The numbers here tonight on the Democratic side do not tell the true story. If the caucus I went to was any indication, the distribution of delegates (tallied in the percentages) did not reflect just how strong Obama's support was. I'm hearing that the situation was mirrored across the state, and that if the total number of votes were tallied it actually would've meant a double-digit lead for Obama.
In Clinton's concession speech, she already started hitting the message her campaign will undoubtedly adopt going forward -- Obama needed the help of independents and Republicans crossing over to help him, and won't be able to be as competitive in a closed Democratic primary. Because Democrats should decide who the Democratic nominee will be, after all.
Then Bill Clinton will go on Larry King and say "no matter what happens, it's good for the Democrats." Because as we learned in the Lamont race, that's how it works, right?
Not sure where Edwards goes from here. Obama clearly won the "not Hillary" vote.
People wanted change, and their votes were cast based on who they see as best embodying that change. Obama did a great job energizing the youth vote. But the big winner -- Huckabee. The Republicans are eating their own livers on Fox news over his route. The success of his underdog populism is gonna shake the GOP to its core.
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Obama 37.56
Edwards 29.82
Clinton 29.42
Richardson 2.11
Biden 0.94
Uncommitted 0.13
Dodd 0.02
1749/1781
Jane! You must be exhausted.
Remind me to send them all a nice bottle of Chianti. For rinsing down those livers…
Obama/Edwards ‘08?
Unbeatable.
Oh Jane . . . eating their own livers? You do know how to turn a phrase.
Thanks for the great reporting, Jane. I won’t mention the 80 degree weather downunder.
I’m in the Edwards camp. It annoys me to see the corporate media so eager to bury him with haircut bs so soon, and I suppose they will now carry on with Obama and Hillary only now.
I do think there is hope in the overall corporate smackdown.
~
and fava beans
Looking forward to seeing the final turnout numbers for Dems vs. Repubs. Should be very interesting.
I’m still an Edwards guy first, but here’s to hoping that all those young folks bring change to DC if Obama makes it.
I didn’t really expect the kids to turn out… but they sure did!
Oh, fuck, Obama’s giving a ‘let’s all get along’ speech. Fuck him, I want a fighter.
Results:
Obama : 37.59%
Edwards : 29.81%
Clinton : 29.41%
Richardson : 2.10%
Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.13%
Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1751/1781
Might bode well for congressional elections.
Obama’s speech is sure sounding more like he just won the nomination, as opposed to having won the first primary.
Kumba-fuckin’-ya.
So, a lot of horse trading going on at the caucuses tonight. What was the effect of Rethugs supporting Obama in an attempt to derail Hillary?
Bonkers at #5: you got it!
I think the most positive thing out of Iowa was the number of votes for each party. This bodes well for the general election.
So Jane, are you heading to New Hampshire in the morning?
Jane, how do you think this outcome affect Edwards’s prospects going forward?
Archer Daniels Midland has spoken. It’s Obama!
Ok, credit where credit’s due…Obama saying some very good things now. But he needs to cut that bipartisn crap.
looks like Obama decided to wear the “inevitable” mantel.
Jane in New Hampshire? BlueStater wants to know. Reason for a snoopy dance in advance.
BTW. Snoopy dance is a prohibited phrase on DKos. Anyone know why?
Yes. We’ve been focusing so hard on the Dem results that we are missing out on a serious schadenfreude opportunity. Multitasking, people!
Nope, I’m going back to DC. But I may hit Florida. That may be shaping up as the party’s waterloo.
One state down, just 49 more to go.
NH is really going to be interesting. I’m looking forward to seeing those NH polls in a couple of days.
Wait a minute, it’s not like Obama is the dem candidate yet. (I hope!) Anybody got stats on winning Iowa versus winning the nomination?
Hiya Jane! In my post tonight I said that Edwards won. Clinton lost, but Dodd and Kucinich lost even more.
I think that message resonates best with the young.
I am not an Obama fan, but I can see him appealing to someone who wants a better future.
Fact is, I don’t think he can deliver.
Reaching across the aisle will get you dragged through broken glass./
Ok, credit where credit’s due…
ok, I like that he’s standing there by himself, without supporters and/or sycophants. That’s about all I can think of…
Well, that sounds ominous.
