A little over a week ago, I was startled by a headline on NewsNow* mentioning an Israeli air strike on Syria. No one seems to really know what happened. On September 6, Israel launched as many as 8 fighter jets and flew across Syria - possibly bombing ... well, something. There are rumours and hints: Syria claims Israel violated their airspace and Syrian air forces drove them off, an early report from US sources claimed that Israel had bombed a Syrian shipment of weapons to Hezbollah and Israeli reports gave nothing away but said that air force officers were looking pleased with themselves. All in all, it is quite a mystery.
Now the Washington Post and the New York Times are running with the story but once again, their reporting appears more driven by White House leaks and spin than reality. This latest version of the story claims that there are North Koreans in Syria and they are helping the Syrians to build nuclear weapons capacity.
We do know that some of the most dangerous White House cadre are making statements which increase the fear factor:
At the end of August, John Bolton wrote a hawkish OpEd in the Wall Street Journal about the current negotiations with North Korea - ending with:
Finally, we need to learn the details of North Korean nuclear cooperation with other countries. We know that both Iran and Syria have long cooperated with North Korea on ballistic missile programs, and the prospect of cooperation on nuclear matters is not far-fetched. Whether and to what extent Iran, Syria or others might be "safe havens" for North Korea's nuclear weapons development, or may have already participated with or benefited from it, must be made clear.
Then we have this report in the Jerusalem Post last week about a Washington Post report of a possible North Korean - Syrian nuclear cooperation:
The report was based on new intelligence the United States has gathered over the past six months, the bulk allegedly from Israel, which includes dramatic satellite imagery that has led some US officials to believe the facility could be used to produce material for nuclear weapons.
The new information, particularly images received in the past 30 days, has been restricted to just a few senior officials under the instructions of national security adviser Stephen J. Hadley, leaving many in the intelligence community unaware of it or uncertain of its significance, sources told the Washington Post on condition of anonymity.
And we have Condi Rice telling Fox when asked about Syria possibly building nuclear capacity:
It is our duty to take a stance on countries, and prevent the most dangerous people in the world from acquiring the most dangerous weapons in the world, and that is what we are doing everyday," Rice said during an interview on FOX News.
When Bolton, Hadley and Rice are all involved ... well, I start to worry.
Perhaps the best analysis of this mystery can be found in the quote from Joseph Cirincione, senior fellow and director for nuclear policy at the Center for American Progress, quoted on the Foreign Policy Passport blog:
The real story is how quickly the New York Times and the Washington Post snapped up the bait and ran exactly the story the officials wanted, thereby feeding a mini-media frenzy. It appears that nothing, not even a disastrous and unnecessary war, can break this Pavlovian response to an "intelligence scoop."
But most chilling may be Christiane Amanpour's CNN report:
Senior CNN correspondent Christiane Amanpour, citing Middle Eastern and Washington sources, said aircraft and possibly even ground forces, who may have directed the planes to their target, took part in the operation.
The attack left "a big hole in the desert," the report said. CNN quoted U.S. government and military sources as saying they were "happy to have Israel convey to both Syria and Iran the message that they can get in and out and strike when necessary."
Whatever happened on September 6th, I suspect we're going to be hearing more about a "nuclear" Syria to go along with the warmongering towards Iran. Somehow Randy Newman seems like the most apt soundtrack these days.
Update: " Israel boasted on Sunday it has recovered its "deterrent capability" after an air strike in Syria triggered warnings of retaliation and intense media speculation over the aim of the operation."
*NewsNow is a great resource - h/t to markfromireland for first introducing me to it.
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Good post.
Hi Siun!
I’m had trouble believing the N.Korean story last week. This administration has flip-flopped back and forth between claiming Syrian is the enemy, then Iran.
Thank you for this, Siun.
Happy Sunday Suin!
Hi Siun!
This morning on Fox News Sunday,
Robert Gates would not deny that Israel made some kind of air strike in Syria. Rough quote: “We don’t comment on other countries military actions”
Good morning all - the story is really odd given the hyper silence from Israel - which is noted each day in the Israeli press.
We are (if we haven’t already arrived) coming to the point of no return. All that’s missing is the triumphal return of Bibi. And that event is coming soon. The return of the Israeli war Messiah.
