We'll be hearing from the candidates' spinners -- and their media enablers -- all day on Iowa Caucus Day, and they'll be setting us up for defeat, victory, and unexpected expectations. Here are some blatant spins to look out for; please share any others you've heard in the comments.
1. "We're happy to have placed third, it is a tremendous victory!" is complete and utter bullshit, whether from the Obama, Edwards, or Clinton camps. All three of these campaigns came to win. Saying that their plan was to come in third, and that they have a ticket to New Hampshire based on a third-place finish, is untrue. The candidate among the Big Three who finishes third may very well be out of the running entirely. (Except my candidate, of course! *g*)
2. "We're happy to have placed third, it is a tremendous victory!" is the absolute truth from any campaign other than Edwards, Clinton or Obama. If any candidate other than the Big Three finishes in the top three, he's got a ticket to New Hampshire. And the Big Three candidate who lost to him is definitely out of the running for the nomination.
3. "The caucuses don't really matter -- Iowa is unrepresentative, cold, undemocratic, and complicated" is what campaigns will say about this process they've invested millions of dollars in -- if they do poorly. If Iowa is so unrepresentative, why did you spend three months here the past year? See if the media enablers ask these sore losers this question!
4. "Nothing was decided here tonight" is the message Traditional Media will send if their anointed ones lose. You will hear much discussion about how the precinct meetings simply elected delegates to county conventions, which then choose delegates to the state convention, which finally choose delegates to the national convention in Denver. You will hear that none of these delegates, at any level, are bound by tonight's results. You are, however, unlikely to hear from TradMed how much they've invested in covering this process that decided nothing tonight.
5. It'll be great to see how soon TradMed starts spinning the "Iowa matters little if at all" meme. There's been a hint of it already in the "What if Iowa decides nothing?" article from AdNag, among others. The more the Iowa results defy the media narrative, the less important Iowa becomes to TradMed. If the narrative doesn't fit, you must acquit -- or something.
6. "We were outspent and outstaffed" cry from losers will likely go unchallenged by the Villagers, so you'll want to have Jerome Armstrong's valuable discussion of the Big Three's Iowa investments close at hand. We know TradMed won't.
7. "Candidate X doesn't have the winning margin and the money to continue" will be particularly prevalent should non-Village-approved candidates (Edwards, Huck) win tonight. In addition to minimizing the importance of Iowa in this circumstance, it'll be critical to downplay the margin of victory and the all-important cash-on-hand. There may even be a plaintive call from Mrs Greenspan for the winners to gracefully withdraw if they are unacceptable to her, for these reasons.
8. "A tie is as good as a [loss/win]," depending upon the point being made. Well, no one really wants to tie, do they? So ask yourself, how can a tie be as good as a win, or as good as a loss? Isn't a tie a tie?
9. Finally, be on the lookout for the 2004 Rape Gurney Joe Lieberman spin: "We're in a three-way tie for third place!" This is especially discomfiting from fiscal conservatives, from whom voters might have reason to expect some greater math facility.
What spin have you heard spun on the cable gabfests today?
Is there a campaign consultant who's been particularly egregious within your earshot?
Please share the spin in the comments -- we can sort out together what the spin might mean for the candidates, or for the prevailing media narrative about Iowa.
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Here’s a site that posts the results as they come in. Updated every 30 seconds.
http://www.iowacaucusresults.com/
First results - official:
Edwards : 48.98%
Obama : 29.20%
Clinton : 17.01%
Richardson : 4.81%
Precincts Reporting: 3/1781
Teddy!
Teddy!!
We’ll be pasting in the media feed of live official results as they are available …
Teddy! hi ya!
Mahalo, Siun and Jane and Teddy and… *g*
Results:
Edwards : 39.24%
Clinton : 32.43%
Obama : 26.14%
Richardson : 2.19%
Precincts Reporting: 13/178
THANKS!!!
Thanks!
here’s the spin I’ll be saying if obama wins;
“no he didn’t”
that’s my spin
Thank you solai!!
