| Date | First | Second | Third |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20 | Edwards | Clinton | Obama |
| Jan 14 | Edwards | Obama | Clinton |
| Jan 19 | Edwards | Clinton | Obama |
| Feb 05 | Clinton | Edwards | Obama |
| Feb 09 | Clinton | Obama | Edwards |
| Mar 22 | Clinton | Edwards | Obama |
| Apr 03 | Edwards | Clinton | Obama |
| May 16 | Clinton | Edwards | Obama |
| May 20 | Edwards | Clinton | Obama |
| May 26 | Clinton | Edwards | Obama |
| Jul 30 | Clinton | Obama | Edwards |
| Aug 03 | Clinton | Edwards | Obama |
| Aug 05 | Clinton | Obama | Edwards |
The release of the new national Rasmussen poll which shows Edwards pulling into a tie with Obama for second place for the Democratic nomination has a lot of people talking, but I actually thought Chris Bowers’ analysis — which shows Obama pulling into second — had more interesting implications.
Bowers tries to factor in the “bounce” that an average candidate would receive for a first, second and third place victory in Iowa and New Hampshire. It may sound contrarian, but it makes a strange kind of sense. Nothing succeeds like success, and that’s hard to quantify but the Bowers method does sketch an interesting picture of the race:
Now, it certainly will come as news to most political journalists and close followers of the election that Edwards has almost always been in a much better position to win the nomination than Obama. However, I am quite certain that anyone following the trends in early state polls more than national polls will nod in agreement when they see this post. No matter what the national polls have said, this has always been a close, three way campaign, due to how close it is in Iowa. In fact, lately, it has become a four person race, given Richardson’s emergence in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Still, Edwards does indeed face a serious problem where, despite his frequent and extremely important advantage in Iowa, he severely lags behind Obama and Clinton in terms of news coverage. Unfortunately for Edwards and Edwards supporters, however, that disadvantage has, throughout the campaign, had very little to do with actually being in third place in the nomination campaign. If Edwards is going to break through the two-person horserace narrative, basically the only means I can see is to educate the national media on the importance of winning Iowa.
I know it’s conventional wisdom to say that the outcome is a foregone conclusion or that the race is Hillary’s to lose, but these things never do seem to play out in quite that static a fashion.
Related posts:





Spotlight








Support this site!
Subscribe to the newsletter
Advertise on Firedoglake
Send
us your tips
Make us your homepage
About Firedoglake
Advanced search

EPU’d:
Joe-Bama!
Zed 2
dos
wide stance
??
as far as I can tell the only people that want clinton to win the primary are the republicans
I don’t know even one person that prefers her over the other candidates so these polls are bizzare to me unless they are counting republicans in their poll
republicans would like no other candidate then clinton, they think they have her smoked
I personally tend to agree, i think we will have a heck of a time winning if she is the candidate
We cannot let the MSM dictate the course of this election. Norske — can I get an Amen?
perris @ 7
ditto.
perris @ 7
Me too or me either. Like I said the other day, it would be interesting to take an FDL anonymous poll.
Remember some of the pollsters are verrry suspect. They want the corporatists to win, which means Hilary, Biden or Obama.
Obama’s top contributor is ComEd and he did them a huge favor by crossing party lines to vote to help kill the Dem measure pull back the federal utility loan guarantees.
Honestly, what is it about Hillary that people like so much? I do not get it.
bg @ 11
Corporations and the Republicans like the prospect of Hillary.
I hope this holds true:
“I know it’s conventional wisdom to say that the outcome is a foregone conclusion or that the race is Hillary’s to lose, but these things never do seem to play out in quite that static a fashion.”
craig up now
“Thank you for coming OUt”.. great choice of words by Craig.
imperfect analogy: Hillary is the sword of Damocles hanging over our progressive heads.
cloud over idaho???WTF!!
juslin @ 14
Does he have toilet paper stuck to his shoe?
I will do whatever it takes to get Edwards some media love. That man needs some MSM coverage and maybe we need to start a letter writing campaign to help elucidate that point to ABC, NBC, CBS, etc… etc…
pretty discouraging that i have to continue to fight for people who aren’t smart enough to vote for kucinich.
punaise @ 1
…after much stalling.
montag @ 19
I thnk he is going to announce he is not up for re erection
bada BING
shorter craig – i dood it and it was great
Oh thank you, thank you. Larry Craig’s defiant. They said he had a stubborn streak that may make him demand to stick it out.
Please stay in the race, Larry. Please.
Hillary is Scoop Jackson. Mo Udall. Ed Muskie. She’s invincible and unstoppable until she’s stopped. When she loses Iowa, the air will start going out an alarming rate.