I said this earlier to OKK
I don’t understand why Syria would nuke Israel onaccaouta there’s that radiation thing, and, well, Syria is right next door.
Can’t stay long, but wanted to drop this link in.
Was Israeli Raid a Dry Run for Attack on Iran?
from CommonDreams.org by CommonDreams
The head of Israel’s airforce, Major-General Eliezer Shkedi, was visiting a base in the coastal city of Herziliya last week. For the 50-year-old general, also the head of Israel’s Iran Command, which would fight a war with Tehran if ordered, it was a morale-boosting affair, a meet-and-greet with pilots and navigators who had flown during […]
Elliott @ 9
Which way does the wind blow?
AP - Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Sunday he would recommend a veto of a Senate proposal that would give troops more rest between deployments in Iraq, branding it a dangerous “backdoor way” to draw down forces.
TexBetsy @ 11
dunno, which way?
Elliott @ 13
Haven’t been there in years. No idea.
TexBetsy @ 14
whichever way, it’d be an Ill Wind that blows
Thanks TexBetsy for adding that link … that is certainly one possibility and the US “government and military” comments quoted above sure point in that direction - as, I think, does the shut down of all info from the operation.
The two go hand in hand. Iran and Syria have a mutual defense pact. So if the US is going to hit Iran then Israel will hit Syria.
That is the end game of the neo-con fantasy.
-GSD
This claim of a North Korean-made nuclear weapons facility is ridiculous on its face. North Korea barely—if at all—detonated a single nuclear bomb, and then promptly agreed to dismantle their program.
Since the recorded yield of their explosion was so small, it seems unlikely North Korea is in a position to export their technology and expertise. I don’t think buying something as provocative as a nuclear weapons facility is going to be entered into lightly by any country, and North Korea has about as much credibility as a traveling monorail salesman.
Once again misinformation and propaganda comes from the White House and is uncritically parroted by the useless corporate media.
Hello, all.
Sure is a convenient pattern here: Oh hey, we don’t like this country! Gosh, this country must by trying to get nuclear weapons. That’s Dangerous! *stomp*
Lather, rinse, repeat.
peanutbutter @ 19
Can we just wash those countries out of our hair?
“You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows”
-Bob Dylan
There is also lots of the usual scare mongering and bad logic applied as usual.
So Syria develops one nuclear bomb and they are going to attack Israel?
Right. Israel has hundreds and the US, Israel’s staunchest ally has thousands.
So Syria will commit suicide by asking for a nuclear response?
It is all war mongering and it will work by the way.
-GSD
TexBetsy @ 20
Dunno about you, but I’ve got a big glop of administration stuck in my hair. How to wash that out? Shampoo doesn’t seem to be enough…
The first thing I did when I read that North Korea was helping Syria was laugh. It may or may not be true, but it’s just the whole “axis of evil” thingy. These people will jump on anything to scare the people.
And Mr. Lieberman has been quiet too.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 8
War & Terrorism= Faith-based initiatives.
All the plans are at the PNAC website. The plan has been to take out Iraq, Iran, Syria from the very beginning.
http://www.newamericancentury.org/ If you have never read the defense strategies at the PNAC it is worth the time.
If you have never read the document written by
Richard Perle and David and Liv Wurmser for Netanyahu http://www.iasps.org/strat1.htm
“A Clean Break;A New Strategy for Securing the Realm” You should!
Securing the Northern Border
Syria challenges Israel on Lebanese soil. An effective approach, and one with which American can sympathize, would be if Israel seized the strategic initiative along its northern borders by engaging Hizballah, Syria, and Iran, as the principal agents of aggression in Lebanon, including by:
* striking Syria’s drug-money and counterfeiting infrastructure in Lebanon, all of which focuses on Razi Qanan.
* paralleling Syria’s behavior by establishing the precedent that Syrian territory is not immune to attacks emanating from Lebanon by Israeli proxy forces.
* striking Syrian military targets in Lebanon, and should that prove insufficient, striking at select targets in Syria proper.
After watching what the US just did in Iraq and what Israel did in Lebanon it is not hard to imagine why another country in the neighborhood would want nuclear weapons. Even though the “cakewalk” zealots are able to verify any of this.
