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CNN just announced their (grain of salt) exit polling asking voters "what was the most important issue" influencing your vote?
42% -- corruption in Washington
40% -- terrorism
39% -- the economy
37% -- Iraq (57% disapprove, 41% approve)
They also asked what mattered more to your vote -- national or local issues? 62% said national, 33% said local, 5% others. So it looks like the Democrats' attempts to nationalize the election and make it a referendum on Bush rule may have been successful. The only good news for the GOP would be that terrorism still charts, but the majority of the people polled felt that either party was qualified to deal with the problem, so it really didn't swing Republican. Finally, the issue that the GOP was really pimping -- "Nancy Pelosi will raise your taxes" -- didn't seem to have much traction.
Christy and TRex are on CNN right now at Tryst Cafe in DC (above), along with Atrios, Jeralyn Merritt and others. Atrios says that Glenn Reynolds will be joining by webcam. Feel the excitement.
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well go figure!!!!!
Hey, my lovely wife did an exit poll for CNN right here in Philly. Who knew? Guess we’re part of their sample after all.
well - when i think of this administration and it’s merry band of perps, corruption does come to mind (be it stemming from iraq, pages, contracts, or whatever..)
Wolf Blitzer is asking Bill Bennett if he feels that corruption is going to be an issue. Bill says he’d like to double down.
I don’t imagine Unca Karl is happy to see corruption on the minds of so many voters. I’m surprised it’s that big a deal.
Department of D’oh: I looked at the picture and realized that it’s Tryst, a coffee shop not four blocks from where I live!
How did CNN smuggle the exit poll information out of the Quarentine Room? Or are they part of the exit poll consortium?
terrorism ranking so high is a repub issue, but everything else there would appear to bode well for dems…!
please, let me break out the wine early tonight!!!
Reminder to everyone:
1. Vote.
2. After you vote, fill up your gas tank. I’m not saying gas prices are going to skyrocket as soon as the polls close, but I sure as hell don’t think they’re going to go down, so you may as well be on the safe side.
Um, those numbers add up to well over 100%. Are the Republicans fixing the exit polls, too?
omg TRex, please say hi to Pam Spaulding for me, I’m such a fanboi of hers!!
Hey, what happened to the Republicans’ “hot button” issues like abortion, gay marriage, flag burning, jaywalking, etc. What about them “family values.” Have the voters abandoned these very important matters to worry about petty stuff like war, corruption, etc. I can’t believe it.
Carville thought the question was phrased differently. “Do you think corruption is a major issue?”
The results to that question would be interpreted entirely differently.
The Beard is saying CNN isn’t going to release specific race exit polling, just these aggregate issue questions.
scory @ 6
The quarantine was lifted at 5PM EST. They and the other networks still are operating under their pledge not to call a race before the polls close, but they can talk about issues all they want.
ROFLMAO.
Exit polling on Senate (from America Votes):
Virginia (52-47)
Rhode Island (53-46)
Pennsylvania (57-42)
Ohio (57-43)
New Jersey (52-45)
Montana (53-46)
Missouri (50-48)
Maryland (53-46)
Republicans leading:
Tennessee (51-48)
Arizona (50-46)
JCWatts is the cutest Black GOPer. I know it’s a small pool to choose from, but there it is.
Jane Hamsher @
4
Jane FTW. As usual.
I saw today, for the first time in a few months, gas prices rising. I said to myself that today is the start of the price hikes. They couldn’t even wait until the elections were over.
Jane Hamsher @
4
I say “Throw that card counter outta the joint, Luigi!” Oops. If Bennett were smart enough to be a card counter, he could make a more honest living than the one he’s making.
BTW, Jane and crew - GOOD JOB keeping the toobz unclogged today!
Jane Hamsher @ 4
Late afternoon sip of latte almost–almost–lost. FDL has improved my spew control reflex!
Oh I am so nervous and I love those numbers Ms. Jane!
Jane at 16 - Holy Shit! Anything on Connecticut?
