Login HereKucinich has thrown his second-round support behind Obama, and the rumor is Richardson will do the same. The Iowa Independent chalks it up to a desire to hurt Edwards' chances with second round votes, damaging his campaign and potentially elevating Richardson into the #3 spot as the race moves forward.
Likewise, the Clinton campaign would like nothing more than to take out Obama, and rumor has it they are willing to take a third place finish if they can push Edwards into first. Read Desmoinesdem's excellent article on second choice math over at MyDD, but it isn't just the candidates who won't reach 15% viability who can direct their votes -- candidates who reach viability can also direct and swap votes. If Hillary can help Edwards, she probably will.
The beneficiary of much of the Huckabee/Romney squabble seems to be McCain. As Tom Schaller notes, if Huckabee can damage Romney in Iowa, he goes into New Hampshire wounded and an easier target for McCain. Also, as McCain is on the ascent in New Hampshire, his support is coming from "independents" and pulling largely from -- Barack Obama. McCain could actually damage Obama's New Hampshire chances more than anyone, and thus rumor has it the Obama campaign may be thinking of taking McCain on directly there next week.
*Update: The Richardson campaign reports that they have made no deals.
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Jane!!!!
Jane!
Dont you mean Obama?
Kucinich has thrown his second-round support behind Edwards, and the rumor is Richardson will do the same. The Iowa Independent chalks it up to a desire to hurt Edwards’ chances with second round votes, damaging his campaign and potentially elevating Richardson into the #3 spot as the race moves forward.
that is what i believe bastids!
How was the Edwards campaign event with Mellencamp? I thought we were going to get a report on that. ;-) I’d rather read about it from you and not Joke Line.
yea
Didn’t Dennis throw his support behind Obama the other day?
they are throwing it to Obama (not Edwards), right?
Jane:
Typo: the Clinton campaign…
interesting, interesting, interesting…
Does anyone know when we will get the final results of the Iowa caucus?
Huh?
Hi, Jane, and all!
At last it is beginning. I hope it goes well for my candidate, Edwards, but at least we can start thinking about the end product.
I have married friends going to the Dem caucus in Ames tonight. One is going for Biden on the first and her husband for Edwards. They also like Obama and Dodd. I will be interested to hear what they finally decide on.
fixed
Kucinich has thrown his second-round support behind Obama…
If this is true, Kucinich has regained a good deal of the respect I lost for him when he designated Obama for his second-round votes.
If Hillary can help Edwards, she probably will.
you mean that HRC might ask people who just got finished voting for her to switch on the second ballot and vote for Edwards instead? I dunno about that one.
I mean, if my candidate came to me and asked me to do that, solely for the purpose of screwing over someone else, I’d be re-thinking my original support - which would then seem to be of a person who seems craven, and back-room dirty.
Well, now I feel a litle better over my goof on the previous thread.
Everyone refresh please — error fixed. Jane’s getting ready to head out to cover more ground today, sorry for the blip.
yes,must be type o
Wow this stuff is cold-blooded! Hillary wants to take third to knock out Obama with Edwards? Ouch! That would be as nasty as hoping Kucinich drops out so that his disappointed hot redheaded spouse will divorce him and be available for… hmmm… I may have to go peel that Kucinich bumper-sticker off my car!
Directing and swapping votes out of a viable candidate preference group can be very risky. Some caucus-goers leave the building after the first round, which can change the denominator for second-round viability. It’s easy to slip below 15% even as you think you’re “helping” other candidates achieve it.
From the Richardson link in the post:
Sounds like bad news. I hope this doesn’t happen.
This is getting too weird for me, although I do enjoy Jane’s on the spot reporting.
Ah. I knew this caucus stuff was complicated, but I was having trouble wrapping my mind around Jane’s original post.
anybody cold and hungry?….have some black beans and rice
http://www.wholefoodsmarket.co.....nbacon.jpg
OK. I refreshed the page. Kucinich is firmly outside my good graces once again.
Heard Nader threw his support behind Edwards. That’s a big endorsement IMO. Calls him a ‘Glimmer of Hope’.
Hi Jane!
Confession: this stuff makes my head hurt. It’s HEQQ, this place we Dems be in, with way-y-y too many viable candidates.
