It looks like the Sunni insurgents in Iraq, far from being cowed by the mighty prowess of Bush’s troop escalation surge, are simply biding their time until the escalation, which cannot be sustained as our armed forces are falling apart from overuse, comes to its eventual end:
Iraq’s main Sunni-led resistance groups have scaled back their attacks on US forces in Baghdad and parts of Anbar province in a deliberate strategy aimed at regrouping, retraining, and waiting out George Bush’s "surge", a key insurgent leader has told the Guardian.
US officials recently reported a 55% drop in attacks across Iraq. One explanation they give is the presence of 30,000 extra US troops deployed this summer. The other is the decision by dozens of Sunni tribal leaders to accept money and weapons from the Americans in return for confronting al-Qaida militants who attack civilians. They call their movement al-Sahwa (the Awakening).
[...]
Besides Ramadi, the Awakening movement was also operating in Sunni-majority districts of Baghdad, such as Ameriya, Adhamiya, and parts of Ghazaliya and Jihad, Omary said. He predicted it was unlikely to last for more than a few months. It was a "temporary deal" with the US and would split apart as people realised the Americans’ true intentions.
He cited last week’s announcement that the Bush administration plans to work with the Shia-led government of Nuri al-Maliki on arrangements for long-term US military bases and an open-ended occupation in Iraq.
Seems to me I’ve seen this movie before. Oh, right, this was predicted by Dennis Jett nearly a year ago, when Bush first announced his "surge" plans:
The year 2007 undoubtedly will bring its share of unexpected events. But here is one that should catch nobody by surprise: President Bush’s announcement early in the New Year that he is sending more troops to Iraq.
He will justify the "surge" in the number of soldiers as absolutely essential for "victory." They are really needed for one last desperate attempt to save his place in history, however.
Before the November elections, he asserted that the United States absolutely was winning in Iraq. Now that even he admits that is not true, a change in policy would seem in order. Officially he is reviewing the situation, gathering advice and considering his options. That is just so much theater.
[...]
The last step is to come up with a mission for the troops to do. Colin Powell, the president’s chief enabler when it came to going to war, is now trying to improve his image by pointing out an increase makes no sense without a mission.
A mission will be conjured up despite the fact there is little that can be accomplished with more American troops. The sources of violence in Iraq mainly are Shiite militias and Sunni insurgents. The militias often are part of the Iraqi government, however.
The most recent example of that is the operation undertaken by British troops on Christmas Day in the southern city of Basra. They attacked and destroyed a police station because the unit headquartered there was little more than a Shiite death squad. The Sunni insurgents can be repressed, but only for a time and at tremendous cost. If the cost is too high for the insurgents, they can retreat and wait out the surge.
Gee, that’s exactly what they’re doing now. Who’d a’ thunk it?
Dennis Jett, that’s who, and pretty much everyone else with sense:
There is no way forward in Iraq because the sectarian divide has become too deep, the corrupting influence of oil revenue is too strong and the intervention of neighboring states too destructive and pervasive. The president can’t erase the divide or reduce the corruption. And, trapped by his own rhetoric, he won’t even talk to Iran and Syria.
No comment. None necessary.
(Graphic by soldiersmediacenter and posted on Flickr under a Creative Commons license.)
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PW!
I told them downstairs. Now to read the post!
Things are going so swimmingly in Iraq these days I hear…seen this????
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7127050.stm
Well, it’s been practically “embargoed”….
Also, think about it….it puts “terra” pressure on P.M. Gordon……..
Sounds suspicious to me….
Bush still wants to blow Iran up. My gawd.
Obviously the solution with Iran is to bomb them into submission. Just like Iraq.
I’m outraged that W is still walking and flying round on his broomstick today, in light of his blatant lies to the United States of America yesterday. Where is the outrage??? If he’d lie about that, he’d lie about everything. He’s a liar, period. He’s still hell bent on war…and he’s taking the “best defense is offense”….how many more obvious actions do these people have to take for people to realize what these people are doing??
Liar!!! Impeach or arrest…or something!!!