Bill Clinton won because he was a fresh face and a good campaigner against a weak field. Hillary is not the Bill Clinton in this race. She is the kind of Washington establishment Bill Clinton ran against.
bg @ 11
cleavage
kdh22 @ 12
Her history on the Iraq War. Her deep connections to the DLC. Her constant triangulating. Her acceptance of $1,000,000,000 from the health care industry. Comments like this: “we need to prepare for the next war”. And on and on and on.
come on out craig – it’ll be better for you – ohh he’s NOT gay… my bad….
noo you bought a cloud only over YOUR head craig!!
Elliott posted this info yesterday..
Tonight (not sure which time zone)
Tue. Aug. 28, 7:30 pm: John Edwards and Dennis Kucinich “will take part in discussions of key domestic issues before representatives of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM)”
“The event will be streamed, live, from the http://www.GOIAM.org web site.
Streaming provided by ustream.tv.”
When I look at poll numbers I think the Edwards’ numbers are about right, Hillary’s are 5% low and Obama is 10-15% inflated. I remember reading about a year ago that voters would tend to tell a pollster that they would vote for Obama because they didn’t want to sound racist. In the voting booth, however, they would never vote for an African American. I think the reverse is true for Hillary; with absolutely no evidence to back me up.
Wasn’t Joe Leiberman the leader in the polls at this point in 2003?
out out damned spot!!
He’s always been open with the press except that he won’t take any questions.
Soon to be retired, Sen. Larry Craig:”I am not gay”. But The Idaho Stateman is to blame, for his dating preferences, and that newspaper is gay.
mack @ 26
Freddie Thompson’s got that! And he’s got cleavage in more places!
Is there a banner behind Craig, ala Bush, saying, “IOKIYAR?”
perris @ 7
I think that’s wishful thinking. Pollsters actually do know what they’re doing, and unlike pundits, people who they want to hire them in the future actually do pay attention to how accurate they are. I know people who are Clinton supporters (a fair portion of my local party are, though the Deaniacs and online activists are either in the Edwards or Obama camp.)
However, it is also true that national polls are pretty meaningless as a predictor, because we don’t have a national primary. In fact, I find it mystifying that so much of the online coverage is so focused on the horse race (by which I mean ones that focus on “who’s ahead in the polls,” not ones like this that deal with how the nomination will actually happens), when the eternal complaint about the traditional media is that they focused on nothing but the horse race.
Scarborough comparing Craig to Agnew. wonderful.
ok we know in this america obama has no chance of winning the nomination – he’ll make a showing thats it…
Steve-AR @ 31
don’t forget the likely recipient of either of the men dropping out will be the other man
if hilary drops out I think the others get an even split of votes
hilary is benefitting from the anti women bigots by there being two men
What I meant was people who are polled seem to like her. Is this a beauty contest? I think the top three are equally good looking, if that is the case. They all seem charismatic, they all have a sense of humor. But her political stands on Iraq, at least, are the worst. How does that play?
What makes her the shoo in? I am sick of hearing it. I don’t understand.
RonD @ 38
a nattering gay-bob of negativity?
RonD @ 39
At least Agnew inspired a great watch.
And Romney also included this jab at Bill Clinton as he continued to talk about Craig: “I think it reminds us of Mark Foley and Bill Clinton. I think it reminds us of the fact that people who are elected to public office continue to disappoint, and they somehow think that if they vote the right way on issues of significance or they can speak a good game, that we’ll just forgive and forget.
Badwater @ 44
Perhaps Larry aspires to great crotch.
Obama is too soft on the Republican criminals..When he said that he could work with Republicans like Tom Coburn and that he was a friend..that finished Obama for me.
juslin @ 39
Neither do short people.
MSM will suppport Hillary (on the Dem side) for 1 simple reason.
Among Dems, she has the greatest potential for generating good, entertaining stories.
Such as, does Hillary, as a woman, as a mother, have what it takes to confront Iran?
And with Bill in the not-so-background, they get a two-fer.
and i dont believe all the poll results showing hrc in front – most all i speak to do not support her so where are these numbers from?
Jane Hamsher @ 25
This is going to end badly. But then, the ego of the angry, aggrieved closet queen as bold as this guy is. . . well, it’s tough for most people to appreciate.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 28
That should read one million dollars.
How tall is Hillary? Oh be still my heart. She’s kinda short isn’t she?
bg @ 42
The Republics hope that she is a shoo-in, so they’re probably promoting that idea as they dust off their anti-clinto machinery.
Steve-AR @ 46
And his support of Lieberman instead of Lamont last year was very telling.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 44
Romney probably has some tap shoes in his closet.
A member of my family received this letter from the Kucinich campaign. I have not seen any coverage of it, and it is troubling.
Short Story: Kucinich won in the online polls after the recent ABC “debate” over the favored Democratic candidates, so they pulled the poll results off their site.
***********************
The Kucinich campaign is still awaiting an official response from ABC News about the unexplained – some have charged “inexplicable” – way in which the network has handled its post-debate online coverage of Ohio Congressman and Democratic Presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich over the past few days.
