Like a lot of people, I’ve been scrambling around trying to get a handle on what’s going on in Pakistan. Here’s the latest, as reported by the New York Times today:
Gen. Pervez Musharraf told his national security council today that parliamentary elections would be held before Feb. 15 and that he would give up his military uniform before taking the oath of office for his new term as president of Pakistan.
As he made the statement, his security forces clamped down hard on the main opposition party of Benazir Bhutto, arresting as many as 500 party members last night and today, party workers and diplomats said. The arrests appeared to be an attempt to thwart a protest rally planned by Ms. Bhutto for Friday, the party workers and diplomats said.
General Musharraf, the president, did not set a specific date for parliamentary elections, and it was unclear whether the new timetable would satisfy opposition parties and Western governments, which have been demanding bluntly that he end emergency rule, step down from his post as head of the army and allow elections to go ahead as planned.
Rather than attempt to untangle the uncertainties left in the wake of Musharraf’s announcement, I think it might be more helpful to highlight the behind-the-scenes wrangling described by the Times last night:
Amid a deepening crisis in Pakistan, Bush administration officials have begun pushing Gen. Pervez Musharraf on several fronts to reverse his state of emergency, quietly making contact with other senior army generals and backing Pakistan’s opposition leader as she carries out back-channel negotiations with the general.
Military attachés from the United States and several other Western nations are discreetly contacting senior Pakistani generals and asking them to press General Musharraf to back down from the emergency decree he issued Saturday, according to Western diplomats.
Why talk to the generals? To understand this, it helps to have read Spencer Ackerman’s scoop yesterday for TPM Muckraker, in which he explained that U.S. aid to Pakistan includes more than $1 billion per year in cash to top military officials. As both Matt Yglesias and Josh Marshall allude to, this “aid” appears to be a form of walking-around money — that is, we pay off the Pakistani generals, and Musharraf gets to keep walking around.
But that’s not the only relevant conversation going on, says the NYT:
. . . General Musharraf sought to assure Mr. Bush that his power grab was temporary and that he still planned to call for elections, Pakistani and American officials said. At the same time, two aides to General Musharraf acknowledged that aides to the general and the opposition leader Benazir Bhutto were engaged in negotiations, even as her supporters clashed with police outside Parliament and she threatened larger protests on Friday.
“Talks back channel are going on with her,” said Tariq Azim Khan, the government’s minister of state for information.
Ms. Bhutto’s approach dovetailed with the American effort to defuse the situation in Pakistan and avoid major unrest in the country. And it left open the possibility that she and General Musharraf could yet return to the power-sharing arrangement envisioned when she returned to Pakistan last month after eight years in exile.
. . . In a sign of the closeness between Ms. Bhutto and Washington, the opposition leader met after her news conference with the American ambassador to Pakistan, Anne W. Patterson. The perception among Pakistani analysts is that Ms. Bhutto is being guided by Washington. “She’s listening to the Americans, no one else,” said Najam Sethi, the editor in chief of The Daily Times, and a sympathizer to her cause.
Okay, so we’re talking to the generals we’ve been paying to prop up Musharraf, and we’re talking to Bhutto, the opposition leader who is no slouch in the corruption department herself. And Musharraf and Bhutto’s aides are talking to each other, even as she announces public protest rallies and he cracks down on her supporters in the streets.
If this all looks like a giant kabuki exhibition, with Pervez and Benazir staking out negotiating positions before arriving at a “resolution” lubricated with plenty of large-denomination U.S. bills… well, maybe there’s a good reason for it.
Related posts:
- Department of Justice’s Defense Department Advice for CIA
- FDL Book Salon Welcomes Nicholas Schmidle, To Live or to Perish Forever: Two Tumultuous Years in Pakistan
- Dick Cheney Spied on the State Department–Did He Intercept Torture Whistleblower Emails?
- House Intelligence Committee Catches Defense Department Hiding Clandestine Operations
- Pakistan’s Waziristan Offensive Begins





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me?
I get the zeduonfitzeroo?
Swopa!
perris @ 1
yaaayyy!!!
