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(Photo of a horse race in Gansu province in Tibet by slobo486. Some gorgeous shots here -- magical stuff.)
Andrea Mitchell, reporting on MSNBC, that it looks like a horse race -- at least in terms of finances -- for the Democratic primary in first quarter reporting. Obama's campaign is reporting that they have raised $25 million -- with 100,000 separate donors who have contributed for primary funding and the $2,300 limit. Which means they can double dip with these folks for general election campaign funding, if need be.
No word as yet from the Clinton camp on the breakdown of Hillary's funding, but Arianna had some thoughts on that yesterday. And Edwards managed to pick up around $14 million as reported by his campaign as well.
More on this as I get it -- but it sure looks like a horse race to me. Money does not equal a win, but it sure does make it a lot easier to get your message out the way things are set up at the moment, doesn't it?
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Zee: zed!
mc: Christy!
Watched some bobbleheads go one for five minutes the other day about how the Republicans have a chance. It’s clear the Dems are outraising them exponentially.
Hillary’s 36 million came from at least twelve separate donors.
From AP:
via The Left Coaster:
(oomph added)
keep your powder dry for now, Al.
The interesting thing is to also tie this to current polling. While Edwards lagged behind considerably in the fundraising department for this quarter (funny to think of $14 mil as chump change), he actually gained 5 points and is in a statistical tie with Obama. Hillary lost a few points, but still leads the pack in the polls - but not by a lot.
I still think it’s way too early to predict what will happen. I don’t even know who I’ll put my support behind yet. I think it’ll be an interesting summer and fall before we have a notion of who is really running strong in this race… perhaps it’ll even be a dogfight all the way through Iowa (like last time).
I’m voting for John Edwards.
Lord how I wish this wasn’t all about how much money a person can raise and more about who is the most competant person to be president. The money spent on campaigns on both sides of the fence is astounding and out of control.
Bay State Librul @ 8
Me, too. At least until, if and when, he drops out. Then it’s Al, baby!
steeelthing at 9 — Amen. I don’t talk fundraising amounts very often, but this quarter has shown how fluid things are at the moment because the money for Democratic candidates is strongly there — but the decision has not been made — not by a longshot — on who exactly is most deserving to receive it. It is going to be a VERY interesting year.
It’s the breadth of his fundraising base that has to have the other candidates worried. Plus, since his are apparently all “primary dollars” he stands head and shoulders above the rest. BTW, Christie, I used to live 2 blocks down Main St. from you.
dr. bloor @ 4
Not really, but too close to the truth for her “supporters” not to share her pain. Even more painful must be the sparse crowds she gets whenever Obaba or Edwards are within an hour’s drive of her. I’ve heard, read or watched several reports of people clamoring for Obama shirts, stickers and
Hell’s Angels vests, uh, other paraphenalia, while Clinton’s campaign workers have to back a semi trailer up to her booth at the end of events to haul away the unclaimed campaign junk.If you don’t stop all this futile political speech you’re liable to become asuspect.
ABH
Anyone but Hillary. Because everyone (of the R persuasion) can beat Hillary.
pogo at 12 — Very fun — love our street. Especially this time of year, with all the flowering pear and magnolia trees in full bloom. :)
mc @ 10
Sharpton or Gore. I love them both.
Richardson? Edwards? Edwards? Richardson? I’m still torn.
I don’t know why anyone thinks polls at this point are anything more than name recognition. I think people know who Hillary is, in an, OK, I could vote for her, kind of way, but when folks start focusing and see that there are real alternatives (and I’m with you, Bay State Librul & MC - Edwards is the guy for now) I think the fatigue of all things Clinton will pull her down in a hurry.
It’s the old saw about her support being a mile wide and an inch deep…
tommy yum @
3
Yeah. When both Hillary and Obama outraise the top GOP fundraiser — and that top GOP fundraiser is “Mister Three Percent” Mitt Romney — you KNOW the Republicans are going to get their asses kicked.
