Chris Cillizza's analysis in the WaPo is on the money this morning.  (Yeah, I know — talk about sentences you weren't expecting to see.)   It follows the analysis that Bob Geiger did last week, and other analysis that has been popping up on individual races all over the place the last few weeks.  Everything that I am reading and hearing from inside the various campaigns matches up pretty well with the rankings that he has for Cillizza's Fix Line this morning.   Control of the Senate is going to come down to very few races, assuming that Menendez holds New Jersey (which is looking increasingly likely at the moment): 

– Pennsylvania:  where Casey is leading in every poll I've seen, and the RNC supposedly pulled out funding last week, which says they don't believe in Little Ricky's chances either…awwwww.  (Schadenfreude hotline…)

– Ohio:  where Brown is leading as well, and the RNC allegedly pulled out funding in the past coupla days, although word is that they bought an additional week of ads on the way out the door.  Brown's "people versus the powerful" line is brilliant for Ohio politics right now.

– Missouri:  I've seen polls putting McCaskill up by as much as 4 points, but I haven't seen anything solid since the last debate.  This one is going to be a nailbiter, but I think Claire is running a very smart race and I'd have to give her the edge at the moment.  But this is one of the states that will be soaking up that RNC funding.  Here's hoping the DSCC has something to match it, along with the DNC.  GOTV is going to be critical here, so if you live there, please get involved.  Now.

– Tennessee:  Ford is running a good campaign, against a fairly solid opponent, who has only gotten better as time has gone on.  This one really will be down to the wire, but thus far Ford has stayed on message for TN voters, so we'll see if that is enough.  This is one I've been trying to keep an eye on, so if any TN readers have some info, please share in the comments.  Also, GOTV will be critical here as well, so please help out.

– Rhode Island:  Whitehouse is a great candidate, and Chafee really has to go.  His moderation schtick is exceeded only by his spineless ability to cave when he is pressed by scary Karl Rove.  (He's like Arlen Specter, with even less spine.  Pathetic.)  And I just cannot stand that any longer.  We need a real Democrat in this seat, not just some GOP wannabe, no matter how nice Lincoln Chafee may be in real life, it is time for him to go.  Whitehouse's numbers look good, so I'm hoping that will be the case.

– Montana:  Go Tester.  GOTV is going to be crucial to a win here, so please help Jon kick some Conrad Burns boo-tay.

– Maryland:  What may be my favorite line in weeks, Cardin's got a winner with "Michael Steele: right for Bush, wrong for Maryland."  Everything that I have seen puts Cardin ahead.  GOTV gang. 

One of the things that jumped out at me after reading Cillizza's analysis was that he reinforces the idiocy of the Allen campaign regarding the lame-ass comment that Jim Webb made about women and the naval academy.  Sure, it was a stupid thing to say.  Sure, it would have been better if he'd kept his mouth shut rather than shooting it off — but have you looked at George Allen's record of making an ass of himself lately?

Here's the thing:  women are not stupid.  Any woman who has ever been in a relationship with a man — sexual, working, or otherwise — knows that sometimes, stupid things are going to come flying out of their mouths.  (Women aren't exactly exempt from this, either, you know…)  But women also know that it is a real man who can stand up, learn from his mistake, and then try to rectify it by actually DOING the hard work to make it better.

The fact that George Allen thinks we can't see this is insulting.  The fact that he thinks women are too stupid to see through his attempt at manipulation?  Well, that just pisses me off.  Especially coming from Sen. Macaca, whose history of saying dumbass things is a helluva lot longer than any of us ever wanted to know.

Why do Republicans insist on accusing their opponants of the very poor behavior they, themselves, exhibit?  Is it some sort of GOP "I know you are, but what am I" reflex that they teach them at summer camp?

Webb has hit back on the issue with an ad that I think is pitch perfect — women, who worked with him at the Pentagon and elsewhere, talking about what Webb actually DID while in the Navy.  So, here's something I'd like to ask George Allen:  what have you done for women's issues?  Have you supported workplace daycare?  Maternity leave that doesn't leave a woman out of the running for a management position?  Real equity in pay for the same work/same job?  Do you believe that a woman's place is in the House — and the Senate?

You want to play this game, Sen. Allen?  Honestly?  Because women don't just want a bunch of airy pandering, we want results.  We don't have time for anything else, between feeding our family, taking care of the house, working two jobs, throwing a load of laundry in, tracking our budgets down to the last penny, clipping coupons, sticking to our diets (again, dammit), and trying to squeeze in that ten minutes of "me time" between the evening bath ritual, story time and more laundry. 

Oh, and one more thing:  chicks vote.  Let's all try to remember that when we legislate — because we are going to be watching all of you like a hawk.

One last thing, Bob Geiger has some other analysis of an Esquire magazine article that is worth a read this morning.  And Chris Bowers at MyDD has another great update on House polling that is well worth a read and then some.

Please help get out the vote.  Because we have all damn well had enough.