When Israel sits in the shadows of the UN Non-proliferation treaty and continues to refuse to sign onto the NPT yet demands that their neighbors abide by UN resolutions, the hypocrisy is obvious.
Israel started the arms race in the middle east and many US and Israeli defense companies profit massively
I have followed every word Joseph Cirincione has been saying and writing long before the invasion. Thank you Mr. Cirincione for bringing us the truth.
GSD @ 22
As one with some Arabic blood, I have no problem saying this, and I hope no one else does either.
But the Syrian military couldn’t find it’s ass with both hands and a flashlight, and their ability to develop or maintain ANY kind of nuclear arsenal is laughable beyond description.
From the information now in hand, it could have been anything from an attack on an actual Syrian weapons site to literally “a big hole in the desert”.
Even if the latter, the Syrians will still act mysterious about it, and the warhawks will use the mystery as proof of their claims of imminent Syrian threat.
Scott Ritter spoke here in Phoenix last spring and will be here Oct 12th again. He is a Nuclear weapons spec*alists trained by the US military. He explained the process, to produce enough fissile material to create ONE bomb they would need clean uranium ore and 3000 centrifuges.
First Iran does NOT have access to clean uncontaminated ore, they have uranium ore in Iran but it is contaminated with an element that does NOT have a way to be removed. Iran has gone through the multi-step process and put the gas into the centrifuges but because of the contamination, it destroys the centrifuges.
Those who control the sale of clean uranium ore have prevented Iran and Korea from buying it. The ore they have access is not clean and it cannot be processed.
It is all spin and fake news.
~~~ModNote: Edited for content to clear filters.~~~
I wonder if the Israeli’s ever envisioned their nation playing the role of 1930’s Italy to America’s 1930’s Germany shtick.
-GSD
US to give Jordan $78 million to combat terrorism, take in refugees
snip
The money, which will be disbursed by Sept. 30, is in addition to $454 million in economic and military aid already appropriated this fiscal year for Jordan.
TexBetsy @ 11
Mutually Assured Destruction. Did nicely for years. Just get the kids to practice ducking under their desks. Worked for me. What’s the big deal?
Various facts:
North Korea doesn’t have the “bomb”. They had one nuclear test with a plutonium device and that was a fizzle. So they can’t give it to anyone.
Syria doesn’t have a nuclear program. A nuclear program is not the kind of thing you can store in someone’s garage.
If you go the uranium route, you need big complexes to mine uranium ore, to purify it, turn it into a gas. You need technical expertise and big, complex, and tricky to use cascades to concentrate fissile material to the high levels needed for a bomb. Then you need to pop said material into a bomb casing and put it on some kind of a delivery device.
If you go the plutonium route, you need a reactor (big complex) and both the uranium (big complex) and the heavy water (big complex) to produce plutonium. You need to separate this out and then comes a really difficult feat of engineering (the one where the North Koreans failed). You need to machine the plutonium and place the right explosives and timers around to create a controlled implosion. Screw up even a little and you get what the North Koreans got a fizzle.
Whatever the Israelis were shooting at in the Syrian desert wasn’t a nuclear program, at most it was a wish of a ghost of a suggestion of a thought of one. Talk about testosterone poisoning and paranoid fantasies, the Israelis, this Administration, and John Bolton have them bad.
GSD @ 31
Goooooooooaaaaaaaalllllllll!
Joseph Cirincione
http://www.theglobalist.com/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=6
043
http://www.theglobalist.com/St.....oryId=3217
This is a grea article
Iran and Israel’s Nuclear Weapons
By Joseph Cirincione | Friday, March 11, 2005
Despite all the attention given to Iran’s nuclear moves, the other side of that equation — Israel’s nuclear weapons — usually receives scant attention.The Carnegie Endowment’s Joe Cirincione argues that Israel has a great interest in a Middle East free of nuclear weapons. He also argues that President Bush now has an opportunity to cut the Gordian knot.
Global Icons
or quite some time now, Washington officials have been pressuring the International Atomic Energy Agency to find Iran’s nuclear power program in “material breach” of its treaty obligations not to develop nuclear weapons.
No nuclear plan — yet
The tough talk against Tehran has inadvertently put on the table a program that no one in Washington wants to discuss openly — Israel’s nuclear weapons program.
