
Today at 11:00 a.m., the Iraq Study Group is scheduled to release its much anticipated report with recommendations about what to do about Iraq.
The Washington Post today describes the lastest semi-official leaks that the report will call for the US to "threaten to reduce military and economic support" to pressure the Iraqis to meet certain benchmarks and recommend the removal of US "combat" forces (but not US troops serving as trainers) by early 2008. We don't know whether the President will follow it's recommendations. But we can at least hope that it will finally legitimize the long missing national debate about how to extract the country from what many, including former President Jimmy Carter, regard as perhaps the worst strategic foreign policy blunder in our history.
During the Connecticut Senate campaign, when asked about his Iraq position, the Democratic candidate Ned Lamont often said that "we didn't get into the Iraq mess by asking too many questions; we got there because we didn't ask enough questions." I think Ned Lamont was right and that the same insight should apply as we look at the ISG recommendations about what to do next.
So I want to start asking those questions here and invite our commenters to weigh in. What questions should the ISG report answer? And how does the ISG report help us understand what needs to be done and why?
I suspect we already know what some of the contending parties want:
Senators McCain/Lieberman/Graham and their fellow neocons want to "win," presumably because they can't or don't want to accept responsibility for having foolishly urged us to initiate this disaster. And because it is now the official view of our almost confirmed Secretary of Defense that we are not winning, these folks want to keep pouring more troops into Iraq based on the as yet unproven and highly questionable assumption that if we just put enough US troops into Baghdad, we will win, assuming we had more troops to send. Never mind that our Viet Nam experience strongly suggests that a half million US troops, supported by a draft and increased taxes, plus a million more trained ARVNs, was not enough to "win" there.
Senator Levin, Representative Murtha and many Democrats want to start planning to get out, to "redeploy" (or as some call it, "pull back") US forces to somewhere else. The apparent hope, logical but also unproven, is that this will encourage the Iraqis to do whatever they are not doing now that would improve things, but without it further endangering US troops or "losing." And so far, the same official view that says we're not winning also holds that we are not losing either. Those who hold this view may or may not have a good idea about what would happen next, but apparently the assumption is that conditions would not become any worse than they would eventually become even if we had stayed. And I assume there are at least some in Congress who simply want us out, regardless.
In the meantime, our military leaders are already creating a de facto policy by moving forward with plans to (1) "surge" additional troops (from somewhere) into Baghdad to control the chaos and avert a possible collapse of what we call the national government, (2) expand and accelerate the "training" of Iraqi forces by embedding a lot more of our troops with their troops, and (3) endeavoring to meet Prime Minister al-Maliki's claim that the Iraqis can assume control of their armed forces and security by next June - a mere Friedman Unit from now -- even though some of our current and retired generals have already stated that this goal seems unrealistic.
Still, many seem to agree that the Iraqis must make some political adjustments: (1) the newly empowered Shia must give up to the Sunnis some of the power the invasion took from the Sunnis and gave to the Shia; (2) the parties need to agree on a fair way to divide Iraq's oil wealth; (3) the sectarian militias must be disbanded and/or purged from the national security forces, or become loyal to those forces instead of their sectarian leaders; (4) they all need to stop killing each other; and (5) somehow, Iraq's neighbors need to help bring this about, or at least not interfere in ways that would undermine the solution. As Ambassador Joe Wilson commented recently on these pages:
The utility of engaging Iraq’s neighbors and indeed all the backers of the various insurgent groups is to bring additional pressure to bear on the insurgents to channel their differences into political negotiations and to provide guarantors to any compromises that they might be called upon to make. As Dennis well knows, one of the roles of the US over the years has been to be the guarantor that any compromises made in the Arab Israeli peace process would not be the beginning of the end for the state of Israel. Iraqi factions may not be able to find the necessary compromises without outside pressure and guarantees.
So here are just a few of the questions I'd like the ISG report, and the ensuing national debate, to answer. And I hope our excellent commenters will add their own below.
1. What stategic vision of US interests in the Middle East should we use to evaluate the ISG recommendations and our continuing presence there?
2. Does the ISG assume or advocate a substantial and indefinite US military presence in Iraq, and if so, what is its purpose?
