Most likely you remember the Karl Rove interview on NPR where he talked about "the math" going into the 2006 election (and my dissection of his craptastic inability to bluff). I may not be a "boy genius," but I can do a little math as well.
And the WaPo poses an interesting problem, that is well worth some thought. According to them, the Democrats took eight seats that are absolutely guaranteed to be targets for the GOP in the next election cycle: DeLay's district in TX, Foley's former district in FL, Ney's former district in OH, Sherwood's former district in PA, and then four other seats that the WaPo identifies as "two in Indiana, one in Kansas and one in North Carolina." Beyond that, the WaPo article says this:
But even if Republicans were to take back these seats, they would have to win about six others to take the House in 2008 — and those six are not so clear. The Democrats will have roughly a 14-seat advantage in the House.
On the Senate side, the GOP faces more trouble. The Republicans need at least one seat — and maybe two, depending on who wins the presidential race — to take back the upper chamber. But while 12 Democrats are up for reelection in 2008, 22 Republicans are.
Only a few Democrats and Republicans, however, are considered vulnerable. Still, Republicans could be buffeted by a string of retirements that would make the field more competitive. As of now, the two most vulnerable Democratic senators appear to be Tim Johnson (S.D.) and Mary Landrieu (La.), while the most vulnerable Republicans are Wayne Allard (Colo.), Norm Coleman (Minn.) and John E. Sununu (N.H.).
Now, I'm not exactly Albert Einstein or anything when it comes to complex mathematics, but it seems to me that "the math" says that the GOP is in a world of hurt when it comes to taking back either chamber of Congress.
But it's never a given on anything in politics — if we have learned nothing from this past election, let's take away that lesson, shall we? So, let's talk shop. It is never too early to start planning and, frankly, I would like to identify some folks who need to go, and start looking for the folks who ought to be running against them.
Think about it for a moment: if you had told Joe Sestak four or five years ago that he would take out Curt Weldon, he probably would have laughed in your face. Let alone Jon Tester or Jim Webb or Jerry McNerney or…well, let's just sit back for a moment and think about what happened in the last election cycle. And then let's start the process of thinking about who is next.
Because when I do "the math," I'd like it to add up to better people doing their job for all of America. That my version of "the math" could give Karl more heartburn? Well, that's just a side benefit, isn't it?
(For more on the linkage between finite differences and calculus — and where I got the above image — click here.)
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Christy!
And please stop mentioning that dreaded word, c-a-l-c-u-l-u-s. It was a preoccupation with politics instead of books during my freshman year in college that plunged this math star (scholarships, etc.) into his only “D,” and Calculus was the scene of the train wreck.
Meanwhile, we can nudge the political math — smudge out the old formulas that didn’t work, and try new ones.
They’re doing that in Idaho, getting it set up to turn blue again, as it was in the days of Cecil Andrus and Frank Church. Just you watch.
Continue and expand the 50 state strategy. Good morning all!
here’s one thing we have to keep our eye on;
accroding to brad blog and other reports, the machines WERE hacked, htey just didn’t hack them enough
rove DID have THE math, but the math was a little too shorr…the idea was to hack the maciines only barely enough to win…the problem is, they didn’t know what that number was, they counted on the base, they counted on some undecided…the undecided is where their math failed, the lost substantially in the undecided.
my point is, they won’t be so obtuse next election, if there is e-voting, they will report a landslide and screw THE math.
this is a priority, we have to get e-voting eleminated
here’s the solution
electric machines will give two receipts;
on receipt stays with the voter, if he’s willing to participate in exit polling, he shows the receipt, or the poller creates two lists, one with the receipt and one for people that agreed to poll but wouldn’t show their receipt.
that’s for the first receipt, and the voter gets to keep that one.
however, they get two receipts, one of the them is not theirs, it gets deposited before they leave the building
these will be used if the e-vote does not correspond to the exit polls
bing, problem solved
Ooh, Christy, I am so happy to see this subject finally come up. I dream of databases and probabilities at every level; at the state houses, and at the county supervisors level, and even at the city council level. And targeting based on the stats.
As for, “the math,” I was a lowly sociology student in college with a little statistics under my belt, and a buddy was a math major who tutored me every day in the cafeteria. After about a year of this, I finally “got it,” and I never felt so free.
If the Democrats have a strong candidate for President, the Republicans will be routed. If they have a weak candidate, they will hold steady or gain a small amount of ground.
Gore’s my choice. He’s already won it once, and he’s a stronger campaigner now. I think he’s learned his lesson about quick response to the smears, and will strike back quickly now.
Meanwhile, the Republicans have been exposed as corrupt liars. In 2006, the swift boating and lies didn’t have the same effect as they did in 2000-2004. The voters have wised up, somewhat. If we keep hanging the Iraq failure on Bush and his minions, and keep tying Republicans everywhere to him, they are going to be as popular as cockroaches in 2008.
The math for 2008 may involve an escalating war with Iran.
Much of the GOP math from here leans upon how easy everything will be once we are locked into WWIII.
Stop the Chinese, stop the Russians, with a resounding chorus of America Uber Alles . . .
perris – i like your math! NOW is the time to do something about voting integrity…. no one can accuse the dems of “sour grapes” (which seems to turn them into puddles of slush) after a house and senate win.
Morning Christy, all,
Spot-on post, ma’am, thank you. 2008 is going to be even more fun than 2006! However I have two things to say (before I have to go work for a living):
1.) voting fraud
2.) net neutrality
We can’t do the job without the tools.
Twisted Martini @ 4
Right. The Democrats could take one or both houses in the Texas state legislature in 2008. They picked up 8 seats in the Texas House in 2006, and a similar showing in 2008 will do it.
Mark B. in Austin TX @ 7
gore is the man…everyone will be wondering what would have happened if he took the office we elected him to
gore is the greatest president Americans have ever elected…he just didn’t get to serve
the only people that won’t vote for gore will be the base, he wins in a landslide
hook him up with fiengold and bing, an unbelievable administration
Craptastic corollary…wordplay.
