Yesterday’s election update post missed a crucial point. Man, I wish I’d read Bonnie Erbe earlier, because this is so true:
As David Redlawsk, political science professor at the University of Iowa and director of the Hawkeye Poll, said on public radio last night, caucusgoers as a whole tend to be older, whiter, more male, and more Republican than the nation and even than Iowa itself. A mere 6 to 7 percent of Iowans tend to participate in the caucuses, because the process takes much longer and is much more public compared with the brevity and privacy of entering an enclosed polling station and pushing some buttons….
With 22 states holding primaries on February 5 (including delegate-rich New York, California, and Illinois), the presidential nominees won’t be decided until at least that date. Florida’s primary this year was moved up to January 29, but Ohio and Texas primary voters don’t go to the polls until early March. And with polls zigzagging the way they have been these past few weeks, it could easily be March before the nominations are wrapped up.
Iowa is a great test of organizational mettle — which makes those reports on the Edwards campaign having done so much local work all the more intriguing — and it is a fantastic gauge of commitment, ability to withstand a brutal schedule and not have a meltdown, and strength of message with a tough audience.
But there are so many more primaries on this year’s front-loaded schedule that its influence is somewhat diluted by the month-long deluge of voting that follows.
Are the candidates concentrating on Iowa to the detriment of the front-loaded schedule? As Millineryman was saying the other day, New Jersey hasn’t exactly been a hotbed of primary activity (well, southern NJ anyway, apparently the northern part gets fundraising dinners). So, how about it readers in early primary states — and by early I mean not at the back end like we are here in WV — what are you seeing in your neck of the woods? Any candidates? Stump speeches? Surrogates fanning out to speak to local groups? Requests from campaigns for your help? Anything at all? Do tell…
Related posts:
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- Rob H. Stands in Line for Hilda Sarkisyan
- Kendrick Meek: No Line in the Sand on Public Option, But Prohibiting Abortion Funding? Sure!
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Zed!
zed 2
Hugh, ET, and Bob in Hawaii. To the Scroll!
I got a robo-call from Dr. Howard Dean today, reminding me of our Alaska Democratic Caucus on Feb. 5. I’m still undecided between Dodd and Edwards.
I’m incredibly stupid…I didn’t realize that the “Reverend Huckabee” was from Liberty University….I’m scared, really scared. This is the big push for the RNC Bushies. You think W stuck all those Bushies in the DOJ, etc.,…if Huckabee makes it, and I believe he can…we are finished.
uncomfortable confession:
I had to look up Indiana’s presidential primary date. It is May 6, 2008.
Nothing like being in the thick of things, huh?
Hugh, ET, and Bob in Hawaii. To the Scroll!
sounds safer than “To the barricades!”
If Hugh shows up, egregious and some media people are looking for him…
I noticed yesterday that Andrew Horn had announced his candidacy against Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. Via No Quarter:
Christy,
I’m gonna go out on a limb here (and you heard it from me first *g*), but I’m contemplating the possibility that no candidate will get sufficient votes for the nomination during the primaries, and that the summer conventions will be hot!
Repugs – 75% possibility.
Democrats – 50+% possibility.
I’ll even go further out on the limb and suggest that the Repugs convention too will end without an endorsed candidate.
Howdya like those apples?
ET, have you been downstairs to “The List of Bush of Scandals” (LHP post, what can I say, her typing sometimes gets ahead of her, hence the two ofs) post yet?
i think he’s gotten the msg.s
O/T, but definitely BREAKING!:
judge kennedy’s clerk has just
cleared — for security — the
filings for tomorrow’s torture
tape destruction hearing. . .
very few redactions in the
first set — and i have the full-
text up! click this to see ‘em.
i’ll be posting the exhibits to
the pleadings, later this evening,
but this is going to be very explosive,
tomorrow. take a look at the assertion
that more tapes likely exist, even now,
at gitmo! yeowza!
we now return you to dick-lawyers’ jammin’. . .
p e a c e
Based on what I am hearing and reading, I am starting to become very concerned about the prospect of an Obama nomination.
