Comments on: “The Math” http://firedoglake.com/2006/11/27/the-math/ Firedoglake weblog Thu, 26 Nov 2009 14:40:32 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Green http://firedoglake.com/2006/11/27/the-math/#comment-396687 Green Mon, 27 Nov 2006 21:33:48 +0000 http://www.firedoglake.com/2006/11/27/the-math/#comment-396687 <p>Oregonians interested in helping to defeat Gordon Smith<br /> and maybe doing so early should visit<br /> <a href="http://gordonsmithdishonors.us">http://gordonsmithdishonors.us</a></p> <p>and join the recall mailing list there.</p> Oregonians interested in helping to defeat Gordon Smith
and maybe doing so early should visit
http://gordonsmithdishonors.us

and join the recall mailing list there.

]]> By: Galloping Goose http://firedoglake.com/2006/11/27/the-math/#comment-396601 Galloping Goose Mon, 27 Nov 2006 20:22:40 +0000 http://www.firedoglake.com/2006/11/27/the-math/#comment-396601 <p>I know the witch from Maine is supposed to be untouchable because she’s so popular — but she should be a prime target. The Democrats don’t need to campaign against her — they need to campaign against the Number 2 Republican in the Senate — Trent Lott — for whom she will serve and vote with if the Republicans retake the Senate. I’m sure the good people of Maine aren’t likely to support a Mississippi segregationist for office — it’s just up to the Democrats to convince the people of Maine that a vote for Snowe is a vote for Lott.</p> I know the witch from Maine is supposed to be untouchable because she’s so popular — but she should be a prime target. The Democrats don’t need to campaign against her — they need to campaign against the Number 2 Republican in the Senate — Trent Lott — for whom she will serve and vote with if the Republicans retake the Senate. I’m sure the good people of Maine aren’t likely to support a Mississippi segregationist for office — it’s just up to the Democrats to convince the people of Maine that a vote for Snowe is a vote for Lott.

]]> By: Karen M http://firedoglake.com/2006/11/27/the-math/#comment-396456 Karen M Mon, 27 Nov 2006 18:14:44 +0000 http://www.firedoglake.com/2006/11/27/the-math/#comment-396456 <p>This Reality-based Math is what can be used to keep Joe Lieberman at bay. In two years, he may become a new symbol of what it means to be a lame duck … assuming (with good reason) that we have an even larger majority by then.</p> This Reality-based Math is what can be used to keep Joe Lieberman at bay. In two years, he may become a new symbol of what it means to be a lame duck … assuming (with good reason) that we have an even larger majority by then.

]]> By: DanD http://firedoglake.com/2006/11/27/the-math/#comment-396453 DanD Mon, 27 Nov 2006 18:12:24 +0000 http://www.firedoglake.com/2006/11/27/the-math/#comment-396453 <p>I hate to throw any water on the fire, but i’m not so sure things are all roses in the house. If you look at the Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) on a district by district basis, you’ll see that are 46 Dem House members in districts that lean Republican (and 25 at PVI 5 or greater) and only 13 Reps in Dem-leaning districts). In a year with a good Dem-wind blowing this isn’t a problem and of course incumbency helps, but in a less rosy year with the GOP dumping big bucks, this majority might not be as secure as it looks.<br /> Of course, PVI isn’t the be-all-and-end-all, so take it with a grain of salt. IMO, the real trick is to use the 50 state strategy to move public opinion (rather than try to triangulate around existing opinion). Move the 5s to 4s or 3s, etc.</p> I hate to throw any water on the fire, but i’m not so sure things are all roses in the house. If you look at the Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) on a district by district basis, you’ll see that are 46 Dem House members in districts that lean Republican (and 25 at PVI 5 or greater) and only 13 Reps in Dem-leaning districts). In a year with a good Dem-wind blowing this isn’t a problem and of course incumbency helps, but in a less rosy year with the GOP dumping big bucks, this majority might not be as secure as it looks.
Of course, PVI isn’t the be-all-and-end-all, so take it with a grain of salt. IMO, the real trick is to use the 50 state strategy to move public opinion (rather than try to triangulate around existing opinion). Move the 5s to 4s or 3s, etc.

]]> By: gleex http://firedoglake.com/2006/11/27/the-math/#comment-396433 gleex Mon, 27 Nov 2006 17:56:12 +0000 http://www.firedoglake.com/2006/11/27/the-math/#comment-396433 <p>Perfect.</p> <p><a href="#comment-396238"><em>Gentleman Jim @ 50 </em></a></p> <blockquote><p>Now is exactly the moment to go after the rigged voting machines with a vengeance. If Henry Waxman needs a target, this would be my Top priority.</p> <p>Had the Demos lost, the Rethugs would not have hesitated a heartbeat to cook the voting even further.</p> <p>This crap with the Diebold machines should be front and center in a Major Congressional made for TV expose. Drag the bastards from Diebold in front of the cameras and have a 14 year old geek hack their ‘electronic voting machine’ to shreds on live CSPAN. Something Joe Q Sixpack can grasp as truly criminal and obviously treasonous.</p></blockquote> Perfect.

Gentleman Jim @ 50

Now is exactly the moment to go after the rigged voting machines with a vengeance. If Henry Waxman needs a target, this would be my Top priority.

Had the Demos lost, the Rethugs would not have hesitated a heartbeat to cook the voting even further.

