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If Dan Froomkin's White House Briefing is correct today, President Bush has had a steeper decline in popularity even among his own prior supporters in the Congress than has previously been widely reported. To the point that speechwriters at the White House have allegedly been reworking the SOTU in order to take out lines that the rubber stamp Republican Parliament prior Congresses might have applauded as though a large light-up "applause" sign had been lit for the studio audience in prior years. Via Froomkin:
The most vivid symbol of the new order of things will be House Speaker Nancy Pelosi literally looking over his shoulder. With Pelosi's Democrats now in control of both houses of Congress -- and some members of the president's own party peeling off as he pushes stubbornly ahead in Iraq -- Bush will find his friends far outnumbered by his foes.
Yes, watching the greeting between President Bush and Speaker Pelosi and Vice President Cheney is going to be awfully..interesting, isn't it? Especially given the President's penchant for posturing, the Veep's tendency towards the public sulk, and the Speaker's ability to seem above the fray while putting someone back in their place with a withering glance. Ah, yes, this ought to be fun.
That it has taken this long for the cumulative effect of all of the missteps, overreaches, inadequacies and incompetence to catch up to the reporting on the public opinion and the elected officials' opinion, though, is a substantial lag from what I have been seeing and hearing in real time. (And headline of the day goes to the WaPo online: "Confidence In Bush Leadership Declines." Gee, ya think? Understatement, much?) And I'm curious to see if that has been the same for everyone else as well -- not just from folks who have disagreed with the Administration, but folks who have, up until even months ago, supported the Bushies, only to see that creep away from them, bit by bit, from Katrina onward, it seems.
Perhaps it's the result of hearings such as the Judiciary Committee hearing last week (see Digby's take on it, as well as Scarecrow's, Glenn's and mine). Perhaps it is the constant barrage of headlines such as "Twin Bombings Kill Scores In Packed Marketplace in Baghdad," months after we were fed the "last throes" and "Mission Accomplished" and "stay the course" malarky, over and over again.
But the overall reason that President Bush's popularity appears to be in freefall? Yet again it comes to the perception/feelings issue, in the WaPo/ABC News Poll (as reported by the WaPo):
Additional signs of Bush's weakened position come in responses to questions about his personal and leadership attributes. Forty percent describe Bush as honest and trustworthy, equaling the low point of his presidency. Barely a third think he understands the problems of people like themselves.
So much for that "person I'd rather have a beer with" question from the Presidential race holding up, eh? The bottom line: the more the American public sees of President Bush, the more they seem to loathe him. I dunno, sounds a little lonely for whomever is riding goatherd to me...
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Get well, Jane!
fitz!~ Christy! Jane!
O
Fitz!
(of course, you already are demonstrating that you are!)
Prof, you’re fast!
But, but, Al Qaeda in Iraq is planning to attack us? How can that be? I thought they could only follow us over when we left?
-GSD
LindyH @ 6
Yeah, and I actually read the whole post before noticing that nobody had posted yet.
Gee, you other folks are slow!
;-)
but seriously, we all would much rather have a beer with Jane (or Christy) than with Georgie.
NO zero (this site lied to me!!!!). But get well Jane.
Also I have another site complaint. It used to be you could rely on FDL pretty much to be a 2 floor house (upstairs adn down stairs) and everyone was mostly on one or the other). Now you got 3 floors with people, and everyone is going up and down between them. Far too much action for a Monday when some of us need to get to work.
And another complaint. The topics are too inviting. Friday PM I can deal with here, because i don’t know any of that music, so the discussion pretty much passes me by. But, this stuff is red meat.
Lt. Gen. Michael D. Maples, head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, recently testified that documents captured by coalition forces during a raid of a safe house believed to house Iraqi members of al Qaeda six months ago “revealed [AQI] was planning terrorist operations in the U.S.”
The plot was discovered 6 months ago.
But we waited to release the news of it until we were in really dire straits.
-GSD
Richmond at 88 — We’ll try to be more boring and frivolous for you. *g*
Speaker Pelosi: Shock and awe. I will brave a few moments of the SOTU to see the rose among the thorns when Nancy takes her seat.
I’d LOVE ta have a beer with Clusterfuck- if I had a camera with me!!
“Clusterfuck Falls off the Wagon HARD!”
Hi Christy! How was the trip to DC?
I guess it is was too much to ask for you to find a video of puppets singing “Lonely A$$H@LE”…. Goatherd is a nice second.
