The numbers here tonight on the Democratic side do not tell the true story. If the caucus I went to was any indication, the distribution of delegates (tallied in the percentages) did not reflect just how strong Obama’s support was. I’m hearing that the situation was mirrored across the state, and that if the total number of votes were tallied it actually would’ve meant a double-digit lead for Obama.
In Clinton’s concession speech, she already started hitting the message her campaign will undoubtedly adopt going forward — Obama needed the help of independents and Republicans crossing over to help him, and won’t be able to be as competitive in a closed Democratic primary. Because Democrats should decide who the Democratic nominee will be, after all.
Then Bill Clinton will go on Larry King and say "no matter what happens, it’s good for the Democrats." Because as we learned in the Lamont race, that’s how it works, right?
Not sure where Edwards goes from here. Obama clearly won the "not Hillary" vote.
People wanted change, and their votes were cast based on who they see as best embodying that change. Obama did a great job energizing the youth vote. But the big winner — Huckabee. The Republicans are eating their own livers on Fox news over his route. The success of his underdog populism is gonna shake the GOP to its core.
Related posts:
- House Voting Now On The Rule For Health Care Debate
- What We Learned from the Supplemental: If Obama Wants a Public Plan, the Blue Dogs Will Do It
- Jon Tester Would Vote for Schumer’s Public Option: That’s 51
- Iowa Stubborn/Universally Dishonest
- Republicans Still Dubious About Voting For Senate Health Reform Bill
Spotlight
Support this site!
Subscribe to the newsletter
Advertise on Firedoglake
Send
us your tips
Make us your homepage
About Firedoglake
Advanced search
yo
Obama 37.56
Edwards 29.82
Clinton 29.42
Richardson 2.11
Biden 0.94
Uncommitted 0.13
Dodd 0.02
1749/1781
Jane! You must be exhausted.
Remind me to send them all a nice bottle of Chianti. For rinsing down those livers…
Obama/Edwards ‘08?
Unbeatable.
Oh Jane . . . eating their own livers? You do know how to turn a phrase.
Thanks for the great reporting, Jane. I won’t mention the 80 degree weather downunder.
I’m in the Edwards camp. It annoys me to see the corporate media so eager to bury him with haircut bs so soon, and I suppose they will now carry on with Obama and Hillary only now.
I do think there is hope in the overall corporate smackdown.
~
and fava beans
Looking forward to seeing the final turnout numbers for Dems vs. Repubs. Should be very interesting.
I’m still an Edwards guy first, but here’s to hoping that all those young folks bring change to DC if Obama makes it.
I didn’t really expect the kids to turn out… but they sure did!
Oh, fuck, Obama’s giving a ‘let’s all get along’ speech. Fuck him, I want a fighter.
Results:
Obama : 37.59%
Edwards : 29.81%
Clinton : 29.41%
Richardson : 2.10%
Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.13%
Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1751/1781
Might bode well for congressional elections.
Obama’s speech is sure sounding more like he just won the nomination, as opposed to having won the first primary.
Kumba-fuckin’-ya.
So, a lot of horse trading going on at the caucuses tonight. What was the effect of Rethugs supporting Obama in an attempt to derail Hillary?
Bonkers at #5: you got it!
I think the most positive thing out of Iowa was the number of votes for each party. This bodes well for the general election.
So Jane, are you heading to New Hampshire in the morning?
Jane, how do you think this outcome affect Edwards’s prospects going forward?
Archer Daniels Midland has spoken. It’s Obama!
Ok, credit where credit’s due…Obama saying some very good things now. But he needs to cut that bipartisn crap.
looks like Obama decided to wear the “inevitable” mantel.
Jane in New Hampshire? BlueStater wants to know. Reason for a snoopy dance in advance.
BTW. Snoopy dance is a prohibited phrase on DKos. Anyone know why?
Yes. We’ve been focusing so hard on the Dem results that we are missing out on a serious schadenfreude opportunity. Multitasking, people!
Nope, I’m going back to DC. But I may hit Florida. That may be shaping up as the party’s waterloo.
One state down, just 49 more to go.
NH is really going to be interesting. I’m looking forward to seeing those NH polls in a couple of days.
Wait a minute, it’s not like Obama is the dem candidate yet. (I hope!) Anybody got stats on winning Iowa versus winning the nomination?
Hiya Jane! In my post tonight I said that Edwards won. Clinton lost, but Dodd and Kucinich lost even more.
I think that message resonates best with the young.
I am not an Obama fan, but I can see him appealing to someone who wants a better future.
Fact is, I don’t think he can deliver.
Reaching across the aisle will get you dragged through broken glass./
Ok, credit where credit’s due…
ok, I like that he’s standing there by himself, without supporters and/or sycophants. That’s about all I can think of…
Well, that sounds ominous.
Applebee’s is going nowhere.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucus
Wiki already has tonight’s results in, and if you scroll down you can see the results of the last several caucuses. There have been some major aberrations in the Iowa results compared to the final results. Huck’s got nothing going for him other than Fundie support, which doesn’t go far in a lot of the other states. Hillary is far from done unfortunately.
We gotta tackle SeeSaw Romney and Saint John.
So, a lot of horse trading going on at the caucuses tonight. What was the effect of Rethugs supporting Obama in an attempt to derail Hillary?
I would say minimal, in my precinct anyway. A lot of Obama’s support came from the large concentration of grad students in the neighborhood, and he also drew almost all of the minority vote. Lane-changing Rethuglicans had little if anything to do with it.
Sounds like we gotta bunch of weather people up in here!
So, here’s my nightmare:
Obama vs Huckabee, and Huckabee wins.
I sure like the look of that duo.
Obama is giving a hell of a speech.
I mean, who the fuck in their right mind thought that George Bush had a prayer?
Not me.
I sure like that ticket, bonkers.
Someone was looking for hard numbers and solid historical analysis.
Here is some:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/3/215732/6649
at the risk of repeating myself from two threads earlier….
pls forgive me, but I must vent…. Fuck Iowa… shades of Kerry in 2004, they swallowed the Korporate Koolaid but good… Obama is a sheep in republicans’ clothing… calling union-backed 527s “special interests”…. dickhead. Who are Iowans to decide for America?
my hope is that super tuesday, Feb 5, selects Edwards… but if the coporate media continue to anoint Obama…. the sheeple will follow.
Fuck them… please donate to Edwards so he can continue the fight for US…
He’s the ONLY ONE fighting for us…. and he need our support now more than ever.
http://www.johnedwards.com
I checked teh Google… “Presidents who won the Iowa Caucus”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucus
Guess what…. any Dem who ran opposed and won the Iowa Caucus DID NOT win the Presidency. Not even Bill Clinton in 1992, Jimmy Carter came in behind the uncommitted
I think of it as a debate I couldn’t wait to see. Obama would kill him in the general and in a debate.
Cynically, money wise I think Romney will be the Rethug candidate. I would be shocked if the Evangelicals can carry the Huckster to the general, but anything can happen.