Actually, the Sunnis weren’t repressed by the surge. A tribal vs al Qaeda in Iraq conflict led to a de facto truce with us. This shift beginning late last year pre-dated the surge by a couple of months.
Both Sunni and Shia Sadrist militias have been observing a truce with us which has in part led to a decline in US casualty rates. Neither of these truces is permanent and both could fall apart in the next few months. The Sunnis aren’t getting the help from the central government they were promised and the Sadrist truce has a time limit on it which is running out.
Despite all the hype of the surge working, today SecDef Gates decided not to transfer Marines from Anbar to the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan. This is clear evidence that Anbar is nowhere near the done deal it is portrayed to be.
Thanks PW.
Henry Kissinger installed Saddam as the Sunni counterweight to Shia Iranian. Everyone, who knew anything about the ME told him that invading would destabilize the entire region. They also told him that invading would only make Iran and Russia more dominant. Bush ignored them, and now he is using my tax dollars to rebuild Kissinger’s Sunni counterweight.
speaking of movies we’ve seen before.
peru “free trade” act passed overwhelmingly in the senate yesterday.
probably because we’ve seen how well nafta has worked out, it makes sense to expand it. /sarcasm
Neighborhood cleansings, graft, corruption, cholera and starvation. Golly gosh, one might almost imagine there’s a method to this madness (thank heavens for Naomi Klein!).
Thank you PW>
Wonder what could have been if impeachment had remained on the table.
Steve Gilliard, posting a year before he died:
“No Iraqi government that formally agrees with the idea of even semi-permanent bases there, can survive without the american military to prop them up.”
Or words very close to that.
And, nothing has changed. Nor will it.
As far as I know Henry the K is still advising the WH as what to do.
He’s apparently a narcissistic manic! He’s a maniac….and a liar!!
I’m beginning to wonder about “that woman”.
Grab your coat and get your hat
Leave your worries on the doorstep
Life can be so sweet
On the Sunni side of the street
Can’t you hear the pitter-pat
Of the machine gun – watch your step
Life can become: plead
On the Sunni side of the street
In a possible new Democratic administration, some rather severe changes need to be instigated.
Kiddo, if we nominate someone who can and will, go after bush and the repubs with both barrels for the shitmire, we may yet see impeachment lying on the table, throbbing and pulsating. :o)
If the mid-summer polls start showing a democratic tsunami building, does anyone really think that the GOP will be so much in love with the notion of protecting george bush’s legacy, that they won’t put his ass on a barbecue-spit on the white house lawn, and invite the american people to come and turn him?
LOL
I do not understand it, LS. This guy is batshit crazy, and nobody with any power seems to do anything. How can this be?
The Sunni insurgents can be repressed, but only for a time and at tremendous cost. If the cost is too high for the insurgents, they can retreat and wait out the surge.
Well, now you know the end-date for paying Sunni’s to do our killing for us. It ends January 19, 2009. GWB will then have his tiny little legacy, and be able to claim “hey, it was good while *I* was running things – the Democrats lost the war”.
Just a few headlines in one Iraqi newspaper today.
I keep worrying that they’ve decided to find other solutions for the lack of boots on the ground in terms of an army. I’m thinking they’re just gonna hire more guns, as in mercenary soldiers. The price would probably have to grow, because I expect these would have to come with their own armor, hell, their own bullets. And then there’s Iran and Pakistan.
Let me put it this way:
If we nominate someone who’s pissed to the max, about what bush and Co. have done to us, and to Iraq, then, 6-8 months from now, throwing bushturds under the bus will become an Olympic sport for the goopers.
:o)
I don’t know….I’m pullin’ my hair out in frustration…yesterday, the Commander Codpiece blatantly lied to the people, and today he’s bangin’ the drums again, and no one is doing diddlysquat about any of it….
What did Condi know and when?
What did Hadley know and when?
What did McConnell know and when?
Who told Bush and when?
