
(Photo found via Needlenose.)
The US has quietly moved to take on the Mahdi Army as a preperation for the surge. Thinking in CENTCOM has been for some time that Sadr is a factor which can be isolated and dealt with.
This is the kind of mistaken thinking which will result in a MASH-like stream of helicopters to the Balad CASH, with wounded Americans being treated and shipped to Germany. The US has long underestimated the power and appeal of the Sadrist movement, of which only one part is the Jaish-Al Mahdi. The Sadrist movement feeds people, cares for them, and there isn't a chance in hell a "unity" government can replace that.
The arrests are a foolish attempt to decapitate a movement with multiple leaders and vast support. The fact is that the Iraqi Army is so infiltrated with Madhi Army supporters, the odds of them turning on US troops is high.
The US is trying to do this like Fallujah, but this isn't Fallujah. The Maliki government cannot survive war with the Mahdi Army and may decide to turn on Bush when they realize what their alternatives are: A dead Sadr is a martyr, and more trouble than a living one.
What Bush and his generals don't seem to realize is that they are outnumbered and outgunned. You can call in the AC-130's, but dead children don't earn support. The people of Sadr City can turn that place into a killing field which would make Ramadi look like a vacation home. While Sadr doesn't want a fight, his people also reportedly handed out grenades to the homes. Imagine that lunacy, you break into a home and grandma tosses a frag at your feet.
But the real problem is that Sadr isn't the enemy, but the way out of Iraq. Any deal to leave Iraq needs to be brokered by him, so we can drive south. The fact that we think we can beat him, after being unable to deal with the far weaker Sunni guerillas, proves the level of delusion in Bush's war planning.
Sadr is the main power in Iraq, not Maliki or the puppet goverment.
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Fitz!
Woohoo! It’s been a long time since I got the Fitz
looseheadprop @
2
a Friedman? (or is that a Bremer?)
congrats, lhp!
(and somewhere an unborn zed waits….)
Bush continues to be an idiot…
Who is running this insane war?
OldCoastie @
5
. . . and Gilliard continues to be brilliant.
TeddySanFran @ 6
This is an easy one: No one.
Great Bremer’s Ghost! What a horrid idea!
McCain’s war is likely to reach greater depths of tragedy if this ’strategy’ is pursued.
Steve — it will be interesting to see whether the US arrest of the Sadr spokesman was just a warning — to send Sadr into hiding — or is the beginning of a major push against his militia. I thought the neocon plan explicitly warned against taking on the Mahdi Army at this time and also warned that the “surge” levels of troops were not enough to simultaneously deal with Sadr city and the Sunni/mixed Sunni neighborhoods that they set as their first target. Kagan warned that if they got into a fight with the Mahdi Army, it would undermine their efforts to pacify the Sunni neighborhoods. So what is the US thinking?
These are the same people who thought that hanging Saddam and ripping off his half-brother’s head would somehow bring the Iraqis together. After that didn’t work, they’ve decided to try smashing down people’s front doors and stomping through their living rooms. Shooting all of the puppies can’t be far behind.
This little piece is refreshingly clear sighted.
I’d feel better about this if your previous postings hadn’t been so right about what happened.
TeddySanFran @ 6
Iraqis Bush defeated in 2003
scarecrow @ 11
THAT’s their thinking? That’s like arresting a Vatican spokesman to try to turn Italians against the Pope. And it’s likely to have similar results.
TeddySanFran @
6
Ghost Saddam and his Undead Zombie Army.
Oh, wait–you mean on the US side? Nobody. Mostly just inertia.
Wet clean up line one…
Supply lines of Preparation H in jeopardy…
(Mod: Why do I have to be the troll?)
al Sadr loyalists in the South have been battling the British all along. They recently took 5-6 out in an incident. al Sadr stopped a spontaneous uprising of his supporters back in 03 or 04. He has widespread support. One of the potential catastrophes is that support cutting off resupply lines for our troops. Virtually all roads go through ‘their’loyalty territory at some point.
Nancy Pelosi please start the process of impeaching these dunderheads.
I imagine Sadrists are dispensing grenades and other weapons perhaps not so much for Grandma to toss, but for fighters when they scramble house to house and ask Granny what she’s got for them to use. Widely dispersed weapons in the neighborhood also might make it somewhat easier for unarmed fighters to travel unaccosted.