A fighter? Hmmmm. Who would that be?
Problem is, when it comes out of his mouth, it reminds me of RGJoe’s civil rights speech…
Good job Jane.
I mean, who the fuck in their right mind thought that George Bush had a prayer?
obviously, a whole shit-load of people *not* in their right minds…
Archer Danil Midlands and General Electric have spoken. It’s Huckabee!
Powerful close by Obama. He really is a great speaker.
That’s very true katymine; Clinton if I recall got 2-3% of the vote in Iowa in his first campaign’s term, but I’m thinking and hoping that won’t be the case.
I’m interested. Who then, do you think will win for the Dems in the general?
But when’s the first closed Democratic primary? Hillary could lose a lot of primaries between now and then. NH is open; what about SC?
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it agin: I am not happy about this at all. Obama is a Trojan Horse. And here’s why.
I’m going to sit this election out.
Crap. Once again a few idiots in Iowa have eliminated my candidate before I’ve been given a chance to vote for him.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080104/ap_po/dodd
I am afraid BO will wilt under the scrutiny of the MSM and the rethugs will steal another election. Wasn’t there something about a shady real estate deal in the news 6 or 7 months ago? About the time that Rove left the White House. THIS SMELLS LIKE A SET UP!!
I’m adding to that plea. Anything will help.
Long Road to Denver
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/IA-D.phtml
Obama 17 Delegates
Edwards 14 Delegates
Clinton 14 Delegates
booyah — I understand your support for Edwards, truly I do. But please don’t continue to repeat the comments. And on behalf of all of our Iowans in the audience, it’s incredibly insulting to them…many of whom worked their asses off for the Edwards campaign.
Truly, folks, don’t take it out on each other. This is one state — one caucus — there is a long, long road of voting to come before a candidate is picked. And, to be perfectly honest, Obama just gave one helluva speech.
Don’t start the circular firing squad before we even get past the first tiny blip in the battle. We are better than that. Or at least, we ought to be…
Hmm.
You’re always welcome of course – wait for it to warm up a little. But nothin’ happenin’ down here for the Dems. I’m afreaid it’s going to be very, very, very tough for Dem to be competitive in the general. But this is a red state anyway.
My favorite result of the night – Rudy Giuliani came in behind Ron Paul! *g*
I knew in 1998 that george would be the next presnit
there is some dispute about whether I am “In My Right Mind”, but they never proved anything in court …
I think it’s probably warmer in Florida than either Iowa or New Hampshire. You may need it just to thraw out.
Tweety is in love with the Obama narrative…
Cassie gets half way up the ladder and sees that the lake is now half ice and chooses to skip her exit dive. Time to go into the nice warm clubhouse and drink cocoa.
Night!
Well said, as usual.
Sigh. If the freakin’ republicans can get a sloppy moron out there to play populist — successfully — then why can’t we? I know the answers, it’s just that my brain seized and threatened to ooze out of my ears when I read Jane’s phrase “underdog populism” applied to Schmuckabee.
I knew in 1998 that george would be the next presnit
there is some dispute about whether I am “In My Right Mind”, but they never proved anything in court …
Thanks Jane, Christy and all the rest of the crew for all the hard work today. Even with the all the “database error please try again” issues it was still a great experience for all.
And how did Chimpy do in the debates?
Sheeple don’t get debates. They vote identity which seems to be what the young folks did tonight too.
You’re always welcome of course – wait for it to warm up a little. But nothin’ happenin’ down here for the Dems. I’m afreaid it’s going to be very, very, very tough for Dem to be competitive in the general. But this is really a red state anyway.
MSNBC website reports that Biden is dropping out, too, FWIW.
Thank you Christy.
Results:
Obama : 37.55%
Edwards : 29.81%
Clinton : 29.45%
Richardson : 2.10%
Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.13%
Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1763/1781
I’m up for halfheartedly supporting the Democratic nominee if that is Obama or Hillary. But if it is one of them, I will be up for working on a new progressive party on November 5, 2008.
Amen, Christy! It’s a marathon… and Edwards had an admirable showing, edged out Hill after spending far less… Game On! *g*
I knew in 1998 that george would be the next presnit
there is some dispute about whether I am ”In My Right Mind”, but they never proved anything in court …
From Dodd
Dear ,
I count the past year of campaigning for the presidency as one of the most rewarding in a career of public service.
Unfortunately, I am withdrawing from that campaign tonight.
But there is no reason to hang our heads this evening — only the opportunity to look towards a continuation of the work we started last January: ending the Iraq War, restoring the Constitution, and putting a Democrat in the White House.
I know a lot of you came to this email list through a shared desire to return our nation to one that respects the rule of law, and I want to make one thing clear to all of you:
The fight to restore the Constitution and stop retroactive immunity does not end with my Presidential campaign. FISA will come back in a few weeks and my pledge to filibuster ANY bill that includes retroactive immunity remains operative.
You’ve been an invaluable ally in the battle, and I’ll need you to stick by my side despite tonight’s caucus results.
So, one more time, thank you for all of your efforts throughout the course of this entire Presidential campaign.
We made a real difference in shaping the debate, and we’ll continue to do so in the coming days, weeks and years.
I’ll never forget you, and what we’ve fought for, together, over the past year.
Chris Dodd
It is a good thing with the increase in the youth vote but they are THE most expensive voter to turn out, the MOST unpredictable and least accountable.
Will have to see how the rest of the primaries turn out….
From the column you linked:
Obama’s gospel mistake
This is America. We have several places in the Constitution that mandate separation of church and state in an election. I don’t care if he’s an atheist, an agnostic, or ever sets foot in a Church. Religion should not be an issue. It isn’t for me.
You can’t hold Obama responsible for something the leader of a church he speaks at, anymore than you can hold me responsible for what the owner of a building does where I have a meeting tomorrow.
The King family’s behavior in auctioning their dad’s papers was reprehensible. Their stewardship of the King home, and other land was reprehensible. The King family is about greed, and more greed. And I got to see how one of them because she was a King, often failed to show up for work at a hospital where she was a resident M.D.
Dodd email – let’s get rolling on supporting him and fighting FISA:
I like to think progressive blogs helped demythologize him. Or at least we had fun trying.
Dodd gets more worthy of admiration every day. If only he had Reid’s job, we might have a viable working Congress.
Agreed. But the speech is his thang. When is the next dem debate? Will there be more.
Obama is a preacher type speaker, but really good at it.
That sure seems like a worthy goal to me!
Two possums are fighting in my front yard and there is a storm coming.
I will miss Dodd. He never had a shot but I was looking forward to voting for him in New York.
Why Jane? Please explain if you are not too tired.
Hear, Hear! And what can we do to support him for next Majority Leader?
Biden announcing he is dropping out.
Two possums are fighting in my front yard and there is a storm coming.
don’t they know the caucus is over and they don’t have to fight tonight?
The important question is who will Dunkin Hunter throw his support behind.