Does anyone think there wouldn’t be such a big deal about NBC’s decision to call Iraq “civil war” if we hadn’t endured six freakin’ years of Rove-Luntz-Chee-knee wordsmithing with the language to the point that nobody believes any catchphrase they come up with anymore except the koolaid krowd. No hunger, indeed….
HotFlash @ 10
please add to this number three, but I would put number three second and net neutrality third
anyway, one of the biggest problems in American politics is election financing
no more private financing of politiciosn, no personhood to corporations
no buying law
The math for 2008 may involve an escalating war with Iran.
With whose army? The one good thing about Iraq is that the armed forces are now so overextended that there is no way that Bush could invade another country. Not to say that he isn’t stupid enough to want to try, but the generals can’t make soldiers out of thin air, and there isn’t going to be a draft, so it won’t happen.
Perris, just a quick note. I totally agree with your analysis but it needs to be paper ballots. A ‘receipt’ is not a ‘ballot’. Paper ballots are the real legal document. If it’s just a receipt it can be argued that the machine total is correct, even if it doesn not match the receipts.
BTW, here in Canada we vote on hand-counted paper ballots. Our election results are ready in a couple of hours or less. Fraud is still possible but not on a national scale.
Former Democrat Coleman here in Minnesota is very vulnerable, and his most likely opponent on the horizon at this point is none other than Al Franken. If Franken runs this will be a fun campaign to watch.
But Christy asked for actual names to fill into the math formulas. Who is vulnerable on the R side? Who are our heroes on the D side? Who are the candidates for the next rounds of Blue American organizing and support? The Daily Kos diary on Idaho had this:
And in the comments we also see:
This discussion of running a second time:
PS, I left an open italics on the previous thread. Hope someone can fix it.
As for the Republicans, I have fonted them as strike-outs — our goal.
HotFlash @ 16
Absolutely! I have never understood Americans’ facination with technological solutions. Canadians get it done on paper, and the results come out – often faster, and usually more accurately – than our stupid techno-shit.
Mark B. in Austin TX @ 15
there it is, and we have to make it the concervatives choice point blank
I don’t want ANYONE saying we left Iraq because of the democrats, I want it to be CLEAR it is a choice the republicans are making
therefore, a resolution to be proposed ON THE FLOOR AS SOON AS THE DEMOCRATS TAKE OFFICE;
first point out THE GENERALS say nothing can be accomplished with less then 400,000 troops
then use that, say there is only one way to maintain the Iraqi campaign;
A 100 PERCENT DRAFT ON EVERY BULL FINANCING THE WAR.
the option will be to vote
1) NO FINANCING WITHOUT TROOP SUPPORT
2) no financing even with a draft
the democrats will vote no financing without troop support
the republicans will vote no financing and NO DRAFT
we have to make it THe REPUBLCIANS that take away the war powers of president bush
I assume Howie is working on the target candidates as we speak. Am I correct?
Mark B. in Austin TX @ 15
These guys like air wars; no troops on the ground, just proxies.
Minnesotachuck @ 17
Waddya think about using strikeouts and bolds to highlight our targets and our ammunition, so that the “naming” comments that Christy asked for will stand out amongst the general discussions that a morning thread always stimulates?
Just “select” (highlight) someone’s name and then clink on the
Sor B buttons above the writing area.Too many variables exist at the present time to do much more than ‘just figuring’ math.
If I knew the quality of our candidate for president relative to theirs, the status of the nation’s economy the situation in Iraq on Labor day 2008, then I could do some ‘real figuring’ math. Still, this is a fun topic to consider and ‘just figuring’ it does look good.
Interesting diary over on Kos about a Congressional Transparency group working on putting up a Wiki site to track activity of each congressional committee.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…../18572/433
Franken taking on Coleman would be awesome. Coleman better be worried. Just on the verbal jousting alone, Al should easily mop the floor with him.
Re: Rove’s “math”.
I firmly beleive that Rove thought he had the fix sufficiently in – but underestimated the amount by which he needed the e-machines tweaked.
Didn’t I read somewhere that Lieberman’s last two opponents both, “coincidentally”, tallied 488,077 votes?
Fix these machines!!
You asked for specific names.
Scott Garrett, NJ 05, could be routed by a strong candidate with financial and people support. Garret occupies Marge Roukema’s old seat. It is true that the district is predominantly Republican, but Garrett is so far to the right of NJ Republicanism that the only way he got elected the first time is because of knee-jerk voting down the Republican line. People really didn’t know who he was, and many still don’t.
Aronsohn ran hard against him this time, but he had no real support financially or otherwise.
we also have tt re alocate districts, I wouldn’t stop where our strenght tas taken away, I would redistict to make it as impossible to loose as we can possibly make it
Wesley Clark over Gore, I think. Gore had his chance and could not get his speaking attitude in a mode to not annoy the masses. He was even annoying ME at the end there in 2000.
I truly do not mean to be the obnoxious grammarian (my friends would laugh at me even saying that) but the sentence in the master post should be: “It is never too early to start planning”
“too” as in “excessively” not “to” as in “approaching”
(I only mention it because I take this blog seriously and fear some others might not because they are looking for something to reject it for.)
perris @ 29
Isn’t there still a case pending before the S.Ct as to the legality of the last bout of gerrymandering?
One more time to propose my strikeout and boldfacing suggestion for collecting names here.
workingclassannie @ 28
Now I’ll crawl back into my sleeping bag.
How about the math involved in selling war bonds? We used to do it in WW2–you see it in Clint Eastwood’s “Faith of our Fathers.” Do you think if we financed our wars this way again, that the 101st Fighting Keyboarders would put their money where their mouths are and pony up big time? It would be a nice intersection of reality with fantasy that doesn’t involve forcing them to go and fight (which we already have seen them duck, as they have more important things to do)
Darkie 30 — umm, Clark had his chance, too, you know. Not “electable” like Kerry.
