The comments about the US market being slow are false. This year more than 3000MWs are likely to be installed, again the world’s largest by far. Transmission is an issue long term, as are long term financial incentives replacing the PTC. (Production Tax Credit, currently $19/MwH.)

Perhaps I’m shading what I see of that market by what I think should be happening–and I did not realize that there had been a big jump in installed capacity from 2004 to 2005 (~500 megaW to ~2,500 megaW).

Still, if we see the EU and the United States as roughly comparable economies and roughly comparable electricity consumers (just for argument’s sake–EU per capita consumption may be a little more or a little less), the United States is far, far behind the EU in installed capacity. Yes, that’s catching up in the last couple of years, but the European installed base is almost five times that in the US, I believe–and that includes the pretty large percentage increases of the last couple of years. (Too, that expectation of 3000 megawatts installed for 2006 has to be considered in terms of the size of the economies compared. Germany’s GDP is slightly less than one-quarter of ours, and it will install in that time period, what?, 1500-1800 megawatts?)

I suppose someone inside the industry is going to be near-ecstatic at the recent 30% growth rates year over year. But, when I look at the overall numbers, I still see us–by comparison, perhaps–as well behind the curve, especially given the need in the US.

And, by another, and perhaps unfair, comparison, when the government spends more on the war in Iraq in a month than the country as a whole spends on the installed cost of new wind turbines in a year, I have to wonder about priorities, too.

Cheers.

They’re not really the old Enron, Enron bought Zond, and Clipper was Zond. They received significant US research dollars, and developed a machine which on paper is a serious step forward.

Other coin side: They’ve had only one babysat turbine in operation for a year, and they have a track record of not realizing paper designs.

in case anyone’s still reading. But the Clipper design is great, and BP is financially behind them.

FITZ!!!!

hey,,,Thanks! That was an excellent summary. I’ve learned a lot in a short time here on this subject.

My idea is if a regional war in the Middle East breaks out and the U.S. steps with wmd’s then China and Russia will come at us. I don’t know that these two countries will have a choice. And what will India and Pakistan do?

It would take very little for these two to start lobbing missiles at each other,given their history and animosity towards each other. Especially when you take into account that Pakistan have recently tested their Hatf3 short range ballistic missile to add to their nuclear arsenal.
http://www.thenews.com.pk/print3.asp?id=4667

Enercon in germany developed the variable speed technology earlier here, but Kenetech was awarded the variable speed patent using IGBTs as controllers. Enercon uses permanent magnet generators which eliminate the gearbox.

Many of GE’s competitors have found technical ways around the patent. And they’re selling turbines all over the US market, which is now the largest single market in the world… at least until the end of 2007 when the PTC is set to expire. (Most analysts expect it to be renewed.)

GE does sell the majority of its turbines in the US. They have manufacturing facilities in Europe because they bought Tacke Wind after Enron. But their major market is not EU, rather US and Canada.

Most of the concerns regarding the military radar have been addressed, and many of the stalled projects are going forward. Many other projects were not affected.

GEs biggest competitors are Vestas, the global market leader, Siemens (because they bought Bonus, a reliability leader, allowing the mid-scale Danish company to scale up globally), Gamesa, the spanish firm agressively attacking the us market, and Suzlon, the market valuation leader from India whose engineering staff is located here in germany.

Enercon, market leader in germany and in the top globally, has decided to go after other markets and is not focused on north america for now. REpower and Nordex are planning US market entry in 2007, gradually.

GE’s problem has been the continued reliance on the 1.5MW turbine, based upon the Enron design. this turbine still has reliability problems despite its maturity. They’ve been very slow to bring to market their 2.x turbine, postponing for years.

A separate division of GE recently introduced a new transmission for GE turbines, with about 10% of this year’s installations. This will allow GE to move away from it’s gearbox sourcing from gearbox manufacturers owned by its competitors.

The comments about the US market being slow are false. This year more than 3000MWs are likely to be installed, again the world’s largest by far. Transmission is an issue long term, as are long term financial incentives replacing the PTC. (Production Tax Credit, currently $19/MwH.)

for those of you in the financial community, there is huge M&A activity behind the scenes throughout the supply chain. One example is that Goldman Sachs has Horizon up for sale. Horizon is a developer which moved away from purchasing GE turbines last year.

Sorry, all a bit scattershot, but best i can do for now. The American Wind Energy Association and the euro9pean Wind energy Association web sites are the best compendiums of background info.

Hmmmm. Funny, I’d swear that trombones (and trumpets, foxhorns, etc) are brass with, perhaps, bits of chrome plate here and there, maybe some stainless steel (not so much in trombones but certainly in trumpets and foxhorns and the like).

Neither brass nor chrome rusts. What sort of shit-assed musical instruments has this Allen asshat been exposed to?

kristinejoy @ 61

Why did I look up an Abe Lincoln?

cuz you just couldn’t resist it

there’s some sick and twisted people in this world

and some of us just can’t look away

That’s what I should’ve done.