…according to documents that are the product of a secret room under the Ministry of Truth… same place where they come up with the color-coded Jeopardy props…
GSD @ 7
In fairness, I don’t think you can say his popularity is in “free fall”. From a physics perspective, you have to fall a good distance before you reach “free fall”. Bush’s popularity has been stuck in the thirties for months, so it wasn’t falling to begin with, and there’s just not enough room between the thirties and zero to truly reach “free fall”.
Christy Hardin Smith @ 10
OK might I make a few suggestions: from todays NYT: “Rush of entries gives 2008 presidential race an early intensity” or “CLock Ticking, Speechwriters for Bush Seek Perfect Pitch”
ya know, GSD, here’s the really scary one. If Homeland Sec was to give us a REAL terrorist alert, we would all probably be completely screwed. Who’d believe them now?
What? No shuck and jive from Bushie tomorrow?
He wants serious dialoge?
BWAAAAAHHAAAAAAhaaaahaaaaa.
Suck it, Chimpy.
His popularity ranks right up there with a fart in church right now.
I’d like to see Madam Speaker grab him by the ear and drag him off the podium to the woodshed.
What I am waiting for is Senator Webb.
MMMMMMmmm, Smackdown goodness , on it’s way.
Bustednuckles @ 19
SOTU followed by STFU
Pelosi’s OK BUT HER DAUGHTER IS A FUCKING MORON!!!!!
George W. Bush, the alcoholic I’d least like to have a drink with.
-GSD
Mack @ 20
That was beautiful.
George Will, in his criticism of House Speaker Nancy Polosi, suggested that she ..”What the House needs from Pelosi, however, is not rhetorical flair or scintillating thought, but statesmanship….”. I would like to return the message to Mr. Will in this manner….What the American people needs from Bush, however, is not rhetorical flair (no problem for Bush), or scintillating thought (miracles could happen) but statesmanship. When will Mr. Will and the RW pundits apply the same standards of excellence to their own???? When, if ever, has Bush exhibited statesmanship. When has he used diplomatic channels to solve disputes and disagreements rather than belligerent rhetoric or worse threats and actual military force?
Governor Dean is e-mailing for input on Webb’s reply tomorrow night to the SOTU.
Frank Probst @ 16
Terminal velocity, perhaps?
What George Will needs is a Sequoia tree up his ass.
stephennnn @ 23
I am debating whether this post or
SOTU then STFU (at 19) - is the best thought of the day. Both are pretty awesome.
George Will needs a blowjob and a hangover. Niether of which I’m willing to oblige him.
-GSD
Will’s actually pretty good at forkin Clusterfuck–He’s one conservative who I actually read.
Why? I read the article you linked. It seems like a film we all need to see. I don’t think she’s being an apologist for the millenialists.. she’s studying them, their beliefs and their strengths, including the lessons their way of organization may have for the rest of us… This is something we ALL should be doing, and we wouldn’t be nearly as screwed as we are now, as a party, if we’d read these warning signs and responded to them a lot earlier. If you don’t understand the opposition, you cannot possibly stand for anything, much less succeed.
David Ehrenstein @ 21
If he tries to give her a backrub, would a right hook be ‘unparliamentary’?
Inquiring minds need to know
;>)
David Ehrenstein @ 27
OK, spoke too soon. Let me add this one to the list of top comments.
Warner, Collins, and Nelson are just finishing talking about their resolution on CSPAN 3. They really seem unfocused, and the different portions seem contradictory. The main thrust seems to be to respectfully ask the President to reconsider alternatives. WTF? Hasn’t he already not done this? And they want him to look things over again, so he can do what? Not follow anyone’s advice again?
Warner says he would vote no for on the Biden-Hagel-Levin Resolution. Typical Republican. Doesn’t like what Bush is doing but would never vote against him.
They want more troops for Anbar to fight al Qaeda and foreign fighters. Hello, most of the fighters in Anbar tribal Sunni Iraqis. Anbar as I have pointed out before is a little smaller than New York State and larger than Pennsylvania. Think about putting a few thousand, even 10,000 more troops in Anbar. Their ability to secure and hold an area that size would be zero.
Frank at 16 — Okay, Mr. Mathematics, point taken. *g*
Redshift @ 26
No, same problem. He’s going to hit the ground first.
Hugh
One position that some are taking or at least flirting with is that we should clarify the mission of US troops- they can fight insurgents and Al Queda- but NOT engage in the civil war on behalf of either side.
The position has some logic.
You don’t need to eat it to know that it’s shit.