Take the AZ exit polling with a grain of salt, but don’t drink the whole margarita. AZ has had an very high percentage of early voting, and Pederson is leading in that.
Bennett: if Dems take the House narrowly (19-20) it’s a disappointment.
NOT TO ME, Bill !!
Here comes the expectations management game, bigtime.
“Everything is good for Republicans!”
JC Watts is the cutest Teddy.
Jane Hamsher @ 16
Tears in my eyes. Please be real.
Richmond @
23
Nyet.
…headed out to fill my tank.
Peterr @ 14 — thanks!
Frank Probst @
8
it’s already happening, and please forgive me for no cites, but i saw a few hours ago in some district (PAABA 2) that the price rose from $1.89 to $2.16.
Jane said:
Hmmm…they don’t list TRex over at CNN. The shame of it all. Downright discrimination against therapods!
The truth comes out - the MSM has an anti-therapod bias.
even those tennessee numbers are good if the early lead ford, jr. is supposed to have is true…
New GOP meme (courtesy Bennett): “2006 is a nationalized election, and it should be a nationalized election.”
They don’t want to talk about the districts where disgraced, resigned, rehabbed, wife- and mistress-beater, pedophile GOPers are on the ballot.
National election = W’s fault.
Watch this one grow this evening.
TeddySanFran @ 25
Yeah, thanks Adam Nagourney, ghostwriting for Republicans.
“For Democrats, Even a Gain May Feel Like a Failure
By ADAM NAGOURNEY”
I love those numbers too, Jane! I wish I were in the US to feel the energy… thanks for the updates - I hope lots of people check in!
You nailed that, Teddy.
angie @ 26
Are we looking at the same person?
I turn on CNN - wolfie - hoping to catch Christy and what do I see but the evil 4-some - Begala, Carville, Bennett and Watts. And below the picture of them is the banner “Democrats Lose?”
I need some meds.
Teddy:
So, given the new GOP meme (and your logical extension of it): when will rethugs begin calling for impeachment of our accidental president? ;)
You should have seen him run the option.
Sparkles the Iguana @ 38
Jane’s post
reminds me of the joke about the sports reporter giving the baseball scores without mentioning which team had how many runs. She must have been so happy that she forgot to put in the “Dems leading” header. Hopefully, the TN race is still margin of error. Can’t stand the thought of listening to nasal Bob Corker for 6 years, like corn-pone Fred Thompson for 6 years.
GrandmaJ @ 39
GrandmaJ, stop with the bad news….you’re KILLING ME!!
Still nothing up on the polls at Dredge. Must be really bad news for them!
From CNN:
Chelsea Clinton runs into voting problems
NEW YORK (CNN) — A famous political name does not guarantee hassle-free voting, as former “first daughter” Chelsea Clinton discovered Tuesday.
She turned up shortly after 6 a.m. at her polling site on West 20th Street — in the Chelsea neighborhood of Manhattan — only to be told her name was not in the voter registration books there, a voting official said.
It turned out the registration book for her district had been mistakenly sent to the wrong location, said New York City Board of Elections Executive Director John Ravitz.
She filed an affidavit vote — a paper ballot that allows election workers to confirm that a voter is properly registered after their vote is cast. If the voter is not registered, the vote is not accepted.
Teddy’s Proposed TradMed Talking Points for 11/7/06:
GOP keeps the House & the Senate = “Miracle, total endorsement of the GOP and Lord Bush’s War.”
GOP loses the House narrowly & keeps the Senate = “structural,” “nationalized” election. Noron spoke about this earlier, “since FDR (except Clinton) President’s party has lost seats in the midsecondterm election….”
GOP loses the House middling & Senate tie = same as above, plus some calls for bipartisanship (from Dems). Lotsa talk about how Cheney’s job suddenly got harder.
GOP loses the House big & loses the Senate = “Can Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid shed their partisan rhetoric to work constructively with the Preznit? Will liberal leaders now tack to the right to appease their new conservative base?”
Sorry Sparkles - will not grumble anymore. I WILL be positive, I WILL be positive, I KNOW that there are good people doing their best, and ….[repeat]
They replaced terrorism with social security a few minutes ago. Iraq war last on the list? I call BULLSHIT!