3. As long as US combat forces remain in Iraq, exactly whom are they fighting, and how do our troops distinguish them from those we are supporting? How is that defintion of the "enemy" consistent with our goals for Iraq? How is that definition consistent with our broader strategic vision and policy goals for Israel and the Middle East?
4. What reason is there to expect that following the ISG recommendations would actually lead to a substantial reduction in sectarian killings and an end to military hostilities?
5. Explain how following the ISG recommendations will serve to repair the tattered image of the United States and allow it to regain the respect it has lost from invading and occupying Iraq?
6. When are our troops coming home?
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SCARECROW! FITZ!
Good morning, Scarecrow :)
Good morning everyone. Nice day here in Cambridge/Boston area. Crisp, but sunny.
Hope everyone will chime in with some pertinent questions we should be asking about that Iraq thing. What a mess.
Fitz… 42 days to Pat’s opening statement…
(pending no delay)
I’m waiting for the cause of the war to be
headlined…
No need for the Baker Study Group if Bush had
not mislead the Nation…
This should be the top priority..
Jack
Mary Cheney is pregnant.
Discuss.
Question: How does it benefit the citizens of the United States to delay the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq?
epu’d from below:
early reports on the Iraq Study Group Report sound:
a) like it has nothing earth-shaking in it, and
b) like something Bush fully intends to read, maybe in August, between brush-clearing sessions.
Bush’s attitude toward the Commission members struck me as “thank you very much, I’m gonna file this, somewhere, immediately. And oh yeah, did I mention, thank you very much. Good-bye.””
Wigwam @ 6
That’s a good question; simple, to the point.
There appears to be two branches of each militia in Iraq: there are the militia members who have infiltrated the Iraqi army and police, and there are militia members who remain “irregulars.”
Those who advocate a continued US presence contend that we can’t leave until these militias are broken up by the Iraqi military and police.
Would the wise men of the ISG please tell us how Bush is going to get these militias to crack down on themselves?
Morning all — great post Scarecrow. I think Bush is going to publicly mau mau the report for a while, but he’s going to go along with whatever they recommend. Because, frankly, what he’s going to get from the Democrats come January is going to be even more harsh if he doesn’t. It’s not like there is a lot of wiggle room left in the “is Iraq a mess?” category, now is there? And no one trusts him to cealn it up on his own without a lot of help…
Baker’s job is to cover junior’s ass not to answer to the US public
Balrog @ 5
Out of wedlock I’m shocked. What about those family values the rethugs are always hectoring the rest of us about about?
Cliff — yeah, no one has every explained how that is supposed to happen.
Christy — thanks. On the prior TRex thread, I think there were comments about a Bush interview (today?), in which he said he would take the ISG recommendations “seriously.” We don’t even know what it means for Bush to take something “seriously.”
I read initially the study group agreed to present a unanumous opinion
now I see there are dissenters
I don’t really mind this, I’m sure if the study group said we had to “stay the course” I would have been livid the dissenters didn’t express their discontent
I thought the president was about to throw cheney under the buss but I see he’s “presideing” over a substantial senate meeting so I guess the president hasn’t realized he needs to villainize cheney if he hopes to survive
morning scarecrow! i love your question #1:
i wish that every politician and pundit would be have start their discussions of foreign policy with an honest answer to: “What is your strategic vision of US interests in the Middle East?”
Scarecrow at 13 — yeah, I hear you on that — the NYTimes has quotes in a just up on the website article. Take a peek here:
Mr. Bush called the group’s finding “a very tough assessment of the situation in Iraq.”
He did not commit himself to adopting any of its conclusions, but urged Republicans as well as the Democrats who will soon take control of Congress to take the report as “an opportunity to find common ground.”
“While they won’t agree with every proposal — and we probably won’t agree with every proposal — it is an opportunity to come together and work on this important issue,” he said.
Talk about a whole lot of hot air being expended to say absolutely nothing. Geez…
Christy Hardin Smith @ 10
This means the Decider would have to admit has been wrong. That would be a big step that I don’t know he is capable of making. Judging by the gates confirmation hearing and the statements by Reyes about adding 30,000 more troops to the Iraq quagmire, I am a little confused as to what the democrats are thinking.