Everything, and I mean everything, in this Governement needs to come to a grinding halt, Now! These questions need to be answered, Now! This is completely obvious. What are they afraid of? Anthrax???? Oh, yeah……
That is an interesting observation.
Other reasons the Sunni’s aren’t going anywhere. They control the water in Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
Bush, in spite of the NIE, wants to punish Iran for their “covert” illegal programs” which apparently ended in 2003. Hey George, what is the statute of limitations on covert illegal programs?
Seems like a fact you might want to have at hand for future
defenseuse.But Cheney says Iraq will be a model of democracy by 2009: with flowers and candy and everything.
No one could have predicted this.
No one could have predicted this.
But who? Which candidate would even consider going after these criminals??? Zero…none of them.
Thanks ES.
I thought the surge was working.Thanks ES.
I thought the surge was working.Kissinger didn’t install Saddam Hussein. Saddam was a key player in the Baathist coup in 1968 and quickly became the guy pulling the strings although he did not assume the Presidency until 1979 in a party purge.
The Shah fled Iran in January 1979. Before this Iran was a major Western ally so there was no need for Iraq to be a counterweight against it. Indeed if anything the reverse was true. It was only with the Iranian Revolution and as the Iran-Iraq War begun in 1980 dragged on that we began to see Iraq as a counterweight to Iraq and starting giving aid to Iraq in the war. Of course, in 1987 Iran-Contra began so we were supplying both sides at that point.
Oh Christ – John Bolton clip on KO bitching about U.S. Intelligence agencies “politicizing” the intel.
Where could he ever have gotten the idea that intel could possibly be spun for political gain?
JayT@21; they aint got THAT much patience.
And if we dems are smart enough to elect the right candidate, the clear perceptions we read on here about WHY the splurge is “working”, will be part of the general.
Which they fucking well should be.
Also, I happen to believe in the self-preservation instinct enough that I think the “use-by” date for bush’s bribing the Sunnis bullshit, and threatening Maliki, will have expired sometime in the election, because the dems will be looking at the flaming turd-bouquet and thinking:
“Do we really want to clutch THIS to our bosom, while the people who created it head back to their little corporate-boardroom sinecures and get out the “Who lost Iraq?!!!” machetes?
We have never IMAGINED a political 12 months like the one we’re now entering.
Bush vs. Irak. Bush vs. Iran. Bush vs. principles, the Constitution, and We the People.
You have to give the Serial Prevaricator credit for consistency. Some legacy!
Anthrax…
George W. Iran. Can anybody disagree with this man?
Someone pissed off at how she’s been smeared by this cabal?
Sorry to all. I stand corrected.
Also apologies for my comment above that Sunni’s control Saudi Arabia. I was trying to say that Sunni’s in Saudi Arabia support, fund the Sunni’s in Iraq.
Actually, Henry Kissinger might pass these days for sanity.
You’ve got a good point there!! She even named the cabal….I just wish she wouldn’t “act” like them!!
Saudi Arabia is Sunni.
Can’t do diddley if you’re not elected.
No
Well, if you do a surge right in the middle of someone else’s civil war and make a lot of noise and it gets quiet, OF COURSE they’re hunkering down, laughing at the occupiers and waiting till they leave. What other possible explanation could there be?
I mean, really — a fifth grader could figure that one out.
Yeah, LOL, that was rich. Bolton, STFU.
So Boosh wants to punish Iran for an illegal “covert” program that ended in 2003. Hey Georgie, what’s the statute of limitations w/r/t punishment for “illegal covert programs”?
Seems like a fact he might wanna have close at hand for his future
defenseuse…What? Nah…. He’s the Godfather of the syndicate.
Murray Waas has more dirt on Huckleberry.
not just bush.
what lab was making weaponized anthrax?
Heh.
Think about it. An otherwise calm afternoon. The earth shakes a little and a cloud roughly resembling a mushroom suddenly comes into view out your kitchen window. If you like the view, vote Republican.
That is so right. D’Oh…..us?????
I agree. But that wasn’t the point. ;0)
from Murray’s article:
Huckabee, in turn, has said that all four parole board members have lied about his role in Dumond’s release from prison.