Yeesh. I have come to hate that damned phrase.
As if Dubya ever was electable.
jayt @ 31
Take it to the limit!
Tropic of Calculus!
And let epsilon be less than zero, just for a change. Nobody’s positive all the time…
Word on the street here is that John Warner is retiring and George Allen has his sights on the seat. He could become the only person in Virginia history to lose two Senate seats! Even better, Ed Gillespie is the favorite to become the new chair of the Virginia GOP. He has no Virginia background, his connections are at the national level, and he was an advisor to the loser Allen campaign, so my admittedly optimistic take is that he’ll bring nothing to the legislative elections next year other than money, and give Allen the inside track to the nomination for Warner’s seat. If Mark Warner runs for Senate, he’ll beat Allen (or anyone else) hands down; if not, I suspect we’ve got several others who could beat Mr. Macaca if he’s not running as an incumbent.
As for 2008 candidates, should Larry Kissell fail to unseat Robin Hayes in North Carolina’s 8th congressional district in the current race (which is still undecided! The hand recount is being done this week — Larry is down by approximately 300 votes out of some 120,000), then he would be a terrific choice to go up against Hayes again in 2008. He’s come so close to winning this time — and may still — and has done so with minimal support from the national party, and after being outspent $1.5 million to $500,000 by Hayes. He’s been an outstanding grass roots/ netroots candidate and clearly can win in two years!
jayt @ 27
Dump these machines!!
More on perris’ comment about redistricting from Matt Stoller over at MyDD:
Interesting.
Prof @ 40
interesting is a nice word, neccessary is better
RT @ 36
Let’s not go all Eagles on this, OK?
We have too many Republican whores here in Michigan holding House seats. DCCC gave these guys virtually nothing in the way of help, either; now we’re stuck with that nasty piece of work Pete Hoekstra.
One district went even redder, picking a more conservative jerk over their moderate Repug.
We had high quality candidates, too, like Jim Marcinkowski, Nancy Skinner, and Blue American candidate Tony Trupiano.
Seems like a state that can elect two decent Dem Senators could at least get the assist it needs to get equally decent Dems in the House.
if democrats want to start a long reign in control of congress, they need to:
1) grow a spine and govern on principle, not cowardice, timidity, and triangulation.
2) they need to remember who they serve and NOT be republicans when it comes to serving the lobbyist’s and lobbyist’s client’s interests. Its really past time for some Teddy Roosevelt style trust busting when it comes to media empires.
3) they need to take out US corporate media. If they can’t change the democratic-dissing tone of virtually every discussion and every news event on the MSM, then they won’t be in power for long. Too much information is in the hands/controlled-by way too few corporate chieftains all too eager to aid the cause of the cult of republicanism to the detriment of the average American.
4) they better fix the voting systems and voting processes or republicans will continue to steal elections.
Keep in mind, the midterm sweep only came about because of an administration and republican congress so vile and inept that prior to their existence you couldn’t dream up such a dastardly situation – it just wouldn’t have been credible. The likes of such a horrid condition are hopefully never to return, which means democrats need to command the political policy and dialogue if they want to stick around in the majority.
.
The way to hold Congress in 2008 is simple: do things that benefit the people. Raise the minimum wage, pass that unionization by card-check law, require Medicare to negotiate the best drug prices it can, protect our chemical plants and transport, and pass a new AUMF for Iraq that authorizes force protection during the course of a staged withdrawal over no more than a year’s time, and nothing beyond that.
If the Senate filibusters, or Bush vetos, that new AUMF, then when the shit hits the fan, it’ll be reaffirmed as 100% their shit.
Jay @ 39
Uh, yeah, what he said.
(after all, it’s hard to argue agaisnt a fellow “Jay”.)
correction:
‘Its really past time for some Teddy Roosevelt style trust busting when it comes to media empires.’ should be at the end of item (3), not (2)
BTW, FirePups, Jane got quoted in L.A. Times about KO, posted in a Recommended Diary at DKos, too.
pluege @ 47
Can you just imagine the “Waxman [Truman] Commission?”
Now is exactly the moment to go after the rigged voting machines with a vengeance. If Henry Waxman needs a target, this would be my Top priority.
Had the Demos lost, the Rethugs would not have hesitated a heartbeat to cook the voting even further.
This crap with the Diebold machines should be front and center in a Major Congressional made for TV expose. Drag the bastards from Diebold in front of the cameras and have a 14 year old geek hack their ‘electronic voting machine’ to shreds on live CSPAN. Something Joe Q Sixpack can grasp as truly criminal and obviously treasonous.
Larry Kissell recount fund. Many people voted with a check or X instead of filling in the bubble, and a hand count will pick up those votes. He believes there are way more than 300 of these, and that he will win.
Larry loaned about $40,000 of his personal money to the campaign, which is a lot for a schoolteacher. There are no rich Democrats in NC-08. The state party has already chipped in the legal maximum.
I hope we will help him generously with the recount and his debt, and then encourage him to run again for ‘08.
BlueSinger @ 38
A little unfinished business still needs some cleaning up. It seems to me that
Christopher Shaysis a little lonely up there in the northeast and could use a little more time with his familiy, andMean Jeanreally needs to be sent back to Ohio from DC.As for challengers, well – to quote my old c*lculus professor – “the rest is left as an exercise for the student.” Oh wait a minute – that’s us. . .
(props to Prof for the strikethrough/bold suggestion)
BTW I just opened my Los Angeles Times, yes a real mewspaper, and there was a large article on Keith Olbermann.. complete with a quote from Jane Hamsher and a mention of “liberal blog firdoglake.com”
Incidentally, for any political junkies who can’t wait two years, we’ve got the entire Virginia legislature up for re-election in 2007. It’s the lowest turnout election of the four year cycle (we have some sort of election every year), because there are no federal candidates and no gubernatorial election. That makes it the time when activists like us can have the maximum impact.
