Finally, a little relief is at hand for the vastly disparate and draconian crack cocaine sentences meted out by federal courts. New federal sentencing guidelines for crack cocaine offenses went into effect today.
Starting today, many offenders sentenced in federal court for crack will receive a sentence about 16 months less than they would have yesterday.
By way of background, through mandatory minimum sentencing laws, the Feds have punished crack crimes far more severely than those involving powder cocaine. The U.S. Sentencing Commission followed suit by enacting guidelines that matched the mandatory minimums.
A crime involving five grams of crack cocaine carries a mandatory sentence of five years in prison, and 50 grams carries a 10-year penalty. However, it takes 500 and 1,000 grams of powdered cocaine to trigger the same five and 10 year sentences.
The 100 to 1 ratio between powder and crack cocaine penalties has no rational or scientific basis. (You know you’re onto something when even Joe Biden agrees.) After years of debate and studies demonstrating this, and with statistics showing that the crack penalties resulted in great racial disparity in sentences, in May, the United States Sentencing Commission proposed dropping the penalties for crack offenses by two levels. Congress had until October 31 to oppose new guideline. It didn’t object, so the new guideline became effective today.
This is a welcome step in the right direction. But let’s be very clear. It’s not time to open the champagne. This is a relatively minor reduction and it doesn’t apply to all defendants.
There’s two remaining problems: Retroactivity and mandatory minimum sentences.
First, the Sentencing Commission must decide whether the reduction will be retroactive and apply to the 19,500 currently serving sentences for crack offenses. Its analysis of the issue is here (pdf) and iincludes the statistic that of the 19,500 inmates currently serving federal sentences for crack offenses, 86% are black, 8% are hispanic and 6% are white.
In other words, Blacks serve far longer sentences than whites for a comparable offense regarding substances that are chemically identical. With 19,500 inmates still in prison serving these disparate sentences, retroactivity is essential for fairness.
However, even if the reduction is made retroactive, it will not result in either an automatic sentence reduction or a reduction for everyone.
The problem is that the guideline reduction doesn’t affect statutory mandatory minimum sentences. Mandatory minimums trump the guidelines. Under mandatory minimum sentences, there are only two ways a court can depart below the five or ten year sentence. The first is if the defendant has snitched. If he or she has cooperated with the government in the investigation or prosecution of others, and the government decides in its sole discretion that the cooperation warrants a lower sentence and files a motion seeking a lower sentence, courts can sentence under the mandatory minimum. The second way is through what’s called a “safety valve.” A safety valves allows a reduction below the mandatory minimum for defendants with minimal criminal records, if the offense did not involve a weapon and if the defendant discloses all of his involvement to the Government.
In the case of the non-cooperating defendant, one who either won’t rat out others on principle, or has no information to provide, or the defendant who doesn’t qualify for the safety valve, the Court is powerless to sentence under the mandatory minimum, no matter what the guidelines provide.
What’s needed is for Congress to revise the mandatory minimum sentence laws. Currently, there are three bills pending in the Senate and one in the House that would do so.
Today’s reduction also does nothing for those sentenced as career offenders or armed career offenders. And I won’t go into the legalese, but some defendants who were sentenced under the guidelines when they were mandatory (a period called pre-Booker, referring to the Supreme Court case that rendered the guidelines advisory only) or at a time when there were different rules regarding departures from the guidelines, could end up with higher sentences if they ask for resentencing now.
The best online resource right now for non-lawyers is Families Against Mandatory Minimums (FAMM.)
Their q and a page about the reduction is here (pdf). A copy of the new guideline is here (pdf.)
Bottom line: Let’s be positive about the change. But let’s not think our work is done. As of July, here’s where our Democratic candidates stood on the issue of mandatory minimum sentence reform.
