Tomorrow at 12 noon PT/3pm ET we'll be having a chat with Tom Shaller, the controversial author of Whistling Past Dixie who successfully predicted (much to the consternation of many an overpaid pollster) the results of the 2004 election. Tom had an article in the Baltimore Sun last week that Phoenix Woman profiled, to the effect that there is no "center" any more, and politicians who are trying to capitalize on one are pissing in the dark. He argues that the Democrats need to learn what the Republicans have already internalized — they need to appeal to their base and stop trying to be all things to all people. The idea that they can enlarge the party with some "big tent" is a myth.
Predictably, Schaller's ideas are damn near heresy in Mark Penn circles. It flies in the face of what Chuck Schumer and Rahm Emmanuel were trying to dictate (with nearly disastrous results) to Democrats running in 2006 (Shhh! Don't mention the war!) and gets the hackles of people like Mudcat Saunders up, but he does have an incredible track record of successful prognostication to recommend him. Tomorrow he'll have an article in the Sun about the need for Democrats to appeal to unmarried women voters (something we've been promoting for a long time, and for which the need is quite irrefutable). This comes at the same time as a Third Way report which says that the future of the Democratic party lies with…yes, white men :
Third Way has issued a new report (PDF) arguing that Democrats won in 2006 thanks to a surge in Democratic voting among white, higher-income, male and rural voters. Washingtonpost.com's Chris Cillizza's cited the report in his online column, The Fix, but with all due respect to Cillizza, some folks may need a refresher methods course to understand how Third Way's report uses statistics to create a pre-ordained outcome.
Schaller takes apart the shoddy massaging of statistics that led them to this absurd conclusion. He is an important voice that the Wise Men of DC do not want to listen to, but these are the very people who threaten to drive the party over a cliff with alarming regularity.
Please read Schaller's brief but compelling article on the new political dromedary and let me know what you think in the comments.
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zed!
oh happy zed!
fitz me
boo!
UP – hey, on the bight side, we were both here before lolo – you deserve credit for that!
(’cause that one has eyes in the back of her monitor…:)
Christy,
Something you might wish to see and think about a slant to….
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05…..mp;emc=rss
During the Libby trial blog I got dumped on for saying Ashcroft acted as a patriot. In this day of polarization we have to remember to be civil and at least recall fondly the days when we disagreed but actually respected one another. The “Bushies” I think in general are something else, something beneath respect. However, even in their group there are some who actually believe in the law. I”m hard pressed right now to make up a “profiles in courage” list, but I think Ashcroft would be on mine. Can’t spell Carmaty without opening more windows than I want to, but he’d be on the list, too.
It is a time of extreme peril. Please seek reward for patriots, even Ashcroft. We need everyone we can get if we ever expect to get back on track.
Steve
Hear Hear…. This is Right ON… I am a precinct committee person in AZ, I have true blue Democrats in my precinct who did not vote for Kerry because he did not come out against the war in 2004.
The libertarians are also very anti-war and would of joined in voting against Bush if we had a candidate who made a strong position.
I absolutely detest “Third Way” and the DLC!!! And those that are plugged into this way of thinking. And acting.
kirk murphy @ 5
Is lolo OK? It’s unlike her to not be in the game.
Don’t tell me she went and got a life…
hychka – Are we thinking of the same Ashcroft? The one who left the AG position to teach future monicas and Hatchlings at Regents University?
Here’s what I think, and not just about camels: the more humps, the better!
I have been termed a radical left winger by some. Which on some issues such as ‘no foreign adventures’ and ‘privacy’ my view overlaps with Libertarians.
Eureka Springs @ 10
As foul of as a the man is,he had some principlals…..probably due to some unsavory,unknown habits that would have been known to his “keepers”,after a few checkup taps of his line.
Geez – has anyone heard of Occam’s Razor? Why do people seem to think that the simple explanation for the Democratic victory in 2006 – that people were fed up with (a) war; (b) an unchecked executive branch; (c) mind-boggling corruption; and (d) did I mention the Iraq war?
Simple is better. Sadly, the MSM applies that as “Simpletons are better”.
Any analysis that compares a midterm with a Pres year is fundamentally flawed. Not sure I’m gonna read any more of the pdf, even though I’ve downloaded it.
is it hump day yet?
The Democrats sure seem to be on their way to losing their third straight Presidential election that they should have won easily.