Jane Hamsher @
16
Oh hizell yeah! Macacawitz is goin’ down!
Does it seriously look like we’re going to pick up MT as well? whoa.
My sister was so proud to be able to vote against Santorum. “A vote for vaginas everywhere,” as she put it.
Well Sparkles, the few other ones are pretty lame in the looks department.
They all need re- education, though.
Those numbers look great overall. Kyl is probally leading Pederson here in AZ but I wouldn’t discount Pederson just yet, he picked up a lot of momentum in the last couple weeks. J.D. Hayworth could definatly be going down to D-Harry Mitchell. That one would feel VERY good.
Blogger bash comin up!
FIRST SET OF RAW DATA
Exit polls so far. All indicate DEMS in front.
va: 5
tn: tied
pa: 13
ri: 13
oh: 12
mt: 6
md: 10
nj: 6
Caveat: This is first round data. Numbers WILL change. Your results will vary. REMEMBER 2004.
That said, this is extremely good news and a good way to start the evening. I’m waiting for Connecticut.
GrandmaJ @ 39
Here dear Grandma - have a couple of Xanax from me to thee. xo
Caoimhin Laochdha @ 53
Source? link?
Just back from the court house. I didn’t get put on the jury, yay! Medical malpractice, civil case. This will be about a two week trial too according to the judge, whew! : )
GO DEMS!
Here’s hoping Christy gets a chance to show Mary Katherine Ham what a real redhead looks like (also Kyra Philips, but she may be too far into the hairdye for hope….)
I am so sorry that the “bigtime” lady rightwingnuts didn’t show. What’s a blogstock without Annthrax and Michelle?
Sorry folks,
I was at the bottom of the page. Just heard Jane’s numbers too.
Nevermind.
Will check to see if they were already posted next time.
cl
am i right in saying the polls close in kentucky in less than 10 minutes?
2 important house races there…
I would really rather not have the words “feel” and “excitement” in the same galaxy as “Glenn Reynolds,” thank you.
nice work on the tech so far, FDL backstage and technowizards. Much better than August 8th!
And never mind the part about webcams in that collection.
or three races in KY…
Peterr @
55
Mole at media consortium.
cl
TREX in the house!
If they’d asked me, I would have said I wanted to throw the dumbasses out of DC.
Guess they’d put that under the “corruption” column.
Check this out:
From NBC’s Mike Viqueira
NBC News received an unsolicited call today from an aide to a Senate Democrat who says that there is a movement afoot to deny Sen. Joe Lieberman the chairmanship of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee should Democrats take control of the Senate. The aide, who works for a Democratic senator now sitting on that same committee, cites Lieberman’s party apostasy, as well as his public consorting with known Republicans such as GOP Sen. Susan Collins, the current chair.
The aide says that there are others who share this sentiment, but calls to the Democratic leadership and another Democratic committee member yielded no insight into the insurgency. They hadn’t heard a thing about it. Lieberman, as top Democrat on the committee, would be in line to be chairman if Democrats take control and if Lieberman remains a Democrat — which he has said he’ll be if he wins tonight.
***UPDATE at 4:15pm ET*** Per NBC’s Ken Strickland, Democratic sources say there is no discussion of removing Lieberman for his current post on the Homeland Security Committee. “I don’t think the caucus would support it” even if there was a serious suggestion to do so, a source said.
[ http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/ ]
I spied a sauropod !
p-rex @
59
some, not all polls in KY close early.
CNN has live video of the Blog party coming up right after the commericial.
FDL’s grumpy Uncle Jack Cafferty sure has a twinkle in his eye on CNN. Wonder if he’s seen the exit polls?
I posted this comment earlier today. I thought it might be helpful. Election Day Republican memes to be aware of and to beware of. All of these I have heard at least once and some have already appeared several times in the media. See how many of these show up this evening in commentaries on the “meaning” of this election.
1) If Republicans lose, Democrats will become responsible for “Republican” failures.