There’s nothing to “understand” about these creatures. The fact that she bought his line about Evangelicals having a great sex life is bad enough. That she’s “shocked” when what that sex life actually consists of is revealed proves she’s in the wrong business.
I would suggest a career in the fast-food industry for her.
As for “warning signs” the earliest was written by Nathaniel Hawthorne. He called it The Scarlet Letter.
Redd,
EPU’d in the previous thread … isn’t this haggling over peremptory strikes essentially a randomization question?
BC
Christy Hardin Smith @ 35
Can’t help it–I’m a math geek, too. :)
Somewhat OT..but Howie Klein has very thought provoking piece on Bush’s 33%ters.
http://downwithtyranny.blogspo.....icans.html
Frank Probst @ 36
As an architecture person myself, I think you have miscalculated. You assume that Bush has normal body weight. If there is nothing in that suit (skin) but duck feathers, it changes the whole equation.
To Frank Probst @ 36
You know it’s not the fall that kills you - it’s the sudden stop.
You guys getting this stuff about a reporter getting into see Devlin in Missouri and interviewing him under false pretenses?
If, during the course of the trial, the identity of the person who leaked Mrs. Wilson’s covert status. and who did it illegally, is testified to, what might follow?
Hugh @
34
With regard to “reconsideration of alternatives,” Senator Kennedy was eloquent yesterday in response to Timmeh’s question about Pelosi’s “poisonous” comment: Kennedy said that the President has taken more than two months to make up his mind, and that Congress is only asking for two weeks to evaluate, consider, and pass judgment on W’s proposal.
David Ehrenstein @ 38
I cannot disagree more strongly. Forget Hawthorne. For you, I recommend Sun Tzu, the Ancient Art of War.
BC at 39 — Essentially, yes. It’s a question of how the rule is interpreted in terms of whether the prospective alternates are immediately culled into a separate segment and/or part of the jury pool altogether and then randomly falling into the seats at the end of the process to then be struck or kept in the final strikes.
Richmond @ 42
Don’t forget the solid lead mass between his ears
Tuesday’s State of the Union Address should offer Americans compelling viewing. After the GOP’s electoral disaster in November and the resounding thud that greeted the “surge” in Iraq, the 2007 SOTU can be said to officially mark the last throes of the Bush presidency.
In anticipation of tomorrow night’s presidential flight of fantasy, here are 10 things to look for in the 2007 State of the Union:
1. An Unhealthy Vision
2. Surge Protector
3. Faux Iraq-9/11 Link Redux
4. Sacrificial Sham
5. Culture of Life Redux
6. Energy Shortage
7. Warming to Global Warming
8. The Spend and Not Tax Conservative
9. The New Bipartisanship: The Democratic Deficit
10. Laura Bush: Gang Banger
For more details, see:
“SOTU Preview: 10 Things to Watch.”
What are you? A CAA agent?
What do Nancy Pelosi’s daughter’s views have to do with Shrub’s non-speech?
Translation: is there a point to #21 and #38? Other than making that particular commenter look like a wingnut?
Okay, I just read Froomkin, and that’s the second time I’ve seen the “health insurance tax” proposal. Here’s something I never thought I say: I don’t think George W Bush is that stupid.
He’s stuck in the 30s, he just lost both houses of Congress, and his big idea is to propose a new tax on the middle class? I don’t think so. I think this is Karl Rove trying to lower expectations. Now the talking heads will all be saying, “In a surprise move, George W Bush did NOT advocate raising your taxes during his State of the Union address tonight.”
rwcole @ 37
Insurgents usually refers to Sunnis so a side would be taken. And how can a sharp distinction be made between al Qaeda, foreign fighters, insurgents, and native jihadis? Also not intervening to stop Shia death squads can be seen as sanctioning their actions. We are in the middle of a civil war and any action we take will aid one side or the other or result in both sides gunning for us.
Dissing Pelosi’s daughter makes me a wingnut?
Blub @ 49
Like a shuttlecock, only not as useful?
Mercifully, it’s supposed to be a short SOTU.
Really, how long does it take to say,
” You’re all fucked”?
Ya know, it’s possible the SOTU will be short tomorrow. I mean, normally, a SOTU is punctured by standing ovations every few minutes or so.. easily extending its length by 50%. Who’s going to be giving shrub a standing ovation this time?