Yeah, that oughta fly…
Yeah, haha, Huck has his Willie Horton thingy, Bootie Bandit Ghouliani is reduced to claiming he’s Reagan reincarnate, and — “Holy Underwear!” — Mitt has a big Pinata problem.
Gotta love it.
Watch “Why We Fight”..Science network…10:30 CT. Dish 353…don’t miss it if you have the chance to watch it…it is on Youtube too, I think.
There oughta be tapes, or a transcript, of the Dumond parole hearing, I would think…
If we’re going to beat the Muslims we are going to have to go nuclear. Is that clear?
I’d hate to be a republican candidate right about now. Not a one of them has anything to offer except god and FEAR.
bingo.
and i don’t think all that work (research and manufacturing) on biological weapons was done during the first 8 months of bush’s presidency.
Absolutely!
No sh*t. Irony.
Wonder what could have been if impeachment had remained on the table.
You’d think being in the halls of congress, they would know more then us peon .
HOW THE HECK DID THEY EVER LET IT GO this far
JayT gets the “let’s all blow chunks!” post-of-the-night award, for putting up that about John Bolton pissing and moaning about “intelligence being politicized”.
Was there another human being in the room with him, when he said that?
I mean, who can read and write and understand the spoken word?
Was the person photographing it a semi-literate entity who was around for the run-up to the clusterfuck, and for the koolaid-dispensing used to sustain it?
Inquiring minds want to know.
WRT Saudi Arabia being Sunni, yes the ruling family is Sunni and the majority of Saudi Arabia is Sunni. But, my understanding is that the minority population and a lot of the oil field workers in Saudi Arabia are Shia.
Y’see, according to Bootie Bandit Ghouliani, them Irain-eee-en Terrists pissed their aggregate raggy britches and released our hostages pronto when they saw Ronnie Raygun’s hand on that bible, yerssiree.
Do you really think if Russia, Pakistan, India and China have finally decided they’ve had enough of American belligerence that we can subdue them in a nuclear showdown?
in my more cynical moments, i think it’s because they couldnt’ think of anything to impeach him for that dems hadn’t done too (even if only to a lesser degree).
Pelosi messed everything up. Why? Why? Why?
W said yesterday that he saw her at the “ball”….
That is the frikkin’ problem!!
Pelosi’s lack of responsibility in her position is literally endangering the friggin’ world. Schmoozer flirt!!
I have minus zero respect for that woman.
Let’s find out. It’s ballsy.
That’s kinda what I think. Particularly Russia and China. They can easily see the U.S. ruination Bu’ush has caused. He’s now the fucking black knight at the stream crossing in “Holy Grail.”
Respect minus zero. No limit.
Is that the one who says “Let’s call it a draw” or something like that? Been a long time.
Nail it !….. term limits opps thats off the table
Fixed. *g*
I’ve thought that, too. “Geez, if we make that into a high crime or high misdemeanor, some day down the road, we’ll be fucked.”
my working hypothesis is that she is no ally of ours.
ummm, Bolton also is calling for the House and Senate Intelligence Committees to look into this matter in order to find out how such a thing could happen. Suspects an evil cabal inside the intel community operating on a nefarious agenda.
Irony so thick you could cut it with a
knife,axe,chain saw, industrial grade laser.I second that.
Isx anything happening on the Waxman/Fitgerald/stonealling front? I have a feeling the blogosphere is going to have to push that story. After Bush commuted Libby’s sentence and said “It’s time to move on,” I think most of the MSM said “OK.”
Start by cutting his sorry a** out of anything. He is an ignoramus of the highest kind. Why would anyone listen to him?? He’s a zero.
Bob, I think the two main reasons it’s gone on, are:
1. That stopping it is now going to mean some major changes in the U.S. Government, and in our own life-styles, because pulling the trigger on Iraq was SO stupid and venal, that getting out of Vietnam was a REAL cakewalk compared with what’s coming down the pike in Iraq.