Hi Teddy. Pretty much stayed away from spin today. Here for my updates.
Numbers sure are fluctuating all over the place!
hey everyone!
I just heard puzzled Punkinhead, baffled by the 3x turnout in West Des Moines over 2004, say “Well, Keith, a win is a win is a win.” Let’s hold him to that, shall we?
Results:
Edwards : 38.14%
Clinton : 37.29%
Obama : 23.31%
Richardson : 1.25%
Precincts Reporting: 21/1781
Cool CT!
It is gonna be a long night…
WooHoo
WHAT!!!!!!
SNOOOOOPYYYYY DANCEEEEEE!!!!
So I may get to wake in the morning to the news that it’s Obama or Clinton. Oh gawd.
Senator John Edwards : 37.87%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 34.61%
Senator Barack Obama : 25.37%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.08%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.08%
Precincts Reporting: 24 of 1781
Howdy, Ma’am! Ya arrived just in time…
In addition to spin-casting, we need to be mindful of raw numbers and their import as well.
Yes. And suggest he get a new hairdresser!
I like your results best. ;0)
Senator John Edwards : 39.22%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 33.71%
Senator Barack Obama : 25.05%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.01%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.01%
Precincts Reporting: 26 of 1781
Senator John Edwards : 38.03%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.93%
Senator Barack Obama : 26.54%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.45%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.04%
Precincts Reporting: 33 of 1781
*sigh* The numbers keep sliding for Edwards…
snoopy dancing I am
Solai, do you know where the repug results are posted?
I have a problem with your argument, TeddySanFran. In essence you are saying that the 15% (at most) of Iowa voters who show up should just choose the nominees for us, that Iowa is overwhelmingly important, that no one else has a say.
Sure, the spinners for candidates who don’t win will dismiss the significance of the results. But maybe the rest of us should also. Clinton and Obama will still have enormous piles of cash and national organizations, even if either one comes in third. Edwards not so much, so he really needs a win, but even with him, I think that he’s not going to run out of gas with only five days until New Hampshire.
It’s over for a candidate only when that candidate has no realistic shot at winning a majority of the delegates. That time will come soon enough, almost certainly by mid-February. But not yet.
oops, slowing the dancing down a bit
Senator John Edwards : 37.88%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.81%
Senator Barack Obama : 26.31%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.15%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.85%
Precincts Reporting: 38 of 1781
Results:
Edwards : 37.88%
Clinton : 32.81%
Obama : 26.31%
Richardson : 2.15%
Biden : 0.85%
Precincts Reporting: 38/1781
This is very interesting and I’m not sure what I expected!
Except that I thought a while back that Obama had truly stepped in it, and the poll results seem to bear that out…
I did not expect Edwards and Clinton to be so close. Veeeeeeeeery interesting!
I wonder how the results are going to change. Edwards spent a lot of time in the rural area’s campaigning so I’m betting those are areas with smaller amounts of people therefore they are reporting first. If Clinton and Obama have more going for them in the larger areas then the numbers may shift more towards those two as the night goes on. What do you all think?
Chuck Todd talking now about Terry McAulliffe’s reminder to the national media that it “took Bill Clinton five primaries before he ever won.” And that “this is just one night.”
I was in the pool. :)
Results:
Edwards : 37.74%
Clinton : 30.71%
Obama : 27.30%
Richardson : 2.77%
Dodd : 0.80%
Biden : 0.68%
Precincts Reporting: 45/1781
I’m rooting for Edwards, but we should get too excited by the early returns, as they aren’t likely to be representative of the state as a whole (though it’s nice to see him in the lead anyway).
No, sorry.
Senator John Edwards : 37.74%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.71%
Senator Barack Obama : 27.30%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.77%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.80%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.68%
Precincts Reporting: 45 of 1781
fyi - I’m grabbing from the Iowa Dem media feed …
if anyone wants numbers from specific precincts, etc
let me know
there was a pool?