If things go right, whoever wins the Democratic primary may actually have, in addition to coattails for the down-ticket candidates to grab onto, enough cash to share with the down-ticket folks.
dr. bloor @
4
I got invited to a big Hillary event here in LA - and they were really pushing the $4600 maximum, with half, of course, being for the General election. I think Hillary’s strategy was to scare everyone with money and “inevitability”, and it seems like they’ll need a plan B.
not on topic and I’m sorry but when you get a chance, check this youtube out it’s kind of frightening
torture cheney is standing behind bush far off where nobody but a long range lense can see him
he’s doing nothing but on looking the president as if he can hear what’s going on.
he has nothing else to do but watch the press conferance, out of ear shot and it looks like out of eye shot too
check that out…I don’t know why that is frightening but for some reason it is.
I was thinking about sending twenty five dollars to the Edwards campaign and twenty five to Kucinich..guess I better up it to thirty and cut back on next months chocolate budget.
If my contribution goes toward one rediculous television ad, I might scream.
jayt @ 15
Can they? Or is that just what they’ve been working on getting people to believe? I’m suspect of their propping up her image. Then again, I’m suspect of everything they do.
“Sharpton or Gore. I love them both.”
Well, Gore IS formidable in California! (h/t to punaise) ;-)
hmmm
perris at 22 is waiting moderation…when someone can see it please tell me what is in that post that triggered the filter
Steelthing: you reminded me of something that came to mind the other day. I don’t remember who it was on one of the news talk shows (Hardball perhaps), but someone said that this quarter proves that the system of publically funded presidential elections is officially over. When candidates can raise this much money in a quarter, there is absolutely no reason for anyone to take the Presidential Campaign Matching funds provided by the government (with their restrictions).
The other day, I was doing my taxes, and my husband asked if I wanted to donate the $3 to the Presidential Election Campaign Fund. My response flew out of my mouth before I even thought about it - “no, because this fund is moot now. The only candidates now who will use this fund are those who are fringe candidates with no real base of support, the people who can’t raise tens of millions and therefore have no real chance of winning. I don’t want to fund the trough for Lyndon LaRouche wannabees”.
I hope that this system is revised in the next ten years. We have bigger fish to fry at the moment, but when we’ve cleaned up a lot of the Neocons disasters, we should turn our attention toward campaign finance reform.
Bay State Librul @ 17
Actually, I saw a debate in ‘04 and left stunned because Sharpton was the only there not spewing rhetoric.
mc @
25
backatcha… another case of CA trendsetting?
Bay State Librul @
8
me too…after following the Conneticut senate campaign at FDL I can’t stomach the way Obama treated Ned Lamont and the Lamont campaign. I won’t vote for him unless I absolutely have to (i.e. he gets the primary nod) and if I’m living back in the States at that time, he won’t get my boots on the ground support. Just my vote. Now, if Edwards gets the nod and I’m still living abroad, I’ll plan a trip home just to knock on doors for him…
Phoenix Woman @ 20
Romney is in love with himself…
He spent 213 days out of Massachusetts on
a ego trip…
Massachusetts was only a fucking stepping stone
He may be a IPO specialist but he’s no leader..
CHS @ 16 - Yep, that’s a great little area - lived there for 8 years before we moved out to the C’burg CC area about 3 yrs. ago - we were on the corner of Park & Main (the multicolored Victorian next to Sotiricus) had no yard and a growing boy who needed to roam without being between the Monticello/PikeSt. connector (but I do work with Mr. ReddHedd).
[CHS notes: Yep, I know. And I’ve modified the above ever-so-slightly..you’ll see why. :)]
As almost everyone knows, the Net has helped Obama. From the NYTimes website:
I have contributed to Obama’s campaign twice now. He’s my Senator, and I waited in single digit temps for five hours to shake his hand on the day he announced in Springfield (affectionately referred to as SpringPatch by us locals…if you’ve ever been here you will understand why!). I watched him explode onto the IL political scene while I was serving as a leg. sec. for the other guys. (Eeek! Please don’t throw things at me. I was naive back then.) A lot has happened here in IL gov’t and politics since that first year he was a senator.