Even if democratic transformations sweep the Middle East, a new Iraq and a new Iran would still want nuclear weapons as long as Israel has them.
In fact, the world does well to remember that most Middle East weapons programs began as a response to Israel’s development of nuclear weapons. That program started in the early 1950s — and had secretly yielded a bomb by 1968.
ISRAEL STARTED THE ARMS RACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Oklahoma kiddo @ 12
Oh, please veto a bill to give troops rest periods. Please. And please let us tie vulnerable GOP senators to that odious veto. Go ahead.
Bob “Slow Bleed” Gates reporting for duty.
-GSD
I wonder if it was a MOAB, as the “big hole in the desert” descriptor fits. Especially since Russia tested its Father of All Bombs less than a week later, on September 11th.
Thanks, Siun. Whatever it was, it serves the cause of peace not one bit.
Iran and enrichment
http://www.worldpublicopinion......p;lb=hmpg1
Whatever else this story is, it’s entertaining to see Israeli Air Force commanders strutting about with newfound pride after the Lebanon debacle. They have exactly the same kind ego-driven inter-service rivalry that we do. Demonstrating some relevance after failing to demonstrate that Hezbollah could be fought from the air is probably a considerable driving force behind this story.
Suin said:
When Bolton, Hadley and Rice are all involved … well, I start to worry.
My first thought was the good, the bad and the ugly, but I couldn’t label Bolton good.
More bad news from the area, and we have no reason to believe anything this Administration says!
This, on top of news now that US will build a big military base in Iraq on the border with Iran.
I just read the Vanity Fair article about the White House “bunker” and recommend it. Many insiders speaking off the record.
The man, and Cheney, are nuts. Scary nuts.
So, apparently there’s a list of what countries can have nukes and what countries can’t. Who made that list? And how did Stalin and Mao get on the “can” side of the ledger? I mean, seriously, what leader today is worse than Stalin?
I wonder if Syria’s new nuclear program, and their urgent need for fissile material, will cause the Vice President to send Joe Wilson to Niger again. /s
Meanwhile in sunny Pakistan:
Thousands of people poured into the stadium in Peshawar to attend the funeral prayers for Jan, 69, a senior leader of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam - a religious party which controls the province’s government.
Police put the figure at about 50,000.
Some mourners chanted “Death to Musharraf” - directing their anger at General Pervez Musharraf, the Pakistani president. Others chanted “Death to America”.
Anyone want to guess what will happen in Pakistan if the US bombs Iran?
-GSD
Mutually Assured Safety could work. Israel,
Pakistan, India SIGN THE NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY!
Mideast Nuclear Weapon Free Zone (MENWFZ)
http://www.fas.org/nuke/control/menwfz/index.html
cleter @ 37
That’s what I’m talking about! That’s the Webb bill, right?. If rethugs filibuster it or let it come to a vote and vote against it, its a lose-lose for Rethuglicans. Political suicide.
Kinda sucks to be a republican right now.
TexBetsy @ 10
And the B-52 Incident was Aug. 30.
It appears that the Israeli air force was engaged in a “dry run”, to check out Syrian and Iranian air defences along the “northern route Syrian variant” to bomb the Iranian nuclear facility at Natanz. see link http://web.mit.edu/ssp/Publica.....p_06-1.pdf
hackworth @ 48
The ads would fairly write themselves.
“Susan Collins* voted against giving our troops time home with their families. Susan Collins voted with George W. Bush and against our troops. Call Susan Collins and tell her to support our troops.”
Norm Coleman. Whoever.
CNN covering this right now….on This Week At War
World wide military spending.
Poor America, we need to pick up the pace.
-GSD
Lord, how I yearn for a rest from war.
Global wind patterns: how would you do, Saudi Arabia, if a nuclear bomb went off in Israel?
http://oceansjsu.com/105d/expe.....on/11.html
Israels weapons a threat to Peace
http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2002/03/00_ste
inbach_israeli-wmd.htm
Israels weapons threat to peace in the middle east
http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/STE203A.html
cleter @ 51
Yes, it is the Webb bill. I hope they tie Collins, Coleman and whomever else to the veto.
Elliott @ 6
The fact that Gates can make such a ridiculous statement - and that remark goes unquestioned - speaks volumes about American undereducation and the state of the MSM. They do not misunderestimate the ignorance of the American public.