I didn’t get a box
Dood. That’s exactly what happens. I’ve screamed about it, I’ve registered my displeasure with it, and gone on about it ad nauseum, but the final fact is this: Because I am not a resident of Iowa, I am disenfranchised from deciding on my party’s nomination.
I don’t think TSF is *endorsing* that. Just commenting within a political reality.
One that I’d love to change sometime. GRRRR…
Are we seeing small precinct-reporting here? Remember even if a Des Moines precinct caucus draws landslide #s for someone, it still is one precinct…need strength across the state, not just big city or college town precincts.
Results:
Edwards : 37.04%
Clinton : 31.44%
Obama : 28.12%
Richardson : 2.21%
Dodd : 0.64%
Biden : 0.55%
Precincts Reporting: 53/1781
If the trends hold once ten percent or so of the results are in I will start with the snoopy dance. Meanwhile I am polishing my dancing shoes.
*fingers in ears snoopy dancing*
Senator John Edwards : 37.04%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.44%
Senator Barack Obama : 28.12%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.21%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.64%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.55%
Precincts Reporting: 53 of 1781
Oh, and are people really going to post the numbers here as a comment every minute or two? I hope not. I suggest waiting for 10% of results in (178 precincts reporting), then 20%, etc. so we don’t crap up the site with useless data.
I’m certainly heartened by the fact Edwards has not lost the lead so far…
Teddy:
You forget Tweety and a lot of the TradMed already fluffing Saint McCain. He’ll be the bigger winner tonight no matter what. Hell, The Big Punkinhead already has him lined up for Sunday so I heard.
One thing that makes me cheerful about Edwards’ showing so far, and this would be true whether or not I supported him, is how well he’s doing despite the fact that he’s massively outspent by the other candidates.
Any take on where these #s are coming from, Siun?
Good Point!
MSNBC reporting early support for HRC and Obama!!! Liars!!
Siun is the Press Secretary for FireDogLake and she’s allowed to “crap up the site” with whatever useless data she wants, btw.
Results:
Edwards : 36.37%
Clinton : 31.56%
Obama : 28.02%
Richardson : 1.97%
Biden : 1.09%
Dodd : 0.57%
Uncommitted : 0.42%
Precincts Reporting: 64/1781
I can’t find anything like this either. Dems are certainly ahead of the repugs techie-wise!
Dammit, that just proves it. Someone stake the undead McCain already to keep him from rising again and again.
(Note to mods: this is of course metaphorical. Pbbt.)
I think we should call him Vampyre McCain…
Watching the returns with bated breath… hoping for my man to pull this one out!
Watching trends emerge takes more frequency than that, Joe. I vote for total sunshine wherever possible *g*
Lahoma and I aren’t going to do much differently than we usually do tonight. We will go upstairs and watch a bit of news. Then we will put on a movie. And then we will go to sleep.
Edwards on top!
Hillary and bill look awful! So tired
http://www.iowacaucusresults.com/
Results:
Edwards : 37.40%
Clinton : 30.30%
Obama : 28.13%
Biden : 1.96%
Richardson : 1.47%
Dodd : 0.42%
Uncommitted : 0.32%
Precincts Reporting: 81/1781
only 1700 more precincts to go!
These early returns are likely to be from small rural precincts, where Edwards was expected to be strong. I don’t know that, I’m just guessing. It certainly looks like Polk High School, where David Gregory reports 3x turnout in West Des Moines, is nowhere near concluding their business tonight.
if I had to guess, I’d say small rural… if Obama pulls ahead, it’ll be later, as the city caucuses are larger and slower to count.
Senator John Edwards : 37.40%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.30%
Senator Barack Obama : 28.13%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.96%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.47%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.42%
Uncommitted : 0.32%
Precincts Reporting: 81 of 1781
Someone around here keeps spinning the meme that It’s all good for Republicans. *g*
Depends on what precinct they’re in, doncha know…
Do we have any idea when the final results will be in?
