
(Photo by AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais via Yahoo.)
There are certain themes and classic techniques that the Defense bar takes advantage of at Summation. Some call them old chestnuts. Some treat them like the works of Shakespeare.
Among the themes you will usually hear from the Defense is often a discussion of reasonable doubt. The usual jury charge judges give says something along the lines of “beyond a reasonable doubt is not beyond all doubt. It is the level of certainty you would use in making a serious decision in your own life; buying a house, choosing a job, planning an education.” The Defense’s job is to confuse the jury about the standard “beyond a reasonable doubt.” A well done Defense summation will cause a juror to believe that if they have any sense of hesitation or if they have any question that they cannot point to or infer an answer for, that must somehow rise to the level of a reasonable doubt. A skillful lawyer does not do this in a stark black and white kind of way, but rather just a “thumb on the scale.” Shifting the result just a bit in favor of his client.
Remember, the Prosecution has to convince ALL the jurors in order to win, the Defense need only convince ONE juror in order to get a hung jury which gives him a re-trial. Yep, a do over.
Another theme that you may very well see in a case like this is the Defense taking a shot at jury nullification. Jury nullification occurs when the jury sees that the facts are as the Prosecution said they would be, the law is as the Prosecution believed, the Defendant is clearly guilty, yet the jury will refuse to do its duty and convict. My experience with jury nullification involved a jury who clearly believed (or so they said in the post verdict press interviews) that the Defendants were guilty of the crimes charged and that the government had presented sufficient evidence, however they felt that the underlying criminal activity (in this case giving someone a patronage job as a form of a bribe) was so commonplace that it ought not be a crime. The jury forewoman actually said that “everybody does it” and that she had gotten her own job through “a favor.” Consequently, they refused to vote to convict because they thought the crime shouldn’t be a crime.
Emptywheel has an intriguing theory about how jury nullification may play out:
Throughout this trial, Wells has stated that Armitage and Rove were the leakers, in spite of the fact that Libby, too, had a conversation with Novak in plenty of time to leak Plame's identity and in spite of the fact that Libby clearly did his share of leaking. In dealing with Ari, Jeffress clearly suggested that Ari should be charged with perjury for not admitting that Pincus is his source. Fitzgerald has charged that this is an attempt at jury nullification. That is, he is suggesting (and it's a very serious charge) that Team Libby is trying to get the jury to believe that it was wrong for Libby to be charged and that, in spite of all the instructions they will get about the seriousness of obstruction and lying, he should not be found guilty. Fitzgerald is suggesting that Wells is planting the notion that, since Armitage is the big leaker, Libby shouldn't go to jail. Or that, since Ari didn't face charges, neither should Libby.
IMO, there is a big risk this will be successful. I have no idea what Wells will say in his closing statements, but he's sure to bring up Armitage and Rove and Ari again. Add in Wells' statement that "the only way my client is found guilty is if you violate your oath," and I think Fitzgerald's harsh charge is totally fair. Wells appears to want the jury to find Libby innocent because of all the bright shiny objects out there. After all, they only need to pick off one juror.
Of all the classic Defense Summations, my all time favorite is something called “The Scottish Verdict Summation.” I have no idea if it correctly reflects the laws of Scotland or not, but it goes something like this:
In the United States we offer juries a choice from only two verdicts: guilty or not guilty. In the United States the not guilty verdict does not exactly equal a verdict that the Defendant is innocent.
In Scotland, juries are offered a choice of three possible verdicts: guilty, innocent and not proven. It is the not proven verdict that I wish to focus your attention on. By voting “not proven” the jury says, ‘we may believe that the Defendant committed the crime charged, but we believe that the Prosecution has not met its burden here in this court.’
The Defense will then launch into a litany of investigation techniques that the government did not employ, witnesses the government did not call, exhibits the government did not try to offer into evidence.
Then the Defense will finish off something like this: In this country we do not have the luxury of the three verdict system. We fold in together the innocent verdict and the not proven verdict into one verdict we call “not guilty.” If you believe that the Prosecution has not met its burden here in this courtroom, regardless of whether you believe the Defendant is innocent, you are required by your oath, to find that if the case is not proven the Defendant is indeed not guilty.
Done well, the Scottish Verdict Summation can be very effective. Although it is old hat to lawyers, it is fresh and new for jurors.
My personal guess, this Defense’s best hope is jury nullification, perhaps along the lines that Emptywheel envisions. Its fall back position is to work for a hung jury, because in that case Libby lives on to fight another day in the “do over” trial.
Related posts:
- All Charges Against Blackwater Guards in Nisour Killings Dismissed
- Fort Hood Shooter’s Trial May Shed Light on NSA/CIA Domestic Spying
- The Taxpayers Paid Dick Cheney’s Personal Defense Attorney to Obstruct Any Inquiries Into His Crimes
- Scott Roeder Found Guilty of First-Degree Murder
- If You Believe Guantanamo Makes Us Safer, You Should Have Been Here Today



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Patrick Fitzgerald, decriminilizing government one criminal at a time.
Fitz?
FIREDAWGS!
So jury nullification carried to it’s extreme is… many wrongs make it right?
Nope. Happy Presidents’ Day everyone!
Morning lhp, this got EPU’d on scarecrow’s thread, so I took the liberty of re-commenting it. The links in the EPU’d comment work for anyone who is interested.
oops. trying to skip breakfast today, but this is not for an empty stomach, lhp.
back in a bit… ;->
Many say the OJ case was jury nullification. Is this the case? After all, murder is fairly common place in the U.S.A. Nullification almost has the scent and flavor of mob-rule.
Cheney story ‘held’ by Times: http://www.rawstory.com//news/….._0218.html
Is Fitz giving the closing argument? If so, how effective have his previous arguments been?
LHP:
As the expert in this area, how likely is it that Libby will not be found guilty? I followed the trial blogging here, and I believe that the best Libby can hope for is a hung jury. Although there is always some doubt about guilt, I see no doubt based in “reason.” Sure, ALL prosecution witnesses could be mistaken, but is that a “reasonable” likelihood? Could Libby have “forgotton” all those conversations, and Cheney’s memo? Could Libby simultaneously “remember” a conversation that never took place? HAHAHAHA!
I am mindful however, that it only takes one “wingnut” on the jury to steadfastly ignore the evidence and vote for acquittal. Let’s hope that Fitz purged the jury pool of all the wingnuts.
John Casper
Is it your concept that informed readers come in an confront her withthe mirad misstatemtns of fact and law?
If her “chat” gets a lot of hits wouldn’t that validate her as a rainmeker?
What do you see as the cost benefit analysis of engaging her on any level?
Someone in Jerylin’s thread said something about writing WaPo and it’s advertisers to complain and use boycott sounding terminology.
I am always so torn between the engage and pushback vs. shunning dichotomy with nutcases and liars, that I end up paralyzed and doing nothing.
I would like to know your thoughts
Great post lhp.
I’m hoping the jury will see that Scooter is not some innocent pawn. Scooter cashed his paycheck every two weeks. That certified that he agreed that he was one of the ten or fifteen most powerful people in the US wrt national security.
OT, it’s funny to sit and listen to Scooter’s GJ testimony where he says “Wilson was wrong,” when we now know that Scooter “was wrong.”
Scooter’s job description (and Cathie Martin’s) had nothing to do with national security. DeadEye paid them to torture raw intelligence into a form that matched with DeadEye’s demented and oversimplified view of the Middle East. They did not spend their days pouring over the intelligence or figuring out how to best protect America. They spent their time trying to hammer the MSM into printing WH talkingpoints, no matter how much they contradicted the reality.
1. I think that if the jurors come away with the realization that their government has abused the public trust, and that Libby was a willing tool to manipulate their opinion by promoting and protecting misleading information, they will convict him.
