
There's a couple of things that are really strange to me about the poisoning death of former KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko. And now it looks like even more people may have been exposed (AP via Salon), which in turn raises a whole new set of questions:
December 01,2006 | LONDON — An Italian security expert who met with a former Russian spy on the day he fell fatally ill has also tested positive for the radioactive substance, British media reported Friday.
Mario Scaramella has tested positive for a significant amount of polonium-210, which also was found in the body of former KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko, according to Sky Television and the British Broadcasting Corp. reported.
Scaramella had come from Rome to meet with Litvinenko at a sushi bar in London on Nov. 1 — the day the former intelligence agent first reported the symptoms that ultimately led to his death at a central London hospital.
This is sending up red flags for a number of reasons. The first thing that's odd is the actual nature of the poison. Let me see if I can break this down quickly.
Polonium-210 is a highly radioactive isotope that has certain very specific uses, for instance in anti-static brushes for photographic film. It's incredibly complicated to make and under normal circumstances, it's not harmful to humans because it emits alpha radiation, which is defined thusly by US Army Environmental Glossary:
alpha radiation
The most energetic but least penetrating form of radiation. It can be stopped by a sheet of paper and cannot penetrate human skin. However, if an alpha-emitting isotope is inhaled or ingested, it will cause highly concentrated local damage.
Unless you eat, drink, or inhale polonium, or take it in through a break in the skin, it's basically harmless. So, that would lead us to believe that it was in Litvinenko's food at the London sushi bar where he was poisoned. My question is how sick is the Italian who met with him? Has he, too, received a lethal dose or was he exposed by proximity, getting a lower dose? According to this story on NPR's All Things Considered, the amount of polonium-210 that would make up a lethal dose would be approximately the size of a grain of sand, so if Scaramella received a non-lethal dose, the amount would have to be minuscule.
But here's the thing. Once polonium is ingested through the mouth, it meets another impediment to lethal poisoning, the gut-transfer barrier.
Salon interviewed nuclear expert John Large, who explains it thusly:
I was very surprised, because it's an alpha emitter, which is a heavy ionizer, but generally it's a difficult one to use if you were to have it ingested in food or something like that. One of the things about human beings is that our gut is designed to protect us from being poisoned. So the gut lining doesn't pass toxins into the blood. This would be seen as a metal, and if you look — health physicists have what they call gut-transfer factors, and the gut-transfer factor for polonium is quite low. Not a lot of it can get through.
(snip)
That's what's so strange about this. First of all, how was it administered? Was it administered through the ingestion pathway or the respiration pathway? The respiration pathway would require some quite sophisticated chemistry, and if it was [administered that way], it seems a bit too effective. So was there some trick, not only a chemical trick but a radiological trick, applied to this?
This has massive implications. Radiological medicine operates on this principle, given that radioactive isotopes, once introduced to the system, naturally settle in various organs, depending upon the nature of the isotope. We use this for radiological imaging and chemotherapy, where radiation is used to disrupt the reproduction of rogue cells like tumors. But in these methods, because of the gut-transfer barrier, the isotopes must be introduced intravenously.
That doesn't seem to be the case with Litvinenko. There is the chance that he inhaled polonium-210 rather than eating it, but due to the slow uptake polonium in the lungs, it would take some months for a lethal dose (5 units of radiation) to (in Large's words) "do its evil work". He could have been injected with the poison, but how would that account for Scaramella's exposure? These questions raise the possibility of nanotechnology, which is basically a fancy word for chemistry that works with matter on a scale smaller than 100 nanometers (1/10-9 meters).
From Wikipedia:
Two main approaches are used in nanotechnology: one is a "bottom-up" approach where materials and devices are built from smaller (molecular) components which assemble themselves chemically using principles such as molecular recognition; the other being a "top-down" approach where they are synthesized or constructed from larger entities through an externally-controlled process.
We're talking about the "bottom-up" version of nanotechnology here, where whoever engineered this poison has potentially made it so that its chemical signature allows it to elude the body's normal defenses and concentrate in the victim's organs, disrupting the cells and setting in motion a systemic collapse. In Litvinenko's case, the poison settled into the surface and marrow of his bones, where blood cells are minted and put into circulation. The polonium killed his blood, which in turn killed him.
A poison this complicated is rather beyond the means of most chemists, requiring an elaborate set of tools and laboratories.