-G
Dodd saying he will still filibuster is great news.
I think that Obama and his young family looks good for America. He sure is brilliant so Im going to think the best for now.
It’s Bush’s top priority, so we definitely need to gear up for a fight.
Any other Virginians who can join me if I arrange a meeting with Webb’s office about it during the break?
Dodd is a class act and has my respect both as a candidate and as a Senator. I can not say the same for either Hillary or Barack.
I just left a thank you on his website and asked him to keep the phone-dialer tool working for the next round of FiSA.
Yep. That’s what’s next.
Barackwater
I really hope he is clean. This is the crap that will be getting thrown BO’s way when he gets the nomination.
http://www.slate.com/id/2155501
I’m disappointed Dodd has dropped out. I was still undecided between Dodd and Kucinich, and excited that perhaps I’d have a chance to make a difference in the primaries this year.
I agree with others here– we need to support him, and make it clear to the Democratic leadership that we will back LEADERS, not ditherers.
Too bad we can’t vote for Majority Leader, cuz my vote would be for Dodd…
He didn’t make the requirements for the Virginia primary ballot. :-(
(Virginia requires an insane number of signatures — 10,000, plus requirement of a certain number from each congressional district.)
If you haven’t caught it, check out Gradyon Carter’s comments on Rudy 912, and the article in this month’s Vanity Fair:
The Abominable No-Man and Mr. 9/11
A Tale of Two Guillianis
I see ya got scolded. I hear ya though. I disagree with Christy, I don’t think it’s insulting to Iowans to note the ridiculous influence this has and attention it has gotten. At the same time, Christy is right. This is just the beginning. Edwards can be happy ’cause of alot of the efforst of alot of those Hawkeyes (I just couldn’t say “Iowans” again. I think it sounds goofy – no insult intended.)
I can and I will.
Amen.
What does being an accountable voter mean? To whom, other than oneself? For what?
Good evening dear friends. Some O-shaped cookies to get us started? Or gingerbread for the three front-runners?
I don’t understand why Andrea Mitchell is speaking from the Hillary camp. Or any camp for that matter.
Thank you for that reminder. Marilyn
57% of the caucus participants under 30 went for Obama.
Clearly, he has tapped into something. That something is the future.
I never expected the young people to turnout in the nunbers they did.
I have never been happier to have been wrong.
Regardless of the candidate you supported, this bodes well for the future of our party. We should celebrate and embrace it.
I like those green ties, too. I wanna get me one.
Andrea is speaking from the Oligarch Camp.
She gets to go home and snubble up to Bubbles Greenspin later on.
Blech.
-G
Yep. It really does bode well.
The nation is running, nay, bolting away fronm Bushism.
-G
Hmm. not sure I’ve ever had the experience of snubbling.
This very scientific-sounding DailyKos diary makes it sound like Edwards is close to finished. Anybody have any insight into whether it is as scientific as it sounds, or whether it is closer to ass smoke?
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/3/215732/6649
Snuggle, not snubble.
-G
But the big winner — Huckabee.
Looking beyond tonight, actually I think the big winner is McCain. Huck will never win the Rethug nomination — they just won’t let it happen.
Which means the big winner is McCain because the others look so weak. He’s the one the MSM loves dearly, and he’s the one who may be hardest to beat.
Obama one among all groups, and he beat Hillary among women. He is going to use those figures to hammer her and Edwards as he wins the general.
Thanks for the suggesiton. I followed your suggestions via email.
Holy crap – 60% of the Repubs who showed up to vote identify as “evangelicals”. The ‘conservative’ wing? evidently just stayed home.
The 28% Bush-base just became 60% of Republican voters? That seems – surprising, relevant and possibly scary. The fact remains, however, that it takes raw numbers to win a General Election. And whether the fundies comprise 28%, or even 60% of Republican voters, that just plain isn’t enough to elect a President.
Disagree. Apply RGJoe and Chimpy and try again. Drape your arm around pond scum, you get slimed.
accountable…. showing up to man a phone bank, showing up and canvasing. Working at GOTV. Showing up to drive voters to the polls. There are a few, great kids who worked their assess off in my phone banks and GOTV projects for Kerry in 2004 but my reliable volunteers where middle & older voters.
Many times youth voters just find other things more important than voting.
Yes which is one reason why Huckaby won’t make it to the general.
I fear what those youngsters may be running towards.
Huckabee won’t make it to the general on the strenth of an Evangelical vote. They are scarry, but they don’t have those numbers and he also doesn’t have the money Romney has.
As a gay man I am BEYOND thrille d about Obama winning. Perfect he ain’t!’ but I believe the reason he gavefor allowing that lunatic sing on the tour. Your article has many errors, and as always in your articles you presume to speak for all homosexuals, WEll NOT ME!
I applaud him and I read a transcript of his meeting with African american ministers face to face where he said with out exception, that he believes their stance on homosexuals is WRONG and he strongly disagrees with them. That is good enough for me and from what I can see with 99% of my gay friends.
Sorry for the off-topic — Judge to Navy: No sonar within 12 miles of CA coast. From Wapo online
Jamie Lynn Spears and OK Magazine.
where do you live?
I am not certain these young ones who supported Obama in Iowa understand the issues involved with the “bipartisan”
debate.
Their participation in the process is encouraging. However, I worry about their grasp of the problems facing our country especially WRT governance.
There’s a lot of undoing and restoration needed in the process of governing. Have not seen/heard virtually any Republicans willing to admit the “mistakes” that have been made.
I do not feel confident about the leadership of someone who votes “present”on the Senate floor given the challenges of these times.
Huckabee – ick!
Oprah swung Obama, how long can that last?
Come Moo Hampshire and the other primary’s, Obama can’t win.
The country wants change. He just ain’t the change the country is really looking for.
And he COULDA swung the white male vote had he exhibited ANY semblance of cojones in dueling the corporatist beltway elite, which Oprah is FULL of!!!!!!
She’s a media mogul!!! Corporate establishment!!!
Off the backs of middle and lower class tv viewing uhmerika! A step above Jerry Springer!
I got a buck. Edwards moves up and on. Shilary is doomed, Mr. Obama had a good one caucas day, but after this, it’s all Edwards.
If it’s anyone else, the pub’s will be in it, to the final minute, and the voting shenanigans and BushCo last minute jive will swing it for the pub’s.
Any of you so called progressives better be wettin yer panties that Shil and Barack are NOT our dem party choice. Cuz it’s an invitation to continue the theft of your souls, lives, money and our republic.’
There WILL be witch hunting, book burning, further loss of civil rights, women will lose ALL the ground they gained in the past 4 decades, and if yer white, yer all right. The rest will be headed for camps, along with dissenting white progressives who openly voice bad thoughts against the beltway machine.
Save the country, save yerselves. You BEST elect Edwards, or we are ALL toast.
It ain’t rocket science, no matter HOW the beltway polls spin it.