2. If they believe that he was just following orders and feel sorry for him, because he’s taking the fall for the misdeeds of his bosses, they might not convict him.
3. It is also possible that they may consider him human and capable of forgetting details about timing, because of his work load and the importance of his other duties, but when they look at all of the directives by the OVP (and/or president himself)it will be clear to them, that at the time in question, he was spending most of his time taking action against the Wilson story. Then, realizing this it becomes clear that he had a motive to obscure what was really happening. They will convict him.
I’m betting on #3. If they convict him, I don’t believe he will be pardoned unless Fitz closes the investigation. I believe he will fall on the sword, do some time, and then write a book. It all depends on if Fitz continues to pursue the conspiracy investigation.
I almost hope it’s a hung jury and we get a do-over, because we’ll get more information about how the inner circle operates. That, in my opinion, is the most important “gift” of this whole trial.
Well after reading the WaPo’s on-line paper today I could see what you’re saying. It was titled…Everyone lies because they have kind, noble, and innocent intentions and Mr. Libby’s no Exception”. (okay so I lied -with noblist of intentions.I was just being kind—about the title of the article as you should have seen what I really wanted to write) but just found it interesting and thought it might relate to your discussion here.
After the op-ed line-ups over the weekend including York, Toensing, and Novak (blasting Murtha today) and this piece on page A2 with a no name author at least the on-line version I read…certainly think that
WaPoCheneyco (okay they’re the same thing) doth protest too much! Both have something to hide methinks. Barbara Comstack certainly has been a busy bee.Oklahoma kiddo @ 8
No, I don’t think OJ was jury nullification. In th eOJ case the judge allowed Johnny Cochran to make an improper arguemnt which was inconsistant with the record.
Rememeber “if the glove does not fit you must acquit” ?
Well, the judge had previously ruled during arguments for a directed verdicted, that even if there was not glove, there was still enough evidence in the record to support a conviction.
Therefore Cochoran should nt have been permitted to argue that failure of a single piece of evidence = failure of the whole case.
Frnakly, I think THAT is where Wells is trying to go with the haggling over the jury charge about the Judy Miller July 12 conversation. He is looking for his “glove don’t fit” argument
first, I don’t think jury nullification will take place here, the jury is going to understand our national security has paid a price and I also think they will believe that libby is only the first person charged instead of the only person charged
never the less, I would like the professional opinion on jury nullification
my personal opinion is that it’s not only the jury’s obligation to judge the criminal, it’s also their obligation to judge the law
for instance, we all know there are laws that remain “on the books” that have no practical value and are actually harmful to society
it seems to me that if I “jay walk” to save a person’s life, I did indeed jay walk, the proof is there, however the jury should find me innocent never the less
I understand a judge can declare innocence siting “extenuating circumstances”, or “in the interest of the law”
but I believe the jury can do the same if they think the judge should have and didn’t
opinions please
How about jury nullification the other way?
Mrs. Forewoman, can you explain the guilty verdict? You felt the prosecution proved its case beyond a reasonable doubt?
Oh, no, honey! We couldn’t make heads or tails of all the stuff that was being thrown up at the wall. I don’t know if the specific charges in this particular trial are the right one. There are so MANY lies it’s hard to keep them all straight. And they were all VERY happy to stab each other in the back when push came to shove. I DO know, however, that what I saw throughout the trial is that this gentleman, Mr. Libby, along with the President, the Vice-President and a whole lot of other folks were more concerned about thier political butts than they were about protecting CIA officers and they were so hard-up (excuse me, can I say that?) to go to war that they didn’t give a shit (sorry!) about whether they lied or not! I’m just sorry we could only put this man’s slimy ass in the pokey for the short time we could.
lhp-
On engaging with Toensig, I think some nuts you just ignore. But Toensig is seen as someone with credibility by many. She is on Washington Journal, she gets the front page of a WaPo section.
Her obvious lies need to be pushed back and the WaPo held to account for their editorializing pure nutball fiction as something to take seriously.
So pushback, whether that means we engage with her or use other means is necessary.
solai @ 10
Zeidenbverg is giving the first Summation for Team Fitz, then Wells goes for Team Libby, the Pat bats cleanup.
By reputaton, Summation is the best part of his game. I’m looking forward to it.
Heh. Specter tried to vote “Not Proven” in the Clinton impeachment trial. According to wiki, it is still part of Scottish law.
There should be some way to redress jury nullification. Like appeal or something. And I know about ‘double jeopardy’.
typo cop:
the jury will refuse to do it’s duty [never an apostrophe in possessive, sh be “its duty”]
the crime shouldn’t be crime. [be “a” crime.]
Because we want the posts to be pretty when they go out into the Internet links….
sonate @ 11
Your feeling reflect my own. However, having been on the recieving end of a jury nullification verdict, (it was several minutes before the “not” party of not guilty actually registered with me. One of the Defendants had a best friend who was sitting right behind me in the gallery who bagan weeping with relief. At first, I thought we won.
The press gallery was so startled that they all start shreiking “what?” What?” How?”
You just never see that coming. It is always a stunner
I’m not sure this characterization is valid
I think it’s the jury’s duty to judge the law as well as the person indicted
perris @ 17
I think the average citizen can differentiate between jay-walking vs. breaching the public trust that results in the death of their children or the children of their fellow citizens by being used as cannon fodder for ideologically-driven political purposes. The vote in November shows that. If they weren’t shocked before, they probably are now.
perris @ 17
It is a violation of their oath to do that. having said that, they have de facto power to do so, since the prosecution cannot appeal.
froggermarch @ 18
That would buy the defendant and appeal
But didn’t the leather glove shrink because of being soaked or drenched in liquid? Would it have been more prudent to have had the defendant try on an exact replica of the shrunken glove, as a rebut? (before shrinkage)
Since Fitz has been around the block many times facing this defense argument, I’d be curious to see how he’s managed to successfully offset this jury mindset in previous trials.
Prairie Sunshine @ 23
Thankyou PS. However, I shall have to rely on the kindness of the Mods to fix, since I do not have a backstage pass.
[Mod Note; it’s our pleasure. Refresh and they should be fixed.]
looseheadprop @ 27
I’m not familiar with the oath the jury takes, what portion of the oath does this violate?
Linda2 @ 26
don’t mistake my post, I don’t think there should be jury nulification here, I am asking a rhetorical question only
perris @ 25
That is not the state of US law. It is the judge’s duty to judge the law. He then dictates that law to the jury in the jury instructions. It is the jury’s duty to judge the facts and to apply the law AS IT WAS GIVEN TO THEM BY THE JUDGE. No freelance judging of the law by the jurors.
looseheadprop @ 12
Excellent point lhp.
Based on what you wrote, I would revise and widen my position.
Primary goal is to help the WaPo understand that Victoria has no business hosting a WaPo chat on the atrocity that is TRIAL IN ERROR.
They should cancel the chat. That leaves the emphasis on the 47 pages of comments it attracted.
Secondary goal, if the chat happens, than imo, we have nothing to lose by burying Victoria in questions she does not want to answer and comments that she does not want to post. Also, if the chat happens, it become vital that someone besides Victoria gets to pick which questions she responds to.
I worry that if we let Victoria, have her corner of the WaPo, without holding her accountable, we lose. For me FDL’s spectacularly effective Plame coverage underlines just how fragile the blogs are and that they cannot replace the MSM.
I think Jane choose wisely in covering the trial, because it is such an obvious “pressure point” window into the train wreck that the White House is. Unfortunately, replacing the MSM or competing directly with them, is just not something this community or FDL bloggers, have the capability to do regularly imho.