It’s imperative that we retake the legislature by 2009 to have control over redistricting, and if we push hard and keep the blue wave going, we could get at least one house this year. The campaigns won’t really start up until the beginning of the year (though we have candidates lined up for many of the seats already.) Email me at razorsharpwit AT gmail DOT com if you want to help out.
RT @ 45
nice stuff here.
I want to frame it correctly also, when we get a bill through concerning national security I want the democrats to point out “we trtied to do this when there was republican control but they wouldn’t allow it”
I want to take every illusion the republicans have and turn it against them.
every integrity and oversite bill, I want the democrats to say “we have to insure there is no corruption, we couldn’t get these safeguards against corruption while the republicans held the majotity, they wouldn’t allow the bill”
I want tax give backs to the MIDDLE CLASS, and I want to TRUMPET those tax givebacks, I want those givebacks to be funded by the gifts the president gave to wealthy people, AND I WANT IT MADE CLEAR WE ARE RETURNING WHAT WAS STOLEN FROM THEM AND FUNDING IT FROM WHO RECEIVED THE BOOTY.
the democrats have NOT marketed their agenda the way it needs to be marleted
instead of ‘raise the minumum wage”, I want the democrats to say;
“the time is over where a corporattion gets welfare funded by the middle class, if a corporation wants labor, they have to pay a wage that allows families to put healthy food on the table, allows them to give health care to their kids, and allows them to put their kids through college.”
I want it to look like a company is STEALING from the middle class when they don’t pay a living wage
as far as unions, I want the union to be regarded as BENEVOLENT again, the republican propaganda machine has made the union look like some kind of pox on our economy.
I want it made CLEAR, all a union does is provide the tools for a laborer to get fair market for their wares, a corporation has to bargain for everything they buy, their rent, their equiptment, their raw material and they HAVE TO BARGAIN FOR THEIR LABOR
as laborers, WE are more important then the corporation, this is a govenrment FOR PEOPLE AND BY PEOPLE
we as democrats will grant that there are times a union bargains a deal which makes it impossible for companies to turn profit
THIS IS THE COMPANIES PROBLEM, not ours, just like their rent
it’s all in how we frame our positition
Some political speculations to ponder:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15…..mode/1098/
RT @
45
And pass the stem cell funding bill, dammit!
Re third-party presidential candidate, two words:
Ralph Nader.
Let’s see some progress on the learning curve this time. Of course unfixing the voting machines would be cool too.
[Off-topic]
Prof, thank you for your Underground Railroad story on the previous thread, and for the great metaphor of “lanterns in the tower”.
perris @
5
Oh, the deal is that the Republicans on Rove’s GOTV lists did indeed vote on November 7.
But a non-trivial number of them voted for Democrats.
In other words, a lot of the people who were Republicans two years or one year or even a few months ago are no longer Republicans, thanks to Bush.
kathryn @ 57
and get everyone to watch inconvenient truth
I bet if we get inconvenient truth aired on broadcast television, with a huge marketing campaign to boot, al gore gets drafted presidential candidate
NBC and MSNBC have decided to call Iraq War a civil war!!!
We folks in NH did some heavy lifting this time around.
If we can turn out John Sununu Jr. that will be icing on the cake.
Also, let’s not forget that the evangelicals may decide to go it alone.
Radical former judge Roy Moore is making the noises about an evangelical third party.
-GSD
Biodun @ 62
Traitors! Cowards!
Don’t they realize they have to wait until the Decider decides what to call it?
-GSD
We would like to thank Karl Rove for getting out some of our votes.
-GSD
Spot on as usual Christy.
Now that the Democrats have both houses, it is imperitive that they DO SOMETHING CONSTRUCTIVE with them.
The Republicans swept the Houses our of a similar contempt.
How much of that contempt was earned and how much manufactured is, of course, subject to debate.
I still blame Al Gore and the Democratic policy advisors who ran his 2000 election for allowing it to be close enough to be stolen.
The lesson to be learned there is not that close elections can be stolen. That is a given.
The lesson is to:
DO SOMETHING
STAND FOR SOMETHING
and
FOLLOW THROUGH
(sorry for shouting)
Oh, an
Hiya Karl
^_-
nya nyanya nya nya
Peterr @ 52
Uhhhh. What are “props”? (Not quite as having to ask a younger faculty member what “bling-bling” meant.)
Here on the beautiful coast, we still use optically scanned paper. Has all the goodness of electronic machines (speed, “accuracy”, and maybe efficiency) plus it’s got a long history so it works well, and you’ve got the original scantron-like paper ballot to store after the scan is submitted. There is no huge overhead cost to buy and maintain all the electronic voting terminals, plus keeping them online and working during the day.
All we need is a receipt for the voter spec’ing their vote tally so they can check it with their intent. Receipts are easy, just add thermal printer.
It seems so simple.
(It was lovely to see Jane quoted in my morning LA Times…)
Swordswoman @ 59
Surely. Didn’t know if it was going to look too personal.
But we are surely holding up lanterns. And even a few writers in the Corporate Media are starting to see little gleams of light.
Prof: Props = Proper Credit.
:-)
Happy Monday everybody!
The DOD reports an F-16 fighter jet has gone down in Iraq.
That hasn’t happened very often.
-GSD
marksb 69 — but “errors” can occur in tabulation, and more “errors” can occur when the county fails to print enough ballots and has to resort to provisional or hand ballots that must be counted separately from the scanned ballots.
We have optical scan voting here in MI, and both of these conditions have applied within the last year. In the first case, the tabulation errors happened when the tabulation software failed and the “patch” was slow in arriving and being implemented; had not the clerk known the numbers and felt confident about them, the outcome could have been flawed. In the second case, the result was a protracted period without a certified final outcome. Not good, when two races were within 600 votes and 30 votes respectively.