I look a-x the aisle and start giggling . . . Then I remember how stoopid chimpy looked, & I sober up considerably.
Be careful, Dems. Be careful what you say you wish for. Be very very careful.
Still & all, … I have hope again… *g*
Really? I’ll believe that when I see it happen.
This “we’ll take third place” spin from Hillary’s camp is absolutely ludicrous, but it indicates their internals and ground game show them it might happen. They’re pre-spinning a third-place finish!
Hillary will be crippled by a third-place finish, no matter the spin.
I don’t know anything first-hand, but others here have commented that Nader currently commands little if any electoral weight.
yea…im very surprised
and he knows how high the stakes are
FAILURE IS not an option
F…him
I hope with all my heart that the folks in Iowa choose a candidate that has no present and/or prior connections to Joe Lieberman.
Yep: trouble for Repugs in Iowa and perhaps the nation:
Link: http://www.desmoinesregister.c...../801030393
This is where politics trump principle. I am disappointed by both Kucinich and Richardson. Edwards is far closer to their stated views than either Obama or Hillary.
Okayy. Now that K’s back with Ob., & not trying to hurt E. by supporting him, my head doesn’t hurt any more. Things make sense again, sorta.
Thanks for edit & refresh,
and GOOD MORNING to ya Redd! ;->
Yeah, saying it is all part of the “plan” is not very persuasive, is it?
What might be helpful, is if Nader supported the Democratic nominee in the general election. If in the general, he encourages anti-Republican voters to take their marbles and go home, or vote for a forlorn hope, it will be the same old assistance to neocons, religeous fanatics, and robber barons.
very educational piece here, I didn’t realize there was so much gamesmanship going on
I have to disagree with the assessment that Hilary wants to throw support toward Edwards though, he is a real contender and if it looks like he can go the distance I think he takes out Hillary and Obama
Would Nader perhaps lure some cranky fellas outta the woodwork to take the trouble to vote, rather than sit on the side grousing? If they’d vote for Edwards, I’d not turn them away…
OT, but I’m trying to finish an e-mail and I have a question. Does the FISA legislation that they’re going to be considering this month have a provision for data retention in it? If it does, does anyone know how it compares to the data retention law that just went into effect in Germany? Re:
“Kucinich has thrown his second-round support behind Obama, and the rumor is Richardson will do the same. The Iowa Independent chalks it up to a desire to hurt Edwards’ chances with second round votes, damaging his campaign and potentially elevating Richardson into the #3 spot as the race moves forward.”
As an Iowa Caucus participant - this seems arrogant and grandiose. Like Richardson and Kucinich can dictate to their supporters who to support? I like Dodds take on this. He said who am I to tell Iowand who to support? I hope all of the non-viable Kucinich and Richardson Supporters backs their legitimate second choice candidate. T
Good morning, Adie! This is still making my head hurt!
Yeah, saying it is all part of the “plan” is not very persuasive, is it?
The idea that she would go to her dedicated supporters, and ask them to vote for somebody else on the second ballot? I’m not buying it either.
Im confused. I thought support was thrown only if one didnt get to 15%
okay now im totally confused…who is throwing their support where?
Yes, Kucinich was on my short list at one point. However, his suggestion of having Ron Paul as his running mate and his support for Obama changed my mind 180 degrees. No way I’d support him now.
What happens in Iowa will have a direct bearing on what takes place in the world soon.
I wouldn’t put too much stock into these rumors.
I have been to a good many of these affairs and most of the folks are pretty damn independent. Where some high paid out of state campaign strategist thinks they should go, if their candidate isn’t viable, doesn’t have much to do with anything. More important is what your buddy, your neighbor, your cousin and so on asks you to do.
Yeah, that’s right…
nader may not have any electoral weight, but he still have a lot of moral authority, no matter the undeserved blame he gets for running in ‘00. edwards is my candidate, so if nader did endorse him, even better. edwards is a good match for former nader supporters, such as myself.
ok must do lunch…keep the home fires burning yall
Edwards must be doing something right if they are so skeered they are already making contingency plans.
Some cut throat shit, ain’t it?
Hi Lea. Top o’ the morning to you and the family!
Yeah. The intrigue is always there, and often it stinks. I just hope everyone keeps cool heads. We’ve got a nation, a world, and the future of a bunch’a kids at stake.