OT, I think the 47 pages of comments that people left for Trial in Error might help Judge Walton excoriate Victoria and her law firm for jury tampering and shameless self-promotion. Victoria and her husband’s practice is positioned to SELL counsel to exactly the kind of people she mentioned in her article.
In a lot of instances, I think ignoring someone is a much better tactic. Knowing when to react and when to ignore is more art than science.
here’s the california oath’
personally, I would have no problem with my oath and a judgement against the law if I judged the law inappropriate
Sometime during the last few weeks of the trial I posted a comment that said it seemed to me that the defendent’s lawyers were defending against the wrong crime. I felt they were defending against “the leak” instead of defending against the lies. To me that in itself is a good indication that they are going for jury nullification.
Kiddo @ 29:
Yup. Darden blew it, per wiki. They had decided not to ask OJ to try the glove because it had been mangled, but Darden “made an impulsive decision on his own initiative to have Simpson try on the glove.”
As for Cochran’s line which looseheadprop discussed as being improper above @ 16.. per wiki, “it” was not the glove, but the prosecution’s case. So he was – in a sense – following the instructions of the Judge. Of course, he wanted the jury to make the conclusion that “it” was the glove.
“If I put this knit cap on, who am I?” he asked. “I’m still Johnnie Cochran in a knit cap … and O.J. Simpson in a knit cap from two blocks away is still O.J. Simpson. It’s no disguise. It makes no sense. If it doesn’t fit. If it doesn’t fit, you must acquit.”
mainsailset @ 30
He has had tougher ones with respect to potential jury nullifiaction. In the Abdel Rachman trial the most serious charges involved violation of the Sedition Act which had not been used by anyone in generations. Lots of folks think it is anti-democratic and should have been repealed long ago.
Plus the defendant was a blind old man who never touched abomb or un in his life so far as anyone could prove.
The defense said that Pat was playing the “thought police” and trying to criminalize dangerous thoughts and free speech.
Compared to that, this doesn’t look so tough.
Thank you Loooseheadprop
Is it possible for the prosecution to say in closing statements that this trial is a step in the ongoing investigation, since one of the charges is obstruction?
To me that would change how I would think about the defense talking about all those not interviewed or charged.
I also do not see nulification in the Libby verdict. I see no “shrunken glove”.
perris @ 33
I realize that. I was just making a general comment about the differences between small “everybody does it” and the seriousness of this issue and to not underestimate the intelligence of the average citizen when confronted with the evidence in this particular case subject.
IMHO, I cannot foresee a ‘not guilty’ verdict. I’m hoping for ‘guilty’ but preparing myself for ‘hung’. But the idea of Libby being found ‘not guilty’ seems remote to me.
perris @ 32
They take an oath that they will apply the law ONLY as it is given to them by the judge.
I don’t know, they impeached Clinton because he lied about a blow job. I think it’s a hard sell to argue that perjury is not a crime.
John Casper @ 35
Thank you John. I see the wisdom of your approach.
solai @ 43
Seconded.
looseheadprop @
44
I still have no problem with that portion of the oath versus my opinion on the law
unless the judge specifically carved an exclusion BEFORE I affirmed my oath that my opinion on the law would not matter..he would have to get my affirmation specifically that I would not judge the law, because according to my understanding I AM applying the law when I judge it
let me remind
thomas jefferson;
Oklahoma kiddo @ 29
Actually, I thought it was because OJ was wearing rubber gloves under the leather glove – which of course made it next to impossible to put the leather glove on.
Politburo @ 38
I’m not sure (and I haven’t read the entry) that wiki has this quite right. I watched those summations on TV. Cochoran had the glove in his hand when he said the line
Assuming Libby is convicted, what happens next?
I am guessing that in a month or two Fitz subpeonas Cheney and asks Cheney under oath if he directed the leaking of Valerie Plame’s undercover status.
This is a perjury trap as Fitz has no developed massive evidence that Cheney did in fact direct the leak.
Cheney has three choices:
1. Take the fifth – a political disaster.
2. Stick with his old story that he did not direct the leak – and fall into the perjury trap.
3. Tell the truth that he directed the leak – forcing the Supreme Court to decide on the legality of ‘insta-declassification’.
My wild conjecture is that while SCOTUS sorts that out, many months later Fitz again subpeonas Cheney. Cheney expects more questions about the leak. Instead Fitz goes for the jugular:
1. When did you learn that the Niger documents were forgeries?
2. Did you make efforts to conceal the origin of the Niger docs?
3. Did you demand that the ‘16 words be inserted into the SOTU?
blue e @ 40
You know, I like that theme. The answer is no, or more accurately “no, but”
There’s ways to work the idea in without saying so directly. And it does speak to the obstruction charge. It’s the “ongoing” part that he proabably can’t say
The defense is searching for that one Republican true-believer who is willing to drink the Bush kool-aid and spend eternity in the Bush wing of hell.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 41
Nor do I. However, Jefress was doing some kinda dance about the July 12 Judy Miller conversation being out and trying to get an instruction that made it sound like all the Judy testimony was out. I had a talk with marcy about this over the weekend. There is also something afoot with respect to the jury verdict questionaire, but the drafts are not in the public domain, so I am not clear on it, but I suspect it ties into this same “glove” thingy
18 froggermarch says:
February 19th, 2007 at 7:56 am
Love it! Sounds good to me!
LHP @ 50:
As I understand, Cochran said the line many times. On some of those occasions, he was holding a replica of the glove. He obviously wanted the jury to think “it” was the glove.
I think he followed the letter but not the spirit of the Judge’s ruling on directed verdicts. He came up with a clever way to reference the glove but still be able to make an argument that “it” was the prosecution’s case.
glove, schmove,
many more knowledgeable and experienced than I argue they lost the case by not asking for a change of venue at the onset (does the name Rodney King ring a bell Madam Prosecutor?!?)
and then proceeded to pour gasoline on the fire with Fung, Fuhrman and oh yeah, that glove
afterall, these were the same folks who brought you the travesty that was McMartin and Menendez
taking the fifth before a grand jury would not be a political disaster- cause no one would know that he did it.
John Forde @ 52
Cheney resigns. Bush pardons Cheney. Jeb gets the job as VP. The Bush Dynasty tragically lives on.
Badwater @ 60
cheney doesn’t resign unless;
1) fitz indicts cheney
2) the courts allow the trial to go forward, which is no likely since alito and roberts are in the administration’s pockets
Badwater @ 60
OK, I’m gonna have nightmares for week from that one.
two bucks says:
Libby found guilty
Libby stays out of jail pending appeal
Appeal lasts for over a year
Libby pardoned as Bush is on his way out the door.
WRT: Victoria.
TRex would say, “ATTACK!!! ATTACK!!!! ATTACK!!!“
And, any other questions, read “When I See You Cry, It Makes Me Smile,” downstream.
Great job lhp.
I think there’s a secondary, non-jury, audience that the summation plays to as well. Even if there is no jury nullification, the defense is seeking to pave the way for public acceptablity of a pardon, too, IMO.
So whether or not the jury does its job; if they public is left with doubts as to the fairness of Libby being singled out while Fleischer (who certainly seems to be contradictued by several journalists – both as to his telling and his not telling) and Armitage and Rove walk — it helps make the case for a pardon. So I think there will be at least two layers to the summation, fwiw.
If there really is anything “still to come” in the prosecutions, it will knock the wind out of the second layer. If not, that second layer will get hammered in the press well past the summations and a guilty verdict. Toensing is just an opening salvo.
cbl @ 58
Very true. The prosecution lawyers on the OJ case were all spectacularly incompetent.