Here’s a thought … tell everyone who’s still hanging around from the god-awful 2000 campaign that we don’t need you any more, time to go get a real job (watch them turn pale). Then take a look at the electorate and realize that the Democrats have a natural majority. Just do what the base wants you to do, and you’ll be golden!
Nah, that would be too easy, how would the candidates spend all those millions they’ve been collecting?
OT
Jackie “Moms” Mabley used to say that you should never say anything about someone who died, unless you can say something good.
Jerry Fallwell died today.
Good.
i would like to have politicians try to appeal to me. don’t see many of them doing it now.
Every action this administration has taken,,each by itself,only alianated a few…then the few became the many…..then the corruption,and favortizm,and bribes..now they are known to be the sick,sorry f**ks they are,to all..
OT – Gonzales on CSPAN right now. From this morning at Nationa lPress Club. You know, where he throws McNulty under the bus
Subway Serenade @ 18
ouch{big grin}
Professor Schaller teaches at the school my daughter will attend in the fall (also my alma mater) so I’m hoping she gets into a few of his classes. But I have to say my jaw is still hanging from reading Marcy’s reporting of Mr. Comey’s testimony.
the big question I have is when will someone crack wide open with enough filth to destroy these facists.
brownandserve @ 23
I’m still sitting here stunned
Anybody know if Keith is on at his regular time tonight?
OT and so sorry if this question has been asked a gazillion times today but, is there a link to a video of Comey testifying today?
been so busy with work , haven’t had a chance to do any real digging.
The Republican weirdos are about to take the stage.
am i the only one who had to look up “dromedary“?
OT re: wolfie
NY Times
this is pathetic,
pathetic!
selise @ 29
save the dromedery for yo’ Momma, deary. :~)
punaise @ 31
this is why you’re a legend (or something)
moi @ 27
It wasn’t on any of the CSPANs. I watched directly from the Senate site.
According to the punditocracy, I don’t exist. I’m a mid-fifties, straight WM Liberal. But if I don’t exist, someone has a seriously good imagination cuz I feel pretty real and solid. And I DO vote. Not quite in the words of Mayor Daley (vote early, vote often) but I do vote. And so does most of my family.
Unfortunately, even my nutter brudder.
randiego @ 26
He is on the East coast. Leads with Comey.
randiego @ 26
He’s on right now and WPITW is soon up.
thanks Helen,
now why the hell wouldn’t cspan cover this?
damn…and i read that he got a standing ovation at the end, and i missed it.
merde.
The person formerly known as Dr Laura WPITW for telling military wives to quit whining about worries that hubby might not make it back and tells them he might come back without arm or leg so they should just shut up since they’re not the ones dodging bullets.
What compassion.
Its to the point where I have had to re-calibrate what I belived the depths to which the leadership of this country has fallen/or was able to fall.We are soooo screwed.
We are ruled by thugs
sweet, thanks. I always catch him at 9 on the west coast, but thought tonight’s debate might screw that up.
MSNBC’s website is useless to find listings.
DrenchedOtter @ 17
DO, there’s a real danger to all that money — and the danger is the consultants the candidates will spend their money on. Why there’s a market for that kind of advice, I’ll never understand. Example #1: Bob Shrum.
moi @ 37
I hate to make you even mored pissed – but it was stunning. At one point he choked up. If there’s a chance you can see it, please do so.
Does anyone know who is Mike Gravel??
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/051507S.shtml
Everythingseemssoneat @ 28
Is there a channel to watch the GOP debate?
moi @ 27
if the live blog wasn’t enough…
marty lederman has posted the transcript. and i ripped the audio for firepups who couldn’t listen live (scroll down to #6).
no video, yet, that i am aware of.
am i the only one who had to look up dromedary?
Yes!
don’t forget Frontline tonight on USA spying on us it’s on here now
Elliott: (or something)
:~)
I hate to make you even mored pissed – but it was stunning. At one point he choked up. If there’s a chance you can see it, please do so.