The Pro War crowd at C-span 1 is pushing hatred, spewing lies and are not spending any time addressing the facts on the ground in Iraq.
When you listen and watch people like this it makes you understand why people around the world are terrified by Americans.
These people are filled with hatred and bigotry.
Amazing that the MSM will make it appear that these crowds are as substantial as the anti-war crowds.
Speaking of war mongering, that odious Melaine Morgan and her band of wing nuts are on C-Span right now. They are showing her pro-war rally yesterday.
what a feisty little “ally” we have over there.
Is there another country in the world that can get away with such brazen flouting of international norms?
What a travesty to see the leading (D) candidates on bended knee before the Lobby-that-is-on-trial-for-Espionage.
For example, Barack Obama, pwned.
http://www.suntimes.com/news/s.....01.article
Clinton, of course, totally pwned. (a derogatory term for ‘totally under another’s control, basically without even knowing it’)
Wouldn’t it be nice to have a political party that conducted foreign policy with our own interests in mind, rather than the interests of a deranged and paranoid rightwing faction of a foreign country?
Oklahoma kiddo @ 54
Me too. I was so excited after the last election, thinking that we could soon begin to talk about other things beside war and scandals. When we take over January 09, imagine all the things that will come to light then? This could go on for years….
The Webb bill (which occupies the moral high ground, implements sound military policy, and garners the support of military families) is the best cudgel with which to beat the GOP about their pointy heads (metaphorically). Is there any hope Democrats will use it to good effect? Will they make the GOP really filibuster it, with phone book readings through the night? Will the Preznit really veto it?
Will we ever know if our leaders don’t seize this opportunity? It could lead to a tectonic shift in public opinion.
Has Robert gates ever served in the military?
Obama’s warmongering is sickening, he’s vying with Hillary Clinton to see who can act the most hawkish.
schwifty @ 41
Exactly, the Israeli political leadership is worse than awful. It is worse even than Bush and Cheney. And I’m not talking about just Olmert but the whole spectrum of Israeli politicians. They have not had a single thought among them original or otherwise in 40 years.
It was an Air Force man Dan Halutz who led the fiasco in Lebanon last year. This is all about vindication and strutting to show that Israel can achieve “victories” just like it could in the good old days. Stupid, bankrupt, and pathetic.
ccmask @ 62
Commander Jesus Camper reportedly won’t leave office without having dealt with the ‘Iranian question’.
Because he’s so damn resolute.
You can see this coming from a mile down the road.
-GSD
itwasntme @ 55
Looks like not so good. OTOH, Paraguay looks like the safest place in the world. Do you see a safer place from potential nookyular fallout? I don’t.
Joe Klein’s conscience @ 60
Too bad it doesn’t say pro-war though. It says Support the Troops as opossed to the other side, not supporting the troops. If you look in the crowd, there are many eligible aged men for military service.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 64
He was in the USAF, I believe.
eldodog @ 50
Thanks for that link…wow
Oklahoma kiddo @ 64
1967-69, Air Force Strategic Air Command, per wiki.
GSD @ 67
Because the neocons know dam well that they will never find anyone in the wh who is most agreeable as Bush.
“Commander Jesus Camper” — LOL
BBAK (Be back)
ccmask @ 69
You can’t support the troops if you don’t let them rest.
Nor can you support the troops if you don’t provide them the best medical and convalescent care.
Morgan and her kind are completely full of shite.
ccmask @ 73
i wish i could be as confident as you are that none of the D or R presidential candidates might consider attacking iran.
If there had been a huge explosion in an uninhabited, or unreported-upon, area, might it have been picked up by the seismic monitors that look for earthquake activity? I look at http://www.iris.edu/seismon pretty regularly (they picked up the mine explosion in Utah) and don’t recall seeing anything in that area in that time.
WASHINGTON, Sept. 15 — While scrutiny this week focused on the debate over troop strength, President Bush also used the occasion to turn up the pressure on Iran, using his speech on Thursday to stress the need to contain Iran as a major reason for the continued American presence in Iraq.