Sally at 45 — Well, the charges in the indictment are with regard to Libby’s particular conduct in allegedly lying on multiple occasions to FBI agents and on multiple occasions to the Grand Jury while under oath and obstructing the case. So testimony about the leak itself is irrelevent to the charges that Libby currently faces — it is part of the back story, however, as to why the alleged lying occurred. And how that information is handled can constitute either motive or bright shiny object, depending on your trial perspective, I suppose.
You Guys at FDL just make my day. I had resolved to only reading his speach Wednesday morning but thinking about the cold reception he is likely to get makes me want to watch and see just how much chimpy squirms.
CNN …get ready for new al qaeda tape to coincide w/ SOTU
Christy Hardin Smith @ 48
Hokay.
With that clarified, the statistically appropriate solution is this:
(1) Pool the peremptory challenges for jurors and alternates.
(2) Conduct the strikes as His Honor has ordered (1 prosecution to 2 defense) per round.
(3) When the strikes are concluded, randomly select 12 jurors from the remaining pool.
As a technical matter, it would be easiest (and functionally equivalent) to select four alternates from the pool of 16.
Whether this ends up being the legally correct method, who knows?
BC
Blub @ 58
W is resigning tomorrow night. I got a leaked copy of the SOTU text, which in it’s entirety reads:
AUMF: “Adios, you m*thaf*ckas!”
rwcole @
30
True dat. He actually does offer reasoned discourse on occasion. He is still an uptight old fogie though.
-GSD
Sally @ 12
More like a rose among cow patties, if you ask me.
punaise @ 63
You are setting us up for disappointment!
Ohhhh, baby! Pelosi, all polished professionalism, dignity, authority and maturity, will be looking down on him during the SOTU. Could there be a more devastating graphic than that?
It must just *suck* to be Bush this week.
I hope the Democrats stand but not applaud him at all.
I know I would stand with my back turned towards him.
Chimpy will rain his little patented drop-seat-mouth smiles down on us, read the (carefully prepared) text, and then walk off as if he’d scored a touchdown.
rwcole @ 37
Will the teams be wearing different colored jerseys?
Maybe we should nickname Madame Speaker;
BUSHWACKER
GSD @ 64
The issue is that Will is a REAL conservative (like em or hate em). And what pisses him off (and too few others, alas) is that Bush is not - on the war, on the economy, and on intrusion in the bedroom.
“The position has some logic.”
Maybe in DC?
In Iraq, that “logic” is, you don’t know who the “enemy” is until they start shooting at you or set off a bomb.
These are completely unacceptable roe (rules of engagement) for our troops. Iraq needs police and legal institutions to disarm the militias. The US Army and Marines are completely unprepared linguistically or culturally to know who to disarm, much less how. It’s this kind of “logic” that reduces our troops to nothing more than inviting targets. When they are attacked, they can’t call in the artillery and air power that they’ve been trained to fight with.
This is why the US has the Posse Comitatus Act
David Ehrenstein @ 27
Judging from his performance in his last speech, I think he already has one.
Christy @ 59, thank you. Along with Libby’s conviction, I want to see the person strung up (figuratively) who outed Mrs. Wilson.
dalloway @ 74
I think you are mixing up your “Georges” ;-/
dalloway @ 74
Will the jury be Sequoiastered?
David Ehrenstein @ 38
I’m trying to figure out if Haggard made the sex-life comment before or after he was outed. The article is unclear. Either way, it’s bizarre stuff.
twolf1 @ 61
A new tape from the guys in the basement in … where does Cheney hide his disinformation-and-distracton team? The timing on these things is so convenient for the maladministration, isn’t it? How long will it take them to catch on that we’ve stopped believing them, or even listening?
I’d like to see Bush get a good old fashioned Vaudeville style peppering of rotten tomatoes, lettuce, eggs and fruit.
That would warm the cockles in my ah, er…
Wherever my cockles are.
-GSD
twolf1 @ 61
Skyrocketing terror alert to follow…Flocks of missing white women bedevil America’s news leaders…Swarthy gentlemen with suspicious shoes and unshaven ears seen to board hapless commuter craft…Latest Al Qaeda Number 3 employee of the month sends video ‘fungoo’ to America via al-Jazeera…Price of Cheetos skyrockets, pundits blame insurgency on Pringles…
;>)
P J Evans @ 79
there’s also this: Details Emerge About Possible Terror Threat
mandrake @ 65
You are not talking Turdblossom here.
Richmond @ 76
George Will ALWAYS looks like he has something prickly up his @$$. But I think it’s a Bush.
sofistic @ 83
Good one!