Mz. Hamsher, I got TWO bucks, Obama loses bad in Moo Hampshire. *G*
Sounds reasonable. I dunno. I never though Edwards HAD to win Iowa. he did well. It’s gonna be tough for him. Not over.
Oprah Kicked Ass!
Got it. Thanks! Thought you were referring to accountable voting, rather than campaigning. Clearer now.
I agree that McCain is the luckiest one tonight. The repub field is just so repulsive that I can’t imagine any of them winning the nomination. That leaves McCain.
He’s no one’s first choice, but he’s far better than anyone else (or at least I imagine that’s what repubs will finally decide).
But, I don’t agree that he will be the hardest to beat. His age and health are a factor. He seems a bit ‘off’ lately. Bizarre.
It sounds like “reliable” would be a better word for that than “accountable.”
gotta run. ain’t over.
Arent election also won in the back rooms where deals are made? What deals are being hammered out do you think?
Dont we want the most electable candidate?
Sounds awfully cynical but I read about Edwards and Obama talking today.
re christy @ 58
whatever…. I’m very grateful to the Iowans for Edwards… but it is too much shades of the Iowan sheeple for Kerry in 2004 which started the landslide/avalanche for Kerry (I was a precinct observer in NM when I saw hordes of Dems voting for Kerry just because Iowa anointed him).
I’m really tired of one state deciding who gets to be defeated for the next presidency, which of course is a separate issue…) as I said earlier, I’m venting. I don’t see it as a circular firing squad at all…. rather more of a “we decide, you vote to confirm” fuck up.
Do Republican Iowans have the option to vote for Democratic candidates?
I recall hearing Romney tell a group to vote as many times as possible.
Later I learned that only Democratic caucuses have the option for people to cast more than one vote for a candidate and that the in Republican caucuses they vote only for a single candidate. It seemed strange to me that Romney wouldn’t have known this fact. His comment seemed hopelessly uniformed coming from a Republican candidate for president.
I agree. When I heard that W won 40% of the hispanic vote in the Texas governor’s race, I knew he would be the next president.
I am an Obama supporter, I am very excited that Iowa, (Iowa! pinching myself) could vote this strongly for him. I would be very happy with Obama, Clinton, Edwards, or even Dodd — but the really exciting news for me here is the passionate support the democrats had there, turnout more than twice what the republicans could get — and it’s not as if the republicans didn’t have an exciting race on their hands!
Go Democrats!
I would like to add that it won’t all happen in the 2008 cycle. It’s a really long battle.
jo6pac
Same here.
Obama will be the next President, I believe, and I’m proud to have him.
By Chimpy I guess you mean Bush, and the cliche that has somefirepups so hot and bothered linking Lieberman to Obama is as worthless and full of wasted energy as it is misplaced.
Lieberman is drumming himself into irrelevancy, and if the Democrats want to finish the job, they need to win in 2008 by a bigger margin in the House and Senate and get rid of dead wood that votes with Bush like Jello Jay.
In your excoriation of Leiberman, do you understand most Dems like Feinstein and everyone on Judiciary but Kennedy and Feingold are voting exactly the way Lieberman wants them to vote?
McCain may be “lucky” enough to be the last winner of the GOP “none of the above” contest, but I don’t think that puts him in a particularly strong position in the general. He has the advantage that he’s not completely insane (though he is a warmonger, since before Bush was) and the Beltway press loves him, but that’s pretty weak tea.
I do not believe that Barack Hussein Obama can be elected in racist, xenophobic America.
Karl Rove’s wet dream.
I was referring to Rev. James Meeks…
They said Kennedy was unelectable because he was Catholic. They said Reagan was unelectable because he was divorced.
I wouldn’t have put it quite that way but I agree. Have always thought the reason the MSM was flogging Obama and Clinton was that the PTB felt they would be the easiest to best in the general.
Plus the media’s lazy and they’re easy stories.
From all the reports, it was an huge cadre of youth who did the work on the ground for Obama.
I think we should be very careful about criticising the youth vote – Kerry was not an inspiring candidate and the youth I know held their noses when voting for him. If Obama continues to inspire them, I think you will see consistent effort from youth volunteers – and I think we should be cheering their engagement and encouraging them (even if we hope they shift candidates).
The Youth I know don’t like partisan talk – not because they believe in bipartisanship but because they hate both parties. At the moment Obama is tapping that … even if we see him appealling to the rightfully dreaded bipartisan meme.
I think we need to take the anti-partisan move seriously and recognize the blinders we have as hyper partisans when it comes to relating to youth voters.
Night, all.
Larue, I’ll lay down a $20.00 spot and betcha “Moo” Hampshire goes for Obama.
-G
night prof.
We are a much better country than you think.
Well all those wonderful smart WHITE democrats in Iowa do!
I think I’ll stick with their opinion!
1 precinct still not reporting
Results:
Obama : 37.57%
Edwards : 29.76%
Clinton : 29.46%
Richardson : 2.11%
Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.14%
Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1780/1781
I believe he can be elected, even though much of America is as you described, and many who make between $100-200K a year couldn’t name the candidates, or tell you how many cert. votes it takes to get before the Supremes or the difference between a cert. vote and a Cert mint, who any committee chairmen in the Senate or House, but do know who Jamie Lynn Spears is.
That’s my fear. To paraphrase something Bill Maher said: “The republicans were drooling over the chance to run against Hillary but then she began doing so well that they thought they’d have a better chance against ‘the black guy’.”
Kerry was the first guy to win Iowa and win the nomination. Carter didn’t actually win Iowa. Uncommitted did.
I would like to think Americans will vote for candidate Obama but have lived all over the country and among many different socioeconomic groups.
Just don’t see it….yet.
FWIW, I believe some of the conservative wing stayed home, some voted for Obama. Having grown up on the other side of the Mississippi River, there’s a midwestern conservative mindset that find Obama’s approach attractive (my Mom among them). Truth is, I think they would also vote for him in the general.
Nice response and I so agree with you.
And Clinton finished third in ‘92! Auspicious…?
If it’s a reaaallly big precinct, could Dodd still pull it off?
And may I please have my pony now?
Stop looking and listening to his speechifying! Look at his record! Where’s his money come from? What are his policies on interventionism (which is BREAKING OUR COUNTRY), immigration, Iraq, Iran, NAFTA, rebuilding the middle class (not a SINGLE THING outta his mouth to do so, ya know), and so on.
Geez. Oration. How grand.
IIRC no one contested Iowa in 1992 because Harkin was running. I don’t think it is the same for Hillary because she clearly contested there.
Final Results:
Obama : 37.58%
Edwards : 29.75%
Clinton : 29.47%
Richardson : 2.11%
Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.14%
Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1781/1781
http://headonradionetwork.com/…..l-college/
Dropping Out of Electoral College
from HORN News by NeoNinja
From In These Times: Maryland is the first state to pass the National Popular Vote (NPV) into law, and several others are right behind By MARTHA BIONDI A Stanford University computer scientist named John Koza has formulated a compelling and pragmatic alternative to the Electoral College. It’s called National Popular Vote (NPV), and has been hailed as “ingenious” by […]
does this mean no pony, either?