Among the “outrages” that have energized tens of thousands of Kucinich supporters – and even non-supporters – thousands of whom have flooded the ABC News website and other online news sites with comments of protest:
* Congressman Kucinich was apparently deliberately cropped out of a “Politics Page” photo of the candidates.
* Sometime Monday afternoon, after Congressman Kucinich took a commanding lead in ABC’s own on-line “Who won the Democratic debate” survey, the survey was dropped from prominence on the website.
* ABC News has not officially reported the results of its online survey.
* After the results of that survey showed Congressman Kucinich winning handily, ABC News, sometime Monday afternoon, replaced the original survey with a second survey asking “Who is winning the Democratic debate?”
* During the early voting Monday afternoon and evening, U.S. Senator Barack Obama was in the lead. By sometime late Monday or early Tuesday morning, Congressman Kucinich regained the lead by a wide margin in this second survey.
* Sometime Tuesday morning, ABC News apparently dropped the second survey from prominence or killed it entirely.
* AND, as every viewer of the nationally televised Sunday Presidential forum is aware, Congressman Kucinich was not given an opportunity to answer a question from moderator George Stephanopoulos until 28 minutes into the program.
The campaign submitted objections and inquiries to ABC News representatives on Monday and Tuesday. ABC News representatives have failed to respond – or even acknowledge – those objections and inquiries.
Stayed tuned for further details.
Strength Through Peace,
Kucinich for President 2008
Steve-AR @ 31
That’s the traditional conventional wisdom, but it may not be true any more, or is likely at least to be less true than it once was. I remember reading quite a bit about how that discrepancy didn’t show up in the Harold Ford senate race last year. So while it’s a wild card, it’s by no means certain.
An interesting technique I read about once was that you could get around that problem by asking people who they thought their neighbors would vote for. That is, they would more accurately report the effects of their own racism or sexism if they could assign the responsibility to someone else.
punaise @ 43
A spirit of national sadomasochism prevails….
Eureka Springs @ 55
You can dress up a Chicago machine tool in an Armani suit, but he’s still merely a well-dressed tool.
perris @ 41
For the Dem primary vote I think you are right, in the general election..I think the 15% spread against Obama is correct. Maybe its living in the South..but racism is still a big factor.
punaise @ 42
you owe me a keyboard!
Here is where he really f’d up….he didn’t tell his wife about the arrest.
I AM NOT GAY – Craig
I AM NOT A CROOK – Nixon
scuse moy.
on the subject of pollsters
here in the Aust morloch newspaper it is reported the arrival of a
frank luntz ‘American conservative academic and pollster’
‘who will gauge the mood of swinging voters in Aust’
‘using his so-called perception analyser’
‘the luntz device is his version of the ”worm”,the people meter that registers when a word,phrase or mannerism from a politician registers a response,either good or bad, from a
voter.
any one heard of or about him?
I think the odds of Craig getting up there and saying, “Sorry. I blew it,” were always quite low.
LS @ 63
oh, i think there are lots of things he doesn’t tell his wife.
Cozumel @ 64
To paraphrase Nixon: When a Republic does it, that means it is not gay.
Pachacutec @ 65
but he thanked everybody for coming out.
Jane Hamsher @ 25
And fight those charges. Drag it out. Get a courtroom with cameras. Go on Leno. Get Foley to be a character reference. And Lindsay Graham too. Force everyone to issue an “I’m not gay” statement. Do it all. Let’s talk about this for the next 18mos.
Edwards all the way. No matter what anyone says in most states the majority of male and female Democrats will not vote to nominate Hillary or Obama. Hillary is a political campaign expert she will manipulate votes and convention delegates to get some of the states but the rest will come down Edwards. Obama will be an honorable mention along with Richardson.
Elliott @ 63
If forced to choose I’d rather be arrested for bribery than for a sex-crime.
may @ 65
Luntz is the scum floating on the Republican waste effluent pond.
Elliot:
Heh.
montag @ 72
That bad, huh?
Not surprising.
I am not gay.
The paper made me do it.
The personals….
jmba @ 20
I don’t know exactly what you had in mind, but I would suggest that the most effective would be to write letters to newspapers and to the networks about what he has done and what he is saying, not letters complaining about coverage. Or at least in a positive way; such as a letter saying “I would like to see more about this great plan Edwards is talking about…,” not “Why aren’t you covering Edwards?”, which is likely to be ignored.
Good news! One can only hope for gridlock
and then a draft Gore movement.He afterall
is the only real candidate!
kdh22 @ 74
WORSE!
kirk murphy @ 75
That liberal /sneer Idaho press.
we cant say it any other way – obama has no chance – its not that he has no experience – neither did a governor in texas in name only have any – but his color is against him…when folks go in the booth they’ll not vote for him
montag @ 72
ta!
that’s all that’s needed to know
Cozumel @ 64
Sen Craig isn’t gay. Now, the Crenis likes some male attention, sure, but that doesn’t make the Senator gay. No one could have anticipated what kind of hijinx the Crenis could get up to. Senators cannot be expected to be responsible for the contents of their pants. That’s just unreasonable.