Polonium, although it does occur naturally, is at the very end of the uranium decay train.
You need a nuclear reactor, you need a radiochemical laboratory that can handle radioactive material, and then you need a clinical laboratory that can cut it into a designer drug. Now, those facilities are simply not available in other than state enterprises. So countries like the United States, the Russian Federation, Britain, France and Israel are the sort of countries that can do this.
Large feels that this therefore directly implicates the Russian government. By his reasoning, a state apparatus is an absolute necessity to this equation.
But that's the second thing that strikes me as odd about this whole deal. If the Russian government wanted to take down an enemy, don't you think they would do it in some less public and spectacular way? Is this a message to other enemies of the Putin regime?
And here's where I am going to venture into the realm of rank speculation. My personal theory is that this and other recent murders of Putin's ideological opponents (that link is to a story about journalist Anna Politkovskaya, who was gunned down in the elevator of her Moscow apartment building) may not in fact be the work of the Kremlin, but rather the work of some agency with a direct interest in bringing down the Putin government.
In the years since the introduction of the free-market system in Russia, the Russian mafia has amassed a huge amount of wealth and power, as well as private citizens like jailed petroleum oligarch Mikhail Kordorkovsky. Moscow now has the highest concentration of millionaires of any city in the world. When capitalism came to the former USSR, some savvy operators seized that opportunity to suck up and horde most of the money in the country.
There are very powerful interests at work here, and it would not surprise me to find that this plot has layers on layers of intrigue. You may need a state apparatus to make polonium-210, particularly what appears to be a "weaponized" form, but all you need to buy it is money. At every stage of the process, there are people who could potentially be bought out or threatened. And one thing the power players in the former Soviet Union have in abundance is money.
So, I would not be so eager to lay the blame for this and other seemingly politically motivated murders at the feet of the Putin administration. Not because I believe that they are particularly good or just, but because I think it would be hasty to assume that they are the only malevolent actors in this particular drama.
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“don’t forget Polonium!”
This is a long and not particularly funny post, but I hope people will get something out of it.
TRex @ 2
it’s a very murky story….
Any place where stuff is supposed to be absorbed into the system could be damaged. Alpha particles may not penetrate far, but they’re smaller than most molecules.
A freakin James Bond/Sherlock Holmes story.
So this is nuclear-bio-terrorism?
Thanks TRex, going up to read now.
A question: what are they implications of traces of Po-210 being found at various locations around London, and possibly on some BA aircraft? What does that really mean? Is it that Litvinenko visited those places after coming into contact with the Po-210, or that he may have been exposed to it in multiple locations, or what? What about others who have been exposed, including his wife? Did the exposure come from contact with Litvinenko after he was poisoned? Anyone here know?
Yeah. It makes me think about that assassination in Syria (was it syria…trying to remember) anyway it was a surgical strike operation with sophisticated equipment used. On second thought I think it was a Lebanese that as assassinated and Syria blamed.
Right after it happened the US govt was up in arms saying see we can’t trust syria. They assasinated someone. Of course we need regime change.
Basically I felt that since US already had Syria in its sights that they probably did it so they could blame it on the Syrians.
AirportCat @ 6
These are all very good questions. I would be very interested to know what parts of the aircraft were found to bear traces of radiation. If it’s in the restrooms and sanitary facilities, it could mean that people who were exposed traveled on those planes. If it’s in the cargo hold, it could mean that the polonium wasn’t fully shielded when it was transported. And the number of planes would mean that there are potentially more people who have been poisoned.
This whole thing is fascinating, but horrible.
I think it could be linked to US.
Those pesky Russians won’t go along with bushco on much of anything despite dubya getting a sense of Putin’s soul.
And, the Russians still covet Afghanistan which bushco has messed up beyond belief.
Very impressive analysis, T-Rex. And I think you’re right about the likelihood that this is not a Putin instigated hit.
angie @ 9
I almost mentioned that in the post, but I was worried that it might mean my tinfoil hat was on too tightly.
So. Can we speculate on what countries other than Russia might be behind this polonium business? Motivation(s)?
TRex @ 2
Your range dazzles.