I have worked several races since 2004, some were non-partisan races such as city counsel, one was in Tempe where ASU has over 58K students. One candidate was an ASU student and still the same issue applies. Until this last August I had three of them living with me.
It would be wonderful if finally the youth woke up and started working to make change. Just talked to several people who are running campaigns who are also saying the same thing. I would love to be proved wrong.
Oh Kirk … I am sorry, no pony this time.
but we can keep hoping …
If all people need is a pretty face then Madison avenue advertising companies will always find someone they own who can do the job.
What I’m interested in is how those ideas get translated into governance. I don’t believe Obama has a clue. His idea of bipartisanship may sound comforting, but it flies in the face of 25 years of partisan hate from Republicans who equate bipartisanship with rape. Obama won’t change their minds.
Nope, you can’t play ball with ‘em the way Hillary or Obama want.
We’ve got to beat them in elections, gain a working majority and then pound home the victories. We’ve got to elect a president and combine that with Congress to enforce the laws and achieve the changes which have come to the fore during this campaign.
Obama doesn’t even get to square one because they won’t even answer the phone when he calls them to say hello.
Edwards on Larry King now.
I agree about the youth inspiration. The one thing I’ll give Obama, he has a lot of people working for him around here in VA. They don’t seem to have the decentralized decision-making that was one of the great things about the Dean campaign, but they’re doing stuff here. One of my frustrations with the Edwards campaign is that it’s much more traditional in that regard — the nomination is going to be decided before Virginia, so they don’t want anything from us other than travel to the early primary states.
I still like Edwards’ fighting spirit better, but I think the young voters are responding to Obama’s promise to get things done and encouraging people to join in on that regardless of party, not the idea of compromise. If he does get the nomination, I think there’s a reasonable chance he’ll get a movement going that will be on board with an attempt at compromise, and then get pissed off when Republicans are the obstacle. Again, since I already know that they are, I’m more in line with Edwards, but I think it could work out.
FYI, Peggy Noonan is having a cow. Bwahaha. Clearly she HATES Hillary, but look how she turns all slithery when she talks about that…Huckabee fellow and the poor misguided souls who seem to support him.
Paving the way for a more deserving, respectable, late-entry establishment candidate?
I absolutely agree, Stun. And young as they are, they are adults. And though I’m an Edwards supporter, I think it’s important to keep the enthusiasm high as it has been rare in electoral history. Though New Hampshire weighs bigger overall, based on primary history, the revamped schedule suggests SC and NV will want to demonstrate their independence from conventional wisdom, too.
Obama clearly has the edge now. None of the three is on the ropes. A critical endorsement awaits: who will Richardson back? Clinton and Obama will be pursuing that especially hard now.
On to New Hampshire!
The best thing about this result is that it prevents the press from anointing a winner already. Personally, despite my slight misgivings about Senator Clinton, I think that either of the top three candidates would make a fine president. What the party really needs is a primary season that remains undecided as deep into the process as possible so that a large fraction of the electorate gets to feel like they played a part in the selection. The front loaded scheduling sucks regarding that purpose, so any result that works against a clear overpowering victory by any one candidate serves. Here in Iowa, the only result that would have been bad would have been a lopsided Clinton victory, because that would have fueled the perception of inevitability. For this purpose the best result probably would have been an Edwards win since that would have made it easier for him to stick around. But if he can stay in it, this will do. I’m OK with Obama’s Bambi stchtik. For us progressives, his race just isn’t an issue, but I’m afraid that in America in 2008 race is an issue and I think that this general theme is his way of defusing it. America may be ready to elect a black man as president, but not and ANGRY black man. You can call that posturing, I call that realistic. You could see the result in Diamond Bill Bennett’s comments on CNN tonight. The bigots have been neutralized. It’s actually pretty amazing.
Look.. let me clarify, I am not criticizing Obama for his name, I am simply pointing out, what CNN stated tonight, what the rethugs will do to destroy him as a candidate.
I truly wish Americans could look at the “person”, but I have no such faith in the average American voter (sheeple), given that Bush deposed Hussein, and Osama was the alleged perpetrator or 9/11.
The rethugs will capitalize on this to the maximum extent possible, and possilby to the detriment of America at large… I do not believe the guy is electable from that point of view.
But I DO believe he is a republican in sheep’s clothing.
Does his middle name have any particular significance for you or your perception of his electability other than it’s his middle name given to him by his parents?
History has also shown that a lot of wet dreams don’t get much father than that.
Look at Edwards record and not his speechifying.
-G
Short of Kucinich or Gravel, they are all pretenders.
Possum Pie.
Snow cones, if it’s a COLD storm.
SUZ!!!!! *G*
” . . . Compadres, in the OLLLLLDDDDD, Sierra Madres.”
I been bad, kickin sissy butt non Edwards supporters.
I sweah, progressive wanna be’s in sheeple’s cloths . . . .
You are NOT progressive, if you support inside beltway elitist ideologies!
Progressives support and enable the masses.
It’s not rocket surgery, ya know, people.
I know they MEAN well . . . .
*G*
At Huckabee Central, Cheers for Evangelical Base
from NYT > Home Page by MICHAEL LUO and DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK
Polls showed that more than 8 in 10 of Mike Huckabee’s supporters described themselves as evangelicals.
Although I fear the Repuds will pull out al the stops to destroy anyone, Clinton, Obama, Edwards….there were many people who had the same fears in the run-up to 2006.
The GOP machine is busted all to hell and their magic doesn’t work anymore.
-G
*waving*
I’m shocked — shocked! — to see gambling here.
While we all see much stupidity than the common demoninator that is America, the way the vote will be focused if there were only one issue and that were Iraq, I guarandamtee you Americans can see beyond any bullshit trying to subliminally link Obama’s name and 911 or Sadam.
One of the things he will capatalize on, and I’ve heard him start to, is that Bush and Condi’s being asleep at the switch helped make Osama a household name. And although Osama alone isn’t what is the biggest threat–it’s the cells that have sprung up because Bush and Chertoff are incompetent, and also because failed foreign policy from the Bush administration exponentially nurturing hatred for Americans.
I remind you the Democratic Congress is failing to stop Iraq right now.
Final Results:
Well, yeah – for the Dem’s. I’m wondering why I haven’t seen final numbers for the Repugs – after all, their process was much simpler.
I think I’m detecting a distinct lack of enthusiasm there.
If this turns into the Wall Street wing mobilizing to destroy the Huckster menace- the goopers may very well destroy themselves.
In 2004, Kerry was nominated on “electability,” in part because there was this conventional wisdom that the GOP “wouldn’t be able to attack him” on national security because of his military record.
Yes, they’ll attack Obama (or Edwards, or Clinton) with the worst kind of underhanded crap if they’re nominated. But I think we’re fooling ourselves if we think we know which they’ll be able to attack most effectively, and shooting ourselves in the foot if we make that a significant factor in the nomination.