Mr. Bush’s language indicated that the debate, at least for now, might have tilted toward Mr. Cheney. By portraying the battle with Iran as one for supremacy in the Middle East, Mr. Bush turned up the language another, more bellicose, notch. “If we were to be driven out of Iraq, extremists of all strains would be emboldened,” Mr. Bush said. “Iran would benefit from the chaos and would be encouraged in its efforts to gain nuclear weapons and dominate the region.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09.....OYHFbsYPWu 1RA
TeddySanFran @ 72
Back then I am thinking that the only way to get into the AF was to sign up for four years.
GSD @ 67
‘Deciders don’t do roadmaps, baby’…
Re the B52 incident - did Cheney have a hand in countermanding established protocol like he did in standing down the the USAF on 9/11?
Are all “Deciders” megalomaniacs?
Text of a Democracy Now interview about Scott Ritter’s book, it is long but very interesting.
Target: Iran
Israel did prevent Saddam Hussein from getting nukes, didn’t they?
Iran having nukes would be bad, no?
Iran. Is that the fuse the fundies are trying to ignite?
Nobody was killed, am I right?
The more the crisis and chaos in the Middle East, the more it makes it easier to slip the oil out the back door…far less people will be looking.
Israel didn’t break any treaties by having a nuclear arsenal, correct?
I’ve been predicting a nuclear war with Iran here since last year. A couple of important deadlines - at least in my mind - have passed, probably because the military wasn’t ready or elements necessary found a way to keep from performing the mission required. But officers who have shown distaste for such an operation are probably being replaced as fast as feasible, and we’re drawing closer to the inevitable. Bush wants war with Iran before he steps down, and a non-nuclear set of attacks will not only be ineffectual, but will draw down the dwindling supplies of conventional cruise missiles and smart aerial ordinance to too low of an inventory for any possibility that might come up - like a hurried evacuation from Iraq, for instance, which would require massive conventional bombing to assure an evacuation corridor into Kuwait and/or Jordan.
If the new 2nd generation of enhanced-radiation nuclear weapons are ready, then this is going to happen very soon. They need to be able to keep the Iranians from usiing their coast militarily, and to secure the main Iranian oil assets close to the Gulf, otherwise the plan fails.
It is going to happen, folks. To quote Dr. Riki Ott who predicted that the Exxon Valdez grounding was “not a matter of if, but of when,” the evening the tanker hit Bligh Reef, I say the same on this upcoming disaster.
As to the Israelis’ role in this, I really don’t know. I even wonder whether they consulted with our DOD on the Syria raid(s) before they happened. They certainly didn’t inform the Turks, whose territory they overflew, in violation of all known military agreements between those two countries.
Constant Reader - while we don’t know precisely what the Israelis did, no one so far has assumed they dropped the big one or anything similar. I think the idea that this was a proof of concept mission demonstrating that Israel can fly over Syria (to the Turkish border where they apparently ditched some fuel canisters)and can do something (making a hole in the desert) is the point.
And the desire to keep this all hushhush adds to the worries. The floating of tales like “they were hitting Hezbollah supply lines” suggests that they don’t want a real discussion of this mission yet.
Both the Jerusalem Post and Haaretz are covering the attack pretty nonstop and are quite surprised at the level of silence around it.
BigMitch @ 86
yes. but…
1) no evidence of that
2) not as bad as expanding war in the ME
Sometimes a “demonstration” of military capability prevents war, isn’t it so?
Who designated Israel as the designated nuclear hitter in the Middle East?
Oklahoma kiddo @ 83
There’s a theory about certain personality types who need to be right, at all times…But malignant narcissism might be a closer ‘decider’ diagnosis.
May I put it this way? I trust the Iranian PM about as much as I trust Bibi.
BM
what are you trying to say? that neocon lunacy is fine if it is Israeli?
Ed*ard Teller @ 91
Is Turkey complaining?
Breaking CNN Headline News…
O J arrested
sporkovat @ 61
That espionage trial has yet to take place and if the I-lobby has its way the trial will not take place. The MSM has been happy to keep the American public in the dark in regard to the A*P*C Rosen/Franklin/Weismann investigation and the seven times delayed trial.
Larry Franklin
http://www.cicentre.com/Docume.....n_Case.htm
The indictment for the A*P*C Rosen/Weismann/Franklin investigation
http://www.globalsecurity.org/.....ug2005.htm
Israe