Related posts:
- David Kris: Our Only Military Commission Convictions May be Illegal
- Let the Punishment Fit the Crime? Duke Cunningham v Dollar Bill Jefferson
- House Health Care Bill: A Death Sentence for My Fellow Breast Cancer Survivors
- Delayed Start, Immediate Opt-Out, “Nationwide Plans” Among Many Problems with Senate Health Bill
- Obama: If Private Insurers are Such Crack Businesses, How Can “Incompetent” Government Put Them Out of Business?





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Hey everyone. I have to run off to a meeting but I’d like to be around to answer any questions and discuss this. So, I’ll be back at 3:30 pm Pacific Time and hope some of you will return.
1?
TalkLeft!
Jeralyn!
Interesting article, and intersting summation of the points involved. Hadn’t considered the issue of the mandatory — three strikes and you’re out — sort of thing.
I believe CA is in the process of discussing the phasing out of that, or is actually phasing out/moderating the three strikes mindset. Let me dig for articles.
Dow -320
Welcome news, Jeralyn. Let’s hope some who suffer under these draconian sentences are provided retroactive relief as well. Thanks for coming by to post at FDL!
Are the changes regarding possession or dealing or both?
Thanks for the info. It is a change to see some good news coming from the perpetual war on drugs. Addiction to crack, and any other drug including alcohol, is an illness. Incarceration and/or the threat of incarceration does not one bit of good unless it is tied to a good mental health program. Well, and education and jobs and a living wage and free health care etc. etc.
A question if I may. If there is to be retroactivity is there going to be money and provision for access to a mental health program or are the powers that be just going to chuck 10,000 or more maladjusted and pissed off folks onto the streets with no hope and no help?
LS @ 5:
This stockmarket seesaw is quite interesting. And the dollar is tanking against most currencies right now. The price of oil is..what? 95 a barrel? Somethin’ is gonna happen. And it doesn’t bode well.
Apologies for the OT, but does anyone have word on how Jane is doing? Can’t find any updates, and can’t get her off my mind today. Hope all is well.
American Left, please note that I’m currently kicking your ass in the field of freeway semiotics:
http://freewayblogger.blogspot…..ornia.html
signs posted since Jan. 1:
FB – 1875, USA – 1364
Jeralyn, This is good news. There is a long way to go re; the whole drug charges/sentencing thing, but it is a start…. :)
OT, of course :)
This could make things interesting..
TEHRAN – Iran is studying a plan to connect the Caspian Sea to the Persian Gulf, Deputy Foreign Minister for Asia-Pacific Affairs Mehdi Safari said here on Wednesday.
http://www.turkishweekly.net/news.php?id=49948
Biodun @ 9
It’s just the Bush tax cuts finally having an effect on the non-crony citizens. Remember, soup lines form to the left.
Not to be contrarian or anything, but I’ve always been under the impression that crack cocaine is a much more dangerous drug than powder cocaine and also much more rapidly addictive. Now, I do believe that there are powers that be that want to lock up as many people of color as possible, because of the underlying racism in the country, and also as a means to provide big business, private prison owners with their “product”.
I am glad to hear that someone finally was able to get the reduction in the sentences through. That is progress in a world where everything seems to be going in the other direction. Thanks for your great post!
From Jeralyn’s link above:
Glad to see the “Do Nothing Congress” predates the last election.
LS @ 13
Not 100x more addictive.
John Cole, former Republican, commented in these threads last night that he supports decriminalization of marijuana. Although Cole’s coming at the issue from a libertarian point of view, he, like those on the left, realize that vast amounts of resources are wasted prosecuting crimes that actually shouldn’t be considered crimes.
Here’s hoping for a sane(r) drug policy in this country. Addiction of any kind, is a disease not a crime.
TexBetsy @ 15
Right. I wonder how they even try to determine that. Word in NYC, when crack started to hit the streets years ago, was that it was almost “instantly” addictive; whereas people vary greatly in their addition to powder. Also, you never know who put out that information in the first place either…
Crack cocaine is generally smoked as the preferred method of ingestion, IIRC, not ’snorted’.