Wigwam @ 6
It doesn’t but it will benefit the Carlyle Group
The current bait & switch that the Dem party is pulling on the American people will come back to bite ‘em.
klyde @
12
Luckily for her and her partner, same-sex parents are accepted in today’s America.
Or did they get that changed already?
klyde @ 11
I suspect that’s part of his motivation. But I also suspect that he realizes you can’t cover up an obvious mess, and that something has to be done. More to the point, I believe Washington wants to take the report seriously, because they know this is a mess that may/will only get worse. I see this as akin to the 9/11 Commission report: The administration tried to ignore it, but in the end, many (not all) of its recommendations were adopted after pressure from others. At this stage, and with Bush JAR at or below 40%, I don’t believe the Bush Administration can afford to be seen as putting this on the shelf. We’ll see.
EPU’d from late night:
twolf1 @
171
scarecrow @ 13
i think it’s like he took the aug 6, 2001 PDB “seriously”.
perris:
I thought the president was about to throw cheney under the buss but I see he’s “presideing” over a substantial senate meeting so I guess the president hasn’t realized he needs to villainize cheney if he hopes to survive
More on that? Cheney usually only shows up when his vote is needed to break of tie. What’s up?
twolf1 at 17 — I think it has more to do with trying to find some safe way out — if our soldiers have to fight their way out of the country, it is going to be ugly. And they need to have the logistics in place to do that if and when it happens. That may mean more troops to get things set up in the short term, if so. Gilliard would be much better equipped to answer that than I am, frankly, but there is so much advance planning that has to be done and put together on the ground — and this may be a part of that. Just a hunch on my part…
The patient lay dying or dead on the table while a blue-ribbon panel of Doctors began their final game of Liar’s poker:
Ok, who wants to open?
I will. High card has to operate while the rest of us play golf.
Jokers are wild and if you get a face card, you have to stay and tell the relatives.
Looks like I’ve got nothing.
Me either.
Sorry Junya, but with a pair of 2s, it looks like it’s your hand.
Christy Hardin Smith @ 10
g’morning and nice post scarecrow but have you seen this? (from orange)
New Democrat House Intel Chief Wants More Troops For Iraq??
I think the democrats need to approach the people who want to “win” need to ask them some specific questins;
obviously, “what will constitute winning”
and;
“since we already accomplished the goals set out to initiate this war, we have already won, the president created new objectives and at every turn changes those objectives, so tell us what objective you want to accomplish before we leave?”
“do you think we will ever leave, or is “winning” turning Iraq into an american providence”
“how do youn expect to “win” if every military expert tells us we are doing all that can possibly be done with the existing resources yet we are loosing?”
“how many more troops do you think we need to enlist in order to “win?”
“how much more resources do we need to spend before we’ve spent too much?”
“where are we getting those resources from, are we bortowing them?”
“since recruitment cannot meet demand even at present levels, where will we get the troops needed?”
“do you think in order to “win” we have to force the men and women on their 3rd, 4th, 5th tours of duty into yet another tour?”
“are any of your children or family serving on the front line?”
all questions that are perfectly legitimate, that we know the answers.
time to get the answers we know from the repukelicans that want to send other peoples kids off to die in order to put money in haliburtons coffers
twolf1 @ 21
It’s nice that I can deliver day old news, off topic, to all of you this morning.
In my defense, apparently even Balrogs can get Strep Throat… Damn kids!
klyde @ 12
Whaddya sayin’? The Fundies are gonna be overjoyed at another immaculate conception!
rumi — I heard that report on the radio. Haven’t seen a written press report. But if, as I hope, the release of the ISG report sparks a more open debate about what to do, I assume will have different opinions all over the map.
Balrog @ 27
It was posted this AM in the late nite thread… if that makes you feel any better.
Hope you can shake your strep quickly! Maybe one good blast of that fiery stuff you breathe out when you’re angry will clear it up?
Ooohhhh…I must’ve said a bad word “Your comment is awaiting moderation.”
And I bet it was p*ker.
Our troops will most likely come home on or about the perfect time to help win the ‘08 election for the Refu*klicans.
http://www.seriouskidding.com
Balrog @ 19
What is this same sex parents you mention? Everyone knows women can’t have children together; they don’t have “little soldiers.”