Expanding the net to include other state actors with access to end-of-chain isotopes leads one outside Russia quite quickly, though, doesn’t it? Perhaps this is a clumsily executed favor to the Putin regime. Who will rid me of this meddlesome
a. Russian journalist?
b. Russian spy and defector?
c. Italian journalist?
d. etc…
Isn’t there a Russian foreign minister, someone who’s tested positive for polonium-210 as well? Can’t search for links where I am right now….
Witchywoman @ 10
Thank you, my dear. My guess is that the best way to arrive at the truth of the matter is to imagine the darkest and most crooked scenario possible, then multiply it by itself.
TRex, I have not been following this story closely, but I found your post excellent at explaining some very heavy physical science and then even more helpful, setting it in the confusing political context, that is Russia. Thanks very much.
A story getting very little coverage:
Venezuela receives first 2 Russian fighter jets
Gee, and I’ve been walking around all week thinking, “who cares”!
Let’s say for argument’s sake someone is trained in bioweaponry and needs to get the adminstration off the hook on Iraq… maybe he could retrain the American mind on the Cold War? Yeah, that’s the ticket. Hell, he was able to pull off the anthrax gig, make folks believe it was Osama for a while, and he hasn’t been caught yet. How tough could it be go after a few oligarchs and whip up the ol’ frenzy? That’d be put folks on pins and needles, AND be good for business….
John Casper @ 15
My pleasure, really.
Nice to post something that won’t cause me to be pelted with rocks and garbage.
Yes, the most interesting aspect of this is why they just didn’t shoot him. As Marshall McLuhan sagely said, “The medium is the message.”
TeddySanFran @ 14
He was in Ireland IIRC.
TRex @ 15
yep. that’s what we gotta do these days and my tinfoil hat is beginning to hurt. I cannot wait for the day I can cast it off.
Whoever is behind it is playing hardball.
On the Clock @ 18
It’s an interesting question, but we have to remember that we really aren’t the center of the world. My guess is that the Putin government has enemies on top of their enemies, so it may actually be evidence of evil in the world that didn’t emanate from Karl Rove’s office.
And there is always the possibility that the Kremlin really did do it.
Since Joe Wilson is coming over to discuss Iraq, maybe you could get Valerie Plame over here to talk about this.
The word I kept hearing from TradMed, quoting Putin, was that former KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko’s death was “not violent, that he did not die violently.” Has anyone gone to the original Putin statement and read what word Putin chose; preferably someone with R-E translation skills? I imagine this is a mistranslation, as it certainly isn’t true and Putin knows that. What Russian word did Putin use? What else it might mean, other than “violent.” (wag)
Apparently. Polonium 210 can be purchased on-line, albeit in very small quantities: http://www.unitednuclear.com/isotopes.htm
The KGB is just as nefarious as our CIA is.
Evil is being done all over the planet.
A friend of mine from Ca. and I were talking about this incident a few days ago. My friend said it sounds like a possible Mossad deal. Normally I would blow this off. But when my pal speaks on such things I do listen to her. For she is Jewish and has a Phd. in this stuff, and used to work in Israel. I remain unconvinced of this theory, at this point however. And I am a hard sell when it comes to conspiracies.
It could be, OK kiddo– Mossad, KGB, CIA– all very sophisticated agencies.
*sigh*– we’ll probably never know.
It’s conceivable that Russian mafia elements associated with the ogliarchs who looted Russian assets in the early 90s, and who were later jailed or exiled by Putin, are behind this. At one time, those guys were worth billions, so they could pull it off. The BBC said it found that Po-210 is in use in at least a hundred locations in the UK, though my guess is that some agent was added to carry the polonium through the skin (one thing missing from the reports is what part of the body the polonium was found in, so that’s just a guess).
I think Putin’s people were responsible for some of the other killings, like that of jounalist Anna Politkovskaya. But we might be seeing rival gangs of thugs fighting over control of Russia, with Putin as the head of one gang. We shouldn’t be too quick to glorify the other side and pretend that the ogliarchs are a bunch of good capitalist businessmen, though. Their wealth came from theft.
Bustednuckles @
5
I’m thinking Dr. No, in the Dining Room
I think Hillary did it.
Maybe the toxin was incorrectly identified and was actually balonium.
From episode 210 of The Simpsons:
Skinner: (Talking to lisa about benefits of keeping the grant money) We can buy real periodic tables, instead of these novelty ones from Oscar Meyer.
Ms. Krabapple: Now who can tell me the atomic weight of “balonium”?