The high is instantaneous and much more intense.
LS @ 17
oops…”addiction”
There’s also…crack babies.
readerOfTeaLeaves @ 10
Christy had a note on an earlier thread that Jane was being prepped for surgery and was cracking wise while waiting. No further info than that so far.
scarlet p. @ 11
Did not realize there was a competition out there for this…
“the powders that be”
LS @ 20
So let’s get treatment for young addicted women. And all addicts while we’re on the subject.
dakine01 @ 22
I’m assuming we’ll hear from Christy the minute she hears anything from the hospital.
One could also speculate that putting crack out on the streets was a helluva quick way to put a lot of people behind bars, give them super long sentences, etc.
TexBetsy @ 16
I’m curious to know how penalties for crack cocaine compare to crystal meth.
My naive perception is that they are equally addictive but one is more an urban drug while the other a suburban/rural drug.
Am I completely off base here? And no…that ain’t free base.
mc @ 16
There’s probably little hope of that until the current crop of Republic leaders are gone. It’s just too easy puff out your chest and sound tough on drugs, all the while having no intention of doing anything. On the other hand, Arnold Schwarzenegger said that marijuana “is not a drug. It`s a leaf.” Maybe there’s hope for the future.
TexBetsy @ 24
Yes!!
The other piece of all this that needs to be addressed is the large number of kids left behind (with family or social services) when their parents go to jail for 10 or 15 years on drug charges.
TexBetsy @ 31
But that’s just “acceptable collateral damage” doncha know. /s
TexBetsy @ 31
Excellent point.
dakine01 @ 31
I’m raising some of that collateral damage doncha know?
mc @ 26
LS @ 30
Second! Critical! We’ve twice lived next to those, and am guessing we do currently – sad, sad business! Excruciating for all, within and around the families involved. Affects whole neighborhoods, schools…
We need to see this sentencing rationality accompanied by treatment options and social services for the affected addicted and their families. A comprehensive, treatment- and prevention-based approach to drug use is absolutely necessary and should be a high priority for our next President. There are powerful forces arrayed against reform: private incarceration is only one of them.
Again, more work to be done to clean the Augean stables that are BushCheneyCo’s leavings.
crystal meth is a huge issue here in AZ… surrounding states have put in laws putting psudoeffedrin drugs behind the counter and the Repug legislature continues to fail to vote for that. Also large amounts are muled over the border. When NV voted the behind the counter law, Meth houses in Kingman and other AZ/CA border towns skyrocketed.
My issue is that the US has more of their citizens incarcerated than any country in the world. In AZ, 67% of prisoners are minorities. Think if that when the average white/hispanic ratio is around 75% to 25%. Not very representative.
Biodun @ 9
Stock market movements are not reliable indicators of economic trends. A recent IMF report released a couple of weeks ago indicated that the US$ is still overvalued. Recent rate cut by Bernanke suggests the US$ will fall further. Guess the Fed reasons devaluation will reduce the debt burden since US debts are denominated in US$. That may work only so long as overseas creditors keep buying Fed bonds to print more money which doesn’t seem to be the case. Result? Eventual hyperinflation.
Toby Wollin @ 23
Just between me and the 1764 people who joined into the freewayblogging yahoo groups. And another couple thou who’ve signed up seperately.
I’m still winning though.
dakine01 @ 22
Could someone please point me to info. on just wth is going on with Jane? I’m worried too, but have been out-of-touch & unable to keep up.
Thanks, some kind soul. I’d be ever so grateful!
((((Jane))))
Imagine how the prisons would empty if all drugs were legal. Prohibition NEVER works. It promotes drug use. If this country was really interested in stopping the importation of drugs it would arrange to purchase the product in the exporting countries. But that does make too much sense. It doesn’t support the military/corporate/war/prison/greed system that punishes those that do not bow down to it.