Snark aside: Mary and her partner live in VA which has after Ohio, much to my disgust one of the most anti-gay constitutional amendments in the country. If I recall it prevents two people of the same sex from entering into a contract the bestows the appearence of marital rights or civil unions. So no matter how much they love one another and whatever type arrangement they may have between them as long as they livwe in VA and 15 or so other states her partner has no legal rights to the child or to Mary for that matter.
If the couple has a fight in five years and an acrimonious break-up Mary, thanks to an anti-gay act her father’s bitch kkkarl rove helped to push through would be able to deny her partner all access to the child. But that will never happen. Right?
SeriousKidding: That was my cynical view a year ago about what would happen just before the midterm elections. But I was wrong.
I thought this tidbit from the WaPo link above was interesting:
Be interesting to see if the final report took this out.
It appears that the groups there are fighting each other and all want to the USA out.
Saddam kept it all bottled up with a dictatorial authoritarian quasi fascist state power. It is unlikely that this type of controlling force can be created in a democratic state when their is such internacine hostility.
The real question is can the groups there live side by side and settle their disputes. If they can, they can go onto step two and use their so called oil wealth to re build the infrastructure that we so kindly blew up. They should put their own people to work building whatever they want there and the USA should get the hell out and stop pouring money into that country or the middle east for that matter.
Our so called “strategic” interests in the region is and gas… and our best hopes is to purchase it or to partner with locals to extract it. Of course the likely outcome of a partnering arrangement is that big energy rips off, bribes and reigns corruption down on everthing they touch and so hostility and resentment builds and some attack at US interersts and there you have it… We need to go in a protect our “strategic” interests once again.
The money wasted in war could buy a hell of a lot of crude… When is someone going to do a little cost/bene and realize we are going about getting the black gold the most expensive way… Oh I forgot.. the military industrial guys need to get their piece of the pie too. How dumb!!!!
Fact is, that war and chaos is too good for American mulitnational corps (theives) to ever get out of this. The people who want out have dog in the fight they have or a conscience… or we are just pissed off that we are having to pay for this for decades to come.
Don’t expect the MIC to put itself out of business. War is what makes american go…
here ya goscarecrow @ 23
I have the same feeling about Iraq as I did
in my early twenties about Viet Nam…
It doesn’t make any sense and we should get out, like yesterday.
All this discussion in the Baker Commission is bullshit because nobody KNOWS the fucking answer…
The answer is PEACE.
Sorry but my eyes are on the Libby trial and
impeachment for all those who fucking LIED to
us….
I know it sounds like retribution but I view it
as justice…
Maybe I’m wrong…
Jack
Here’s a question also for everyone here.
Should the complete dismantling of the local militias be seen as the only (or highest priority) workable solution to securing peace?
When Ambassador Wilson was here answering questions about Iraq, he said something about legitimate U.S. interests in the Middle East. I’d like to see a list of what those interests are and would like to know what those interests have to do with Iraq.
scarecrow @ 20
I think you’re an optimist. But as you said we’ll see.
scarecrow @ 29
from newsweek, via tmp:
there’s lots more. pretty depressing.
scarecrow @
8
It’s strange how the alleged well-being of the population of Iraqis dominates the discourse, and somehow coincide with preserving presidential vanity and/or maximizing profits for his contributors.
Good morning, everyone!
It sounds like the Iraq Study Group is recommending one last try at diplomacy, then withdrawal.
Will Bush listen now?
atdnext @ 44
No!
perris — thanks for the link. No problem if cheney’s attendance is solely to say bye bye to Frist. I might like to go to that myself. Wave a hankie, or something.
rumi — re dismantling the militias, I think that’s about as likely as the US government disarming the NRA. The question to me is, to whom are they loyal? Whose orders will they obey? The country and a national government? or a local sectarian leader? Seems to me they need to create the conditions in which the first answer becomes more attractive.
rumi @ 38
imo, no - not by us. and not just because we’ve proven we aren’t able to do it.
we’ve proven that we have no capability to provide local protection to the iraqi people (from the immediate looting to the continuing kidnapping).
if the militias are to be disarmed it should be attempted by someone (or some organization) seen as both legitimate and as capable of restoring order.
we ain’t it.