Martin: Ooh! Delicious?
Ms. K: Correct. I would have also accepted Snack-tacular.
dmbeaster, it looks like someone went to delete your second post while someone else went after the first and it was a really good point. I’m sorry, but could you post it again?
dmbeaster @29-
Putin had the head of Yukos put in prison and made his private company a state run operation (again). The Russian billionaires think Putin could do that to them too. So they pick a target like Litvinenko, knowing Putin will be blamed for his death. If Putin is run out of office, the billionaires are safe.
It’s a plausible theory. I don’t know if I believe it, but there’s a lot more going on here than we know.
Thanks for posting this, Trex. This story freaks me out, so specific information like how polonium 210 works is important.
Sorry all, but the nanotechnology/special delivery angle is a serious stretch. While it’s true that 210Po is poorly absorbed, a large enough dose in the gut would get SOME across that barrier. Natural 210Po is absorbed fairly well when it’s part of a tissue already:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/en…..med_docsum
In trying to think like an assasin (a surprisingly easy thing for this pacifist to do…) I can imagine a MUCH simpler explanation. Russians and Italians tend to smoke. Did Litvinenko or Scaramella? Is smoking allowed on the BA flights? If the answer to any of these is yes, there’s your plausible delivery system. If people were nearby when a spiked fag was lit, expect to see more poisonings or exposures. Otherwise the contamination in the planes might have come from smoke-encrusted clothing.
If the two were together and in close proximity and a confined space (not unlikely), when one lit up his hot coffin nail, then Big Tobacco and the KGB got a twofer.
Lots can arise that would easily shoot these theories down, but it seems far more likely to this pharmacologist that a simpler explanation than nanotech will prove true…
Pete
P.S., Naturally occurring Polonium is yet another reason not to smoke plant material:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/en…..med_DocSum
Someone with access to fresh Polonium 210 (read: less than a year old, hot from the reactor) decided to use it to bump off an enemy or two. And the terrorism alert status hasn’t risen a notch?
Yes, angie. We’ll never know.
kwarque @ 28
How do they send this stuff? FedEx?
Mac @ 39
tis curious, indeed.
Here is the link to the story about the Russian Prime Minister, who appears to have been poisoned in Ireland….
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/new…..ory=717040
Very scary…..
It’s incredibly unfunny, but has some great information in it. In some ways, it’s scarier if it’s NOT the Russian government. A rogue organization with this kind of access and technology, operating across a bunch of international lines is a wild scenario – yeah, right out of Bond.
TRex @
2
Very informative. Thanks for researching so I don’t have to T-Rex.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 42
to a Po box
Your end of the week gas and oil prices
Average price for regular gasoline 12/01/06 in 50 states and DC
$2.80 plus 1 state : Hawaii
$2.70 plus 0 states
$2.60 plus 0 states
$2.50 plus 4 states : California, Nevada, Oregon, Washington
$2.40 plus 2 states
$2.30 plus 7 states
$2.20 plus 24 states
$2.10 plus 13 states
$2.00 plus 0 states
Average national price for regular gasoline: $2.255, up $.008 from yesterday
Most recent low: $2.196 on November 7, 2006
Highest average price: Hawaii $2.851
Lowest average price: Missouri $2.104
http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/sbsavg.asp
Crude Oil:
Nymex Crude Future $63.43, up $.54
Dated Brent Spot $65.14, up $.72
WTI Cushing Spot: $63.43, up $.30
Today marks the first time since September 25 that no state has an average price for regular gasoline below $2.10. Weather, a sliding dollar, and a supply play that collapsed have pushed oil prices higher. Unimpressive economic statistics have had little impact on this trend.
I think the U.S. government probably does have a fair idea of who perped this polonium thing.
episode 210? For real?
Why would Putin be angry with Litvinenko?
From rigorous intuition.
Gaidar (poisoned-in-Ireland former Russian PM, now at an undisclosed location in Moscow having lost half his body weight, but out of danger) is a name I’ve never seen before.
Not sure I could be introduced to him and keep a straight face. heh. Although the Russian pronunciation is likely not gay-dar.
TRex says “If the Russian government wanted to take down an enemy, don’t you think they would do it in some less public and spectacular way? Is this a message to other enemies of the Putin regime?”