Adie @ 41
IIRC, Christy said this is Jane’s final surgery for the cancer treatment.
Edit: And I was correct in my remembering
Here in Nashville they have a “drug court” that channels persons charged with possesion (who have minimal prior criminal records) into drug treatment programs overseen by a judge instead of through the court and jail system. Of course there are always people who try to scam the system but on the whole, it seems to be working fairly well.
We’re talking about illegal drugs here.
The number of people addicted to legal drugs in this country dwarfs the number of crack, dope, meth, and heroin addicts. And so long as politicians are addicted to big pharma money that problem won’t go away too soon.
Public campaign financing anyone?
scarlet p. @ 40
Wait a minute – so FB is just you, your overhead projector and a bunch of bungee cords. The “other guys” are 1764 people who have signed up? Mmmmmm – I’m thinking some of those 1764 people are not “projecting”? Or, you are actually cloned and there are a zillion of you out there plying the bungee cords.
dakine01
Thank you! I seem to need a nanny to keep me up to speed these days, and at MY age?!? I’ll try to pipe down and lurk as much as possible. *g*
Adie @ 47
Nah, ya can’t do that. We’re all suffering from the lack of info and ageing/short term memory loss or whatever name is pertinent. :})
LS @ 21
I haven’t kept track of any real info on crack, but I think I picked up from the ether that the epidemic was pretty much over, stemming from how horrible its ravages were that it actually turned people off. At least that’s what my (now) 26 year old son told me several years ago. As for crack babies, there were horror stories in NYC about what would happen to the public school system when they reached school age, but I haven’t seen a single story on that subject since the relevant date came & went. Crack babies are truly a tragic development, but apparently one that turned out to be less problematic than original predictions, thank goodness.
mc @ 45
ding.
dakine01 @ 48
;->
All drugs should be legal and available without prescription.
dakine01 @ 47
Missed it by that much…….graphic testament to the aging thing, I guess.
retirin’ in five @ 52
Think my grandma used to call that “old timers disease”.
OT
Joe Liarman on senate floor now giving cover to Repugs on Mukasey nomination. He just finished, the t*rd.
On the other hand, coulda been those twisted martinis beforehand which brings us back on topic, sorta.
Hey! retirin’ in five Hang in there. You’re gonna love retirement! Not to make those young whipper-snappers jealous or nothin’…
But yer not ready yet. Can’t even wait till the great pontificator-pardoner in chief has his/her say before butting in wit yer comment. heh. thanks guys. needed a *g*
yellowdogD @ 56
speaking of retirement…. *blergh* I keep wishing whatever senator sits behind Liarman would dip the end of his ever-so-carefully-coifed rear-hair-wave in the inkwell. Or spray with Halloween cobwebs ‘r somethin’
katherine Graham Cracker @ 52
I read an article that convinced me that marijuana should be legal for patients who suffer AIDs, cancer etc and have anorexic type symptoms. It was a long time ago and it profiled I believe the mayor of Sanfrancisco. But I still believe there should be doctor supervision on a lot of drugs (i.e. prescription). There’s so much out there that’s completely toxic. I mean stuff thats used to treat people with severe illnesses.
crack babies myth
fetal alcohol syndrome is a more serious long term affects on children than crack
TeddySanFran @ 37
Republicans would advocate a “Christian” approach to treatment. Or the Mel Sembler (Holy Joe’s buddy) way. Even in rehab republicans see $$ signs.
mebbe crack wasn’t at fault, but i’ve known 2 – 3 kids i’d like to offer as sad, sad testimony to the importance of good pre-natal care, if nothing else.
Adie – fixed it for you:
I’ll try to [put the] pipe down and lurk as much as possible. *g*
:~)
RBG @ 28
G*d I used to live in a neighborhood where I could see the wares of the day by the color of the vials crushed into the sidewalk.
correction@65 I mean those plastic cap thingies from the vials.