[that last sentece should read:
we return you to your thread!
going too fast. . .]
What does the Huckster have to do with Liberty Univ??
Actually, I was pleasantly surprised to find out that our primary isn’t after the conventions.
Tweety just showed some tape of a speech Huckabee gave at Liberty lat month. IIRC Huck’s undergrad work was at Ouachita Baptist College but on that I might be mistaken.
Huckabee has but one degree: a BA from Ouachita Baptist University. He also spent a year working on a masters at Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary, but dropped out. Wiki here.
When folks put Huckabee and “Liberty University” together, they’re either mistaken or trying to say he’s theologically akin to Jerry Falwell.
Just to be clear.
ET — Have you seen much campaign anything up your way? I saw that Gravel was doing quite a bit there (not a surprise) but what about the other candidates?
Wow, Hawai’i has joined the front-loading bandwagon, Feb. 26th, typically it was mid-June…
Not a lot going on here in OR, but like jayt’s Indiana, we are way late in the primary game. Lots of Ron Paul love though based on signs, stickers and even a rally last week.
There has been a fair amount of activity in the Dem Senate primary as Merkley and Novick battle to see who can possibly oust Gordon Smith. Smith’s comments regarding Lott’s comments regarding Strom Thurmond’s racist ways made a bit of news yesterday.
Giuliani campaigned in KC yesterday, then traveled across the state to St. Louis doing more along the way.
The only particular news coverage of it, though, was when he was hospitalized overnight in St. Louis. He had some fundraisers, so likely made some good contacts among his supporters.
As for any great largescale campaign events to capture the enthusiasm of the masses for a President Giuliani . . . crickets.
I hate the fact that my primary vote is never courted nor counted in any meaningful way. Why should a few select states get all of the power?
Trying to catch the big wave, no doubt.
redd,
I think the last time a serious contender for either party’s nomination showed up here was in, uh, uh….
Alaska is expensive to do, and takes one out of circulation for at least a half day on either end of the trip. There was talk the other day of a possibility of a GOP candidate or two making it up here, but I think Ron Paul and Huckabee have the place sewn up. Rudy’s spent the most money up here on the GOP side, Hillary on the other, but the Unions – IBEW, specifically – are giving Obama trainings at IBEW HQ.
Hugh showed up and was much surprised and gratified. OK, no more of that talking about myself in the third person. It was actually Chris Matthews (I think he secretly likes Edwards) that had someone on a while ago who talked about the strength of Edwards’ organizing efforts in Iowa. But even on Matthews’ show it is mostly Obama and Hillary or Hillary and Obama. I often wonder how well Edwards would be doing if the MSM covered him even half as much as Hilbama.
Speaking from the hinterlands of Illinois, the silence has been deafening. You get a few Obama stories generated from Chicagoland and that’s about it.
ET — I figured it would be surrogate activity for the most part. I just hadn’t heard about much of it. The IBEW info is interesting — thanks much!
Holy Momma! Wow!
Hangin’ Ten! Toes on the Nose… ;-)
friday nite data dump on thursday!
Yes, that is fascinating. It surprises me.
An early Xmas gift…! Yee-Haw, KO’s back…! 8-)
Hillary Clinton keeps asking me for lots of money to meet her at posh fundraisers, but real public appearances here in California – by anybody – are quite rare.
I expect lots of slick ads and annoying calls come mid-January.
Snoopy dance for KO and Redd’s belated return! *g*
Yeah, and as you can see, the IBEW chief is pissed at me for letting the word out. Somebody told me Vince is fitting me for some concrete sneakers…
Geez, these guys are so incompetent they can’t even do a half way decent job of destroying the evidence. Of course, the Padilla tape of his last interrogation on March 2, 2004 was an indication that even before the torture tapes controversy erupted that taping had gone on after the CIA asserted it had ended in 2003.
I got a really slick and well done brochure from Hillary last week. Very professional. Great pictures. It’s the only mailer I have from any candidate. Here in Cal I’m sure there will be a few more.