Someone is sending someone a very clear message. It’s not like we haven’t seen this before. Anyone here remember Giorgi Markov?
” September 7, 1978 (the birthday of Todor Zhivkov), Markov walked across Waterloo Bridge, which crosses the River Thames, and was waiting at a bus stop on the other side, when he was jabbed in the leg by a man holding an umbrella. The man apologized and walked away. Markov would later tell doctors that the man had spoken in a foreign accent. The event is recalled as the Umbrella Murder.
Markov recalled feeling a stinging pain from where he had been hit by the umbrella tip. When he arrived at work at the BBC World Service offices he noticed a small red pimple had formed and the pain from being jabbed had not gone away. He told at least one of his colleagues at the BBC about this incident. That evening he developed a high fever and was admitted to hospital where he died three days later.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgi_Markov
john in sacramento, the backwash regularly offer their younguns to be handled and used by bush and his wife.
blergh.
I would prefer that my child get kissed on the belly rather than on their face, but that’s just me!
(I actually would never allow it at all.)
Thanks, Hugh, I so enjoy reading these posted comments of yours, particularly
Is Bush covering for his buddy Vlad?
You are way off base on the nanotechnology connection. Colloidal chemistry, maybe. But if someone had molecular nanotechnology (bottom up) there would be a heck of a lot better ways to use it to kill somebody than this.
–MarkusQ
P.S. And the connection that keeps hitting me: the people involved in this (as victims at least) are all part of the Russian version of MIHOP (Made It Happen On Purpose) theorists, and there seems to be a number of points of contact with our own MIHOP crowd and the Knowingly-Lied-Us-Into-War point of view’s forged Nigerian Yellowcake documents via the Italians.
I know it’s a small world, but come on.
OfT, I would really recommend the first part of Hardball with David Shuster tonite. It just sounded to me as though Barry McCaffrey and David Gergan were just pissed out of their minds at Bush. That sounds to me like significant portions of the GOP.
TRex @ 2
Actually, it’s helpful to me, because I’m no chemist. One question–is it possible that Litvinenko had a medical condition that would increase absorption of the toxin in the digestive system? If the poisoner were aware of such a condition, it would (a) explain why this method was chosen (a high probability of success with Litvinenko specifically, as well as a high fear/publicity factor) and (b) why Scaramella might be less affected even from a similar dosage. It would also mitigate the need for some of the elaborate and frankly inefficient nanotech.
The Times of London 2nd page of a 2 page article
P J Evans @
4
The reason alpha particles are weak penetrators is precisely their relatively large size, being expunged excess protons emanating from the nuclei of unstable atoms. Beta particles, on the other hand, are higher energy (and nearly massless) electrons that can more easily penetrate barriers.
BTW- Po210 is a principal carcinogen in cigarette smoke. It’s a Uranium daughter (138 day 12 life) that leaches into the tobacco from the fertilizers used. Yuck.
_
this is a good link for some in-depth explanations: scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/ . So far there are three posts specifically on polonium-210
New Thread
upstairs
I find it hard to believe anyone would assume the danger of transporting such a toxic substance all that distance to kill one person in such a uniquely identifiable way.
Its Bizarre!
Btw, Trex,
I am awfully proud to read this post. I certainly am not a chemist, but you have given me a whole new level of understanding to this poisoning.
Oklahoma kiddo @ 48
The number of possible candidates is fairly limited, if Large’s statements about the technological requirements are accurate. As he describes those requirements, it isn’t simply a matter of money, it’s a matter of access to technologies that are just not widely available, even on the black market. (Nuclear reactors are a little too big to fence easily.) It isn’t too hard to narrow down this list, even if ironclad evidence is never forthcoming.
T–
Sorry you’re still smarting from that little dust-up the other night. As the poet Stevie Smith put it, “It was wrong of you, I know, but we all do wrong sometimes.” But you’ve earned our respect back with this hard work. Anyone who has been following the Sibel Edmonds case wouldn’t even be surprised to discover links between the Russian Mafia and certain powers-that-be in this country. For more on Sibel’s case in general, Lukery is the man to read.