Actually, more seriously. Does anyone here believe that Condi would have gone over Cheney’s head and cut a deal with N. Korea and kept Cheney completely out of the loop, if not for this trial and the humilations that it has rained down on the WH and especailly OVP?
Cheney is being frozen out. It is looking like Rice is going to be the new puppet master.
rwcole @ 63
I agree with all but the last. No pardon for Libby. Cheney is losing influence FAST. I don’t think he will be able to get Shrub to do it.
rwcole @
63
perris @ 61
I think that the Godfather, George H.W. Bush, is preparing to step on Cheney to save his son one more time.
It’s Presidents’ Day.
What have you done thus far to honor our noble Commander in Chief
_
Mary @ 65
If there is a second layer, and I think there may well be, the viabilty rests on getting a conviction in this case. I am working up a theory based on somethink Citizenspook wrote,a nd I’m gonna kick it arund with the folks at Plame House tonight and if it I decide I’m not crazy, write a post on it.
I think th e Spok may be closer to the truth than he realizes. Just maybe
rwcole @ 63
Safe bet, that.
_
LHP – I’ll disagree with you on the point that a jury finding someone “not guilty beyond a reasonable” doubt equautes to finding someone “innocent,” but is really akin to the “not proven” you cite above.
Also, and I know you are an experienced defense attorney and are writing for the masses, but you don’t state how often the “classic” defense summations are successful overall (or really how often the defense is successful overall regardless of the alleged persausive powers of closing arguments). It is one thing to admire a well crafted closing argument, it is another to state, or imply (which I think is what you are doing more than stating) that it often has the effect of swaying the jury to the defense’s position. Closing arguments don’t exist in a vacuum – they are limited by evidence, and they are counterbalanced by Judge and what the gov’t gets to say.
It may be more likely to have an effect on a trial than the idea of jury nullification, but still, the idea of the silver-tongued defense attorney pulling the lost case out of the hat isn’t the real world of criminal defense law either.
Not that a brilliant closing argument COULDN’T “save the day,” just that even if it is brilliant, it is unlikley to in most trials.
There was a story out a couple of days ago that both Sr. and Jr. were applying pressure on Jeb to run. Look out if mom (Babs) weighs in.
looseheadprop @ 68
Libby’s pardon may depend on Bush’s involvement in the Plame leak.
If Cheney acted with Bush’s explicit permission when he instructed Libby and others to reveal Plame’s CIA identity, then Bush will be inclined to pardon.
If Cheney acted without higher permission in the Plame leak, then Bush has less to lose by refusing to pardon Libby.
I wonder if Libby knows the true answer to whether Bush actually authorized Cheney to get the CIA identity out. It may be the key to whether Libby gets his pardon. If Libby isn’t sure, then it might incentivize him to cut a deal. LHP, would love to hear your thoughts on this…
Badwater @ 70
I beleive this to be the case…it’s the only thing that saves jeb as well
BobbyG @ 71
Not one goddamned thing. And he’s lucky to get that much out of me.
LHP, I have a question regarding a comment Jeralyn made in one of the Politics interviews. She said she didn’t think Fitz made his case regarding motive, but I thought I heard somewhere that motive was not something he really needed to prove in this case. I thought he only had to prove that he did indeed deliberately lie as opposed to just being mistaken on a detail or two. I thought the evidence that he lied was abundant since virtually all of the other witnesses were fairly consistent and he was the only odd man out and his story was not basically credible. What’s your take on this? I’m mostly concerned about the motive part of this comment.
I’m having a hard time seeing a hung jury on this case. I suspect that Walton will make them deliberate until hell freezes over.
As for Cheney, I agree that he’s losing influence, and he’s losing it fast. And it’s going to get worse for him. Mary Cheney’s baby is going to be a huge story, and they’re not going to be able to keep pictures out of the press. Rove has been trying to cut Cheney loose for a while now, and the Cheney baby is going to give him the ammo he needs to finish him off.
Badwater @ 54
IIRC, One such juror does exist. Pach described a 30ish man who reads neo-nut blogs and looks at one liberal blog once in a while. IIRC, Pach was wary of this guy. I think he was selected as a juror. I could be wrong.
looseheadprop @ 67
steve clemons has worried that there was a bargain wrt to iran:
hope this isn’t the case….
Before people drive themselves crazy with “jury nullification”, etc., remember:
1. They said Libby would testify. He didn’t testify.
2. They dangled Cheney as a probable witness. Cheney didn’t show up.
3. Five, count them FIVE, witnesses nailed Libby.
The high probability is that Libby’s going down.
And Walton doesn’t have to grant bail pending appeal while Bush mulls over a pardon. Walton can find the evidence on one or more counts to have been so overwhelming that he sees no real issues on appeal as to those matters and steps Libby back into the waiting arms of the marshals.
Which might make it harder for Bush to pardon him – an imprisoned felon perjurer. Just saying.
Murtha in Command
After 16 undistinguished terms in Congress, Rep. John P. Murtha at long last felt his moment had arrived. He could not keep quiet the secret Democratic strategy that he had forged for the promised “second step” against President Bush’s Iraq policy (after the “first step” of a nonbinding resolution of disapproval). In an interview last Thursday with the antiwar Web site MoveCongress.org, he revealed plans to put conditions on funding of U.S. troops. His message: I am running this show.
hackworth @ 81
Fortunately, he is not a juror or an alternate. He was struck from the jury pool (I think by the prosecution).
Evil Parallel Universe @ 74
Not guilty can = either innpocent or not proven.
I am NOT a defense attorney.I rarely represent criminal defendants except those wishing to cooperate fully with the government. I used to be a federal prosecutor.
I haven’t seen a great defense argument win a case in a vaccum. However, in cases, like OJ, where the prosecution put in a full prima facia case albeit a messy inartful one, a great defense summaton can capitalize on those prosecution mistakes and win the day.
Bush almost certainly knew what Cheney was doing- if not the specifics- then at least the general direction. Can’t see how that will ever show up in a court of law however. I doubt if Bush feels at all threatened by this mess. He’s got bigger alligators crawling up his backside at the moment.
Murtha and his ally House Speaker Nancy Pelosi were humiliated last Nov. 16 when the Democratic caucus overwhelmingly voted against Murtha as majority leader. Three months later, Murtha has shaped party policy that would cripple Bush’s Iraq troop surge by placing conditions on funding.
Ann in AZ @ 78
I think Ari’s testimony removed all doubt about motive. The fact that he wouldn’t talk without immunity tells you that he was worried about prosecution. The more the defense focused on his immunity deal, the more the jury had to think about the fact that he needed one in the first place.
I’m busy honoring Millard Fillmore.
lhp–
Great post and i agree with your response to rwcole that a pardon as GW exits is unlikely. As discussed here many times, it would effectively remove 5th Amendment rights from Libby and bush can’t afford that, because he won’t have time to pardon the subsequent criminal convictions against others.
BTW, my question in 18 above about jury nullification going “the other way” was rhetorical. I know it would set up an appeal if a foreperson actually said the things I had them say.
They can think them, however, can’t they?
rwcole @ 87
I guess the question is whether Cheney has evidence or paperwork of Bush’s complicity in the outing of Valerie Plame, such that he could pressure/blackmail Bush to issue a pardon. If Cheney doesn’t have this, then I see the likelihood of a pardon being diminished somewhat.
A hung jury is no great outcome for Libby. His defense is costing big bucks and totally consuming him. Libby is going to have serious financial troubles going forward and pursued this stupid plan at great personal expense. A hung jury keeps it all up in the air for another 4-5 months complete with news articles. Libby is going to serve any time at Club Fed. That kind of time is easier than this trial for him. Think of a hung jury as a fine of between 500k and 1.5 million and a jail sentence of 6 months with the option for more later. Fitzpatrick only has to convince one juror.
xyz,
thank you, thank you for that – had the same guy in mind last night when I worried aloud about nullification appealing to fundie sensibilities
*xyz @ 85
Thanks, for dislodging that bit. It had been hanging in the dark recesses of my cerebral cortex.
rwcole @ 89
…if only for having the geekiest name of any President in American history.