I read somewhere that Kurds in the Iraqi army are defecting in anticipation of a Sadr City battle.
According to an article in the WaPo, Sadr has prepared for this crackdown, with a monthlong plan NOT to fight back. Militarily, that is. Religiously, on the other hand . . .
And what is so holy about Muharram? From Islam.com:
Oh great - we’re launching a crackdown during a monthlong period dedicated to the memory of a holy martyr! What a good idea . . . if you’re looking to create even more glory for the new martyrs being created.
Does anyone in the Bush Administration even have a clue about Islam?
Has anyone at the DOD thought about doing something like setting up drinking posts as a tangible statement of respect for the community? I’m guessing not.
Muzzy @ 21
The Kurds had invited some Iranian group(s) in to help and the BushCo staged a military raid, seizing computers and officials. My guess is that would have been a counter to al Sadr because the opposing Shia/Iranian force is al Hakim, and I’m guessing it might have been that alliance for assistance.
I really think to have any hope for getting out of this (a major diplomatic solution involving each of the regional powers) we need to start by removing shrub. There is no way Congress can force him to sit down at the table and earnestly talk with Iran, Syria, etc, and there’s no way, short of genocide, that we can fully (or even substantially)) withdraw without a diplomatic solution. Catch-22. The process of fixing Iraq starts with two resignations and a swearing-in ceremony.
Bush thinks he’s an analog to Henry II (that’s assuming he knows who Henry II was - a big leap I admit).
“Will no one rid me of this meddlesome priest?”
Unfortunately he doesn’t know what happened to Henry after that.
Could excommunication be compared to impeachment? Too much of a stretch I guess.
Good analysis by Gilliard.
President Pelosi sounds damn good to me.
I agree so much with your post. Let’s face it, our military leaders are nut-cases. Is anybody checking IQs at West Point?
I took it as a given from day one of The Decider’s announcing his “surge” that he would move on Sadr.
Problematic.
The force required to crush Sadr’s Mahdi Army will necessarily entail huge “collateral damage,” and these cats have surely not been just sitting around waiting for the surge. I agree, we are likely outnumbered and outgunned here. We wil have to resort to large scale munitions, with all the counterproductive tangential destruction that such tactics entail.
Israel thought they were gonna take out Hezbollah last summer, too. Look what happened to them.
_
The impression is that events which will unfold not long from now, have probably already been decided upon by the Bush creeps.
karnak12 @ 25
you guys have it all wrong;
bush is a dispensationalist…a person that thinks armageddon is a good thing and will do whatever it takes to make the event occur in our life times
bush is trying to break our army, he’s trying to destabalize the world, he’s trying to make it so our only option is nuclear
do not believe he thinks we can win for what he really believes is that he can make it so we can’t win
this is where we are today
President Pelosi has a wonderful ring to it. But Hillary won’t allow it.
Muzzy @ 21
that came for McClatchy papers: See this.
squirrel hiller @ 26
Damn sight better than President Hillary…
The London Times pegs her:
Great job Mr. G. Just read this so maybe I’ll go off to bed.
karnak12 @ 25
Bush thought Condi was Henry II.
Some argue that Thatcher was a Reagan toady, as is Blair to Bush.
Irons @ 27
Not all of them. The best of them struggle with the dilemma of trying to implement a strategy ordered from on high that they know has little chance of success.
Rock, meet Hard Place.
Thanks so much Steve, great breakdown.
I’ll try to Spotlight it to the NYTimes and the WaPo when I get a chance.
Irons @ 27
you’ve got it wrong
the military was against the invasion of Iraq, they were against the occupation, they are against the surge
they are against the policies of the morons making military decisions
yet they are the military and they will follow our leaders orders no matter ho depraved
Muharram was featured in Newsweek or Time last year or the year before. The Shiite men are shirtless and bloody from self-inflicted wounds. This was one of the religious activities that had been illegal under Saddam. (So, at least they got that.)*Snark*
Steve, although you ascertain herein that these Sadr City Shiites are tougher warriors that the Sunni guerillas, is it not true that by and large the Sunni’s (whom are true arabs)are fiercer warriors than the Shiites (Persians)?
Everything happening in Iraq screams out for a leader.
Is there anything in the Idiot’s history that faintly whiffs of leadership skills?
Anything?
OT - or not . . .
Think Bush and the NeoCons aren’t looking at Cuba after Castro? Meet the new head of the Republican National Committee . . .