Selise — thanks for the Newsweek link. I understand the logic of more troops, but disagree with the unproven assumption that it will accomplish anything worthwhile. But this is the part of that article that puzzles me.
“We’re not going to have stability in Iraq until we eliminate those militias, those private armies,” Reyes said. “We have to consider the need for additional troops to be in Iraq, to take out the militias and stabilize Iraq … We certainly can’t leave Iraq and run the risk that it becomes [like] Afghanistan” was before the 2001 invasion by the United States.If, as we tend to believe here, the official security forces are composed of the militia — the army = militias — then the proposal has us simultaneously fight/killing and training the same people. How does that work?
http://www.usatoday.com/news/n.....htm?csp=34
Poor Poppy. Poor Godfather. The favored son lost in ‘94 and we ended up with Fredo in the White House instead of Michael.
Maybe we should all be crying…
Good Morning Firedogs,
re: dismantling the militias,
seriously, who the hell is Reyes listening to, Ken Pollack ??!?!?
b/c Gilliard distills it rather nicely right here -
Congressman Reyes, just how many Casey Sheehans do ya think we have ?!?!?
scarecrow-selise-
I think it would be like trying to disarm and pacify the ind state units of the Natl Guard…impossible unless the answer is to kill everyone. These militias are a natural result of the need for local protection and any attack just breeds more revenge. That’s part of what has been nso bad for troops to date.
We need to first earn their respect and that begins by respecting their right to survival. Most of them are only protecting their families because nobody else would.
That’s why Reyes’ statements are so dangerous.
scarecrow @ 47
my flipant answer is that “it doesn’t” (work that is). very depressing to see reyes say something that appears to be so stupid.
Cliff Varnell @ 49
Yes. I think it reflects the mood of the
country…
Jack
More from the WaPo link in the main post, it appears that how to wage more or less war got most of the attention, and how to wage peace got very little:
Hmmm, I wonder:
1. Baker is much closer to Bush I than Bush II.
2. Bush I wept over the destruction of Jeb’s future political career, and possibly that of all the somewhat competent Bushes as a result of W’s failed radical policies.
From this I would conclude that whatever Baker says publicly, privately he doesn’t see any way out of this that salvages the Bush family reputation. What this means, other than that he hasn’t joined W out in cuckoo bananas land, I don’t know.
The telling point in the report’s “recommendations” - as to how STILL no one will actually confront the Bush Admin. on their utter failure in Iraq - is not only that there is no call for the impeachment and removal of this utterly incompetent president for lying to get us into this disaster in the first place (not to mention his exploitation of 9/11 to do so) but that they recommend “enhanced diplomacy.”
This president is incapable of diplomacy. Diplomacy is anathema to this administration. That the ISG is recommending diplomacy only proves to me that they still don’t get what this administration has done or how this administration operates.
We are, therefore, doomed to failure in Iraq, not that we’re not already there or anything.
selise @ 51
Thats it!! that’s the word I was searching for…”stupid”…that’s exactly what it is.
What’s frightening to me is that the Russians must have asked themselves all these questions as they were drowning in the quagmire of Afghanistan — you know, before the USSR collapsed because they’d bankrupted themselves in their insane war there. What I’d like to ask the ISG is, how is Iraq different?
Danbury — an early draft of my post included a seventh question. Something like:
“and if the Bush/cheney regime rejects these and other reasonable options, should the country conclude that the only reasonable course is to pursue the legitimate removal of these individuals from office”
But I left it for another time . . .
Shweet post!
Danbury @ 56
Yep, you may be right! They’re willing to say that the situation is “grave and deteriorating”, but they won’t quite lay this disaster a Bush’s feet…
Can Bush engage in diplomacy? We’ll see, but I understand your doubts. He hasn’t engaged in any over the last six years, so what makes us think he’ll start using it now?
OT - Heres a link pertaining to Scarecrow’s AM post yesterday “Who’s Watching the Watchers?”
Cell phone users, beware. The FBI can listen to everything you say, even when the cell phone is turned off.
scarecrow @ 53 - wrt waging peace… please forgive me harping on this again… but i think if we really were interested in a genuine peace, we’d be creating study groups lead by people like ghassan andoni (palestinian) and jeff hapler (israeli) who were nominated for the 2006 nobel peace price by the afsc (the 1947 winner). here is halper’s recent analysis.
