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. Zogby has Clinton 27%, Obama 24%, Edwards 21%, and Richardson 8% in Iowa. Strategic Vision has Obama at 32% in Iowa with Clinton and Edwards tied at 25% each. With under-30s breaking heavily for Obama, it’s no wonder Clinton is trying to discourage college voters. But according to David Yepsen of the DesMoines Register:
Obama is placing a big bet on attracting young people to the caucuses, despite the fact they’re notoriously poor voters and caucusgoers. Only 2 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers are under age 25, while 51 percent are over age 55. On top of that, only 23 percent of the Democrats say this will be their first caucus.
(Memo to Obama: You may want to start showing up for those AARP forums – and save the children’s crusades for a state that isn’t so full of us aging boomers and gray woolies.)
Hence, we assume, all the "Social Security needs saving" rhetoric.
(It’s worth noting that Pollster.com challenges the 2% figure, and putting it slightly higher but with the caveat that it’s damn difficult to predict.)
. The momentum is definitely on Obama’s side, and Hillary’s lead in New Hampshire has Obama within striking distance according to the latest Washington Post poll, which has Clinton at 35%, Obama at 29% and Edwards at 17%.
This seems to be Obama’s best showing yet against Hillary in New Hampshire. And other findings in the poll suggest that her rivals’ attacks may be continuing to work, with far more saying that she doesn’t say what she truly thinks than say the same of her competitors.
At the same time, however, the poll finds that more Hillary supporters are definitely sticking with their candidate, and also that fewer of those who may change their minds support her, suggesting more solid support for her than for Obama, the pollsters argue.
. Chris Cillizza reports that AFSCME has gone into Iowa on for Clinton, much like they did in ’04 with SEIU on behalf of Dean. This cycle, however, SEIU’s decision to let individual states choose their candidates saw Iowa go to Edwards.
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Jane!
I do not support Obama.
Obama is getting a look.
However, in the end I think Hillary will win it because support for Obama won’t hold up.
Oh alright. I give up. I’m ready to vote for Obama/Clinton. Or the other way round. Well… perhaps, not quite just yet.
The U.S. voter will be left with 2 bad choices in 2008.
Look to the future.
Anyone let downstairs know a new thread is up?
Are you feeling OK?
Have a fever or sumpin?
Well… Lahoma’s not here and she isn’t due in until tomorrow afternoon. ;0)
man, I don’t like clinton but between obama and clinton I would much rather clinton
/me still holding out for either edwards or a hero
Obama doesn’t do it for me. too much Lieberman residue.
what’s up with clinton “Bashing the Youth Vote” and pissing off emptywheel?
i liked it better when only the Rs were working to suppress the vote. yuck.
IMO, stuffing the ballot boxes with illegal out-of-state students is as bad as suppressing the vote.
I should say “packing the caucuses”
i’m glad obama is encouraging participation of the younger people. they are the future of the party and of our country.
When push comes to shove, I’ll take the Hill.
who said anything about illegal? it’s perfect legal for college students to register to vote in the state they are going to school in…. you know – the state the are actually living in for at least most of the year?
why?
I am glad to see that the thing isn’t sewn up yet. MSM may have decided that they have to write about this stuff for another 11 months, so it was best not to declare a winner too soon.
Why am I reading this? I hate the horse race! Please, let it be over soon. I’ll vote for the Democrat.
Come on HRC. Just let us know that bombing Iran is not going to happen without direct and verifiable provocation during your presidential tenure. You have the cover to do that in view of the latest just released Iran/no nuke-data. That would make a difference in this house.
One of the gray woolies still holding out for Gore!
“Horserace” random name asociation:
Santa Anita Hill
I want to rid the WH of Republicans. And then I’ll work from there. But there are other Dems I prefer to Clinton.;0)
We like Gore. Very much.
“Horserace” random name asociation:
Santa Anita Hill
Over the Hills
As more info comes out about Obama, it looks as if he could give Hillary lessons in cynical political manipulation. When he talked about his ability to work with Thugs like his good friend Tom Coburn that really moved him down on my list. The “present” votes on choice at a “grand” political strategy, moved him to the bottom. His ‘05 d-kos diary also smells like Lieberman.
d-kos
i want to rid the whitehouse of warmongers.
Senator Biden should announce tonight that he is quitting his campaign for President and returning immediately to his Senate office to begin investigation/oversight of whatthehell happened in the NIE story.