I do like the photo at the top. Particularly Wells’ mug.
Here’s another two dollar bet:
Fitz will NEVER go after Cheney.
bowtiejack @ 82
I’ve said before that I think it’s a real possibility that Walton will remand Libby immediately. I think it’s likely that he won’t stay out on bail for his appeals. They have seriously antagonized the judge, and I think it’s going to come back and bite them in the ass. If he’s convicted, does anyone know when the sentencing will take place?
cbl @ 94
Yes, I think we were all very concerned about that guy during jury selection. I made a point to keep tabs on him. He was removed from the pool, thank goodness.
EvilDrPuma @ 96
Hey, watch it! My great grandfather was Millard Fillmore!
Ann in AZ @ 79
Jeralyn and I disagree on this point. Although “motive” is not an element of the crime, you would want to prove it to negate the defense of “mistake”.
I think he did demonstrate it, I think it is clear that he was trying to prevent Fitz from finding out that Cheney was the spider at the center of the web.
Also, My understanding is thatJeralyn has not yet has an opportuntiy to hear the tapes of Libby testifying. In ways that would not show up on the transcripts, the tapes demonstate that Libby i lying. You hear it in his voice ans th elie becomes more evolved in each subsequebt testimony, his delivery becomes more assured.
The tapes are devestating evidnece
A hung jury can sometimes help the defense. As some argue, any delay is advantageous and a benefit to the defendant.
Frank Probst @ 80
If Iwere Walton, I would make them deliberate for ever too. who the hell would want to have to preside over the re-trial of this case?
Frank Probst @ 99
rwcole @ 98
-RW
You don’t think he is even now?
bowtiejack @ 83
Can you feel the warmth of my smile?
“Mideast summit ends with little progress”
I am absolutely in shock.
Badwater @ 60
Way too scary to contemplate, but unfortunately it has the ring of standard procedure for these criminals. Will Neil and Marvin get their chances to be President too? Can anyone think of anything as attractive as 32 more years of a preznit named Bush. Or maybe even more as the lazy chickenhawk twins would be old enough by then to help keep the Bus$h Crime Family in the Oval Office, or Mob Headquarters.
LHP –
1. With respect to not guilty, I think defendant’s are quick to say that it means innocent, but all the jury is charged with is whether the person is guilty of the charges “beyond a reasonable doubt.” They’re not asked to find the person “innocent.” Shorter me: innocence isn’t part of the equation of what criminal trials in this country are about.
2. OJ was a singular event, and very little (nothing for the most part) of what occurred in that trial was “normal,” or is extrapable to any other criminal trial. Johnny Cochran was a very good lawyer, but in that case he had a lot more going for him than a well crafted and presented closing argument.
froggermarch @ 91
Yes you can!
rwcole @ 98
first time I think I’ve dissagreed with you rwcole
I believe fitz was deliberately implicating cheney through the whole trial to set up his indictment
looseheadprop @ 107
It is a psychological thing, but once someone goes into jail and is pictured in the classic orange jumpsuit, the public’s perception of him changes forever.
If Libby is put in jail pending appeal, a pardon will come at a much higher political cost for Bush/Cheney.
Once the public sees Libby in a orange jumpsuit and/or handcuffs, the public will see him as a felon.
Until that point, Libby will retain some public benefit of the doubt.
rwcole @ 98
You’ve got the Corporatocracy/Mil.Ind. Media Complex and the clock on your side of this bet.
rwcole @ 98
RWCole.
Assuming a conviction in this case, I will take that bet. I will leave my 2 bucks with Christy to hold
looseheadprop @ 101
Add to that the fact that Libby didn’t take the stand in his own defense. I think the tapes were a brilliant move on Fitz’s part. The jury knows that, even with SEVEN HOURS of Fitz’s questioning already in evidence, Libby STILL can’t afford to take the stand and face cross-examination. In a perjury trial, that’s simply devastating.
perris
Hope you’re right- but I’m not holding my breath.
I’ll bet the average juror, once Fitz points out that the charges are not leaking but obstruction, can immediately see through the jury nullification gambit. I’ve got confidence in our fellow citizens.
Motive – I’m with LHP on that. Although I think that Fitz “proved” it not just with respect to Scooter covering for Cheney, but also simply covering for himself – whether he thought he had committed a crime in helping out Wilson or not, he didn’t want it to be known he was part of it.
loosehead- OK, You are on- it would be the best two bucks I ever lost!
looseheadprop @ 107
that would indeed be cute, however the winguts would use that as fuel to their fire and attack the judge
it would be sweet to watch though, man, you want to see someone flp?
give libby time without bail
flipperoo
I hope that point is made to the judge, he would have to use some wing nut terminology to shut them down before the open up the whurlitster…something along this;
“in the interest of national security, we can’t allow libby out on bail”
Dear Judge Walton:
If Libby is convicted PLEASE remand him to custody immediately. Otherwise he will probably start his new job as head wrangler at the Bush’s new ranch in Paraquay the next day.
DP @ 45
They, meaning a jury of his peers, did not impeach Clinton for perjury…some politians with an agenda impeached him for perjury. On the other hand, impeachment in that case was like a grand jury indictment. Clinton ultimately was not found guilty of the crime of perjury by the Senators, even with the blue dress as evidence. Apparently they didn’t think the perjury committed constituted a high enough crime or misdemeanor to warrant removing the President from his elected office.
Happy Birthday, Abe: Gallup Finds Lincoln Now Tops Reagan as All-Time Best Prez
http://www.editorandpublisher……1003547309
Another shocker? How could one possibly compare the two?
Frank Probst @ 99
Depending on backed up Probatio is, it usually takes a couple months to do a pre-sentence report. However, the defense has the right to put in a rebuttal submission and can ask for soemthing similar to a breifing schedule while it amasses letters and testimonials begging for mercy.
My rare criminal defense work is mostly focussed on working the Sentencing Guidlines criteria. We once got a 26 level downward departure for a client from a level 27 down to a level 1.
it’s a lot like doing a good college application, you have to put together a total package. many defnse lawyers really neglect this part of the process.I think they are so demoralized after the verdict….
Since I don’t defend criminal trials, I am not depressed and focus on my guidelines package from the start. My guy is pleading guilty, so I only worry about the terms of his ccoperations, My 5K1 letter and my guidlines package
Evil Parallel Universe @ 109
As far as formal reaoning, legal theory, and jury instruction go, you’re absolutely correct. However, my reading of public reaction to a verdict is that “not guilty” carries the emotional resonance of “innocent,” whether the general public believes the verdict to be valid or not. And it seems to me that this emotional resonance is exactly what a defense attorney manipulates in a closing statement when she/he tries to convert “beyond a reasonable doubt” into “ironclad certainty.”
Some of the worst things to come out of the OJ trial are named John Gibson and Mr. and Mrs. Victoria Toensing.
MarkC @ 117
I tend to agree. There were several moments in the trial where the defense had taken several hours setting up their smoke and mirrors, and Fitz cut through it all in seconds. His re-direct of Russert was masterful. His cross-examination of John Hannah made it appear than even Hannah had to see that his boss was guilty. And Fitz is going to be the last person to speak. If I were Wells, I’d have spent the long weekend hammering out my plea agreement.
“in the interest of national security, we can’t allow libby out on bail”
Awesome sound byte, Perris. You nailed it.