2. The people who COULD stop it, are part of the same “I’ve got mine; screw you, Jack!” mentality that Kurt Vonnegut spoke of.
What is happening, is that now, WE are in the process of leading THEM.
It’s painful, for them, and I think, for us, too. But enough people are pissed about what bush has done, that we have an excellent chance to run the fatcat-protectors in both parties back into the political wilderness.
But, to start finding some solutions (and there really are none, regarding Iraq; there, it’s just bring the troops home and eat some LARGE helpings of shit) it’s awfully important that we pick a nominee whom, as much as possible, hasn’t been part of the problem.
Which, we here at the Lake, are sorta/kinda helping to do. :o)
that should be “stonewalling”. This is mean. Expecting me to proof my own typos.
yup.
what president hasn’t lied to us in order to bomb or otherwise attack another country? (maybe carter?)
did we have a biological weapons program under clinton? looks like it.
did we kidnap people and then bring them to egypt to be tortured or executed under clinton? looks like it.
…it’s too depressing to continue, but you get the idea.
Like you said: yup.
Bolton? Koo-koo-ka-choo
He’s auditioning for a new job, like Wolfowitz…
Hey what’s the topic here, anyway? The surge is bullshit, right?
JayT;
When Bolton said that, the other person in the room should have snapped his own head around in shock, and then said:
“I do this on behalf of a half-million or more dead human beings, and their families.”
and then he should have slapped the koolaid-residue out of Bolton’s mouth.
Dang funnit! Finally! A big blow here in the Isles knocked out Oahu’s power grid, and, *poof* there goes everybody’s (Neighbor Isles) access to the web! 8-(
Selise – Do you have any links about this, por favor?
Anybody know where to find out whether a bus bombing/explosion outside of Baghdad has been reported anywhere? Yesterday; 16 victims at least. Don’t see anything in MSM (what did I expect).
But seriously, they’ve (i.e. the Iraqis who are killin’ our people) have been doin’ this from the day we invaded. They go away and come back to wreak havoc another day. What will it take for this Fucktard to learn?
Hi all. I think Pelosi and Reid are the way they are mainly (not exclusively) because they’ve been told that if they attack W, Baker & Bush Sr. & Co. are going to release Cheney & PNAC & Co. to do Something Very Very Bad that is going to result in Very Very Big Hurt to all of us. See Emptywheel’s post “NIE Timeline, Take Three”.
The years are right but don’t you think that Henry K had a back up plan?
Thanks for your input
jo6pac
well, he was behind a podium, so I assume there were several people there. Mighta taken a while.
I can neither confirm nor deny that I agree with slapping Bolton, (unless you mean it, as I’m sure you do), figuratively.
Here’s reality. The presdinent went in front of the world and lied…flat out lied to the World…yesterday.
No explanation needed. He lied, we know he lied. He’s a liar.
Today, he tried an old tactic, offense is the best defense, to cover up the lies. He’s a liar. They are liars……They’ve been doing it for years…hundreds of thousands of people have died…dead…dead…because they lie.
Oy Vey. Same old story.
i wish i didn’t … here’s the one that broke the news to me.
What will it take for this Fucktard to learn?
Well, that’s pretty much the 500 Billion Dollar question, now innit?
OK. Got it. 14 killed, 28+ wounded across Tigris from the Green Zone as Gates visits. http://my.earthlink.net/articl…..1783383667
What conceivable reason is there for attacking innocent people like this? I know it’s getting late, but my head is just finding it difficult to put itself in a bomber’s frame of mind. Why?
Selise, that’s some serious F*ckery… Apparently the ‘Jack Bauer’ syndrome set in much earlier… 8-(
It wasn’t just Pelosi but Reid, Hillary, Obama, and even Conyers and Leahy. They wanted us around for the election but once that was over it was back to business as usual. All of them could have exercised powerful leadership if they had reached out to and maintained a working relationship with the netroots and the Democratic base but instead of using us to put pressure on their more conservative colleagues they took impeachment off the table, caved on issue after issue, failed to make the Republicans pay a price for their obstruction, and whined about veto proof majorities.