I have been exposed to politics from a very young age. My parents were Republicans and, by association, so was I. We lived in the state capitol, so EVERYTHING and I mean EVERYTHING, was touched by politics. I left state employment because of a crisis of conscience. I just couldn’t play the game anymore.
I think Senator Obama is the real deal. I’ve seen a lot of phonies (read my republican bosses), and I just don’t get that vibe from him. I hope for a better America on the back of Barack.
perris -
I get spam for those little things that folks with bad vision put in their eyes . . . so your reference to a l*ns (or l*nse, as you spelled it) might have done it.
Corzine endorsed Hilliary, which is an indication of where the NJ machine money will flow. I’m sure they share the donor pool since the power base in NJ is in the north.
Corzine Endorses Hilliary Clinton
considering how front loaded the primaries and caucuses are now, coming on strong and fast for a few short weeks, if HRC/BO/JRE all have enough supporters and money to hit those early contests hard, could they split up the delegates in such a manner that no one has a clear majority before the convention?
OK I am a political junkie, and admit that a national conveniton that actually meant something would be very interesting…..
I gave money to the Edwards campaign recently. I am not a fan of Hillary’s, and even though Barack is an excellent speaker and charismatic — I’m not sure about him for several reasons.
First, I am very suspicious of anyone who would be involved in a land deal with the “indicted” Tony Rezko. There is no room in my mind for any corruption in my candidate. And I wonder if Obama is not a little too slick, and that he might give into the Republicans too easily. I could be wrong — but I don’t have a strong positive feeling about him as many do — it’s just a gut feeling. I want substance over sizzle now more than ever.
I believe Edwards is sincere and running on principles he believes in and that he will actually work to make the changes I think we need for our country. So for now — I am supporitng him.
Oh lordy. MSNBC is playing wall-to-wall American Idol footage today and that Sanjaya dude…ick. I mean truly…ick.
EPU’d from last thread but on topic here.
Meanwhile, McCain probably shouldn’t have had last Sunday in the Park:
Surely, fundraising matters more than polls at this point. But, polls do show how the race might be moving. Frankly, I’m surprised that Edwards is polling at the same place as Obama. Polling in Iowa is also very important - and my understanding is that Edwards and Obama both have more support than Clinton in that state.
Fundraising is the key - it shows who will be able to afford to put their message out. And, of course, we’re all waiting to see who stumbles, who has a “Dean moment”, and how other candidates capitalize on the tiniest situation and blow it into a controversy.
If you lived in a town 50 miles from where Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Richardson and Gore were all giving speeches in two hours at separate venues, which one would you drive to?
steeelthing @
9
The amounts of money involved are obscene. And the length of these campaigns! Boggles the mind. Well my mind, anyway.
Biodun @ 33
The key thing with small donors — Obama’s or anyone else’s — is that you can go back to them again and ask for more. You already know that they like you, which puts you over the biggest hurdle. On the other hand, if you’ve made the bulk of your funds off the big donors, you’ve maxed out until you find new people who like you enough to send money.
Donors who haven’t hit that $2300 ceiling are a deep, deep fundraising well, and it sounds like Obama’s got a lot of them.
Ruby at 37 — I think that is a very real possibility. And one that all of the campaigns have to be considering. I’ve heard that PA is thinking about pushing its primary forward — Rendell has been a buddy of Bill Clinton’s for a while — and I’m wondering if that might have a connection to the effort. But then again, you never know which rumor you are hearing is an accurate one — and which is a plant — without a LOT of digging, these days — and I haven’t been able to chase that particular one down with any specificity.
It is certainly quite fluid at this point, though, and that ought to make for some serious interest in all of this over the next few months.
That Sanjaya dude is just one more distraction for MSM, in the same vein as Anna Nicole. Just not as ghoulish.
And BTW: What’s up with mass culture’s obsession with hair? Sanjaya, Edwards, and so on.
