Students of government often note something about Democracies. Democracies tend to come out of societies with widespread military service and they extend, often exactly, to the military base.
In Greek city states the people who had the vote were men who had sufficient wealth to arm themselves for war.
In Republican Rome – the same, with an additional class existing who had extra rights because they were rich enough to go to war mounted on horseback (the Equestrian class.)
In Switzerland they fought in massed pike formations and they had male suffrage.
Rome, as is often the case, is a good case study. Because what happened in Rome, decades before the loss of voting rights, was that more and more non-Romans came to serve in Rome’s army, the armies became professional (rather than being called up when needed) and city men stopped serving, except for those with political ambitions.
You can be quite sure that if the legions had still been made up of citizens born in the city of Rome, and had still been mostly people who didn’t expect to make a career of it, that Rome would not have become a dictatorship – because the military wouldn’t have backed men like Marius, Sulla, Caesar, Pompey and Augustus – their first loyalty would have been to Rome – not to their generals, their careers, and the loot from conquests.
After Rome’s collapse there came a feudal period, occasioned in part by the stirrup. Except against disciplined infantry or in very difficult terrain, cavalry was superior – but it took a lot of money to equip and train a knight (if you didn’t start training in childhood you would never be a knight.) Once trained and equipped, however, in his heyday the knight was virtually unstoppable and the equal of many, many more infantry – as well as excellent at putting down peasant rebellions. Many peasant rebellions happened in the middle ages, much more than most people are aware of. The reason they’re unaware of them is that they always got put down, even the ones that showed some success.
Gunpowder brought the end of the age of the knight – and it also, eventually, brought with it mass warfare – where God was indeed on the side with the bigger battalions. At first these armies were made up of semi-feudal levies and large mercenary forces (the Hapsburg wars often included armies that were substantially mercenary). However, over time countries came more and more to rely on regular, non-mercenary armies (mercenary armies being even more prone to mutiny and even more unwilling to risk their lives than regular ones of the time). It is not a coincidence that during this period you had the franchise being extended time and time again, outwards from the original property owners (who were enfranchised not so much because they fought but because they could loan the king money to raise armies with) to more and more of the population, eventually ending with universal male suffrage in most countries.
Which leaves the question of female suffrage open. Since women didn’t fight – why did they gain the vote? In part it’s because during war in a mass conscription society women became a significant part of the labor force. In both World War I and World War II women flooded into the factory, the office and the shop to take up the labor their menfolk could no longer do. Mass conscription warfare in the 20th century was also mass production warfare – it required a lot of materiel and so many men were drafted that women became explicitly integral to the war effort even if they weren’t riflemen – because they were creating the materiel that was used to win the war.
Which leads us to the present day. The US has universal suffrage, but it no longer has a mass conscription army, nor does it have an army explicitly designed as a cadre force for mass conscription. (For example the Canadian army was set up in such a way that it can theoretically expand in size very quickly, with every corporal becoming a sergeant; every private a corporal, and so on.) Instead the US has a relatively large standing force. A large proportion of them are non-citizens serving in exchange for citizenship (a startling similarity with Rome). They vote disproportionately for one of the two domestic political parties, they wear uniforms and lend their favour to one of the two parties and they have been overstepping the boundaries of laws that require them to remain non-partisan and non-political. The Posse Comitatus Act that made it illegal for the army to operate in the United States has recently been effectively repealed. (In Republican Rome it was illegal for anyone under arms to enter the old city.)
More than that the army is no longer a mass production army. The US army did not have the best equipment in WWII or WWI – it had the most equipment. It now has the best equipment in the world by far – fantastically expensive equipment that is produced at great profit by an industry which is so entwined with the military that it is hard to tell where one stops and where the other starts. Yet that industry, because it is theoretically not part of the military, is able to and does, lobby government directly.
The US military is also changing itself from a military designed to fight mass conventional ground wars (the Europe scenario) to a force designed to fight colonial brushfire wars and to keep open resource supply chains (most particularly, but not exclusively, oil.) In addition it is moving as fast as it can towards remote operated drones, to remove troops from combat and reduce its personnel requirements.
None of this should make those who value democracy all that sanguine about its future in the US. While all mass conscription societies aren’t democracies (the USSR, for example) few democracies aren’t societies where mass military manpower has been used. The US has been, is, and continues to move away from that model, while having a military that self-identifies with one political party, is trying to reduce its reliance on manpower, uses mercenaries and foreigners extensively and shows greater and greater restiveness at laws that restrict its ability to operate in the US or engage directly in politics. The culture of civilian control over the military has been waning as well, with an attitude throughout the ranks that those who haven’t served have no moral right to so much as criticize anything the military does, let alone tell it what to do.
Great nations, great republics – are rarely destroyed from the outside – they almost always rot from within or are destroyed by their own defenders.
In a few hundred years will historians discuss the fall of the American Republic the way they discuss that of Rome – or of Napoleon and France?
Related posts:
- Reported Military Frustration with Obama Afghanistan Review Misses That US is a Democracy
- Who Should Be Allowed to Participate in Democracy?
- Special Offer for FDL Readers: $100 Off Tickets to Personal Democracy Forum
- Sharing the Wealth: the Basis for a Fair Society
- Valuing Democracy: Iran, Iraq and the War Supplemental





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It seems you have written the first chapter of The Decline and Fall of the American Empire.
Excellent Post, Ian!
Why do societies follow this trend Nichole wrote the “Prince” centuries ago its not like this trend is unknown.
All very, very true.
You underestimate the gravity of the crisis — it may only take handfuls and decades until the historians speak this way (in other languages than English, probably, for the most part).
My edit function should still holding the letter I sent today to the AP, if it prints here I’ll take off the attached column by Tim Rutten in the LA Times that is available on Common Dreams.
Dear Editors of the Associated Press,
Today is very sad.