I don’t have any information to comment on the specifics of this case. Moscow is a violent place where death often happens to those who get in the way of those with power, any power. So knocking someone off isn’t surprising. Assassinating an ex-agent, out of the business for years (although still a dissident and informally connected), in a foreign country, by exotic means, sounds to me like someone was trying to send a message, to terrorize opponents into silence, but it was incredibly sloppy. Trace readings of polonium being found all over London is not going to please the British, unhappy already that one of their citizens was murdered. But more than this, this murder sets a very dangerous precedent because it blurs the boundaries on radiological terrorism. A few years ago everyone was going crazy over “dirty bombs”. Well, folks, what you have seen here is a very small dirty bomb. The threat is that now that the door has been opened it may not be the last one you see.
Time Magaizine included another dark angle to this story:
“The Litvinenko murder landmarks the precedent of nuclear terrorism. Unless it is resolved, terrorists of any mettle will know they can get away with it.”..(snip) …”Then, both the state, factions within the state, and opposition forces will habitually resort to murder as a political expediency. “
-This is effectively nuclear terrorism on another country’s soil, and the perpetrators seem to have no concern for collateral damage to innocents, the political fallout between east and west, nor the destabilizing consequences within the USSR. (assuming these weren’t also goals)
-The methodology of the murders may serve as insight into the thinking of the perpetrators. Why take out the reporter quickly with a gun while making the ex-spy die a slow, painful death using complex, traceable means? Same people? Different?
-The source of this nuclear terrorism was (fairly confident to say now) NOT from the middle east. This should serve to realign our perceptions of the true nuclear terrorist threat; of sources and means of delivery.
Was Litvinenko a smoker? I could see this administered in a cigarette. Could help explain the collateral damage
squiddy @ 68
A bit overblown, I think. Again, this is not something that can be done in a basement chemistry lab. Time is trying to play this for general paranoia, just as a number of media outlets have tried to play the “suitcase nuke” scenario for fear without much consideration of the real complexities and difficulties of that scenario.
Just because heavy metals are absorbed poorly by the gut doesn’t mean they aren’t absorbed at all.
How do we know that he didn’t ingest several grams? The speed at which he got ill would seem to indicate a high initial does. It could have been mixed with soy sauce or put in wasabi and not noticed. It is about ten times more dense that water so a gram is still a pretty small physical amount. For comparison, a teaspoon of table salt weighs about 15 grams and this is much less dense.
As to why chose this type of poison, perhaps it was as a test as well as a way to eliminate a foe. It seems to be very effective. The person gets ill rapidly, but not so rapidly that the poisoner doesn’t have time to get away. Shooting, stabbing and other immediate attacks make the risk of capture much greater.
AirportCat @ 7
From Timesonline.com:The source said “It takes a small number of hours for the person ingesting polonium-210 to begin to excrete radioactive material through sweat, saliva, urine or faeces.”
“Large feels that this therefore directly implicates the Russian government.”
I’m sorry, but I respectfully disagree.
Israel, is The Enemy. By deception, shalt thou practice the Art of War.
I would agree.
Again admitting freely here I know nothing about the specifics, I would just like to point out that while heavy metals in their metallic state may be poorly absorbed, they still will be partially absorbed, and of course the metallic form is not the only one. Other forms may be more readily absorbed. You may not absorb much iron from a small piece of metallic iron you ingest but if say the valence on the iron were changed and you ingested it in the form of ferrous sulfate then absorption might be vastly increased.
TRex @
2
Good research. This is a very frightening story and I hope Scotland Yard is up to it! (They can call you for assistance, T.)
“100 nanometers (1/10-9 meters)”
(Think you meant [*] instead of[/])
nanometer = 1.0 E-9 meters
100 nanometers = 100.0 E-9 meters
I love a good mystery! Read them all the time. But this polonium thing blows my bloody brain! If it was so difficult to administer because absorption is also difficult, how are others contaminated? ‘Splain Lucy!
There’s a lot on this topic as well as a theory for how Alex was poisoned:
http://www.atlargely.com/2006/…..ng_gu.html
“UK Polonium-210 expert Nick Priest estimates that Litvinenko’s dose was probably on the order of a few micrograms, which could have been slipped into his food or drink as a soluble salt (New Scientist). “
From this post cited above.
hello EvilDrPuma @ 70
I apologize, should have mentioned that the quote was itself a quote from (former KGB General) Alexei Kondaurov. Though I’m sure Time was all too delighted to report it. The article can be found here:
http://www.time.com/time/world…..70,00.html
And yes, noone is suggesting that anyone decided to build a nuclear reactor just to kill political dissidents. As TRex says, all you need in Russia is money.