OMG, you’re kidding me! was it in refference to missing the doj?
apparently Think Progress has the transcript.
gonna go read it now.
moi @ 49
OMG, you’re kidding me! was it in refference to missing the doj?
apparently Think Progress has the transcript.
gonna go read it now.
read the liveblogging marcy did here and read the comments, you’ll get a feel for what it was like
thanks, selise!
dakine01 @ 38
I had first thought this was on her broadcast and was shocked to hear Keith say it was a personal appearance at a base when she said it. I’m surprised the spouses didn’t tear her limb from limb (not advocating violence against the not-Dr, just amazed it didn’t happen).
moi @ 49
OMG, you’re kidding me! was it in refference to missing the doj?
apparently Think Progress has the transcript.
gonna go read it now.
It was about why he had to leave. He kept saying that he couldn’t stay cuz what they were doing was wrong. Spector kept harping at him with questions like “But they didn’t threaten to fire you; why would you leave?” An Comey just broke down and said something like “I could not stay.”
moi @ 49
OMG, you’re kidding me! was it in refference to missing the doj?
apparently Think Progress has the transcript.
gonna go read it now.
selise put the audio up, there’s a link on the Jerry Falwell thread, (I couldn’t open it so I can’t get you the link) it’s a must!
Spying on the Homefront (9 or 10pm in most markets)
Frontline
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/
A famous Irish pollster wrote concerning the center:
I forget which election he was writing about but I think it applies.
New thread…
new thread upstairs. it’s a good-un.
There must be a transcript of Comeys testimony. Keith showed some of it.
TeddySanFran- Yes, it’s on Hillary’s network.
snowbird42 @ 59
Here’s some of it...
This guy Schaller has it right on this:
Instead, wrongheaded Democratic strategists continue to believe “NASCAR dads” or “soccer moms” hold the keys to a future majority.
Through the hot haze of America’s divided desert, too many Democrats still think the electoral animal approaching on the horizon is a dromedary, while the clearer-eyed Republicans recognize it’s really a camel.
From the article
I don’t know why this would surprise anyone. I’m sitting here thinking just what the Republican party has to offer a single female and I’m drawing a blank.
1. Don’t have sex.
2. If you have sex, no condoms or birth control allowed.
3. If you get pregnant, you ho, YOU are not smart enough to be allowed to determine what to do with your body. Just marry the father, quit your job and do everything that he says.
Yep, I can see the appeal of the Republican party to the average single woman.
snuffy @ 24
throwing mcnulty under the bus may do it. he can very likely allow a “gotcha” on monica, and when she flips we get Kommisar Karl. If we flip rove we get BushCheney (to me they’re one hideously joint person). but it’s all still only theory at this point…
Jane, I thought Shaller’s article was a superb and economical analysis. I’m not sure if I’ll be here tomorrow, but I’d be interested in Shaller’s take on the CT Senate race.
selise @ 29
So, the couple from the city is walking past a fenced pasture, when suddenly, a cow looks skyward, and in a dreamy, wistful voice, asks rhetorically “Why ask for the moon when you can have the starz?”
Stunned, the couple continue on, not sure if this startling episode had really happened. Without warning, a bull rears up on two legs and bellows “You can’t handle the truth!”
Now, the couple truly knew they had witnessed something unusual. They huffed back to the Inn, and panted their shocking stories to the nonchalant Innkeeper, who seemed unsurprised.
“Nothing to worry about, folks. It’s just a drama dairy.”
(Apologies to Bette Davis, whose line I probably misremembered, but you get the idea.)
Well, I do not find it compelling. Here are the folks that I see “between the humps”:
They are the people who voted for Bush in 2004, but for Democratic representatives in 2006. There must be millions of them.
I see it this way: The Republicans thought that they had a new American Majority from 2000 – 2006, and for a while, they barely did. But that majority was an artificial construct that is now disintegrating.
Newt Gingrich built the two-humped camel, but maybe it only worked because there were a lot of people who don’t know very much, but who want to be on the winning team, and the Republicans looked like winners. Now, however, they have morphed into Republithugs, and suddenly that hot date is looking like the Wicked Witch of the West.
Bob in HI
DrenchedOtter @ 17
The Democrats’ last three presidential candidates and Gary Hart are from a group of Vietnam era expediters. These are the same “guys” who during the Vietnam era were not acting out of any degree of conscience but for personal gain or personal planning. And this includes Kerry and Gore who went to Nam and Clinton who did not. That generation lost its best to the vaguries and tragedies of that era and Kerry, Gore and Clinton were never the best of that generation or even close. It is time to drop that group of bullshit artists and move on.