If Markos hadn’t already… *g*
Nothing happening in NYC of mid-Hudson. I no longer have land lines, so I don’t get robo calls. But no ads on TV.
Massachusetts is now part of the big February 5 primary (we just changed the statute [or something] to be part of it) but I’ve seen no candidates or yard signs here in WMass. I suspect that’s because we get a lot of the overflow from NH & probably most candidates figure much of New England gets covered by the heavy campaigning in NH. I know I’ve seen more McCain & Romney ads than I ever wanted to. And speaking of Romney – we just got rid of him & now he’s absolutely everywhere & we’re sure seeing a lot more of him than when he supposedly ran this state.
Huckabee at Liberty U.
——————————————————————————–
Posted: December 1, 2007
1:00 a.m. Eastern
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a rising voice in the Republican presidential race, addressed a Liberty University convocation service on Wednesday, detailing his pursuit of his relationship with God throughout his career in politics and as a pastor.
Mr. Huckabee became the third presidential candidate to address a Liberty audience in recent months. Earlier, U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., spoke at Liberty’s May graduation, and Alan Keyes, a former assistant secretary of state, spoke at convocation in September.
I have not endorsed a presidential candidate, but it was certainly encouraging to hear a Christian brother, a man unwavering in his faith, talking about his quest for the highest office in the land.
Yeah, not a single ad on TV or radio.
Twain — CA? Prepare for the deluge. *g*
And I should have added: I do have a land telephone line, and haven’t received a single political call.
Hi Christy,
This is a good question. I am in Central California and we are one of the February 5th Super Tuesday primary states (at least I think so, as I have heard just about nothing so far . . .)
My area’s television market is Sacramento (very big market) and I have seen not one campaign ad. Not. One.
And really, what’s up with Iowa? I grew up in Iowa. My father was a local caucus person (for the Repubs) and there was very little national play back in the day . . . . Now it seems, well, excessive.
Not much happening here in AZ that I can see. The state Dem Party sent out an electronic mailer asking political preferences… Mostly as a fundraising thing. But, it did have a box to check, “may we forward this information to your candidate of choice?” I ticked yes, but so far that campaign has yet to contact me.
Heh, the only Political Advertisements I’ve seen was either on the news channels or the web… I’ve only received bulk mailings for local offices…
And I’ll add to my list of no contacts from candidates that we’ve had no phone calls, robo or otherwise, & no mailings (other than requests for money).
Nada here in Michigan. Only Hillary, Dodd, Kucinich and Gravel will be on our ballot and we’re being punished for moving our primary date up to January 15. This stupid plan by the powers that be has backfired big-time and we’ve lost candidates and no one is campaigning here. As of now, the DNC will not be seating our delegates anyway, so who knows if it will even matter. A lot of us are hoping that “Uncommitted” will pull out a big victory over Hillary.
Ah, thanks for that, Raven. I heard LS’s comment in my head as tied to the whole “does he or does he not have a theology degree?” stuff that’s been flying around.
Got a link for more?
OT..I thought this had been killed…
link
Just when I have finally gotten rid of all the Christmas catalogues. Ca is early so it won’t be long now until it starts pouring in.
What I know about Nevada. Maybe other can add further to this.
I’ve received calls from Obamas team. These are personal calls and it gives me a chance to chat with them. Haven’t heard from Hillary. There are mailings but I haven’t received personal calls from her campaign workers.
Hillary is in the lead. She is double digits ahead of Obama.
In Nevada the parties are putting their energy into organizational efforts. It takes Nevadans a while to get involved in an election race, not just this one, just in general.
Nevadans show up for candidate debates. They want to hear it directly from the candidate.
Clinton has a large lead. Obama runs a far second. Edwards even further behind Obama. That is surprising since he spent a lot of time in Nevada for the 2004 election as VP to Kerry.
I recently received another request for more volunteers from the Democratic Party. I know of volunteers working very hard and determined to get more people involved. Most of the work is done by a handful of dedicated volunteers.
