are a caucuser in suburban Demoines Iowa, where the media hovers and says things like “Damn it’s cold in Iowa in January” digging deeply and mataphysically into their political science genius, then your vote will count 1/100 as much or worse than a single vote in Iowa Falls, or Storm Lake, Iowa a meat packing town or Brooklyn, Iowa 60 miles South of Demoines. Yes Virginia, there is a Brooklyn in Iowa too. Bridge, not so much.
4) Republicans aka Rethugs write their name on a piece of paper and go home(provided they can write). But not the Dems, no no no. They meet and argue with their neighbors, and then declare their choice while their neighbors pressure them to choose otherwise. Then by a byzantine set of rules, the smaller groups get dissolved and their members are told to choose a large group.
5) If a larger group does not emerge at a particular caucus, which could happen at many, then, the winner is decided by a coin toss. That’s right a coin toss theoretically with a 50% chance to win if they don’t use a two headed coin.
6) Much of the buzz in the MSM and among bloggers has been who the losers will give their caucuser votes to. But think about it: You’re a Kucinich faithful follower, and he’s not making the 15% cut, so he and his people get the word to you–vote for Barak (mainly because Edwards was caught on tape saying Kucinich was never a playuh even though he’s more closely alligned with Edwards’ points.
How does Kucinich, or Biden (Dodd has said today, and good for him–that he wouldn’t think of insulting anyone by telling them who to vote for, and that he didn’t see how people who thought as much about their participation could be ordered to vote en mass for someone anyway–good point Dodd).
Taken from:
The Slice of the Sliver Speaks
Iowa Caucus Rules
Am not watching TV. Please explain.
Seems to me that Edwards is in good shape but I am really sorry Obama won. Also, what does this do to McCain?
I still say….Beware Obama.
He is not a friend of progressives.
And, what are we?
It seems that the repub establishment has decided that they’d rather run against Obama than Hillary.
Rudi hopes by concentrating on Florida he is protecting himself from losses in sammler states. Hillary hopes a win in NH would insulate her from this loss.
Please explain. I am clueless and desperate for understanding.
I thought my precinct’s run on Obamites might be because of the large number of graduate students who were obviously turning out, but it looks like the statewide trend differs only by degree.
Hopefully the pundits will continue the MSNBC line that HRC is losing because of her lack of clear Iraq position … that kind of punditry would be welcome
Go, John!!! Reminding us of what it’s really all about…
That may be the REAL Story…90,000 more attendees than the Republican’s pulled! Almost TWICE as many!
And Republicans mainly pulled the evangelicals who want to make this a “religious state” issue.
It’s gonna drive more and more Republicans away from the Party. This is beginning to look very bad for the Pugs!
Obama 37.39
Edwards 29.95
Clinton 29.47
1700/1781
What a half assed way to select a candidate.
As I replied in the other thread-
A political firewall is more like the firewall in your car: the engine can burn but the firewall between the passenger compartment and the engine will give you time to get out before you get burnt. IE, plan A for taking Iowa didn’t work, I have a plan B for taking the rest without having taken Iowa. She doesn’t really have that, her campaign was built on her inevitability, and now that it’s shaken with a third place finish in Iowa, she’s got a lot of plan B to come up with.
fucking sheeple, I don’t care if they are students… get a brain!
Those are numbers not bullets.
Results:
Obama : 37.39%
Edwards : 29.95%
Clinton : 29.47%
Richardson : 2.12%
Biden : 0.92%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1700/1781
Earlier this evening he referred to his “friend, Joe Lieberman.” Need anyone say more?
Well, screw that. I’m sending him more money, tonight. And he’s getting most of him money from people like me, dead broke.
Edwards is speaking, hitting on the corporate greed and the misery it causes working Americans. Go John!
please tell us what he says.
OK, all the whining about no coverage of Edwards, he’s going on and on.
Edwards needs second place, but at least we know that Hilary is not unbeatable, does anyone have any information on how the second choices broke for the candidates and for whom they broke for?
As much as I’d have preferred John on top, it could have been worse, it could have been Hillary, Obama, Edwards, and us progressives would have REALLY taken a beating in that lineup.
I have been in the It business to think gremlins. Moe like Data base issues or underlying OS issues, but of course we poor peons arn’t supposed to know these things. Sometimes change can be bad and you have to roll back to previous version. Again in could be the servers themselves (crap hardware and not enough ethernet connections??
Just troubleshooting from the evidence I see.
No real snark but the back room guys should learn a lot from a good lessons session, IMHO
Edwards is giving an amazing speech right now…
John Edwards doing very well in his speech.
I just gave John $100… anyone care to match it?
See above. I guess the new thing is that he see’s the vote for change.