Their attacks have nothing to do with truth or even plausibility, and the only way to defend against them is to fight back and stomp them down, not to believe we can avoid them.
well now its on to NH…interesting to see if obama continues winning….
i really don’t care how the goopers go down, but the fact they could be self-destructing is very sweet to this lifelong republican.
If this turns into the Wall Street wing mobilizing to destroy the Huckster menace- the goopers may very well destroy themselves.
Gee, that’d be awful…
It’s so interesting to read about what people are interested in.
By the way, speaking of Osama, and the many vibrant cells in America that idiots call “the homeland” who never did before 911 –I read the term in Ibsen many years ago so I don’t know what all this crap is about homeland. We didn’t call it the homeland when American shared the last wars it shared–Korea and WWII–
how has the Bush administration and their billions pissed away done with picking up/destroying Osama and his nerve centers?
He continues to put out tapes and he’s on chronic dyalisis.
I’m shocked — shocked! — to see gambling here.
reply
< [whispered<br />
“Your winnings, Señor TSF.”
Hillary came in third but…
They will unload the whole truck no matter who the nominee is. Right. The key is response.
That’s what I’m a saying. The Reagan coalition is in tatters.
A few more pennies on the gallon of gas, the continued meltdown of world events.
The fundies and the moneylenders and the libertarians are at each others throats.
The GOP is turning into a rump party.
-G
Enough about the winners. Let’s talk about the losers.
1. The GOP. Almost twice as many people turned out for the Dems than for the GOP. That’s bad news for the GOP brand.
2. Thompson/McCain. Fred Thompson clearly wants to quit and throw his support to McCain. Trouble is, you really can’t throw your support to someone who’s getting fewer votes that you are. It just doesn’t work that way. Which means they’re both going to be fighting for the Mummified Zombie vote in New Hampshire.
3. Hillary. The phrase “just not that into you” comes to mind.
4. FOX News. It’s going to be hard for them to explain the exclusion of Ron Paul from their debates. The GOP desperately wants to avoid talking about the war, and you can’t do that with Ron Paul on the stage. Still, it looks really bad when he pulls more than twice as many votes as Giuliani.
*waving* to Late Nite pups…
thanks to Jane and Jeralyn and all who froze their toki off to bring Iowa to the Lake….
and now off to bed…
dreaming of ponies…..
I heard that both Independents and Republicans voted in the Democratic caucus. Why would Repugs vote in the Democratic caucus when they could vote in their own, and will they also vote Democratic in the general? Or could they once again be selecting who our candidate should be? Is it possible they are pulling a Mitt? Remember what he said when it was discovered that he had voted Democratic, that he voted in a Democratic primary to choose the worst possible candidate, the easiest to beat. Which, incidentally, is the same reason that I wanted Huck to win. I don’t believe the electorate will elect a person who doesn’t believe in evolution or believes that the earth is circa 6,000 years old in the general.
Obama’s speech gave me goosebumps. I’m old enough to remember JFK, saw him in person in Berkeley, and I’ve been involved in political campaigns since Eugene McCarthy ran. I like Edwards and I would vote for Clinton if she got the nomination, but I think Obama is a true political star. I think he’s smart and tough. It’s really hard for me to understand all this badmouthing in the moment of this amazing Democratic victory in Iowa. We Democrats have waited many years for such a moment.
I believe the Republicans actually put their caucus votes in a box (paper ballots!) and send them to state GOP headquarters. I think they call them in before that, and probably aren’t supposed to report them at the caucus sites, so the rigid top-down nature of the GOP may be what’s slowing down their results. (Also, they started half an hour later.)
Iowans for Jihadist Theocracy.. Huckabee.. for goodness sakes.
i hope this 1st win gives obama a stiffer spine and he’ll support those dems in congress who’re trying to restore democracy in america… thats the only way i can support him….no more mealy-mouthness from him
LOL!
I was mildly stunned, but grinning, when I saw that Thompson had actually come in third.
I wonder if Romney is happy about the money out of his own wallet he spent!?
I’m not supporting him…. after month after month of mealy-mouthiness, ditching controversial votes, Lieberlingnism and everything else, there’s nothing he can do to win my vote over any other Dem. I’ll hold my nose and vote for him over Huckabee of course, but that’s it. Hillary and Edwards I can live with….
The GOP is looking like a pack of grumpy old men and religious kooks.
The Demographics of the US are changing…..
Some areas faster than others.
Get your licks in now because it’ll be time to close ranks pretty soon.
-G
considering he’s barely been campaigning, as far as I can tell.
Take away the race issue, and Obama and Clinton STILL remain beatable, SLAUGHTERED, by the pub’s.
The pub’s are droolin like the wolf in the cartoon where the sheepdogs change shifts.
Let’s hope OUR sheepdogs slaughter the wolf like in the cartoon.
Shil and Obama are NOT good sheepdogs.
Or could they once again be selecting who our candidate should be?
I certainly don’t think they’re above a dirty trick of any type – but I think that if that were in play tonight, HRC would have fared mo betta.
Thompson can quit and if he has the power to throw votes, throw them to McCain, but given some of the issues that resonate with the base, I’m not sure much of those votes wouldn’t go to Romney as repugnant as he is to me, but not to the base and Romney has tried the Pollyana approach lately to appeal accross the Republican spectrum.
I expect Thompson to stay in through Florida.
I think and hope that stat is very significant, but I also remember that the Iowa caucus is still a relatively small part of Iowa.
By saying that the youth dislike both parties and Obama is tapping into the idea of working for everyone, are we saying the youth don’t want their freedoms back that have been so badly damaged recently?
Has Obama even addressed the wire tapping issue? The torture issue? Has he even addressed the excessive use of signing statements saying that Bush doesn’t have to obey the laws? I do not understand why these issues are not playing out on the campaign trail. However I do believe that to the extent these issues are not address, now, they will not be corrected. Will Obama correct these?
Please someone reassure me that he has addressed these serious worries.
From the intro to Keith Olbermann’s new book:
Is this where we duke it out with I told you so’s and contradicting articles demonstrating why Edwards IS progressive, and the other aren’t? *G*
Hoss, I am SO a Kuch fan. If Edwards picks him for Veep, we will have the progressive revolution of our dreams, provided they don’t get Kennedy’d before the general.
GRAVEL? What, are you some kinda psycho alter commie? The man’s nutz. Pure phrellin nutz. Right wing to the core!
N ya almost had me . . . *G*
I heard the exact same negative and defeatist rhetoric in the run up to teh 2006 elections.
You act as if the “Pubs” have any amount of credibility left.
They got money, venom, but they aint got much more.
-G
Do you mind being specific about what you perceive the Republicans to be drooling over?
I’ve heard a lot of this talk, but I’ve never seen them more vulnerable. I’d love to debate the Republican candidate, and Obama will shred him and Edwards will shred whoever they have for VP if that turns out to be the ticket.