Swopa!!!
Typical Republican; throw money at the problem.
Swopa; excellent thread…not least, because you didn’t paint Bhutto as Mother Teresa.
She aint.
Sorry, OT…
Darth Cheney is up to his old tricks again…
“A National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran has been held up for more than a year in an effort to force the intelligence community to remove dissenting judgments on the Iranian nuclear programme, and thus make the document more supportive of U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney’s militarily aggressive policy toward Iran, according to accounts of the process provided by participants to two former Central Intelligence Agency officers.”
snip
…Cheney’s desire for a “clean” NIE that could be used to support his aggressive policy toward Iran was apparently a major factor in the replacement of John Negroponte as director of national intelligence in early 2007.
Negroponte had angered the neoconservatives in the administration by telling the press in April 2006 that the intelligence community believed that it would still be “a number of years off” before Iran would be “likely to have enough fissile material to assemble into or to put into a nuclear weapon, perhaps into the next decade.”
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=39978
Swopa, you left out the part about “and we’re talking to the press about who we’re talking to behind the scenes.”
The military attaches may be “discreetly contacting senior Pakistani generals and asking them to press General Musharraf to back down” (emphasis added), but there’s nothing subtle about the sharing these discrete conversations with the press.
It’s the DOD version of saying to Musharraf “Nice office you’ve got here. It’d be a shame if anything happened to it.”
CTuttle @ 7
O…M…F…G!
And congress is still playing patty-cake over impeachment.
“I’m surrounded by a–holes!”
Rick Moranis as Dark Helmet
CTuttle @ 7
Actually, Cheney’s probably right here for once. Iran claims to have 3,000 centrifuges. US experts in that area have said they’ll have enough material to build a bomb within a year. Iran is aiming for 54,000 centrifuges. That’s massive industrial scale production.
Israel is going to make a move probably.
I should think both Bhutto and Musharref’s generals would like to be paid in Euros. A billion US doesn’t go as far as it used to.
Peterr @ 8
Dammit… I work hard at coming up with the most cynical angle possible, and in less than 15 minutes someone catches a facet I missed. :)
Woody Allen was right, the hardest part of being a cynic is keeping up.
but no money for S-CHIP
DeafByPills @ 10
Are you advocating shock and awe on Iran…? 8-(
Knut Wicksell @ 11
If supermodels demand euros not dollars then why not generals? http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7078612.stm
Bushie, you’re doing a heck of a job.
DeafByPills @ 10
Care to back that up with a credible link or two?
Bush is easy about giving away other people’s money. He never learned how hard it was to make a buck of his own.
CTuttle @ 14
No, I’m not advocating anything. Israel has a history of striking nuclear facilities when it feels sufficiently threatened enough. They’ve saying they will not allow a nuclear Iran; if they have 3,000 centrifuges, they could potentially make a bomb within a year or two.
the US might not do something; but they’d probably help Israel pull something off.
The real question is–who do you think is walking around with it?
I’m not a prosecutor, but I think if I were, every government contract that I heard of being paid in cash (whether garbage collection or highway construction or new plumbing) would trigger the question: was there a kickback?
It’s well known that Cheney approves of illegal covert activities funded by cash proceeds from other activities:
Cheney’s response, in the minority report on Iran Contra?
Ahmed Rashid in the Washington Post tells us that Pakistan policy is run out of Cheney’s desk.
If I were a muckraking reporter, I’d be looking into whether any of Musharraf’s cash made its way back into the control of OVP. Think Cheney would like to have “literally hundreds of secret agents at [his] own discretion”?
To confound a confusing situation further: there are sensitivities that both China and India have w/r/t any resolution that moves Pakistan one degree further to an Islamic state. Depending on who the general are to whom we are talking (and have been providing support) we may be exacerbating a situation that would lead to regional conflict by three nuclear powers.
Given that State and CIA both have very few South Asia specialists, and that Musharraf is one of Darth Cheney’s BFFs, I’m not very sanguine for a happy outcome.
Swopa @ 12
There’s just so much to be cynical about!