Siun has a press credential and is tapping into the official results, as they’re made available.
Yeah, why does Keith go to every break with a comment about Clinton and Obama doing better than “the other candidates”?
Anybody have some numbers of the Repugs…?
Siun! I thought you were a mediographar!
Results:
Edwards : 37.40%
Clinton : 31.11%
Obama : 27.10%
Biden : 1.93%
Richardson : 1.91%
Dodd : 0.32%
Uncommitted : 0.24%
Precincts Reporting: 103/1781
You can look at all the counties on the site
I see Jane on cspan!!!
but of course she is allowed to muck up the site with the stats from the caucus results in Iowa.
Disappointing that Richardson and Biden are ahead of Dodd…
12/100ths of the population will decide tonight’s results according to KO.
Looks like almost everyone has written off all but the top three candidates. I’m a bit surprised by that.
Results:
Edwards : 36.15%
Clinton : 31.60%
Obama : 28.40%
Richardson : 1.72%
Biden : 1.66%
Dodd : 0.27%
Uncommitted : 0.20%
Precincts Reporting: 118/1781
Jane’s sitting on a table by a door blogging!! I’m pretty sure!!! Waving!!
The 8 second delay?
I think KO’s numbers about Clinton and Obama come from the “entrance polls” although I don’t know how many they conducted and where.
We are liking it. ;0)
Here: Caucus Results. Updated every 30 seconds.
Just got a glimse of Jane on C-Span.
Nice slam at Lou Dobbs, Keith! Yeah!
it’s getting closer top three all in the 30% a
Only 4 out of 183 Des Moines caucuses reporting so far so the big towns are just coming in.
Edwards : 34.57%
Clinton : 31.65%
Obama : 30.36%
Richardson : 1.65%
Biden : 1.39%
Dodd : 0.22%
Uncommitted : 0.16%
Precincts Reporting: 143/1781
KOs numbers were entrace polls
Too bad Dodd isn’t doing better, but we do need him in the Senate.
Teddy San Fran do you think the servers will hold up with all this traffic?
and Marion…
Should’ve been clearer with my question–not the reporting source of the #s [I’ve already tabbed that], but the origin location source…small towns? A particular part of state? Iowegians lurking here–how does your state usually report its voting tallies? [acknowledging that caucuses are not the same as election night results, of course!]
What is she wearing LS - have Cspan on too but haven’t glimpsed her yet.
Reslts:
Edwards : 33.71%
Clinton : 32.25%
Obama : 30.53%
Richardson : 1.93%
Biden : 1.25%
Dodd : 0.18%
Uncommitted : 0.14%
Precincts Reporting: 160/1781
Sometimes it’s nice to be public school teachers. We don’t have to go to work tomorrow.
Now KO has the right stuff.
very scattered results - I can see the precinct map and it’s very scattered … assume small precincts since those are easiest to count fast and the larger get more tricky with viabilty and trades
Where are these results coming from?
I agree Dodd should be made leader in the Senate! Get Reid out of that position.
Okay. My guess is small towns/precincts would be coming in first, just as in general elections, with the bigger cities later.
Rudy with 2%! Freddie ahead of Mccain & Ron Paul. Huck on top. Then Mittens.
Results:
Edwards : 33.38%
Clinton : 32.40%
Obama : 30.76%
Richardson : 2.03%
Biden : 1.16%
Dodd : 0.15%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Precincts Reporting: 191/1781
Where is the Rethug results?
Nothing from Ames, IA yet.
Is there a “live” Republican results site, do you know?
No counties are even close to complete btw
I recognized her with the blond hair and the headband, she was walking in a doorway, and then it seemed she sat on the edge of a table next to the doorway with a silver (I think) laptop…. Haven’t seen her in a few minutes..
Senator John Edwards : 34.24%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.12%
Senator Barack Obama : 30.28%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.02%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.11%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.14%
Uncommitted : 0.10%
Precincts Reporting: 205 of 1781
Now, she’s there now!!!