This quote is taken from Zogby International site. I am feeling more upbeat but still this quote has merit.

Redistricting has become so sophisticated, and our state leges so pliant about gerrymandering that I don’t see any chance for a 30-seat swing in our favor.

I’ll settle for 17 seats and control of the House. The Senate is a much tougher nut to crack at this point. Thirty-three seats are up, and we need to gain six to get control. That means we have to run the table on all the competitive races and avoid surprises in our solid races.

I hope that public disgust with twelve years of Republican corruption is high enough to allow us to run the table. But I’m not sure it is.

I want to believe that Foley’s exposure was the straw that broke the camel’s back. But I don’t believe it was. I think it took a sex-based scandal to grab people’s attention. All the important stuff (Abramoff and pay-to-play, the complete lack of congressional oversight on one of the worst Administrations in US history, etc.) is viewed as politics-as-usual. I don’t understand why John and Jane Public accept this as politics-as-usual, but they seem to. So the scandals don’t gain traction like they should.

BC

I agree with you, BC. I’m not confident that the Democrats will control the House by much – if at all. And I don’t see the Senate falling into Democratic party control.

The Foley saga certainly has made inroads by capturing the attention of casual voters and making them shake their heads in disgust. However, it’ll likely only make a big difference in the congressional districts of Hastert, Reynolds, and Foley. What resonates more with voters on the street is how gas prices have gone up dramatically while our government has given subsidies to the oil companies (with their record profits). What also resonates is that Osama is still on the loose, more men and women die every day in Iraq and Afghanistan, and our government has been ineffective in keeping us safer (think North Korea, Iran, and let’s not forget the anthrax attacks).

What I’ve found works best with people who almost always vote Republican is to talk about how unilateral control can corrupt. Most people don’t trust government, and the idea of one party controlling everything makes them slightly uncomfortable. When you tie this to:

1. the billions spent in Iraq (and the billions unaccounted for),
2. the fact that most 9/11 commission recommendations have not been implemented,
3. that the intelligence failures leading to 9/11 have not been investigated fully to ensure that our intelligence is accurate,
4. Congress giving huge subsidies to oil companies like Exxon/Mobil while they make multi-billion dollar quarterly profits (and they donate money to many Republican congressional members), and
5. the latest sex scandal and coverup,
… then you can tap into the distrust of the GOP being in control of all branches of government.

With this line of logic, I’ve convinced several loyal GOP voters that it’s time to get more Democrats into the House and Senate this fall. America can’t afford to let the Republicans continue to run amok with unchecked, absolute power.

What he shall have to concoct is going to be a Doozy, so keep your hats on tight.

Peterr #102 — I’m very aware how sensitive this is. But I can also see how the politics of the local churches are tearing up the African-American vote, and it ultimately hurts every single one of the African-American community members.

I’ll give you an example drawn from real life:

– There are 5-plus African-American Baptist churches in this community of 200K, of which less than 50K are African-American.

– There are at least one Methodist and a couple odd-denominational churches in the African-American community as well.

– Each pastor vies to be a bishop and amass a larger congregation under their reach; bishops are the titular heads of these communities, cutting across precincts and districts, but invisible to the secular community and to the largely white (but segregated by economics and geography) community. The Bishops are generally accorded more respect and deference than elected officials in these sub-communities.

– The African-American community had 5 primary candidates running for the same state office in a district that runs across a geographic (and racial) boundary; each candidate “belonged” to a different church, although they may attend more than one church.

– The largely white community within the same district had 1 primary candidate running for the same office.

Guess which candidate won the primary in a district in which whites and African-Americans are nearly even in number? (African-Americans may actually outnumber whites this year because of urban flight.)

Guess how the vote will be played by Republicans?

It’s playing out, a worst-case scenario, right under our noses. All that is needed is more money in the way of donations to clinch it.

And everybody is tippy-toeing around it instead of talking about it openly.

No pastor or bishop is going to want to be put on the spot or go on record, but if the congregants aren’t aware of the dynamics and are too busy trying to make ends meet they will miss this just as they did in the primary.