Good morning Pachacutec. Thanks for stopping by. How’s the weather down there?
From the WaPo’s David Ignatius: The Price of Iran’s Help
selise, if it’s peace, harp away. thanks for links.
rumi @ 38
Because the GOP wanted the constitution finished and elections held in time to help their electoral prospects, our government helped create an Iraqi government in which parties that control militias were an essential part of the coalition, and a constitution that makes ministries (such as the Interior Ministry) fiefdoms controlled by their minister and his party, with the prime minister having little power to control them. Depite Hadley’s attempt at a “blame Maliki” strategy, the lack of power is not the fault of the person occupying the prime minister’s office. Our only real opportunity to control the militias was lost when we went in without enough troops to provide security, or a plan to do so.
We can’t disarm the Shiite militias connected to parties in government without the government collapsing, unless those parties want them disarmed, and it would be suicide for the Sunni militias totally outside of government to disarm if the government-connected ones don’t, even if they wanted to. Ergo, anyone who thinks we can crush or disarm the militias by purely military means and then have a nice peaceful government is an idiot. If there are serious plans in place to negotiate so that most parties can see a greater benefit to settling politically than to continuing to defend their group by force of arms, then there might be some sane plan that involved temporarily sending more troops (though I’m dubious.) But talking about more troops before beginning any serious talk of a political settlement is just idiotic.
Have I missed something?
Am I blind to the 600lb Therapod in the room?
UNITED NATIONS
Can we get the UN involved? I mean a 150000 multinational peacekeeping force, with no American personnel.
The whole of Iraq loathes us. Lets GET OUT.
It is time to let the permanent members of the UN Security Council to create and command these forces. The only way to make it legit, is to bar the USA for attending, voting (and/or vetoing) this process.
I’ve always held theory that says:
Get any one species too much rope
And they’ll fuck it up
Lets get all species (read:nations) involved
twolf1: that’s an eye opener.
scarecrow: It’s very nice outside here in the DC metro area, if a little chilly.
I had a hard drive meltdown last week, so I had to order a new pc. Now I’m trying to get my old data, business data, loaded and accessible into the new system. The old emails in Outlook Express are the biggest challenge. This is not yet to mention my suddenly surfacing router issues. Oy.
Which is all to say, I’ve only been semi-able to keep up. This post helps a good bit. I like having the chance to stop in here to get news hots as I begin the day.
here’s a bit from halper’s analysis of the israeli/palestinian situation. i fear it may also apply to our usa/iraq troubles:
is the ISG an exercise in “conflict management” and attempting to “muddling through”?
From Digby:
Odd thing, this. Digby sees this as a political statement. Hard to believe that Pelosi didn’t have this conversation with “Silver” before naming him. Methinks there is much more to this than meets the eye, I hope.
That said, one of the things that is not talked about (it’s as if they are all living under an invisibility cloak) is the number of “contractors” that are also in Iraq. Last number I heard I think was when Teddy said something about 100,000. So any withdrawal is not just about 140-150K troops but these folks as well. That almost doubles the size of the operation.
Back to the question at hand, I think that the question posed above by perris,
What does it mean to win? What does winning look like?
What was the deal in Vietnam? Declare victory and go home?
I seem to recall something like that in the back of my brain.
However, this is a whole different scene. We have taken a baseball bat to a hornets nest. You can’t undo that and the anger it has stirred up among the hornets.
scarecrow @ 59
If you or I caused a failure of this magnitude on our jobs, do you think our bosses would be saying, “It does no good to look at how we got here. We must move forward” and not fire us?
This country was somehow able to spend years and millions of dollars - with Republicans even going back ten years to focus on a stupid land deal gone wrong - in order to try to remove a president from power, succeeding in getting an impeachment in the process, such bogus machinations actually leading to the “election” of this criminal administration.
Yet a president inflicts the “worst foreign policy strategy in US history”, and we must all simply “move forward.”
It’s sickening.
Redshift @ 66
That’s a really clear explanation of the links between the government and the militias, Redshift. It then begs questions about Hadley; does he not know this? Or did he have some other agenda in not acknowledging this?