Choosing Martinez, knowing it would generate controversy, tells you a lot about priorities at the White House: gotta be ready when Castro dies.
oops on 33:
“Great, DA-notices” above was my add-on (in the wrong place) - NOT the London Times.
One can always wish, however…
Oklahoma kiddo @ 36
An English woman expressed to me this exact sentiment, yesterday.
rizbiz @ 41
embezzlement?
OT, but from a very recent Amato email- a request- light a candle for Jane, here
perris @
30
Careful about the all inclusive “you guys”. I have my own opinions that don’t necessarily coincide with anyone else here.
I do agree with you as to where Bush is going with this “nookular” option. What I’m waiting for is the terrorist act that takes place inside the US, whereby Bush can declare martial law and shut down the net.
On March 11, 1967 I was wounded by freindly fire during an intense fire fight between my platoon of the 9th Infantry Division and a main force unit of VC in the Mekong Delta. My platoon was down to 27 men and we lost 9 KIA’s and 7 WIA’s. I spent the next 13 moths in Army Hospials in Saigon, Japan, and El Paso Texas. When I arrived at the Hospital in El Paso there were only six patients who were Vietnam casulities. When I left the hospital eleven months later 220 WIA’s from the Tet Offensive were being admitted.
The Battle for Sadr City will be the Tet Offensive for the Iraq war. Not a single member of Bush’s Neocons who caused this tragic war has a battle scar or a purple heart.
Why do I think things are in motion and there’s no stopping them? Iran, possibly Syria are next. Then a regional war. And from there…?
I don’t think shrub’s motivations or lack thereof matter anymore… only the resolution to the disaster in which we find ourselves. This means, IMO, presenting compelling evidence of criminal misconduct on his part or on his watch, the forcing of his resignation, and the convening of an international multilateral peace process in Iraq, on the authority of a president whose name is neither Bush nor Cheney.
karnak12 @
47
this quote must be raised with each discussion concering the war when a democrat is in the media
Kirk Murphy - I left you an EPU’d comment at 161 in last thread.
BTW how did the demonstration go? Was that today? Down here I get confused (I also get confused up there, oh well.)
karnak12 @ 47
I see your point. A consideration is there’s lots* of commerce and free enterprise on the internets* that won’t want the net shut down. Lots of rich and powerful republicans such as ebay, banks, credit cards, utility co’s, etc. They would pitch a fit - free markets*, etc. Can’t hurt the free markets.
*Bushisms
Oklahoma kiddo @ 49
the neo cons are people like abu gonzales, with the unmitigated gall, telling us “even though the constitution says habea protections can not be rescinded, the constitution doesn’t say people have habeas protection”
there is no shame, there is no rhyme, there is no reason, they say whatever it is they want to say
hey, does anyone have the quote where someone said there is no constitutional right against government search?
I think that was abu also but I can’t be sure
Oklahoma kiddo @ 13
And a little peace would be even more refreshing . . .
Blub @
50
I didn’t say that. I just quoted what perris@30 said. The only way anyone will be able to call Bush to account for any of this starts with the Dems currently in congress. As things stand now, I don’t see it happening. Too much “triangulation” don’t you know.
karnak12 @ 47
shut down not only the net, shut down congress, the supreme court, any oversite…get ready for the one and only presdident we will ever have again
perris @ 39
Correct on points 1 thru 3. We’ll see about point 4, but I certainly hope you’re right. Any alternative I can think of is worse. The civilian part of the government has to stop this war, because it’s the part that’s in charge.
Watched war movies with my bodyguard yesterday evening, while Ms. ET and ET Jr. are away at a ski meet.
Watched “Apocalypse Now” for the first time in 20 years. What a movie! The scene which ran through my head as I read Steve Gilliard’s rational assessment above of the irrational was the one where they destroy the South Vietnamese town on the beach so they can get the PBR into the river. And surf.
Pretty much the same sort of clusterfuck emerging in Sadr City. Except - no waves.
Valley Girl @ 46
BTW, I did this, because I thought that a request from Amato C&L (Jane’s great bud) indicated that it was something important to do. And, I don’t see him as a “sentimental guy”- but what do I know?
Ralph at 48 - I know William Beaumont Army Medical Center in El Paso (Ft. Bliss) from when I was a student and having the opportunity to rotate there for surgery. It gives me pause to think of the history and stories of the lives that passed through there.