Millineryman @ 36
Heard this with disgust the other day. Turned around and donated a little to Edwards and Obama. Mr. NJP and I are firmly in the ABH camp.
I don’t care how much money they have. Obama: Too much shiny-object factor, too little experience, too much rock-star factor. Hillary: Too much tringulation factor. Unless Al runs, I am looking for a dark horse, and am not convinced about Edwards yet.
Christy Hardin Smith @ 39
He is the shark that’s going to jump American Idol.
Ed*ard Teller @ 42
I’d drive, walk, crawl to hear Gore, Edwards and Obama. I’d take a train to hear Richardson. I’d stay home and knit when Hillary came to town.
Christy Hardin Smith @ 38
He looks like a child of M Jackson and a Stepford wife..
sofistic @ 48
Edward’s 60 Minute episode convinced me…
Calm under pressure…
Priorities are tip top…
and he is human….
Jack
Christy Hardin Smith @
39
Why, of course they are. There’s nothing important happening in the world, right?
Peterr @ 44
This is a tried and true political fundraising theory. I read, saw or heard that the number of donations to Obama’s campaign in the 1st qtr was in the 80,000 range whereas Clinton’s was in the 60,000 range. I’m not an expert, but the 20,000 difference has to equate to more votes for Obama, right? Or is my logic screwed up? Wouldn’t be the first time for that…hehe
perris @
26
perris, you have a link to that Youtube?
Ed*ard Teller @
42
Richardson - to learn more about him and see if he really deserves my vote as I suspect he does.
Mutant Poodle @ 49
And it’s about time that piece of dreck jumped the shark…
I too am firmly a member of the ABH club. I will never vote for her under ANY circumstance. As to the rest of the candidates, I remain undecided. I like bits and pieces of them all, and will gladly vote for any of them as the Democratic nominee.
But not ole Crazy Eyes. Yep….Ms. Rodham, when giving public speeches, comes dangerously close to being a woman with “crazy eyes”. It’s not evident in her one-on-one interviews, but put her in front of a crowd and I start to see those eyes. Not as advanced as Runaway Bride or Malkin, but close.
To answer Teller’s question, I’d drive to see Gore…in a heartbeat.
Ghostman
Money.
I can take a cab to the Oakland airport (one-way trip) for around $35.
If I lived in Baghdad, on the other hand, that trip to the airport would run between $3500 and $5000, according to NPR’s Anne Garrels, who has lived in Baghdad’s “red zone” for quite some time while reporting from Iraq.
(h/t to Steve Clemons - go read the whole thing, as she takes donw John McCain)
Ed*ard Teller @ 42
Edwards > Gore >> Obama.
I already know what Big Bill has to say, so no interest there for me. Hillary wants to be president way too much, and has shifted her positions in that interest way too often for my comfort, so no interest there.
BC
Ghostman - You know what I see most of all in her (HRC) audience eye? Two things.. The fix is in and I know it and arrogance. It is strange. Also her handlers need to get rid of her shoulder pads.
Eureka Springs @ 61
She might think the fix is in, but others have thought that, too. If we were back in the old D machine days, then the fix could be in. But she’s still got to win primaries to get the nomination.
BC
This recent quote from Hillary pretty much sums up why I don’t like her:
a) this is embarrassingly silly bluster and foreshadows the continual bombing runs and other methods of showing a gal can be just as tough as a guy that would characterize an H. Clinton presidency.
b) While Hugo Chavez suppression of opposition puts him about on-par with Putin in the “champions of democracy” sweepstakes, to make him an enemy of the US is to subscribe to the neo-con worldview. Maybe if we weren’t trying to overthrow him (as part of our history of assassinating/overthrowing Latin American leaders), he’d be a little less antagonistic toward the U.S. (Anyway, Hugo seems to properly focus his antagonism toward the Bush regime rather than the American people.)