Any truth to the rumor that Cheney is actually a zombie?
{/snark}
Bob in HI
DeafByPills @ 10
BushCo knows how far away Iran is from being able to make nuclear weapons and so does the IAEA.
This pretext to attack Iran is a no go, except in Wingnut circles … neither America nor Israel
can stand any more ‘victories’ like they’ve had these past 4 years.
Swopa @ 12
You bring out the best in folks, Swopa. :)
Knut Wicksell @ 11
O! This subprime mortgage crisis is killing us!
omg – kabuki was exactly the thought that went through my mind when nawaz sharif was not allowed to return but bhutto was (and cleared of all charges).
i hate how i see possibilities of manipulation in everything now-a-days.
Eureka Springs @ 16
Sure, here’s my source:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/t…..827787.ece
Of course, I would like to see independent experts back up what these “US Experts” are saying about having enough material within a year with 3,000 centrifuges.
If these are true, it does warrant some cause for concern, even if Iran maintains its intentions are for energy generation.
When the Pakistani ambassador was asked about the walking around money – he said we present itemized bills every month. Can those be foia’d?
DeafByPills @ 18
I agree with you, on the analysis, all the more reason to call Darth Vader’s bluff, and, force our congress critters to head off an Iranian fiasco…
So if the U.S. is paying the generals and Bhutto’s listening only to the U.S. then this sounds to me like we’re greasing the skids on both sides of this confrontation…?
Yeah, tangled’s one word for it.
DeafByPills @ 10
I’d rather see the whole NIE. Cheney has a well-known history for favoring intelligence that supports his POV, and for disallowing all contrary evidence, no matter how credible. He’s done this before, with Iraq’s so-called WMD, with disasterous consequences, as well as with outing Valerie Plame. He is not to be trusted in national security matters because he has an obvious bias and will twist results to fit his own pet theories. His security clearance should be taken away, but of course unless he is impeached it won’t be. I would not take anything Cheney says at face value.
Bob in HI
Continuing to bribe Pakistani officials to follow our Zio-Zealot policies in the Middle East is a lost cause.
The Muslim population won’t allow it much longer.
DeafByPills @ 10
actually, “us experts say” is not anyone i trust. care to provide a link? thanks.
CTuttle @ 27
Blame it on the people that just dismissed the impeachment bill the other day as “political grandstanding” and do not understand the importance of impeachment NOW. Instead, they’re placing their election concerns over that of the Constitution. Frustrating, really.
Death By Pills _ The NYT cites a US defence official told.. Perhaps the IAEA would be a bit more credible and less anonymous.
Also:
US Iran report branded dishonest
IAEA Says Congress Report on Iran’s Nuclear Capacity is Erroneous …
selise @ 30
That’s why I posted it here. I was hoping someone could find something where credible, independent experts would agree with what the US Experts claim. I’ll keep looking. If it helps, I also heard a mention of it on CNN, Blitzer, but not sure what sources they’re using.
this is a time bomb waiting to explode………..and when it comes it will be a very long bang
Don’t tell TRex, but Amy Winehouse has been arrested.
Enlightening article, Swopa.
DeafByPills @ 25
In my humble opinion, I’m far more concerned about Pakistan’s perilous predicament and DPRK, than, the Persians acquiring fissile material… We’ve taken our eyes of the target once again…!
Bush = Oil
Cheney = Oil
Coni = Oil
Iraq = Oil
Iran = Oil
Pakistan = the means to the end all the way from the “beginning”.
This is not about nukes.
El-Baradei just said there is no evidence of the Iranians making a nuke.
Fool me once…my fault, fool me twice…still my fault.
LS @ 37
“Condi”
DeafByPills -Please excuse my mistake with your name.
DeafByPills @ 25
So, are you claiming that (a) you know something that the people writing the NIE don’t know, or that (b) you have reason to evaluate your source differently (and apparently more highly) than the NIE?
Are you saying here that the NIE has a a bias and that you are better able to evaluate this source than they are? If so, what evidence do you have for this?