I’m about ready to advocate paper ballots.
Prof @ 68
It’s short for “proper recognition.” Think of it as a footnote of sorts – acknowledging sources and all that.
John LeCarre’ in 2003.
(Snip)
The Bushies are riding high. Now 88 per cent of Americans want the war, we are told. The US defence budget has been raised by another $60 billion to around $360 billion. A splendid new generation of nuclear weapons is in the pipeline, so we can all breathe easy. Quite what war 88 per cent of Americans think they are supporting is a lot less clear. A war for how long, please? At what cost in American lives? At what cost to the American taxpayer’s pocket? At what cost – because most of those 88 per cent are thoroughly decent and humane people – in Iraqi lives?
(End)
I still go back to this essay time and again, it is stunning in how it lays it all out before it ever happened.
-GSD
More on the Turncoat:
(emphasis mine)
http://www.rawstory.com/news/2….._1127.html
Rayne @ 73
This should be easily fixed with operational procedures. The fact that they happened indicates that someone at management level wasn’t doing their job and there should be a hearing and a couple of firings. Both of the problems listed could well happen with paper ballots as well. There’s nothing like professional operations management to keep a system running smoothly. My point is simply to use the speed of electronic tabulation and reporting, with the tracking of paper ballots, with the addition of a paper receipt to assure the voter that the tabulation program didn’t change their vote when scanned.
marksb @ 69
And you can mail those scannable ballots to people’s houses. This encourages folks to vote who might not find it so convenient to get to a polling booth. Voters put the ballot in the “secrecy envelope” and drop it in the mail after signing the back of the “mailing envelope.” As the ballots are processed, a poll-worker compares every signature on a computer screen to the signature on the voter registration card (which were all scanned in). This occurs all day long. Then the boxes of ballots go on to the counting room. At 8 pm they are fed into the scanning machines for counting.
If people didn’t put the ballot into the mail, they can still drive up to one of the election white “mail boxes” around the city up until 8 pm, and drop in the ballot. Poll watchers from both parties can stand nearby, to document that everyone in line at 8 pm gets to put his or her ballot in the ballot mail box, but nobody is allowed into the line after 8 pm.
If someone didn’t get a ballot, he or she can show up at a county elections office, have registration checked online, and one isn’t found right away, vote a provisional ballot so that in a close election those registrations are checked more thoroughly against the paper registratoin files and perhaps counted.
Meanwhile, at county election headquarters, D and R poll watchers are observing the validation room (where signatures on unopened envelopes are checked), the counting room (where ballots are opened and scanned), and the front counter (where people try to vote, to make sure that they are offered a provisional ballot and not just turned away).
All this happens in Oregon. Voting has been only by mail for several years.
Peterr @ 74
rayne, if you’re still here, I tried visiting your blog to pay some props but i couldn’t comment without some kind of google account which I do not want
just wanted you to know I stop by but don’t comment
Senator Obama is setting up committiees for a run for the presidency here in Iowa. It’s happening today or tommorrow. But, no official word that he’s actually running.
Mornin’ Firedogs,
GSD,
seems someone else got it right in 03 as well
http://stevegilliard.blogspot……table.html
iowa christine @ 81
obama drinks teh koolaid.
gore does not
Rayne @ 73
Doesn’t happen if the county has to mail a ballot to the home address of every registered vote.
In addition, ballots are kept on hand at county election headquarters.
If a person is registered, but homeless, he or she can list “county election headquarters” as a residence address, and can vote there.
Happens in Oregon.
here is my conspiracy theory
he had hackers ready to sway votes imperceptibly and just cover the gap between winning and losing
there is evidence that a network of hackers worked for republicans
i am working on an article and still in the research
what set me here was a comment that cheney made when he said after a meeting several months ago when ratings began to plummet, and he commented that he was reassured
at the time everyone was turning on the administration
so i think THE MATH was the gap in votes and voter turnout that he and his group could turn by hacking
he misjudged that the actual turnout and anger was much much higher than the gap he calculated
I think the Democrats should consider challenging Sam Brownback of Kansas. He’s an embarrassment to many Kansans. No one thought Ryan was beatable, but Nancy Boyda prevailed. Too many assumptions are made about Kansas being a red state. The moderate Republicans of Kansas have been driven crazy by the evangelicals, and these moderates helped elect Boyda. They also crossed over to oust Phill Kline an extreme neo-con hellbent on reviewing private medical records of women who had abortions. Brownback is one of the evangelicals.
Also, I think it would be a major mistake if Congress didn’t address the lack of a paper trail with electronic voting now while we have the majorities in both houses. That should be priority number one.
Joe Lieberman(TIPBP-CT)
Turd in Punch-Bowl Party.
-GSD
OT but Brian Leher from WNYC (NPR) just called the people who predicted disaster in Iraq pessimist.
Speaking of numbers tens of thousands of votes across the country were not counted including several thousand in Ohio’s 12th. I still say without fraud on the part of the Greedy Old Perverts it would have been a 40 seat swing.
maccabee @ 85
I should have saved the link, but there is ever video of people replacing the thumb drice
make sure you click on brads blog for your research, what you will find out from his is brilliant
Watch for falling stocks too.
-GSD
Morning all — had a meeting first thing this morning, so I had to post and run. Catching up on comments now. Thought this would be a fun topic for you guys to start off Monday. :)
Rayne @ 48
to wit:
Mill Valley? What happened to Oregon?
Prof at 92 — Jane has to occasionally move around for business meetings and such, but she still has her place in Oregon.
And:
LA Times story.
(Yup, they made you clickable, Christy and Jane.)
perris — sorry about that, but I’ve had my share of trolls and comment spammers; the account requirement keeps them to a minimum. I’d encourage you to open a Google account for the purposes of commenting, just use fake info to register. I’ve got a boatload of Google accounts for different purposes, including one for commenting. Or just send me an email via the link at the site. Thanks for stopping by!