Would that all those politicos who think they’re saving the world if they do unto their neighbor before the neighbor…. go sit in a corner and let their heads shrink back to normal size before proceeding.
There is some complicated math involved. There is rounding done and in certain precincts, For example HRC may have 8 or 9 supporters that can not be counted because it does not bring her to the next percentage level and would not gain an electoral vote. The precinct captain could then have those “extra” supporters head over to Edwards an boost him up a percentage point thus giving him an additional electoral vote.
Is there animosity between Kucinich and Edwards? Or do we just not understand Rep. Kucinich (thinking of his wife saying that he would not mind sharing a ticket with Ron Paul)? CAN he be understood?
I like Dodds take on this. He said who am I to tell Iowans who to support? I hope all of the non-viable Kucinich and Richardson Supporters backs their legitimate second choice candidate.
I think Dodd’s correct. Kucinich supporters would be, pretty much by definition, idealistic and ready to buck the system. Dennis the K is overrating his personal appeal - what sells Kucinich is his *positions*, not his personality, or cute wife.
Likewise Richardson voters. These candidates are wrong in thinking that their supporters love them personally - it’s an issues-based election. Those supporters are gonna go with the candidate whose position they most identify with - the “sheep factor” is, I think, not gonna play out.
The only sure thing we know is that the athletic supporters are being thrown in the laundry.
I hope you’re right on that one. I’ve been a Dodd supporter so far, but supported Edwards in 2004. If Dodd pulls out, I’m with Edwards in a heartbeat. My primary vote here in FL is not likely to mean much, but I will cast it for the best candidate running.
Just heard Vilsack on a radio interview. When asked why he’s supporting Clinton, the first thing he says is (paraphrase) “I was just talking to Lindsay Graham, and he talked about how nice it was working with Hillary on a bill they worked on together, so she can reach across the aisle….blah blah blah.”
This is his main reason for supporting Clinton? Because LindsayWhat? Graham says she’s A-OK?!?! This thing about Democrats trying to win the favor of death-loving and debt-loving Repubes is officially an sickness now.
BigMoney is trying so hard to supress us right now. We must rise up Netroots like never before! The battle is just beginning.
I think it’s more in the form of a recommendation. They know they can’t mandate how a person caucuses. Last time Edward and Kusinch reached an agreement that each would recommend it for each other in districts where their support didn’t reach 15 percent. One post yesterday indicated that Edwards’ campaign declined to do that this time, believing it would not work to their benefit (no link as I don’t remember where it was).
As far as principle versus pragmatics, I think they all rationalize with: “I believe it best if I win the nomination. This is the move required now for me to have the best chance to win the nomination.”
Jane, thanks so much for your terrific coverage.
I have been interested in that subject and have never seen it brought up in conjunction with the FISA discussions.
-um-, speaking as one who was present when Kucinich bankrupted Cleveland in a major whoopsie way back…. stay tuned and vigilent…. i think he’s changed considerably since then….. still….. *shudder*
kucinich is disappointing- i’ve always said that on the issues, he’s dead on, but he lacks that jenesaisquois quality of leadership that can vault him into contention, or even make a statement- maybe the sourness he always answers questions, or talking in campaign statements all the time. he has a right to ask his supporters to do whatever, but doubt that his followers will blindly do his bidding… i suspect his voters will look at the issues and go with edwards. richardson’s supporters seem a better fit for second tier obama or clinton supporters.
No, that isn’t right.
For example, if you need 25 for a delegate, and candidate X has 33 and candidate Y has 23, if the people with candidate X see they have no chance at getting to 50, it is possible that several from X would move to Y, making Y viable.
Keep in mind, Vilsack used to be the head of the DLC. That should tell you something. He also ran for president as a favor for HRC so she could skip Iowa. When he ditched his campaign, HRC paid off Vilsacks campaign debt. He is of the same mold as GOP-Lite HRC. Which is why I do not get why so many Democrats would support her.
Ann
Telecoms already keep your data for about that long, as evidenced by one of the manuals that was liberated last year some time–6 months.
As it is, the FISA leg still doesn’t have as much governing minimization as Whitehouse would like it to have–minimization would cover what they do with your data when they pick it up by accident. Right now, there is no oversight to make sure DOJ is doing what it says it’s doing wrt minimization.