Ann in AZ @ 123
clinton had a judges ruling on his side
a judge had ruled that “sexual relations” included fornication
whether or not we agree with that definition, clinton was able to use that ruling as the basis for his statement
in addition, the senate was charged with deciding if that particular crime indeed rose to the level of impeachment
they are not bound by any notion against jury nulification
Doesn’t bail (upon conviction) get denied or rescinded if the defendant is a danger or am flee?
hackworth @
81
He was not seated in the final jury pool.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 123
The GOP has been comparing them by media saturation since Reagan left office. Probably before.
hackworth @ 130
takes a bow
I hope fitz reads firedog lake and includes it in his argument against bail
*xyz @ 105
The normal criterion for bail pending appeal is :
1) flight risk (same as for pre-trial bail)
2) likelihood of success on appeal
3) seriouslness of the crime (sma estanard as pre-trialbail)
Walton keeps saying let them overrule me on appeal and Libby doesn’t present any indicia of being a flight risk and the crime is the same level of serious as when pre-trial bail was set. I think Walton continues bail. I wold in his shoes. But maybe I’m just a softy.
Ann in AZ @ 122
What everyone seems to forget about Clinton is that he ultimately copped a plea (i.e. he confessed) in order to avoid criminal prosecution.
Evil Parallel Universe @ 110
Actually, I agree with you on both points.
Apparently they didn’t think the perjury (Clinton’s) committed constituted a high enough crime or misdemeanor to warrant removing the President from his elected office.
Ann in AZ, perhaps you forgot that Torture Boy was “selected.” Perhaps different rules (or no rules) apply to monarchs.
rwcole @ 120
This will be fun!
These are the elements of perjury under S. 1623
1. the declarant must be under oath,
2. the testimony must have been given in a proceeding before a court of the United States,
3. the declarant must have knowingly made a false statement and
4. the statement must be material to the proceeding before the court. United States v. Simone, 627 F. Supp. 1264, 1267-68 (D.N.J. 1986).
Motive isn’t one of the elements – although perhaps it is true that a jury would always want to know or understand “why” someone would knowingly lie about material matters beforea grand jury – i.e. the context of why lying.
perris @ 121
Wordpress did something weird withthe quote thiingy. That’s bowties’ quote, not mine
Oklahoma kiddo @ 131
should read “about” to flee. (Typos, etc. One of the dangers of taking a phone call from one’s daughter) ;0)
Oklahoma kiddo @ 124
The zeitgeist sucks lately. Reagan’s deeds and misdeeds hurt millions. People are misinformed. This is why RWCole may be correct. Cheney is super insulated by the zeitgeist.
looseheadprop @
135
Why don’t the criteria include the importance of the continuing investigation? This is after all an obstruction case. Can’t Fitz make an argument that immediate incarceration helps the prosecution by encouraging the convict to turn states evidence?
Oklahoma kiddo @ 131
Yep, but Libby has shown no sign of eing a flight risk that I know of, and the “danger” part refers to physical danger, like being a rapist or serial killer. It does not usually get applied to white collar cases like this one
The latest from big brain McCain:
McCain: Roe v. Wade should be overturned
Here’s a link to the actual United States Code defining Perjury:
Title 18 1623. False declarations before grand jury or court
oh yeah, bring that !
His Honor was the one invoking State Secrets Act to silence Sibel Edmonds, puhleeze I triple wingnut dare ‘em to smear Reggie
Completely agree.
For anyone who hasn’t had a chance, here’s a CSPAN link to all eight hours. IMHO, they are riveting. You can sense when, via Fitz’s questions, it dawns on Scooter what Cheney?, Martin, Addington, and others already told the FBI and the GJ. You can also hear Scooter laying everything off on “Russert.” Russert isn’t as important as the media makes him out. Scooter manufactured Russert’s importance with his clumsy alibi.
Evil Parallel Universe @ 140
Motive is one of the classic ways to negate the defense of “mistake” a/k/a the memeory defense
Watch the nested quotes for page margin control, please!
Back to my corner. . .
bottom line is this guys;
this case can’t end with a conviction, there has to be other indictments for any good to come out of this trial
libby is a nothing, convicting him of lying is a nothing to the wing nuts and they will deify him…they might even run him for president in 08
Coercive incarceration is only for people who refuse to testify pursuant to subpeona
[Mod Note; Please don’t nest more than 2 or 3 quotes. Thanks.]
Oklahoma kiddo @ 146
Flip-flopper sees Giuliani gaining traction sos he backpedals for the fundy vote.
John Casper @ 148
and here are the mp3s (GX1T, GX2T), so you can download them for your ipod.
hackworth @ 154
if cheney does resign, mccain to the vp’s desk with swift approval I might add.
then perhaps a bush resignation, who knows, then mccain makes nice to the dems for a few months and bing, the next president
As distasteful as I find Libby, I cannot see a reason to remand, pending appeal or sentencing, this defendant upon conviction.
Hi Lhp. If the Scooter is found guilty, is there a penalty phase to the trial?
Thank you.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 157
Thats the trubble wif libruls. They don’t go for the juggler. (rimshot)
perris @ 156
I refuse to be part of this nightmare. ;0)
perris @
134
Here, according to lhp’s comment (# 135) at 9:03 am, are the normal criteria for bail pending appeal:
1) flight risk (same as for pre-trial bail)
2) likelihood of success on appeal
3) seriousness of the crime (same standard as pre-trial bail)
ifthethunderdontgetya @ 158
Not per se This is not a bifurcated trial. There will be a whole Sentencing Guidelines process and a sentencing hearing which can include witness testitmony
off to the casion firedogs
see all L8ter
hackworth @ 159
I protest. I’m not a librul. I’m a radical left-winger. ;0)
looseheadprop @ 162
I’m looking forward to it!
LHP – I think we could agree that the “knowingly” element has overlays with the idea of “motive.” Though if someone knowingly lied just for the hell of it, the element is met.
Evil Parallel Universe @ 166
Oh, we agree. I think “motive” is icing on the cake on a direct case, it become simportant though when the defense of “mistake” is interposed
Mary @
65
Hope your horses survived the cold ok.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 156
Libby will not be remanded to custody, much as we’d all like it.
_
. . .and speaking of custody*g*
selise (82), lhp (67) — there’s a very strong chance that some meta-level machinations have been going on in the background that may have forced Cheney to STFU about NK, and could yet force this administration to STFU about Iran, although I don’t have a lot of hope about the later.
Iran sits on one of the world’s largest supplies of natural gas; they are using it as a bargaining chit in some sort of wicked chess game in Eurasia. The Chinese in particular are eyeing up every energy resource and may well be having dialogues with Iran, much to the chagrin of Russia. Russia has been trying to lock up all LNG across the continent, but Iran is large enough and independent enough that they can’t lock them down. Some of the posturing we see from Iran is just lousy blow-hardiness by Ahmadinejad, to the embarrassment of many of his people (gee, don’t have any idea what it’s like to have a national leader who’s only a meat puppet and a blow hard…). But some of the posturing is also to keep Russia from thinking they are to be trifled with, allows them room to negotiate with China, who very much needs energy and will not quibble like the U.S. or Russia will to get it.
China, meanwhile, holds a crapload of our debt; they only have to make clear their throat and demur a little and the markets here will take prompt notice. I suspect that there may have been some market signals we missed that encouraged the Bushistas to make nice with NK (in China’s backyard), and may eventually cause the administration to change its approach to Iran. If only China could do something in the marketplace to force a change in Iraq…
In my experiernce outright jury nullification is extremely rare. However, there is a form of quasi-nullification that is more common. What happens is the jurors are uncomfortable with the criminal charge and compensate by raising the beyond a reasonable doubt standard to such a high level it cannot be met.