Yesterday, I was brutally betrayed by leaders of the political party that I have been trying to work closely with, as they approved a nominee for Attorney General who — in defiance of all the ideals we were taught when the Constitution and the Bill of Rights WERE respected as the law of the land — believes that the President has the power to disobey the law, and apparently also believes that power extends to the Presidents’ agents who break the law on his instructions.
Thus the Republic under the rule of law disappears … already severely wounded from the events of 11-22-63, 11-08-00, 12-12-00, the still unanswered questions surrounding the events of 9-11-01, and late October ‘01, when the Congress first passed laws which allowed violations of the First and Fourth Amendments, the once-proud Republic of liberty and justice and all slipped into a coma some time ago and may actually have been dead for quite a while, for all the ordinary subject of the regime may know.
Today comes the news that the dictator of Pakistan — a key satrap in the chain of American Empire, despite how little the truth that such an Empire even exists is ever published in American media — was forced by the deteriorating situation among his subject population to reverse the limited constitutional structures that been allowed to mask the reality of his power.
Since the situation in Pakistan has been a key to the increasingly desperate foreign policy debacle waged by our dictatorial rulers, this development portends, for those who have studied history, increasing breaks in the Imperial Front in Southwest Asia, which will mean even more desperate throws of the dice by our unaccountable rulers, with increasing chances of breaking the back of the Imperial Economy at home and increasing risks of a world dominated by militarily adventurous un-democratic regimes.
I have no more hope in the survival of American democracy than I have in the establishment of democracy of Pakistan. I am urging my 18-year old to study Chinese, Hindi or Russian, that he might be able to make himself useful to his future masters.
And through this whole sad tale of the destruction of the American Dream, there is one institution that I hold responsible in a high degree, right up there with the lords of evil politics themselves and the anonymous corporate whose word seems to hold such sway … the Associated Press, and the men and women who are its editors and managers.
You have always given great favor to “establishment” politicians based on their “credibility” and “electability” … while you have been in the best position to know the lies you have covered up. You have never seemed to acknowledge or understand that the perceived “credibility” and “electability” of this class of political scum that has afflicted us over the last 20-30 years IS BASED PRECISELY ON YOUR OWN ENDORSEMENT OF THESE SCUM AS “CREDIBLE” AND “ELECTABLE.”
Just to mention one specific point. You, the Associated Press, continually print claims by major politicians and political organizations which your own common sense should tell are false … or at least highly questionable and/or based on highly questionable assumptions. Yet you NEVER, NEVER do the responsible journalist act of pointed out the reality-based context which gives the reader a clue that the statements need further investigation and corroboration.
Your journalistic colleague Tim Rutten does a much better job of discussing this failing of yours than I can do, and thus I take the liberty of appending his words below mine and urge you to study his words closely.
If you were truly honorably and respectable, this study would lead you to a major apology for failing the American people over the 20 years while their democratic republic was stolen from them, before you resigned your positions.
Sincerely,
Ron
(full address details in original)
Rome fell when the Republic was lost.
Modern communications and transportation accelerate the timing of historical change.
Where are we on the sliding scale from Republic to Empire?
Great post Ian.
The notion that the American military would not fire upon the citizens; thereby, providing a little bit of reassurance, goes up in smoke with the replacement of soldiers with mercenaries by the private armies comprised of unemotionally-involved foreigners, who are operating within our very own country.
Then, when you add in Blackwater and crew, who now have their own private intelligence company, and who are loyal to a particular doctrine identified as belonging to one particular party…we’ve got trouble in River City for sure.
egregious @ 1
who better to write the book on it?
Things Come Undone @ 3
TCU,
It’s not the societies that follow this tend, It’s the career politicians who come to see their positions as “birthright” and govern to remain in power rather than for the good of the society.
The way politic is financed now is nothing short of legal bribery.
We need a citizen military and a citizen govenment with elections financed only by citizens.
Inventor @ 5
I’d say pretty far along. Depends on how you define a colony, I guess, but with the presence of American military bases throughout the world and the power of American-based multinational corporations, I’d say you’ve got yourselves an empire.
Our government is now entirely run by corporate interests, and ya know what that means.
What democracy? Since Congress has essentially chosen to be nonexistent, we have a de facto dictatorship in the U.S.
Hope we make it to 2009 intact.
Ian, I would disagree with your underlying assumption;”…while having a military that self-identifies with one political party…“, I’ve always voted Dem during my 20 yrs, and a lot more have too! During the ‘06 elections, Military Times reported a fifty/fifty split in Party affiliations…
Pacific Coast Ron @ 4 You just described why I despise the Main Stream Media talking heads. I wish I had said that!
I hope rebellion won’t be feudal in our time (lol on my typo!)
When Congress abolished the Draft in the 1970’s, there was a preamble to the law warning that an all volunteer army could lead the nation more quickly to war and with little or no debate. It was prescient, and one of the few times Congress was right about anything.
Finding and quoting that text could be enlightening.
Elliott @ 7
Ian, you got a publisher yet?
Very interesting post. Being an old timer grew up with the draft expectation and served in the military, my concern when the draft was abolished was very close to what you express. The military I served in was largely made up of civilians doing their time. They would have never followed a coup. My primary concern, without the draft, was that the military would be increasingly isolated from the civil population, and their loyalties might, over a long period become closer to their military units and leaders than with the Constitution. I also felt that military service tended to provide a sense of duty and a stake in the welfare of the nation. I still feel some form of national service would be beneficial.
Pacific Coast Ron @ 4
wow.
Terrific post, Ian. A question about your aside re the Canadian military: it may be designed to work as a cadre force, but given the current government and their deep cultural sympathy with the logic of the Bush administration, what is to stop the same developments in Canada? We’re already hearing the same spin: criticism of an ill-conceived mission in Afghanistan means that we don’t “support the troops,” or worse, that we support the Taliban (not that the Harper government or our generals have the faintest idea who the Taliban are or even where they are).
The trouble is, that kind of sentimentalizing rhetoric is working to a degree in Canadian popular culture as well, and I don’t see the structure of the CF as any certain defence against it.