This crap with the Diebold machines should be front and center in a Major Congressional made for TV expose. Drag the bastards from Diebold in front of the cameras and have a 14 year old geek hack their ‘electronic voting machine’ to shreds on live CSPAN. Something Joe Q Sixpack can grasp as truly criminal and obviously treasonous.

]]> By: GrandmaJ http://firedoglake.com/2006/11/27/the-math/#comment-396409 GrandmaJ Mon, 27 Nov 2006 17:29:38 +0000 http://www.firedoglake.com/2006/11/27/the-math/#comment-396409 <p>NewDealFarmGirl - I live in Buffalo, just west of Minneapolis. I am taking the train. And Rayne, I am definitely going, and would also love to share a room. But no matter what, I am going even if I have a room in the outter burbs and cab in it every day.</p> NewDealFarmGirl – I live in Buffalo, just west of Minneapolis. I am taking the train. And Rayne, I am definitely going, and would also love to share a room. But no matter what, I am going even if I have a room in the outter burbs and cab in it every day.

]]> By: GrandmaJ http://firedoglake.com/2006/11/27/the-math/#comment-396405 GrandmaJ Mon, 27 Nov 2006 17:26:43 +0000 http://www.firedoglake.com/2006/11/27/the-math/#comment-396405 <p>Prof - As of Yearly Kos, if your wife is not an avid political followers, the museum and aquarium are wonderful. But as for the convention itself, with the success of last year and with our taking Congress, I suspect that many politcal types will be making their path to the convention. Personally, I would just like to meet some fellow dem/FDL travelers and attend some of the panels.</p> <p>Consider it an educational sabatical.</p> Prof – As of Yearly Kos, if your wife is not an avid political followers, the museum and aquarium are wonderful. But as for the convention itself, with the success of last year and with our taking Congress, I suspect that many politcal types will be making their path to the convention. Personally, I would just like to meet some fellow dem/FDL travelers and attend some of the panels.

Consider it an educational sabatical.

]]> By: Rayne http://firedoglake.com/2006/11/27/the-math/#comment-396358 Rayne Mon, 27 Nov 2006 16:45:19 +0000 http://www.firedoglake.com/2006/11/27/the-math/#comment-396358 <p>HotFlash, sure, probably ought to get Shez in the loop, too, since she may have some resources that will help.</p> <p>What’s the largest city in the district? Port Huron, Lapeer are there; is Sterling Heights part of the district?</p> <p>Are you a member of DFA or a Justice Caucus member? And are you going to be attending the next state Dem Party convention? Would like to see how many folks we can get in sync with you.</p> <p>And are you a MichiganLiberal.com reader?</p> HotFlash, sure, probably ought to get Shez in the loop, too, since she may have some resources that will help.

What’s the largest city in the district? Port Huron, Lapeer are there; is Sterling Heights part of the district?

Are you a member of DFA or a Justice Caucus member? And are you going to be attending the next state Dem Party convention? Would like to see how many folks we can get in sync with you.

And are you a MichiganLiberal.com reader?

]]> By: maebee http://firedoglake.com/2006/11/27/the-math/#comment-396355 maebee Mon, 27 Nov 2006 16:43:36 +0000 http://www.firedoglake.com/2006/11/27/the-math/#comment-396355 <p>CA-19: I wish we could find a worthy candidate to take down <strike>Radanovich</strike>. He is corrupt, but stealth. Even the local paper endorsed his opponent (<b>Cox</b>) and called him “one of the do-nothingest of the do-nothing 109th.” The district is gerrymandered, but a strong candidate could win. After all, <b>McNerney</b> took out <strike>Pombo</strike>, so it seems like we shoud be able to find a slayer for <strike>Randanovich</strike>. Congressional district in the foothills, anyone?</p> CA-19: I wish we could find a worthy candidate to take down Radanovich. He is corrupt, but stealth. Even the local paper endorsed his opponent (Cox) and called him “one of the do-nothingest of the do-nothing 109th.” The district is gerrymandered, but a strong candidate could win. After all, McNerney took out Pombo, so it seems like we shoud be able to find a slayer for Randanovich. Congressional district in the foothills, anyone?

]]> By: HotFlash http://firedoglake.com/2006/11/27/the-math/#comment-396348 HotFlash Mon, 27 Nov 2006 16:37:34 +0000 http://www.firedoglake.com/2006/11/27/the-math/#comment-396348 <p><a href="#comment-396318"><em>Shez @ 126</em></a></p> <blockquote><p><em>“Also — some seats coming vacant in MI, I’d live to see our very own Rayne in congress. She’d be a tiger.” </em></p> <p>Hotflash, I’m so with you there. Rayne if you ever decide to run I will move heaven and earth to make sure you get elected.</p></blockquote> <p>Not kidding Rayne, Candace Miller needs to go. And Debbie S in 2012. Would like to talk to you about what to do re MI-10, I have some ideas but need background in whicvh I am sure you will have.</p> <p>Can you contact me so we can phone talk some time soon?</p> Shez @ 126

“Also — some seats coming vacant in MI, I’d live to see our very own Rayne in congress. She’d be a tiger.”

Hotflash, I’m so with you there. Rayne if you ever decide to run I will move heaven and earth to make sure you get elected.

Not kidding Rayne, Candace Miller needs to go. And Debbie S in 2012. Would like to talk to you about what to do re MI-10, I have some ideas but need background in whicvh I am sure you will have.

Can you contact me so we can phone talk some time soon?

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