Muzzy @ 61
hackworth @
53
That is a consideration. My hope is that it is enough of a problem for Bush such that he can’t arbitrarily shut it down just because he “wants” to. But he’s rapidly approaching the point where he feels he’s not accountable to anyone except the voices he hears coming out of the ether. And that’s not the ethernet.
Apologies for the zigguraut.
VG - the Amato request is lovely … that’s a pretty special site!
I was startled to see Br. StendlRast as one of the originators … I used to participate in a worship community with him years ago and was very moved by his work then … how nice to see him working with a global team to provide such a lovely form of meditation for our friend.
ET- I just can’t watch war movies. “Full Metal Jacket” was the last for me. Real life is enough to deal with. But, I hope your recovery is progressing. All the best.
We’ve got some VERY bright people in the US Army and other services- bold- bright- and personable… Trouble is- they’re the most political people on the planet- they know that their career’s hang on the chance that a Secy of Defense or a deputy notice em and fall in love.. Harlots for the White House!
petedownunder @ 53
Linear Root…
LMAO
…and a good thing, too, after today’s demo. the outreach seemed a tad thin - maybe 300 pro-choicers [400 in my dreams]. We met around - oh - several thousand visitors from the coat hanger nation.
two years ago was much more fun - a very robust reception for our theocratic guests.
I was pretty confused today, myself - kept wondering where all the SF progressives were. Pitiful.
Valley Girl @ 60
I lit a candle a couple of days ago (kudos to Renee in Ohio for pointing it out in the first place) but it’s been more than 48 hours and my candle has gone out so I lit another one. It’s a beautiful idea but you really do have to keep going back every couple of days.
Valley Girl @
46
Done and thanks! Once I figured out the roadmap I sent an invitation along to my friends outside the FDL family who are familiar with my love and admiration for our fearless founder. FWIW.
Thanks Steve for bringing things up to speed.
I read somewhere a while back that Bagbad, having existed for a long, long time (more than two hundred years) is a virtual maze of not only streets and alleys but it is interlaced to a mind boggling extent by a system of underground tunnels and catacomb like vaults which would put the Vietcong tunnel system to shame.
I imagine this would make urban warfare in Sadr City a nightmare of unspeakable complexity. Way worst than Hue
Sock puppet Lieberman going off at Opinion Journal.
Yes Emperor…
Perhaps Lieberman should defer to those more experienced colleagues…
Holy Joe don’t surf.
But the real problem is that Sadr isn’t the enemy, but the way out of Iraq. Any deal to leave Iraq needs to be brokered by him, so we can drive south. The fact that we think we can beat him, after being unable to deal with the far weaker Sunni guerillas, proves the level of delusion in Bush’s war planning.
As casualties mount - and this might start getting grisly - I’m looking for the media drumbeat to blame Iranian intervention for our failure to make an impact on the Sadrists. Actually, they’re already starting to do just that, blaming the Iranians for the recent upsurge in infrared-controlled IEDs:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories.....5951.shtml
So, the more casualties, the more hype against Iran. Watch it happen, doggies……..
The “Independent” explains where the infrared-controlled IED idea actually comes from - the IRA!
http://news.independent.co.uk/.....320004.ece
just got a call from Jane - she sounds sooo good! and is promising to get some sleep now!
just lit a couple of candles for Jane….
..and now for something a little different.
jeffreyw @ 75
Jaws with Paws!
Not trying to hijack the thread, but I just got back from visiting Jane, she looked pretty good, had a big smile on her face.
Siun @ 73
Thanks Siun - Woo Hoo - good news!
persiflage, newspaperbrat- Thanks! Yes, I noticed the 48 hour thing. Again, I can’t help but think that this is important, just because Amato asked.
Siun @
73
She was nodding off while I was there, very cute, actually.
SteveAudio @ 77
Thanks, Steve. Did you adjust the track lighting?
I would love to have someone knowledgeable do a series of posts on Israeli politics.. The best and brightest Israelis detest the politics of the country- which is increasingly being run by orthodox jews who are uneducated- don’t work- and are being supported by the state- they hang out on the street corners and wail for blood- and they also reproduce at a fiendish rate- they’re the fundamentalists of Israel- and they’re WINNING!