Yes.
Arca @ 8
Career Politicians, inbred nobilty divine right of kings these people always rise up and tear a society down or keep it in the dark ages. A lock on wealth, weapons and technology keeps their established order and themselves in place at the top of the heap.
Questions, inventions Change is what equalizes things but what forces produce Career Politicans, Inbred Nobles, Conservatives in the first place? Is it society, parents the environment in other words…what went wrong?
CTuttle @ 12
What were the numbers in 00, 02 and 04? Or 98 and 96?
It’s less important which party they go for than that the army is playing games politically in a very open and clear fashion.
Acra@8 I do agree with your solutions I just want to understand the cause of the problem.
skdadl @ 19
I don’t see there being much danger in Canada at this point. The Canadian military is far too small and the jingoistic impulse far too weak. That can, of course, change over time. Nonetheless my worry for Canada has a lot more to do with having important resources, a weak military and a long border with a state which has proved itself willing to invade other countries to get those resources and a population which is very easy to whip into war-making frenzies.
Ian Welsh @ 24
America needs to get a grip if we are actually freaking out Canada.
Things Come Undone @ 21
Empires are very hard to sustain with draft armies and/or small armies (you can have a professional army as long as it isn’t too large and the population is economically powerful).
Note that another important thing to watch is the distribution of wealth and income. Societies with a strong middle class are much more resistant, no matter what the makeup of the military. Countries with a mob at the bottom and aristocrats at the top (or whatever you choose to call them) are very vulnerable. In late Republican Rome (note the empire fell centuries after the Republic) far too many people had been impoverished and tons of people had come in from the countryside and found no real work.
Ian Welsh @ 22
Generally, 65/35, but, the troops don’t play the games, the Civilian Leadership are the culprits!
Way back when the all volunteer army was being implemented, I was against it because it opened the way for an army loyal only to the paymaster. w and his cohort have worked so hard to insinuate the mercenaries into our society as a normal situation. The mercenaries, e.g. blackwater, have hired many, or all, non-US citizens. These mercenaries have no stake in our society or population. We know that they were at NOLA with no real supervision, we know that they have functioned as defacto commanders in Iraq, and they have operated in questionable ways while “under the supervision” of the DoS and w’s special friend condi. Did they show up at the fires in So Cal?
The history that will be written of this period in the Us may show that w and his mob were great leaders because generally history is written by the winners until some are brave enough to stray from the accepted story. Who will be the winners in our country to write our history?
TCU,
I agree with you, it’s a chicken/egg problem.
What is it? The society or does a free society just become complacent and allow those who “lust for power” take over?
Strangely, I have noted what seems to be a better understanding of our Constitution by professional military officers than by our civilian leadership. The military JAG’s have been some of the strongest proponents of justice in the face of civil disregard. A huge number of former very high ranking officers supported John Kerry and more recent retirees have criticized the Bush Administration.
A huge number of former very high ranking officers supported John Kerry. . .
really? I missed that.
Lately, I have been half serious in thinking that Congress needs to start expanding the sargeant at arms numbers and capabilities into a Roundhead Army, capable of enforcing the laws it passes.
Suppose Bush Jr. entered office with a draft already in place. I suspect we would now have far more dead and wounded Americans than Viet Nam.. I think we would be much further into a fiasco with Iranian and Pakistani people and territory, gawd only knows where or how many more innocents would be dead, wounded, etc..
The problem with private militia and other contract labor in supportive (defense action) fields is it allows our government to ignore the will of the people who are not signing up in enough numbers to do their immoral dirty work.
I am all for each citizen serving their country..as long as it’s not forced military service.
raven @ 31
I guess you did. They lined up on the stage behind him. There were seven or eight of them, including former Chiefs of Staff, like Admiral Crowe. They had all previously been apolitical.
pma @ 32
did I correct your typo?
We may very well be coming apart at the seams; Roman style. But as referenced this nation. Do we blame the would be “philosopher kings”, (George W. Bush), or the citizens? The information is out there. And it’s not hard to come by.
Eureka Springs @ 33
If there were a draft all these fuckers in college and at the mall would have a serious attitude adjustment, that’s one great lesson the pubs learned from the Nam. Relatively few people sacrificed then and it’s ten times worse now.
Elliott @ 35
time to call in the cavaliery
pma @ 30
This Maladministration and Rethug Congress has culled and promoted individuals like Baghdad Bergner and Betrayus, while simultaneously showing others, like Shinseki, the door…
Elliott @ 35
pma @ 34
That’s a huge number? Sorry. My sorry E-4 ass was on the stage with him in Atlanta but I don’t agree that a huge number of senior officers supported him. Some yes.
punaise @ 38
I’ll get my french horn
The view here is that the Greeks were concerned with principle. The Romans were enamored of control. And the Romans pimped off the Greeks.
pma @ 32
LOL.
And, yes. If the King refuses to enforce Parliament’s laws, then Parliament must enforce them itself.
Of course, taken to its logical conclusion, that means civil war. However failure to be willing to do it means despotism without a fight.
Right now if George Bush declared martial law the question would simply be this “will the military, including the National Guard, obey”.
In 2004 I would have answered the question with a resounding “yes”. Today, not sure. This is, to my mind, one of the very few good things the Iraq war has wrought, but I fear it is temporary and that the precedents set up by the current presidency and effectively being ratified in many cases by court and congress, will allow another president the opportunity.
And in that day will the answer be yea or nay, from the military?
Today in Pakistan, the President declared a “state of emergency” and took 8 supreme court justices into custody. Part of his reasoning was that the judiciary kept letting terrorism suspects loose because it believed in things like evidence and due process.
The new judiciary will understand that evidence means “what the government says” and that due process means “what the government wants”.
And the only question in my mind, is whether the miltiary will splinter when used against their own people in the northern tribal regions.