Adie @ 63
When that bovine brushcutter starts pawing & snorting about the idiocy of SCHIP funds supposedly going to adults, i’d like to… um… tutor him in some meaningful way.
cow-patties at 10 paces. on yer mark. 3…, 2! HAH!
Adie @ 62
Yes! Not to mention neonatal care and all manner of parenting help for those that need/want it.
What ever happened to the crack babies
Adie @ 59
*spew*
Which is to point out that there was a time where crack was overwhelmingly available in my old not-wealthy Spanish neighborhood. If suburban kids from Greenwich wanted something they’d drive in and drive out. They weren’t deluged by it. & they certainly didn’t have these kind of neighborhood busts. Not in Greenwich. I have really hard time imagining cops pushing everyone out of the way while they get the perp in one of those grea big ol houses.
punaise @ 64
uh. never smoked…. ANYTHING! Now look what you’ve done, heh. Thanks. I have an awful time behaving meself. Sen. V. made me M.A.D. today (previous thread, late), I’ve fallen, and I can’t get up! Cleanup in aisle 31…
Naomi Wolfe(sp?) was just on Air America…now her website, http://WWW.americanfreedomcampaign.org is being flooded it seems…good!
OT..an “inside the blogs” thing: paradox signs off.
theleftcoaster
OT, but hey–
Neal Peirce gets the California Wildfire issue right. And ties the carnage to Georgia’s attitude towards water “policy.”
Fire and Water: Twin Challenges
No offense to anyone who’s on the force. But this is the kind of relationship I remember that the police managed to cultivate in the less privileged neighborhoods ca.late 80s early 90s. I think it has direct bearing on in the incarceration levels.
From the WH website,
Bush actually said this today when speaking of Mukasey:
“As a price of his confirmation, some on that committee want Judge Mukasey to take a legal position on specific techniques allegedly used to interrogate captured terrorists. As Judge Mukasey explained in a letter to committee members, he cannot do so for several reasons: First, he does not know whether certain methods of questioning are in fact used, because the program is classified — and therefore he is in no position to provide an informed opinion. He has not been read into the program, and won’t until he is confirmed and sword in — won’t be until he is confirmed and sworn in as the Attorney General. Second, he does not want an uninformed opinion to be taken by our professional interrogators in the field as placing them in legal jeopardy.” (this is cut and pasted from the website…my bold)
First of all, they are telling him what he is to say or think…secondly, the Freudian slip…is telling.
Poor Georgie is stomping his feet again. This time he calls out the bloggers: “When it comes to funding our troops, some in Washington should spend more time responding to the warnings of terrorists like Osama bin Laden and the requests of our commanders on the ground,” Bush said, “and less time responding to the demands of MoveOn.org bloggers and Code Pink protesters.” Link to full Article
All this man knows is Fear and War. I hope Congress keeps sitting on his pet funding legislation and keeps sending him SCHIP legislation so he can keep Vetoing. Maybe he will figure out that if he doesn’t compromise and work to build consensus, he will not get anything from congress. I sure hope our leaders will do this.
Hmm. The link I note Biden, Edwards, Dodd and Clinton answer this question pretty directly.
Here’s Obama’s answer
A little equivocating in my view.
He’s “sprinting” toward the likes of Stalin, Lenin, Hitler…who he referenced in his speech today, comparing Democratic leaders in Congress, to those that allowed it to happen…he’s right, but he’s discussing the wrong continent…
I think I’m scared, but I’m more pissed off.
Randi Rhodes is making the case right now on Air America.
More of George having a hissy fit:
Bush: No Attorney General if Not Mukasey
By LAURIE KELLMAN, The Associated Press
1:29 PM PDT, November 1, 2007
I wrote a letter to the Times wondering (among other things) if doing without an AG for fourteen months would actually be worse than having one that did whatever George (and his superior, Darth) wanted.
LS @ 76
I have seen and heard all of the bullshit on this I can take.
Waterboarding is illegal, it is torture and that is a fact.