OffT:
Who will rid W of these meddlesome IGs?:
Be nice to see Melanie get some Countdown time this evening in the midst of all this pre-SOTU cable blather. Is it just me? Or do the cablista seem to pour on the pre-analysis in inverse proportion to actual Chimp speech content?
…oh, and:
Troops
Home
NOW
He made it before.
Look, let’s be absolutely clear about this. Religion is the worship of death and the incitement to murder. ALL religion.
It’s “leaders” are liars. They are not to be trusted from here to the door much less with teaching your children. As for religion’s “moral authority” it is a complete self-aggrandizing fantasy.
Shock and Awe - The You Tube version.
It’s a satire.
CNN - Cafferty’s questions of the day:
respond here
David Ehrenstein @ 87
I believe what you are stating is a matter of opinion, to which you are entitled.
I would hope that as in soccer and basket ball their socks also have different colors, in case they are in holes in the ground with their legs sticking up.
re David Ehrenstein @ 21
your right, she’s a twit. Let’s hope her mom is more savvy about the world.
But to the point, this SOTU speech will probably be tinpot’s last. During this next year, Iraq and the working man’s economy are going to roll off a cliff. They will carry tinpot’s approvals below the magic ‘25′. By July even the MSM will be saying he can no longer govern and we will be hearing ‘R’ word everywhere. The only thing that will stave off his ouster is finding a repub that will take the job and that the people have any confidence in.
David Ehrenstein @ 38
Ah, yes, but we can learn a lot from them: they are well organized.
Maybe that’s where the mythical Gay Agenda ended up.
Maybe a Colbert in the audience will pepper Rich Little with tomatoes and eggs when he bows down to his Great White Father at the Press fete.
GSD @ 80
don’t forget the hooked cane
Bush may have snookered the country into thinking he was the guy we’d all like to have a beer with, but the country seems to have finally wised up to the bullshit act. In the fact, I bet most now recognize that he’s a witless prep-school dilettante pretending to be from Texas, but who would otherwise disdain having a beer with us.
What I am stating is a matter of fact.
Frank Probst @
53
Well, I suppose it’s possible this is just Reaganish head fake, but, after six years of them constantly pushing the envelope to appeal to their base, nothing surprises me any longer.
Bush could show up in pink tights and a tutu, and the first thing that would come to mind is that he intends to cut the grants for the arts….
Only those who drink Coors.
punaise @
77
If Cheney comes to Libby’s rescue, does that mean Scooter will be Zorroastered?
Just an observation for a little horrifying perspective, which is not original to me but I can find nobody to credit (I have a feeling int’s Greenwald’s but I can’t seem to find it)…
After losing an American city, blowing half a trillion dollars and 3000 lives in Iraq, running up wrecking deficits, seeing North Korea defiantly build nuclear weapons, spying on Americans without a warrant, and smearing all Americans with torture at Gitmo and Abu Ghrain, George W.’s unfavorables are now almost as low as Al Gore’s.
Gore’s offense, of course, was to be VP during a time of unprecendented peace and prosperity.
If that’s not an indication of a structural problem in the polity, I don’t know what is.
A majority of the public aren’t looking forward to the chimpster’s nauseating 2007 State of Denial Address. Still S.O.S. to me. After Bush’s interview on 60 minutes and Jim Lehrer’s show and his press conference about sending more troops to Iraq, Bush is pretty much deaf ears to the public and sealed his name in the history books as the worst President ever. And he waits until now to discuss global warming in his SOTU when he chose to ignore the scientists, environmentalists,and Al Gore and alter the findings on global warming. Instead, the incompentent ass President decided to make fun of this issue by saying global warming is warming the globe. I am not holding my breath on any miracle speech from the chimpster.
The bottom line is the stay on the asses of Congress, sign those petitions, and demand the troops to come home.
GSD @ 80
Need to be respectful of the POTUS.
Take a cue from the Brits and give him the slow clap.
Professor Foland @ 101
A central reason for this is the MSM who has promoted all this garbage for the last decade plus - As per discussions in Pach’s post earlier today.
David Ehrenstein @ 97
It is not helpful to lump all religions & denominations together in one pile. Not only is it unhelpful, it is hurtful and insulting to persons of faith who do not wish to be associated with the likes of Haggard and other fundamentalists.
snoey @ 103
I’d rather see Ann Coulter give him slow, dripping clap. Then I could believe in cosmic justice again.
montag @ 105
Wait are you saying Coulter gave Justice Clarance Thomas the clap! THat is aweful!