It is true that in the past the military establishment has been actively politically neutral. That is obviously no longer the case. general betrayus was interviewed on various wingnut outlets. betrayus’s aide, col. boylan has had an email exchange with Glenn Greenwald that is not exactly non-partisan. Many general officers were forced out of the Army because they were not sufficiently supportive of w. The lower level troops may be less supportive now than they were in the past, but actually rebelling is not too likely if commanded to fight US citizens within the nation’s borders.
What does happen if the WH and Congress draw swords? Say Bush is impeached and told to leave. And he doesn’t. What force knocks on the door of the WH and says out damn spot (Barney) and you, too Bush. Bush says no I won’t and calls in his Blackwater friends.
The thing that intrigues me is how few people it would really take to overthrow this country. 20,000 Blackwater blokes could do the job nicely particularly if the military is not paying attention.
Er,
“Of course, taken to its logical conclusion, that means civil law. “
should be
“Of course, taken to its logical conclusion, that means civil war.”
Blackwater is now getting into the spy business. A seamless fit perhaps.
Just a minor note to add- I graduated college 1969. Draft lottery and all that. And, at the time I felt that it was truly unfair and counterproductive that women were not subject to the draft. I felt at the time that had women been subject to the draft that there would have been many more who refused to serve, or who sought CO status. The war would have ended sooner imo.
raven @ 41
I won’t argue with you. Huge may have been an overstatment, but I’m 64 years old, have followed politics since watching the Army McCarthy hearings on television, majored in history, served as a USAF officer from 1965 to 1969, and never recall so large a number of very high ranking officers standing together to endorse a presidential candidate, and a Democrat to boot.
raven @ 37
If these kids were working in civic improvement programs now I think they would be far more politically active/aware and have a sense of ownership of their country.. They would also be here at home where protesting is possible not killing and dying needlessly without an ability to protest in the deserts of the Mid East.
Ian, in ‘04 the Posse Comitatus Act was still valid…
pma @ 50
And I’m 58, 13 months in the on the DMZ in Korea and a year in the Mekong Delta as a raggedy ass enlisted man 66-69. I’ve sorta followed this stuff too.
BearCountry @ 45
Soldiers were allowed to show up, in uniform, at Republican events and were not allowed to do so (and were punished for doing so) at Democratic events. Officers in uniform said pro Republican things, frequently. In 2000 the margin of victory for Bush was decided by illegally counted military votes. IIRC (and I was shocked at the time) soldiers in 2000 marched at Republican events.
The miltiary was very clearly onside and attempting to sway the 2000 elections. The irony is that they got what they wanted. Since then things have gotten a lot better, but it’s the fact that it occured at all that really disturbs me and indicates that fundamentally the military has changed. Don’t forget, for example, that the Air Force Academy practically forces people to become evangelicals and forces out those who disagree. Current generals, being old and having grown up at another time may have older virtures, but do the younger officer corp?
I don’t entirely know, but I do know that there is real reason to be concerned.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 48
They have been in the spy bidness for several years now. Off shore.
When I ask my pals ‘what do we need to do?’ They invariably retort, “vote them out”. And when I say what if voting doesn’t work? Silence usually ensues.
We’ve got one person arguing that the military establishment is traditionally non-partisan and another that a huge number of high ranking officers openly supported Kerry. Where’s the Norkseman?
Can you imagine what civil war would be like in this country today?
Oklahoma kiddo @ 58
With all them loonies with guns in Oklahoma!
raven @ 53
I wasn’t in Viet Nam, but I was in Yong Mun Son, Korea, approximately 40 miles south of the DMZ during the Pueblo Incident. You will recall that it was virtually simultaneous with the Tet Offensive.
At any rate, I was merely noting that so far, the threat to our democratic institutions has come from a lot of Pillsbury doughboys who think John Wayne won WWII and like to imitate him.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 36
We need to stress the lessons of history in the “Prince.” Well that and the failure of Chicago School Economics we the informed must work to spread our knowledge.
We need to ask are you better off now than when Bill was in charge.
If you were better off then, then just imagine how much better things would be with no war French style healthcare, and a tax burden paid by the rich.
Imagine how small our army would be (more savings less taxes) and how few wars we would fight then.
raven @ 59
Are you smiling when you say that?
raven @ 57
Think about how those high ranking officers become High-Ranking! This is where the Rubber-Stamp Congress and Rove have corrupted the Officer Corps…
Dancing with the Dictator
How Bush’s tight relationship with Pakistan’s Musharraf has compromised the war on terror.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/68115
Ian @24:
If I were a Canadian and wanted to ensure Canada stayed relatively free. I would be arguing very hard and pushing very hard for
1) Canada to acquire nukes.
2) A delivery system that would see to it that the said nukes could reach as far south as Florida.
Speak softly and carry a big stick to use an Americanism.
pma @ 60
Anya ha sayo (sp). Exactly coordinated with Tet. I was in a 105 outfit at the base of Charlie Block just south of Munsan at that time of the Pueblo and the Blue House Raid. We couldn’t figure out how “Joe” got across the wire until they found the tunnels, what, 6 years later. Here’s a question for an AF man. I always heard that because the shit was so intense in the Nam at Tet that there were no air assets in our “theater” with conventional weapons that could go in and support the Pueblo and that’s why we let it go? Can you confirm
Dubhaltach @ 65
I have been arguing for nukes for years, actually. Canadians don’t like the idea, but the last few years I get a lot less naked hostility to the idea.
We have sprint capacity, and we manufacture cruise missiles, so we have the tech.
Pma, Yong Son Garrison is in the heart of Seoul now, and they want it back!
The impression here is that military officers have traditionally voted Republican. Has that changed?
Oklahoma kiddo @ 62
Hell, I’ve got the Bama-LSU game, Oregon and ASU on picture in picture and I’m having a reunion with a comrade from the Land of the Morning Calm, of course I’m smiling!
Anybody have any idea when the debt will become to large and destroy our economy.
Or if China and Japan really want to keep paying? I’m guessing after China has its Olympics it will threaten to stop paying either privately or publicly unless we budge on Taiwan.