I may be missing something here, but why is cruising for sex in a public bathroom a crime? Smack of desperation? Sure. But how about consenting adults and all that? And how many millions cruise for sex in bars every night?
Oklahoma kiddo @ 28
A historcal mistake in military thinking around the world is what has been described as “Preparing to fight the last war instead of the next war”, which is one reason, (along with surprise) why armies in the early stages of a war are often overwhelmed by new technologies. There is nothing intrinsically wrong with “planning for the next war”, as long as it is not coupled to a willingness to wage aggressive war.
Planning for the next war, on its own, is sound strategic thinking.
“I regret pleading guilty!”
Hmmm… A little late to lawyer-up now!!!
Craig’s press release highlights
withdrawal from Iraq needs to be slow, not painful
American people need to stand firm
we need to erect a good defense
Bush should stall for time
the Minneaapolis airport police suck
Then there is “effete corps of impudent knobs”.
juslin @ 81
Is that true for Romney as well because of his religion?
damn craig is still insisting he’s not gay… spoken like a true repug
Great Post Jane.
I beleive Edwards is severely underestimated. I think it is important to note that Iowa is a Caucus state and building an organization is more important than getting press coverage and boosting your ratings. The person who wins the Iowa Caucus is the person who has built the most prolific organization. Edwards built a succesful organization in 2003/2004 and has consistently built upon that success.
I beleive Edwards is the most deserving Candidate. In fact he was just a Ken Blackwell away from being our Vice-President.
romney still has money andddddd white skin privilege……..
juslin @ 89
what’s that phrase – on the down-low?
We believe you Senator. Just…can you explain the part about the footsies?
epu’d
hackworth @ 204
Yes. And we really need to have Democrats start to point out that none of this was true.
may @ 66
Frank Luntz
yeah punaise or its on the DL
RonD @ 86
Problem is, the “next war” could turn into the ‘last war’. ;0)
Redshift @ 76
Kucinich is going to be on Ed Schultz radio show for three hours on September 12th.. Schultz isn’t my cup of tea but Kucinich was on the show today and was great, Edwards was on, too; but Kucinich came across better, imo.
So fans should mark their calendars!
punaise @ 93
Yup, Craig’s giving the press the straight scoop.
carolyn urban @ 93
Vitter’s wife had such a strong stand by her man moment, I was hoping to hear Mrs. Craigl’s version.
punaise @ 92
Dirty low down [Boz Skaggs]
Tweety: Craig is “a sexual deviant and a world-class hypocrite”
!!!!
oh make no mistake about it HE’S GAY
Craig’s listing a bit to the right.
I will come out of the closet at FDL and say that I think that under the DLC cover, Hillary is still the lefty Wellesley College/Yale law grad that I first met in 1981. This may be wishful thinking on my part but if she is elected I think she will be the Republicans worst nightmare. That is the most important thing for the Dem President to be; change in social policy will be driven from the Congress and that may take several more election cycles.
JPL @ 101
Might have turned out to be a somewhat limp defense….
wow.. msm is ALL over the Craig story. CNN has both a banner “breaking headline”, his picture up and a giant “Craig: I Am Not Gay” headline running. Vitter must think he’s the luckiest guy in the world.. but I guess in rethugdom gay is infinitely worse than merely being a sordid john
I want Edwards. Unfortunately, among those that I don’t consider well-informed, he’s not doing well. Not scientific, of course. But in speaking to people about politics, I can only conclude that the media has done a good job of casting him in a bad light.
carolyn urban @ 94
an picking up the paper from the public bathroom floor?
is it OCD, Larry?
maybe that’s why you like turning National Forests into clear-cuts…old trees just too messy for you, Larry?
Steve-AR @ 106
Wasn’t she working as corporate counsel for WalMart, then?
HRC as a nominee would be very discouraging. I speak with many people, all Democrats, who are supporting her candidacy. I suggest to them that they compare her record and positions with Lieberman. When they make the comparison they are surprised. Somehow Lieberman’s toxicity among Democrats has yet to rub off on HRC. Here’s hoping it will. And soon.
JPL @ 100
Oh, Mrs. Craig isn’t there with her…nevermind.
I just don’t believe Hillary is sincere anymore. She was, but her answers are not the right ones anymore. She is too much part of the Washington machine. She is probably the most powerful woman in politics today, but what will she do. Could she even get the other Democratic Members of Congress to follow if the don’t like her lead. Not likely.
jim oconnor @ 112
HRC is essentially the she-Lieberman.