I expect things to start to heat up after the holidays. Ask this questions again in January.
Why do they like Hillary? She seems more grounded to the populace. I think she also appeals to the Republicans who crossed-over.
I might add that I throw out unopened any snail mail of a political nature.
Huckabee was born in Hope, Arkansas, to Mae Elder and Dorsey W. Huckabee. His father worked as a fireman and mechanic and his mother worked as a clerk in a gas company.[4] He has one sister who is a middle school teacher.[5] Huckabee’s first job, at 14, was working at a radio station where he would read the news and weather.[6] He was elected Governor of Arkansas Boys State in 1972 and is a Hugh O’Brian Youth Leadership Alumnus. He was president of Hope High School in 1973.[7] He married his wife Janet McCain on May 25, 1974.[5] He graduated magna cum laude from Ouachita Baptist University, completing his bachelors degree in Religion in 2½ years before attending Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary in Fort Worth, Texas where he dropped out after one year.[8][9] [10] He has two honorary doctoral degrees: a Doctor of Humane Letters, received from John Brown University in 1991, and a Doctor of Laws from Ouachita Baptist University in 1992.[11] [12]
I can’t get the link tool to function
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Huckabee
The “non-existent” Theology degree that qualifies him to be President? Through-out his whole political career, the Huckster has had a major problem telling the truth.
Programs at the DHS keep getting tripped up because everyone there forgets to the mandated legal screening and impact studies. So when Chertoff insists that something is so, I always remind myself that he is the most incompetent man in Washington, and that is saying something.
After 30 years as a Politics instructor, I find all the attention on Iowa excessive and would favor regional primaries to better reflect the voting demographics.
It is ridiculous that I can influence a national election by taking 7 of my extended family to a caucus, make ourselves “Viable” and reflect the national will. We are educated, but we are predominantly homogeneous.
The party system was never a part of the Constitution. It needs reform badly.
OMG, Nolo, what a good job! They’re readable and everything! Christy ought to be very interested in these! Especially once you’ve updated with exhibits!
OT
Update on Larry Flynt investigations
My nominee: Orin Hatch. I heard it from a gay friend many years ago. There’s also a second R senator in the works, but his boyfriends are agonizing over whether to give him up.
http://rawstory.com/news/2007/….._1220.html
Hatch is a twink whether he is gay or not.
maybe Ted Stevens - 2nd picture down….
Very funny.
I missed it. Do you have a link or anything to steer me to?
Hatch would be a bigger hypocritical scoop than Wide Stance… ;-)
OT..Hope this is true….
HuffPo
Read the stuff abut the trickster in that article!
Here’s a snippet…
http://thinkprogress.org/2007/…../#comments
More tapes himmm fire in the office building… cheny’s office, ya say… Oh yea no more tapes… got that!!
Richard Cody the leader of the New Jersey state Senate had a conference call for Edwards this week.
.
He lost by one vote, cast by Ben Nighthorse before he abandoned the Dem party…
The more I look at it, it has to be Edwards, I respect Dodd. But I don’t think he could win the election.
Yeah, though it’s cheap stuff. I really don’t care about the substance of any of this, just exposing the hypocrisy of the living, especially the pols who run for office on holier-than-thou.
We’re part of Super Tuesday. I watch very little network TV, so I’m spared most of the commercials The MittBot 2.0 has been in town (very recently), and so has Rudy. If a Democratic candidate has been here I missed it entirely. Thus far I’ve only seen commercials for the MittBot on their side, but I guess more will come. I also can’t recall seeing a commercial for any Democrat as yet. But as I said I watch very little network TV. Now, if they were clamoring to advertise on the Food Channel, or House and Garden, or SciFi maybe I’d catch them…
Hawai’i has its caucus February 19. There hasn’t been a word about it in the papers.
There’s discussion about changing the primaries from open to closed, which I don’t like at all. It would mean that only registered Dems could vote in the Democratic primary, and our local party is very poor at registering people, so it would be like Iowa — a very few voters would choose for everyone else.