Applebee’s is going nowhere.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucus
Wiki already has tonight’s results in, and if you scroll down you can see the results of the last several caucuses. There have been some major aberrations in the Iowa results compared to the final results. Huck’s got nothing going for him other than Fundie support, which doesn’t go far in a lot of the other states. Hillary is far from done unfortunately.
We gotta tackle SeeSaw Romney and Saint John.
So, a lot of horse trading going on at the caucuses tonight. What was the effect of Rethugs supporting Obama in an attempt to derail Hillary?
I would say minimal, in my precinct anyway. A lot of Obama’s support came from the large concentration of grad students in the neighborhood, and he also drew almost all of the minority vote. Lane-changing Rethuglicans had little if anything to do with it.
Sounds like we gotta bunch of weather people up in here!
So, here’s my nightmare:
Obama vs Huckabee, and Huckabee wins.
I sure like the look of that duo.
Obama is giving a hell of a speech.
I mean, who the fuck in their right mind thought that George Bush had a prayer?
Not me.
I sure like that ticket, bonkers.
Someone was looking for hard numbers and solid historical analysis.
Here is some:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/3/215732/6649
at the risk of repeating myself from two threads earlier….
pls forgive me, but I must vent…. Fuck Iowa… shades of Kerry in 2004, they swallowed the Korporate Koolaid but good… Obama is a sheep in republicans’ clothing… calling union-backed 527s “special interests”…. dickhead. Who are Iowans to decide for America?
my hope is that super tuesday, Feb 5, selects Edwards… but if the coporate media continue to anoint Obama…. the sheeple will follow.
Fuck them… please donate to Edwards so he can continue the fight for US…
He’s the ONLY ONE fighting for us…. and he need our support now more than ever.
www.johnedwards.com
I checked teh Google… “Presidents who won the Iowa Caucus”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucus
Guess what…. any Dem who ran opposed and won the Iowa Caucus DID NOT win the Presidency. Not even Bill Clinton in 1992, Jimmy Carter came in behind the uncommitted
I think of it as a debate I couldn’t wait to see. Obama would kill him in the general and in a debate.
Cynically, money wise I think Romney will be the Rethug candidate. I would be shocked if the Evangelicals can carry the Huckster to the general, but anything can happen.
A fighter? Hmmmm. Who would that be?
Problem is, when it comes out of his mouth, it reminds me of RGJoe’s civil rights speech…
Good job Jane.
I mean, who the fuck in their right mind thought that George Bush had a prayer?
obviously, a whole shit-load of people *not* in their right minds…
Archer Danil Midlands and General Electric have spoken. It’s Huckabee!
Powerful close by Obama. He really is a great speaker.
That’s very true katymine; Clinton if I recall got 2-3% of the vote in Iowa in his first campaign’s term, but I’m thinking and hoping that won’t be the case.
I’m interested. Who then, do you think will win for the Dems in the general?
But when’s the first closed Democratic primary? Hillary could lose a lot of primaries between now and then. NH is open; what about SC?
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it agin: I am not happy about this at all. Obama is a Trojan Horse. And here’s why.
I’m going to sit this election out.
Crap. Once again a few idiots in Iowa have eliminated my candidate before I’ve been given a chance to vote for him.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080104/ap_po/dodd
I am afraid BO will wilt under the scrutiny of the MSM and the rethugs will steal another election. Wasn’t there something about a shady real estate deal in the news 6 or 7 months ago? About the time that Rove left the White House. THIS SMELLS LIKE A SET UP!!
I’m adding to that plea. Anything will help.
Long Road to Denver
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/IA-D.phtml
Obama 17 Delegates
Edwards 14 Delegates
Clinton 14 Delegates
booyah — I understand your support for Edwards, truly I do. But please don’t continue to repeat the comments. And on behalf of all of our Iowans in the audience, it’s incredibly insulting to them…many of whom worked their asses off for the Edwards campaign.
Truly, folks, don’t take it out on each other. This is one state — one caucus — there is a long, long road of voting to come before a candidate is picked. And, to be perfectly honest, Obama just gave one helluva speech.
Don’t start the circular firing squad before we even get past the first tiny blip in the battle. We are better than that. Or at least, we ought to be…
Hmm.