Thanks selise, My poor google skills on recent attempts revealed only gossip/chatter about it.
You always have just what I am looking for.
Well, So much for the State of Hawaii’s cyber-business promotion story, eh? Pretty novel definition of ‘Enterprise Zone’ if it doesn’t include both reliable power and reliable internet backbone…
BTW, newish post upstairs
On a positive note, the Progressive Caucus has exerted their newfound muscle… 8-)
serious fuckery indeed. and it’s jane mayer writing for the new yorker (with their amazing fact checking team)… i don’t think reporting gets any more reputable than that. :(
this is one of the reasons i go around saying how much i despise president bill clinton….
replying to Eureka Springs @ 107
sorry. :(
this is one of the reasons i (now) am so insistent on hold Ds to the same standards we use to condemn Rs. i wasn’t paying attention during the clinton presidency, for which i am deeply sorry. and i don’t want to make that mistake again.
On the Albanian operation:
http://obsidianwings.blogs.com…..ary_r.html
Well, at least each Isle’s power grid is independent…
yes. it sure looks like they told the house leadership to go jump in the lake on fisa… they did good. hope they can hold it together for whatever comes back to them from conference committee.
Did you guys know that Bolton had a penthouse at the Waldorf Astoria while in his recess appointed position at the UN? My daughter and I visited NYC for the first time and were doing some checking things out. Took the elevator past the regular rooms to where people live, got off on the top floor, and were greeted by Bolton’s security. It was clearly marked at the security desk, right outside Bolton’s room, who lived there.
Our tax dollars…
Better that way, yah? Otherwise the extension cords get all salty.
True! I hope a few members will be on the CC… Did ya see Lederman’s take on the Scotus Oral Arguments, he seems to think Kennedy will swing left… 8-)
thanks. hilzoy is great (it’s unsigned, so i’m assuming).
fingers crossed.
What get’s my goat is the fact the Big Isle doesn’t have it’s own splice onto the Fiber Optic cable running to the Mainland… 8-(
I don’t know that Kissinger ever had much of a plan. Maybe he thought he did. A lot of people credit him with strategic vision. I don’t. Aside from China, all of his efforts were and remain crap. He believed in extention of American power and defense of Israel but wasn’t particularly good at either.
That’s is kinda strange, especially when you consider the University, the telescopes, the science missions at Kilauea, and the many USG installations.
Yes sir, truer words are seldom spoken. We had Sadaam in a box, no fly North and South. We had their radar smacked. We had inspectors if we wanted. We had a cheap fix. We had international support. We had UN support. What else could we hope for? Wasn’t the Gulf of Tonkin about starting a war for oil. That the asshola has about broke the military, called our own bluff, raised energy prices for the “enemy” (how dumb is that when most oil comes from there. Except the good ol boys with in ground oil are making windfall profits. The Bush family are the boys fron hell that specialize in S&L breakins. ‘These people are lower than whale shit at the bottom of the ocean’ which was my USMC boot camp DI endearing remark along with give your soul to god because your ass belongs to me. This is a crime family. Henry was their bud. Baker/Botts should lose the re license. The Repugs should be put on the Luoisiana prison farms with the Katrina victims. . Time to put a leach on the Isreal lobby.
BINGO!
Unclaimed baggage
Well, as I remember it, Kissinger had the launch codes at one time, as Nixon unravelled.
Which situation, we may need to repeat, at some point in the not-too-distant future.
Some changes will occur if a Dem gets elected Pres: the SCLM will immediately find that it can point out the inaccuracies of the WH (even if the SCLM has to get them from the RNC, which, of course, it doesn’t do now), the rethug elected congresscritters will strongly oppose the WH (and the Dem congressional leadership), the SCLM will launch many investigative reporters and find out that Dem Pres is “soft on terra cauz he/she will not attack (Syria or Iran”), which ever is the current whipping boy, and there will by no “honeymoon.”
Sorry for the double post. The program told me that there was a database error and to resubmit.