It’s also a grim forshadowing to hear about grenades in particular being being dispensed. They are a lot easier to hide from soldiers attempting to clear houses the first time through and they are versatile for use in booby traps when no one is even home. It’s madness.
what say you rwcole? Are the Sunni’s (true arabs) fiercer warriors than the Shiites (Persians)? Do you know if its true that the Shiites(Persians)are semites?
For TRex:
Police match image of Litvinenko’s real assassin with his death-bed description
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/a.....77,00.html
(h/t HuffPo)
Valley Girl @ 81
Actually the lighting was very subdued, so no, I didn’t.
Sheesh.
hackworth–Don’t know much about that- but I think that if ya put it into logical form- it would be somethin like- “Most persians are shiites- but not all shiites (by a long shot) are Persian!
Interesting interview with Sadr here:
http://darkmirror.blogspot.com.....dr-by.html
Jane must’ve been born with fire in her belly- sometimes it probably gives her INDIGESTION- but most of the time it keeps her moving and keeps her alive–I feel good about her prognosis. A little piss and vinegar doesn’t hurt anyone- break a leg Jane!
SteveAudio @ 86
Sorry, no offense meant. I missed the origination of this, and RGB had to explain to me why he kept saying this in his comments. RBG’s translation was - hetero version of “I luv you man”.
Valley Girl @ 79
I think there were a lot more candles a couple of days ago. Watching candles lit for a friend go out might be a tad depressing. I’ve put reminders in my calendar to go back every second day until Jane eventually gets the all-clear.
Valley Girl @ 90
None taken! It’s actually all quite funny.
Piss and Vinegar only hurts when you turn it internally- against yourself- so if yer doin that Jane- STOP IT!
Just a side observation on war news.
I can’t remember where I read it, but it was an author writing about how different men and woman would speak about the ruins and destroyed buildings in Europe after WWII.
If he asked about a particular ruined building, the men he asked would invariably recount in minute details what particular weapons (and their calibre) had been used in the deed.
However, the women he asked about the same building, would invariably recount the family members who lived in the house and who they were related too.
Here’s the funny thing about Cancer (and I HAVE cancer)..The cancer is YOU!! Yeah it’s just a part of you that decided to get bigger than it’s britches- so ya gotta love it- but tell it to get the fuck back in line!!
No Quater is a good place to update your intel & Mil. facts. Today has a good assesment.
http://noquarter.typepad.com/m.....sides.html
Lots of info in the comments.
Gentleman Jim @ 94
Thanks for this. Pretty interesting.
rwcole @
82
Before Jane discovered she was ill again, I suggested Jonathan Cook:
http://www.jkcook.net/
She was looking into it. Also fdl has tried to get the Carter Center to reply to a book salon request.
Another great guest post could be done by Shulamit Aloni. She is the former Education Minister of Israel. She has been awarded both the Israel Prize and the Emil Grunzweig Human Rights Award by the Association for Civil Rights in Israel. Here’s her most recent article I’m aware of, written in defense of Jimmy Carter:
http://www.counterpunch.org/aloni01082007.html
SteveAudio @
80
One of my prayers was for her nurses to make sure she got enough pain medicine.
I’m happy she was going to sleep; I’m praying for her.
Ed–Thanks for the links- I will explore them- you are a reliable source of great information.
Margot @ 99
She’s on a morphine pump, with a lovely button to push whenever she needs some.
She said she felt like she had been run over by a truck, but her smile was fantastic, and her eyes sparkled.
Valley Girl @ 79
And who among us could ever deny either you or Amato any request? -grinning cause when the candle site was first mentioned it put me in a mind grip of years of distaining anything remotely resembling chain letters and more recently my woefully inept tech skills. :~)
I had surgery once on an outpatient basis- and was scared shitless when they told me I would be awake for a fairly significant operation. They gave me Demoral (wait- how the fuck do you spell that?) I was totally delighted through the whole thing.
rwcole @
100
I’ll show your comment to my wife……
rwcole @ 103
Any wonder people take drugs recreationally? Because they can make you feel really good.
Irons @
27
Have a look at this site, West Point Grads Against the War. My husband is a member. Don’t generalize (no pun intended).
SteveAudio,
The thing is, if you’re going to sleep and no one’s looking out for you, there’s no one to press the morphine pump for you. We did it for patients in the ICU where I was a tech but on busy floors, there is not enough nursing staff (or was not in our hospital) to do this. That’s why I’m so glad she’s in ICU.