Answer: Democrats will be able to exercise oversight. They should investigate Republican failures and stop Bush Administration excesses and overreach but they will not be able to clean up Bush’s messes as long as Bush is in power and can veto and obstruct their actions.
2) If Democrats win, it will be due to Rahm Emanuel, Chuck Schumer, and Establishment Democrats.
Answer: It was Howard Dean who pursued and put in place the 50 State Strategy of challenging the Republicans across the board. Schumer and Emanuel ignored many contestable races, came late to others, and recruited candidates who were far more conservative than they needed to be to win the race.
3) If Democrats don’t win big, they lose and the Republicans win by default.
Answer: If the Democrats win, they win, period. As with meme 1, this is the idea that everything is good for the Republicans: If they win, they win. Yet even if they lose, we are supposed to believe they win.
4) Both parties over read their mandate. So if Democrats win, they won’t have a “real” mandate. A variant of this is that voters are voting against Republicans but are not voting for Democrats so again, no mandate.
Answer: This is a restatement of memes 1 and 3 and contains the idea that if Democrats win it doesn’t count. How many times have you heard the media challenge the claim of a Republican mandate, real or imagined? I thought so. None of this stopped Reagan in 1980 from claiming a mandate even though the election was widely seen as a rejection of Jimmy Carter or George Bush behaving in a similar way in 2000 even though he lost the popular vote (and should have lost the electoral one as well).
5) If Democrats win and Bush reaches out to them, they should be willing to compromise. Variant: If Democrats win, it is time to be bipartisan.
Answer: The proof is in the pudding. Bush has spent the last 5 1/2 years rejecting any semblance of compromise and bipartisanship with Democrats. His basic philosophy remains “My way or the highway”, “You are either with me or with the terrorists”. Even those so-called compromises with Republican Senators: Arlen Specter on warrantless NSA wiretapping and Warner, McCain, and Graham on torture and military commissions have been essentially cave-ins to White House positions. They have been compromises in name only. If Bush wants compromise, he’ll have to do more than call for it. He will have to take the lead in actually doing it. Let him propose the compromises and let us see if they are real. OK, not holding my breath on this one.
Feel free to add other memes you have seen.
p-rex @ 58
nifty map here
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/
Richmond @ 44
Nice catch!
Woo Hoo - CNN just showed a quick pan of our stellar bloggers and caught a glimpse of Christy’s fabulous red hair! Coming up any minute.
wow, Hugh, you so rock!
TeddySanFran @ 61
Absolutely! The site’s still rockin’ and rollin’! The home page and comments are quick.
All right, call me ignorant, but:
If people are giving one answer, why is there a total above 100%?
p-rex @ 59
Polls in KY close at 6 PM, but the eastern half of the state is eastern time zone, the western half central time zone.
blog party on now
Hugh, thank you and did I ever tell you how smart you are and that you are a treasure?
Hugh:
If I were a Dem on the TeeVee, and some bubblehead made any such assertion, however remotely, I would say, “Why is everything a win for Republicans with you people. We won. Get over it.”
Shots of Jeralyn, TRex, and Christy on CNN.
Mad Dogs @ 69
Just showed both Christy and TRex. Way to go!
grs at 77 - Everyone knows that the Repugs don’t do real math. Where have you been? :-0
BTW high turnout in very rural NY….which generally means lots of repubs but if they are thinking coruption…..
laura @ 48
When they start claiming it’s death taxes, we’ll really know something’s hinky.
Aw man… No TeeVee here…
TREX AND CHRISTY ON CNN! :)
TRex and Christy on CNN!
not a peep about fdl but nice shots of t and christy!
Yeah! Firedogs! Christy’s blue sweater and red hair are very photogenic.
smart reddhedd turns to CNN camera, neglecting to alert the theropod!
woohoo!!
Christy looking great! It’s no wonder “Ms. MM” didn’t show up.
Hi Christy and T-Rex! I see you!!
grs @ 77
They are too used to deficit spending.