Ian at 44
Like New England?
LS @ 6
Blackwater’s Owner Has Spies for Hire
Or Rent-a-Thugs… (Re-thugs, yup.)
do i have my “F”?
shit. i registered an’ everything.
raven @ 70
Heh, Roll Tide… Raven, you remember we’ve trod the same path in Munsan…
raven @ 70
That’s not quite what I meant.
Hey all, home from the So Cal meetup… everybody was so nice and so smart and I think very representative of their online personas…
Very Cool!
neokneme @ 73
Great now I have to worry about Blackwater reading my comments! I am so going to jail!…But for a good cause!
Oklahoma kiddo @ 56
4 boxes…soap, ballot, jury, ammo
Ian Welsh @ 54
As I remember, military votes were UNDERcounted in the last presidential election and I expect they will be again, as the numbers of registered Democrats in the military continues to rise. I wrote the Carter Center about the possibility of vote-watching military votes to ensure they are not disenfranchised. Never heard back from them. Anyone up for a letter there?
(sorry for underlining, tried to eliminate, but didn’t succeed)
CTuttle @ 76
Sure do! And I’m choppin in high cotton now that my Dawgs get Auburn next week for lot’s of marbles!
Dubhaltach @ 65
Dubhaltech- I was initially knocked back by your comment, but then I thought about it. Because of some history of being the “center of the universe”, albeit a very short history, many in the US simply do not comprehend how we are viewed by others. I lived in the UK for 10 years, so I have a better feel for that than most. We are an ugly nation in many ways, when it comes down to it.
raven @ 66
I don’t know the answer to that. The only fighters I was aware of at the time the Pueblo was taken were ROKAF F-86’s at Suwon, Osan, Taegu. After it was taken to Wonson, F-102’s from Okinawa and the Phillippines, F-105’s from Viet Nam, and F-106’s from McChord (US) were rushed to Korea. There was vast confusion from various headquarters giving contradictory orders.
Ian Welsh at 5:11 pm
That is good to hear. It’s not so much the Alberta sands that your neighbours would overrun you for as for your water. So you’ve got a bit of time.
I hope your arguments carry the day.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 77
What, loonies with guns? Drive around the rolling armory they call Georgia some time!
One more try. OK. Maybe more. I’m gonna keep tryin’.
Good evening, Ian and all.
Anyone who has any question as to whether the US Army would attack US civilians should review the experience of the Bonus Marchers.
Beerfart Liberal @ 87
here’s dakine01’s help:
Go to the “Meta” box at the bottom of the far right column
Register with FDL
Wait for an e-mail from FDL with a password
Go to your Facebook Profile and copy the URL. Make sure you get the actual Profile with the long number at the end rather than just the layout.
After you get the FDL password, come back here and click on the Login link. Login to your FDL Profile, fill in the appropriate information including pasting the Facebook link info in to the appropriate box in your FDL profile.
Save profile.
You should then have the facebook icon showing when you comment.
You have to re-log in each time you restart your machine or browser.
few hundred years ? mid 2009, i’d say.
pma @ 84
Yea, I was thinking of immediate support. I know they didn’t want to send the ROKAF in, that would have lit the deal up for sure. You know we had NOTHING up on the Z. I’m talking a basic load of small arms and arty. If they had come across we were dead meat.
RonD @ 88
Dugout Doug at his best. Pick up Halbertsam’s “The Coldest Winter” it has a great recap of Anacostia Flats.
Elliott @ 25
Well, you can consider this Canadian well and thoroughly freaked out. I expect you do come after our water.
Valley Girl at 5:17 pm
Think of it as the Canadians having good hedge to ensure that they have good relations with their neighbours VG.
And as you’re over there and as it is 1:30 A.M. over here and I apologise profusely to Ian for doing this – it’s apropos last night’s discussion:
Exodus 20
Psalm 22
raven @ 86
Drive around Sacramento, Detroit, Chicago, Miami, L.A., NYC and any place else. You might find there are lots of “loonies” driving around w/guns.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 95
That was my point big fella.
The timing between it and Tet didn’t do certainly didn’t do anything to discourage the belief that Communism was a monolith and the whole threat was coordinated by Moscow and Beijing. That turned out to be false, but few people doubted it at the time.
Carter Center home page, in case anyone is inclined to request election monitoring to protect the votes of active military.
pma @ 97
How did you determine that was false? Do you mean that it was coordinated by M-B or that it was coordinated at all?
Dubhaltach @ 94
omigod Dub! I would have never suspected that you knew about lolcats! Thank you for reminding me to laugh. I forget to do that sometimes. But, it is helpful in staying sane. xooo
OT..More (Republicans?) caught in a Sears bathroom sting in FL.
link
Dubhaltach @ 65
And set ourselves up for pre-emptive invasion?
raven @ 91
Even in ‘90-’91, 2nd ID and Eighth Army was considered a mere speed bump for the DPRK into Seoul…
CTuttle @ 103
I dig, it still gives me the willies. Could you guys hear the big speaker then or had they stopped that?
We’ve got Feinstein and Schumer liking Mukasey. And then we have Kennedy, Durbin, Biden and Whitehouse who don’t. I still think Mukasey as AG will advise Bush it’s okay legally to waterboard the the whole of Iran it he wants to. Do you think there are deep divisions within the Democratic party?
RonD @ 88
Aye, MacArthur was a piece of work. However it was, in FDR’s opinion, one of the things that made the election a lock for him.
When the marchers came under FDR, he sent Eleanor, who went out to their camp, talked to them and wound up leading them in, no kidding, songs.
The line was “Hoover sent the army. Roosevelt sent his wife.”
Dubhaltach @ 85
Less than 10 years is what I am thinking.
raven @ 96
That’s good. I just knew you weren’t singling out Oklahomans.
raven @ 104
Heh, That and the humongous flag they flew, and the ROK flag on our side of Panmunjong!