Steve-AR @ 107
I think this is very likely as well. I think-I hope-that she has simply recognized that you can’t shovel out the shit if you don’t get down it, and consequently has said what she had to say.
Just passing through, and don’t know if anyone’s mentioned this? The International Association of Fire Fighters is endorsing Chris Dodd.
montag @ 111
She’s the lefty who sold us on full health coverage by writing in a place for Big Insurance, rather than going for single payer?
The one who supports extending our Imperial occupation in Iraq?
Interesting definition of “lefty” they use at Yale Law.
Their conservatives must be oligarchs like Prescott Bush and his ilk.
Oh, wait….
Badwater @ 90
I definitely think so. Amd for Hillary (as a woman), too.
The Vitter scandal has been resurrected.
Are we to conclude that HRC is not then showing us her ‘true nature’? Well… that my be true. But I’m getting more conservative in one respect. I want truth in adverising. I want to get what I’m buying.
solai @ 71
Geez I miss Lenny Bruce.
Wouldn’t mind having Lennon around either.
Hilary and Obama split the Democrat Center votes Edwards takes a majority of progressives and netroots to win in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Obamas young support is active but might not have voted before plus Iowa and New Hampshire don’t have many African Americans. Obamas support is young mind you not just African American.
Hilary’s postion on healthcare and the war will only drag her down the longer the primary season goes as more voters find out her postions.
Thus she has to place at least second in Iowa and New Hampshire the first contests before her postion on the issues drags her down.
Which I think she can do. Hilary thanks to Bill can get older African American votes, but Bill has to go out campaigning for them.
Hilary should change her postions and say all troops home now, and I support a European type healthcare plan for everybody.
Obama should go with his strength foreign policy, his statements that he would go into Pakistan if he had actionable inteligence to get Ossama where tough and directed at the heart of the problem.
The MSM’s attempt at a trick question with no right answer would you use Nuclear Weapons against Pakistan to which Obama said No was weak. Obamas answer however was fast good and establishes his toughness and foreign policy knowledge.
Still I think Edwards should win he just needs more airtime and to go further left on the war and healthcare. Edwards owns the economic populist argument he has the Lou Dobbs voter. But unlike Lou he does not appeal to hate.
Notice that except for McCain all the GOP candidates think opposing immigration will get them the Lou Dobbs voter.
The neglected homeland is the issue this campaign bringing the troops home not the morality of the war, or us losing the war, is the biggest concern.
The question is do we blame Bush, big business, banks forclosing on mortgages, while the Fed supports hedgefunds?
Or do we blame immigrants for lowering wages by taking jobs Americans don’t want? Even though its big business which hires them.
What will America choose? Edwards and the GOP are addressing the voters real concern, the GOP’s answer though is scapegoating.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 121
I’m still waiting for that big shipment of Compassionate Conservative Republican Moderate that the country bought in 2000.
So are we to say, tell us one thing, but do another? It’s okay. I would question whether this is a good foundation upon which to build trust.
FOX News watch: Anyone seen FOX put up a banner with “Democrat” by Larry Craig yet? They do it every time-maybe they’ll bat a thousand.
Bill and Hillary cut their political teeth working for Lieberman campaigns in their college days.
cleter @ 125
I expect this out of the GOP. I clearly don’t want it out of my party. ;0)
kdh22 @ 75
He’s a Republican shill who does “polling” that somehow always supports what his client wants. In 2000, the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) found that he had violated the organization’s Code He’s responsible for focus groups claiming that the elements of the “Contract for America” each had more than 60% support, though he refused to release the questions or data. He’s responsible for “Clear Skies” and “Healthy Forests” and a variety of other linguistic horrors to make conservative claptrap seem palatable. Another classic example is where he did a focus group for one of the 2000 debates and asked them if Bush did “better than they expected,” and then reported the results as “we have a clear winner.”
He is truly evil.
montag @ 111
She was lawyer at the Rose law firm from 1975-1992 doing mostly Children related law and health issues. She was on the corporate board of Wal-Mart from 1986-1991(?). I doubt she ever did any significant corporate work for anyone..and I am sure Wal-Mart has plenty of lawyers of their own.
We always speculate that Cheney/Rove blackmail people into submission. It’s becoming more and more obvious isn’t it? When Vitter spoke last week about the astounding progress in Iraq, my first thought was that they have him by the balls. Who knows how many more.
And FWIW, I think they have Justice Roberts too. They must have thanked their lucky stars that they found a closeted gay man to serve on the court.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 126
I agree with you-and I too would like to know what I’m buying. But it would be nice to get something better than I bought for once.
Edwards and Obama have time to pull ahead of Hillary as their supporters firm up. Either would make fine Presidents. But the truth is that there are many progressives who support Hillary, for all the progressive reasons. It’s just lethal to post that fact on these anti-Hillary blogs. Like in South Jersey, where it’s heavily blind fox news type hatred for Hillary too. But there plenty of people down here who, in the privacy of a polling booth , will vote for Hillary. That’s why her national polls will stay up.