Forget about all this “centrist” stuff. Schumer and gang are just vague, unimaginative self perceived instutional success stories. There is no potential for greatness and leadership.
Well, given the new GOoPer position that Ronnie Reagan is a ‘moderate’, and to the left of him are the ‘progressives’, the ‘liberals’, and the ‘radicals’, the DLC will probably be trying to get all the Ronnie-type ‘moderates’ to vote Dem. And they’ll miss the fact that half their base is ‘radical’ and the other half is ‘liberal’.
Schaller’s onto something.
Nevertheless, it’s reasonable to suppose that 98% of Americans view Abu Gonzales’s a thug for seeking John Ashcroft’s signature from his hospital bed. Reprehensible.
..humps or bumps…all things Bush and Republican will be voted off the stage for a long, long time…people want the good old peaceful days back, the budget in the black, roads repaired and infrastructure maintained. they’re sick of the “terrorists” and the phoney scares. Once Bush and his minions from hell are gone, things will fall back into place with a little effort and diplomacy…all things end, eventually.
With the voter turnout as low as it is, how can anyone draw any conclusions of voter makeup. Just for grins and giggles, let’s imagine 100% of the electorate shows up to vote in the next election. Then we can make some conclusions.
I saw a figure of 14% of the electorate voted in 2006? THAT’S a mandate? Is that figure correct? On a good year we get maybe 50-60%?
At 14%, Bush has every right to assume that those 14% aren’t representing the people that voted for him in 2004. As far as he’s concerned, they were are all at home clutching their rosaries rather than voting.
There is no center.
But there is also an opportunity for a big tent.
The core issues which people vote on have changed to some extent. Specifically, you can have many opinions on gun control and fit in the Democratic Party. You can have many opinions on tarriffs and international trade (as long as you don’t give the shop away to the big corporations). You can have many opinions on the best way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as long as you’re actually seriously trying to reduce them.
We encompass people who approved of the Afghan invasion and those who didn’t. Even people who want more trains and people who hate trains (sadly; we should encourage everyone to see the benefits of trains). We can include people who think drugs are fun, and those who think they’re dangerous, as long as they recognize that the Drug War is completely counterproductive.
What do you have to do to be successful in the Democratic Party today? (I’ll leave out the personality and campaigning stuff since I don’t understand it.)
(1) Be rock-solid on civil liberties and honest government issues, keeping the government out of people’s bedrooms and off their phones, restoring habeas, and so forth; including bringing the Administration to justice for its crimes, and ensuring the impartiality of the judiciary, and ending the political interference with the civil service and scientists;
(2) support generally progressive economic policies, rather than trying to loot the poor to pay the rich; (3) support sane things that work (like single-payer health insurance) and oppose things which don’t (like the War on Drugs, ‘abstinence-only education’, etc.)
This is not rocket science.
An alternative viewpoint: What if those “liberals” and “conservatives” who are now not affiliated with any party are, in fact, just expressing their dissatisfaction with the political parties themselves?
I think there are many people who have changed their registration as a protest against this very polarization of politics. They still vote with their same core beliefs, but they refuse to sanction what the parties themselves are doing.
It’s redolent of the growth in agnostics and atheists that vexes Christianists so much…people are leaving the very institutions that ostensible leaders (largely Republican) hold so dear.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 8
Agree!!
however Schaller is completely wrong about Dixie. As someone from the Deep South, I can tell you that a message of economic fairness will resonate to the tune of winning states like AR, LA, and especially VA. His analysis is DEAD WRONG. He needs to point more at the DLC dems and those who are just GOP lite for his ire and not an entire region. Southerners are not a bunch of bigots as he says. What they are are traditionalists.
The Dems lost their way by straying from their populist roots. We can win Western and states by following the mold of Schwietzer, Tester and Webb. Not by turning ourselves into a bunch of wimpy elitist Northeastern Yankee type liberals ala John Kerry. Who was a weak elitist cold ass. Could not even stand up and take a STRONG stance against the war in Iraq. Not for the sissy ass reasons that a lot of the activists have for being against it. But for the simple reason that it was a stupid ass thing to do. Bad foreign policy..period. How the hell else does someone lose to shitforbrains. Kerry lost that race. Bush did not win it. And it was because he could not grow a damn spine.
I know I am not giving my best in writing this right now but will have more pointed stuff for Schaller later.
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