GSD — think we’re seeing two different issues at play in stock market; first is the Chinese central bank saying it has too many dollars, and the second is the market’s stupidity about Walmart. Walmart is forecasting slower sales and taking the market down with it, but the market doesn’t recognize the impact of folks like me who have sustained a long-term boycott against Walmart. At some point the affect of a critical mass of shoppers avoiding Walmart makes an impact on their sales — and the financial industry isn’t talking about that 800 lb. gorilla in the room.
The real question is whether some other retailers will have better than expected sales for this period; we won’t know that for a while (and I say this on Cyber Monday).
So, while we’re on the topic of finding more Blues and helping them win in 2008, would someone fill me in on exactly why Yearly Kos would be a blast.
I’m trying to convince Mrs. Prof that spending the summer driving across the country and back would be interesting, and I’m wondering whether signing up for Yearly Kos in the Windy City would be worth doing. (It’s just a few hours from the farm on the underground railroad.)
Two things:
1) If you think the Senate is a 51/49 split, then you are not taking into account Joey L. He’s a Republican shill, bought and paid for. That makes it a 50/50 split on good days. Guesss who votes in a tie?
2) Voting machines manufactured and controlled by the wrong people.
3) The political environment in the month before the election will not be allowed to happen that way again. That was a fluke. Happily, for freedom and democracy everywhere.
(Ok three things)
Mill Valley, home of BJ Honeycutt!
Prof — tell Mrs. Prof we’ll be there. US. FirePups. People you hang with and chat with every day, people who aren’t students, people to which you could put a face and real name after investing this much time in them. And we’d love to meet Mrs. Prof, because she surely has some impact on what you bring to the dialogue here.
I’ve already made arrangements to leave my kids with the grandparents and fly into ORD from their hometown. What about the rest of you?
And I think I may need a roommate, going to be a chunk of my disposable income to do YKos.
Looks like some worthwhile research work is coming up at the labs on Capitol Hill:
Morning All,
Speaking of Net Neutrality, tomorrow there is a rally in Lansing at the Capitol, before they vote on it soon here in Michigan:
Next Tuesday, November 28, at noon join the SavetheInternet.com Coalition and others at the State Capitol in Lansing for a rally to protect Internet freedom.
WHAT: Rally to protect Internet freedom
WHEN: Next Tuesday — November 28 — 12 p.m. – 1 p.m.
WHERE: Capitol Building in Lansing, 1st Floor Rotunda
WHO: Free Press, MoveOn.org Civic Action and the SavetheInternet.com Coalition — media will be in attendance.
I am going to try to be there, as it is only 3 hours from Indy. It’s gonna depend on lots of things, though. What are the dates again?
Twisted — it’s August 2-7 at McCormick Center.
See you there!
A whole week might be tough to swing, but I can definitely get up there for a few days. I’m gonna have to start selling it to the wife now…
Glenn Greenwald is on fire about Jane Harman.
Mike Ferguson in NJ-07 has got to go. Linda Stender came within a 2 point striking distance but couldn’t get over the strong anti-tax libertarian streak of this district. (I canvassed throughout October and heard a lot complaints about taxes)
Anyway, I’d support Linda again. I think she could convert this district next time. But she has got to work on her message and stop skipping around. For example. I appreciate that she is pro-choice but this was not a pro-choice election. This was a “Why the f@#$ are they spending so much of NJ’s hard earned tax money in Iraq and what did Mike do to stop it?” election. She could have pounded his ass with that but only introduced that theme in her debate closing remarks.
Still, I think she has great potential. So, Linda Stender for NJ-07. Again. This time, for sure.
Per me at #62: I watched NBC’s Today Show and MSNBC newscast before I left home this morning, and here’s the link to what I saw:
http://newsbusters.org/node/9271
Now that MSM has decided to start calling the Iraq War a “civil war,” this is definitely the beginning of the end for W’s private war that he’s been trying to sell as the War on Terror. Since when is it America’s business to suppress a civil war in another country? Does anyone wanna bet that the troops will start coming home at the latest three months from now?
If the Democrats govern in a sensible way showing just how adult they are, the 2008 elections will be another win for the them. I would love to list what would be thought of as sensible but the thoughtful among us can all come up with such a list. A vendetta is not one of the list’s items.
First time posting…
I would love to see a real Dem take on John McHugh in NY’s 23rd congressional district in ‘08. I offered help to both the campaign and the democrats in Clinton County during my long summer visit and never heard back from either. It is a really polarized community–liberal SUNY and conservative “townies.” A down to earth Dem is what ’s needed there.
Prof @
96
I was in Las Vegas for YearlyKos I. One attendee I met said it was like meeting your long lost family for the first time and feeling an instant sense of belonging. If you have ever wondered what all these posters are like, you should go. They are the warmest, friendliest, most sincere brainiacs who ever partied hardy. You will not regret it.
And the seminars are lively and spirited. I went to one on Southern strategy where the panelists nearly came to blows. Excellent fun.
Besides, Chicago has some of America’s best architecture. And the lake is beautiful.
GSD @ 90
The real problem may ge the falling dollar.
furysmom @ 109
Welcome to the Lake, furysmom.
Ever think of running for Congress yourself?
Getting Dems elected is a goal I share with the people at FDL, but, according to this NY Times article, the new Dems may be planning to govern a lot like the old Republicans. If this becomes the case, it’s going to be hard to convince voters that Democrats are responsive to the will of the people.
http://tinyurl.com/y6lg5n
As Power Shifts in New Congress, Pork May Linger
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK
WASHINGTON, Nov. 24 — Senators Ted Stevens of Alaska and Daniel K. Inouye of Hawaii are the best of friends in the Senate, so close they call each other brother. Both are decorated veterans of World War II. They have worked together for nearly four decades as senators from the two youngest and farthest-flung states. And they share an almost unrivaled appetite for what some call political pork.