Rayne,
I vacillate between comfort and terror at the prospect of China’s role wrt Iran ever since this hit the news
China Daily
Oklahoma kiddo @ 146
I don’t understand why the fundies fall for the Republican line every time. The Republicans had total control of the federal government for six years until now. Yet they did not outlaw abortion. Where was McCain? Where was the McCain ban on abortion?
Republicans have never wanted to overturn Roe v. Wade. They just want to use it, election after election, to heat up the fundies. It’s sad that it works every time.
Today i’m honoring Presidents Gore and Kerry.
looseheadprop – Thanks as always for a wonderful post and following remarks in the thread. Good to hear a hint of serious consideration of the citizenspook theory. From what little I understand it would be nice if it had merit.
Rayne – I am about to post a couple of tidbits in your blog, fyi…)
Great job, gang. I feel a conviction, bail, probable appeal, and further investigation of Cheney and others.
OT:
At the Virginia Democratic Party convention Saturday, Obama was the keynote speaker and attracted the biggest crowd ever — 3,500. His political souvenir stand also attracted the most interest. People lined up to buy $20.08 T-shirts and $5 buttons. At the next table, Clinton’s people were giving stuff away for free. (”She doesn’t need the money,” said the woman behind the table.) Asked if the John Edwards bumper stickers were free, the man behind that table shrugged. “No,” he said with a tone of discouragement, “but just take one.”
Rayne & others,
found these folks to be uncannily accurate on many of their calls on Big Oil and China – a handy reference
Asia Times
lhp, one of the many great things about FDL’s coverage has been that it revealed the stress that attorneys and the judge face at every moment in the courtroom. I have never heard anyone “object” during “closing arguments,” in a Law and Order episode.
John Casper @ 178
With good reason. It is very rare.
Rayne @ 170 and cbl @ 172
hmmm… that’s interesting… thanks for the thoughts and links.
Pups, I have to get on the road for my drive down to DC or I won’t be there in time for my evenig thread. Anything else you want, you can put on tonight’s thread. I think it is up around 7 or 7:30 ish
Catch ya later
Jury Nullification may be a bad thing in this case, but in general it is a good thing. It enables a jury to refuse to go along with politically motivated prosecutions. OklahomaKid (#8) asks if the first OJ trial was an example of jury nullification. I would say, ‘yes.’ The jury refused to go along with a prosecution which included lying Mark Forman who denied using the N-Word. Was this a good thing? Well, of course I would say ‘no.’ But I have seen jury nullification used to good effect to spare people from prosecutions under antiquated public morality laws and from just plain stupid drug laws.
Visit the Schapira log, What we know so far …
… and tell ‘em Big Mitch sent ya!
cbl — thanks for that link to the China-Iran deal; you can surely imagine what is going through the minds of the Chinese leadership with the obnoxious war of words going on right now. That’s not the only deal at risk with Iran, I’m sure, since Chinese demand for energy has grown exponentially since 2004.
The article in AsiaTimes, “Future shock: Asia is running out of gas”, along with the piece on currency manipulation tell the bigger story. I am wondering at what point China decides they’ve had enough and drops the hammer; I think they’ve been signaling, but somebody’s not answering here. Par for the course.
In the mean time, I’ve been moving investments into global companies and not those that are American per se, so that I’m not as exposed when the Chinese decide to spank the spoiled American brat…
I wouldn’t be surprised if the WH is hoping for a conviction. That has a controllable communications plan path. Acquittal opens the information floodgates.
Scotland is a “civil law” jurisdiction; not a common law jurisdiction. In other words, the law of Scotland is substantially similar to that of Continental Europe, but not similar to that of England, Wales and Ireland. One way of looking at the Bill of Rights is that it was an attempt to ensure that the United States remained a common law jurisdiction, rather than a Scot-style jurisdiction with inquisatorial, rather than adversarial procedures.
What about that Toensing asininity? Is there some likelihood that some juror(s) saw it? Will Fitz’s team have to say something about it in summations? Should they? [i]Can[/i] they?
Frank Probst @ 136
Frank, could you please explain? I must have forgotten too. I thought this all came out of a civil case, not a criminal action. If so, was the threat of criminal action for the perjury? And if it was, where does Perris’ comment at 130 come in:
What is the program for this week? Do you think it will be wrapped up and jury deliberation begin by Friday?
Ann in AZ @ 185
Clinton admitted that he lied in the civil case, and Robert Ray (Ken Starr’s replacement) declined to prosecute (which would have been a criminal charge, I believe). Clinton was subsequently disbarred. It’s archived at WaPo. You have to pay for the article, but the preview makes it clear enough: http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/wa…..p;date=Mar 7, 2002&author=Neely Tucker and Susan Schmidt&pub=The Washington Post&edition=&startpage=A.01&desc=Lewinsky Case Report Released
Evil Parallel Universe @ 166
Pretty much anyone in this group could lie just to keep in practice.
If there’s a hung jury and a retrial, I guess it’s fair to say that Wells wouldn’t get to influence voir dire by asking propective jurors about their opinion of Cheney since we now know he ain’t gonna show up.
Just one thing regarding any “Cheney resigns” scenarios and Bush appoints Jeb as VP.
Don’t forget the one little thing that is unique about the 25th amendment proceedings for appointing a new VP… BOTH houses of Congress have to confirm a VP appointment.
And since the House is strictly Majority rules, any VP nom will have to be approved by Pelosi. Now the Republicans in the Senate can threaten filibuster if they don’t like the nomination, but really, if both the House and Bush agree on a nominee, can Republican senators really have any moral standing on which to filibuster?
LHP: Where did you go to law school?
Linda2 @ 42
I look at it this way. Perjury is perjury, period. Lying to FBI investigators and lying in grand jury proceedings is lying, period. Obstructing justice is just that. The “severity” of what someone is lying about/obstructing isn’t the point. The fact that they did it was illegal, and it doesn’t matter if others were also doing it. This is Libby’s trial, not the trial of the entire Cheney cabal.
Everybody lies about having affairs. But because Bill Clinton appeared to lie about his indiscretions under oath, he may have perjured himself. Although it was nobody’s business who he was fooling around with, it still was illegal for him to lie under oath about it. If I were on a jury and saw no evidence beyond a reasonable doubt that he perjured himself, I would have voted him as guilty… even though it would incredibly stupid that he was brought up on charges about lying over who smoked his pole.
So, to me, the seriousness of what the lie was about doesn’t matter. You lie under oath, you’ve committed illegal activity.
I see the jury being potentially hung up on the issue of “did Scooter intend to lie”. As a juror, I’d weigh the evidence presented to determine if his false statements were intentional, beyond a reasonable doubt. Of course, the jury instructions might clarify how the jury should use this information to determine a verdict. My uneducated guess is that some juror(s) might question whether he really forgot about these conversations versus he was intentionally lying and obstructing. It seems to me that Wells did a good job raising some doubts as to Libby’s intent. (Does that rise to the level of reasonable doubt? Probably not… but so many juries seem to interpret “reasonable doubt” as “shadow of a doubt”). Can any of our legal eagles speak to this issue – does proof of intent matter?
I hope the cw about pardon is right, but I don’t really buy it. What scarey things will result from Libby losing his right to take the 5th as to the things for which he would be pardoned? And he’ll still have those rights on everything else– to date, I haven’t seen much interest in COngress for wanting to talk to Scooter and certainly Caspar Weinburger (or Nixon for that matter) isn’t a model of the dynamic that, post – pardon, COngress can go to town on inquiries.