Well, I know that the ability to work with mealymouthed, backstabbing Republicans like Huckleberry ranks high with Lieberman voters, all one of them.
Yikes this is rocket science!
How ’bout a combo of the 2? or Dodd ML in Senate? I agree with you: Edwards & Dodd are the class of the field, and the “worst” of the field ain’t half bad. (Gravel’s gone already, right? heh) ;->
Black beans and rice
Lookin fine to this gluten sensitive person.
That would, I think, fall under the minimization provisions of the FISA bill and as far as I know these are pretty vague, as in not used but probably not destroyed.
Had the same the other night….a favorite here
I find it interesting that there is very little mention of Dodd in the shuffling around. And he is the only one of the sitting congresspeople who has done anything real lately. Because he is a New Englander, does he rely more on the NH vote? It seems that with all this Iowa talk, NH is forgotten. IIRC, both taken together set the framework for the next round of state primaries, not just Iowa. But since Iowa is today, all eyes are there, eh?
oh yum! We had red beans & rice twice this week, & everyone was still reaching for seconds. but i digress…. *stomach growls*
Two Liebercrats in a pod.
Someone up top asked about the Mellencamp event for Edwards. Kristine from IA posted on the previous thread. Said it was rockin’ with a very good turnout.
Yeah, and my dad is a rocket scientist. So I usually assume I got some of his genes, but still . . .
Edwards and Dodd are fast becoming the two stand out Democratic candidates. They put their priniciples first. I hope they keep it up.
Bad news for Hil:
Thanks for the insight. As for why so many Dems support fake Dems…this is why I think the Media issues are the perhaps the most important we face right now. If there was an actual press pursuing truth as it’s main goal, our modern day Repubes and their supporters like Clinton would be laughed out of the room, since many of their stands make no sense whatsoever. The electorate would be voting in more and better Dems and Repubes.
Instead, we’ve had entire generations grow up with the carefully constructed frames the Dems are irresponsible children that tax and spend, while Repubes are the grown-ups that will take of everything. We know that in truth it is the exact opposite.
Getting people to change their opinions and actions is incredibly difficult, so this is going to take a while.
sadlyyes, here’s the link you asked for downstairs
http://www.johnedwards.com/myvote/
Well, it’s not brain surgery.
Even “rocket science” ain’t rocket science.
Dodd is THE grownup in a terrific field of good candidates. [ eat yer heart out, pugs!]
Dodd has the gravitas. He doesn’t seem to indulge in the sniveling little back-biting gamesmanship others sink to on occasion… nastiness that only reveals weakness, lack of confidence or a sense of real purpose. He gives every appearance of having the strength and ability to truly get. things. done.
The other candidates would do well to watch him and learn.
Plus, face it, he seems to be a truly decent hoomin bein’ complete with humility and a sense of humor.
Egad! A liberal intellectual you can share a beer with. HAH!
But, but, my sister is a doctor! (Not a brain surgeon, though. She wanted to serve the masses. She’s a commie)
Do they do exit polls with caucuses?
YESSSS!
If his candidacy doesn’t work out, I’d hate for Dodd to lose his seniority in the Senate. He would make a fantastic ML. As Hugh said, he and Edwards have focused on principles and that is what is so sorely lacking. Harry Reid wouldn’t know a principle if it smacked him on the forehead.
I think it is less to do with stopping Edwards and more to slow down Hill.
It keeps the race ‘interesting’ more people watch, more people learn, change happens faster..
Dennis Kucinich has been solid in his beliefs. His care for his fellow beings is genuine. His love for his country and its peoples (all people) is core. Dennis Kucinich is a seasoned ‘politican’ who came up from the street so he knows the REAL world. He stood against ‘The War’ from the beginning.
He stood against the ‘Patriot Act’ from the beginning. He brought to the floor IMPEACHMENT.
He has experience, he is smart, he is committed, he ‘knows’ the real world and he wants to change it for the better for everyone.
Also, his wife is an English-woman who has been to refugee camps, held hungry children, talked with mothers, daughters etc , so he is aware that a real world out ‘there’ too.