Biodun @ 5
A huge ATTABOY!!! former SDNY alum, Jeh Johnson who has really been going all out for Obama. jeh has been fundraising, spokemodelling, you name it, and it is obvioulsy paying off.
I don’t know if I am going to be an Obama girl or not, but Jeh ole’ bean, if your lurking, you have done one amazing job so far. Really stellar.
Congrtulations.
Al Gore for me.
I don’t trust any of the others yet - all have pluses and minuses.
I’d say my second tier includes Richardson and Edwards.
Clinton and Obama - the negatives start piling up.
OT — USA firings, not sure if this has been posted
1) Conyers and Sanchez sent letter today to Goodling’s lawyer today, saying she doesn’t have grounds to plead the 5th. And…
2) Leahy and Whitehouse sent a letter to Gonzo that they are contemplating that the creation of a special counsel to pursue the investigation of the role of Justice Department staff in the firing 0f the 8 USA since DOJ is so “helplessly conflicted”
Link
The scandal that just keeps giving.
BC — Iowa is a tricky one, as is NH. The folks there take their politics and their responsibiliy as citizen selectors very seriously. And they have finely tuned bullshit meters that have toppled more than their share of would be contenders. Like I said, this should be QUITE interesting.
Hillary lost me with her stance on Iraq — it would have been nice to see Bill as Secretary of State.
Obama is VP material — not enough experience to be Prez yet IMVHO.
Gore — I really don’t think he’s going to run.
(If he did, I would vote for him).
I don’t know anything about Richardson…
Started researching Edwards a couple of weeks ago, and I liked what I read. So he’s got my vote.
Hmmmm. Now that’s an interesting observation by Eureka Springs. That’s a “pause for thought” moment for me. I hadn’t seen it that way, but…well, like I said, a VERY interesting observation by ES. Hmmm.
Ghostman
I won’t be surprised one bit if the Dems end up with an Edwards/Obama ticket. Edwards: P. Obama: VP.
I’m a charter member of the ABH club. She’ll never get one dime from me. Of course, if push comes to shove, I’d hold my nose and vote for her over a rethuglican, but that’s a pretty low threshold.
HotFlash @ 55
hey hotflash, when in new york?.
I, too, an in the ABH camp.
The news today about Obama’s fundraising is fantastic because one of the ONLY things Hillary had going for her was her claim of “inevitability”.
This announcement deals a devastating blow to Hillary’s “inevitability” claim, and thereby undercuts the heart of her campaign strategy, which had been to coerce big money donors to give to Hillary and only Hillary, because she was the clear frontrunner and presumptive nominee.
Once it is obvious to the public at large (and the big donors) that Hillary is not inevitable, I predict that her support will continue to erode at an increasing pace.
It is a beautiful, beautiful thing.
And Hillary, thanks again for helping to clarify things for us:
“If the most important thing to any of you is choosing someone who did not cast that vote or has said his vote was a mistake, then there are others to choose from,” Mrs. Clinton told an audience in Dover, N.H., in a veiled reference to two rivals for the nomination, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois and former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02.....mp;emc=rss
Ed*ard Teller @ 41
Richardson because of all the candidates he’s the one I know the least about and never heard him make a speech.
Zee @ 18
Richardson has bimbo problems–much more than just his propensity to invade your space in conversation & establish physical contact. These would come out bigtime if he became competitive. So resign yourself, that as good as his qualifications are, he’ll never be a prez candidate.
Biodun @ 70
That’s my ticket!
Christy Hardin Smith @ 67
CHS,
I think that was my point. She has to do well with primary voters to survive. It’s not clear to me that IA and NH Democrats will take kindly to a sense that the fix is in.
As the Big Dog said, “Democrats want to fall in love, Republicans want to fall in line.”
It’s going to be an interesting primary season, indeed.
BC
so Lieberman’s not running this time around?
Edward’s is not shy kicking Bush’s arse.
http://rawstory.com/news/2007/....._0403.html
Biodun @ 70
I’d like that choice. Obama is too green to be at the top of the ticket. If you think of prez campaign as series of tests, he’s failed several-latest being post-veto Iraq funding statements. Rovians would rip him a new one during campaign. He’s a very dangerous ticket header for Ds.
punaise @ 78
Ha! Good one.