Redshift @ 65
Thanks for the background information that helps explain the complexity of the situation. As selise also noted earlier, this would all be based on trust in the mediators and our’s is shot.
…hey, where the hell did all this rope come from, anyway?
SeriousKidding @ 32
I’m not convinced there is a good time for that any more. It seems like the two routes are Bush’s “if I don’t leave, I never have to admit failure,” which leaves the meatgrinder running for two more years (not good for the GOP), or “start to pull out at some point and try to blame everything bad on the Democrats,” which I don’t think is going to fly. (Next generation they’ll have new neocons who will believe that the failure was all the fault of the Democrats and the press, but I don’t think they can make it take hold by ‘08.) Once they start to pull out, it means “the war” is over and it opens the door to serious “who lost Iraq” talk, which isn’t going to be good for them no matter how hard they spin.
Just as with the war itself, Bush has put them in a lose/lose situation that was completely unnecessary from the start.
Scarecrow,
I meant to add, I have felt the only way out of this mess is to recognize that we need the help of other countries and the only way to get that is to oust this administration, hold a special election (or something!), and get new people in who don’t insult and alienate our allies and who can actually get those countries to help us.
This one is not capable of it, no one wants to help us now with these fools in power, so the removal of Bush and Cheney, et al, isn’t solely about “looking backward” and seeking revenge. It has a practical purpose as well.
selise @ 69
is the ISG an exercise in “conflict management” and attempting to “muddling through”?
I think yes. W needs cover, can’t admit mistake, lots of DC regulars (Rs and Ds) want the cover too. “Muddling through” is some effort to buy time in the hope it will “work itself out” while Rs ‘n Ds try to convince the families of service members that “our soldiers” have not “died for nothing” while keeping recruitment going. And going.
Gore to Bush on Iraq: It’s Not About You
Pachacutec @ 67
what a nightmare - good luck pach…. and thank’s for the reminder to backup my hard drive today. i used to do it pretty regularly each weekend, but i’ve gotten out of the habit.
scarecrow @ 71
The discussion I heard/read about it treated it as if he somehow didn’t know it, which is certainly possible, considering how hard members of this administration try not to know things they don’t want to know. Personally, though, I’m more inclined to think that he did know it, but figured that a strategy of putting impossible tasks on Maliki and making it his fault when he fails to do what we’ve also failed to do was the best way of getting out and blaming it on someone else.
(And sadly, that still might be the most likely way for us to get out. It’d be a nice bookend — they lied us into war, they lie us out of it — and I’m willing to let them save face if it saves lives, because I’m sure they’ll end up with the lion’s share of the blame anyway.)
Wow, scarecrow, wish I could think of something else to add right now to your list of questions. I think I’ve become so used to having any one question unanswered that developing a list of questions like this is a skill to be redeveloped.
The next skill/talent to be redeveloped: relearning how to set normal and higher expectations, after more than a decade of low expectations of Congress.
selise — hey, I found my photos from one of the rallies I went to; looks like a donut-eater got my picture, too, when I snapped his.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/raynetoday/1109570/
SCARECROW!
had no idea I wasn’t reading Christy until I got in to the comments - wow! excellent
nothing on Prof. Cole’s site about ISG - rather telling doncha think ?
RevDeb -
linked this WaPo piece on contractors yesterday - pls note it is only DoD’s first pass at a ‘census’
http://www.washingtonpost.com/.....01311.html
James Fallows lays out the two ‘options’ in his latest -
http://jamesfallows.com/test/2.....s-are-bad/
Iraq and a hard place indeed
Via Atrios:
Anyone want to try to parse that one?
Danbury. I tend to agree with a general conclusion that it may be impossible to make real progress on many issues, not just Iraq, until these people are removed from office. But alas, the country does not yet appear to be comfortable with the implications.
twolf1– wow. That’s a great statement by Gore. Very . . .uh . . . “presidential.”
The Decider was especially incoherent this morning with the ISG. His handlers should know by now that he needs to be fed many lines before these things.
cbl — I assume Juan Cole is waiting to read the actual report, instead of the WaPo leaks. The report is supposed to be posted on the ISG web, whose link is the first one on the main post. Also, it’s early where he lives.
I guess they have completed the pop-up book version of the ISG Report for the little