Mr. Stevens, an 83-year-old Republican, and Mr. Inouye, an 82-year-old Democrat, routinely deliver to their states more money per capita in earmarks — the pet projects lawmakers insert into major spending bills — than any other state gets. This year, Alaska received $1.05 billion in earmarks, or $1,677.27 per resident, while Hawaii got $903.9 million, or $746.05 per resident, according to Taxpayers for Common Sense, a nonpartisan group that tracks such figures.
Representative Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic leader, and many Democratic candidates have railed for months against wasteful “special interest earmarks” inserted into bills “in the dark of night.” Now their party’s electoral victories mean that Mr. Stevens will hand Mr. Inouye the gavel of the Senate defense appropriations subcommittee, which presides over the largest pool of discretionary spending and earmarks. But if the Democratic leaders are talking about “earmark reform,” that may be news to Mr. Inouye.
“I don’t see any monumental changes,” Mr. Inouye said in a recent interview. He plans to continue his subcommittee’s approach to earmarks, he said. “If something is wrong we should clean house,” he said, “but if they can explain it and justify it, I will look at it…”
“What is good for the goose is good for the gander,” Senator Patty Murray, the Washington Democrat who is set to become chairwoman of the transportation subcommittee, said last fall in a speech defending an Alaska Republican’s allocation of more than $200 million in federal money for a bridge to remote Gravina, Alaska, with a population of 50. It became notorious as the “Bridge to Nowhere.”
“I tell my colleagues, if we start cutting funding for individual projects, your project may be next,” Ms. Murray warned. To anyone who might vote against the bridge, Ms. Murray threatened that her subcommittee would be “taking a long, serious look at their projects…”
Woman Faces Fine for Wreath Peace Sign
and the head of the homeowners’ association won’t accept no democratic voting if he wants the damned thing down:
furysmom @ 109
Assuming your registration is elsewhere, what about finding a down to earth Dem among the townies? Having grown up in a similar situation, I know there are probably a number of them there – they’re just a bit harder to spot than their campus siblings – and they may be able to persuade a number of their townie friends that “down to earth” is just what the nation needs right now.
They’ve already shown they’re willing to lie, cheat and steal to win – we have two years to revamp the voting system so they can’t. I would hope that’s what we do.
Prof at 113 — I used to do legal work for a homeowner’s association. It’s tough when someone considers the group their own personal fiefdom. *g*
My list:
Electronic voting machines; ditch ‘em or fix ‘em If we let this one slide we’re doomed.
Corporate media consolidation: break ‘em up or break ‘em down.
Restore our civil rights
End the war
Investigations!
Fifty states, fifty states, fifty states
Take out bad apples of your own party in the primaries
Take out bad apples of the other party in the general
The voting machines really are the most important. An electronic system could be made to work (voting machine, which knows about the candidates, produces a paper ballot, which goes to an unconnected sorting machine that doesn’t know about anything but where the marks it’s sorting are supposed to be, and then the piles go to a third unconnected machine that simply counts the ballots and doesn’t look at them at all.)
But the direction we are going, with the machines more networked and having more local knowledge is doomed to abuse. The only thing that saved us this time was that they had to decide how much to cheat by, and where, several weeks before the election. Once they have everything “on line” and cane adjust the tallies on the fly, all is lost.
I know this post was a call for specific targets, but I don’t agree with that approach. Target all races, and work on the issues, not on winning the next election.
–MarkusQ
Rayne @
99
Figuring out some sort of roomie thing for pups would be great…i’d rather have a roomie and donate the difference to a worthy cause (like TRex’s book, hint, hint).
I hope to drive down from Minneapolis with my college-age daughter and her friends (they have friends in Chi. & visit several times a year).
Meeting others in real-space and being part of a large group of like-minded good folk is always uplifting and inspiring for me.
I’m in San Francisco, my folks and my brother and his family are still there. You are right about the approach, but I can’t even get a return call or email from the local dems. I’m assuming the volunteer base is spread thin, or wary of SF liberals
We’ve got a shitty day in paradise- it’s raining- as an arctic storm descends on Southern Californina. It’ll be gone tommorrow- but in the meantime southern cal translplants try to remember what they used to do in the winter.
Rayne @
34
My .02
Al Gore. He has the name recog, he did win once (oh, if only that could be proven strongly enough to campaign on!). The war is more urgent but global warming/environment is the most impotant issue facing everyone on this planet. Healthcare and all that is deck chairs if we starve, freeze, or drown. Anyone worried about the earth will happy to vote for him.
Wes Clark would be good, I guess. He’s a warrior who can get us out of this Iraq mess but somehow don’t think ‘cut and n’ will be an issue in 2008 Our kids will be home or dead by then.
Howard Dean. I know ‘promised not to run for pres’ but I know I’d trust his honour and vision for America.
Also — some seats coming vacant in MI, I’d live to see our very own Rayne in congress. She’d be a tiger.
NewDealFarmGrrrlll — good idea, probably worth a board or post of some sort to match up roomies between now and the convention.
I’m going to be flying to/from Marquette MI; don’t think I can do the entire convention, but I’m going to do part of it, just waiting for the agenda to commit.
Rayne,
“it’s August 2-7 at McCormick Center.”
Slight correction? It says August 2-5 on the YKos link. A four day event, and last year the last day was a half day?
I know I’m totally looking forward to it! I’m going to drive from Lansing since it is only 3 hours away. I’m a smoker so I’ll be looking for a smoker roommate(s) or traveling companions.
furysmom @ 119
Maybe during next summer’s visit, walking around in a “Had Enough?” t-shirt might flush some of them out. Find a couple in 07, and the 08 visit could really be something.
HotFlash — heh. Funny. Thanks for the vote of confidence. I’ve decided not to run for state or federal office until the kids are out of school, though; running for office is grueling and requires absolute commitment of the candidate if they really want to win. Would not be fair to my kids since they already have one parent who is overbooked and not home much because of their job. Got to live the family values here.