CTut got you started. There’s plenty more at blueoregon.com
The other possibility is trying to get the process changed to open primaries. Here we don’t have to declare a party affiliation, and can vote in either primary. Not both, of course. It’s interesting to follow the results, to see which party most people think needs primary attention!
OT..I thought this had been killed…
Chertoff insists the scheme to turn spy satellites — that were originally designed for foreign surveillance — on Americans is legal, although a House committee that would approve the program has not been updated on the program for three months.
Steve this is just nuts. Why??? With what budget? I saw that article earlier today and it really pisses me off. Not only have we been paying to have our mail, email, and phones intruded upon, but now satellites? This is so far beyond 1984 that I cannot believe it. Pots and pans???
I live in the middle between San Francisco and San Jose. I don’t see any of them they just scew up traffic when they are in the area
Hell, you can go on Google and find maps of your street showing your house and your car parked in the driveway. And that’s just what they’re letting us see. Don’t pick your nose in public, you’re being watched.
Wiki says Hawaii’s Prez primary is; “February 26, 2008 Hawaii primary 13 4 3 20 9 29″
I throw out political mail too. (Well, I recycle it as I’m sure you do.) I’m really angry that the money I have donated to Blue America-small donations-has come back X5 in mailers. It’s 2007, and I don’t need dead wood to contribute. I contribute online to people I trust to watch the environment,
dear santa,
all i want for xmas is permanent rotating primaries.
sincerely,
a lifelong california voter who’s never had a say in determining the democractic nominee and probably won’t again this year even though our primary has been moved up ’cause i’ve moved and re-registered twice and i’m still not showing up on the voter rolls.
How did we get into this situation that Iowa virtually gets to pick the nominees and the next president? They have a population of less than 3 million and it’s almost 95% white – and someone said today that only about 7% of the people participate in the caucus. This is truly nuts.
Yep.
A few electrons instead of a few trees… 8-(
And they’ve all got bits of corn stuck in their teeth.
ho ho ho
me too, my presidential primary vote has never ever matered.
that would be mattered
preview is my friend
I’ve noticed that I’m getting less political junk mail. Which is a good thing, and saves the trees. My e-mail box, however, is INUNDATED daily. How do we recycle useless pixels?
Turn them into heat-barrier sleeves for virtual cups of coffee?
Wow! Great idea! Some of us serve up coffee in the morning, and this would be helpful. Thanks!
That’s why they pay me the big money.
Marion, you serve more than coffee!!
I will be going to the MN caucus on Feb 5th. Will be voting for Edwards. I was at a luncheon of several women ( high school classmates) who all said they are voting for Edwards. I was surprised – so many are politically active.
Go Minnesotans!
I think not. I think they’re concentrating on Iowa because they know that the schedule is so front-loaded that if you don’t get a victory early, you will be crushed by all the momentum of the winner. There’s not enough time to recover. So I actually think the early primary schedule has empowered Iowa and New Hampshire even MORE. That’s borne out by the fact that there hasn’t been one ad in California yet, almost no mailers, and very few campaign offices (Obama just put the first one in Sacramento today), etc. The Edwards campaign is asking Southern California supporters to go to Nevada to help out. I think the campaigns are playing it the only way it can be played.
Which is why we need a radical reform of the primary system, because 100,000 people in Iowa (no slam on them, but that’s .0003 of the population) will be essentially determining the Democratic nominee for leader of the free world.
Trying to catch the big wave, no doubt.
Yep.
WE are in Missouri and always spend the winter in Texas. This year I made my husband arrange for absentee ballots, so that we can vote in Bit Tuesday. I still don’t know who I am going to vote for. My hubby will probably vote for Obama. He believes that Hillary would make the best president of the bunch (including the Republicans), but thinks she can’t get elected. I love Edwards but think he can’t get the nomination. So we will both wait until the last minute to decide.
Haven’t really seen any big campaigning in Missouri. Some Republicans have been here.