To help push back against the insanity:
Wworking for peace between the US and Russia for 10 years: Russian Medical Fund, I’m the president.
It doesn’t take a country (maybe just a village) to do this. They make anti-static brushes with it, for gods’ sake. You can just buy it.
The cigarette method is actually a nanotechnology method. The smoke particles from the burning of the polonium would probably be nano-sized.
notjonathon @
66
Very interesting, thank you. I wouldn’t be surprised at all.
robertdfeinman @
71
If what you say is true, then there needs to be a pretty serious investigation into the plumbing in his building (if there hasn’t been already), as well as the potential of this metal getting in to the water supply. If he was given several grams of the metal in order to have a small amount transfer over the gut barrier, then the rest would have passed through. If the sewage treatment system in London doesn’t remove Po-210 (and I have no idea if it would), or some other compound containing Po-210, then the baby population of London may be in for some serious hurting.
But there could be more to it than this– if he had an ulcer or some other intestinal laceration, the gut barrier would not be as much of a factor. The metal could essentially transfer in that way.
As for weaponization, there’s the possibility that it was associated with some protein compound instead of free-floating. I would almost bet on it, if it was administered as a food. I don’t know the chemistry of heavy metals, but I’d bet that it could be combined with some protein (or placed in a protein shell) to get dissolved in the small intestine rather than the stomach.
There might be other methods of transfer as well, such as a patch. This would be tricky, because it would require the patch be on him for a significant amount of time.
OR! What about the towel? When you go to sushi, you use a towel to wash your hands. If you have a compound on the towel that essentially allows for bypassing the skin and going to straight uptake into the blood, and the Po-210 dissolved in the same fluid. The other guy gets exposed, because the towels are on the same little wooden tray thingie. There are plenty of chemicals that can be taken up via fluid contact with the skin; if those compounds could be bound to Po-210, presto, instant sushi death.
The key, of course, will be to figure out the vector, but that towel idea has the ring of spy thriller to me.
jeffreyw @ 80
Aha! A clear case of a-salt, my dear Watson.
[Runs for cover…]
Bob @
69
Interesting idea. Some cigarettes already contain Po-210:
http://www.acsa.net/HealthAlert/RadioBacco.html
thanks trex
Some insiders from the intel community have a very different take over at http://www.TheSpyWhoBilledMe.com.
Seems these guys are laughing at the poor tradecraft of the Russians and think they really bungled the job.
Today they posted some hilarious advice, one spy to another: “Why You Should Never Use Your Shoe Phone After Stepping in Polonium-210″.
If the method of delivery were smoke from a cigarette, I’d assume Litvinenko would’ve been on a respirator during his last days. But it doesn’t appear to be the case. Litvinenko’s mouth and throat were reported to be inflamed and swollen, but no mention of trachea or lungs, suggesting the poison was either eaten or drunk. The victim’s hands appeared to be fine from all outside appearances. So I doubt the ‘hot towel’ method.
And what of this hit list? Surely the names on the list would help focus the investigation towards the perpetrator. (assuming it isn’t bogus)
Where’s George Smiley? He needs to get fitted for a hazmat suit.
When trying to decipher the methods or motives of Russians you must change your thinking. They are not like Westerners. They have long hard winters and hard lives and they drink a lot while writing poetry and explaining that nobody else understands their greatness. Well, they are great in a sort of sophisticated primitive way.
This crime (the murder of Litvinenko) reminds me of 9/11. It’s outrageous, public and who dunnit isn’t at all obvious.
Curiously, even the outrageously obvious flaws in the ‘explanation’ reveal the certainty that we just don’t know the whole story and that those behind it really don’t care because they feel separate from and out of the reach of normal law. That could point to the Bush family or the Russian-Ukrainian-Israeli-Mafia (RUIM) or Al Qaeda or even others (the player(s) yet to be named).
I would also submit that the idea of a “false flag” operation is common to both (and the ‘93 trade center bombing). Thus, anybody coulda done it.
Next, I’d also add that we shouldn’t forget that the foot bone is connected to the leg bone and that while we’re in Iraq fighting over oil the Russians (commies, neo-commies and capitalist pigs) are still around and fighting for their share of a very large pie in both Russia and around the world. They’re very definately in the ‘great game’. After all, that’s what the Chechyn war is largely about — oil.