But I may be running for school board. There are some issues here that definitely need some butt-kicking.
“Also — some seats coming vacant in MI, I’d live to see our very own Rayne in congress. She’d be a tiger.”
Hotflash, I’m so with you there. Rayne if you ever decide to run I will move heaven and earth to make sure you get elected.
Mornin Redd- back from the golf course with no blows struck in anger- or in any other way..
You’re right that the lay of the land suits dems better in 08- but of course it’s a totally different type of election- with a presidential candidate pitching an “agenda”- so to a large extent- the congressional races will be a “coat tails” affair..
Those who have been bitching, pissing, and moaning about dems (or goopers) not having a real agenda will get a chance to see what passes for an agenda in presidential politics.
May the best “agenda” win..
Clusterfuck may still be an issue- but he won’t be running- and all candidates will likely be running against him. Doubt if Iraq will be an issue- we’ll either be movin out- or all candidates will agree that it’s time to start movin…
Domestic issues will likely be front and center- which favors dems- if they don’t screw up between now and then.
Shez, you know, I think you could do just that, move heaven and earth.
Thanks for the correction above. Maybe I was unconsciously wishing 5 days of progressives meeting and scheming to take back this country. Okay, consciously wishing…
Close bold.
Alakazam!!
Oh, and fresh thread for everyone. But Swopa beat you to the zero. *g*
iowa christine @ 81
It’ll be interesting to see what kind of reaction he gets for poaching on Vilsack’s land.
TRex — I think you omitted the key part, “Super Twin Powers, ACTIVATE!!”
RT @
45
Absolutely right – and if attempts at all of the above get vetoed by Bush, which wouldn’t surprise me, then Mr. Pissypants will continue to drive his party into irrelevance and doom their electoral chances.
But no matter what he does, we gotta fix the voting problems tout suite.
Tom Friedman @ 108
Let’s see. The Republicans lie us into a disastrous war, mortgage our grandchildren to China to pay for it, trash the constitution, rig the vote, subvert Congress into a system that uses tax dollars to bribe elected representatives to pour more tax dollars into the pockets of the rich while destrong for profit the only planet we have. And that’s just the high spots. Oh, I forgot dragging the ideals on which the USA was founded through the mud at home and abroad by using assasination and torture as instruments of policy.
And you are saying that the Dems need to be watched to make sure thebehave in a grown-up manner? Thi is incrediblinsulting. I don’t think my languge is too strong when I say to you STFU and get stuffed.
HotFlash, I think you jumped the gun on poor Tom. He’s saying that revenge, pay-back, are not on the agenda because the Dems are grown-ups, not adolescents like the Rethuglicans. Clinton was payback for Nixon and look where it’s landed us.
Oversight, accountability, yes. But not blind-rage lashing out, even though they may deserve every lash.
Shez @ 126
Not kidding Rayne, Candace Miller needs to go. And Debbie S in 2012. Would like to talk to you about what to do re MI-10, I have some ideas but need background in whicvh I am sure you will have.
Can you contact me so we can phone talk some time soon?
CA-19: I wish we could find a worthy candidate to take down
Radanovich. He is corrupt, but stealth. Even the local paper endorsed his opponent (Cox) and called him “one of the do-nothingest of the do-nothing 109th.” The district is gerrymandered, but a strong candidate could win. After all, McNerney took outPombo, so it seems like we shoud be able to find a slayer forRandanovich. Congressional district in the foothills, anyone?HotFlash, sure, probably ought to get Shez in the loop, too, since she may have some resources that will help.
What’s the largest city in the district? Port Huron, Lapeer are there; is Sterling Heights part of the district?
Are you a member of DFA or a Justice Caucus member? And are you going to be attending the next state Dem Party convention? Would like to see how many folks we can get in sync with you.
And are you a MichiganLiberal.com reader?
Prof – As of Yearly Kos, if your wife is not an avid political followers, the museum and aquarium are wonderful. But as for the convention itself, with the success of last year and with our taking Congress, I suspect that many politcal types will be making their path to the convention. Personally, I would just like to meet some fellow dem/FDL travelers and attend some of the panels.
Consider it an educational sabatical.
NewDealFarmGirl – I live in Buffalo, just west of Minneapolis. I am taking the train. And Rayne, I am definitely going, and would also love to share a room. But no matter what, I am going even if I have a room in the outter burbs and cab in it every day.
Perfect.
Gentleman Jim @ 50
I hate to throw any water on the fire, but i’m not so sure things are all roses in the house. If you look at the Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) on a district by district basis, you’ll see that are 46 Dem House members in districts that lean Republican (and 25 at PVI 5 or greater) and only 13 Reps in Dem-leaning districts). In a year with a good Dem-wind blowing this isn’t a problem and of course incumbency helps, but in a less rosy year with the GOP dumping big bucks, this majority might not be as secure as it looks.
Of course, PVI isn’t the be-all-and-end-all, so take it with a grain of salt. IMO, the real trick is to use the 50 state strategy to move public opinion (rather than try to triangulate around existing opinion). Move the 5s to 4s or 3s, etc.
This Reality-based Math is what can be used to keep Joe Lieberman at bay. In two years, he may become a new symbol of what it means to be a lame duck … assuming (with good reason) that we have an even larger majority by then.
I know the witch from Maine is supposed to be untouchable because she’s so popular — but she should be a prime target. The Democrats don’t need to campaign against her — they need to campaign against the Number 2 Republican in the Senate — Trent Lott — for whom she will serve and vote with if the Republicans retake the Senate. I’m sure the good people of Maine aren’t likely to support a Mississippi segregationist for office — it’s just up to the Democrats to convince the people of Maine that a vote for Snowe is a vote for Lott.
Oregonians interested in helping to defeat Gordon Smith
and maybe doing so early should visit
http://gordonsmithdishonors.us
and join the recall mailing list there.