I say to those sanctimonious Republicans, don’t point out the mote in my eye when you have a log in your….well….ah…..oofle.
-GSD
Hillary has accomplished a lot as Senator because of her ability to work with members across the aisle. The problem that I have is that the repubs have become so far right that there is no longer anyone to work across the aisle with. I’m not sure that she recognizes this.
RonD @ 116
I think it’s more “you can’t do shit if you don’t get elected.”
I could live with an HRC presidency, reluctantly. what I couldn’t stomach would be a gooper elected because of her.
I haven’t made up my mind about voting in this primary- but I’m surprised at how many dem friends are high on Hillary- women especially…
I think she’s doing well.
Jo-Ann @ 134
I see no support for Hilliary in the circles I travel in South Jersey.
JPL @ 134
guess that’s one reason why it’s hard for Senators to get elected President.
Steve-Ar
“Can’t do shit if ya don’t get elected”
Oughta be on the COVER of the politics 101 textbook.
punaise @ 138
right…on….the…..money
Steve-AR @ 130
I stand corrected. However, the point remains the same. She’s too comfortable with the powerful to do anything substantial for ordinary people.
That’s what we need more than anything right now–someone willing to undo what’s been done in the twenty-five years, and she’s not likely to do that hobnobbing with the Waltons and the Murdochs….
Eureka Springs @ 128
I don’t see how that would have been possible seeing how he’s only a few years older than them and he didn’t get into his first elected office in CT until 1970. If he campaigned during 1969, Bubba was at Oxford.
I know many females who like Hillary too. I also know quite a few guys who foam at the mouth whenever her name is mentioned.
And I’m talking about people who would ordinarily support a Democratic candidate.
cleter @ 124
It’s still on backorder. We can’t give you a date, but we assure you it is in production, and we’ll notify you as soon as it’s available.
Kucinich is the best candidate. He is a dark horse, but he best represents progressive values and his health care plan is the only single payer plan (cutting insurance companies out of health caRe is the best plan for our health).
Edwards has a far better chance of beating the rethug candidate in the general election than Hillary or Obama in the red (neck) or purple states.
That’s why the MSM is screwing Kucinich hard and Edwards lightly and promoting Hills and Obama at every turn.
Redneck rethugs have the best chance of winning if they can run their white guy against a black man or a woman. Recall what Karl Rove did to John McCain (fathered a black child)in South Carolina.
Racism and sexism sell big in the land of Holy Roller Churches.
think progress has the video…man he sounds flame ish doesn’t he?
Let me clarify my response in 140, I see no support for Hilliary in the primary in the circles I travel in South Jersey.
In this house we are waiting until after the primary to decide about the Democrats and HRC.
montag @ 144
Sure is interesting, though, that Bill has all her papers from those days sequestered in his presidential library until after the election is over. Talk about misuse of privacy privilege.
And she has the nerve to castigate the boy idiot for excessive secrecy?
Tweety: “Senator Craig of bathroom fame…”
I caught Kucinich on msnbc’s cancer discussion yesterday.. The man just knocked it out of the ball park parking lot.
Redshift @ 146
I don’t think I want it. Can I just have my country back?
punaise @ 138
My sentiments exactly.
Lots of people like Kucinich- (he doesn’t really do anything for me-but that’s neither here nor there)- but if you put a picture of him beside that of a snowball in hell- you get a good idea of his odds.
juslin @ 15
and down….and up….and down….and up………..
rwcole @ 157
snowball from hell
If tomorow was the general election and I voted for Hillary, it would be strictly a ‘hold my nose and vote’ situation. Very exciting… and comforting too.
james @ 143
Edwards can hold the center – he is reaching out to the progressives because… well because the party needs an identity other than Republican Lite (TM)
The center is not Republican Lite (TM).
Hillary is from the Money Party.
Obama is an OK junior Senator, but I do not think he has the strength of organization or character to go the distance.
His Senatorial campaign was virtually uncontested.
cleter @ 155
there will be a 20% restocking charge.
I think Craig failed to discuss his statement with PR people just like he failed to discuss his arrest with his lawyers. The man has got to start getting advice from professionals. I mean, really, ‘I AM NOT GAY’. The comedians are going to have a field day.
Both the DLC wing and the GOP wing of the transnational party offer ecological suicide, corporate tyranny, Gilded Age class warfare, and endless empire.
Hillary will do it with two X chromosomes – and a promise to leave Social Security alone.
While she keeps Big Insurance slurping off 30-40% of your health care funds.
Obama will do the same with an X and a Y chromosome.
The GOP wing of the transnational megacorp party will do the same, faster, with white male closet cases as the frontmen.
punaise @ 163
it’s the debt service that’ll getcha
I was out running errands, flipping through radio stations (still haven’t figured them out yet since moving), when I heard Craig start his press conference. Heard the first couple of minutes, then ran into the grocery store to get some stuff for dinner. When I came out, I caught the very end, and then heard the dulcet tones of Sean Hannity.