Andrea keeps pushing the point that Hillary’s party is “manufactured”… the crap is just endless… every chance they get, they same something crappy and mean…
let it be at this point. Anything to get rid of the Clintons.
Marion proof please or link, that Obama said “my friend Joe Lieberman”
I see it as a very strong anti-Clinton vote …
I’m not pro Obama and hesitant about Edwards
but very glad to see the HRC inevitability shaken
Thanks Jane
I love this
– GOP pundits are squirming about Huckabee. Someone get Peggy Noonan another dry sherry…stat.
I like what I see with Edwards hopeful he can start to raise more money ( I hated saying that) it shows he’s in the for it the long run.
jo6pac
In my precinct, the second choices definitely broke for Edwards. I can’t tell you whether that’s representative of the state.
Hillary is WAAAAAYYYYY more progressive than Obama.
LISTEN to what they say!
In the history of the Iowa Democratic Caucus has an opposed winner gone on to be elected President. The key word is opposed. Bill Clinton in 1992 DID NOT win Iowa.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucus
The front-runner came in third. That’s huge.
Good idea. We should all send Edwards a few sheckels tonight. He’s fighting the good fight. CarolynU, are you going to do any volutneer work for him in NH?
Thank you Siun and eg and PS and everyone for all the updates. ‘preciate it :)
I didn’t mean to sound negative about what he was saying, just the whining.
Feck. I’m already gnashing my teeth. Now I have to go straight to scream therapy.
C’mon people, pony up for Edwards.
Well, actually you matched mine from New Year’s Day!
Nope. Have to go with Hillary over Obama if we can’t have Edwards. Obama scares the daylights out of me.
Rut ro, Edwards chanelling JFK.
np — That’s what I figured. *g*
Results:
Obama : 37.50%
Edwards : 29.89%
Clinton : 29.42%
Richardson : 2.10%
Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.14%
Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1713/1781
Andrea keeps pushing the point that Hillary’s party is “manufactured”… the crap is just endless… every chance they get, they same something crappy and mean…
Mrs. Greenspan should, imo, be sentenced to covering the Romney campaign from this point forward…
I don’t have any truck during the primary process with any Democrat who would cross the street to spit on Joe Lieberman if he were on fire. All bets are off in the general.
The amazing voter turnout is fantastic news for November. When more people vote, Democrats win. Regardless of the Prez race, if this trend continues, we’ll be seeing another Blue Wave the Fall.
More and Better!
$$$$$$$$$$ pls
www.johnedwards.com
put your money where your heart is…. this is our last chance for a long time.
Matthews is a total fucking idiot.
I’m not pro Obama and hesitant about Edwards
I understand not pro Obama, but why hesitant about Edwards? Do you not take him for his word(s)?
McCain did about as well as Ron Paul. Tee hee.
I bet Hillary comes in third in NH.
Sorry, just going by what my own little shell-pink ears heard. When I was locked out of the site, or I would have screamed then.
Actually, in last night final ads both Hillary and Obama adopted Edwards’ message. Problem will be when the Dem candidate adopts the pubbie messages in the general. Edwards won’t do that.
He just gave a passionate speech as Elizabeth claimed the second place finish in Iowa. Great speech!!!
Am so glad to find others who feel this way, too. As a commenter over at Talk Left said, Obama thinks he can govern based on his “marvelousness.” I’m just not into personality cults. Never was.
Hillary is about to lie like a mofo. . .again.
Had lunch today with someone here in Chi who is very politically astute and very progressive who said the advantage of Obama is that he can be pushed by us, he is more likely to be responsive to pressure from progressives.
He reminded me that we are the change agents, not the candidates - and said that what we need is a prez who will be influenced by us. BTW he was not saying anything for or against Edwards, we were just talking Obama and I wanted a sense from someone who I trust and who knows the inside Chi scene.
fwiw
Outspent 6-1 and he came in second.
Another donation en route to Edwards.
He beat the front runner, despite all her money and fame.
Let’s keep the momentum going!
Kudos to all of you who can watch this. My elderly mother wanted to watch “Without A Trace”. She told me the Iowa results were “Without A Clue”.
What could I say…I let her change the channel. *g*
(She loves JRE.)
yup. I’ll match that.
eCAHN, I’m going to try to go over to NH either Sunday, Monday or both.
FWIW, I imagine there’s a whole lot about the set-up of the servers and such that is not public knowledge for good reasons. Given all the evidence of the competence of the tech folks here at FDL, I tend to trust that they know what they are doing. And from previous discussions, this most recent upgrade of the infrastructure has gone far smoother and with fewer burps than previous upgrades.
Thanks EvilDRPuma it seems Hilary is third.