You’re always welcome of course - wait for it to warm up a little. But nothin’ happenin’ down here for the Dems. I’m afreaid it’s going to be very, very, very tough for Dem to be competitive in the general. But this is a red state anyway.
My favorite result of the night - Rudy Giuliani came in behind Ron Paul! *g*
I knew in 1998 that george would be the next presnit
there is some dispute about whether I am “In My Right Mind”, but they never proved anything in court …
I think it’s probably warmer in Florida than either Iowa or New Hampshire. You may need it just to thraw out.
Tweety is in love with the Obama narrative…
Cassie gets half way up the ladder and sees that the lake is now half ice and chooses to skip her exit dive. Time to go into the nice warm clubhouse and drink cocoa.
Night!
Well said, as usual.
Sigh. If the freakin’ republicans can get a sloppy moron out there to play populist — successfully — then why can’t we? I know the answers, it’s just that my brain seized and threatened to ooze out of my ears when I read Jane’s phrase “underdog populism” applied to Schmuckabee.
I knew in 1998 that george would be the next presnit
there is some dispute about whether I am “In My Right Mind”, but they never proved anything in court …
Thanks Jane, Christy and all the rest of the crew for all the hard work today. Even with the all the “database error please try again” issues it was still a great experience for all.
And how did Chimpy do in the debates?
Sheeple don’t get debates. They vote identity which seems to be what the young folks did tonight too.
You’re always welcome of course - wait for it to warm up a little. But nothin’ happenin’ down here for the Dems. I’m afreaid it’s going to be very, very, very tough for Dem to be competitive in the general. But this is really a red state anyway.
MSNBC website reports that Biden is dropping out, too, FWIW.
Thank you Christy.
Results:
Obama : 37.55%
Edwards : 29.81%
Clinton : 29.45%
Richardson : 2.10%
Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.13%
Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1763/1781
I’m up for halfheartedly supporting the Democratic nominee if that is Obama or Hillary. But if it is one of them, I will be up for working on a new progressive party on November 5, 2008.
Amen, Christy! It’s a marathon… and Edwards had an admirable showing, edged out Hill after spending far less… Game On! *g*
I knew in 1998 that george would be the next presnit
there is some dispute about whether I am ”In My Right Mind”, but they never proved anything in court …
From Dodd
Dear ,
I count the past year of campaigning for the presidency as one of the most rewarding in a career of public service.
Unfortunately, I am withdrawing from that campaign tonight.
But there is no reason to hang our heads this evening — only the opportunity to look towards a continuation of the work we started last January: ending the Iraq War, restoring the Constitution, and putting a Democrat in the White House.
I know a lot of you came to this email list through a shared desire to return our nation to one that respects the rule of law, and I want to make one thing clear to all of you:
The fight to restore the Constitution and stop retroactive immunity does not end with my Presidential campaign. FISA will come back in a few weeks and my pledge to filibuster ANY bill that includes retroactive immunity remains operative.
You’ve been an invaluable ally in the battle, and I’ll need you to stick by my side despite tonight’s caucus results.
So, one more time, thank you for all of your efforts throughout the course of this entire Presidential campaign.
We made a real difference in shaping the debate, and we’ll continue to do so in the coming days, weeks and years.
I’ll never forget you, and what we’ve fought for, together, over the past year.
Chris Dodd
It is a good thing with the increase in the youth vote but they are THE most expensive voter to turn out, the MOST unpredictable and least accountable.
Will have to see how the rest of the primaries turn out….
From the column you linked:
Obama’s gospel mistake
This is America. We have several places in the Constitution that mandate separation of church and state in an election. I don’t care if he’s an atheist, an agnostic, or ever sets foot in a Church. Religion should not be an issue. It isn’t for me.
You can’t hold Obama responsible for something the leader of a church he speaks at, anymore than you can hold me responsible for what the owner of a building does where I have a meeting tomorrow.
The King family’s behavior in auctioning their dad’s papers was reprehensible. Their stewardship of the King home, and other land was reprehensible. The King family is about greed, and more greed. And I got to see how one of them because she was a King, often failed to show up for work at a hospital where she was a resident M.D.