He has a higher calling now than being an also ran. History and democracy need him now. We Americans and truth need him now.
I can’t believe I’m agreeing with Pat Buchanan [tonight on Hardball].
Me, too.
I like RFK but he isn’t coming back from the grave and Gore (my first choice) ain’t running.
i don’t think a candidate who is not an expert in “cynical political manipulation” is on offer (at least in first and second tiers).
Except that I don’t have anything against HRC, I couldn’t have said it better. I hope no one’s enthusiasm takes them past the point of no return for the general election, or serves to turn anyone else toward voting Republican.
I guess I’ll go to the caucuses but the only Dem I can support is Kucinich. I’ve had a belly full of Dems talking like fascists.
The good thing about Obama doing well in Iowa is that it may do away with Hillary’s inevitability factor and free up some voters’ thinking about considering other candidates.
The bad thing is that it might help the “Not ready for primetime” Obama to the nomination.
I agree..If a politician doesn’t have a monumental ego and engage in political manipulation..they don’t get elected..and have very short careers.
sadly, i am in no danger of suffering from an over-abundance of enthusiasm.
I understand exactly what you are telling me. And I cannot differ with what you are saying, my friend. ;0)
During the past ten or 15 years, when Republicans controlled everything, why would anyone who actually favored world conquest, big business domination, funnelling the wealth into the hands of the few have called themselves a Republican? Why would they have carried the Democratic name if they were what they are sometimes currently accused of? Hordes of southern “former” democrats showed their true colors. Why would anyone not have followed suit?
Oh Bobby, we miss you so. ;0)
I had to stop taking him seriously when he said ron paul might make a good vice president
that’s bizzare
Hi!
OT, Robert Greenwald has a new YouTube up. Homeland Security for Sale.
I’m a Hillary supporter, but I don’t like this business of her asking students to vote in their own states. Major mistake in my opinion, too, selise.
because they could not have gotten elected – not all of the country was willing to elect Rs to congress.
Another thought, cynical political may be part of the game, I guess the question is there “a line”? Obama crossed one of my lines with his choice votes. Hillary was also one of the few that voted against Roberts, Alito, Ashcroft, and Gonzo.
Correction:
During the past ten or 15 years, when Republicans controlled everything, why would anyone who actually favored world conquest, big business domination, funnelling the wealth into the hands of the few have not have called themselves a Republican? Why would they have carried the Democratic name if they were what they are sometimes currently accused of? Hordes of southern “former” democrats showed their true colors. Why would anyone not have followed suit?
yeah… just want to say, as much as i really don’t like senator clinton… please know that i respect and support your choice and anything neg. i say about her is in no way meant as a criticism of her supporters.
fact is, i have no idea who would make the best president.
The NewsHour has a newsmaker interview with John Negroponte, former ambassador to Iraq, Director of National Intelligence, and currently No. 2 in the State Department.
Surprisingly, he thought that the 2005 IC report was solid and showed that Iran was after the bomb, Iran is still pursuing elements of a nuclear weapons “program”, that everything is hunky dory in Iraq, and that the complete absence of any movement on a political settlement is no big deal and probably will work itself out in “a few months”.
This guy’s whole career is an argument for war crimes tribunals.
Exactly, we don’t need a political dilettante for president.
that would be gore
that would be edwards
in that order
I know that. Thanks.
I think it is odd that students don’t vote absentee in their home states. Maybe times have changed and there is no longer the concept of home state.
We’re doing a good job of getting used to answering each other without the “quote that comment” feature, huh?
personally i don’t almost don’t care anymore about why politicians do what they do (except as a predictor of future behavior). i care more about what they do… in fact i’d rather have a fence sitting prevaricator than a genuine warmonger.
and if there are lines, i think most (all?) of the candidates have already crossed mine. but that doesn’t absolve me from the responsibility of trying to figure out which one i think is best (or least bad) for the country.
If a student is paying out-of-state tuition it seems to me that they shouldn’t vote in Iowa.
that is also my opinion.
I feel it necessary to say the objective is to take the keys to the WH away from the Republicans. Among other things we are talking about future appointments to SCOTUS.
Future behavior if the question, isn’t it? With Hillary, the wing-nuts and the anti-Hillary left can’t both be right.
I think a lot of college kids just plain don’t vote. This is a smart move on Obama’s part.