Still miles to go.
Wow. There are a lot of unhappy angry people here. I’m an Edwards supporter myself and what I’m doing is saving my anger for the Republican Party. This is just the start of the voting. We still have a ways to go. Tonight, no matter what the press thinks, was not a corronation.
See my comment at 212. Will Obama address the lost of constituional righs? Will he denounce torture once and for all and hold accountable those who have supported it? Will he stop the right of signing statements so that the president does not have to obey the very laws Congress passes?
Has he specifically, the concretely, denounced torture?
GrandmaJ,
Obama did speak out and say that he’d close Guantanimo and restore habeus corpus in NH.
-G
“Plus the media’s lazy and they’re easy stories.”
This my progressive pally wally, is as big of a myth as is the one that DB Cooper lived from the jump.
The media is NOT lazy, and NOTHING they do is easy. It’s all bought and paid for, and lorded over with feudal rightousness and a big ass whip comes down on the backs of any media reporters who don’t toe the line.
Stop with the fantasies, already!! *G*
There MUST be a pony in here somewhere, what with all the …
Are the Republicans drooling over
1) Their collosal fuckup and death train in Iraq growing a whole new population of severely orthopedic and neruologically injured VA patients they can’t care for? Are they drooling over the failure to get protective vehicles and helmets to Iraq while pissing away billions and loosing millions of dollars worth of fifles?
2) Are they drooling over the mismanagement of every agency they touch with Katrina a great example? New Orleans is still fucked.
3) Are they drooling over the way they’ve trashed the Constitution and destroyed evidence and are afraid to have anyone but a puppet AG investigate?
Help me with the concept of Pub drooling. I want to dig into it.
” restore habeus corpus in NH”
restore it just in New Hampshire? :)
just kidding…
I don’t know if he addressed them, but my borderline rethug fiancee who doesn’t like negativity sees obama as a non-politician, politician. I don’t know how (probably because of lack of information and not reading blogs like me.) So if independent/rethugs see him as “different” maybe that is the appeal. He certainly has not stood up for anything that I feel is important in the real world, again that I am aware of.
Excellent insight and judgement Tithonia.
David E., one homo to another, the McClurkin shit was the biggest turn-off for me against Obama. But there’s lots of others (Social Security framing, generally the whole reinforcing right-wing ways of looking at things). But I really really hope you don’t sit out the election even if Obama wins the nomination. Seriously, let’s say it’s Obama vs. Huck, Huck wins, and we all get shipped to the camps (yeah, I’m being hyperbolic, but the results would undoubtably be pretty dire for us queers). Are you going to want to remember that you didn’t do all you could to stop him?
On the other hand, you do have a voice that is listened to (more than mine), I do hope you continue to do what you can to keep Obama from being our nominee. I mean, I’ll vote for him if he’s the nominee, but I’d vastly prefer, say, Edwards.
Virtually speaking, get out of the left over Jim Jones Not So Kewl Aid!!!
That stuff’ll KILL ya!!!!
*G*
But, I’ll take a virtual bet, and apologize 20 times if Obama DOES win Moo Hampshire.
You do the same, Bart Simpson style on a blackboad, if he DOES NOT win? *G*
We’ll let each other determine the prose of the post for the loser, if that’s ok with you?
I love this stuff . . . thanks for playing!!! *G*
On a less capricious note from my side, why is it you think he can win in the Great White North of The Moo?
(for the uninitiated, New Hampshire is a Guernsey Cow state, hence the Moo Hampshire).
Would you care to explain what you mean by “such a moment”?
I’ve been waiting to elect someone like Howard Dean or John Edwards because they would help out somebody like me. I don’t see Obama doing anything for anybody but himself. He reminds me of Bill Clinton in that respect.
So, what “moment” is so important that we have to sacrifice getting real leadership in the presidency?
I generally agree with the analysis. I would have done some weighting of the Iowa margin in terms of predicting the out of New Hampshire “bounce” but it is the only place I really differ. And while Edwards did marginally out poll Hillary — a Margin that won’t count in earned delegates, he doesn’t really have the financial assets to match both Hillary and Obama, — I am not even certain he can get through Feb. 5.
I too am sorry to see Dodd disappear from the scene, I was planning to see if I could put together a Dodd — Al Franken sub-caucus at the forthcoming Minnesota Precinct Caucuses. Now it looks like I will have to depend on my 2007 New Year’s Resolution, which was to singlemindedly vote for experience in Foreign Policy — and at this juncture that points to Hillary.
But Hillary needs to re-tool her operation and put forward both people and issues that will attract younger women in particular, and younger people generally. I can’t for the life of me understand why she keeps putting all the old spinners we are so familiar with from Bill’s WH out on TV as part of her team. She had Ann Lewis on tonight — a perfectly fine woman, but just listening to the voice reminded me of Lewinsky era apinning.
Candidates on Issues
He’s stood up for these although there are many gaps in every candidates’ health care proposals including for the poor and for average Americans.
He is also Getting the hell out of Iraq in significant numbers and not building endless permanant bases for one. I consider that fiarly “real world.” It was a huge issue according to polling at Iowa last night. It will be huge in the general.
Uh, you ever heard white people talk about black people, midwest, south, coast to coast?
We are NOT a better nation, yet, when the minority of racists control the beliefs, policies and dictates of the majority. Course, the majority just MIGHT be as prejudiced now, as they were in Jim Crow times or before.
Nah, there’s way too many mean people, of all classes, who have hate in their hearts for blacks, or ANY non-whites.
N that’s why liberals, and social programs, and progressives, are better for the masses, than the ugly beltway mofo’s in power we’ve had for so long.
The masses. The rich want to use them, and hold them down, and use their labor and earnings power to take, keep and wield control and power. Consolidate the wealth upwards.
N suddenly, the middle class is now like the upper lower class was, a few decades ago. White, black, yellow, brown, pink or homo or lesbian or Bhuddist . . . they are all disenfranchised, along with the sick, infirm, unemployed, poor and desperate.
I want my republic back. Does anyone else?
Act now then. Elect progressives, not progressives in sheeple clothing.
Harumph.
We have not one but three smart, attractive, progressive candidates, running against a field of deeply flawed, unorganized Republicans.
Google maps has results by county, and it’s clear that all of the big three had their own areas of strength. Looks like Obama got more of the big cities, though, so he won.
But it does mean that Jane’s not quite correct in her first paragraph: what she saw wasn’t mirrored across the state. Hillary won the western counties; Edwards won the rural areas.
This country made a huge mistake when it rejected the candidacy of Howard Dean. The only reason I remain political is because it’s been left to those who knew better, to repair the damage and havoc wreaked upon the world because we failed to put Howard Dean in the White House when we, as a nation, had the chance.
I look at the field of top tier Democrats in this race, and see folks that sold out our values when it really mattered.
Perhaps I expect too much. But if a street musician can try to alter the course of civilization, I should be able to expect that the folks striving for the White House, would begin to exhibit the same integrity and backbone that the Chairman of their Party demonstrates on a daily basis.