I’d say that we KNOW what Cheney’s bias is. I have no particular reason to expect the NIE to be biased– do you? I would guess that the NIE knows your source, and has evaluated it in comparison with the other evidence.
So are you saying that the people writing the NIE are incompetent, or biased? Let’s be clear here. We’re talking about national security.
Bob in HI
peanutbutter @ 28
It’s actually not quite as insane as it may appear; Iran does something similar with the Shiite factions in Iraq (funneling support to all sides even as they battle each other), with an apparently similar goal of keeping the conflict within certain parameters and ensuring their access/clout no matter how things wind up.
See selise’s comment @24 or thereabouts regarding a non-Bhutto opposition pol who got quickly bounced out of the picture. I didn’t have time to dig into it further, but I’m guessing Sharif didn’t send the right signals about playing ball with the Bushites.
Eureka Springs @ 34
Yeah, but that stuff is old. Iran just announced yesterday that they now have 3,000 centrifuges. Now, in the news blurbs, I also noticed this:
They’re publishing a report soon. So Iran could have anywhere from 2,500 – 3,000 centrifuges up soon. That IS from the IAEA. That’s beside the point though, Iran has the right to research nuclear technology and use it for peaceful means.
When was the IPO?
50% of US troops’ supplies flow through Pakistan.
Pakistan airlifted thousands of Taliban to Pakistan (Tora Bora)
ISI/Pakistani General paid $100,000 to Atta via Riggs Bank (which was run by Bush’s uncle at the time)
ISI/Al Qaeda – means to get neocons’ public support to invade the Middle East – for oil.
Professor Foland said:
I always have assumed that a merely assiduous investigator could make an impeachment-worthy case for graft against Cheney, at almost any time since at least 2002 or 2003. That’s one reason the thought of impeaching Bush (and getting Pres. Cheney) never really worried me.
That was in the days of my navet, before I learned that it’s who sets the table that counts.
bobschacht @ 42
No, I’m just saying that if Iran really does have 3,000 centrifuges up, and it’ll only take a year to get enough material to make a bomb — I can understand where Cheney’s coming from. I’m not claiming anything else otherwise, that’s just putting words in my mouth.
They’re trying to set up a situation that satisfies the neocon definition of democracy — elections of some sort are held, and the right people win (see US, Iraq…)
Then they’ll crow about how democratic it is, just like Bush has been calling Musharraf a democratically-elected leader all this time.
Slummy Joe made Atrios’ “Wanker of the Day”.
Redshift @ 49
the neo-cons love those purple fingers
It really is a big conspiracy, and it has been going on for well over 7 years.
DeafByPills @ 46
IAEA says it is not true.
Redshift @ 49
What American policy has been to countries in the ME, Africa, Central and South America is, give the locals a choice between worse or worst, like Limbaugh or O’Reilly. Anyone who threatens the American game plan is bought out or bumped off … in the case of Saddam … both …
Musharraf is to Pakistan is to the USA as Somoza was to Nicaragua was to USA.
It was said that Somoza is a son of a bitch, but he’s our son of a bitch.
Here’s Musharraf in the same role in a different country, (though Pakistan – unlike Nicaragua – is a genuinely anti-American state).
US aid to Pakistan includes more than a billion dollars in CASH to Generals as walking around money.
…Honestly, I’m trying to wrap my mind around sending the cash and who knows how many billions in other “aid” to the country harboring OSAMA bin walkin’ around Laden…
and no SCHIP
no plan for crumbling infrastructure
no retirement for many of us
no health insurance for many working middle class Americans
no way to afford college
foreclosures every day, everywhere
and winter’s coming with oil at ninety something a barrel
LS @ 53
CNN needs to say that, because what I just said was pretty much what Blitzer said on air. That’s pretty slick, trying to put in bits of misinformation like that to justify a future strike.
CNN, hyping that Israel might have to take “action”…
Impeach somebody before all of this blows up, because if it does, our country will be toast (politically and economically).
Do things seem out of control? Don’t fret. My party is coming to the rescue.