No amount of screwing the pooch and trying to weasel around it is going to cut it.
Look at it this way, it is almost exactly the same thing as Keel Hauling.
Seen anyone doing that lately?
Fuck you Bush.
P J Evans @ 81
Hey George, what declared war is it that you are referring to?????
Bustednuckles @ 82
Yeah!!! I second that!!
LS @ 77
Didn’t Mukasey answer one way at 1st, then do a complete about-face after visiting the w.h. spin-factory to be re-programmed overnight? Or did I dream that?! That’s BIG! REALLY monstrous! That man should NEVER be AG. NEVER!
but chimpy isn’t really prez, and shooter is just a hunter with bad aim & attitude, and we should just go sit and fold our hands and be quiet, when we’re not shopping.
Administrative Orders…Hey Congress!!! Have you heard about this?
What are ya gonna do about it???
*Crickets*
Adie @ 85
Yeah, after he had dinner with his wife.
waterboarded on national TV (with video)
A Lesson For Mukasey: Why I Had Myself Water-Boarded
Kaj Larsen
Posted October 31, 2007
As a journalist for Current TV, a former military officer, and a student of public policy I have been involved in the debate about the War on Terror from the frontlines in Afghanistan to the policy discussions of academia. In the spring of 2006 a battle was brewing between the Bush Administration and some influential members of Congress over the use coercive interrogation techniques. The conflict over what techniques were legally and morally permissible had been a subtext of the War on Terror for years, but for the most part the debate was occurring inside of the intelligence community, the human rights community, and in small legal circles. It was outside the purview of the American public.
more
sombrerofallout @ 75
Almost gets it but misses it a little bit.
The houses burnt down in Orange County? Were mostly old houses. Silverado itself is a 100 years old. The fires — through the lack of water which as he correctly notes is drying up with the population increase, but as he fails to understand, irrespective of the location of said population other than that it’s somewhere in southern California — is leading to hotter and worse fires, which are now reaching into areas herefore not normally troubled with fires as well as the newer subdivisions everyone likes to pour such scorn on.
I just wish people would realize that part of the equation. A hundred year old house burning down is not a house that was stupidly and thoughtlessly planted in the path of a fire. This issue is more about the dearth of water and the excess of population, than it is on exactly where people build.
peanutbutter @ 89
Just a thought on this…tons of people have moved toward the “sunbelt” which consists of a lot of “desert” environments…certainly, that is a major contributor towards the “damage” done.
mui @ 76
Speaking of cops & priveleged neighborhoods. I was originally much puzzled by NYS’s Compstat. It seems it’s a plan to put cops where the crime is. Came in in the 1990s during Ghouliani, courtest of Police commish Bratton, now in LaCa. My puzzle was this: what did they do before? It doesn’t take computers to figure out where the crime is. That’s what maps & push pins used to be for. I finally figured out that they used to put cops in the good neighborhoods where there wasn’t crime, because those are where the taxes come from. Called conspicuous cops, but doesn’t do sh*t for cutting crime.
My 91: Make that NYC’s not NYS’s
IrishJim @ 78
The aforesaid brushwhacker-in-chief is THE biggest, baddest, most severe case of Amoral, Ethically Challenged, Spoiled Brat Syndrome that I have ever encountered in my entire lifetime!
Try to guess how much compromise and conciliation I am willing to expend on achieving consensus with that monster.
I shall continue expressing my views to those whom I wish to represent me in Congress, as well as those who surely don’t care about such things, but who should.
Bye gang. Gotta go try not to burn some veggieburgers, while my sweetie toils at the toobz. We share, don’tcha know. OUR kids know how. How come Bar ‘n bigG’s kid missed out on that? O.M.G. What. A. Waste.! *sniffle*
Hi everyone, thanks for the welcome. I’m just starting to go through your questions. Here’s a few:
TexBetsy at 1: Are the changes regarding possession or dealing or both?