Sorry.
Damn straight hoss, or hossette. Damn straight.
Accountable. Top to bottom, start to finish.
Damn Straight.
Thanks.
Perhaps everyone needs to calculate into their thoughts the prospect of Bloomberg of NYC running given a nomination from Sam Nunn, David Boron and their friends. Should Huck actually win the Republican Nomination, You will find your old Moderate Republians all over the place. It does look as if fairly serious plans have been laid, and the little bitty nominating convention is well planned. Peroit got 19% in the 92 election — I think an independent Bloomberg could add ten points to that.
Mz. Sara, I’ve been remiss not to attend to Mr. Bloomberg’s recent publicity.
If yer Sara Robinson, I read ya on GNB.
If yer Sara, on another site, I might have read ya.
You bring up a HUGE point, no one in here tonite has mentioned.
Bloomberg is gonna cut a lotta ways. And he MIGHT cut up any Dem’s, that are weak in ANY way.
Only Edwards, WITH A PERFECT VP PICK, could beat Bloomberg if ‘THE MACHINE’ gins up to run with him at some point.
Oddly enuff, I fear Bloomberg, at the last minute, than I hope for Gore, at the last minute.
Bloomberg is by FAR the wilder card, and the most dangerous. The pub’s seem to have about 3 different ways to steal ‘08, and the Dem’s, so far, nada. Zip. Zilch.
Thanks Ma’am, for heightening the fears the PROGRESSIVES, have seemingly forgot to fear.
Sigh.
“When will they ever learn, when will they EVVVVVVVER, Learn.”
Whoa, TexBetsy . . . . this is huge . . what state adopted it? Where’s it headed? What’s it mean for ‘08 General Election? You got THIS Larue’s attention!
Bodes nothing if they drink the same old ages kewl aid.
Bodes nothing.
Misbegotten intent, and a lowering of the threshold of real understanding of what life and the world are all about.
Especially if they are voting for Obama.
They got roused up, but didn’t do their homework, about what he REALLY means for their present, and furture.
Cuz he ain’t empowering underpaid Starbucks barrista’s, or anyone else.
He’s cutting the middle class out, and apart, of any future.
Sigh. The young, the foolish, the fast food workers of our lives.
Obama will NOT invigorate a middle class revival.
Harumph.
And if you vote teh gay vote for Obama, out of some misbegotten sense of believing he CARES about gays, you will be deserting your responsibility as a citizen, and voting for YOUR issues, and the issues of others who MIGHT be in your camp, gay or not.
That would be, ahem (clears throat), PROGRESSIVES!!!
‘Kin progressives who have support your fight for rights, equality and justice like we fought to defeat jim Crow, advance women’s rights, and gay rights in general.
Progressives have covered your backs, marched in your Castro, stepped up on college campus’s since the 70’s, fought the AIDS issues, and continue to so so, for all the right reasons. I did, anyways. And I know many others, who did too.
Why in hell would you sell us out, for a corporatist shill of a pig devoted to big business?
When you could support Edwards, or Kuch, who REALLY have yer back, AND MINE?
Together we stand, divided, you lose more than I do. But we all lose, HORRIBLY!!!
We’ve phreakin lost enuff, my friend. All of us.
Please reconsider. Progressive. For Progressive Agenda’s. Yours. And Mine. Win/Win!!!
Great. So they went for the guy who wants to reacharound… sorry, reach out to the Repugs.
And the Repugs choose a fundy. So that’s who he’s reaching out to.
Looks like the war is beginning to be over and we lost.
It’s early to be dour. New Hampshire isn’t Iowa.
I totally agree with larue (and I’m white and straight.)
Face it, Obama is a shill for Wall Street, Big Pharma, Big Insurance, etc., just like Hillary. Only John Edwards is on the side of the Poor and the Working People.
Obama talks a good game, but that’s all it is – a political game.
John Edwards believes, truly believes. He may go down, but he’s going to go down with a message that he truly believes in — Power to the People!
Power to the People!
That is one of the most simplistic analyses I’ve seen all year and it’s dead wrong.
It’s not how well it predicts who wins the Presidency, it’s who wins the NOMINATION. For Democrats it’s actually highly accurate, when you strip out the Native Sons.
January 19, 2004 - John Kerry (38%), John Edwards (32%), Howard Dean (18%), Richard Gephardt (11%) and Dennis Kucinich (1%)
January 24, 2000 – Al Gore (63%), Bill Bradley (37%)
February 12, 1996 – Bill Clinton (unopposed)
February 10, 1992 – Tom Harkin (76%), “Uncommitted” (12%), Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%) and Jerry Brown (2%) ~ Harkin was “native son” and no one else campaigned
February 8, 1988 – Richard Gephardt (31%), Paul Simon (27%), Michael Dukakis (22%) and Bruce Babbitt (6%) ~ Gephardt was a near “native son”
February 20, 1984 - Walter Mondale (49%), Gary Hart (17%), George McGovern (10%), Alan Cranston (7%), John Glenn (4%), Reubin Askew (3%) and Jesse Jackson (2%)
January 21, 1980 -, Ted Kennedy (31%)
January 19, 1976 – “Uncommitted” (37%), Jimmy Carter (28%) Birch Bayh (13%), Fred R. Harris (10%), Morris Udall (6%), Sargent Shriver (3%) and Henry M. Jackson (1%)
January 24, 1972 – “Uncommitted” (36%) and Edmund Muskie (36%), George McGovern (23%) , Hubert Humphrey (2%), Eugene McCarthy (1%), Shirley Chisholm (1%) and Henry M. Jackson (1%)[8]
Because Tom Harkin was a native son candidate no one actually ran in Iowa that year. They viewed New Hampshire as being the more important. All the candidates (other than Harkin) had low numbers, within one percentage point.
This system is used in Davis, California for City Council elections. It takes the “surplus” votes of winners in the CC election and distributes them to their “second choices” (actually a scalar of the surplus x #2 options in % of that candidates supporters). So lets say that a candidate wins with 55% of the vote, and only 35% would have been needed to win the seat. That means a scalar of 20% can be applied to the second choices. If another candidate then clears the threshhold the process then continues with their #2 options. And so on until the seats are filled.
This often helps slate politicians who can collectively use the strength of a popular leader to apply that popularity to the down-ticket candidatures. Let’s say Mark Miller (Green) gets 55%, then two Republicans get 20%, and the next Green candidate gets 3%, another 2%, another 1%. The Pugs second choices were each other. But Miller’s was to the top Green. Thus he would apply up to 35% of his votes to his next Greenie (now at 37%). And then the second and thirds of that candidate would accrue as much as 15%…but that wouldn’t successfully beat the Republican. But one seat would successfully shift to another Green.
It’s still early in the game. Believe it or not, Edwards still has a good shot at it. Although I have ‘no problem’ with Obama, there’s still a hope for Edwards. By mid February, we’ll have the big picture.