Ian Welsh @ 106
She served them coffee too!
Fern @ 102
We could have them in 6 months. Just gotta make sure they don’t know till we do. Risky, but here’s the deal — North Korea was handled with kid gloves because it did have nukes. Iraq was invaded because it didn’t.
Iran will be invaded because it doesn’t too, if it comes to that.
I just, honestly, don’t believe that if resources become very scarce and Canada says “no, we’re not selling them to you because we need them ourselves”, that it is inconceivable that the US would invade.
And, in any case, good military planning means planning for your opponents capabilities, because intentions can change.
Mind you, many folks disagree with me, including one guy I know who is in Canadian intelligence.
Nonehtless, I am not willing to trust in other nations good intentions. Call it the remnants of the conservative in me.
And what of Pakistan? What to do?
CTuttle @ 12
Yupper. While the brass may vote Republican (because most of them come from rich families or got co-opted the higher they moved up the ladder), the sergeants and below are generally split fifty-fifty.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 112
Pray, and, hope their nukes are secured…
And, in any case, good military planning means planning for your opponents capabilities, because intentions can change.
I used to be anti-gun. No more. My kids prefer their grandfather’s .357 service revolver, but the Baretta is just as much fun.
Does anybody know how many countries in the world have nuclear weapons?
neokneme @ 115
Cheaper ammo too!
My understanding is that India, has nukes.
VG one of the things the Guides team does is after posting we relax by having a lolcat contest. Jihad cat is very popular :-)
Oklahoma kiddo @ 116
Five nuclear weapons states from the NPT
Soviet Union (now Russia) 5,830 / 16,000[4] 1949 (”RDS-1″)
United States 5,163 / 9,938[5] 1945 (”Trinity”)
United Kingdom 750[6] 1952 (”Hurricane”)
France 350[7] 1960 (”Gerboise Bleue”)
China 130[8] 1964 (”596″)
Other known nuclear powers
India 70-120[9] 1974 (”Smiling Buddha”)
Pakistan 30-80[10] 1998 (”Chagai-I”)
North Korea 1-10[11] 2006 (The Beginning)[12]
Undeclared nuclear weapons states
Israel 75-200[13] unknown or 1979 (See Vela Incident)
Ian Welsh @ 111
This part I definitely agree with – I Iraq really had had some truly dreadful weapon, They would have been left alone. And NK gets all kinds of goodies because they might have a bomb.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 118
Something like this:
USA
Russia
England
France
Israel
China
India
Pakistan
I can’t think of others offhand…but…
Say a nuclear war began next week, or whatever. How long would it be before it would end?
LS @ 122
Wiki List
LS @ 122
Pakistan
India
Israel
are not part of the non-proliferation treaty.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 123
End, not end – at that point it wouldn’t matter much.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 123
Bout long enough to burn a splift.
raven @ 127
I think I’d have to find me one quick.
Dubhaltach @ 119
Hello Dubhaltach! I was trying to figure out why your name seemed so familiar. The top story at the Guides right now is in Arabic, and I’m very curious about the picture (kids making peace? victory? signs). Can you tell me what it’s about?
I am so grateful for GG and visit you folks daily.
Good night all.
I support invading Venezuela. Obviously one day they will have WMD’s. It is imperative that we spread “Democracy”.
It’s the from the reconciliation workshop held in ad-Dora for children who were forced out of their homes by the death squads Laura.
Several charities have been running workshops to get them back up to speed on schooling and also to give them psychological help.
Those kids graduated from the course today.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 131
But, but, but…Cheney just said Chavez is President of Peru, so we have to invade Peru!!! He’s my hero, and he’s always right about everything!!
I remember seeing recently that there has been an intentional push by US to end non-proliferation around the world and to try to get countries to build up nuclear, in large part because it would benefit munitions deals (IMC rules again -Industrial Military Complex). (link – I can’t remember, but it was around the same time I was reading a bunch of papers put out by Aspen Institute & Neocon groups. In other words, as with so much in the Bush era, we are pushing both sides simultaneously, and the reason is largely to increase profit.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 131
Are you sure you don’t mean Peru? ;)
LS @ 133
Is that a scream. or what?
Great post Ian.
What Barry Says is apropos.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 136
I love it when that happens!!! :P
Invade Peru – you need the Anchovy oil!
Oklahoma kiddo @ 131
… and Peru, where Hugo Chavez is the leader, according to Darth Cheney.
What would you do if Bush declared marshal law in the US on election day?
Dubhaltach @ 132
Thank you. I have long wished I could be of some service regarding psychological help for the children (I test and treat children and also am a consultant to other therapists working with traumatized children). Do you know of someone I might contact, to see if there is any possible way for me to support such work?
SanderO @ 141
Storm the Bastille?
SanderO @ 141
Go to the mall, watch teevee, listen to Britney Spears’ new album. Same old same old.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 123
Well, maybe it depends on who is starting them…
‘USAF struck Syrian nuclear site’
There you have it.
I was serious raven. Imagine if they pulled a stunt like Musharef. cut the phones, the internets… and said no one can be on the streets for 48 hrs?
SanderO @ 141
Find that spliff and think about it…then, eat cookie dough…then…go the barn and find the pitchforks (to clean the horse’s stalls, of course)….find the tiki torches from the garden, and rearrange them….to another part of the garden, of course.
Valley Girl @ 135
Venezuelans. Peruvians. What the heck. They all look alike.
raven @ 143
I’d hope that is the one thing that might get people off their asses and in the streets.
neokneme @ 145
Umm, how bout full disclosure here
I am aware of no evidence, pre 2006 or so, that the military vote was anything but massively pro-republican. While it is true, in general, that it’s hard to get data, such data points as we do have are all on the Republican side.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5964655/
From 2004 as well –
http://www.lewrockwell.com/ips/lobe43.html
All they have to do is drop another tower and the sheeple will be right there with them.