Poopyman @
66
My guess would be a Levin aide. Nice to see someone is at least thinking about freezing out Joey Short Ride.
Olbermann on Tweety now.
when dems win:
“look, everyone deals with failure in different ways. republicans are choosing denial. the democrats won.”
Thanks newspaperbrat - I just might need them. Or a large bowl of popcorn with TONS of butter on it - not good for the diet for great for the nerves.
I just saw Christy and TRex on CNN. Wooo Hooo!
angie @ 89
Hopefully someone will post some screencaps for us non-cable folks?
Hey… Why does CNN have a linkee for live coverage of Lieberman’s campaign HQ?
From CNN”S blog page, no FDL
Don’t get left behind. Check out some of the most popular political blogs on the Web.
• Andrew Sullivan
• Best of the Web Today
• The Blogging of the President
• BostonParty (official dem. convention blog)
• Daily Kos
• Democratic Party blog
• The Daily Howler
• The Drudge Report
• Eschaton
• George W. Bush (official campaign blog)
• InstaPundit
• John Kerry (official campaign blog)
• Kausfiles
• The National Debate
• Political Animal
• PressThink
• Real Clear Politics
• Red State
• Republican Party blog
• SpinSanity
• Talking Points Memo
T-Rex, your forehead looked very relaxed.
I don’t know whether to watch bloggers on CNN, or Olbermann on MSNBC. Does anybody have an idea how much face time the bloggers might get?
Hey Siun,
We’re getting dissed here.
Eeeeeeek!
Keith is announcing on msnbc NOW
LJ/Aquaria @ 102
For the same reason Fox News blatantly helped Lieberman campaign this morning when he showed up to vote.
egregious @ 106
neurophius @ 104
I know I’m not much up on the tube, but isn’t there a picture-in-picture feature out there…?
Hugh @ 70
Hugh, thanks for this. Its like going birding with somebody who really, really knows birds. Mr. HotFlash and I are going to a DemsAbroad election-watch here in Toronto at the Elephant and Castle (King and Simcoe). If you’re in TO, come on down. We will be on the lookout for these memes (such a fun word!), whenever we hear one we will holler out ‘Meme #4′ or whatever. A drink may also be quaffed (optional).
Remek @ 107
I know… I was being a smart ass. We really need an emoticon for that…
NJ GOP is setting the stage to protest Senate vote. They were just on the TV saying several polling paces had the new election machines woud not allow them to vote for kean. Also said Dems chained the door to their headquarters and broke keys in the locks.
must have very bad interal pols.
I have to choose between Keith and Christy/TRex. That is just cruel.
I have PIP and am online, it’ll drive you nuts. Ask my wife.
LJ/Aquaria @ 108
Just got home from work and every polling station was jamming. There is a church right down the street from work (Highlands County, Florida) and I have never seen so many cars, not even when they hold weekend services. It is a great sign.
I’m not happy with the rate of leakage from the exit polls. Hrrmph!
Hope
Hope is the thing with feathers
That perches in the soul,
And sings the tune–without the words,
And never stops at all,
And sweetest in the gale is heard;
And sore must be the storm
That could abash the little bird
That kept so many warm.
I’ve heard it in the chillest land,
And on the strangest sea;
Yet, never, in extremity,
It asked a crumb of me.
–Emily Dickinson
I need a glass of wine. Good luck to us all tonight.
Freaking Ron Silver is being called “star power,” for Lieberman by NYC news.
gotta go puke now
I just cannot deal with watching cable TV right now. Too stressful. *think of bunnies* *think of bunnies*
Updates from people watching TV are very much appreciated.
Hugh at #71:
Point number 2 seems likely to be confirmed early and in spectacular fashion in Indiana. Blood-red state where Schumer couldn’t find anyone at all to run for the Senate, and yet the Dems could pick up 3 or 4 House seats. Certainly if the Dems win seats in Nebraska, Kansas, Idaho, etc., that would show who was responsible for the big win.
Of course, if political ideas were influenced by logical disproof, we’d not have a guy with a hosueplant’s IQ in the White House.
ron silver is a first-class has-been