Dodd email - let’s get rolling on supporting him and fighting FISA:
I like to think progressive blogs helped demythologize him. Or at least we had fun trying.
Dodd gets more worthy of admiration every day. If only he had Reid’s job, we might have a viable working Congress.
Agreed. But the speech is his thang. When is the next dem debate? Will there be more.
Obama is a preacher type speaker, but really good at it.
That sure seems like a worthy goal to me!
Two possums are fighting in my front yard and there is a storm coming.
I will miss Dodd. He never had a shot but I was looking forward to voting for him in New York.
Why Jane? Please explain if you are not too tired.
Hear, Hear! And what can we do to support him for next Majority Leader?
Biden announcing he is dropping out.
Two possums are fighting in my front yard and there is a storm coming.
don’t they know the caucus is over and they don’t have to fight tonight?
The important question is who will Dunkin Hunter throw his support behind.
-G
Dodd saying he will still filibuster is great news.
I think that Obama and his young family looks good for America. He sure is brilliant so Im going to think the best for now.
It’s Bush’s top priority, so we definitely need to gear up for a fight.
Any other Virginians who can join me if I arrange a meeting with Webb’s office about it during the break?
Dodd is a class act and has my respect both as a candidate and as a Senator. I can not say the same for either Hillary or Barack.
I just left a thank you on his website and asked him to keep the phone-dialer tool working for the next round of FiSA.
Yep. That’s what’s next.
Barackwater
I really hope he is clean. This is the crap that will be getting thrown BO’s way when he gets the nomination.
http://www.slate.com/id/2155501
I’m disappointed Dodd has dropped out. I was still undecided between Dodd and Kucinich, and excited that perhaps I’d have a chance to make a difference in the primaries this year.
I agree with others here– we need to support him, and make it clear to the Democratic leadership that we will back LEADERS, not ditherers.
Too bad we can’t vote for Majority Leader, cuz my vote would be for Dodd…
He didn’t make the requirements for the Virginia primary ballot. :-(
(Virginia requires an insane number of signatures — 10,000, plus requirement of a certain number from each congressional district.)
If you haven’t caught it, check out Gradyon Carter’s comments on Rudy 912, and the article in this month’s Vanity Fair:
The Abominable No-Man and Mr. 9/11
A Tale of Two Guillianis
I see ya got scolded. I hear ya though. I disagree with Christy, I don’t think it’s insulting to Iowans to note the ridiculous influence this has and attention it has gotten. At the same time, Christy is right. This is just the beginning. Edwards can be happy ’cause of alot of the efforst of alot of those Hawkeyes (I just couldn’t say “Iowans” again. I think it sounds goofy - no insult intended.)
I can and I will.
Amen.
What does being an accountable voter mean? To whom, other than oneself? For what?
Good evening dear friends. Some O-shaped cookies to get us started? Or gingerbread for the three front-runners?
I don’t understand why Andrea Mitchell is speaking from the Hillary camp. Or any camp for that matter.
Thank you for that reminder. Marilyn
57% of the caucus participants under 30 went for Obama.
Clearly, he has tapped into something. That something is the future.
I never expected the young people to turnout in the nunbers they did.
I have never been happier to have been wrong.
Regardless of the candidate you supported, this bodes well for the future of our party. We should celebrate and embrace it.
I like those green ties, too. I wanna get me one.
Andrea is speaking from the Oligarch Camp.
She gets to go home and snubble up to Bubbles Greenspin later on.
Blech.
-G
Yep. It really does bode well.
The nation is running, nay, bolting away fronm Bushism.
-G
Hmm. not sure I’ve ever had the experience of snubbling.
This very scientific-sounding DailyKos diary makes it sound like Edwards is close to finished. Anybody have any insight into whether it is as scientific as it sounds, or whether it is closer to ass smoke?
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/3/215732/6649
Snuggle, not snubble.
-G
But the big winner — Huckabee.
Looking beyond tonight, actually I think the big winner is McCain. Huck will never win the Rethug nomination — they just won’t let it happen.
Which means the big winner is McCain because the others look so weak. He’s the one the MSM loves dearly, and he’s the one who may be hardest to beat.
Obama one among all groups, and he beat Hillary among women. He is going to use those figures to hammer her and Edwards as he wins the general.