AP – Under pressure to support the troops but end the war, House Democrats said Thursday they would send President Bush $50 billion for combat operations on the condition that he begin withdrawing troops from Iraq.
this whole thing seems so staged. is martial law the new template for government?
remember back in September (2007), we heard Osama order the Islamic radicals to overthrow Pakistan’s (democratically elected) military dictatorship?
And no matter what happens, Bush will look (yes) even more incompetent.
DeafByPills @ 55
That is exactly how we ended up in Iraq. Wolfy did his part, and he’s doing it again. They lie.
We could bring democracy to Pakistan tomorrow if we wanted to, just make it clear that the next billion is only going to arrive after the election, and voila! elections next week!
It’s just not fair to blame this all on Bush, though. The Democratic leaders, most especially Ms. Clinton and Ms. Pelosi, have gone out of their way to say we need to send more troops to Afghanistan, that Bush isn’t being warlike enough over there.
Well, all those supplies go through Pakistan. If the Pakistani people had anything to say about it, they would say they don’t like having their country used as a staging area for a war on their neighbor, and they would tell us to stop. So, no democracy for Pakistan, but it’s as much a Democratic policy as a Republican one.
DeafByPills @ 55
Uhhhmmm…DBP? Where the heck have you _been_ the last few years? Why do you think so many of us are so unhappy with the MSM?
FunnyDiva
DeafByPills @ 48
I think the point is that since previous “only a year” claims have proven blatantly dishonest, and the current ones come from anonymous “US experts,” there isn’t much weight behind that “if.”
We’ve already been lied into one war. The only rational position is “extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.”
Oklahoma kiddo @ 57
OKK!
I was just wondering about you today.
FunnyD
I’m reading a little more into it. From my understanding, the “one year” figure is based on the assumption that they’re technologically further along than they actually are.
If the IAEA is the one actually there, and know what the real situation is, how come what they say isn’t reported? That’s messed up.
LS — my guess is it began under DCI Casey in 1985 (and maybe as early as 1978)
DeafByPills @ 66
It is widely reported … just not on American channels …
I’m saying don’t worry. Look at the leadership Pelosi, Reid, Lieberman, Hoyer, Feinstein and above all HRC, Rahm, Harold Ford Jr., and Obama and the DLC, among others have provided.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 69
OKK gets the snark award tonight!
Wow. What a total distortion of information. If 3,000 centrifuges worked around the clock enriching uranium, they’d have enough MATERIAL for a bomb in a year. But they conveniently don’t mention that it could still take quite awhile to build a successful device. That’s misrepresenting the facts, isn’t it?
Oklahoma kiddo @ 69
Another MT. Dew, another wet screen.
peanutbutter @ 29
“Hedging our bets” would be another.
It’s no different than large corporate PACs giving money to both Republicans and Democrats: no matter who is in charge, you want to have access.
Funnydiva2002 @ 65
just now heard that Israel is calling for El Baradei to be removed from the IAEA.
LS @ 61
LS, here’s the IAEA report(PDF file,8pages), it does mention 2,000 and a potential 600 more…
http://www.globalsecurity.org/…..060428.pdf
BlueMesa @ 70
… not so fast, the Late Nite crowd deserve consideration … *g*
DeafByPills @ 64
deafbypills… yeah that is messed up. and if some of us jumped all over your first comment, it’s only ‘cuz we’ve been yelling, screaming and finally analyzing and mocking how very messed up it is… for a few years (some for a longer time and some for less time – me, it’s been about 6 years).
my apologies and welcome.
x174 @ 75
and the reason we should listen to Israel on atomic weaponry enforcement is because…??
Petrocelli @ 77
How about the afternoon award, then? ;-)
Swopa @ 42
The Iranians are infinitely better at this sort of thing than we are. They consider Bush to be a simpleton. At the root of Persian political culture is something called “tarok”, IIRC. Bill Beeman, a linguist, is the expert on this. The meaning of tarok, IIRC, combines elements of etiquette, lying or “dissembling,” careful nuance, “white lies”, politeness, and deception. In fact, an international spy thriller could be written riffing on the Persian uses of tarok. A skillful user of tarok can do the linguistic equivalent of what Zorro could do with his rapier: Leave you thinking you’ve just won, only to look down and find your pants around your ankles. Or walking down the street with a tear in the back of your shirt that looks like a “Z”
The Pakistanis are up on this, too– but I don’t know Urdu well enough to know the cognate expression. But the Pakistani intelligence service, the ISI, is what really runs the show from behind the curtain. Bhutto might be a little rusty on her use of the Pakistani equivalent of Tarok, but Musharraf is probably immersed in it. Recall that when he talked about taking his uniform off, the person who would ascend to his military portfolio was the head of ISI.