So, who has oil? Who wants to control it? Qui bono?
I suspect even the Russian billionaires (with or without the cooperation of some neocons in D.C.) could’ve been behind 9/11. Who can say otherwise with certainty?
Don’t consider just the P210 case independent of the rest of the craziness in the world today.
No Western false flag op is going to leave a glow in the dark trail all over London and on two aircraft, endangering public safety. Believe it or not, those things are considered.
And what would the purpose be, except to make the Russian spies look really incompetent? Even then, the press is still writing about what professionals it took, comparing it to James Bond. It’s Get Smart, all the way.
There’s a new thread about this up on the front page if you want to come discuss it over there.
I am suprized that Polonium-210 is poorly absorbed via the lungs due to the fact that the lungs are so vascular.
I haven’t had a chance to read through everything posted, but here are some considerations. The “gut-transfer” mechanism doesn’t prevent poisoning. It simply minimizes the chance. If the gut gets enough of a metal–especially if the metal has the same valence as a necessary trace mineral, it will be taken in.
Therefore, there are two ways to increase the dosage. First, increase the absolute amount, and second, to make the metal very finely divided so that the hydrochloric acid in the stomach will convert more of it into a metal chloride.
Both of these are the mechanisms by which depleted uranium is deposited in the body, so it’s not exactly impossible for it to happen this way with polonium-210. It’s a bit disingenuous for the news to repeat the minimum fatal body load as no more than a grain of sand, because that leads people to think that was what was used. A guaranteed fatal dose might be many times that. After all, Litvinenko was excreting it in noticeable quantities in his urine–that suggests excess to me.
While the minimum fatal amount might be a milligram, what’s to say that a couple of hundred milligrams, in the form of finely divided powder (>80 nanometer diameter) wasn’t used? Sprinkling that on one plate in the kitchen could easily cause it to be transported to the Italian’s nearby plate by even very mild air currents.
While any country with the facilities to reprocess spent nuclear fuel would have access to polonium-210, it’s worth mentioning that countries with active nuclear weapons manufacturing programs would be more likely to have access to lots of the material. It’s used as part of the iniator, because when it’s mixed with lithium-6, it’s a rich source of neutrons.
For what it’s worth.
I’m not so sure. I don’t have access to the full text article, but this paper suggests that lung exposure to Po isn’t so straightforward. My slightly inebriated reading of this abstract tells me that the radiation damage to the trachea and pharynx you describe is very consistent with inhalation of Carolina’s finest. My guess is that Po gloms onto charged surfaces (hence the film duster function), so it doesn’t go very far into the airway before finding a deep sink of (charged) fluids to bind.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/en…..t=Citation
It’s really, really hard to type with my hands waving like this, so I’ll stop guessing now…
Pete
anthrax…dioxin…polonium….sure do show up in strange ways….and even stranger it never gets resolved…at least it wasn’t Tylenol or we would never be able to open the package
Iran
NKorea
Pakistan
are all in the nuclear business & could be a source of the material as could Israel, India, Germany, France, Japan, Canada etc.
As several others have suggested, this isn`t, I think, as straight forward as it seems.
Wonder what John Robb is thinking about this episode ?
“Discovery consists of seeing what everybody has seen and thinking what nobody has thought.” – Albert von Szent-Gyorgyi
Whoever it is, they might have thought the method would let them get as far away as possible before the hit was revealed by Litvinenko’s illness. Did they expect the London pathologists to i.d. the substance so quickly? And did they anticipate that the victim(s) and perhaps the perpetrator(s) would decorate much of the British Isles with the stuff just in the course of moving around (Polonium is said to be excretable through sweat and saliva)? That aspect might be consistent with the smear-Putin hypothesis—make sure no one misses it—but it also could just indicate carelessness or amateurism.
I wonder too whether the perps were aware of how big the story would play. What with stories propogated through blogs and available for days after filing on millions of desktops through archives, it’s more like submitting data to a massively parallel processing system than the whisper the Bulgarian story got when it happened. Maybe someone somewhere is stunned that, instead of achieving a nice, obscure murder—at least conpared to following someone into their apartment in broad daylight and putting a bullet in their skull practically in view of the neighbors—they have put the names Litvinenko, Gaidar, and Polonium near the forefront of the minds of hordes.