Hey Dub- another question- You’ve probably seen Siun’s post: Rummy on the Run
~~On Friday Donald Rumsfeld arrived in France to give a speech – but he had to leave via a back door that went directly into the US Embassy and then quickly scampered out of the country. Why? He was afraid French prosecutors would act on an indictment brought by the Center for Constitutional Rights, the International Federation for Human Rights and several other NGOs.~~
Any news update on this? Is this being paid attention to in “Europe”?
SanderO @ 147
Might I suggest posting a serious answer to that would not be too smart?
neokneme @ 145
I told ya. Bushco is not Israel’s friend.
Apparently some burb of Denver is full of ex military officers, Tancredo’s district and it is far far right. If you have any doubt about where the brass in the military are… take a trip to Denver.
ok, somebody try to make believe this isn’t a trial balloon (think progress);
combine that with this also reported on think progress;
now LOOK
these guys have NO intention of giving up all the power they’ve aquired, they are CERTAINLY not going to give it to hillary
there is NO WAY they believe a republican can POSSIBLY win the next election
and get this, cheney GUARANTEES a republican will be in office after o8
WE ARE BEING SET UP
and pelosi BETTER GET WITH IT FAST
Thanks Ian, I stand corrected. I had a recollection that folks on overseas bases who voted for Kerry later complained that their absentee ballots were not counted…
Ian Welsh @ 152
To me this is obvious. If you are in the military and subject to going into that mess you have to at least half way believe, it’s a matter of self-preservation.
perris @ 158
Oh…come on…that is conspiracy theory stuff../s
Valley Girl @ 154
Rummy shouldn’t even be comfortable going anywhere near a French border!
In Irak Laura you would be a target because you are a foreigner therefore you would be worth a big ransom. Even dad who is there now never sleeps more than 2 nights in the one place and travels armed to the teeth and surrounded by bodyguards.
We now have a team that censors any postings or comments made on “Guides” for details that identify where team members live or where their families live.
The best way to help now is to support the Red Cross/Red Crescent they work everywhere inside Irak and out – and they have helped train a lot of people.
The other thing is that you’d need to be fairly good in Arabic. Unless of course the US starts to do the decent thing and take refugees. Then you’d be able to do a lot of good directly.
Kirk is upstairs.
raven @ 117
The .45ACP is the easiest to re-load.
FYI, new post upstairs
Steve-AR @ 165
Yea, and if you miss you can beat em do death with it!
Dubhaltach @ 163
Yes, I understand I’d be a hindrance, not a help if I were in Irak. I appreciate the rec. re: Red Crescent, and do give regularly to it. I wondered if there might be a way to be supportive via the net, or sending specific supplies or……
I wouldn’t rule out a Cheney-led coup. I’d give it a 33% chance of happening, and well before Jan 2009.
OK, full disclosure…
Cheney: ‘I frankly think a Republican will win the ‘08 election’
LS @ 156
They’re not?
Elliott @ 162
Oh wouldn’t it be lovely for him to experience Rendition!
Ian, this is telling; Nearly 30 percent of those surveyed by the Military Times declined to answer the questions or said they were independent. That is because the youth (18-25) don’t or won’t specify their liberal bent… And, this; …confined mostly to in-depth interviews of officers attending war colleges, rather than on a large sample chosen at random. Points to the fact that, the officers know who butters their toast, the War College is for Field Grades, whom are selected for promotion by Congress…
Oh believe me VG there’s a long long long long list of people who are never going to be able to leave the USA for the “European tour” and I include in that relatively junior currently serving military personnel for what they did in Irakl.
There’s a big big push over here on this. We don’t want them here, not even as tourists, and if they come they need to know life will get nasty very fast.
Rumseld AFAIK travels by right of his former office on a diplomatic passport. But then so did Pinochet. Lots of set backs – lots of them. But the principle is now established in law in a lot of EU countries.
raven @ 167
That was the plan. Fortunately, the war ended before my pop’s 1911 ran out of ammo. Still shoots good…
CTuttle @ 172
Of those who did, most specified Republican. I don’t think you can get up to 50%/50%. Could be wrong, but I tend to go with the obvious numbers unless there’s a really good reason to do othewise.
Dubhaltach @ 173
Dub- thanks for the info. But, let me be totally cynical for a moment, or perhaps to pose an obvious question- how can they be nabbed, if they are not allowed entry?
Who said anything about not allowing entry? :-)
But it’s to be more of a deterrent than anything. The biggest push is to establish a list and then to get countries with US bases on them to inform the DoS that if any of the following people are posted to those countries then they can and will be arrested.
It’ll take a while but so far it’s looking good for Portugal, Germany, Spain, Belgium, Italy.
Pushing open an unlocked door to use a metaphor.
Excellent, thought-provoking article – and on topic thread.
One thought I had while reading the article is how war gradually gets farther and farther away from the actual “enemy.” With the horse and then the gun and cannon/mortars, planes dropping bombs, and now the drones doing the work.
In addition to the fact that the ordinary citizen is no longer a citizen-soldier, you have the “abstraction” of conflict, the long-range manner of killing. So the whole thing may become more and more like a video game.
And how do you think these things will play into the mix – in terms of the “decline of the republic?” or whatever?
Dubhaltach @ 177
Dub- I guess I misread the intent of your comment “There’s a big big push over here on this. We don’t want them here, not even as tourists, and if they come they need to know life will get nasty very fast.” I thought that what you were saying was an active intent to exclude them from entry. Thus, my question about being nabbed.
Ian Welsh @ 175
I did specify a 65/35 split typically, I tried to find the 50/50 for ‘06, no luck so far, but I know I had read it…
Well ideally the US would prosecute …… mounting successful prosecutions here would be hard.
But if a magistrate issues an arrest warrant … well habeas corpus is not a legal concept in most European jurisdictions … and American law does not apply. You do NOT have the right to remain silent and if you do DO remain silent the court is entitled to draw infrerences from your silence.