Both.
Nomolos at 8: “If there is to be retroactivity is there going to be money andprovision for access to a mental health program or are the powers thatbe just going to chuck 10,000 or more maladjusted and pissed off folksonto the streets with no hope and no help?”
Well, the sentences will get about 16 months shorter, I don’t know how many would qualify for immediate release. Usually you get half-way housed about 6 months before release.
Hi Jeralyn, punctual return I must say!
One question,
How much of a backlog to the usual caseload do you see with this?
As to the question about the meth penalties, under the sentencing guidelines, they are between powder coke and crack. For example, (before today), at the high end, 150 kilos of coke, 15 kilos of meth and 1.5 kilos of crack have the same guideline level.
At the low end, 25 grams (under an ounce) of powder coke , 2.5 grams of meth and 250 mg (1/4 gram?)have the same guideline level.
Backlog, if you mean will the courts get inundated if the guideline is retroactive, I don’t think so. The rules allow the courts to resentence without the presence of the defendant and on their own motion. So there are lots of ways for this to happen. One would be that the courts would go through their records and just grant a two level reduction to those who are eligible and reduce the sentence by the appropriate amount.
I think many in the defense bar will object to this approach. Many crack defendants were sentenced in a mandatory guideline universe which no longer exists, and were denied any analysis of other sentencing factors that the courts must now consider under 18 usc 3553. That analysis can’t adequately be made now without the benefit of an advocate and client contribution and a new sentencing hearing. I think that’s what I would argue.
Some jurisdictions have heavier case loads and more crack cases than others. It could be a problem, no question, in some places. But they’ll find a way to cope.
eCAHNomics @ 91
Yeah I think our landlord had a hissy fit and there would be a cop posted across the street, up until certain hours. I know they had police officers undercover patrolling. But they were so obvious. None of this made a dent. It only meant the neighborhood had lines and people waiting until the officers left. It was kabuki. I’ll let you draw your own conclusions from that. I did love that neighborhood too. I am still nostalgic for the island flavor, the music, the painted palm trees, the pina colada malt drinks, the dominoes. *sigh*
Oh to answer your question eCAHNomics @91, of course New Yorks finest knew where the crime was with or without Ghouliani. I tend to think with Ghouliani, the policing priorities were really bent toward those neighborhoods being gentrified or developed and also highly commercial areas.
peanutbutter @ 89
You make three blatant errors in this response (though due to syntax, your actual position is not easily sussed out).
1. Both Fulton and Grijalva both do understand that poor land use decisions (i.e., where to build) and fire-suppression policies lead to hotter and more intense fires. NOT lack of water. When even Grijalva gets it, the issue is pretty much nailed down.
Please at least read the link before merely contradicting overwhelmingly accepted/proven ecological facts.
2. It’s not about the water. These ecosystems will burn anyway, even in times of relatively high moisture/water levels.
3. Respectfully, it’s incorrect to say ‘areas that have never burnt before’ (paraphrasing). They have indeed burnt before. And they’ll burn again. The natural history of these ecosystems include regularly occurences of fire.
4. It’s not about whether the houses are old or new. Relatively new houses have burnt in the past–and will burn in the future, and for the same reasons cited.
One more time, slowly: It is not the lack of water. It is not the actual population numbers. It’s the combination of land use (where homes are built) and misguided fire suppression policies.
Policies (land development policies and environmental policies) that contradict basic foundational ecological constraints are the root cause here. It comes down to poor decisions about ecological management (something of a contradiction here) and not wanting to face the facts or accept the inevitable consequences of those decisions.
We don’t build in 100-year floodplains, either–and the fire-cycle here is 20 to 40 years under natural conditions.
Mike Davis does a fantastic job on California urban, developmental, and natural history, and is one of the most accomplished and responsible historians anyone can come up with:
Let Malibu Burn: A political history of the Fire Coast
http://www.radicalurbantheory……uburn.html