To further the cultural smorgasbord of metaphors, there’s a lot of kabuki going on here that will have to be explained to George in words of one or two syllables. I don’t have any sources for good inside info on Pakistani politics; if anyone knows, please share.
Bob in HI
DeafByPills @ 69
If memory serves me right.. the earliest estimates place Iran at least five years away from having one bomb.
Petrocelli @ 77
OK, maybe I’m being hasty. Let’s just say he has set a mighty high standard *g*
Elliott @ 79
Because they’re not signatories to the NPT…?
selise @ 78
Yeah. The way it was presented in the article, it made it seem like they’d have an actual working bomb in a year. It’s not like they made it clear that they were just referencing to the amount of material needed for an effective bomb.
CTuttle @ 80
Um … isn’t that up to Lahoma ?!! *g*
A short clip about Pakistan, their ISI, and 9/11:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nqkRCpOMUvI
burnspbesq @ 73
nice insight on the hedging;
i’d bet that no matter what, it’ll probably blow up in Cheney’s face anyway.
Yes, I wondered at first if DBP was a concern Troll (tho the name was a good moonbat name) but apparently not. Good Luck DBP.
Eureka Springs @ 81
Heck, not knowing anything more than what’s been reported, I’ll concede that Iran is trying to build a nuclear bomb. Who can blame them? They have a right to defend themselves like anybody else. Since when does building a nuclear bomb mean that we get to go attacking them? Does anyone think that Iran would use a nuclear bomb on the United States?
DeafByPills @ 64
Welcome to the Reality-Based world, hon. MSM= Mainstream Media= bought-and-paid-for neocon propaganda clearinghouse. What the IAEA says isn’t reported because it does not support the perpetual war agenda of the Administration.
Hang around the Lake, it will be an eye-opener and a crash course in realpolitik. Front-pagers and commenters here are excellent, and the moderators do amazing work keeping this a place we can all discuss important issues. I find it works best, however, if one _asks_ for more information rather than making a blanket statement right off the bat (or right off CNN/MSNBC) and then being defensive when asked to support it. The standard of proof is pretty high here, as is the proportion of very well-informed commenters.
So, prickly as it is, I bid you welcome to the Lake and hope you’ll stay and get to know us better.
Best,
FunnyDiva
Well, it’s not like Iran can contract out to a third party for the actual manufacture of the bomb once they get the material.
Petrocelli @ 85
But, of course!
Eureka Springs @ 79
too bad long time commenter prof. foland is not still around (he was in the threads earlier today)… he would, i bet, have all the latest at his finger tips. when prof. foland isn’t around, arms control wonk is the best place i’ve found for a good analysis.
DeafByPills @ 91
They don’t have to make a stinkin’ bomb, they can just buy one…a lot less trouble.
DeafByPills @ 56
If you are making your case based on what you’ve seen on TV news, you need to understand that most of what is broadcast is outright lies.
big difference between Israel and Pakistan on nukes– Israel can deliver them.
hard to imagine that one of the UN’s first acts was the creation of Israel.
peanutbutter @ 96
Well, I kind of figured that out. Talk about twisting words around though!
DeafByPills @ 91
As long as we monitor A.Q. Khan’s whereabouts…
DeafByPills @ 69
DeafByPills:
By Jove, I think you’ve got it! That first trip Through the Looking Glass is a doozy, innit?
Again, hope you’ll stay at the Lake.
Sorry I was prickly earlier, I’m afraid I’ve forgotten what it was like to realize just how twisted the MSM/Mighty Wurlitzer really is. It’s been brave of you to go through that “aha” process out in public with your comments. I didn’t realize that until now.