Oh, an irresponsible tax and spender no doubt. Why does has the baby Jesus? ;)
Dodd is definitely the class act of the bunch. He’d be my first choice, except for the fact that he opposes prosecuting the criminals inside the Bush administration. So far as I know, Edwards has not explicitly rejected the concept.
Yes. Yes. My ultimate choice is Edwards-Dodd ‘08 or Dodd-Edwards ‘08. Media be damned.
make that, “why does she hate the baby Jesus?”
yes, but you B.L.O.G.!
and i’ll wager you know how to chew a pretzel before swallowing it. ;->
It might be that Dodd would have more influence as a senator than as a (traditional) VP. (IMHO, it was a setback for the Dems when Humphrey became VP.)
Bad news for Hill
Can’t imagine working for Hillary while losing ground.
“Blue Room” takes on new meaning.
I think the idea that Hillary is, to a micron of a degree, willing to run third in Iowa to help Edwards and somehow, thereby, hurt Obama, is the purest nonsense.
If she comes in third place in Iowa, she and the beltway dems that we progressives have been fighting against for these past years will be shitting green nickels. That won’t be strategic; it’ll be panic-city.
:o)
I would LOVE to see her place third in Iowa. :o)
The coronation process will come to a screeching halt, and Pope Hillary the 1st will have to get out of the limo and trudge, and talk about her sucking up to the right.
If she doesn’t win in Iowa, it will make it that much more likely that the annointing or her as the nominee (which we’ve been seeing in the MSM, who would be nearly orgasmic at the chance to have all the “issues” rolled into one, and that one named Hillary Clinton, for them to help the GOP crawl into the lifeboat) will cease, and it will extend the primaries as real contests, and THAT she simply cannot afford. If she doesn’t have the nomination in hand after South Carolina, she will not win it.
Bubba, a few days ago, faced with the reality of her drop in the polls, tried to cover her ass, with his little speech about “We’re not planning on winning every primary; we just going to pick up delegates for the long haul” or somesuch bullshit. If it’s still the horserace going into the spring, her chances will be slim and none.
A third place Iowa finish for the candidate with one hand on Joe Lieberman’s ass, and the other one on Rupert Murdoch’s ass?
Bring it on.
As an Edwards supporter, that’s a “strategy” with all the political acumen of Hillary’s triangulating over to the darkside for the past five years.
We can deal with THAT. :o) :o) :o)
I hate pretzels! Always have. Both of my sisters ate them like potato chips growing up. I don’t like potato chips either. Is that why I blog?
Dodd has publicly stated that a 4th place finish is his ticket out of Iowa. If he does not get a 4th place, I think he will call it quits.
No — they do reporting of actual results. Caucuses are public events, with votes tabulated on the spot, and the results are announced in the room as each meeting concludes. No need for an exit poll, because the actual results are already in when folks head out the door. (These also get reported to a centralized location, to sort out the specific results as to exactly how many delegates have been won by each candidate.)
Thus, in place of exit polls trying to predict the final results, caucuses produce lots of post-caucus spin, trying to analyze what it means.
But if you’re an exit poll junky, you don’t have to wait long for NH.
Thanks, Marcy and thank you, too, Wigwam and Hugh. Finally finished my e-mail. Now I can go back to reading the comments.
it would be better if dodd stayed and led the senate as ML than campaign as VP, no matter how cool that ticket would be
so if Hil fades maybe the election cant be bought
There will be entrance polls in Iowa, however, which will give us a chance to compare the caucus results to a sample of people entering the caucuses. Not sure how valuable they’ll be, or whether they’ll be ready before the actual results.
Both give every appearance of being approachable, reasonable people who are constantly thinking and re-thinking issues, thinking OUTSIDE and BEYOND their own personal fortunes. I like the combo - whether with Dodd on the ticket or as Majority Leader - because I think they honestly, truly would work together.
Plus, ethics shows bright, fresh, clear as a bell, in pretty much everything they do, and HOW they do it. As does courage and compassion.
besides, [Fauxneeeews must hate this above all], they both have good hair, heh.
nah. but it might help explain why yer keyboard doesn’t short-out as often as theirs. ;->
We like Edwards and Dodd. Hopfully, like Rudy, we will have a couple of Democrats heading for the Florida beaches soon.
Lahoma and I will just be glad when this thing is over. And we can happily say NH, here we come.