Biodun @ 70
punaise @ 78
Headline for January 2009: LIEberman No Longer Exits
notableabsence @ 29
If Edwards had still been in the Senate, he would not have embraced Lamont. It’s an accepted axiom, you don’t campaign against incumbants in your own party.
off to drive my 50 miles - to play J.S. Bach and Corelli to the 100 kids in a close friends’ music appreciation class. then to practice, practice, practice….
Edwards, Gore, Richardson, Biden, Dodd, Kucinich then Clinton.
I would love to listen to them all, but only Hillary manages to anger me in her speeches. I would vote for them in that order, too…though I like Kucinich much better than is indicated by my voting order.
I would only vote for Hillary as a vote against whichever nutjob the Republicans put up. I think it will be Romney, the same folks supporting him are the ones that gave us Dubya over much stronger Republicans. He’s looks the part of the “compassionate conservative”, too, though they won’t recycle the phrase.
My dream ticket is Edwards / Richardson.
Brisingamen @
68
Seriously look into Richardson. He doesn’t have my vote yet, but he’s working on it. He seems to have true substance. Excellent foreign policy experience which sure would be nice right now. Good environmental cred. I’m learning more about him and so far, so good.
I know Obama’s a good speaker, but until he actually says something…
My reason to vote for Edwards: Elizabeth. The country could use a “First Lady” like her. (Gawd, there must be a better term…)
Crap…Typo in the Jan ‘09 Headline
Supposed to have typed:
LIEberman No Longer Exists
I should prolly be working anyway instead of commenting. Later!
punaise @
71
I’m with you 100%. I’d vote for her. But I wouldn’t like it. I ain’t doin’ another four years of Bush-like hell if I can help it.
Christy Hardin Smith @
39
Why are you watching MSNBC? Reach for the remote, please………….
OT
But Waxman just sent a little letter to the head of the RNC looking for some emails.
mc @ 86
Exactly.
Meanwhile, Edwards returns to Iowa. From the NYTimes website:
Kucinich has the best positions on the issues I care most about.
Then there’s Gore.
I will not support Hillary.
Rove gets the heels welcome. Go to jail Karl.
-GSD
Ed*ard Teller @ 84
JS Bach I would drive 50 miles to hear.
AnnieW @ 85
I like Kucinich more than any two of the others combined. I just don’t believe that DK can win the general election. If he’s too left-wing for D primary voters, he’d be in trouble in the general.
BC
landofthefree @ 7
Some polls here in Iowa actually have Edwards leading. He is campaigning hard and is really hitting the “Town Hall” settings. The strategy seems to be paying off here in Iowa. I have yet to decide on who I am supporting. Personally, I am leaning toward Edwards. I like Obama, because he kissed my baby girl at the Harkin Steak Fry last fall!
emptywheel @ 91
Fantastic news.
Bay State Librul @ 79
pretty nice, here’s the money line;
check this part out immediately after, I have a suggestion for edwards to follow
I think it would have been GREAT if he followed with;
“for instance, I just pointedg out the obvious, that Bush is not only dead wrong but that he is decieving Americans when he makes bizzare claims like “democrats aren’t funding the troops” when everyone knows as a fact we gave him every penny he asked for and more…now, with that I am willing to bet the poll numbers change for the better just by pointing out this obvious fact”
hehe
that would be GREAT
eCAHNomics @
75
More details please?
emptywheel @ 91
The circle is closing, the noose is tightening.
A few more months and the Republicans may be lining up at the George W. Bush dunktank with a handfull of balls.
-GSD
I want a modern-day equivalent of Thomas Jefferson.
*xyz @ 99
Yep
Emails relating to any use of government resources to help REpublican candidates.
In Karl Rove’s world, that’s just about everything, including a fair share of his email to DOJ, I’d imagine.