Best,
FunnyDiva
DeafByPills @ 97
Yup.
May I ask about the story behind your nome de plume?
x174 @ 96
I beg to differ, Pakistan possesses approximately 24 ‘Bombs’, of which half, is assumed to be in deliverable packages, i.e. installed in ballistic missiles… I’ll look for a link…
x174 @ 73
What a transparently self-serving idea. How incredibly insulting. The man (and the team) are Nobel Peace Prize laureates, for heaven’s sake! Like they’d look the other way?? Like they’d do a half-assed job of monitoring?? Jeebus.
Love to see a link when you’ve got one.
Grrrrr.
FunnyDiva
CTuttle @ 101
Actually, I believe that those missles are targeted on India. It’s a very dangerous situation. I agree with one of the earlier commenters that Pakistan is and has always been much more significant than this absurd fixation on Iran.
DeafByPills – Is an old FDL visitor. (June 2006)
x174 @ 97
You must have missed the nuclear bristling between India and Pakistan a few years ago — both of those countries not only have nukes, they also have viable delivery systems.
DeafByPills @ 82
actually, my understanding is that building a uranium based nuke is not so hard (compared to plutonium)…
this series is a year old, but it gives lots of good detail about what is required for iran to build a bomb.
i really don’t know the current status… but, there’s just no way i would believe anything from blitzer et al – ‘cuz i’m pretty sure they know less than i do. whenever i want to catch up, i go to prof. foland (who by the way will give lots of detailed info, references) or start reading other specialists (iaea counts because they’ve been right when cheney et al have been wrong) who study the matter and keep on top of developments.
Funnydiva2002 @ 100
Well, I’m not *that* new. I lurk and read mostly. I rarely ever post because I lack the ability to write as eloquently as the rest of you guys.
New post upstairs
peanutbutter @ 101
I had spinal menagitis when I was around 9 or 10 months old. I was one of the first cases where doctors figured out how to treat it I guess. They overdosed on the antibiotics (granted, it was probably in liquid form), and I lost my hearing. So it’s just a twist on words. :)
BlueMesa @ 104
I did mention it earlier, too… Here’s an old report on Pakistan’s delivery systems…
http://www.globalsecurity.org/…..irna01.htm
LS @ 86
Good one! Shows how “Byzantine” some of these things can get.
Bob in HI
DeafByPills @ 107
Ah! My mistake. Sounds like you’ve been bearing with us for quite awhile. I’m glad. Hope you’ll de-lurk more often, then. I think FDLers are pretty dang good at valuing comments regardless of the level of eloquence.
See you upstairs.
FunnyD
DeafByPills @ 108
i can’t seem to use the shift key (and my spelling and grammar are atrocious)… but i’d rather show my weaknesses than miss out on the education i get here.
it’s not a competition… we all come as we are.
DeafByPills @ 109
Got it. Dunno, that still happens today (the treatment causing deafness). Doctors don’t seem to have figured out a way around it yet.
DeafByPills @ 109
A blessing in disguise… Did it cause further havoc, besides your hearing? If you don’t mind me asking? *g*
CTuttle @ 115
No, it was just limited to my hearing mostly. Without hearing aids, I can’t hear anything. I shouldn’t even be able to talk, but somehow I can despite the severity of the loss.
Funnydiva2002 @ 103
I seem to recall that this kind of attack on El Baradei, though not necessarily from Israel, happened in the run-up to Iraq as well, more like in late 2001 to 2002. I think after the Bush people saw that they would be able to run over everyone in a line position, they just let it drop.
well, i stand corrected CTuttle et al.
Googling Pakistani nuclear forces, 2006,
[http://www.sipri.org/contents/expcon/Pakistan.pdf], i found that the Shaheen and Ghauri (Hatf series) have ranges of 2500 km (though i didn’t see any payloads given).
At http://cns.miis.edu/research/wmdme/israel.htm
they report missile delivery systems with 1500 km and 500 kg payloads for Israel, though i would question the accuracy of the published numbers.
