moneypuzzle_sm.jpg Like a lot of people, I’ve been scrambling around trying to get a handle on what’s going on in Pakistan. Here’s the latest, as reported by the New York Times today:

Gen. Pervez Musharraf told his national security council today that parliamentary elections would be held before Feb. 15 and that he would give up his military uniform before taking the oath of office for his new term as president of Pakistan.

As he made the statement, his security forces clamped down hard on the main opposition party of Benazir Bhutto, arresting as many as 500 party members last night and today, party workers and diplomats said. The arrests appeared to be an attempt to thwart a protest rally planned by Ms. Bhutto for Friday, the party workers and diplomats said.

General Musharraf, the president, did not set a specific date for parliamentary elections, and it was unclear whether the new timetable would satisfy opposition parties and Western governments, which have been demanding bluntly that he end emergency rule, step down from his post as head of the army and allow elections to go ahead as planned.

Rather than attempt to untangle the uncertainties left in the wake of Musharraf’s announcement, I think it might be more helpful to highlight the behind-the-scenes wrangling described by the Times last night:

Amid a deepening crisis in Pakistan, Bush administration officials have begun pushing Gen. Pervez Musharraf on several fronts to reverse his state of emergency, quietly making contact with other senior army generals and backing Pakistan’s opposition leader as she carries out back-channel negotiations with the general.

Military attachés from the United States and several other Western nations are discreetly contacting senior Pakistani generals and asking them to press General Musharraf to back down from the emergency decree he issued Saturday, according to Western diplomats.

Why talk to the generals? To understand this, it helps to have read Spencer Ackerman’s scoop yesterday for TPM Muckraker, in which he explained that U.S. aid to Pakistan includes more than $1 billion per year in cash to top military officials. As both Matt Yglesias and Josh Marshall allude to, this “aid” appears to be a form of walking-around money — that is, we pay off the Pakistani generals, and Musharraf gets to keep walking around.

But that’s not the only relevant conversation going on, says the NYT:

. . . General Musharraf sought to assure Mr. Bush that his power grab was temporary and that he still planned to call for elections, Pakistani and American officials said. At the same time, two aides to General Musharraf acknowledged that aides to the general and the opposition leader Benazir Bhutto were engaged in negotiations, even as her supporters clashed with police outside Parliament and she threatened larger protests on Friday.

Talks back channel are going on with her,” said Tariq Azim Khan, the government’s minister of state for information.

Ms. Bhutto’s approach dovetailed with the American effort to defuse the situation in Pakistan and avoid major unrest in the country. And it left open the possibility that she and General Musharraf could yet return to the power-sharing arrangement envisioned when she returned to Pakistan last month after eight years in exile.

. . . In a sign of the closeness between Ms. Bhutto and Washington, the opposition leader met after her news conference with the American ambassador to Pakistan, Anne W. Patterson. The perception among Pakistani analysts is that Ms. Bhutto is being guided by Washington. “She’s listening to the Americans, no one else,” said Najam Sethi, the editor in chief of The Daily Times, and a sympathizer to her cause.

Okay, so we’re talking to the generals we’ve been paying to prop up Musharraf, and we’re talking to Bhutto, the opposition leader who is no slouch in the corruption department herself. And Musharraf and Bhutto’s aides are talking to each other, even as she announces public protest rallies and he cracks down on her supporters in the streets.

If this all looks like a giant kabuki exhibition, with Pervez and Benazir staking out negotiating positions before arriving at a “resolution” lubricated with plenty of large-denomination U.S. bills… well, maybe there’s a good reason for it.

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  3. Dick Cheney Spied on the State Department–Did He Intercept Torture Whistleblower Emails?
  4. House Intelligence Committee Catches Defense Department Hiding Clandestine Operations
  5. Pakistan’s Waziristan Offensive Begins