Seems like there ought to be a law about where out of state students vote. Same with military.
even if their permanent address is where they are going to school? even if they are now registered to vote in their school state?
you think they shouldn’t be allowed to vote at all?
The Department of Homeland Security from its inception was one enormous boondoggle whose primary product was not security but pork. Only one man was up to running such an enterprise, Michael Chertoff, the most incompetent official in American government and possibly our history.
mine 3, Gore would definitely be the best.
Actually, H.R. Clinton as president, might turn out okay.
This is the difference between the Cowardly Lion (Democrats) and the Wicked Witch of the West (Republicans).
It seems to me that if their permanent address is really in Iowa they would be eligible to pay in-state tuition.
Many years, only portions of the northeast were blue. John Edwards, for example, could have probably more easily won as a Republican in NC. Even Bill Clinton could have been as successful in Arkansas if he were a Republican. Among the current candidates, it appears to me that Clinton, and maybe Obama, are the only ones who come from states which are fairly reliably blue and Clinton selected hers.
What if a student going to school in Iowa comes from a state that holds caucuses rather than a primary? Is there a procedure for someone to “vote absentee” in a caucus state? I have not heard of one (caucus states do not use ballots). They should not be forced to physically return to their home state in order to participate in the presidential nomination process.
FYI, new post
No, you are OK. I hate to keep reminding you of this. *g*
Hillary has a tendency to persist in her mistakes.
Not yet Steve!but if it is an unavoidable horse race,
it could get dicey at the convention with competing camps
and that might help our guy get into the fray.
in my dreams i could see that if the dem base did not get distracted by the right-wing noise machine smears and attacks… and instead did the kind of citizen oversight that we should have been doing while president bill clinton was fucking us over…. but were too outraged by the so-call whitewater and monica “scandals” to be paying enough attention to clinton’s neo-liberal bs (privatization, corportization, deregulation and economic strangulation).
The R candidates look even pitiful when I compare them with Gore, Howard Dean or Edwards. I want all 3 in the next administration in some capacity.
i doubt that. every school i went to required a year of local permanent residency prior to enrolling in order to get the in-state discounts. didn’t matter if you’d been living in the state constantly for 3 years – if none of the time was prior to enrolling.
As has been widely reported, Negroponte’s brother is on the committe that is supposed to asure the
Wall Street Journal’s editorial independence after Rupert Murdoch takes over.
707 in advance.
Starts at the top. This has all been brilliantly planned and executed. Can it be stopped is the question.
Obama is clearly my candidate, and Edwards would be second, but I’m afraid that reality is that Obama Girl and the “Gotta get in line to get that overpriced and underfunctional Iphone the second it comes out” set is hardly going to turn out in more than miniscule numbers in any primary or general election. They never have, and I doubt they ever will.
A draft would get their attention from “Gossip Girl” and reality shows for idiots for half a minute.
How ’bout that the Bushies took a call from their little twin after Ellen egged her on on National TV–is that spine tingling or what. If Jenna had had any sense of humor, she would have started with “Dad–I have new information about the N.I.E. and Iran.”
Does anyone know the predictive success of polling the Iowa caucuses? ’cause it ain’t like a primary.
Did they ask him about death sqauds in El Salvador? No? Didn’t think so.
Preach it brother perris.
I started this race as an Edwards supporter and nothing has changed my mind. I like my candidate and I like his policy proposals. But one thing I don’t like about this campaign is how the MSM has covered it. I dread the general election coverage.
In my humble opinion, Obama will win Iowa.
Umm – not illegal if they’re registered.
Edwards scares me with his campaign against the Democrats which GE/CNBC/MSNBC has been supporting him in.
On Wednesday his scary ad appeared on GE stations where he is screeming:
“Some people say that as long as we get Democrats we will be Ok, (then shouts out THAT’S A LAA.” I am scared since MSNBC debate in which Mathews egged Obama on for days to attack Hillary, then Russert asked Her erroneous questions based on Republican talking points (as usual!), and blatent lies, and then Edwards and Obama VALIDATED THESE and attacked her. this is nut!!
The “youth” vote consists of students and non-students 18 years and older (generally considered to be 26, arising from the Vietnam era concerning eligible draft age). Any analysis of the youth vote which does not bifurcate the student/nonstudent vote misses the point.
Caveat: In 1972 “students” in California were polled 50/50 as splitting between Nixon and McGovern.
Stop the Clintons, now.