It’s more to make the point – we know that there is a case to answer that you’re a criminal, and if you put yourself in our hands by coming here then you will have to answer in court for you actions.
CTuttle @ 180
Sorry, conflating you with PW’s earlier comment.
Dubhaltach @ 181
Dub- thanks for the further information. re: “Well ideally the US would prosecute”. Sigh. Unfortunately there is so much to be done here to undo the damage of BushCo, before “we” even get around to this, that I am not hopeful.
p.s. and totally OT, but did I ever mention that I have Danish heritage? I did not understand until I lived in the UK the Dane’s work during WWII. I met my great aunt and her daughter in Copenhagen. Didn’t take me long to figure out why they were so affronted when I asked if the family name might be of German origin.
No I don’t think you ever did mention. You’d have liked Erdla (my wife’s) people. Her grandad was one of the people who was a Jew smuggler. Eventually someone informed and he had to go on the run – he was caught, and there are photos of him when he came out of Neuengamme which was the concentration camp that Danish prisoners were sent to. Her father has painful memories of life in hiding until they managed to escape over the Sund into Sweden. He’s … OK … to Germans of younger generation but can’t forget or forgive the Germans of his father’s generation. There’s still quite a lot of very bitter memories especially in Jutland.
Yes – sigh about the prosecutions in the US but making even the smallest of starts is so important.
My great grandfather, Lt. Col. of the Gananoque (Ont) battery with guns aimed to the south, across the St. Lawrence, would cheer you, Ian. So would his son, who commanded a battery at the Battle of Vimy Ridge, which defined Canada as a nation. November 11, all!
Dub- thanks as ever for all that you do. And, please give my love to Erdla. I have been at FDL for a very, very long time, and so I do know a bit about what you have been through, you personally, and you as a family. All my love.
Tha nks – you know that the twins are named for my sibs?
So we will have a Dario and an Uffe running around and being wild again quite soon now :-)
In case you missed the announcement:
How She Intends To Proceed With The Matter
Dubhaltach @ 187
Oh, Dub. It must have taken some courage to name one Dario. I don’t know anything about Uffe. But, I so remember your posts about Dario. I just cannot imagine how I could have had even had a hope of beginning to cope. You are a brave spirit.
In a few hundred years will historians discuss the fall of the American Republic the way they discuss that of Rome – or of Napoleon and France?
It could well be written in the next 20 years. And the decline of Rome, took 1100 years according to Gibbon (Up through he fall of Byzanium and the end of the Holy Roman Empire). That’s one hell of a long time to “fail”, longer than the “rise” or “success”.
Change of subjcetl, to focus on root cause:
The neo-cons are correct. To maintain the backward looking view of the “mythical” US, it must win in Iraq. That requires a definition of “win”.
I suggest two definitions:
1. “Win” the oil wars. Control the oil. The backward looking definition.
2. Loose the need for oil, and “win” he oil wars. The forward looking definition.
Comments?
When we found out that it was going to be twins – Erdla said “if they’re boys” they are going to be called Dario and Uffe. It’s a good woman who can make you cry for happiness and I married her :-)
Dubhaltach @ 190
Oh, Dub! Thanks again for brightening my day. With that, I will sign off. And, no doubt you should too, as I’m sure you will have to be on twin feeding duty very very soon. xoxo.
Yes – I have about 10 minutes to get the milk ready or there will be complaints in stereo made about Dad and the low standard of service he provides – so I will say goodnight also. It was good chatting with you again – and thank you Ian for letting us go on.
*poof*
Oklahoma kiddo @ 56
November 2006, the people spoke, and Pelosi, Emmanuel, Reed and now Schumer have failed. Period.
While Congress wets its pants over the likes of Blackwater mowing down “a few locals” in Baghdad, will it even notice when Blackwater guards do the same here? After the next Katrina, the next mega-wildfire in California, the next Mississippi or Ohio River floods, the next rush from the Mexican border? Or the next GOP convention?
They are already contracting for “domestic” duties. What are they? What rules or terms of engagement apply? What is the citizenry’s recourse when things go wrong? Because they will.
Great Article
The only lesson from history is that we never learn lessons from history.
“We’ve got Feinstein and Schumer liking Mukasey.”
I’m worried about the Schumer thing because Mukasey has very close ties to Giuliani. Giuliani will use his police connections to suppress black vote in NYC to turn NY red. AG Mukasey won’t stop him. Don’t think Schumer will support Rudy, but will he flex his inside muscle in New York to block Rudy’s suppression game?
Clinton predicted that outgoing Bush-Cheney would still be able to sabotage the election. I think this is what she was talking about.
Bright side: I’m hoping Mayor Bloomberg dumped Republican Party because he knows Rudy will run dirty in NY and Bloomberg doesn’t want to back Rudy up.
earlofhuntingdon @ 194
The white cops who kept the black Katrina refugees from N.O. from crossing over the river to Gretna (St. Bernard Parish) by firing guns “over their heads” (so my beloved MSM inform me) have all been exculpated; those brown-skins tend to be looters after all.
My “internets” have been down for a few days so I only know the above due to Amy Goodman’s “Democracy Now”. Was this covered here on fdl?
LS @ 122
Possibly South Africa…they were certainly working on it.
And take a look at those that have or are considering nuclear reactors…most without any sort of protest from the Bush Administration.
Nuclear Nations
United States France Japan Russia United Kingdom South Korea Canada Germany India Ukraine Sweden People’s Republic of China Spain Belgium Taiwan Czech Republic Slovakia Switzerland Bulgaria Finland Hungary Brazil South Africa Romania Mexico Argentina Pakistan Lithuania Slovenia Netherlands Armenia
Proposed or In Process Reactors for Electricity Generation
Iran North Korea Turkey Indonesia Vietnam Egypt Israel Libya Poland
raven @ 143
Get a group of people to protect the ballot boxes and keep the polls open! Then do a very public count!
Concerning the question as to whether U.S. troops would fire on American citizens (or ‘consumers’, if you prefer), two words: Kent State.