I think if Libby goes to jail right away, it might almost make the pardon easier, bc he’ll have “served time” before it comes and lend to the “enough is enough” rightwing theme. Certainly, he can keep getting think tank$$post conviction/post-pardon and as Elliot Abrams shows (and I don’t remember him going in for a second round of investigations after his unrepentent convictions for fibbing and pardon), there are even possiblities to gov appointments.
I think it boils down to how lost the WH looks to Republicans going into 2008. If it’s lost anyway, imo Libby gets a pardon, like Abrams. Is lying to COngress that different than lying to a GJ? There’s a real, established pattern. I hope I’m wrong though. Heck, I hope that he is impeached as well, to prevent an Abrams situation (although I know there is that hemming/hawing over impeachment post-conviction).
Here’s to being wrong.
Answering my own question at 194: intent matters, according to what EPU posted above:
My prediction is that if Libby gets off, it will have something to do with the term “knowingly”.
(OT: I was distracted while writing that previous post, as an oppossum came out from under my deck. I’ve never seen one come out in the daytime. We have a good 8 inches of snow in the backyard, and he/she came out, tried to maneuver through the snowdrifts, drank some snow, sniffed around on the deck and came basically right up to my doorwall window, where one of my cats was extremely curious. Got a couple great pics!)
(OT: I was distracted while writing that previous post, as an oppossum came out from under my deck…
LandOfTheFree–
I think you found Cheney’s bunker.
Being convinced beyond a reasonable doubt is NOT like “important decisions” such as “buying a house” – any judge who gave an instruction like that is commiting reversible error!
froggermarch @ 18
Exactly! – Inverse nullificaton.
What is wrong with Fitz saying, “Look, we know Scooter here did not act alone, but he sure as hell did lie about it. If you want to get the REAL criminals in this case, just come back with a conviction on these counts. I have Indictments #2-5 right here in my pocket, and convicting Scooter here will allow me to get the REALLY BAD GUYS.
[end dream sequence]
Re: Cheney – no chance he will ever agree to appear before a grand jury. He will fake “the big one” before submitting to questions under oath. Fitz is left with having to indict a sitting VP, assuming he’s turned enough minions anyway, but the VP still has enough Executive Privilege firepower to quash any nasty summonses from the special prosecutor.
That leaves it to Congress to impeach the SOB, something this particular Congress hasn’t shown much inkling to do. The war criminal Cheney will not answer for his crimes until he meets up with Saint Peter – assuming he goes that direction.
Re: Verdict – anything can happen, though I put the odds as follows:
.20 convict on all counts
.40 convict on some counts
.25 hung
.10 acquittal
.05 last minute plea
Mary @ 195
Mary–
I think you raise the right question, but I think there are lots of scary things that could come from a pardon’s effect on Scooter’s Fifth Amendment rights.
There are any number of charges ranging from official secrets violations to espianage to treason to conspiracy that could still be brought by Fitzgerald or Congress against any one of several past or former members of the Administration. Let’s just take the possibility of conspiracy charges, for starters. If Libby were to testify truthfully on the matters for which he would have been pardoned–obstruction of justice, for example—istm there would be great risk for members of the White House Iraq group that his obstruction could be easily broadened to a conspiracy to obstruct justice.
The fact that the Congress so far has not shown a great appetite for investigation of this could easily change if the President plays the pardon card. His stonewalling on the subject at his recent presser was jarring and further Nixonian moves could let the Congress know it is politically unwise NOT to pursue Intelligence Act violations, misuse of security classifications and the Espianoge Act violations Fitz telegraphed in his original indictment announcement.
The other unresolved Constitutional issue is whether the plenary powers of impeachment would be compromised by the “cases of impeachment” exeption. In other words, if the President is part of the conspiracy and the pardon is an element furthering that conspiracy, it is unclear at what point in the process impeachment proceedings must be to trigger this exeption, or if the pardon can be nullified by subsequent impeachment processes. It is possible that the day of the pardon, a member of Congress could introduce an impeachment resolution and send the whole ball of wax to the courts.
The scariest thing for the Administration, though, is what they don’t know–the cards that Fitz may or may not be holding, and the extent to which Libby’s emancipated testimony might help him play those cards. That is why I don’t believe there will be a pardon.
GamePlayer: so you’ve got it as 65% odds that Libby will either be convicted on at least some count, or flip.
With the caveat that I’ve had to change my name from obsessed to depressed several times in the course of this mess, I just can’t see the jury not throwing the book at him. I put the chances of innocent on all counts at less than 1% unless something completely unexpected happens and mistrial at not much higher than that unless they somehow managed to plant a mole in the jury.
I hope I’m not a contrary indicator
rwcole @
98
FWIW Murray Waas writes in his latest piece (2-19-07):
http://news.nationaljournal.co…..907nj1.htm
Ann in AZ @ 79
My understanding is that motive is a factor in proving intentionality…but that because motive is something that is internal to the actor one can’t do anything other than establish reasonable motive. There may be several motives as well, a prosecutor doesn’t have to show that one is superior to another as THE factor. Was Libby’s motive to protect his own skin, or the Vice-Presidents? Was he influenced more by the fact that Addison gave him a copy of the IAIP Act or by reading comments in the paper above the punishments that could apply in the case?
If other evidence supports a case of intentional action then establishing motive is unnecessary. But if the other evidence is not probative then the motive may sway some jurors.
Some laws do require that the MOTIVE be clearly laid out to a jury…for example, in the Intelligence Agents Identity Protection Act the proseutor has to demonstrate that the exposure was not ONLY intentional, but that it was done to harm the security of the United States. That’s a very high, if not impossible, standard.
But in the case of perjury or obstruction of justice no such MOTIVE component is required.
Thaumaturgist @ 185
In addition, I wonder if a jury that determines a case “not proved” rather than “innocent” allows the Prosecution to re-enter charges on the same charge later. Does double jeopardy apply in that verdict?
A good prosecutor would point that distinction out to a jury…and say that THERE is the reason that US and other British Courts use a “beyond a REASONABLE DOUBT” standard. Once they determine that verdict the individual cannot be tried on the same charges again.
Thus the idea that “not proven” “innocent” is the same as “not guilty beyond a reasonable doubt” falls apart.
froggermarch @ 127
Didn’t Star Jones come out of the OJ trial too? What a hellacious list.
rwcole @
90
I’m busy honoring George Washington. As NPR reminded us, he was the guy who ordered decent treatment of all prisoners:
Makes Bush look small and tawdry by comparison.
Bob in HI
looseheadprop @ 67
If the “glove” fits…*g*
cinnamonape @ 204
So Victoria Toensing proudly beats her chest proclaiming in the WaPo that she after all, was instrumental in creating the IIPA law.
Let me see here…a former Reagan-appointed Fed Prosecutor, now full-time Repug shill and cheerleader for Scoots, luvs to take her some credit for designing a law where no one can ever possibly be prosecuted for betraying our country’s intelligence operatives.
Heckuva job, Vicki!
No way Libby’s bond will be revoked pending sentencing if convicted. He’s neither a flight risk nor a danger to the community.
lhp
I finally got a chance to read this. Wonderful, clear description of the scene & possibilities for tomorrow.
y’re gonna hate me – next to last line “its”
[Mod Note; thanks. Refresh and it should be fixed]
rwcole @ 98
Hmmm….I’ll take a dollar of that. After the Libby verdict…maybe the two.
cinnamonape @
205
I made a mess of 124. What I should have said was that as a Scot trained in English Law I found the Not Proven debate fascinating. I also wanted to tell you the Blair government, run by commercial lawyers and in thrall to the Murdoch press (sound familiar?) has got rid of the double jeopardy rule for serious crimes if new evidence arises. Only civil liberties freaks and thinking criminal lawyers complained. So don’t be too sure of the abiding benefit of a common law based system. It’s easier to fix politically. Have you heard of ASBOs?