He had cut away from his radio show to catch the presser, and afterwards he gave more context by reading much of the Idaho newspaper article to his audience. I ran into another store, to pick up some other stuff, and came back as Sean was talking with a cop about anonymous sex at rest stops and such. Sean seemed genuinely surprised at whole thing. He cut to commercial, and then came back right before the top of the hour to close things out by saying essentially “I’m sorry, Senator. . . You say it is a misunderstanding, a plot, etc. but there’s something here that just doesn’t fit. Sorry, Senator.”
It’s a good thing I was stopped at a stoplight, or I’d have run off the road.
Thanks for sticking around, Senator!
Eureka Springs @ 161
OK. Guess I need to get that book from the bottom of one of my moving boxes.
cleter @ 116
Hillary is just about the last of the Dem front runners I would like to see. But I would vote for many a Republithug before Lieberman. Not the same in my book.
montag @ 143
I guess I am more influenced by her work in Arkansas for child welfare and health care. Both she and Bill were much more open and idealistic before the got hit by 10 years of relentless Republican slime; bought by millions Mellon-Scaife dollars. I think the derision she was hit with when she talked about the “vast right wing conspiracy” really taught her a lesson…don’t confront the enemy from weakness.
How many people here laughed at Hillary when she made the “conspiracy comment”? Even she underestimated the enemy.
In the end, I would rather have HRC appointing judges than any Republican I can think of.
Off on the business of the Queen. See everyone later.
Peterr @ 167
are you leaving the Bay Area?
Peterr @ 167
the gop is trying to get craig to resign and hanity carries their water
they are throwing him to the dogs and hannity is one of their dogs
I think for Edwards to run successfully as the labor and populist candidate, he needs to announce some bold initiative that would capture the imagination of the nation and the MSM. I believe that initiative should be a NEW WPA type program to rebuild the crumbling infrastructure. If he could get the numbers crunchers in his campain to work the cost, and can find the money by ending the war and focusing on the economy- that’s a winner.
There is a new thread. It is not gay. Not that there’s any thing wrong with that. But it’s not. Gay. The thread , I mean. It’s not gay. And neither is the senator that it’s about.
cleter @ 175
Is it tapping it’s foot?
kirk murphy @ 165
Awesome, dude!
The difference is not only found in the increase in speed of the ecological suicide, Social Security and Medicare will definitely go down in flames with another round of conservatism.
solai @ 164
He also needed to practice sounding like he’s not lying. A fairly pathetic effort.
Steve-AR @ 106
I hope she is like Abe Lincoln who argued in the Douglas/Lincoln debates that African Americans were not the white man equal however nobody deserved to be a slave if I remeber right.
This accept one part of your opponets argument thing but not all of it is an attempt to build bridges by being deceitful. I have no problem with deceit but Hilary is bad at lying unlike Bill. She can’t even sell her base on the wink nod sure I’ll keep some troops in Iraq line. Regean also was great at wink nod Welfare moms bad, which the moderates bought hook line and sinker, but the left knew was code for blacks.
Come to think about it the extereme right never bought Bill’s line either. Maybe all exteremists don’t believe the other sides lies. I think its moderates who don’t care or have no real stake in an issue who are swayed by bridge building lies precisly because they want to avoid a fight.
They see Bill or Hilary reaching out to avoid a fight. They see the other side really just wants to fight which undercuts their argument.
Hilary’s problem is that the Democrats reached out to long without getting any response. So now the majority of People are convinced they have to fight, the moderates have shrunk as a result.
Hilary needs moderate voters, uncertain about the issues, who don’t like fights. She is fighting with Bills tactics in a battlefield that is now not friendly for moderate bridge building tactics. People are informed, motivated to vote and have taken sides already. What are the issues and how do you convince people you have the best plan to further their side of an issue.
(Old Joke I heard) The Politican sees a mob does not know what they are rioting about but runs to the front of the mob saying these are my people I must lead them.
We are the mob we are leading the politicans. The establishment, MSM punditocracy, and most of all the politicans are denying this, yet every 6 months or so they move to the postion we were at 6 months ago.
I could be mistaken (there’s a first time for everything) but I seem to recall that in late 1991 and early 1992 the favorite to win the Democratic nomination was Mario Cuomo (who never decalred himself to be a candidate) and Bill Bradley was the other big contender.
The CW was that whovever was nominated would be “taking one for the team” by running against incumbent George H. W. Bush, the MOST POPULAR PRESIDENT EVER!
Oh, yeah, Bill somebody, the Governor of Arkansas, was running too.
Would a lie-detector test be helpful?
Maybe not.