There is also a Forbes article which describes a 2000 km range Shaheen: “Pakistan test fires long-range nuclear capable missile”
Heavy.
x174 @ 75
What restraint. Expected it during the great Iraq WMD hunt.
SunnyNobility @ 119
Heh! See Prostratedragon at #117
FunnyD
For george bush, the “Do Iran!” train left the station a good while ago. Aint gonna happen.
One JDAM dropped on them will mean the end of life as we know it. That is, oil will almost certainly go to at LEAST $150 ppb;
Which will quickly be reflected in the stock market, and in everything that has anything to do with the price of oil. Which is, basically…everything. :o)
Our military will get to find out how the Iraqi Shia will react to bush bombing the Iranian Shia…
Those 5,000-odd brits behind the wire at the Basra Airport get to find out, too…
The republicans running for office in 2008 (and, Sen. Clinton, anyone else who has unapologetically supported the invasion of Iraq)
will get to explain $5 a gallon gas (If they’re lucky) to the voters next November.
Since the Iranians, according to our own CIA, got their hands on a few dozen of those Stinger missiles that raised such havoc with Russian helicopters and aircraft in Afghanistan, it’s a safe bet to say that, with the help of the Russians, they’ve cobbled up some pretty good upgrades, and if those start coming into Iraq, the price of air support poker will go through the roof, for Centcom…
Any country which supports the attack will find out if the Iranian missles are any good, AND will have to deal with Iran long after the bush presidential library has been established in Mooseturd, Alaska.
Our navy will get to find out how well those 225 mph Russian torpedoes work.
The rest of the world, already sick of this bloody, chaotic, useless war, and in no mood to “support” it by dealing with the worldwide increase in oil prices; will, economically speaking, fall on us like a ton of bricks. Sanctions can work both ways.
I’m not worried about Israel, either. The Iranians have repeatedly said that if they’re attacked by Israel, they will consider it an attack by the United States. And why not? They wouldn’t do it without junior’s permission.
And HOW would they get there? The Turks are concluding some SERIOUS energy deals with Teheran. Those will come to a screeching halt if Ankara is crazy enough to permit Israeli overflights.
If the Kurds are that nuts, those Peshmerga units masquerading as “the Iraqi army” in and around Baghdad, will be annihilated by Sadr’s militias. Inevitably, the Sunnis will get into it, and the Smilodon will be completely out of the bag.
Saudi Arabia? (I giggle…)
That leaves…taaadaaa…directly over Iraq, and won’t it be interesting if Iraqi airspace is used to attack Iran?
THAT could bring the Maliki government out from under their desks in the green zone, instanter.
It will also mean that SCIRI, or what used to be SCIRI, and Fadhila, and the Mehdis of Al Sadr, will have one hell of a common- denominator incentive to lay aside their differences and make bush pay, pay, pay…and Iran will no longer be the least bit reticent about giving them the hardware with which to do it.
But I think the biggest cattle-prod poised 1 inch from bush’s ass, is our own pentagon. They will have to pay the immediate price for another round of insanity, and not very many of them are stupid enough to
want to take this huge risk, in order to gin up gigantic fuckup #2, for bush to enfold gigantic fuckup #1 in it. They know perfectly well that their main duty in Iraq now, is trying to cover george bush and the GOP’s asses to give them time to hand the flaming ebola-turd to the democrats and get out of Dodge.
I don’t believe they want to take on another war, on top of that.
I gather there are two major parties, neither really distinguishable from the other. None of the myriad parties has a manifesto anyone is likely to act upon. The needs of the majority are left unmet regardless of who’s in power. The leadership seems to alternate between party leaders and leaders of the military establishment. Anyone with leftist sensibilities doesn’t stand a chance of being noticed within any of the parties.
It’s sort of like the U.S., but not quite as bad, politically speaking.
Like Musharraf, Bush (& Cheney) think that they get to do anything because they are “President.”
IMPEACHMENT is increasingly important, starting with the Dark Lord Cheney… We can’t let them turn our country into a Pakistan-like “democracy.”