In the north-central part of Iowa, HRC has a lot of support from regular Democrats including our county chair, and our state rep. Vilsack supports her, and that had an impact. But John Norris, one of the best organizers in Iowa and a candidate for IA-4 in 2000, is in the Obama campaign. Obama has a campaign office in Charles City, which no one has ever done before.
Caucuses are what our CC calls hand-to-hand combat. It’s an organizing game, played on the ground. I get a lot of emails, and a few calls from HRC’s campaign. The other campaigns call me a lot more. HRC has a lot of support here, but others are fighting hard, including Richardson, Dodd and Biden. Biden has two organizers in this area and is coming himself on Saturday. Edwards has one and his campaign bus stopped here on the 15th.
I wish Al Gore would run.
At the momnet, I’m rooting for Edwards. He’s saying the things I, as a Progressive, want to hear.
It would not be business as usual with him in the White House.
I admire Elizabeth Edwards tremendously.
Whatever happens, I hope it is close.
I don’t know what it is in the water over at OpenLeft, but Chris especially seems to be espousing some really weak-ass ideas since starting up the new place. And while they were at MyDD, he and Matt could do no wrong, as far as I was concerned.
I mean, the basic idea is sound: you DO get some bounce for winning an early primary, and that has to be balanced against the national polls. How much, though? Depends on how firm the various candidates’ support is, how much money they have to fight another day, and so forth.
People have tuned in to the campaign earlier than usual, their satisfaction with their candidates is much stronger than some other years (:cough: 2004 :cough:), and both Hillary and Obama have boatloads of money to carry them past a few early losses. Edwards is not only well behind in the national polls (as he has been since spring), but he’s well behind in the money chase too.
The idea that he’s just now slipped into third place is bunk. Even when he had a decent lead in Iowa, he still had to thread a tight needle to get to the point of competitiveness on February 5.
Money pays for organization, and an organization set up overnight in 20 states having primaries on the same day, with funds that have only just come in because you won a couple of primaries just a couple weeks ago, just isn’t likely to be as effective as a structure that’s been in place for months in the February 5 states.
That’s what Hillary’s and Obama’s money will buy you.
I feel like I’ve seen different parts of this movie before – in 1984, for instance, or in 2000. It’s not like the wide-open race of 1976, when there really was no favorite, or like 2004 when nobody really liked any of the candidates, so the Iowa outcome was persuasive, especially as Howard Dean’s campaign was crashing, burning, and leaving a vacuum.
That ain’t gonna happen to Hillary or Obama. At least not THAT soon.
Hello! (hello! hello!) From far away in the mountains! (mountains! mountains! mountains!) Some opininated opinions…
Craig is NOT gay. I believe it was TRex who last night said, “It takes balls to be a fairy”… yup – big brass ones… and it takes a lot more spine than Craig’s got to be gay at all… Craig defines a wusse (how do you spell that?!?)… He hasn’t got the courage to be gay… and he surely doesn’t have the stones to be a real fairy… Craig has engaged in homosexual behavior… but that ain’t got nothin’ to do with gay…
2nd, about Obama and who won’t vote for him… my pushing-90-year-old mother, I learned recently, has some “issues” with black people… if she hadn’t been very, very ill in a critical state, I probably wouldn’t know this at all… (and if she hadn’t been at death’s door, I’m sure we would’ve talked about it).. but in her critically weak state, she let slip words that I found shocking and that she believed that “black people had their place”… Now, my OldMother considers Oprah her friend in the afternoon… she LOVES Oprah, but she still has her “black people” thing going on… But I’ll tell you something, she likes Obama.. likes him just fine… and somewhere she believes in her own “generosity”, her own “open-mindedness”… her own “progressivism” and she will pat herself on the back and vote for Obama…
3rd case – my old man brother… who really truly, in his heart of hearts believes that there is “women’s work” and “man’s work”… now, he’s smart enough not to make those kind of statements out loud too often, but I know it’s there… and he likes Hillary! I dunno!.. he likes her and I’m pretty sure he’s voting for her…
I can’t figure it out… but I think all this race has set the whole world on its head… I believe a lot of people are going to be defying expectations…
Hi Old Coastie!
and – on another topic…
Don’t know who’s on second – but Sen. Craig’s working on third.
Anyone noticed ‘Big Al’ in the gym lately?
bg @ 54
It’s not so noticeable just now.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 122
ditto
Eureka Springs @ 128
Are you serious? Really? Wow!
Cite?
The primaries will tell the story. Right now, I gotta believe that Hillary’s numbers are high because many of those being polled are republicans. (Kind of a dirty tricks campaign tactic that also gave us Lieberman.)
I also agree with the above posters who say that John Edwards needs some press coverage. He’s not covered by the MSM because he isn’t a woman or black.
I just keep hearing how this election is ‘Hillary’s to lose.’ What they’re not saying is Hillary WILL lose it for the democratic pary. She will not win a general election!